From Ethan Siegel at Forbes:
This is true for all types of probabilities! So the next time something unlikely happens, or you realize that something very unlikely must have already occurred, remember that no matter how unlikely it is, the odds of it happening weren’t infinitely small. Its existence, just like our existence, already disproves that possibility! More.
Siegel attempt to marshall Bayesianism to make his case that vanishingly small odds make no difference. But, of course, it isn’t the odds of single events that we must consider, but the odds of complex patterns, not always dependent on each other.
Nice try, of the kind that traditional media robotically sponsor. Can readers imagine the uproar if someone argued for the opposite view?
See also: Is Bret Stephens right about progressives and science? Possibly, the enraged ex-Times readers are too young to recall the era when newspapers routinely published non-editorial board opinions on the op-ed page.
Re odds, in real life, Robert Marks on new evolutionary informatics book – not Darwin-friendly
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