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45 experts tell us when AI will think like people – and they’re all over the map

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It’s almost as if we’re missing something:

Architects of Intelligence: The truth about AI from the people building it (2018) compiled by futurist Martin Ford (23 experts) and Possible Minds: Twenty-Five Ways of Looking at AI (2019), compiled by John Brockman (25 experts) offer a total of 45 experts foretelling our future. Some experts, Rodney Brooks (Rethink Robotics), Judea Pearl (UCLA), and Stuart Russell (UC Berkeley), were interviewed for both books, which is why the number sums to 45, not 48.

The major disagreements among contributors to both Architects of Intelligence and Possible Minds (2019) are the classic ones: Whether AI will have human-like intelligence and/or wipe us out. And yet, as a reviewer of both books notes, the essayists seem haunted by the specter of another “AI winter” when advances hit a ceiling and stall, perhaps for decades.

Software engineer Brendan Dixon notes that “Roughly every decade since the late 1960s has experienced a promising wave of AI that later crashed on real-world problems, leading to collapses in research funding.” He offers some context … “Artificial Intelligence: Prophets in Conflict” at Mind Matters News

See also: What Are the “Architects of Intelligence” actually designing? Even their polite disagreements are fairly substantial. But future apocalypses offer a hidden benefit: Whether they ever happen or not, they distract us from critical thinking about present-day issues.

and

Possible Minds?: But What If the Minds Are IMpossible? Suppose we actually can’t create thinking AI? How would THAT change the world? What if human-like AI turns out to be impossible because reasoning is not calculation and calculators do not reason?

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One Reply to “45 experts tell us when AI will think like people – and they’re all over the map

  1. 1
    FourFaces says:

    Christians and ID supporters are mistaken about AI. But then again, so are Darwinists, materialists and atheists. Not only will we have human-level artificial intelligence in the not too distant future, it will come from the one place that nobody expects: Christianity. Intelligence does not have to be conscious. It’s just cause and effect. There is no reason we cannot build a robot that can walk into a generic kitchen and prepare a breakfast of sausage with scrambled eggs, coffee and pancakes. Will robots be conscious? Of course not. It takes both a soul and a body to be conscious.

    Why do I say that true AI will come from Christianity? Because the secret of intelligence (among other things) has already been given to the faithful in the form of occult (metaphorical) scriptures. It’s hiding in plain sight. Just saying.

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