Amid much fanfare:
Using the assumption that intelligent life forms on other planets in a similar way as it does on Earth, researchers have obtained an estimate for the number of intelligent communicating civilizations within our own galaxy -the Milky Way. They calculate that there could be over 30 active communicating intelligent civilizations in our home Galaxy.
Professor of Astrophysics at the University of Nottingham, Christopher Conselice who led the research, explains: “There should be at least a few dozen active civilizations in our Galaxy under the assumption that it takes 5 billion years for intelligent life to form on other planets, as on Earth.” Conselice also explains that, “The idea is looking at evolution, but on a cosmic scale. We call this calculation the Astrobiological Copernican Limit.”
First author Tom Westby explains: “The classic method for estimating the number of intelligent civilizations relies on making guesses of values relating to life, whereby opinions about such matters vary quite substantially. Our new study simplifies these assumptions using new data, giving us a solid estimate of the number of civilizations in our Galaxy.
The two Astrobiological Copernican limits are that intelligent life forms in less than 5 billion years, or after about 5 billion years – similar to on Earth where a communicating civilization formed after 4.5 billion years. In the strong criteria, whereby a metal content equal to that of the Sun is needed (the Sun is relatively speaking quite metal rich), we calculate that there should be around 36 active civilizations in our Galaxy.”
University of Nottingham, “Research sheds new light on intelligent life existing across the galaxy” at Eurekalert
Paper. (paywall)
The Mirror has some great sci fi pix:
We are not alone – with 36 intelligent alien races living in our galaxy, according to a new study.
British scientists have calculated that there could be dozens of other extra terrestrial lifeforms within the Milky Way.
But they said it is likely the average distance to such civilisations would be 17,000 light-years – making detection and communication “very difficult” with our present technology.
Mark Waghorn “Up to 36 ‘intelligent alien races’ could be living in our galaxy, scientists say” at Mirror
It’s all malarkey. In the real world, it would be awfully nice to find fossil bacteria on Mars. Good chance it came from Earth. When that seems to be taking some time, we hear about 36 alien civs.
That’s because there’ll always be a market for We Are Not Alone. The thing is, it used to be called religion, not science. And it still is religion, not science. See Tales of an invented god for more on that.
Hat tip: Ken Francis, co-author with Theodore Dalrymple of The Terror of Existence: From Ecclesiastes to Theatre of the Absurd
Francis asks, “Why not 37 alien races? Or 39? What about 24-and-a-half? Or 63?”
Because 36 is a much nicer number.
Francis asks, “Why not 37 alien races? Or 39? What about 24-and-a-half? Or 63?”
Duh!
Obviously, because there’s a transitive law in math.
🙂
Here’s the proof:
“Because there is a law such as gravity, the universe can and will create itself from nothing. Spontaneous creation is the reason there is something rather than nothing, why the universe exists, why we exist,” -Stephen Hawking.
Jawa:
You used one of my favorite quotes to show why Hawking never should have been in physics. He was a mathematician playing physicist.
“Because there is a law such as gravity, the universe can and will create itself from nothing. Spontaneous creation is the reason there is something rather than nothing, why the universe exists, why we exist,”
He admits there is a law of gravity, but never stops to consider how the law came into being. If the Big Bang created a chaotic universe, as Hawking believed, then how can any law exist? The laws show order in the universe, which could not have come about from chaos. Only chaos comes from chaos.
He actually believed the universe created itself out of nothing. You cannot get something from nothing and is clearly the result of Darwinist thought. The universe could not have been created by Intelligent Design, therefore it must have made itself magically appear, complete with all the laws of physics.
Magic is used to explain away anything that does not fit the Darwinist view.
BobRyan,
I see your point.
I’ve heard that Nobel Laureate, physicist Richard Feynman, once said that outside his or her field, a scientist is just as dumb as the next guy.
Another Nobel Laureate, Baron Rees, said much the same about his friend Stephen Hawking’s pronouncements on philosophy and religion. Dr Rees once told the Guardian newspaper, “I know Stephen Hawking well enough to know that he has read little philosophy and less theology, so I don’t think his views [on those subjects] should be taken with any special weight.”
Their assumption(s) that they used in their calculations are erroneous,
First, their assumption for “the likelihood of stars hosting Earth-like planets in their habitable zones” is far too optimistic,
Second, their assumption that, simply given the right “metal-rich environment”, then intelligent life will be, more or less, guaranteed to evolve, (for lack of a better term), is grossly simplistic.
Shoot, the probability against ‘simple’ life itself, (not intelligent life mind you), spontaneously appearing on that hypothetical life supporting planet are, no pun intended, astronomical.
Stephen Meyer, using very optimistic assumptions, calculated that the odds of ‘simple’ life spontaneously forming are one in 10 to the 41,000th power.
Professor Harold Morowitz, working from a more realistic thermodynamic perspective, showed that the Origin of Life ‘problem’ escalates dramatically over Dr. Meyer’s optimistic 1 in 10^41,000 figure :
Moreover, the odds against intelligent life supposedly evolving from that ‘simple’ life are even more astronomical,
Even just looking at the millions of species of life on earth we know that, given the right metal rich conditions on earth, that intelligent life is not, more or less, guaranteed to evolve. (as they erroneously assumed in their calculation,)
They define ‘intelligent life” by our ability to communicate, (i.e. “intelligent, communicative life”). yet our ability to communicate information is itself, evolutionary speaking, a complete mystery. Leading Evolutionists themselves admit that our ability to communicate information is a complete mystery:
The late best selling author Tom Wolfe was so taken aback by this honest confession from leading Darwinists that he wrote a book on the subject. Here is a general outline of his main argument;
In other words, that humans should master the planet due to his unique ability to communicate information is completely contrary to the ‘survival of the fittest’ thinking that undergirds Darwinian thought. i.e. Although humans are fairly defenseless creatures in the wild compared to other creatures, such as lions, bears, sharks, etc.., nonetheless, humans have, completely contrary to Darwinian ‘survival of the fittest’ thinking, managed to become masters of the planet, not by brute force, but simply by our unique ability to communicate information and also to, specifically, infuse information into material substrates in order to create, i.e. intelligently design, objects that are extremely useful for our defense, basic survival in procuring food, furtherance of our knowledge, and even merely for our pleasure.
What is more interesting still about the fact that humans have a unique ability to understand and create information, and have come to dominate the world through the ‘top-down’ infusion of information into material substrates, is the fact that, due to advances in science, both the universe and life itself, are now found to be ‘information theoretic’ in their foundational basis.
It is hard to imagine a more convincing proof that we are ‘made in the image of God’, than finding that both the universe and life itself are ‘information theoretic’ in their foundational basis, and that we, of all the creatures on earth, uniquely possess an ability to understand and create information, and have come to ‘master the planet’ precisely because of our ability to infuse information into material substrates.
I guess a more convincing proof that we are made in the image of God could be if God Himself became a man, defeated death on a cross, and then rose from the dead to prove that He was God.
And that is precisely the proof claimed within Christianity.
Of supplemental note: The title of their paper “The Astrobiological Copernican Weak and Strong Limits for Intelligent Life” also shows that, scientifically speaking, they really have no clue what they are talking about.
Specifically, the Copernican principle itself has now been overturned by our best theories in science, i.e. General Relativity and Quantum Mechanics respectfully:
Verse:
It is well known among the true astrophysical scientific community that the actual number of ETI civilizations in our galaxy is zero. But the estimate of ~35 from some fantasy “astrophysicists” at least is closer to reality than that of their predecessors, e.g. Carl Sagan’s “Billions and Billions”.
Hilarious, “giving us a solid estimate of the number of civilizations in our Galaxy”. Take some cosmological hand waving and presto, a “solid estimate”, obviously superior to those earlier ones.
And these guys get paid to do this sort of thing? Where can I apply?
And then there is the ” two Astrobiological Copernican limits are that intelligent life forms in less than 5 billion years, or after about 5 billion years”. So the two limits are either before or after 5 billion years? What does that even mean?
Are we sure that Eurekalert is not a satire magazine?