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Tracking Covid-19 Apr 3 . . . are we peaking (for this wave)?

As we continue to track, let some graphs tell a story, first up is Euro-CDC: That looks like a peaking, certainly it is not exponential surging in new cases. World in Data, on a 3-day, rolling avg will smoothen, highlighting key countries (including the USA): That looks like a flattening, trending to turning over on the driving impulse. Let’s see doubling times, which will track comparable exponential growth: Those were in the 2 – 3 day band previously. Now, the by country log-lin deaths, with the same 2,3,5 day doubling time rays since five cases as previous: Likewise, per country log-lin cumulative cases, with the same usual 2,3, 5 and 10 day doubling time from 100 cases rays: We see Read More ›

Eric Holloway: What’s hard for computers is easy for humans

We often hear that what’s hard for humans is easy for computers. But it turns out that many kinds of problems are exceedingly hard for computers to solve. This class of problems, known as NP-Complete (NPC), was independently discovered by Stephen Cook and Leonid Levin. Read More ›

Human evolution changes dramatically—again!

The long article behind the paywall refers to the “increasingly outdated concept of what constitutes a species,” “just one of dozens of competing definitions.” Increasingly outdated and uncertain, yes. But remember, the Darwin revolution was about—wait for it!—On the Origin of SPECIES. Read More ›

Eric Holloway: The Turing test is unscientific

Holloway: This test for intelligence, the Turing Test, was invented by and named after the mid-twentieth century computer pioneer Alan Turing. It is a subjective test in that it depends on whether an artificial intelligence is capable of convincing human testers that it is a human. But fooling humans, while impressive, is not really the same thing as actually possessing human-level intelligence. Read More ›

“The whole nine yards” cough-sneeze game . . . is 6 ft social distance enough?

Yes, it is gross but necessary. Sorry in advance. The question of social distance is back on the table, at least according to the UK’s Daily Mail (reporting today on Dr Fauci’s nuanced answer to a question . . . and no, this isn’t Babylon Bee spoofing on April Fool’s Day): Illustrating, i/l/o a 2014 study — early progress of a super-sneeze or cough: Notice, the drifting cloud? Here’s MIT, in 2014: The next time you feel a sneeze coming on, raise your elbow to cover up that multiphase turbulent buoyant cloud you’re about to expel. That’s right: A novel study by MIT researchers shows that coughs and sneezes have associated gas clouds that keep their potentially infectious droplets aloft Read More ›