New Study: COVID-19 Cases Undercounted by Factor of up to 55

PaV, sometimes, a lockdown is needed to get compliance with other measures. KF kairosfocus

Here's an article on the "lockdown effect." Look at the chart on the Italian "lockdown" in Lombardy and the subsequent 'change in deaths' curve. PaV

Jerry, I just headlined the vid you linked https://uncommondesc.wpengine.com/medicine/dr-raoult-in-his-own-voice-on-hcq-with-english-sub-titles/ Thanks. KF kairosfocus

Jerry: Follow the money. Yes, HCQ is cheap. Dr. Fauci is Mr. HIV. Incredible amounts of money are involved, and likely all being spent on a phony virus. Science is corrupt. The only thing that fights corruption is Judeo-Christian ethics. That's why science 'grew up' in the Christian West. Another "follow the money" scenarios: Michael Moore claims today that with "Climate Change," when you follow the money, guess what, you run into rich capitalists ready for a 'tax-money' handout from obliging governments. Who would have guessed that? PaV

Here is a recent video by Dr. Raoult. In French but has English subtitles. Basically says that any study of HCQ after the person enters the hospital is a bogus study since some of the patients will be virus free but still very sick from the effects of it. Yet this is when HCQ is first authorized to be prescribed for many patients. Completely insane since it cannot possibly have an effect. We have had commenters here showing the inadequacy of HCQ using such studies. Raoult believes. one of the pushback to HCQ is that it is cheap, about $4 a pill vs multi thousand dollar other treatments. Claims Marseille where he lives has much better results than other parts of France. https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=99&v=Xhoi1JKjClk&feature=emb_logo jerry

Here's an interesting interview (translated from Czech) with a European doctor who said that the flu he experienced three years ago was worse for him than CoVid-19. He's a physician, and recommended that "active immunization" be allowed to happen (i.e., herd immunity). He was, of course, attacked. But, he sticks to his original recommendation. Here's a question he was asked:

At the beginning of the pandemics, you called the disease a different kind of a flu that everyone should try out. Isn't it ironic that you, a famous physician, has contracted the disease?

I remember somebody else saying something like this. Was he attacked also? You bet. Today they found out that two people who died in Los Angeles in early February died of CoVid-19. So, this virus has been around for quite some time. (And herd immunity has likely developed to some degree.) This should force a re-interpretation of the charts for this disease's progression here in the States and, in particular, what, if any, effect "social-distancing" had on the number of cases and deaths. I don't see any flattening. And, if this virus was around for so long, then there should have been exponential growth (R_o is high) followed by a flattening once the distancing measures were put into force. We don't see this. I've also mentioned how poorly the bureaucracy has responded to this virulent strain of virus. We now know that the test kits the FDA sent out, early on, were contaminated. Why were they contaminated? Basically, the people running the place don't know what they're doing. Is this a 'lesson' we will learn from all of this? Good luck there! PaV

Jerry, I saw that with the big UK study recently announced. Not good. Doing a 2-phase on something dependent on synergy, where individual parts must pass first, and likely, intervene late too. KF kairosfocus

Zelenko strikes again

Dr. Zelenko went to twitter this morning to comment on studies supposedly showing HCQ has no effect. It is what we suspected. The studies are at best inappropriate.

all the hydroxychloroquine trials published are designed to fail. They study the sickest hospital patients who have >50% of dying and then conclude that the drugs don’t work.

Are we witnessing the baseness of human behavior in both the organization of the studies and the reporting? Probably ignorance on the former but it may be accurate for the reporting. jerry

Doubter, risk of getting infected is different from that of the disease taking hold and beginning its terrible Chloros-gallop. Immune booster is an enhanced RESPONSE to . . . why, err, yes, ahm, . . . infection. KF kairosfocus

Ortho, fraud, no. Error, yes. Demonstrable and largely philosophically rooted. KF kairosfocus

Jerry @41 Concerning Dr. Seheult's regimen, the medical establishment continues to dismiss supplementation as anything effective against COVID-19. As an example, this is from Psychology Today: "Although some supplements may contribute to overall health, and a few studies investigating the possible effectiveness of select supplements have begun, currently there is no evidence that taking vitamin C, Echinacea, zinc, or any other supplements reduces the risk of becoming infected with COVID-19, or lessens the severity of symptoms in individuals who have already contracted the virus. Relying on a natural supplement may not only place you at greater risk of contracting COVID-19, but may delay the start of appropriate medical treatment. The false belief that taking a supplement may ‘protect’ you from becoming infected with COVID-19 may lead some to not take appropriate precautions that have been shown to mitigate the risk of contracting COVID-19, such as social distancing and avoiding gatherings of more than a few people. In recent weeks, false claims about vitamin C and COVID-19 have been removed from large social media sites such as Facebook, Twitter, and Youtube. " Although controlled studies have yet to be completed I think it is only prudent to ignore such traditionalist medical thinking (that has typically for many years contrary to the evidence dismissed the value of vitamin and other supplements generally), and take Seheult's daily regimen of vitamins D and C, zinc, quercetin and NAC. doubter

KF, Jerry and I are talking about the antibody studies. The almost an the good news about HCQ comes from a small number of charsmatic characters should give you pause about that front too orthomyxo

For a site dedicated to the idea a major field of science of entirety fraudulent, you guys have a strange amount of faith in academic authority! orthomyxo

Ortho, a paper is in progress and an onward control group study. I have pointed out already a relevant decision theory, scenario based planning approach that can show how the near business as usual baseline and one or more credible alternatives already help us to use rather than denigrate and dismiss evidence in hand. We are fighting in a global war, WWV -- both virus and five. III was Cold War, IV (also WW0 since the 630's) the ongoing 4th gen war over Islamist expansionism with added geostrategic contest with esp China. In a war a good enough solution now trumps an academic ideal a year from now. KF kairosfocus

these details is pretty shoddy.

Tell that to the Stanford Medical School which employs him. As I said watch the interview. He’s an impressive guy. jerry

It would take no time to write up, if they did it well they could just share the analysis script. The response rate is crucial and takes seconds to calculate. Given the issues with earlier study, getting the results out without these details is pretty shoddy. orthomyxo

How else can we assess the strength of the conclusions?

Watch interview. This is watching real time as project proceeds. Don’t know what will satisfy you. But he has data and background to conduct study. Will take time to formally write up. People are dying in large numbers and tens of millions have lost their livelihood. Being formal not an option for dissemination. Same with Zelenko’. He’s cutting corners on formal presentation to save lives. jerry

Ok, seems like actually reporting the methods used to get to the big headline making result would be useful though? How else can we assess the strength of the conclusions? orthomyxo

Kf Yes a lot is happening. Dr. Seheult talks about how HCQ works and that Quercetin probably also works as zinc ionophore. Have to add NAC to daily regimen. It’s amazing the resistance we get from friends on this. They can’t believe the treatment is so inexpensive. Zinc is disappearing from stores in US. Maybe if the press reported that people would take notice. Will zinc become the new toilet paper jerry

MedCram doctor who has been treating C19 patients for over s months discusses what he takes as a preventive. Coronavirus Pandemic Update 59: Dr. Seheult's Daily Regimen (Vitamin D, C, Zinc, Quercetin, NAC) It is what was recommended by the Eastern Virginia Medical School except for NAC. Video explains why Dr Seheult takes each with medical studies as references. He then describes his procedures for minimizing exposure for himself, his co workers and his family as he treats C19 patients each day in hospital. Next video will be on his treatment for the patients. jerry

Jerry, wow! KF PS: Brazil and Israel are doing his early treatment, clinical diagnosis (backed up by nasal swab test), outpatient-oriented dosage for vulnerable patients protocol, ALT-1. He has treated 405 in that profile and sees 95% reduction on the expected death rate for the n-BAU baseline. He points out that the Raoult [by implication] protocol, which does not use Zn supplements is seeing 90% reduction relative to the same baseline, ALT-2 . . . which is consistent with implications of the tabulated numbers I discussed over the past few days. Several other countries are interested and other physicians are joining in in the US. He intends, with colleagues, to publish in it seems JAMA or NEJM shortly. Long Island has a control group double blind test in train, with results in perhaps 3 - 4 months [implying a smallish test I believe?]. kairosfocus

Are the details of the study I asked about in it or no?

Doesn’t discuss specific statistical results in detail. Is an interview with doctor who designed study and why he did it and his plans to expand what he is doing. He also has PhD in economics. So discusses economic vs medical issues. jerry

Hi Jerry, still haven't had a chance to watch the other video. Are the details of the study I asked about in it or no? orthomyxo

The one problem with the Zelenko advocacy is that he brings in religion more and more. I personally have no problem with his faith and beliefs. The radio program appears to have a religious orientation and Sontag is known for professing his Christian beliefs. But many will turn away because they will not accept the results of a very religious person especially one with conservative political tendencies and presented in a religious environment. jerry

Zelenko strikes again with interview last night. https://omny.fm/shows/frank-sontag/04-20-20-interview-with-dr-vladimir-zelenko Listened to first 25 minutes. His protocol expanding to other doctors and double blind test coming soon though that sounds stupid given obvious results. Being used in Brazil with 95% reduction in deaths. President of Brazil follows Zelenko on social media and has advocated procedure for out patients. Will soon be presenting a meta analysis from several sources of his protocol. He is constantly in contact with other physicians and medical organizations from several countries. Surprised he still has time to see patients. Being adopted by other countries in addition to Brazil. Almost no side effects from drugs. Not given to those under 60 unless they have compromising other condition. Or exhibit serious effects of virus. High success rate of diagnosing without actual test. But tests anyway. jerry

The Navy is delaying plans to begin moving sailors back onboard the aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt after crew members continued to test positive for the coronavirus after isolation, according to Navy officials. Navy leadership is temporarily halting post-quarantine testing and is extending sailors' isolation more than three weeks after the Roosevelt was forced to dock in Guam on March 27, according to a memo viewed by POLITICO. Navy leadership took the steps after a number of sailors tested positive for the novel coronavirus even after their 14-day isolation period, three crew members told POLITICO. Some of the sailors who recently tested positive had previously tested negative, one Navy official said. rhampton7

National Review It took twelve months and 61 million infections for the H1N1 swine flu to kill 12,500 Americans in 2009–10. The Centers for Disease Control estimated that the seasonal flu killed 34,200 Americans during the 2018–19 flu season. In 2019, car crashes killed 38,800 Americans. As for the new coronavirus? On March 20, the death toll in the United States was 225. By April 20, the coronavirus had killed more than 42,000 Americans. But as Rich Lowry pointed out last week, “if we are going to have 60,000 deaths with people not leaving their homes for more than a month, the number of deaths obviously would have been higher — much higher — if everyone had gone about business as usual.” While there are 800,000 confirmed coronavirus cases in the United States — that’s 0.24 percent of the U.S. population — former FDA commissioner Scott Gottlieb has noted that anywhere between 1 percent and 5 percent of Americans may have actually already been infected with the virus. But that’s far short of the 50 percent to 70 percent required to achieve herd immunity. The seasonal flu, by contrast, infected 12 percent of the American population last year because we have a flu vaccine and some more immunity from previous infections. rhampton7

@ortho, more Americans died today from Covid 19 than died from the attacks on 9/11. In one day, Covid 19 killed more US citizens. And yet there are some people who are still trying to minimize it. It boggles the mind. Politics can make people say the craziest things. Jim Thibodeau

Kraft Heinz says some workers at a western Michigan facility in West Bloomfield Township are quarantined after two tested positive for COVID-19 and three others are presumed to have the virus. Spokesman Michael Mullen says the food production plant in Holland was closed Sunday for cleaning and reopened Monday. A union representing 227 employees at the facility says Kraft Heinz has been slow to provide personal protective equipment to workers and has tied bonus pay to attendance, thus encouraging workers to work when they are sick. It says workers were told to use vacation days for quarantine after exposure to infected colleagues. Mullen says this is no longer the case. rhampton7

Vancouver Coastal Health says 28 employees at United Poultry Company Ltd., an East Vancouver chicken processing plant, have tested positive for the COVID-19 virus. She said it is not clear at this time whether the virus was spread through contact during work, or within a break room. "There was evidence at the plant that employees did have access to gloves and some plastic face coverings," she said. "But we have identified that the plans that were in place were inadequate or were not appropriately executed." rhampton7

Ok, I've got work to do, so I won't watch it anytime soon. Can you let me know the data on response rate, and frequency of recent symptoms in the sample? Also how the confidence intervals are calculated to include the false positive rate? orthomyxo

kind of doubt a months old interview will have data on the response rate of a study carried out a few weeks ago

Interview is from 4 days ago. Did a previous interview a month ago. Link went to post from yesterday for interview on Friday. jerry

I kind of doubt a months old interview will have data on the response rate of a study carried out a few weeks ago .. orthomyxo

No preprint paper, no methodological summary, no sample description. Jut the headline numbers.

Watch the video I linked to. It explains everything. Is the methodology absolutely perfect. Probably not yet. Things are moving very quickly. Thousands dying each day. Tens of millions in US out of work. More studies coming. Data from Major League Baseball coming next. Other research methods include studies of human waste. I can just hear the objections. It’s a load of crap. The effects from the economic depression will dwarf any effects this virus is having. We are just one month into it. Just wait till money runs out or food gets scarce. There is a 6 month supply of food in the supply chain now. That may not be true much longer if everyone listens to the doom and gloom of those citing the negative effects of virus. jerry

You might as well stick a finger in each ear and run around yelling “la la la la; I’m not listening.” One study can be dismissed. A second study showing the same thing should give pause. A third study showing the same thing should at the very least warrant tentative acceptance. But nope, Jim has confirmation biases to protect at all costs. Sad that.

This is... not how it works. It's quite possible for more than one study to have the same methodological flaws and biases and produce the same spurious results as a result. In this case we have the Santa Clara with pretty major issues and this one, including the same researchers but containing no methodological data at all! No preprint paper, no methodological summary, no sample description. Jut the headline numbers. It seems this one may have been recruited by phone calls, but there is no data on the response rate and no data on how many have had symptoms recently so it's very hard to assess the bias in recruiting. GIven how far the US got behind on testing, there is no doubt the true incidence is much higher than the number of positive PCR tests, But it's very hard to align the upper-bound (or even the point estimates) of these studies with the death toll in NYC or the UK. orthomyxo

RHampton has presented results of tests at food processing plants. These studies on anti bodies will see who is at risk or not. We know younger people are less susceptible. Food processing should be top priority as these tests roll out to the country. Might not be a big problem if we do this as test gets more accurate and less expensive. Question is what are the number of potential deaths from a world wide depression? Are these tests a way to save lives from this very real economic depression. Again I recommend watching the interview linked to above. We should be grateful we have people like Dr. Bhattacharya https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/uk-the-fight-against-covid-19-an-update-from-dr-jay-bhattacharya/ jerry

I was wondering what Barry’s point in focusing here on the CFR is. I think what we should be focusing on instead is the speed or “virality” of the contagion. Is there a statistical measure of that type of thing? If you look at a timeline as to when and how this pandemic unfolded you’ll see it sped around the world at an amazing speed. That’s a fact. Initially during February the response by the CDC and Coronavirus task force was focused on a containment strategy. This appears to have been somewhat successful on the west coast. No doubt this was in part due to Trump’s 1/31 travel ban which closed down travel from China. In retrospect, however, while it looks like he shut the front door fast enough he was somewhat tardy in shutting the back door which is why we had such a big flare-up in flare-up of Covid-19 in New York City. The CDC was forced to change its strategy to a nationwide mitigation strategy. Here are the latest statistics from NYC:

Confirmed cases: 136,806 Recovered: 18,018 Deaths: 10,344

How would knowing the actual CFR changed any of these facts? Answer: it wouldn’t. Facts are facts. In other words, knowing what we know now would not have given the CDC sufficient reason to change its current flattening the curve mitigation strategy. It was the prudent way to proceed. It still is. Going forward, of course, you can’t keep the economy shut down for much longer without causing serious long term life threatening damage. john_a_designer

Ten employees at the Post cereal plant in Battle Creek, MI have tested positive for COVID-19, according to a statement from the company. Employees who have had close contact with those who are sick have been asked to self-quarantine for 14 days. The workers will continue to be paid, and no employees will have to use sick time or paid time off. The plant has also increased cleaning, staggered shifts and implemented social distancing over the past few weeks. All employees entering the facility are also having their temperature checked, according to the company, and everyone has been supplied with face masks in an effort to reduce the likelihood of illness. rhampton7

After witnessing outbreaks at food processing plants in other states and receiving reports of cases among workers in our state, North Carolina public and private leaders have come together to take swift action to protect workers here from COVID-19. There are currently outbreaks in five food processing facilities located in Bladen, Chatham Duplin, Lee and Robeson counties. An outbreak is defined as two or more positive cases. Local health departments are conducting outbreak investigations including contact tracing to determine who else may have been exposed. Health care providers and hospitals are ensuring that those who test positive for COVID-19 are connected to care. Food processing plants report that they are doing temperature and symptom checks, encouraging sick employees to stay home and implementing paid sick leave for those with or suspected of having coronavirus. They are also providing personal protective equipment and employing social distancing policies where possible. Teams will alsol be available to conduct on-site assessments and providing technical assistance to plants to limit further spread. rhampton7

The union steward at the Tyson Foods Inc. plant in Logansport, IN told our partners at the Pharos-Tribune Monday at least 15 employees have tested positive for the virus. This despite reported social-distancing plans at the pork producing facility, the steward said. The Pharos-Tribune reported production was halted at the facility on Monday to work on deep cleaning and sanitizing the plant. Production is expected to resume on Tuesday. The newspaper was unable to reach anyone at the Cass County Health Department or the Tyson facility for comment. rhampton7

Mexican prepared foods maker Don Miguel Foods is closing its Dallas plant for 14 days, a production pause it describes as precautionary in response to “further spread of COVID-19 in the area.” The plant employs 700 people making tacos, burritos, chimichangas and other Mexican prepared foods products for retail and food service outlets. It expects to resume production May 4. Don Miguel Foods is a subsidiary of MegaMex Foods Corp., which is a joint venture between Mexico City-based Herdez Del Fuerte and Minnesota-based Hormel Foods Corp. rhampton7

A spokesman for Wayne Farms confirmed that 75 employees of the Albertville, AL plant have tested positive for coronavirus, and one has died. An additional 250 may have been exposed and are in quarantine as a precaution, said Wayne Farms spokesman Frank Singleton. The plant, which has more than 800 employees, will slow production to improve safety. That will allow employees to stand far enough apart to prevent transmission of the virus, Singleton said. rhampton7

An interview with the person behind the Stanford study. From a few days ago. https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/uk-the-fight-against-covid-19-an-update-from-dr-jay-bhattacharya/ It was first major test using anti-bodies The good news if true is that the virus is not as bad as media stories. Indicate The bad news is that about 97 % don’t have virus and this will take a long time till herd immunity and it will be impossible to eliminate it from the world. It will continue to come back. Did Los Angeles study and is doing Major League Baseball. Should be out soon. Data already collected. Essentially says we have been reacting to bad information. Reasonable based on what we knew. But we now more and must reevaluate our projections. Wants to do more tests. Three down and many tests to go. Already happening all over the world and several places in US. Maybe in RHampton’s food plants should be a priority. jerry

Just a little sampling of information on nursing home deaths from COVID-19 (from news report, https://thecity.nyc/2020/04/new-yorks-deadliest-nursing-homes-list-omits-many-deaths.html): "Bensonhurst Center for Rehabilitation and Healthcare in Brooklyn reported 34 deaths, or 17% of residents, the highest share among the city’s nursing homes, according to the state’s latest data. ............................. Five other nursing homes have reported that more than 10% of their residents have died of the virus: Carmel Richmond Healthcare and Rehabilitation Center in Staten island; Cobble Hill Health Center in Brooklyn; Franklin Center for Rehabilitation and Nursing; Holliswood Center for Rehabilitation and Healthcare; and Sapphire Center for Rehabilitation and Nursing in Queens." This sort of situation is apparently considerably underestimating the general nursing home situation due to under reporting. Of course, as the bodies pile up this disproportionate death rate occurring in nursing homes is to be expected based on observations that the elderly and infirm with preexisting conditions especially heart disease and lung conditions are particularly at risk from the coronavirus. As the disproportionate death rate in nursing homes continues, how long can conservative echo-chamber deniers claim it's just another flu-like virus grossly exaggerated by the liberal-controlled media? doubter

I see attacks on my character and authority, but I don’t see any explanation of where Gelman was wrong. I’m pretty sure when the data is in, a few weeks from now, the people with science backgrounds will be proven correct, and the people who credulously believed what Trump said will be making more excuses. Jim Thibodeau

“ Jim, the tenacity with which you grit your teeth and cling to your confirmation bias with a death grip is truly astonishing. Yes, by all means. Three studies say the same thing. They all must be wrong, because they upset Jim’s preconceived ideas about what the right answer just has to be. Well, Jim, that settles it. Let’s live in the world according to Jim. Irony alert. Jim is the first to yell “science denier” when discussing ID and climate change. It would be funny if it were not so sad.” Three words could’ve saved you a lot of typing. Jim Thibodeau

Whatever. But from what I have seen he has yet to make a logically valid argument that is based on real facts and evidence. Having a personal opinion and being argumentative about it is not the same as making an argument. john_a_designer

What’s Jim’s background? I believe he is a salesman with an engineering background. But that isn’t relevant if he is coherent and knows the issues. He has apparently read the false positive criticism some place. jerry

Search internet for Jay Bhattacharya. He is professor at Stanford and originator for study questioning severity of virus. He is an MD with a doctorate in Economics. The study was discussed on MedCram yesterday and raised the issues of false positives and self selection in the sample. Dr. Bhattacharya continues to defend his conclusions. It makes sense given the Diamond Princess experience. jerry

What’s Jim’s background? Or is he just an all-around know it all? Anyway you better watch out Barry. You better not start discussing things like constitutional law. Jim will be running circles around you. At least that’s what he and his tag team buddy Ed will be thinking. john_a_designer

Shouldn't have been a surprise. When a virus is in a community, it "infects" everyone. Almost everyone tosses it off and develops immunity. The current Branded Flu is a virus, so it behaves like a virus. The surprise that needs real investigation is why so many "scientists" suddenly started lying about this obvious and universally known fact. polistra

Barry what’s the false positive rate on those tests?

Jim, the tenacity with which you grit your teeth and cling to your confirmation bias with a death grip is truly astonishing. Yes, by all means. Three studies say the same thing. They all must be wrong, because they upset Jim's preconceived ideas about what the right answer just has to be. Well, Jim, that settles it. Let's live in the world according to Jim. Irony alert. Jim is the first to yell "science denier" when discussing ID and climate change. It would be funny if it were not so sad. Barry Arrington

@ Barry Arrington:

You might as well stick a finger in each ear and run around yelling “la la la la; I’m not listening.”

And it would surprise no one, since that's what naturalists have always been doing, denying reality and imagining for themselves one that never existed. Truthfreedom

Currently watching a long interview from last Friday of doctor who designed study from Stanford. Also the latest video from MedCram discusses all the objections to this study and also the examination of waste products in various municipalities. jerry

Second auestion, what did Andrew Gelman, Director of the Applied Statistics Center at Columbia University, get wrong in his analysis? Jim Thibodeau

Barry what’s the false positive rate on those tests? Jim Thibodeau

"Probably statistical error. " Translated: "Not scary enough" Jim Thibodeau, you take the proverbial cake. Andrew asauber

Probably statistical error.

You might as well stick a finger in each ear and run around yelling "la la la la; I'm not listening." One study can be dismissed. A second study showing the same thing should give pause. A third study showing the same thing should at the very least warrant tentative acceptance. But nope, Jim has confirmation biases to protect at all costs. Sad that. Barry Arrington

Probably statistical error. https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2020/04/19/fatal-flaws-in-stanford-study-of-coronavirus-prevalence/ The results they get were statistically consistent with anywhere from 0 to several percent infected. I’d be interested in Bob’s opinion, because he knows way more about stat then the rest of us here. Jim Thibodeau

I read an interesting article the other day that might be of value in the plan to loosen the restrictions. It talked about using the testing of raw sewage as a means of monitoring the infection levels in the community. If the COVID numbers increase in the sewage then it would be reasonable to assume that it is increasing in the community. There are obviously many things that would have to be addressed before this would be a cheap and reliable means of monitoring the infection levels. The first being are the analytical methods sensitive enough to detect it at levels that would be of value? As well, as you loosen the restrictions, the volumes of raw sewage would increase, diluting the virus counts. Ed George