Uncommon Descent Serving The Intelligent Design Community

Darwin’s Big Mistake – Gradualism

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The big mistake in Origin that Darwinists won’t admit is gradualism. Darwin explained that according to his theory we should expect to observe a continuum of living species each with only the slightest of variations between them. He postulated that we don’t observe this because the fittest species take over and the insensibly slight variants die off leaving species that are fully characteristic of their kind which then makes possible taxonomic classification by those characters. It’s in the full title in the latter half “The Preservation of Favored Races”.

That left Darwin with explaining the fossil record which is indisputably a record of saltation. Species in the fossil record appear abruptly fully characteristic of their kind, persist unchanged for an average of about 10 million years, then disappear as abruptly as they appeared. Darwin explained this away by saying the fossil record was incomplete and that when it was more fully explored the insensibly small variations that cumulatively led to the emergence of new species would be apparent. One hundred fifty years of fossil hunting later has not revealed what Darwin thought it would reveal. Some still say the fossil record in incomplete. Stephen Gould’s candid admission (“the trade secret of paleontology” is that it fails to support the very theory it is based upon) and formation of the theory of punctuated equilibrium is perhaps the most famous attempt to salvage gradualism.

No Darwinists I know or read give saltation any credence. The reason why is because saltation implies front loading. How would one species change in just a few generations to something taxonomically different? All the new characters that distinguish the new species must have been present in the predecessor if they were expressed that quickly. Random mutation & natural selection, through a tedious trial and error process, takes a very long time to generate novel characters. Indeed this insufficiency is at the very core of Intelligent Design. Haldane’s Dilemma is alive and well. Only an intelligent agent has the capacity to plan for the future. Intelligent agency is proactive and that proactivity is what distinguishes it from RM+NS. RM+NS is reactive in that it can “learn” from past experience but it can’t plan for future contingencies which have not been experienced in the past.

My position, which has remained unchanged for several years, is that phylogenesis was a planned sequence. Common descent from one or a few ancestors beginning a few billion years ago has overwhelming evidence in support of it. Gradualism however does not have overwhelming evidence. Gradualism in evolution survives to this day because the only alternative to it is intelligent design. Gradualism doesn’t survive by the weight of the evidence but rather by the tightly held belief in philosophic naturalism held by an overwhelming number of the practioners of evolutionary biology. As Richard Dawkins famously wrote “Although atheism might have been logically tenable before Darwin, Darwin made it possible to be an intellectually fulfilled atheist.” These people are clinging to gradualism like religious dogma because to say it’s wrong is tantamount to giving up their religion.

Comments
Timothy, If a checkers program can anticipate future moves and figured out the Pythagorean theorem and how to cook a steak dinner, then it would be actually acquiring knowledge that it didn't have before. The programmer has already programmed it to play chess.Clive Hayden
January 20, 2009
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tribune, If a checkers program can anticipate future situations and react accordingly, surely it is acquiring knowledge. Of course, to apply such mystical attributes to a procedure--a mere list of instructions--is sheer silliness.Timothy
January 20, 2009
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Thanks for your answer, tribune. I'm still in search of that consensus, or at least a common denominator.R0b
January 20, 2009
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See that, ROb. There is all sorts of consensus on the question :-)tribune7
January 20, 2009
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Pardon my thick skull, but I don’t understand what that has to do with the question of whether the app itself is an intelligent agent. OK, sorry. My direct answer is no. Intelligence -- as per the dictionary definition -- requires the ability to acquire knowledge. That app is never going to know more than what the programmer gives it, nor does it have the freedom to go beyond what the programmer allows.tribune7
January 20, 2009
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R0b,
If Gil’s checkers app can anticipate future game situations and choose its moves accordingly, is it an intelligent agent?
Yes. However, a program cannot anticipate anything. (Imagine that the program's code has been printed out and that you were to play a game of checkers according to the code.) This becomes particularly obvious when a flaw in the programmed strategy is discovered that allows you to program your victory. Surely after losing a hundred times in a row to the same set of moves, the program ought to be able to anticipate and counter them.Timothy
January 20, 2009
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tribune7:
The point your missing is that the app could ONLY have been designed by an intelligent agent.
Pardon my thick skull, but I don't understand what that has to do with the question of whether the app itself is an intelligent agent.R0b
January 20, 2009
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If Gil’s checkers app can anticipate future game situations and choose its moves accordingly, is it an intelligent agent? The point your missing is that the app could ONLY have been designed by an intelligent agent.tribune7
January 20, 2009
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DaveScot: Only an intelligent agent has the capacity to plan for the future. I'll ask again the question that I asked in a previous thread. If Gil's checkers app can anticipate future game situations and choose its moves accordingly, is it an intelligent agent? And yes, I know that the app was designed to do this, but that doesn't change the fact that it does it. If a product of design can't be an intelligent agent, then where does that leave us?R0b
January 20, 2009
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Off-topic: I ran across this paper and it seemed to me that an information system/code-based algorithm had outperformed (by a large margin) gene ontology predictions based on supposed evolutionary histories and similarities. http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/sites/entrez?db=PubMed&cmd=retrieve&dopt=Abstract&list_uids=17646340William J. Murray
January 20, 2009
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Common descent from one or a few ancestors beginning a few billion years ago has overwhelming evidence in support of it.
However ALL evidence for said common descent (UCD) can also be used as evidence for common design. And until someone can demonstrate that the physiological and anatomical differences can be accounted for via genetic changes universal common descent does not deserve to be called "science", as it is nothing more than speculation based on the assumption.Joseph
January 20, 2009
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There's a recent article in nature about how plants use a historically retroactive process of quantum collapse to "decide" what scaffolding pathway to use for an energy conduit during photosynthesis, giving the process a 95% energy efficiency rating (as opposed to an 80% energy efficiency rating for designed power cables). There was another observational collapse experiment that demonstrated retroactively altered results could be achieved. Julian Barbour, in "the End of Time", proposed that the universe was a "full set" of everything that could exist in potential state, with frame sequences activated by consciousness, and historical pathways were determined by the nature of the observer "collapsing" quantum potential. It all sounded very esoteric at the time, but these recent experiments lend some support to his ideas. If humans exist at a certain point X in space-time potential, then what humans observe is a collapsed set of potentials that supports, contextualizes, or "explains" their existence. Just like the above experimental results, this would "choose" a history that is efficient to our exitence, regardless of how wildly unlikely it is for that history to have sequentially occurred, because it didn't have to **actually** sequentially occur. This would also explain what we see in the evolutionary record, and what we see as a finely-tuned universe.William J. Murray
January 20, 2009
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Seversky Darwinism already doesn't have enough time without you consigning all of the evolutionary change to relatively brief periods of time.Jehu
January 19, 2009
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Here is a timely column in Newsweek about Lamarckism making a comeback as an alternative it Darwinism. http://www.newsweek.com/id/180103
Some water fleas sport a spiny helmet that deters predators; others, with identical DNA sequences, have bare heads. What differs between the two is not their genes but their mothers' experiences. If mom had a run-in with predators, her offspring have helmets, an effect one wag called "bite the mother, fight the daughter." If mom lived her life unthreatened, her offspring have no helmets. Same DNA, different traits. Somehow, the experience of the mother, not only her DNA sequences, has been transmitted to her offspring.
Interesting stuff.Jehu
January 19, 2009
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The main problem with gradualism, besides the fact that there appears almost nothing in the fossil record leading from one species to a new one with novel complex capabilities, is that each step along the way is viable. You will be shown a suite of fossils from a forrest animal to a whale but where along the way is their a gradual presentation of the unique characteristics of the whale? After all the whale is a little different from a forest animal. Also each step is theoretically a way point for more than one new path. So the progression from one species to a completely new one would theoretically leave a trail of thousands of intermediaries and lots of dead ends as many of the paths branched off and came to an end with no new progression. So theoretically some of these should be available in the fossil records and I assume that some of them may be. But are any available with the novel complex capabilities. There also appears to be none present in the current world. Where are all the dead ends, they don't have to be extinct, and where are all the intermediaries, they do not have to be extinct. We just cannot assume that for every viable species that exists that all its predecessors are now extinct. That is just too convenient. In truth there are tens of thousands of examples of progressions in the current world of different species but they are all micro evolution and most likely are devolution or the generation of smaller gene pools from larger gene pools in the past. And this is not what Darwin envisioned. He envisioned an upward evolution of species not a downward devolution to more restricted gene pools caused by environmental changes and migrations. There are no upward examples in the current world or else we would never hear the end of it from the Darwinists. I can just hear the panting at Panda's Thumb. Tell them about this, tell them about this. Well someone who goes to Panda's Thumb, come tell us. There appears to be only devolution in our current world and this is what Darwin saw on the Beagle but mistakenly extrapolated the wrong way and that is why we are forever in this needless debate. By the way such a phenomenon as devolution is predicted by evolutionary biology. It is only assumed that along with this devolution there is real upward evolution and the creation of new characteristics.jerry
January 19, 2009
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Gradualism always fails for me with the supposed evolution of the bat from a rodent like mammal. Why would webbed digits convey an advantage to a rodent, and why would that particular deformity repeat itself time and again resulting in larger webs and longer digits? Not to mention that it would have to be a number of genetic errors working in conjunction, providing the correct musculature, blood vessels, etc. And then to top it all off finally the creature would miraculously be aerodynamically sound. Have you ever noticed that no one has attempted to depict a half bat-half rat creature hanging on a tree trunk? Nor has anyone depicted what the ancestors of the flying reptiles looked like, it's only birds. Also, in both cases, the fossil record says no.Davem
January 19, 2009
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Someone has observed that no matter how slow and gradual evolution appears to us, speed up the film by a certain amount and it looks like life appearing instantaneously. So which is the correct perspective - ours, or a speeded up one.JT
January 19, 2009
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Severesky, I don't care about the semantics of the word "gradualism" or word "rapid" one iota. The point is does the original Darwinist model of RM+NS fit the data. I fully admit I do not study the data enough by myself to have a opinion from first principles. But I always have to ask myself, why is it that Stephen J. Gould even postulated "punctuated equilibrium" if the fossil record confirms gradualism. Its like the proposal of the "multiverse". The very fact that scientists who study these things feel the need to propose the multiverse in order answer to the amazing fortunate coincidences of the privileged planet, make me believe that there is abundant evidence for design -- even as there is abundant evidence that RM+NS just does not quite answer the questions of life.JDH
January 19, 2009
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One question that should be clarified is whether by "gradualism" you mean 'proceeding by small, incremental steps' or 'proceeding at a constant rate'. As I'm sure most here know, Darwin wrote in Origin of Species:
Although each species must have passed through numerous transitional stages, it is probable that the periods, during which each underwent modifications, though many and long as measured by years, have been short in comparison with the periods which each remained in an unchanged condition. These causes, taken conjointly, will to a large extent explain why—though we do not find many links—we do not find interminable varieties connecting together all extinct and existing forms by the finest graduated steps.
In other words, he recognized that evolution need not proceed at a constant rate, that there could be periods of stasis or near-stasis punctuated be periods of relatively rapid change. The difference between this and the Punctuated Equilibria proposed by Gould and Eldredge may be more a matter of emphasis than a real difference. Darwin stressed the gradual nature of evolution because he needed to impress upon his readers how large changes could emerge from the accumulation of small, incremental steps over vast spans of time. Gould and Eldredge stressed the episodic nature of evolution because they needed to reconcile the theory with what is revealed by the fossil record. Both, however, would have agreed that "rapid" is a relative term since even the periods of rapid change took place over anything from hundreds of thousands to tens of millions of years. The apparently abrupt appearance of some species could simply be an artefact of the the very coarse-grained image provided by the fossil and geological records. It simply doesn't have the resolution to show the fine detail of the gradual changes that may have occurred.Seversky
January 19, 2009
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"The reason why is because saltation implies front loading." There are other possibilities for saltation besides front loading. If someone from MIT develops a new species in the lab and then places it in an environment, that would be an example of saltation. If some intelligence in the past, placed a population with a diverse gene pool into an earthly environment, that wold also be a saltation.jerry
January 19, 2009
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