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California v. Florida: COVID-19 Response and Results

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Much has been written about

In this article, Keith Carlson compares California (first in the nation with drastic lockdown measures that are not yet lifted) with Florida (lockdown started two weeks later and is already easing). This is the summary:

  • California’s population is 39.5 million, Florida’s is 21.5 million.
  • The average age in each state is: California, 36Florida, 42—Floridians an average of six years older.
  • As of April 23, California had 33,261 one cases and 1,268 COVID-19 deaths;
  • Florida had 27,869 cases and 867 deaths. Meaning, 0.08 percent and 0.1 percent of those states’ populations were infected.
  • California’s death-per-infected rate: 3.8 percent, Florida’s: 3.1 percent, with an equally small percentage of each state’s population having died, less than 0.005 percent.
  • California’s 39.5 million people are spread out over 163,696 square miles, Florida’s 21.5 million are over 65,755 square miles—thus, California has 241.3 people per mile, Florida has 327.
  • California’s restrictions started on March 19, Florida’s two weeks later on April 3. California’s peak resource date was April 13, Florida’s was earlier, on April 12. According to IHME forecasts, both states had substantially more hospital and ICU beds than needed.

As of April 16, California (first with the stay-home order) had lost 2.8 million jobs (7 percent of the entire state), New York 1.2 million (4 percent of the state), yet Florida just 654,000 (2 percent of the state.) 

Comments
Barry,I honestly couldn't have told you to the governer of California was before reading your comment. I don't think I've ever commented on any political issue here (apart from saying the ysfunctional plotics of the US fills me with dred for my American friends).orthomyxo
May 5, 2020
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As had been pointed out a number of times, most people who die from influenza do not have flu named on their death certificate (partly because most are not tested for flu). This is why the number of flu deaths is always given as a range, estimated from excess mortality in winter and the proportion of deaths ascribed to pneumonia. This year is not very different from others in the total number of deaths assigned directly to flu in the CDC numbers. The CDC covid-19 total runs behind other counters because it is collated from death certificates, not deaths reported by regional public health authorities. It takes (at least) several weeks to do this collating.orthomyxo
May 5, 2020
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The CDC model is off. It only shows 5886 influenza deaths this year. Influenza is deadlier than this and kills 56,000 Americans on average every year. Deaths with Pneumonia and COVID-19 is listed as 17,122, which is what happens when someone has a severe reaction to COVID-19. It targets the lungs on a weakened human. It lists the total COVID-19 deaths as 38,576, which is less than influenza's average. Influenza deaths should be around 30,000 by this time of the year. You cannot have that kind of drop in influenza numbers. There is no way less than 6000 Americans have been killed this year from influenza. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm?fbclid=IwAR0wfA4zAAtfKDpq6BwMN0I5XP7VR21rzO_q2kc5ZNPMVka2u3OywD9LJB8BobRyan
May 4, 2020
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Fasteddious
This suggests that the rules for these two groups should be quite different. The younger people should get back to normal life while staying away from old people.
Exactly. This is what I said in a post on April 26:
History will record the one-size-fits-all economy-destroying COVID-19 lockdown of 2020 as one of the most colossal public policy blunders in the history of the world.
Meanwhile, orthomyxo's hero, lockem-down-or-lockem-up California Governor Gavin Newsom thinks the answer is to make criminals out of young healthy people who want to got to the beach.
Barry Arrington
May 4, 2020
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Analysing the COVID-19 data for Ontario and Quebec up to May 3, one finds some startling statistics: - 90% of the people who have died so far from COVID-19 were over 70 years old - around 75% of the people who have died were residents in long-term-care facilities - people over 80 years old with COVID-19 have a 22% chance of dying from (or with?) it - an 85 year old with COVID-19 is more than 200X likely to die from it than a 30 year old. Clearly, COVID-19 divides the population into low risk (younger) and high risk (old or chronically ill) populations. This suggests that the rules for these two groups should be quite different. The younger people should get back to normal life while staying away from old people. The old people should self-isolate and be very careful until a proven vaccine becomes available. Those between 50 and 70 can decide for themselves which population they belong to.Fasteddious
May 4, 2020
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Tammie Lee Haynes: You do NOT need universal testing to determine the number of people infected. You just need a few competent scientists, using polling methods. That's assuming the average person is competent diagnosing themselves! That's especially a problem considering how many infected people are asymptomatic. But being asymptomatic does not mean they can't infect someone else. Require staff to live in the nursing home (or in a room at similarly quarantined hotel), working 70 hour weeks Monitor them with an ankle bracelet. Fire them if they leave the quarantine, even once. Why would the staff member accept this? You pay them a fat bonus of, say, $10,000 for each month they comply. Fat bonuses, that’s how you get guys to work in Saudi. Would you work in a nursing home with those conditions? What if you had a couple of young children? Can anyone explain why our Public Health Scientists haven’t recommended them? Violations of current labour laws?JVL
May 4, 2020
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You do NOT need universal testing to determine the number of people infected. You just need a few competent scientists, using polling methods. Take a presidential election The gallup poll can predict the vote, within 3%, by sampling 800 people. They did that in 2016, and said that Mrs Clinton would get 53%. She got 51%. Plus or minus 2 or 3%. If that's not good enough to understand how many got infected, pleae tell us why?TAMMIE LEE HAYNES
May 4, 2020
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Meaning, 0.08 percent and 0.1 percent of those states’ populations were infected. California’s death-per-infected rate: 3.8 percent, Florida’s: 3.1 percent, with an equally small percentage of each state’s population having died, less than 0.005 percent.
In the absence of universal testing having been carried out for some time we just don't really know how many are infected but asymptomatic or only mildly symptomatic, so these statistics are very suspect. It appears that the true deaths per infected rates must be considerably lower. If this reasoning is correct, as time goes on the rates should decline, as a higher and higher percentage of the states' populations are tested. The aspect of this that is most alarming is whatever the statistic is that measures the deaths per infection rate for the elderly with compromised immune systems and preexisting heart and lung conditions (those with such conditions are a large percentage of them). This death per infection rate is many times that for the younger and healthier, so COVID-19 can be seen as the revenge of Darwinist evolutionary forces on the weak and unfit who up to now have been artificially protected from the ravages of the natural order. They are being culled out. It appears that the stay-at-home and social distancing policies can only be a short-term alleviation of the process. It only postpones the inevitable, the eventual infection of the great majority of the population, including the elderly, and the consequent selective decimation of the most unfit elderly. The only things that may partially alleviate this savage and inevitable process is development and wide-scale application of therapeutic drugs that lessen the severity of the cytokyne storm mechanism, and/or an effective vaccine. Given the inept and hide-bound response so far in this country (in terms of the protocols used in clinical care especially pre-hospitalization), the chances of that don't seem very great.doubter
May 4, 2020
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Most of the deaths are with old people, especially those in nursing homes. Two suggestions. 1) Follow South Dakota's lead. Their restaurants never closed. They only mandated "stay at home" , for people over 65. Its silly to quarantine those who are at little risk. 2) Keep coronavirus out of nursing homes, intelligently How? Don't let infected people in. Even today, staff members commute daily from the community. In New York and Boston, by subway. The CDC in its coronavirus guidelines and checklists for nursing homes mandates training in hand sanitizer use. But leaves the commuting of staff unmentioned. That's insane. How do you do it? Require staff to live in the nursing home (or in a room at similarly quarantined hotel), working 70 hour weeks Monitor them with an ankle bracelet. Fire them if they leave the quarantine, even once. Why would the staff member accept this? You pay them a fat bonus of, say, $10,000 for each month they comply. Fat bonuses, that's how you get guys to work in Saudi. Can anyone think of a problem with these suggestions? Can anyone explain why our Public Health Scientists haven't recommended them?TAMMIE LEE HAYNES
May 4, 2020
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Simple explanation. The governors who are pushing hardest and longest for total war are total killers. They are enjoying this, and will not stop their own enjoyment voluntarily.polistra
May 4, 2020
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I suspect that some of the difference is medical community culture and how willing and able someone is to record or report a cause of death as Corona-19 vs Something Else. It probably ranges from haphazard to inconsistent to stingy and everything else in between and beyond. Its not like there is a sensor to detect Cause of Death. To relate this to Climate Change, it reminds me of manually recording temperatures. After the fact, you 'll be able to read whatever you want into the numbers and adjust up or down. The Dog's Breakfast of Science these days. Andrewasauber
May 4, 2020
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And then we see this - CDC site United States 37,308 Covid deaths as of May 1 https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm?fbclid=IwAR0wfA4zAAtfKDpq6BwMN0I5XP7VR21rzO_q2kc5ZNPMVka2u3OywD9LJB8buffalo
May 4, 2020
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