Here are the winners: Bantay at 10 comes first for providing a detailed timeline. In theory, someone could come back and check this later. That’s what counts with a prediction: Future checkability.
#2 vjtorley at 18 for a detailed theory of prediction which I am sure readers will find interesting (also note link at 19. I heed markf’s comment at 23 re ID’s future under those circumstances and CannuckianYankee’s comment at 21 that the Tories will be forever in office in Canada if Torley’s mentor is right. (Disastrous for everyone here, especially the Tories, for a government to be in power for centuries. )
#3 Rob Sheldon at 22 and following, for linking to issues around astrobiology.
#5 Mapou at 30 for interesting comments on the genetics issues.
Okay, here’s the deal: Anyone who wishes to claim a prize must provide a mailing address (used for no other purpose) at email@example.com Mail from Canada could be slower than a speeding shaving cream pie, but the impact is usually more pleasant. Thanks all, and watch for next contest.
You wanted to know my own views on the timeline issue? Here they are:
I give Darwinism 25 years. I would have given it 50 years, but cut that in half due to the impact of the Internet.
See, 25 years ago, the Wistar meetings showed that Darwinism was mathematically impossible.
Nothing happened then because tenured mediocrities and Darwin lobbies were well entrenched in their entitlements, and there was no way for most clear thinking and well-meaning people to understand what was wrong. Today, forced to fund mediocrities fronting nonsense, people can far more easily know that it isn’t a good investment. They can find out 24/7 how bad an investment it is.
That’s got to matter sometime, and possibly it will start to matter within my lifetime. I’m 61.