New Study: COVID-19 Cases Undercounted by Factor of up to 55

_{Barry Arrington

April 21, 2020

Intelligent Design}

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The estimated infection numbers are 28 to 55 times higher than the 7,994 confirmed COVID-19 cases L.A. County had reported at the time of the study in early April.

This study seems to confirm the study reported in BREAKING: Stanford Study: COVID-19 Case Fatality Rate May Be Overstated By A Factor Of 85

It is becoming increasingly clear that we have closed the country down out of fear of a virus when the overwhelming majority of infections are so mild that the infected person never notices.

Comments

PaV, sometimes, a lockdown is needed to get compliance with other measures. KFkairosfocus_{April 23, 2020
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Here's an article on the "lockdown effect." Look at the chart on the Italian "lockdown" in Lombardy and the subsequent 'change in deaths' curve.PaV_{April 22, 2020
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Jerry, I just headlined the vid you linked https://uncommondescent.com/medicine/dr-raoult-in-his-own-voice-on-hcq-with-english-sub-titles/ Thanks. KFkairosfocus_{April 22, 2020
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Jerry: Follow the money. Yes, HCQ is cheap. Dr. Fauci is Mr. HIV. Incredible amounts of money are involved, and likely all being spent on a phony virus. Science is corrupt. The only thing that fights corruption is Judeo-Christian ethics. That's why science 'grew up' in the Christian West. Another "follow the money" scenarios: Michael Moore claims today that with "Climate Change," when you follow the money, guess what, you run into rich capitalists ready for a 'tax-money' handout from obliging governments. Who would have guessed that?PaV_{April 22, 2020
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Here is a recent video by Dr. Raoult. In French but has English subtitles. Basically says that any study of HCQ after the person enters the hospital is a bogus study since some of the patients will be virus free but still very sick from the effects of it. Yet this is when HCQ is first authorized to be prescribed for many patients. Completely insane since it cannot possibly have an effect. We have had commenters here showing the inadequacy of HCQ using such studies. Raoult believes. one of the pushback to HCQ is that it is cheap, about $4 a pill vs multi thousand dollar other treatments. Claims Marseille where he lives has much better results than other parts of France. https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=99&v=Xhoi1JKjClk&feature=emb_logojerry_{April 22, 2020
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Here's an interesting interview (translated from Czech) with a European doctor who said that the flu he experienced three years ago was worse for him than CoVid-19. He's a physician, and recommended that "active immunization" be allowed to happen (i.e., herd immunity). He was, of course, attacked. But, he sticks to his original recommendation. Here's a question he was asked:
At the beginning of the pandemics, you called the disease a different kind of a flu that everyone should try out. Isn't it ironic that you, a famous physician, has contracted the disease?
I remember somebody else saying something like this. Was he attacked also? You bet. Today they found out that two people who died in Los Angeles in early February died of CoVid-19. So, this virus has been around for quite some time. (And herd immunity has likely developed to some degree.) This should force a re-interpretation of the charts for this disease's progression here in the States and, in particular, what, if any, effect "social-distancing" had on the number of cases and deaths. I don't see any flattening. And, if this virus was around for so long, then there should have been exponential growth (R_o is high) followed by a flattening once the distancing measures were put into force. We don't see this. I've also mentioned how poorly the bureaucracy has responded to this virulent strain of virus. We now know that the test kits the FDA sent out, early on, were contaminated. Why were they contaminated? Basically, the people running the place don't know what they're doing. Is this a 'lesson' we will learn from all of this? Good luck there!PaV_{April 22, 2020
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Jerry, I saw that with the big UK study recently announced. Not good. Doing a 2-phase on something dependent on synergy, where individual parts must pass first, and likely, intervene late too. KFkairosfocus_{April 22, 2020
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Zelenko strikes again
Dr. Zelenko went to twitter this morning to comment on studies supposedly showing HCQ has no effect. It is what we suspected. The studies are at best inappropriate.
all the hydroxychloroquine trials published are designed to fail. They study the sickest hospital patients who have >50% of dying and then conclude that the drugs don’t work.
Are we witnessing the baseness of human behavior in both the organization of the studies and the reporting? Probably ignorance on the former but it may be accurate for the reporting.jerry_{April 22, 2020
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Doubter, risk of getting infected is different from that of the disease taking hold and beginning its terrible Chloros-gallop. Immune booster is an enhanced RESPONSE to . . . why, err, yes, ahm, . . . infection. KFkairosfocus_{April 22, 2020
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Ortho, fraud, no. Error, yes. Demonstrable and largely philosophically rooted. KFkairosfocus_{April 22, 2020
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Jerry @41 Concerning Dr. Seheult's regimen, the medical establishment continues to dismiss supplementation as anything effective against COVID-19. As an example, this is from Psychology Today: "Although some supplements may contribute to overall health, and a few studies investigating the possible effectiveness of select supplements have begun, currently there is no evidence that taking vitamin C, Echinacea, zinc, or any other supplements reduces the risk of becoming infected with COVID-19, or lessens the severity of symptoms in individuals who have already contracted the virus. Relying on a natural supplement may not only place you at greater risk of contracting COVID-19, but may delay the start of appropriate medical treatment. The false belief that taking a supplement may ‘protect’ you from becoming infected with COVID-19 may lead some to not take appropriate precautions that have been shown to mitigate the risk of contracting COVID-19, such as social distancing and avoiding gatherings of more than a few people. In recent weeks, false claims about vitamin C and COVID-19 have been removed from large social media sites such as Facebook, Twitter, and Youtube. " Although controlled studies have yet to be completed I think it is only prudent to ignore such traditionalist medical thinking (that has typically for many years contrary to the evidence dismissed the value of vitamin and other supplements generally), and take Seheult's daily regimen of vitamins D and C, zinc, quercetin and NAC.doubter_{April 22, 2020
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KF, Jerry and I are talking about the antibody studies. The almost an the good news about HCQ comes from a small number of charsmatic characters should give you pause about that front tooorthomyxo_{April 21, 2020
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For a site dedicated to the idea a major field of science of entirety fraudulent, you guys have a strange amount of faith in academic authority!orthomyxo_{April 21, 2020
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Ortho, a paper is in progress and an onward control group study. I have pointed out already a relevant decision theory, scenario based planning approach that can show how the near business as usual baseline and one or more credible alternatives already help us to use rather than denigrate and dismiss evidence in hand. We are fighting in a global war, WWV -- both virus and five. III was Cold War, IV (also WW0 since the 630's) the ongoing 4th gen war over Islamist expansionism with added geostrategic contest with esp China. In a war a good enough solution now trumps an academic ideal a year from now. KFkairosfocus_{April 21, 2020
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these details is pretty shoddy.
Tell that to the Stanford Medical School which employs him. As I said watch the interview. He’s an impressive guy.jerry_{April 21, 2020
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It would take no time to write up, if they did it well they could just share the analysis script. The response rate is crucial and takes seconds to calculate. Given the issues with earlier study, getting the results out without these details is pretty shoddy.orthomyxo_{April 21, 2020
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How else can we assess the strength of the conclusions?
Watch interview. This is watching real time as project proceeds. Don’t know what will satisfy you. But he has data and background to conduct study. Will take time to formally write up. People are dying in large numbers and tens of millions have lost their livelihood. Being formal not an option for dissemination. Same with Zelenko’. He’s cutting corners on formal presentation to save lives.jerry_{April 21, 2020
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Ok, seems like actually reporting the methods used to get to the big headline making result would be useful though? How else can we assess the strength of the conclusions?orthomyxo_{April 21, 2020
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Kf Yes a lot is happening. Dr. Seheult talks about how HCQ works and that Quercetin probably also works as zinc ionophore. Have to add NAC to daily regimen. It’s amazing the resistance we get from friends on this. They can’t believe the treatment is so inexpensive. Zinc is disappearing from stores in US. Maybe if the press reported that people would take notice. Will zinc become the new toilet paperjerry_{April 21, 2020
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MedCram doctor who has been treating C19 patients for over s months discusses what he takes as a preventive. Coronavirus Pandemic Update 59: Dr. Seheult's Daily Regimen (Vitamin D, C, Zinc, Quercetin, NAC) It is what was recommended by the Eastern Virginia Medical School except for NAC. Video explains why Dr Seheult takes each with medical studies as references. He then describes his procedures for minimizing exposure for himself, his co workers and his family as he treats C19 patients each day in hospital. Next video will be on his treatment for the patients.jerry_{April 21, 2020
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Jerry, wow! KF PS: Brazil and Israel are doing his early treatment, clinical diagnosis (backed up by nasal swab test), outpatient-oriented dosage for vulnerable patients protocol, ALT-1. He has treated 405 in that profile and sees 95% reduction on the expected death rate for the n-BAU baseline. He points out that the Raoult [by implication] protocol, which does not use Zn supplements is seeing 90% reduction relative to the same baseline, ALT-2 . . . which is consistent with implications of the tabulated numbers I discussed over the past few days. Several other countries are interested and other physicians are joining in in the US. He intends, with colleagues, to publish in it seems JAMA or NEJM shortly. Long Island has a control group double blind test in train, with results in perhaps 3 - 4 months [implying a smallish test I believe?].kairosfocus_{April 21, 2020
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Are the details of the study I asked about in it or no?
Doesn’t discuss specific statistical results in detail. Is an interview with doctor who designed study and why he did it and his plans to expand what he is doing. He also has PhD in economics. So discusses economic vs medical issues.jerry_{April 21, 2020
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Hi Jerry, still haven't had a chance to watch the other video. Are the details of the study I asked about in it or no?orthomyxo_{April 21, 2020
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The one problem with the Zelenko advocacy is that he brings in religion more and more. I personally have no problem with his faith and beliefs. The radio program appears to have a religious orientation and Sontag is known for professing his Christian beliefs. But many will turn away because they will not accept the results of a very religious person especially one with conservative political tendencies and presented in a religious environment.jerry_{April 21, 2020
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Zelenko strikes again with interview last night. https://omny.fm/shows/frank-sontag/04-20-20-interview-with-dr-vladimir-zelenko Listened to first 25 minutes. His protocol expanding to other doctors and double blind test coming soon though that sounds stupid given obvious results. Being used in Brazil with 95% reduction in deaths. President of Brazil follows Zelenko on social media and has advocated procedure for out patients. Will soon be presenting a meta analysis from several sources of his protocol. He is constantly in contact with other physicians and medical organizations from several countries. Surprised he still has time to see patients. Being adopted by other countries in addition to Brazil. Almost no side effects from drugs. Not given to those under 60 unless they have compromising other condition. Or exhibit serious effects of virus. High success rate of diagnosing without actual test. But tests anyway.jerry_{April 21, 2020
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The Navy is delaying plans to begin moving sailors back onboard the aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt after crew members continued to test positive for the coronavirus after isolation, according to Navy officials. Navy leadership is temporarily halting post-quarantine testing and is extending sailors' isolation more than three weeks after the Roosevelt was forced to dock in Guam on March 27, according to a memo viewed by POLITICO. Navy leadership took the steps after a number of sailors tested positive for the novel coronavirus even after their 14-day isolation period, three crew members told POLITICO. Some of the sailors who recently tested positive had previously tested negative, one Navy official said.rhampton7_{April 21, 2020
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National Review It took twelve months and 61 million infections for the H1N1 swine flu to kill 12,500 Americans in 2009–10. The Centers for Disease Control estimated that the seasonal flu killed 34,200 Americans during the 2018–19 flu season. In 2019, car crashes killed 38,800 Americans. As for the new coronavirus? On March 20, the death toll in the United States was 225. By April 20, the coronavirus had killed more than 42,000 Americans. But as Rich Lowry pointed out last week, “if we are going to have 60,000 deaths with people not leaving their homes for more than a month, the number of deaths obviously would have been higher — much higher — if everyone had gone about business as usual.” While there are 800,000 confirmed coronavirus cases in the United States — that’s 0.24 percent of the U.S. population — former FDA commissioner Scott Gottlieb has noted that anywhere between 1 percent and 5 percent of Americans may have actually already been infected with the virus. But that’s far short of the 50 percent to 70 percent required to achieve herd immunity. The seasonal flu, by contrast, infected 12 percent of the American population last year because we have a flu vaccine and some more immunity from previous infections.rhampton7_{April 21, 2020
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@ortho, more Americans died today from Covid 19 than died from the attacks on 9/11. In one day, Covid 19 killed more US citizens. And yet there are some people who are still trying to minimize it. It boggles the mind. Politics can make people say the craziest things.Jim Thibodeau_{April 21, 2020
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Kraft Heinz says some workers at a western Michigan facility in West Bloomfield Township are quarantined after two tested positive for COVID-19 and three others are presumed to have the virus. Spokesman Michael Mullen says the food production plant in Holland was closed Sunday for cleaning and reopened Monday. A union representing 227 employees at the facility says Kraft Heinz has been slow to provide personal protective equipment to workers and has tied bonus pay to attendance, thus encouraging workers to work when they are sick. It says workers were told to use vacation days for quarantine after exposure to infected colleagues. Mullen says this is no longer the case.rhampton7_{April 21, 2020
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Vancouver Coastal Health says 28 employees at United Poultry Company Ltd., an East Vancouver chicken processing plant, have tested positive for the COVID-19 virus. She said it is not clear at this time whether the virus was spread through contact during work, or within a break room. "There was evidence at the plant that employees did have access to gloves and some plastic face coverings," she said. "But we have identified that the plans that were in place were inadequate or were not appropriately executed."rhampton7_{April 21, 2020
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