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Is Darwinism an “Empty Theory”?

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At Evolution and News, there’s a link to a 2017 article tackling the problems of inflationary theory in the field of cosmology. What I find so interesting is the second to last paragraph in this six page article. Here’s how it reads:

A common misconception is that experiments can be used to falsify a theory. In practice, a failing theory gets increasingly immunized against experiment by attempts to patch it. The theory becomes more highly tuned and arcane to fit new observations until it reaches a state where its explanatory power diminishes to the point that it is no longer pursued. The explanatory power of a theory is measured by the set of possibilities it excludes. More immunization means less exclusion and less power. A theory like the multimess does not exclude anything and, hence, has zero power. Declaring an empty theory as the unquestioned standard view requires some sort of assurance outside of science. Short of a professed oracle, the only alternative is to invoke authorities. History teaches us that this is the wrong road to take.

Is he talking about Darwinism? No, about the “multimess” as he calls it. In the meantime, here we have a high-powered scientist telling us that a theory that lacks “explanatory power” is a theory that “excludes” very little. We have said here for years that Darwinism can accomodate ANYTHING; and, hence, it “explains” NOTHING. It is, to quote the author, an “empty theory” that “invoke[s] authorities” to keep it as the “unquestioned standard view.” Most compelling is his final thought: “History teaches us that this is the wrong road to take.”

How many more “epicycles” have to be trotted out by the scientific monopoly that is evolutionary biology before we get off this ‘wrong road’? We already have had too many.

Comments
Dogdoc
What exactly do you mean when you say chaperone proteins are intelligent agents
my bad, ...i agree, these are only intelligently designed molecules, doing things for a purpose ... designed by an intelligent agent...martin_r
January 17, 2022
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dogdoc @21
my point was just that there is nothing in ID Theory that excludes the possibility of code with junk in it. (Also, it isn’t just sloppiness that produces dead code – as I mentioned, non-functional code is often placed in a program as a “stub”, in anticipation of future functionality. And a super-intelligent programmer might indeed be planning for future function that we can’t even comprehend now!)
i, as a mechanical engineer with a decent IT background can only agree with you ... a common computer script/code is full of non-functional code (e.g. remarks/comments) ... Moreover, i would like to add, that i as an engineer can also imagine, that the genome/DNA works as a read/write storage in contrary to read-only storage. There is a very old senior biologists James Shapiro (University of Chicago, an evolutionist) who published lots of papers on read-write genome. So i am pretty sure, IF there is some 'junk' in our genome, IF ... it is a result of intelligently designed read-write process (plus, ever heard of horizontal gene transfer ? it is when various species sharing chunks of DNA code) The problem with biologists like R Dawkins is, that they never made anything, they don't understand how things work ... People like R Dawkins are the last ones qualified to talk about any design ... No wonder, that recently deceased "Darwin of the 20th century", American biologist E.O. Wilson, called Dawkins a journalist :))))) E.O.Wilson:
There is no dispute between me and Richard Dawkins and there never has been, because he’s a journalist, and journalists are people that report what the scientists have found and the arguments I’ve had have actually been with scientists doing research https://www.theguardian.com/science/2014/nov/07/richard-dawkins-labelled-journalist-by-eo-wilson
martin_r
January 17, 2022
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Martin_r,
actually, there are intelligent agents busily folding them up … ever heard of chaperones ?
Well yes I have, and those are part of the mechanistic process that I've been referring to here (it's a lot more complicated than just the action of these proteins of course). But why would you call these proteins "intelligent agents"? I would have to guess that most people would balk at attributing "intelligence" to a molecule, but maybe I'm wrong. What exactly do you mean when you say chaperone proteins are intelligent agents? Or perhaps you're joking?dogdoc
January 17, 2022
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dogdoc @21
We now know a lot about the mechanics of how proteins fold, and it isn’t random, and there are no intelligent agents busily folding them up in our cells either.
actually, there are intelligent agents busily folding them up ... ever heard of chaperones ? from wikipedia: Chaperone proteins participate in the folding of over half of all mammalian proteins. In molecular biology, molecular chaperones are proteins that assist the conformational folding or unfolding and the assembly or disassembly of other macromolecular structures.martin_r
January 17, 2022
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ET,
What possible observations are excluded by ID theory? 1- Blind and mindless processes producing a living organism 2- Blind and mindless processes producing a coded information processing system, like the genetic code which has mRNA codons representing amino acids
Well, no, if we observed a mindless process producing a living organism or a code, then ID would simply claim that the mindless process was itself the product of intelligence. (see my note to nonlin @21). For another example, computers can learn to generate novel, highly complex artifacts, but ID generally dismisses this as being the result of the human programmers rather than mechanical intelligence. (As an aside, why isn't our ability to program seen as simply the result of our intelligent designer, rather than of our own intelligence?)
Then we discover no, it is actually accomplished mechanically, by means of a process of which we previously had no understanding.
Then ID is falsified!
I provided an example of this @21, where highly improbable structures are generated in some previously unknown way which has now been elucidated as a mechanistic process.
Scientific inferences are tentative and rely on the knowledge of the time.
This is of course true, but my point was that you can't justify a claim that "no mechanical process" can possibly be responsible for something, because we know for a fact that we do not understand every possible mechanical process.dogdoc
January 17, 2022
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Dogdoc:
What possible observations are excluded by ID theory?
1- Blind and mindless processes producing a living organism 2- Blind and mindless processes producing a coded information processing system, like the genetic code which has mRNA codons representing amino acids
Then we discover no, it is actually accomplished mechanically, by means of a process of which we previously had no understanding.
Then ID is falsified! Such is the nature of science. Scientific inferences are tentative and rely on the knowledge of the time. The science of today does not and cannot wait for what the science of tomorrow may or may not uncover. The science of tomorrow is just as likely to confirm the science of today.ET
January 17, 2022
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Nonlin,
As far as protein folding, that is an act of intelligent design given that the laws of nature themselves are either random or ID products.
Okay, say we observe some phenomenon - like some complex functional biological system - which appears unlikely to occur randomly, and you conclude that necessarily this was intelligently designed. Then we discover no, it is actually accomplished mechanically, by means of a process of which we previously had no understanding. This should convince you that we can't simply rule out mechanism when we observe highly improbable phenomena. But instead, you conclude that whatever created the foundational environment in which this phenomenon occurred must have itself been intelligently designed. And presumably, if we discovered that the environmental elements which permitted the phenomenon were themselves the result of yet another mechanical process, you would simply declare that whatever caused that process was intelligent - and so on, all the way back to the laws of nature. If that's your position, then you'll need to just limit your "intelligence OR randomness" claim to whatever created the laws of nature, and concede that any worldly phenomenon we observe may have a direct cause that is mechanical but currently unknown. As for figuring out how the laws of nature came to exist, I'd say that's currently well beyond the purview of empirical science. Certainly the postulation of a multiverse did not simply arise as a ploy to avoid ID; you may (or may not) want to look into the history of that idea a bit. Personally I'm of the belief that we don't really have any way to know how or why the universe began, or why it is the way it is.dogdoc
January 17, 2022
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DD, Glad you agree on "evolution". There's another aspect to that as they always have a vacuous "evolutionary" explanation of everything and its opposite in biology. That's probably why some claim it is an empty theory. As far as protein folding, that is an act of intelligent design given that the laws of nature themselves are either random or ID products. And they cannot be random for two reasons : 1. All origin-known laws are products of ID 2. The only proposed random laws would be in an untenable and totally fictional multiverse scenario. Untenable because its only basis is the desire to exclude ID from science. Also because the laws of nature are believed, well, universal which forces all other hypothetical multiverses to be integers (unitary) as well. Meaning governed by universal laws as well. But that would be unnatural, wouldn't you agree? If one were to imagine a multiverse, it would make more sense to imagine it as a continuum.Nonlin.org
January 17, 2022
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KF, For the last time, the question I've posed was prompted by PaV in the OP, and it is this: What possible observations are excluded by ID theory? You clearly have no answer to the question, and should have just said as much.dogdoc
January 17, 2022
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DD the evidence is you misunderstand and construct caricatures based on misrepresentations of ID by critics that have elected to distort willfully in the face of correction. You were directed to the resources tab. As for low explanatory power, the design inference is just the opposite of your characterisation, and opens up a new and more reasonable paradigm. Observe, language and algorithms in the core of the cell and where that takes OOL for instance, given the ideological imposition documented by Monod, Crick and Lewontin etc. KFkairosfocus
January 17, 2022
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Pav: why should be accept that an Intelligent Agent who is vastly more intelligent than we can imagine would be this sloppy? If everything was front loaded, it may be more efficient, or was just plain easier to develop, to allow some unused "code" to exist in a genome when it's not actually needed for that genome. --Ramram
January 17, 2022
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PaV: It doesn't really matter who said what when; my point was just that there is nothing in ID Theory that excludes the possibility of code with junk in it. (Also, it isn't just sloppiness that produces dead code - as I mentioned, non-functional code is often placed in a program as a "stub", in anticipation of future functionality. And a super-intelligent programmer might indeed be planning for future function that we can't even comprehend now!) Still, I can see that evolutionary thinking could easily lead biologists to jump to the conclusion that junk DNA was a useless byproduct of trial-and-error. Also, I could be wrong but I think there have been several examples of mutations that appeared to be responsive to an organism's needs in a particular environment. That would indeed discount Darwinian theory - but only because Darwinian theory excludes that possibility! Nonlin.org: I agree that evolutionary theory fails to explain our observations, but again, that goes to my point that it is because evolutionary theory is not completely empty, but actually excludes some possibilities. I disagree strongly that there are only two possible options, viz. intelligent design and randomness. Think of the protein folding problem. Until relatively recently, it appeared impossible for a long polypeptide chain to quickly fold itself into a functional tertiary structure by searching through huge numbers of possible configurations and finding the functional structure purely by random chance. But of course it doesn't: We now know a lot about the mechanics of how proteins fold, and it isn't random, and there are no intelligent agents busily folding them up in our cells either.dogdoc
January 17, 2022
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"Evolution" is not an empty theory but a failed one. It does predict gradualism, divergence of character, abiogenesis, disunity of life, fitness, selection, random benefic mutation, etc. All demonstrably false as shown. Intelligent design is opposed by the complementary randomness, not by "evolution". And randomness is the easily rejected null hypothesis everywhere in biology. Also as shown. And of course, complementary means there is no third option.Nonlin.org
January 17, 2022
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DogDoc:
But I remember reading something years ago, before function was discovered for that DNA, where someone was arguing that Junk DNA was completely consistent with an Intelligent Designer: If you look at computer code, which is obviously intelligently designed, there is often a lot of code that is “dead” or “junk”.
It would be helpful if you knew who it was that was arguing in this way and what year it happened. That said, yes, "computer code" is "obviously intelligently designed," by humans. But is there any human being alive who can write computer code for something that can fly through the air, build nests, lay eggs and so reproduce? No. So, why should be accept that an Intelligent Agent who is vastly more intelligent than we can imagine would be this sloppy?
There are branches of programs that cannot execute, sections that have been commented out or stubbed for future work, and so on. So even in the case of Junk DNA, ID does not really exclude the possibility at all.
When the search for "coding DNA" began, EB's expected that 25-30% of the genome would be functional, meaning that 75% would be "junk." But the more they were able to experiment, this number finally went down to 10%. That's one sloppy designer. Meanwhile, I personally, and plenty before and after, said that "genes" are simply part of the "materials list," while so-called junk-DNA was the "blueprint." It was another successful prediction and completely antithetical to EB thinking. I won't bore you with an experiment I suggested be done and the results of which, based on ID thinking, I predicted; but I turned out to be right--a complete body-blow to Darwinism. What happened turned out to be more "Lamarckian" than Darwinian and really the predictions came from my reading of Richard Goldschmidt's "The Material Basis of Evolution," written in reaction to R. A. Fisher's "The Genetic Basis of Evolution."PaV
January 17, 2022
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Interesting responses, thank you everyone. PaV: I've heard about the Junk-DNA issue, yes. But I remember reading something years ago, before function was discovered for that DNA, where someone was arguing that Junk DNA was completely consistent with an Intelligent Designer: If you look at computer code, which is obviously intelligently designed, there is often a lot of code that is "dead" or "junk". There are branches of programs that cannot execute, sections that have been commented out or stubbed for future work, and so on. So even in the case of Junk DNA, ID does not really exclude the possibility at all. Barry: In your example, a SETI researcher posits an intelligent source behind the signal, rather than random chance or necessity. You say that theory "excludes" the latter explanations. But the exclusions that the OP talks about are of a different sort: The issue raised in the OP is not about forgoing one explanation in favor of another, but rather that a theory must exclude possible observations in order to have explanatory power. As PaV stated in the OP, any theory that can accommodate anything actually explains nothing. So, in your example, an intelligent source may choose to send prime numbers, or to send random numbers, or to send no signal at all. Any observation regarding signals can be explained by the "intelligent source" hypothesis, just as (almost) every observation in biology can be explained by "evolution". I see this as a problem for both theories. KF: You suggest I've confirmed my want of understanding, but I think I understand this topic well, and I certainly can't see how I'm setting up any straw men arguments here. You keep talking about the design inference, but as I've made clear, I am not talking about that. I am discussing the point raised in the OP, which is that any theory that fails to exclude possible disconfirming observations has low explanatory power.dogdoc
January 17, 2022
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DD, kindly note this from 6 above:
It is not by empirical observation of such FSCO/I coming about by blind chance and/or mechanical necessity — that would instantly shatter the design inference — but by ideological lockout, that the design inference on tested, observed sign has been excluded.
KFkairosfocus
January 17, 2022
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DD, you may find the brief clip on confirmation theory here, from Swinburne, helpful at 102 level: https://uncommondescent.com/ethics/lfp-48i-dallas-willards-partial-list-of-reasons-for-the-unwarranted-disappearance-of-moral-knowledge/ KFkairosfocus
January 17, 2022
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darwinism = lots of lucky accidents and always in right order ...martin_r
January 17, 2022
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BA, quite so, and directly connected to the Infinite Monkeys result. KFkairosfocus
January 17, 2022
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DD, you inadvertently confirm your want of understanding. As a simple indication on point, if ever it were actually observed that by blind chance and or mechanical necessity without intelligent action over 500 - 1,000 bits of functionally specific information arose, the design inference would fail decisively. That inference is about a causal process, intelligently directed configuration, and not about a designer. The strawman tactic game continues. KF PS, here is an inadvertent test, the results of which are conceded against known interest by Wikipedia's editors [and without acknowledging plainly, the significance]:
The infinite monkey theorem states that a monkey hitting keys at random on a typewriter keyboard for an infinite amount of time will almost surely type any given text, such as the complete works of William Shakespeare. In fact, the monkey would almost surely type every possible finite text an infinite number of times. However, the probability that monkeys filling the entire observable universe would type a single complete work, such as Shakespeare's Hamlet, is so tiny that the chance of it occurring during a period of time hundreds of thousands of orders of magnitude longer than the age of the universe is extremely low (but technically not zero) . . . . The theorem concerns a thought experiment which cannot be fully carried out in practice, since it is predicted to require prohibitive amounts of time and resources. Nonetheless, it has inspired efforts in finite random text generation. One computer program run by Dan Oliver of Scottsdale, Arizona, according to an article in The New Yorker, came up with a result on 4 August 2004: After the group had worked for 42,162,500,000 billion billion monkey-years, one of the "monkeys" typed, "VALENTINE. Cease toIdor:eFLP0FRjWK78aXzVOwm)-‘;8.t" The first 19 letters of this sequence can be found in "The Two Gentlemen of Verona". Other teams have reproduced 18 characters from "Timon of Athens", 17 from "Troilus and Cressida", and 16 from "Richard II".[27] A website entitled The Monkey Shakespeare Simulator, launched on 1 July 2003, contained a Java applet that simulated a large population of monkeys typing randomly, with the stated intention of seeing how long it takes the virtual monkeys to produce a complete Shakespearean play from beginning to end. For example, it produced this partial line from Henry IV, Part 2, reporting that it took "2,737,850 million billion billion billion monkey-years" to reach 24 matching characters: RUMOUR. Open your ears; 9r"5j5&?OWTY Z0d
A mere factor of 10^100 short.kairosfocus
January 17, 2022
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Dog:
I then added that a theory which offers an unspecified “Intelligent Cause” as an explanation suffers from the same problem, and asked what possibility such a theory might exclude.
A SETI researcher receives a signal that repeats the first 30 prime numbers over and over. He proposes a theory to explain the data that offers an unspecified “Intelligent Cause” as an explanation. His theory excludes random chance, mechanical necessity and any combination of the two as an explanation of the data. It is also almost certainly correct.Barry Arrington
January 17, 2022
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There isn't any scientific theory of evolution.ET
January 17, 2022
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DogDoc: Darwinism did, indeed, exclude something: so-called "Junk-DNA," which evolutionary theory described as a kind of "dark matter." Yet, Intelligent Design said that this was not probable, that there is clearly information contained in DNA and that an intelligent agent would include this information for a purpose. ID turned out to be right, and EB (evolutionary biology) to be wrong. So, it's not true that ID does not exclude possibilities. And, unlike EB, it can make predictions--that actually turn out to be true.PaV
January 17, 2022
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KF: I read your reply, but you don't seem to be addressing the point I made. The OP was about how evolutionary theory was empty because it failed to exclude possibilities: "The explanatory power of a theory is measured by the set of possibilities it excludes." I agreed with the OP that theories with insufficient sets of excluded possibilities do not constitute good explanations, and agreed that it was a weakness in evolutionary theory (even though there are possibilities excluded by evolution). I then added that a theory which offers an unspecified "Intelligent Cause" as an explanation suffers from the same problem, and asked what possibility such a theory might exclude. I don't think you answered that question. For example, could an Intelligent Cause cause a lizard to give birth to (hatch) a bird? Or could it take 200 million years to gradually transition from reptilian ancestors to modern birds? I don't see why not. Anyway, I'm sure there are plenty of other things to discuss about Intelligent Design Theory, but I'd prefer to just stick to this particular point: Like evolutionary theory, ID Theory appears empty in the way the OP suggests because it doesn't exclude any possibilities.dogdoc
January 16, 2022
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first of all, the theory of evolution as it is, is absurd in the highest possible degree .... No wonder, that this theory has been developed by a bunch of natural science graduates, romantics, who never made anything ... this is a fact... these guys never made anything, these guys just telling romantic/naive/absurd stories about how the most sophisticated design/technology created by itself from nothing ... these romantic guys and their theory ignores everything what engineers learned so far ... including a cave man engineer (to design an axe also requires engineering skills, so the axe works as it suppose to work ) ... these romantics just don't care ... they infested the whole world with their crazy absurd theory and are happy with it ... and scientists from other fields of science just watching ... I just wondering, when and how this Darwinian craziness will end ...martin_r
January 16, 2022
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PS: Here is Monod [a Nobel Prize winning pioneer of molecular biology who wrote the highly influential Chance and Necessity], on the ideological imposition: https://uncommondescent.com/atheism/monods-objectivity-naturalistic-scientism-and-begging-big-questions/ Key clip, from an interview shortly after his book came out and caused an international sensation:
[T]he scientific attitude implies what I call the postulate of objectivity—that is to say, the fundamental postulate that there is no plan, that there is no intention in the universe. Now, this is basically incompatible with virtually all the religious or metaphysical systems whatever, all of which try to show that there is some sort of harmony between man and the universe and that man is a product—predictable if not indispensable—of the evolution of the universe.— Jacques Monod [Quoted in John C. Hess, ‘French Nobel Biologist Says World Based On Chance’, New York Times (15 Mar 1971), p. 6. Cited in Herbert Marcuse, Counter-Revolution and Revolt (1972), p. 66.]
There is no good reason for that imposition, which is question-begging.kairosfocus
January 16, 2022
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DD, you are clearly unfamiliar with ID, and have bought into a very familiar sounding strawman caricature. I suggest, first [though you are likely a recycled trollish objector . . . we expect responsible behaviour], that you scroll up and examine the items under the resources tab, including how actual ID advocates understand ID and the weak argument correctives. You are hereby advised that the design inference is drawn after TWO defaults, - one, that an event or entity E is caused by lawlike mechanism [broken by high contingency on similar initial conditions] - two, that the highly contingent E is caused by chance process [broken by exhibition of patterns or signs maximally implausible on chance, e.g. functionally specific, complex organisation and/or associated information, FSCO/I]. For example, consider a coin that is dropped, it reliably falls under gravity. Next, consider a string of 500 coins, which exhibit a binary distribution as they tumble and settle in H/T patterns by chance. But if we were instead to detect a 500 bit [~72 character] ASCII coded message, that would be FSCO/I a strong sign of design. That is the design inference does not seek to detect any and all cases of design but seeks to identify with maximal plausibility, strong cases. As it turns out, the living cell has in it 4-state coded information that in key parts functions algorithmically to assemble proteins. The information content greatly exceeds 500 - 1,000 bits, exhibiting great complexity and a pattern that shows language [code] and goal-directed stepwise process [algorithm] which are strong signs of design. As for high contingency, that is obvious from even something as simple as mutation. Where, in a world with trillions of actually observed cases of cause of such FSCO/I, it has universally been by design. The empirically warranted inference is that the D/RNA in the cell is a result of design, intelligently directed configuration. It is not by empirical observation of such FSCO/I coming about by blind chance and/or mechanical necessity -- that would instantly shatter the design inference -- but by ideological lockout, that the design inference on tested, observed sign has been excluded. As can be shown. KFkairosfocus
January 16, 2022
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News: "We have said here for years that Darwinism can accomodate [sic] ANYTHING; and, hence, it “explains” NOTHING." I think this is pretty close to true, but not entirely true. If we observed an organism of one species give birth to one of a new species, that would falsify Darwinian evolution. Or if we had clear evidence of Lamarckian macroevolution, for example. But yes, these unlikely scenarios notwithstanding, Darwinian evolution can be stretched to accommodate way too many data - it excludes little. Obviously, though, Intelligent Design Theory is even worse in this regard. There is literally nothing I can think of that would be excluded as a possibility under ID. What, after all, is an undefined "Intelligent Cause" incapable of producing?dogdoc
January 16, 2022
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Jerry@2 I think that another additional reason "humans (don't) have the eye sight of a hawk, the speed of a cheetah, the strength of an ape, etc." is that these capabilities inevitably would change the intricate set of inherent tradeoffs in the engineering design of the human body. Tradeoffs that in a lot of cases settle for an optimum combination of good far vision and excellent close vision, maximum burst running speed versus endurance, etc.doubter
January 16, 2022
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Polistra: I'm lost. What do you mean that we don't need theories? Maybe you're being facetious.PaV
January 16, 2022
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