Researchers: “profound yet intuitive: Every species has evolved backup plans”

PeterA, Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) is NOT "brainstorming". You start with a Functional Specification for the System and "decompose" the higher level functions ("transmit and receive radio signals") into subfunctions for subsystems (e.g., the Power Supply "supplies power"). You then GUESS (normally from field experience) how the system can fail and assign a REQUIRED Mean Time Between Failures to the components to use as a Shopping List (find me a 120 volt, 5 amp, direct current power supply with a 10,000 hour MBTF). You can then "trade" MTBFs with the subsystems as long as the calculated system meets the specified system MBTF. Sometimes a component also CAN do things that are irrelevant to the system (um, it includes a "FAIL" warning light, but the component will be sealed inside a cabinet). So, I went to Spares Selection meetings where the engineers were SUPPOSED to have already finished all the MTBF studies. But when I would point out that the system was only required to operate 1,000 hours per year and the advertised MTBF was 10,000 hours, so I wasn't recommending ANY spares at the operating site, the Engineers would routine say crap like, "Oh, well, the MTBF is crap, so we need at least 2 or 3 spares for every installation." (based on "gut feel" "just to be safe") A war story, my mom came and stayed with me for a few months, and one evening after dinner she saw me typing away on my genuine IBM PC-1 with a green-black monitor. So she says quite innocently, "Is that homework for a class?" And without thinking I replied, "No, I'm trying to spend 150 million dollars." To which she replies, "Oh, that's nice." And I stop and turn away from the PC to clarify: "I'm trying to SPEND 150 million REAL dollars." And she walked away confused. So I spent decades crunching numbers that NOBODY cared about, methodologies be damned. Ya make a wild guess, add 10%, get somebody in contracts or accounting to accept it, and then wait and see how things work out. Then you throw away the spare you never used (because the MTBF was actually MUCH higher than advertised) and beg for more money to buy spares for the crap that has an actual MTBF of 100 hours. vmahuna

Vmahuna, In those brainstorming meetings did you apply RV+NS Principles to reach the solution? :) PeterA

There are surely a dozen reasons why these "back up plans" don't make sense from an Evolutionary point of view, but they are sure signs of Irreducible Complexity. That is, just my guess, but wouldn't any half-baked back-up system ENSURE DESTRUCTION? I mean, wouldn't any intermediate system ATTACK cell processes that WORK? Just sayin'... I would point out that I spent MANY years attending meetings about Failure Modes and Analysis for DoD systems. And the FIRST thing you do is describe, in GREAT detail, what the system is REQUIRED to do in normal operation. And THEN you start listing all of the ways in which the proposed design would AUTOMATICALLY ("naturally") "fail over" into one of the alternate modes of operation. But you do NOT get an Auxiliary Generator just by Chance. vmahuna

Es58, The department of quality assurance handles that kind of issue. :) PeterA

When do they get the ability to do the testing during development to make sure the backup plans work? es58