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Intelligent design: Do the “unfalsifiables” get along with the “falsifieds”? If so, WHY?

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Now and then I am assailed by people who insist that “intelligent design is not falsifiable.”

Well, put that way, it isn’t, right?

Politics, economics, and religion are not falsifiable either. Anything can escape falsification if it is put in broad enough terms. That’s because we all have overlapping – but not identical – definitions of what these abstractions mean.

However, specific ID hypotheses such as Mike Behe’s irreducible complexity, Bill Dembski’s specified complexity, and Guillermo Gonzalez’s privileged planet hypothesis can all be falsified by showing that the condition that cannot exist according to the theorist’s postulates does in fact exist.

So a specific hypothesis is – of course – falsifiable. That’s a key part of what a hypothesis is: A statement so specific that its contrary would falsify it.

But now here is something I would really like to know: Do people who claim to have falsified various intelligent design hypotheses ever get angry with the people who claim that intelligent design hypotheses are not falsifiable?

What I mean is, presumably, the “unfalsifiables” are depriving the “falsifieds” of a legitimate victory. But do we ever hear any complaints from the latter?

Or do both groups actually not care which claim is made because it doesn’t really matter to them, as long as one or the other – or, better still, both at the same time – is believed by nice people who want to be thought well of?

In that case, getting the nice people to believe both at the same time would be ideal because it shows trusting, unreasoning acceptance. No one need worry that those people will think for themselves any more. After a while, the cognitive effort would be just too great. And studies will show that they can’t actually do it.

Also, today at the Mindful Hack:

Is emotion really a better guide than reason in religious matters? 

The Spiritual Brain reviewed in Jesuit thinkmag America

Is there a rock solid Religious Right vote in the United States?

Neuroscience and religion: Key medical journal prints thoughtful article

Comments
As a Christian evolutionist (I believe that evolution does and did happen and that most of it was engineering by God over millions of years), I am getting tired of the incessant materialist/atheist accusations that my religion is not falsifiable (testable). I think that falsifiability is a legitimate demand and that we should not be afraid of it. I also think that it is time that we Christians fight back. I conduct research in Biblical metaphors (e.g., the book of Revelation) and I have excellent reasons to suppose that the Bible contains amazing scientific knowledge coded as metaphors. Don't laugh. Please read what follows. Based on my interpretation of various Biblical metaphors, I am able to make a couple of precise predictions regarding the human cerebellum (among other things). My predictions (see link below) go against the current consensus among neurologists who maintain that the cerebellum contributes to speech production. I am claiming that it does not. I believe that a careful inspection of cerebellar pathways will corroborate my claim. I realize that I cannot depend on the scientific community to help me test my hypothesis. My question is, how does one go about getting a prediction of this sort tested in the lab using an actual human brain and, more importantly, how much will it cost? http://rebelscience.blogspot.com/search/label/cerebellumMapou
January 9, 2008
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DaveScot, in 21, commented "I’d like to see a day when chance & necessity can be tested in controlled conditions to see if it can generate the novelty and scale of change that had to occur for bacteria to morph into ballerinas. I’m not holding my breath. ..." That may be sound advice. But, your reply still misses what I think is an appropriate direction of study. That is, an investigation of the probabilities that are the bases of ID. Probabilities don't necessarily take "billions of animals" or "50 years" to study. They may because of technical limitations, but that isn't because of the nature of studying probabilities. Studying the probabilities that make the edge, or that are the bases of the explanatory filter, isn't quite the same as studying the broader issue of chance and necessity.Q
January 8, 2008
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Q I'd like to see a day when chance & necessity can be tested in controlled conditions to see if it can generate the novelty and scale of change that had to occur for bacteria to morph into ballerinas. I'm not holding my breath. The theory that chance & necessity accounts for the origin and/or diversity of life is unverifiable science fiction with nothing of real substance or merit behind it. The emperor has no clothes. ID is an attempt to falsify it. If it can't be falsified then it doesn't even deserve to be called a science fiction but rather just historical fantasy. The only demonstrated way to create novel complexity even remotely approaching that which comprises the nanomolecular machinery of life is through the purposeful actions of intelligent agents.DaveScot
January 8, 2008
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selectedpete Walter Remine has been collaborating with John Sanford (Cornell geneticist; inventor of the Gene Gun). I correspond with both of them and highly recommend Sanford's book "Genetic Entropy" for comprehensive treatment of issues surrounding Haldane's Dilemma. The only notable bone I had to pick with Sanford was the background mutation rate he cites which is an order of magnitude or more than is usually given in the literature which leads to orders of magnitude faster increase in genetic entropy. I quite agree with the conclusion that genomes are undergoing decay but I don't agree with the short timeline as Sanford makes it out to be so short that nothing could escape extinction for very long and I'm quite convinced that life has been present on the earth for at least hundreds of millions of years.DaveScot
January 8, 2008
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DaveScot said, in 18, "I’m sorry if what was observed doesn’t comport with the theory you place your faith in. " Dave, what I said, back in 8 was "I’m looking forward to advances that test the probabilities that are the bases of several claims in ID." If testing can ever be performed, I look forward to it. If testing can never be done, well, that leaves observation and inference.Q
January 8, 2008
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Q You aren't going to conduct any controlled experiments that last 50 years, span continents, and include billions of large mammals (especially when those mammals are humans) with a billion of them every year each infected with a trillion parasites. Nothing in a laboratory can even come close in scope and it takes scope like this to test evolution by chance & necessity as the claim is that the big changes are the accumulation of small changes over very very many replications. Much of science is conducted purely through observing nature while interfering as little as possible. I'm sorry if what was observed doesn't comport with the theory you place your faith in. Science is about how things really are not how you think they are or wish they are. DaveScot
January 8, 2008
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Q, Please tell me how one is to measure neo Darwinism in the lab when the basic premise says it takes millions of years before you see anything. Wouldn't a better test be to try to measure it in the wild where it is supposed to take place. Behe said watch Lenski's research with bacteria. Here have been lab tests of thousands of generations and again not much has happened to change the basic bacteria. Those of us who have had research methodology courses understand their value but how does one use this methodology with history and that is what evolution is, an historical science. The best way is to try to sample various conditions in the real world and see what they say. If none show gradualism except in some trivial cases, then what is one to say about this theory.jerry
January 8, 2008
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DrDan, in 15, asked "what’s the difference between an observation and test in the context that DaveScot used the word “observation”?" Fair question. One method of validating a claim by correlating the claim against previously observed data. That is how I read DaveScot's comment about observation. This method has value, but it also has limitations. Specifically, if the prior observations didn't control the variables adequately, then it may not be known how well the older observations can be extrapolated to validate the claim. Another method of validating a claim is to construct a test in which the experimenter controls the variables, and measures the results. This is basically a key piece of the scientific method. In other words, the observation method extrapolates old observations to support a claim, whereas the test method generates new observations specifically to validate (or invalidate) the claim.Q
January 8, 2008
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Q, what's the difference between an observation and test in the context that DaveScot used the word "observation"?DrDan
January 8, 2008
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DaveScot, comment 9, mentioned "Perhaps you should try reading “Edge of Evolution” which draws on, among other things, molecular observations of an extremely large population (billions of trillions) of eukaryotes under intense selection pressure." Dave, I'm not disputing that observations have been made. Specifically what I was discussing was tests. That is, controllable situations performed according to the principles of the scientific process. Theoretically, it should eventually be possible to construct a test that actually measures the edge you reference. That is a different set of knowledge than simply observing "it is beyond the edge" Also, I don't think it proper to simply assume what I have and haven't read.Q
January 8, 2008
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Practicing science includes testing claims, and finding if they are proven false, or how well they are substantiated by the evidence. Right! Can you say that Dembski in The Design Inference or that Behe in The Edge of Evolution did not test their claims in a transparent matter in a way that others would be unable to falsify them -- or try to -- if so inclined?tribune7
January 8, 2008
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bFast - I am glad someone else brings up Haldane and the work of Walter Remine here. I did note an earlier post on this at UD, and that is why I really enjoy the pages of this blog. Haldane was never mentioned in my high school or college classes. You are right that Remine and the Biotic Message needs to be "richly addressed" by naturalists. Most naturalist thinking lay-people I speak to (I refer to regular working stiffs with 4 year degrees who sit in a cube and adamantly claim that macro evolution is fact) have no idea who Haldane was, or even a mild concept of the mind-boggling math it would take for macroevolution to produce what we see today. I would love to see more of the naturalist reaction to this. The responses I have seen are so angry, they have a hard time conveying real sincerity.selectedpete
January 8, 2008
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Biological ID is based on the following (page 92 of "Darwinism, Design and Public Education"): 1) High information content (or specified complexity) and irreducible complexity constitute strong indicators or hallmarks of past intelligent design. 2) Biological systems have a high information content (or specified complexity) and utilize subsystems that manifest irreducible complexity. 3) Naturalistic mechanisms or undirected causes do not suffice to explain the origin of information (specified complexity) or irreducible complexity. 4) Therefore, intelligent design constitutes the best explanation for the origin of information and irreducible complexity in biological systems. Wm. Dembski states that showing CSI arising from nature, operating freely, would falsify ID. And that follows from what was posted above. See page 357 of "No Free Lunch". Dr Behe says:
“Coyne’s conclusion that design is unfalsifiable, however, seems to be at odds with the arguments of other reviewers of my book. Clearly, Russell Doolittle (Doolittle 1997), Kenneth Miller (Miller 1999), and others have advanced scientific arguments aimed at falsifying ID. (See my articles on blood clotting and the “acid test” on this web site.) If the results with knock-out mice (Bugge et al. 1996) had been as Doolittle first thought, or if Barry Hall’s work (Hall 1999) had indeed shown what Miller implied, then they correctly believed my claims about irreducible complexity would have suffered quite a blow. And since my claim for intelligent design requires that no unintelligent process be sufficient to produce such irreducibly complex systems, then the plausibility of ID would suffer enormously. Other scientists, including those on the National Academy of Science’s Steering Committee on Science and Creationism, in commenting on my book have also pointed to physical evidence (such as the similar structures of hemoglobin and myoglobin) which they think shows that irreducibly complex biochemical systems can be produced by natural selection: “However, structures and processes that are claimed to be ‘irreducibly’ complex typically are not on closer inspection.” (National Academy of Sciences 1999, p. 22) Now, one can’t have it both ways. One can’t say both that ID is unfalsifiable (or untestable) and that there is evidence against it. Either it is unfalsifiable and floats serenely beyond experimental reproach, or it can be criticized on the basis of our observations and is therefore testable. The fact that critical reviewers advance scientific arguments against ID (whether successfully or not) shows that intelligent design is indeed falsifiable. In fact,[I] my argument for intelligent design is open to direct experimental rebuttal.[/I] Here is a thought experiment that makes the point clear. In Darwin’s Black Box (Behe 1996) I claimed that the bacterial flagellum was irreducibly complex and so required deliberate intelligent design. The flip side of this claim is that the flagellum can’t be produced by natural selection acting on random mutation, or any other unintelligent process. To falsify such a claim, a scientist could go into the laboratory, place a bacterial species lacking a flagellum under some selective pressure (for mobility, say), grow it for ten thousand generations, and see if a flagellum--or any equally complex system--was produced. If that happened, my claims would be neatly disproven. How about Professor Coyne’s concern that, if one system were shown to be the result of natural selection, proponents of ID could just claim that some other system was designed? I think the objection has little force. If natural selection were shown to be capable of producing a system of a certain degree of complexity, then the assumption would be that it could produce any other system of an equal or lesser degree of complexity. If Coyne demonstrated that the flagellum (which requires approximately forty gene products) could be produced by selection, I would be rather foolish to then assert that the blood clotting system (which consists of about twenty proteins) required intelligent design."
Joseph
January 8, 2008
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Dave Scott: Thanks for an excellent note. Especially:
In far more replications than the total number of replications than all the animals in the lineage between reptiles and mammals essentially nothing phenotypically significant happened. This was an actual observation of a eukaryote. Yet we are asked to take it as a matter of faith that the same mechanism which was observed to accomplish virtually nothing in billions of trillions of replications (where any mutation in any replication was heritable) somehow managed to create all the novel cell types, tissue types, and organs that distinguish mammals from reptiles with far fewer opportunities to produce heritable mutations. Non sequitur. Creation of novel, complex structures through chance & necessity is sheer fantasy.
And I add this is what we should expect, on the relevant statistical thermodynamics principles related issues on the configuration spaces for information-storing macromolecules such as DNA, and the difficulties of finding islands of functionality relative to RV + NS on the gamut of our observed cosmos. Much less, the probabilistic resources of just one small 8,000 miles across planet that even Ptolemy knew was so small relative to space as a whole that it was by comparison of the scale of a mathematical point. [Thanks CSL for bringing the modern word's attention to this overlooked point, and thanks BarryA for noting on this this AM.] GEM of TKIkairosfocus
January 8, 2008
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Q I’m looking forward to advances that test the probabilities that are the bases of several claims in ID. Perhaps you should try reading "Edge of Evolution" which draws on, among other things, molecular observations of an extremely large population (billions of trillions) of eukaryotes under intense selection pressure. The data doesn't get any better than that. What ID predicted would happen based on statistical probability and average background mutation rate did indeed happen. It was a confirmation of ID. Chance & necessity made no predictions about what would happen because with that theory anything can happen (rapid evolution resulting in major phenotypical change or no evolution at all... it's all good with the biological theory of everything). But here's the crux of the matter. In far more replications than the total number of replications than all the animals in the lineage between reptiles and mammals essentially nothing phenotypically significant happened. This was an actual observation of a eukaryote. Yet we are asked to take it as a matter of faith that the same mechanism which was observed to accomplish virtually nothing in billions of trillions of replications (where any mutation in any replication was heritable) somehow managed to create all the novel cell types, tissue types, and organs that distinguish mammals from reptiles with far fewer opportunities to produce heritable mutations. Non sequitur. Creation of novel, complex structures through chance & necessity is sheer fantasy. DaveScot
January 8, 2008
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tribune7 says, in 4, "So it may be best to de-emphasize the general, and concentrate on the specific, namely that Dembski/Behe et al make claims that can be falsified — and hence are practicing science." First, I agree that examining the specific claims will probably be more fruitful than making broad claims. But second, and I'm not throwing stones at anyone, making claims isn't the same as practicing science. Practicing science includes testing claims, and finding if they are proven false, or how well they are substantiated by the evidence. I'm looking forward to advances that test the probabilities that are the bases of several claims in ID.Q
January 7, 2008
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if bacteria or malaria was shown in a lab experiment to evolve into the "Cambrian explosion" as a result of point mutations...I think we could safely ditch ID.ari-freedom
January 7, 2008
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bfast, I agree that ID is not falsifiable. But for practical purposes, if several IC examples Behe proposed were found to be very probable by some naturalistic means than IC would not be a doctrine ID could hang its hat on with any certitude. As of now no one has laid a glove on any of Behe's examples but if there were credible challenges to several, the IC argument would fade despite even one or two good iron clad examples.jerry
January 7, 2008
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Hi Denyse, "The Spiritual Brain reviewed in Jesuit thinkmag America" I just read a review of "The Spiritual Brain" in the Noetic Sciences "Shift" magazine. It doesn't seem to be online yet. http://www.noetic.org/publications/magazine.cfmWilliam Brookfield
January 7, 2008
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No! No! if something of known non-design shows CSI then CSI is falsified. I didn't see Post 1 until after I posted. You raise a very, very good and important point. Falsifying CSI/IC etc. does not falsify ID. So it may be best to de-emphasize the general, and concentrate on the specific, namely that Dembski/Behe et al make claims that can be falsified -- and hence are practicing science.tribune7
January 7, 2008
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Tribune7, "if something of known non-design shows CSI then ID is falsified." No! No! if something of known non-design shows CSI then CSI is falsified. If CSI is falsified, but IC is not falsified, or ReMine's hypothesis. Certainly Denton's view would not be falsified by proof of naturally occurring CSI.bFast
January 7, 2008
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I think Dembski's ideas can be falsified by showing false positives to CSI i.e. if something of known non-design shows CSI then ID is falsified.tribune7
January 7, 2008
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I would suggest that “intelligent design is not falsifiable.” and "specific ID hypotheses are falsifiable" are both correct. As I see it, Intelligent Design is not a theory but a metatheory, a science. As such, even if ID, IC and Privelaged Planet were all falsified, ID would realistically live, another ID hypothesis would invariably pop up. IC is clearly falsifiable. Even if one holds on to IC when a full mutational path is proven to be stepwise beneficial, there is always another potentially "IC" challenge. Yet the number of such challenges is certainly limited. There are a finite number of complex machines in the lifeforms on earth. SC is even easier to falsify than IC. SC will clearly fall if one instance of naturally occurring SC can be established. The Privelaged Planet hypothesis would certainly fall if another lifeform were found in the universe which did not have the privelage of being in a universe waiting for discovery. However, such a find would surely be "out of this world." I'm still waiting for ReMine's "Haldane's Dilemma" to be richly addressed. I would like to see a real calculation demonstrating that the amount of beneficial mutations that man has over chimps is atainable. In any case, I can conjur up another half-dozen ID hypotheses if these fall. Denton certainly presents hypotheses that are not mentioned above.bFast
January 7, 2008
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