Part III: Pass me a Corona!

@John_a_designer:

Indeed, if morality is nothing more than personal beliefs...

It's even worse. Morals are chemicals. Truthfreedom

JVL, I'm happy to keep talking. Perhaps you can ignore those with whom you aren't making any headway. EDTA

During Saturday evening's [4/18/20] White House Coronavirus Task Force press briefing, Dr. Deborah Birx showed a chart comparing the number of Wuhan coronavirus deaths across the globe. At the bottom of the chart was China, with a reported 0.33 deaths per 100,000, something we know has to be a blatant lie… “When you are the first country to have an outbreak, you really have a moral obligation to the world to not only talk about it but provide that information that is critical to the rest of the world…”

https://townhall.com/tipsheet/bethbaumann/2020/04/18/dr-birx-shreds-china-if-an-outbreak-begins-in-your-country-you-have-a-moral-ob-n2567179 Moral obligation? According to many of our regular interlocutors, most of whom appear to be moral relativists/ subjectivists, there is no such thing as moral obligation. Indeed, if morality is nothing more than personal beliefs and opinions, how can there be any real binding moral obligation? In Chinese culture it’s important not to cause someone else to “lose face.” So from a moral relativist POV the reason Chinese failed to admit that they initially withheld information or covered up what they knew about Covid 19 is understandable because being truthful would have caused them to lose face. In other words, to put it in American slang, if your screw-up could cause you to lose face you’re justified in lying about it. That’s just the way their culture is and who are we to say that their “morality” is any worse than our “morality.” Morality is all relative. Therefore any kind of so-called moral obligation is just a myth. john_a_designer

@JVL Ah. And according to you, telling someone that their behavior is 'repulsive' is not casting judgement. You said you understand logic? Truthfreedom

@ JVL So you find certain topics 'weird' and 'bizarre' but you do not know why. You are then an irrational being that dislikes things for 'no reason'. The rest of your posts: - You whining. - You reading people's minds. - You explaining how cute you are. - You spouting non-sense. - You dictating UD's policies. - You wasting electricity/ being boring. A person that can not offer reasons about why he/she has an opinion, is, by definition, irrational. You do not address the arguments. Again: you can not logically explain why certain sexual behaviors are 'fine' and why others are not. You are ruled by your emotions. And you said you would not engage with me. You make 0 sense. Truthfreedom

Vividbleu: The problem certainly is the human heart. I don't understand what a "far-right" extremist represents. I can't take my positions and then make them extreme. They would all break down at some point. Is a racist suppose to represent the "far-right"? The KKK? To me, this is an absurd position. Taking the conservative position to an 'extreme' would look more like unfettered capitalism, with all concern for others seen as irrelevant. This 'extreme' would be an apt one. But I don't think we see too many of them. I suppose that a brand of society unshackled from government regulation is another type of "far-right" extremism. A Libertarian gone wild might represent this. But, again, I don't see too many of those. They certainly don't coaslesce into "groups." But, I guess I see what you're saying about "anarchists" on the right and "tyrants" on the Left: these are the two excesses to be avoided. Yet, notably, there are everyday examples of the Far Left/Left (can you really differentiate these?): Maduro in Venezuela. Castro in Cuba. Etc. Where do we see any form of anarchy in place in the world that represents a rightist extreme? I can't think of any. Nonetheless, virtue is in the mean, and any "far" positions should therefore be avoided. I was born in 1950. I'm not sure that the positions on political and economic matters I had in the 60's are any different than they are now. But, if you were on the Left, if you were a liberal in the 60's, wow, what changes! Gay marriage would be permitted. Abortions would be performed. Divorce should be easy. Premarital sex is OK. Transsexualism is now accepted, leading to boys using girl's restrooms. These are all big changes. So, if there is any extremism evident in our world, it is basically found on the Left. Liberals have swerved leftward; conservatives believe pretty much the same thing as always. Isn't that what "Conservatism" means. So, if there is polarization in our political system, it's not going to come from "conservatives." Conservatism lauds commons sense; liberalism lauds elite thinking. Elite thinking can lead you anywhere; common sense doesn't change much since human nature is rather stable. Just some thoughts. But, yes, Vividbleau, the problem is in the human heart. That's why religion ends up being so important. And, of course, by extension, a consistent set of ethical principles. PaV

Kairosfocus: I will simply note I have already suggested need to tone down rhetorical voltage. I'm not the one to call someone else a liar. I'm not the one who continually misrepresents someone else's opinion. I'm not the one who keeps harping on and on about things like necrophilia. I am trying really hard to be respectful and establish a meaningful dialogue. I think that is important. I think we need to acknowledge our common ground and then really listen to each other so we can make progress on the issues where we differ. But I find that I am frequently attacked and vilified by other commenters on this forum. I am trying to continue to be polite and kind (although I do admit being pretty sarcastic with Truthfreedom because he is so relentless) and I get very little support for my efforts. If Uncommon Descent is just an echo chamber for certain Christian views of ID, cosmology and ethics then so be it. It's not my blog so I cannot dictate its stance. BUT, if it's meant to be a forum for discussion and exploration of ideas and differing views then I think a more conciliatory approach would be in order. I'll leave it up to you to decide. JVL

Truthfreedom: So you can not support your argument and are deflecting. The truth is I find necrophilia weird and bizarre and I've never really thought much more about it. And since we agree on that reaction I do not understand why you keep harping on and on and on about it. So you can not support your argument and are deflecting. You agree with me so why are you so fixated on me supporting my argument? You've got some weird agenda going I think. AND, let's be honest, you have continually failed to support your opinion on the subject. Haven't you? Huh? Lol. You say incest and necrophilia are ‘repulsive’ and against the law but you are not casting judgement? An opinion is not the same as judgement. I, personally, find Picasso's artwork pretty eh. BUT that doesn't mean I consider it meaningless in the history of art. That's a separate issue. More deflecting. Emotions are not reasons. Emotions are not reasons? So, essentially, you're saying you cannot not justify the feelings you have for your spouse? (Assuming you have one.) Do you really want to go down that route? And now you live inside my head and you know my thoughts and intentions, although according to you, you do not do that. Quite contradictory. More emotions no, please! You're getting more and more strange in your statements. And more and more fascinated by my opinions on things like necrophilia. Perhaps you should really stand back and consider your seeming obsessions. JVL

PAV https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/17/influential-covid-19-model-uses-flawed-methods-shouldnt-guide-policies-critics-say/ It is interesting to notice how the philosophical divide on other things percolate down to other areas of thought as well. No surprise that one side trusts experts the other side not so much. One side trusts governments and want more of it the other side doesn’t . One sides policy proposals it seems in every case includes restrictions on liberty the other side resists. I believe inside the heart of every progressive is a tyrant just dying to get out and inside the heart of every far right extremist is an anarchist dying to get out. Vivid vividbleau

We've been at this for a month now. My predictions have been wrong, but not wildly wrong. My concerns have, for the most part, all been borne out. There is very little left to be said. Now, death figures and cases of Covid-19 are faulty, unreliable, and probably being maniuplated for political (money) purposes. There's no sense even trying to make sense of the numbers with the craziness that has entered the system: people trying to justify what was done and trying to hurt Trump politically because the lockdown hurts his chances in November. Alas. Heaven help us. A few articles: (1) A rundown on how unreliable models have been in the past (especially Neil Ferguson's) and how we should have never relied on them for forming policy. (2) This faulty models include that of Washington's IHME model. (3) The WHO told us that this virus was as virulent as the Spanish Flu. They are way, way wrong. This was exactly the point I was making from the start and for which abuse was hurled my way. Does anybody regret that now? Should we not have tried to reason our way through things instead of panicking? (4) From the beginning, I questioned whether the "shelter-in-place" shutdown of our economy was wise. With hindsight, it looks more and more to have been unwise, but, with the ill-informed 'opinons' of our 'experts' flying around, it was necessary. New York City is a complete outlier to what happened in the USA. New York City should have been shutdown early, but it's so wise mayor, Bill de Blasio, instead told the citizens of his city to go out and have fun. Has a liberal done anything wise in the last century? Nope, I didn't think so either. (5) As to the unreliability of present-day science, you can read >here. And, lastly, (6) For perspective: the Hong Kong Flu from the late 60's killed an equivalent (with today's US population) of 165,000 people. This virus hasn't reached the level of an average world-wide flu season. Should we blame the media for the panic that has set in? Are they completely incapable of sorting through things? As I predicted nearly a week ago, liberal governors are loathe to "set their people free." Liberalism is the enemy of wisdom; it sees only one "good" at a time--the one that liberalism chooses to look at at that particular moment. And to this "good," all else must be subservient. Evil is not the absence of good, it is the choice of a lesser good when greater goods are options. In this sense, liberals are evil. They're fanatics. They will pound you over the head with their "good" until you cry "uncle." And, if you resist them, this makes you the evil one. Heaven help us. How do we know that the Pharisees of Jesus' time were liberals? Because Jesus says of them: "You say you see, and so your blindness remains." I can only hope that this sad moment in our history serves to make clear the totalitarian instincts of those who are left of center. We can now see that socialism and totalitarianism are but a breath away. As Reagan said (to paraphrase) tyranny is only a generation away. Can you say, "AOC"? PaV

@ Kairosfocus: Ok. :) Truthfreedom

@JVL

I probably should have just said “you should try and represent what I have said”. But, of course, you will interpret anything I say in the way that best reflects on your view instead of trying to be respectful and sincere and actually wanting to have a dialogue.

And now you live inside my head and you know my thoughts and intentions, although according to you, you do not do that. Quite contradictory. More emotions no, please! Truthfreedom

@JVL

I wouldn’t say so. But I’ll wait and see if you really want to have a serious and respectful conversation about that topic instead of just scoring points. Your call.

More deflecting. Emotions are not reasons. Truthfreedom

@JVL

I try not to; I like to respect other people’s privacy. It seems like you’d rather peer into everyone’s bedroom and cast judgement on them.

Huh? Lol. You say incest and necrophilia are 'repulsive' and against the law but you are not casting judgement? Truthfreedom

TF & JVL (etc), I will simply note I have already suggested need to tone down rhetorical voltage. Beyond, I note on roots of law by citing a classic discussion:

—Marcus [in de Legibus, introductory remarks,. C1 BC, being Cicero himself]: . . . the subject of our present discussion . . . comprehends the universal principles of equity and law. In such a discussion therefore on the great moral law of nature, the practice of the civil law can occupy but an insignificant and subordinate station. For according to our idea, we shall have to explain the true nature of moral justice, which is congenial and correspondent [36]with the true nature of man.

[--> Note, how justice and our built in nature as a morally governed class of creatures are highlighted; thus framing the natural law frame: recognising built-in law that we do not create nor can we repeal, which then frames a sound understanding of justice. Without such an anchor, law inevitably reduces to the sort of ruthless, nihilistic might- and- manipulation- make- "right,"- "truth,"- "knowledge,"- "law"- and- "justice"- etc power struggle and chaos Plato warned against in The Laws Bk X.]

We shall have to examine those principles of legislation by which all political states should be governed. And last of all, shall we have to speak of those laws and customs which are framed for the use and convenience of particular peoples, which regulate the civic and municipal affairs of the citizens, and which are known by the title of civil laws. Quintus [his real-life brother]. —You take a noble view of the subject, my brother, and go to the fountain–head of moral truth, in order to throw light on the whole science of jurisprudence: while those who confine their legal studies to the civil law too often grow less familiar with the arts of justice than with those of litigation. Marcus. —Your observation, my Quintus, is not quite correct. It is not so much the science of law that produces litigation, as the ignorance of it, (potius ignoratio juris litigiosa est quam scientia) . . . . With respect to the true principle of justice, many learned men have maintained that it springs from Law. I hardly know if their opinion be not correct, at least, according to their own definition; for “Law (say they) is the highest reason, implanted in nature, which prescribes those things which ought to be done, and forbids the contrary.” This, they think, is apparent from the converse of the proposition; because this same reason, when it [37]is confirmed and established in men’s minds, is the law of all their actions. They therefore conceive that the voice of conscience is a law, that moral prudence is a law, whose operation is to urge us to good actions, and restrain us from evil ones. They think, too, that the Greek name for law (NOMOS), which is derived from NEMO, to distribute, implies the very nature of the thing, that is, to give every man his due. [--> this implies a definition of justice as the due balance of rights, freedoms and responsibilities] For my part, I imagine that the moral essence of law is better expressed by its Latin name, (lex), which conveys the idea of selection or discrimination. According to the Greeks, therefore, the name of law implies an equitable distribution of goods: according to the Romans, an equitable discrimination between good and evil. The true definition of law should, however, include both these characteristics. And this being granted as an almost self–evident proposition, the origin of justice is to be sought in the divine law of eternal and immutable morality. This indeed is the true energy of nature, the very soul and essence of wisdom, the test of virtue and vice.

KF kairosfocus

@JVL

Gosh, you’ve really thought this through. I haven’t given it much thought, not nearly so much as you have clearly.

So you can not support your argument and are deflecting. Truthfreedom

@130 JVL

True, or they might find the subject as fascinating as you do.

So you can not support your argument and are deflecting. Truthfreedom

Truthfreedom: Disgusting: according to you. Other people may like/ enjoy it. True, or they might find the subject as fascinating as you do. Unsanitary: not if you wear protective clothes. Gosh, you've really thought this through. I haven't given it much thought, not nearly so much as you have clearly. Against the law: appeal to the law fallacy (again)` Well, it is against the law. By the way, you haven't said why you find it verboten. Just saying. I've asked you several times and you keep ignoring the query. Violates people’s privacy. Lol. Dead people care about their privacy? I did say later they cannot give their consent but you conveniently ignored that comment. Sex between consenting adults. Your logic. Who are you to tell other people how to live their sexuality. I try not to; I like to respect other people's privacy. It seems like you'd rather peer into everyone's bedroom and cast judgement on them. And cultural norms change, so please do not be so archaic. Do sex between siblings hurt you? No. Between parents and (adult) children? No. None of your business. According to you, morals are subjective. Gosh, you seem to have figured this all out really well. So what are the arguments against the case you have presented so succinctly? Yes, laws are created and implemented. The important question is: where is the basis for those laws? Is there any or are they created capriciously? Randomly as in ‘evolution’? Like mutations? I wouldn't say so. But I'll wait and see if you really want to have a serious and respectful conversation about that topic instead of just scoring points. Your call. Ohh. Cute! So you KNOW what other UD members think and you can correctly interpret what they write but I do not understand them? I probably should have just said "you should try and represent what I have said". But, of course, you will interpret anything I say in the way that best reflects on your view instead of trying to be respectful and sincere and actually wanting to have a dialogue. Do you live inside other people’s heads? Again you are sounding quite totalitarian. Omniscient even. Gosh no. I never, ever pretend to speak for other people. Nor do I attempt to tell other people they are wrong and I am right because of some old book or liturgical practice. I understand you feel that you have some God-given and immutable moral standard that guides you and that everything else must be wrong and stupid. I get that. But what I don't get is that I hear lots of Christians making that claim and yet they disagree with each other. So, as an outsider, how can I judge wether or not there is an eternal objective standard or not? If there is no general agreement on what it says then does it really exist? JVL

@JVL

Whatever. You should try harder to factually represent what people have actually said.

Ohh. Cute! So you KNOW what other UD members think and you can correctly interpret what they write but I do not understand them? How so? Do you live inside other people's heads? Again you are sounding quite totalitarian. Omniscient even. Truthfreedom

@JVL

Yeah, sometimes that happens. Which is why societies produce laws and methods of enforcement.

Yes, laws are created and implemented. The important question is: where is the basis for those laws? Is there any or are they created capriciously? Randomly as in 'evolution'? Like mutations? Truthfreedom

@JVL

Except, again, I never said that about siblings.

Sex between consenting adults. Your logic. Who are you to tell other people how to live their sexuality. And cultural norms change, so please do not be so archaic. Do sex between siblings hurt you? No. Between parents and (adult) children? No. None of your business. According to you, morals are subjective. Truthfreedom

@JVL

(Necrophilia) It’s disgusting, unsanitary, against the law and violates the person’s privacy. Why do you think it’s wrong?

Disgusting: according to you. Other people may like/ enjoy it. Unsanitary: not if you wear protective clothes. Against the law: appeal to the law fallacy (again) Violates people's privacy. Lol. Dead people care about their privacy? Truthfreedom

Folks, First, clusters are expected with this disease. As for the exchanges onward, they simply bring to mind two warnings by Plato i/l/o the collapse of Athens:

Ath [in The Laws, Bk X 2,360 ya]. . . .[The avant garde philosophers and poets, c. 360 BC] say that fire and water, and earth and air [i.e the classical "material" elements of the cosmos], all exist by nature and chance, and none of them by art . . . [such that] all that is in the heaven, as well as animals and all plants, and all the seasons come from these elements, not by the action of mind, as they say, or of any God, or from art, but as I was saying, by nature and chance only [ --> that is, evolutionary materialism is ancient and would trace all things to blind chance and mechanical necessity] . . . . [Thus, they hold] that the principles of justice have no existence at all in nature, but that mankind are always disputing about them and altering them; and that the alterations which are made by art and by law have no basis in nature, but are of authority for the moment and at the time at which they are made.-

[ --> Relativism, too, is not new; complete with its radical amorality rooted in a worldview that has no foundational IS that can ground OUGHT, leading to an effectively arbitrary foundation only for morality, ethics and law: accident of personal preference, the ebbs and flows of power politics, accidents of history and and the shifting sands of manipulated community opinion driven by "winds and waves of doctrine and the cunning craftiness of men in their deceitful scheming . . . " cf a video on Plato's parable of the cave; from the perspective of pondering who set up the manipulative shadow-shows, why.]

These, my friends, are the sayings of wise men, poets and prose writers, which find a way into the minds of youth. They are told by them that the highest right is might,

[ --> Evolutionary materialism -- having no IS that can properly ground OUGHT -- leads to the promotion of amorality on which the only basis for "OUGHT" is seen to be might (and manipulation: might in "spin") . . . ]

and in this way the young fall into impieties, under the idea that the Gods are not such as the law bids them imagine; and hence arise factions [ --> Evolutionary materialism-motivated amorality "naturally" leads to continual contentions and power struggles influenced by that amorality at the hands of ruthless power hungry nihilistic agendas], these philosophers inviting them to lead a true life according to nature, that is,to live in real dominion over others [ --> such amoral and/or nihilistic factions, if they gain power, "naturally" tend towards ruthless abuse and arbitrariness . . . they have not learned the habits nor accepted the principles of mutual respect, justice, fairness and keeping the civil peace of justice, so they will want to deceive, manipulate and crush -- as the consistent history of radical revolutions over the past 250 years so plainly shows again and again], and not in legal subjection to them [--> nihilistic will to power not the spirit of justice and lawfulness].

And,

It is not too hard to figure out that our civilisation is in deep trouble and is most likely headed for shipwreck. (And of course, that sort of concern is dismissed as “apocalyptic,” or neurotic pessimism that refuses to pause and smell the roses.) Plato’s Socrates spoke to this sort of situation, long since, in the ship of state parable in The Republic, Bk VI:

>>[Soc.] I perceive, I said, that you are vastly amused at having plunged me into such a hopeless discussion; but now hear the parable, and then you will be still more amused at the meagreness of my imagination: for the manner in which the best men are treated in their own States is so grievous that no single thing on earth is comparable to it; and therefore, if I am to plead their cause, I must have recourse to fiction, and put together a figure made up of many things, like the fabulous unions of goats and stags which are found in pictures. Imagine then a fleet or a ship in which there is a captain [–> often interpreted, ship’s owner] who is taller and stronger than any of the crew, but he is a little deaf and has a similar infirmity in sight, and his knowledge of navigation is not much better. [= The people own the community and in the mass are overwhelmingly strong, but are ill equipped on the whole to guide, guard and lead it] The sailors are quarrelling with one another about the steering – every one is of opinion that he has a right to steer [= selfish ambition to rule and dominate], though he has never learned the art of navigation and cannot tell who taught him or when he learned, and will further assert that it cannot be taught, and they are ready to cut in pieces any one who says the contrary. They throng about the captain, begging and praying him to commit the helm to them [–> kubernetes, steersman, from which both cybernetics and government come in English]; and if at any time they do not prevail, but others are preferred to them, they kill the others or throw them overboard [ = ruthless contest for domination of the community], and having first chained up the noble captain’s senses with drink or some narcotic drug [ = manipulation and befuddlement, cf. the parable of the cave], they mutiny and take possession of the ship and make free with the stores; thus, eating and drinking, they proceed on their voyage in such a manner as might be expected of them [–> Cf here Luke’s subtle case study in Ac 27]. Him who is their partisan and cleverly aids them in their plot for getting the ship out of the captain’s hands into their own whether by force or persuasion [–> Nihilistic will to power on the premise of might and manipulation making ‘right’ ‘truth’ ‘justice’ ‘rights’ etc], they compliment with the name of sailor, pilot, able seaman, and abuse the other sort of man, whom they call a good-for-nothing; but that the true pilot must pay attention to the year and seasons and sky and stars and winds, and whatever else belongs to his art, if he intends to be really qualified for the command of a ship, and that he must and will be the steerer, whether other people like or not-the possibility of this union of authority with the steerer’s art has never seriously entered into their thoughts or been made part of their calling. Now in vessels which are in a state of mutiny and by sailors who are mutineers, how will the true pilot be regarded? Will he not be called by them a prater, a star-gazer, a good-for-nothing? [Ad.] Of course, said Adeimantus. [Soc.] Then you will hardly need, I said, to hear the interpretation of the figure, which describes the true philosopher in his relation to the State [ --> here we see Plato's philosoppher-king emerging]; for you understand already. [Ad.] Certainly. [Soc.] Then suppose you now take this parable to the gentleman who is surprised at finding that philosophers have no honour in their cities; explain it to him and try to convince him that their having honour would be far more extraordinary. [Ad.] I will. [Soc.] Say to him, that, in deeming the best votaries of philosophy to be useless to the rest of the world, he is right; but also tell him to attribute their uselessness to the fault of those who will not use them, and not to themselves. The pilot should not humbly beg the sailors to be commanded by him –that is not the order of nature; neither are ‘the wise to go to the doors of the rich’ –the ingenious author of this saying told a lie –but the truth is, that, when a man is ill, whether he be rich or poor, to the physician he must go, and he who wants to be governed, to him who is able to govern. [--> the issue of competence and character as qualifications to rule] The ruler who is good for anything ought not to beg his subjects to be ruled by him [ --> down this road lies the modern solution: a sound, well informed people will seek sound leaders, who will not need to manipulate or bribe or worse, and such a ruler will in turn be checked by the soundness of the people, cf. US DoI, 1776]; although the present governors of mankind are of a different stamp; they may be justly compared to the mutinous sailors, and the true helmsmen to those who are called by them good-for-nothings and star-gazers. [Ad.] Precisely so, he said. [Soc] For these reasons, and among men like these, philosophy, the noblest pursuit of all, is not likely to be much esteemed by those of the opposite faction [--> the sophists, the Demagogues, Alcibiades and co, etc]; not that the greatest and most lasting injury is done to her by her opponents, but by her own professing followers, the same of whom you suppose the accuser to say, that the greater number of them are arrant rogues, and the best are useless; in which opinion I agreed [--> even among the students of the sound state (here, political philosophy and likely history etc.), many are of unsound motivation and intent, so mere education is not enough, character transformation is critical]. [Ad.] Yes. [Soc.] And the reason why the good are useless has now been explained? [Ad.] True. [Soc.] Then shall we proceed to show that the corruption of the majority is also unavoidable [--> implies a need for a corruption-restraining minority providing proverbial salt and light, cf. Ac 27, as well as justifying a governing structure turning on separation of powers, checks and balances], and that this is not to be laid to the charge of philosophy any more than the other? [Ad.] By all means. [Soc.] And let us ask and answer in turn, first going back to the description of the gentle and noble nature.[ -- > note the character issue] Truth, as you will remember, was his leader, whom he followed always and in all things [ --> The spirit of truth as a marker]; failing in this, he was an impostor, and had no part or lot in true philosophy [--> the spirit of truth is a marker, for good or ill] . . . >>

(There is more than an echo of this in Acts 27, a real world case study. [Luke, a physician, was an educated Greek with a taste for subtle references.] This blog post, on soundness in policy, will also help)

If we refuse to learn from history and cling to the sort of evolutionary materialism, linked relativism, cynicism and factionalism that seems to have swept Athens through the impact of plague from 430 - 426 BC, we doom ourselves to repeat big mistakes with predictably catastrophic consequences. KF kairosfocus

Truthfreedom: According to you, having sex with your relatives and dead people is ok. Except, of course, I never said so. That's what Kairosfocus calls agi-prop strawman tactics. You can not offer any logical explanation as to why it is not It's disgusting, unsanitary, against the law and violates the person's privacy. Why do you think it's wrong? Following your mantra, as long as it ‘consensual and between adults’, it is fine. With your siblings too I suppose Except, again, I never said that about siblings. ‘Consensual and between adults’. Silly logic to support homosexuality leads to silly outcomes. How does that lead to necrophilia? Can a corpse give consent? Not that I've noticed. Speaking of silly, you are a grown-up who admits darwinism is a stupid fairy-tale but you like ridiculous fairy-tales, so who cares. Except, of course, I never said 'darwinism' is a stupid fairy-tale. Ah. And according to you, killing your children ‘enhances your reproductive success’ is a ‘scientific’ explanation. Except, of course, I didn't say so. I pointed out that someone else said it was AN explanation but I didn't support the statement. Now cry while you eat your birdseed. And do not fart too much, please. Your attempts at logic are enough. Whatever. You should try harder to factually represent what people have actually said. A stupid assertion with no proof. Typical, you commit all the logical fallacies available. And who are you to dictate what is Denyse’s role? And to dictate what we should agree on or not? Heil JVL! Having an opinion is NOT dictating! Geeze. Justify (not assert) why incest and necrophilia are ‘hideous’ and ‘awful’. You first. Show me where your objective moral code says so. Was not everything part of the ‘cultural context and relative’? What you find ‘awful’, other people might find it ‘fantastic’. Yeah, sometimes that happens. Which is why societies produce laws and methods of enforcement. Hitler found ‘fantastic’ killing millions of jews. So good that he labelled it ‘the final solution’. And Stalin killing millions of his citizens. And Pol Pot. And Mao…Nothing ‘hideous’ for them. And they're all gone and their regimes are (almost) universally condemned. So . . . I do not understand why you insist on carrying on a conversation about things we agree on. You seem to think that if you can 'prove' my values are inconsistent you've won somehow. Why you don't want to accentuate our common ground and find ways we can work together to solve some of the problems society faces is beyond me. JVL

Tyson has confirmed some of its employees have tested positive for COVID-19 at its plant in Perry, IA. "For privacy out of our team members, we are not disclosing the number of confirmed cases," said Liz Croston, a spokesperson for Tyson. "We're working hard to protect our team members during this ever-changing situation, while also ensuring we continue fulfilling our critical role of helping feed people across the country." rhampton7

The situation facing workers at the Cargill Protein facility in High River, Alta. has gotten much worse, officials confirmed Friday. The province announced there are now 358 confirmed cases of coronavirus among the workers and their households throughout southern Alberta. rhampton7

Good finance people at an import dealership can make $250-300k, which is about 10x what you make as a STEM grad student. Jim Thibodeau

If you graduate from a good STEM program, after about 15 years in the world you’re invited back for an alumnI dinner with the graduating seniors of your STEM program, so you can give them wisdom about the world. I’m going to be getting those emails in about 6 mos and I’m not sure they’re going to like having me back. “Fuck all the AFM stuff and solubility curves and time-dependent protein conformation—go sell expensive shit to people who are impressed by good clothes and good posture. Find an Audi or a Mercedes dealership and explain that you already know basic financing math. You’ll make a fortune!” Jim Thibodeau

Anybody in commission sales will tell you, it’s the easiest customers you’re most friendly with, that you make the most money from. Honestly I’ve got about 2 more years of learning this trade before I’m going to be over in Jax trying my hand at selling my favorite cars in the world. Jim Thibodeau

@rhampton dammit you’re reminding me that I forgot to pick up some burgers at the store today, I meant to because I’m aware of all these plant closures because of the virus. I did get a bunch of turkey, hopefully not from one of those plants. My salary is decent but my big ass commission checks involve the appearance of health and a sparkling personality. On the plus side, a lot of my customers are now wearing masks and declining to sit down at the discussion table so I have to just hold my iPad and do everything standing up. Well that’s OK, if customers are feeling a little time pressured they’re less likely to pull back and say they have to talk to their husband/wife etc. my company is sanitizing all tables chairs and doors between every customer, so I’m not too worried. But we’ve got some new software that allows people to do transactions without me touching their debit card or them signing anything etc. it all involves cell phone timestamped text messages, but it’s kind of tricky to get the hang of. I’m just so used to sliding things across the table, it’s a learning curve. Jim Thibodeau

The number of confirmed COVID-19 cases rocketed up in western Kansas this week from infection clusters involving at least six private businesses, state health officials said. Kansas Department of Health and Environment Secretary Lee Norman during Gov. Laura Kelly’s daily news conference on Thursday noted that there are now 35 patient clusters, up from 26 on Wednesday, and that the category of private businesses has seen the most growth. There are now 13 clusters in private business statewide. Norman declined to say whether the clusters involved meat packing plants “until we get our investigation team in and sort through it.” rhampton7

The North Dakota National Guard tested hundreds of people on Thursday, April 16, at LM Wind Power, a General Electric-owned company where at least nine people had tested positive for the disease, which is caused by a novel coronavirus that’s swept across the country. “While this is still under investigation and we don’t have the final results, we know that this is a very serious event,” Steven Weiser, the president of Altru Health System, said at a virtual city press conference in which he pleaded with residents to stay home, avoid touching their face, wash their hands and self-isolate, if possible, especially if they or a member of their family is considered an “essential” worker. “The potential impact we now face has the ability to overwhelm our health care workers and our health system .... This is a big deal. We need you to take this seriously and respond appropriately.” Guard members and other healthcare workers tested 425 people, 15 of which have already come back positive, Weiser said. About 880 people work at LM, mostly in shifts of 100 to 150. In total, they, plus their families, mean that about 2,500 people were in potentially direct contact with the virus. Test results typically come back from the North Dakota Department of Health lab in Bismarck within 24 to 28 hours. rhampton7

An outbreak of COVID-19 has forced the Ogle County Health Department to order the closure of Hormel’s Rochelle Foods plant in Rochelle, IL. As of Friday, 24 cases have been linked to the facility: 19 in Ogle County, three in Whiteside County and two in Winnebago County. Rochelle City Manager Jeff Fiegenschuh said that the plant employs 800 people and over 900 if you count contractors. He also spoke to what will follow if the plant chooses not to comply with the closure order. "They don't have a choice," Fiegenschuh said. "If they don't comply, the county will seek a court order." rhampton7

The ConAgra plant in Marshall, Missouri, is temporarily closing after a number of employees were diagnosed with COVID-19. A company spokesperson said that 20 employees are sick with coronavirus and that the closure is necessary to maintain cleanliness at the facility. “The health and safety of our employees is our top priority. In our facility in Marshall, Missouri, we have been using social distancing techniques, screening temperatures and increased sanitization in common areas to prevent the spread of COVID-19. Unfortunately, approximately 20 employees have been diagnosed with COVID-19 so we have made the decision to suspend operations at the facility until April 27,” said company spokesman Dan Hare. rhampton7

“Why is it that the theists are the most dogmatic and least able to compromise? Is that why they see us the same way? That’s the way they view the world: it’s all black and white, you’re with us or against us.” Well it’s not all theists, in fairness, I know a few published and well-respected evolutionary biologists who are theists. But people who are intellectually insecure, and have a reason to be, often like to reduce the world to black and white, because it makes them feel like they know things, and reduces their anxiety. Jim Thibodeau

More than a dozen Iowa elected officials on Friday implored Tyson Fresh Meats to close their Waterloo, IA pork processing plant, saying the coronavirus is spreading among workers and is endangering both employees and the surrounding community. The Waterloo area officials also accused Gov. Kim Reynolds of misleading Iowans on the seriousness of the outbreak among the nearly 3,000 workers at the plant and for failure to take more aggressive action. Reynolds said at her daily news conference Friday that the state’s goal is to avoid closing the plant, which can process 19,000 pigs a day. She said the state is working with Tyson to test employees at facilities in Columbus Junction and Waterloo, and to trace their connections to others to identify community spread. Reynolds said 2,700 tests were sent to the Waterloo plant and they will be processed at a state laboratory over the weekend. rhampton7

@105 Bornagain77

I, for one, appreciate her (Denyse's) time and talent very much.

Me too. And her collaborations/ articles at Mindmatters and Evolution News are fantastic. :) Truthfreedom

@JVL

Seriously though: why bring up hideous and awful topics which we all agree on?

Justify (not assert) why incest and necrophilia are 'hideous' and 'awful'. Was not everything part of the 'cultural context and relative'? What you find 'awful', other people might find it 'fantastic'. Hitler found 'fantastic' killing millions of jews. So good that he labelled it 'the final solution'. And Stalin killing millions of his citizens. And Pol Pot. And Mao... Nothing 'hideous' for them. Truthfreedom

@JVL

Why is it that the theists are the most dogmatic and least able to compromise.

A stupid assertion with no proof. Typical, you commit all the logical fallacies available. And who are you to dictate what is Denyse's role? And to dictate what we should agree on or not? Heil JVL! Truthfreedom

@JVL According to you, having sex with your relatives and dead people is ok. You can not offer any logical explanation as to why it is not. Following your mantra, as long as it 'consensual and between adults', it is fine. With your siblings too I suppose. 'Consensual and between adults'. Silly logic to support homosexuality leads to silly outcomes. Speaking of silly, you are a grown-up who admits darwinism is a stupid fairy-tale but you like ridiculous fairy-tales, so who cares. Ah. And according to you, killing your children 'enhances your reproductive success' is a 'scientific' explanation. A woman with 0 children who gets pregnant and kills her child is 'improving' her reproductive success! Now se has 0 children! Very succesful! :) Now cry while you eat your birdseed. And do not fart too much, please. Your attempts at logic are enough. Truthfreedom

JVL @ 99, >Why is it that the theists are the most dogmatic and least able to compromise?...It might even work except they can’t even agree amongst themselves over certain issues. I think it's because we have an absolute standard coming from a higher being to concern ourselves with. The problems begin when we presume to know too much, and get dogmatic about it. That is unfortunate, but hard to avoid, especially when we believe in- and care about truth. EDTA

Bornagain77: . it is not News job to keep you personally informed on Covid related news. She is retired from journalism and donates her time and talents to UD. I, for one, appreciate her time and talent very much. Fair point, I apologise. JVL

JVL. it is not News job to keep you personally informed on Covid related news. She is retired from journalism and donates her time and talents to UD. I, for one, appreciate her time and talent very much. If you are dissatisfied with News. I suggest you find another site to visit. bornagain77

The military is seeing a large increase in service members infected with coronavirus. 403 new troops were diagnosed with COVID-19 in one day. A majority of those cases came from the Army. That brings the total of infected service members to just under 3,000. On top of that, 817 military civilians, 653 dependents and 336 contractors have gotten the disease. The grand total of Defense Department related cases is about 4,700. To date there have been 19 fatalities. rhampton7

Burgers’ Smokehouse of California, MO now has six employees who have tested positive for COVID-19. According to a news release, Burgers’ Smokehouse is closed until Monday, April 20. Heather said a large portion of the town works at the meat plant. If the shutdown were to continue past April 20, she said the town would take a big hit. “We take our responsibility as part of the nation’s critical infrastructure seriously and will make every prudent effort to remain in operation during this ongoing crisis,” Burger said. “However, we feel it is important to shut down for a few days in order to further prepare our facility for the safe return of our people on Monday.” rhampton7

The United Food and Commercial Workers (UFCW) Local 663 announced that there were 19 cases of the coronavirus at the JBS USA pork plant in Worthington, MN and it is calling on JBS to "slow production speeds to allow for more social distancing on the line to keep workers safe." At a media briefing on Wednesday, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz said that he wants to test every worker at the state's food processing plants for the coronavirus as soon as possible, given how crucial they are for the food supply. rhampton7

Rhampton7: Cheers for doing what News/O'Leary should be doing: keeping us informed. JVL

Four employees of a Tyson Foods poultry plant in Georgia have died after becoming infected with the coronavirus, the company has confirmed. A spokesperson for the food giant said Friday that three of the employees worked inside the chicken processing plant in the town of Camilla, while the fourth person was employed in a supporting role on the same site. Tyson Foods did say how many workers there have tested positive for COVID-19, and the plant currently remains open. rhampton7

Ed George: I have read most of TF’s comments and I can’t distinguish them from a person talking to themselves in a mirror. I wonder if he's filming himself responding, dreaming of intellectual victories! Seriously though: why bring up hideous and awful topics which we all agree on? What's the point? Does he really want to argue about why we agree? Why not take such things as given and let us work towards solving problems instead of driving more and more wedges between us? Why is it that the theists are the most dogmatic and least able to compromise? Is that why they see us the same way? That's the way they view the world: it's all black and white, you're with us or against us. It might even work except they can't even agree amongst themselves over certain issues. JVL

BAE Systems has temporarily shut down part of its operations due to a coronavirus outbreak, a company spokesperson confirmed Friday afternoon. At least five employees of the West Manchester Township, PA plant tested positive for COVID-19, according to BAE spokesperson Alicia Gray. All five employees who tested positive worked in the same area. Gray could not confirm if any of the employees were hospitalized. The York County facility manufactures a mix of combat and amphibious vehicles for the U.S. military. rhampton7

Metro Health officials confirmed at least 90 COVID-19 cases at the Tyson Foods plant in Goodlettsville are continuing to monitor and investigate a cluster. A Tyson representative refused to share specifics about any employee's health. The company claimed they notify anyone who has been in close contact with the infected person and asks them to go home and self-quarantine. Tyson said they are restricting access to their facilities and implementing temperature checks of team members before they walk through the door. In some cases, they claim to be slowing production lines to practice social distancing. rhampton7

JVL

Gotta love someone who asks for answers and then doesn’t believe them. Why don’t they just talk to themselves in a mirror?

I have read most of TF's comments and I can't distinguish them from a person talking to themselves in a mirror. Ed George

Truthfreedom: ??????? Nice you didn't answer any of the questions posed to you. Nicely done! I must learn that trick. So according to you people can not find homosexuality weird because ‘it exists in nature’ and ‘consensual sex between adults is ok’. Why do you find it so objectionable? Is it hurting you in some way? Can you show me with some dolls how it hurts you? Why not consensual sex between adults who are blood related then? Incest exists in ‘nature’. And people can consent to it. If you choose to have sex with your father I promise not to tell anyone. Really. Now enter: appeal to the law (a logical fallacy) and ‘I do not like it’ (non-argument). What are your arguments then? Somehow you keep not saying. Curious. Maybe you don't have any objections . . . that makes sense based on your responses. Ah, and according to you, sex with dead people is not immoral, I never said did i? You're just making stuff up now. Anyway, don't let me distract you from your obsession. it’s just anti-hygienic. How cute. What if I told you I wear protective garments? Fine then? If you choose to do so I promise not to tell. Unless you take pictures. Have you taken pictures then? Naughty boy!! So you are admitting that darwinism is a fairy-tale and that you know it and have no problem believing non-sense. hahahahahahahahahahahahah You're not much of a psychic but you might have a career as a comedian. You said you would not take them. You are lying again. Gotta love someone who asks for answers and then doesn't believe them. Why don't they just talk to themselves in a mirror? JVL

JVL

At the moment, where I live, the therapies being disputed are not available so it’s not something I would have to decide upon.

You said you would not take them. You are lying again. Truthfreedom

@ JVL

Oh well, I guess I’ll just have to learn to live with that.

So you are admitting that darwinism is a fairy-tale and that you know it and have no problem believing non-sense. Truthfreedom

@JVL

I've got as much right as you do I suppose. How do you judge?

So according to you people can not find homosexuality weird because 'it exists in nature' and 'consensual sex between adults is ok'. Why not consensual sex between adults who are blood related then? Incest exists in 'nature'. And people can consent to it. Now enter: appeal to the law (a logical fallacy) and 'I do not like it' (non-argument). Ah, and according to you, sex with dead people is not immoral, it's just anti-hygienic. How cute. What if I told you I wear protective garments? Fine then? Truthfreedom

Ed George: TruthFreedom seems to have a hard-on for me. I don’t remember what he said yesterday yet he remembers what I said in January. Just be careful late at night if you're out walking the dog. And try not to be dead since we know Truthfreedom is really interested in necrophilia. Seriously, he brings it up a lot when no one else has mentioned it. I would never use it as a discussion point but he does, a lot. JVL

JVL

You seem upset, do you want to talk about it? When you’ve finished trawling through the whole thread looking for possible contradictions between two different people that is (and Ed didn’t endorse a point of view, he just noted it). Don’t let me interrupt you.

Joe Gallien, ET, TruthFreedom seems to have a hard-on for me. I don't remember what he said yesterday yet he remembers what I said in January. Ed George

The U.S. government has grown worried that millions of doses of hydroxychloroquine donated to the U.S. by Bayer for emergency use may have been produced at facilities that didn't meet the FDA's quality standards, sources told Reuters. After a 2015 inspection of Bayer's own Karachi plant, Pakistani regulators cited the facility for "gross failure" in its manufacturing processes for the drug, Reuters said. Another Resochin plant in India, run by Ipca Laboratories, has not been evaluated by the FDA, but the drugmaker has run afoul of the agency in inspections of other Indian plants that turn out chloroquine, hydroxychloroquine and their active ingredients. In late March, the FDA said it would lift a five-year ban on products from Ipca's Indian plants so the drugmaker could ship hydroxychloroquine sulphate and chloroquine phosphate APls along with hydroxychloroquine sulphate tablets to the U.S. That 2015 ban covered products from three Ipca manufacturing facilities because of rampant data manipulation. The FDA also cited a “cascade of failure” at one of the three plants, in Silvassa, India. rhampton7

@Ed CA did have cases before FL. But when national cases hit 14k CA locked down. FL waited til 275k cases and spring breakers had spread back all over the country to close. Jim Thibodeau

Truthfreedom: Again, who are you to judge what is ‘weird’ and ‘deviant’? I"ve got as much right as you do I suppose. How do you judge? Based on what exactly? What about you? Why do you think about such things so much? You seem almost obsessed with them. I don't think about any of it at all really to be honest. Not like you. What is your authority? Pretty much zero I'd say. Were not you a ‘moral’ relativist? Did you not endorse ‘consensual sex between adults’? Might have done. It's not something I think about a lot. Besides, there are laws about some of the issues you find so fascinating so I'll defer to those. Where do you get your morals from then? Are you Ed George’s lawyer, sweetheart? Nope, haven't passed the bar exam. Don't get fresh with me!! I know you want to but I'm not that kind of person. The man supports abortion and says ‘inclusive fitness’ is a good explanation. So? A good explanation is not the same as an endorsement is it? And I don't have to agree with him. Oh, sorry for being logical. Would you let one of your loved ones die of COVID-19 or not? Of course not. I can't "let" anyone die of COVID-19. At the moment, where I live, the therapies being disputed are not available so it's not something I would have to decide upon. As I've said over and over and over again, I'm happy to wait and see what the controlled tests say. But you keep wanting to hammer on the issue, what point are you trying to make? So you are ok with your faulty logic? Again, that is YOUR problem. That you love being irrational. Parrot, here is your birdseed. It could do with a bit more sesame to be honest. You’re not very good at reasoning. That explains you being an adult who believes in fairy-tales dressed as science (a. k.a. ‘darwinism’). Oh well, I guess I'll just have to learn to live with that. But if you'd care to debate whether or not some infinite series converge and to what value (an example of pure reasoning) I'd be happy to have a go. The rest of your post @84 is mindless garbage, so I won’t bother. And you're right because . . . What is the problem with necrophilia? Apart from your personal likes/ dislikes, that mean absolutely nothing. I didn't realise you were in favour of it! I find it disgusting and very likely to spread some nasty infections. Since you're so interested perhaps you should find someplace else to have a discussion about it. And, again, there are laws prohibiting it. If you'd like to contest those laws be my guest. A REASON would be nice. And what's your reason for your opinion? How do you come by it? Read it in a book perhaps? JVL

The rest of your post @84 is mindless garbage, so I won't bother. AGAIN: What is the problem with necrophilia? Apart from your personal likes/ dislikes, that mean absolutely nothing. A REASON would be nice. Truthfreedom

@JVL Again, who are you to judge what is 'weird' and 'deviant'? Based on what exactly? What is your authority? Were not you a 'moral' relativist? Did you not endorse 'consensual sex between adults'? --- Are you Ed George's lawyer, sweetheart? The man supports abortion and says 'inclusive fitness' is a good explanation. --- Would you let one of your loved ones die of COVID-19 or not? Of course not. --- So you are ok with your faulty logic? Again, that is YOUR problem. That you love being irrational. Parrot, here is your birdseed. --- You're not very good at reasoning. That explains you being an adult who believes in fairy-tales dressed as science (a. k.a. 'darwinism'). Truthfreedom

Truthfreedom: And who are you exactly to judge what is ‘weird’ and ‘deviant’? Are you disagreeing with my characterisation? I'll just make a note of that . . . Why is it then ‘deviant’ (cough cough) for two blood related adults to have consensual sex with each other? Has anyone actually done it or are you just making it up? You seem to have a very vivid imagination for such things. You continually bring up necrophilia as well . . . And please do not start again with your typical kindergarten cry-baby-you have an agenda-appeal to moderators attitude. Just wanting to see if there is a double standard. If your logic is faulty, that is YOUR problem, not mine. Deal with it. I'll be okay but thanks for your concern. That is what you hate. That your logic is stupid. I'm not a self-hater actually. Liar. If you or one of your loved ones were in the ICU, with the information we have right now related to these drugs, you would take them. You're not very good at mind reading, don't give up your day job. Liar. You seem upset, do you want to talk about it? When you've finished trawling through the whole thread looking for possible contradictions between two different people that is (and Ed didn't endorse a point of view, he just noted it). Don't let me interrupt you. It is good then to kill some of your children to ‘enhance your reproductive fitness’. Oh, and ‘interesting’ ???? This is moral bankruptcy. You converted "it is thought" to "it is good". How did you decide that was a correct conversion? JVL

@53 JVL

Since no one did actually make such an endorsement (killing your babies enhances your reproductive fitness)

Liar. Ed George:

Filial infanticide has been observed in many species and is thought to be done to enhance the survival of the offspring the parent already has. It is interesting that the majority of women who have an abortion, by a wide margin, already have children.

It is good then to kill some of your children to 'enhance your reproductive fitness'. Oh, and 'interesting' :) This is moral bankruptcy. https://uncommondescent.com/ud-newswatch-highlights/today-fri-jan-24th-2020-is-the-annual-march-for-life/ Comment #44. Truthfreedom

@JVL

I PERSONALLY would not take it or proscribe it without proper trials having been carried out.

Liar. If you or one of your loved ones were in the ICU, with the information we have right now related to these drugs, you would take them. Truthfreedom

@JVL

I will leave wondering why Truthfreedom is so fascinated by weird and deviant sexual practices for others to contemplate.

And who are you exactly to judge what is 'weird' and 'deviant'? Were not you the person that says that consensual sex between adults is ok? Why is it then 'deviant' (cough cough) for two blood related adults to have consensual sex with each other? And please do not start again with your typical kindergarten cry-baby-you have an agenda-appeal to moderators attitude. If your logic is faulty, that is YOUR problem, not mine. Deal with it. That is what you hate. That your logic is stupid. Truthfreedom

But California is not doing much better than Florida. Looking at people over 65, Florida has a lower death rate for this population than California. Or they did up til yesterday. jerry

One of the reasons California is doing much better than Florida, they took it seriously and locked down weeks before our low-IQ Republicans did.

To be fair, the pattern is more complicated than that. Florida actually shut down sooner than its first case than California did: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/democratic-and-gop-governors-enacted-stay-at-home-orders-on-the-same-timeline-but-all-holdouts-are-republicans/ Some of the difference are presumably because states with Republican governors tended to be hit later. Bob O'H

JVL, we continue to deal with noisy proxies, a common reality in addressing an emergency. How infections are tracked captures only the tip of the iceberg, where mild or asymptomatic infections will be material to true fatality rates, or even to initial spreading of the disease . . . recall, this was spotted clinically because of odd clustering in the expected flu season, in Wuhan. Likewise, was that person Jan 15 - 17 the true US patient zero, or could earlier cases lurk in flu data? Accounting for fatalities leads to issues regarding deaths caused by the novel disease vs those involving it. There is also the factor of somewhat accelerated, expected deaths -- which overlaps with the flu. Those are sausage factory issues that are not commonly debated publicly, but are comparable to constraints on executive and strategic decision-making under time-sensitive constraints. Our rationality is bounded, information is noisy and often partially conflicting, opinions of experts clash, every alternative comes with costs + risks + uncertainties (not just potential benefits), gaining further information is costly and may eat up time that we may not have in hand, etc. This is where sober minded prudence [as opposed to selective hyperskepticism] becomes a key factor in sound judgement. Decision theory is challenging, much less the practice. KF kairosfocus

JVL, have you forgotten that HCQ has been a common, even dominant antimalarial? That means that it has been used for the general population (especially in malarial zones), and for decades. That is why -- duly noting that pharmacology is "the study of poisons in small doses" -- it is significant to see that as Dr Oz commented, the Lupus Society leadership remarked on its safety and utility: main complications seem to come from long term use. As for dosages, the effectiveness we see reported comes from the dosage ranges reported; which seem fairly consistent with its long established uses. In the Raoult in vitro study on effectiveness, plausible concentrations were used, implying those that come from established use. By contrast, Thalidomide was a novelty and was not used in a context as serious as Malaria, much less this highly contagious, fast acting, deadly pandemic. And, the danger from Thalidomide IIRC, came from the use of racemic form, where the Dextro side turned out to be active rather than inactive. That seemed to be a surprise. In in vitro organic synthesis, racemic form is expected and can be challenging [read: significantly costly] to turn to homochiral form. KF PS: We have seen suggested and officially prescribed protocols including dosages noted here at UD, from China [an official recommendation], from France and from the USA. The numbers in Brazil seem to be 2 - 3 times that range. I think we are seeing here, inquiry into sausage factory details, which surface all sorts of internal debates and objections or views that would not be widely publicised in absence of a politicised debate. FYI the couple who took fish tank cleaner on their own initiative took a teaspoonful each, which is indubitably well beyond any reasonable dosage. CQ and HCQ are prescription drugs, which normally implies knowledge of medical history and linked issues such as hypertension, chronic diseases, general condition etc; routinely noted as a first step to create a patient file. kairosfocus

Tracking excess deaths during COVID-19 pandemic. https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/04/16/tracking-covid-19-excess-deaths-across-countries EDTA: We should keep in mind that thalidomide was not being given for a condition anywhere near as dangerous as covid-19. Kairosfocus: Thalidomide was a novel drug without a 65 year history of regular, routine, widespread use. That is a highly material difference to HCQ What is the appropriate dose of HCQ for patients with confirmed COVID-19? We don't know. Has is been shown to be safe to use for patients with heart disease, diabetes, obesity, pregnant women . . . There are lots of questions that really should be answered especially since the people most likely to succumb to COVID-19 have underlying medical conditions. Let me be clear: I would not stop anyone from using or proscribing HCQ or a combination of drugs. I PERSONALLY would not take it or proscribe it without proper trials having been carried out. JVL

Um...a fifth order polynomial? I don’t think you have to have one of our fancy degrees to know how likely that is to go haywire. Jim Thibodeau

And, how did we get here? Bureaucratic mismanagement, as usual. Our friend, Neil Ferguson, has published models over the years that did exactly what his latest one did: completely miss the mark by orders of magnitude.

What on earth are you talking about? Do you mean his model understimated the deaths in a lockdown? Quite possibly, but not my orders of magnitude.

Now, there’s a study by an Israeli scientist who tells us that this virus has its own pattern and that this patterns works itself out over a set period of time, lockdown or no

Fitting 5th order polynomials to reported testing data (which varies hugely because countries like the US, UK have given up on testing as a way of tracking spread) is a way to spend some time, but not really a "study". The peak he finds in Sweden appears to be about week-day effects in how tests are reported (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/) orthomyxo

In the 24 hours ending at 8 p.m. Eastern time Thursday, 4,591 people were reported to have died from Covid-19, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis of data from Johns Hopkins University. The prior record was 2,569 on Wednesday. rhampton7

our testing has flatlined at about 145,000 test per day.

So you are saying that because 78% of the tests prove negative, that they are choosing the wrong people to test. And if they only tested those who had the disease, the numbers would be much higher? Maybe the doctors should study up on what the symptoms of the disease are so that these people who have the disease don't fall through the cracks. Zelenko was pretty good at identifying who had the disease.. I believe over 60% of the people he identified as possible ended up positive. Zelenko seemed to be good at this as well as how to determine early how to cure it. Maybe US doctors should study Zelenko's methods. jerry

EG I’m also thinking sunlight might be a big factor. Vivid vividbleau

“I’m just a beer and maple syrup swilling Canadian but even I know that the Democrats tend to dominate in the most densely populated states, a condition that favours the spread of any disease. “ It’s not based on density or the number of population rather per 100k per person. I get your point though but if it’s density then it has nothing to do with political party which is my point. Vivid vividbleau

Vivid

Wow all of the Republican Governors that govern these top ten states are sure low IQ

I’m just a beer and maple syrup swilling Canadian but even I know that the Democrats tend to dominate in the most densely populated states, a condition that favours the spread of any disease. We are seeing the same trend in Canada. Ontario and Quebec are the most densely populated provinces, and have the most cases. Ed George

“One of the reasons California is doing much better than Florida, they took it seriously and locked down weeks before our low-IQ Republicans did.” From Reuters here are the top 10 states with the most cases per 100k people 1) New York, 2) New Jersey, 3) Massachusetts,4) Louisiana, 5) Michigan, 6) Connecticut 7) Rhode Island, 8) District of Columbia, 9) Maryland, 10) Colorado Wow all of the Republican Governors and one Mayor that govern these top 9 states and one district are sure low IQ As to Florida it has 109 cases 3 deaths per 100k, California 71 cases 2 deaths per 100k Vivid vividbleau

When this is finally over, epidemiologists are going to spend years sorting through all of the data to try to identify the contributing factors. Age, obesity, immune compromised, cultural habits, population density, etc. Ed George

Rhampton I just found out something horrible. For the last 10 days it looks like the new cases in the US has been linear instead of exponential, at 30,000 new cases per day. Well I just found out the reason it looks like that is for the last 10 days our testing has flatlined at about 145,000 test per day. Jim Thibodeau

Of the four largest states Texas seems to be the luckiest so far. New York by far the worst. I used 55 because it was easy to find the number. An older age number might be better. Yes, I know that all deaths are not over 55. California has 5.7 million over 55 and 864 deaths or 151 deaths per million persons over 55 - Over half. the deaths are in Los Angeles county Florida has 4.4 million over 55 and 614 deaths or 140 deaths per million persons over 55 - Almost half the deaths are in Dade and Broward counties Texas has 3.6 million over 55 and 375 deaths or 104 deaths per million persons over 55 - A little less than half are in Houston, Dallas and Ft. Worth. New York has 3.2 million over 55 and 11,586 deaths or 3620 deaths per million persons over 55 jerry

The official tally of coronavirus cases in the Veterans Affairs’ health system rose to 4,946 on Thursday, a jump of nearly 11 percent from the previous day’s totals. Sixteen VA medical centers are now reporting more than 100 coronavirus cases among their patients, and 29 facilities have reported at least 50 cases, according to data released by the department on Thursday. The overnight increase in positive tests was the largest one-day rise VA officials have seen since April 4, when the system had just over 2,500 cases. Fatalities are also rising rapidly. On April 4, the department reported 98 deaths from the fast-spreading illness, nearly all of them in the previous two weeks. In the 12 days since then, the death toll has risen to 284, officials said Thursday. rhampton7

JVL, Thalidomide was a novel drug without a 65 year history of regular, routine, widespread use. That is a highly material difference to HCQ. KF kairosfocus

Gov. Kim Reynolds on Thursday acknowledged a suspected COVID-19 outbreak at a meatpacking plant in Black Hawk County. The potential outbreak at the Waterloo plant, which has nearly 3,000 workers, extend the worries about meatpacking plants in Iowa and around the nation. Local officials said there were 150 COVID-19 cases in the county and one death, though they did not directly tie all those illnesses to the plant. But Black Hawk County Sheriff Tony Thompson did target the Waterloo facility in comments Thursday afternoon, although he did not mention it by name. "Many of these cases are attributable to just one local employer. And having visited that location and witnessed their attempts and approaches to employee protection and safety practices as it pertains to the COVID-19 virus, there was clearly more that could and should have been done," Thompson said. "Today, our entire ... countywide health care delivery and virus response system is paying the price for those lapses in protocol." rhampton7

Perhaps you’re not familiar with another drug that was used without proper trials being done

How many millions of people have used CQ or HCQ. My guess it is tens of millions. So your comparison is not even close. It already has success in fighting this disease. I suggest you read all the examples that have been presented. jerry

JVL @ 52, We should keep in mind that thalidomide was not being given for a condition anywhere near as dangerous as covid-19. EDTA

JT

One of the reasons California is doing much better than Florida, they took it seriously and locked down weeks before our low-IQ Republicans did..

Are you suggesting that they might be CovIDiots? :) Ed George

And studies from things like the Spanish flu in 1918 show that it’s the places who lock down the quickest and hardest that do the best economically, not the ones who fail to, naïvely believing that they’re bettering their economy. An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure. One of the reasons California is doing much better than Florida, they took it seriously and locked down weeks before our low-IQ Republicans did. Jim Thibodeau

@DavidP those are the people who insist they’re Pro Life, too. Jim Thibodeau

The City of Brooks is confirming multiple cases of COVID-19 at the JBS Food Canada plant in that city. “As these are now confirmed community transmitted cases, we are reminding residents that it is crucial we all continue to be socially responsible,” the release continues. rhampton7

EMERGENCY powers have been seized by the Swedish government amid fears that its relaxed lockdown led to a surge in coronavirus deaths. The government can now order the closure of shopping centres and ports without parliamentary approval after the death toll jumped by 170 to 1,203. Bars, restaurants and shops are still open along with primary schools, while there can be public gatherings of up to 50 people. Indicating a stricter lockdown could be on the way, Sweden’s foreign minister Ann Linde said yesterday: ‘If we need more dramatic measures we would like to have these powers.’ rhampton7

A hundred years from now when people look back to learn something about the ID community, I sure hope they miss this jem: "800 deaths is next to nothing" -uncommondescent.com 2020 Way to serve the ID community. David P

Truthfreedom: And according to some of them, having sex with your parents and with a corpse is not morally reprobable. Since no one did actually make such an endorsement and since this kind of comment is clearly of the 'poisoning the well' variety I hope someone considers how to handle such statements so that a civilised discussion can continue. It's not my forum so I accept that the 'owners' can decide to let it be whatever they wish. I will leave wondering why Truthfreedom is so fascinated by weird and deviant sexual practices for others to contemplate. I do find it ironic that the supposedly morally bankrupt commentators (the materialist atheists) tend to be much more polite and far less rude to their opposition than some of the Christian ID proponents. Would I be allowed to continue to participate here if I used the same kind of language as Truthfreedom, ET, BobRyan and Jerry? Is the blog a place to have a dialogue or for something else? It's your call, not mine. JVL

Jerry: Just look at the liberals here. They nearly all uniformly are against the use of HCQ with the completely immoral reason that a valid study has not been done. If that isn’t a sign of mental deficiency I am not sure what is. Perhaps you're not familiar with another drug that was used without proper trials being done. From Wikipedia:

Researchers at Chemie Grünenthal found that thalidomide was a particularly effective antiemetic that had an inhibitory effect on morning sickness. On October 1, 1957, the company launched thalidomide and began marketing it under the trade name Contergan. It was proclaimed a "wonder drug" for insomnia, coughs, colds and headaches. During this period, the use of medications during pregnancy was not strictly controlled, and drugs were not thoroughly tested for potential harm to the fetus. Thousands of pregnant women took the drug to relieve their symptoms. At the time of the drug's development, scientists did not believe any drug taken by a pregnant woman could pass across the placental barrier and harm the developing fetus, even though the effect of alcohol on fetal development had been documented by case studies on alcoholic mothers since at least 1957. There soon appeared reports of abnormalities in children being born to mothers using thalidomide. In late 1959, it was noticed that peripheral neuritis developed in patients who took the drug over a period of time, and it was only after this point that thalidomide ceased to be provided over the counter. While initially considered safe, the drug was responsible for teratogenic deformities in children born after their mothers used it during pregnancies, prior to the third trimester. In November 1961, thalidomide was taken off the market due to massive pressure from the press and public. Experts estimate that the drug thalidomide led to the death of approximately 2,000 children and serious birth defects in more than 10,000 children, about 5,000 of them in West Germany. The regulatory authorities in East Germany did not approve thalidomide. One reason for the initially unobserved side effects of the drug and the subsequent approval in West Germany was that at that time drugs did not have to be tested for teratogenic effects. They had been tested on rodents only, as was usual at the time. In the UK, the British pharmaceutical company The Distillers Company (Biochemicals) Ltd, a subsidiary of Distillers Co. Ltd (now part of Diageo plc), marketed thalidomide under the brand name Distaval as a remedy for morning sickness throughout the UK, Australia and New Zealand. Their advertisement claimed that "Distaval can be given with complete safety to pregnant women and nursing mothers without adverse effect on mother or child...Outstandingly safe Distaval has been prescribed for nearly three years in this country." Globally, more pharmaceutical companies started to produce and market the drug under license from Chemie Grünenthal. By the mid-1950s, 14 pharmaceutical companies were marketing thalidomide in 46 countries under at least 37 different trade names. In the US, representatives from Chemie Grünenthal approached Smith, Kline & French (SKF), now GlaxoSmithKline (GSK), with a request to market and distribute the drug in North America. A memorandum rediscovered in 2010 in the archives of the FDA shows that, as part of its in-licensing approach, Smith, Kline and French conducted animal tests and ran a clinical trial of the drug in the US involving 875 people, including pregnant women, in 1956–57. In 1956, researchers at SKF involved in clinical trials noted that even when used in very high doses, thalidomide could not induce sleep in mice. And when administered at doses 50 to 650 times larger than that claimed by Chemie Grünenthal to be "sleep inducing", the researchers could still not achieve the hypnotic effect in animals that it had on humans. After completion of the trial, and based on reasons kept hidden for decades, SKF declined to commercialize the drug. Later, Chemie Grünenthal, in 1958, reached an agreement with William S Merrell Company in Cincinnati, Ohio, (later Richardson-Merrell, now part of Sanofi), to market and distribute thalidomide throughout the US. The US FDA refused to approve thalidomide for marketing and distribution. However, the drug was distributed in large quantities for testing purposes, after the American distributor and manufacturer Richardson-Merrell had applied for its approval in September 1960. The official in charge of the FDA review, Frances Oldham Kelsey, did not rely on information from the company, which did not include any test results. Richardson-Merrell was called on to perform tests and report the results. The company demanded approval six times, and was refused each time. Nevertheless, a total of 17 children with thalidomide-induced malformations were born in the US. Oldham Kelsey was given a Presidential award for distinguished service from the federal government for not allowing thalidomide to be approved for sale in the US.

I don't want anyone else to die from COVID-19 but I don't want to give people a medication when it's not known for sure that it works, it's not been tested on a wide sample and we don't even know a safe and effective dose. We do know the medications in question have some dangerous side effects. I've read of other cases where insufficient tests were run and people got hurt. No one wanted to hurt them but without double blinding protocols people tend to see what they want to be true and not always what is true. Even doctors. When we want to help people we owe it to them and their families to be damn sure we really are helping. If you were a doctor and you proscribed a drug that hadn't gone through rigorous testing to be sure it was safe and efficacious and some of your patients died anyway or had severe side effects what would you say to them and their families? I thought it was okay. I thought it was worth the risk. Thank you for helping us understand how this medication works. I'd want to be very, very sure. That's why I myself would not take those medications unless they had passed sound and robust testing procedures. I'll be really honest here and say that I would not even participate in a study at this stage. I'd rather take my chances considering my age and low risk factors. JVL

Folks, kindly tone down the needless rhetorical voltage. KF kairosfocus

Plant Vogtle officials now say 42 of their employees have tested positive for COVID-19. Cases at the Georgia Power nuclear plant continue to rise in the past several days. However, Georgia Power officials also say 57 workers are still awaiting results and 154 workers have tested negative. rhampton7

Smithfield Foods will temporarily close its plants in Cudahy, Wisconsin and Martin City, Missouri because of the coronavirus pandemic. The plant near Milwaukee will be closed for two weeks while the facility in Missouri is closed indefinitely. The Missouri plant receives raw material from the company's Sioux Falls, South Dakota facility, which is also closed. Smithfield said a small number of employees at the Wisconsin and Missouri plants have tested positive for COVID-19. rhampton7

"Just look at the liberals here. They nearly all uniformly..." ...believe all the same stupid stuff and are unable to maintain any independent thought. I've attempted communication with many of them over many years. You might as well be trying to communicate with a fence post. Andrew asauber

@Jerry

Just look at the liberals here. They nearly all uniformly are against the use of HCQ with the completely immoral reason that a valid study has not been done. If that isn’t a sign of mental deficiency I am not sure what is.

Uh. And according to some of them, having sex with your parents and with a corpse is not morally reprobable. Neither is killing your own 'cubs' (abortion) because that is a way to 'increase your reproductive fitness'. Yes, by killing your own, you are having more 'reproductive success'. Coyne, Dawkins and other atheist evos say they are 'neuronal illusions'. Something seriously wrong is going on inside those heads. Truthfreedom

If the numbers are correct it is probably because those with liberal leanings may be more likely to acknowledge and address their mental illnesses than those with conservative leanings.

You got to be kidding! It was a third of them. I assume the numbers are correct. It is by a reputable research organization. Just look at the liberals here. They nearly all uniformly are against the use of HCQ with the completely immoral reason that a valid study has not been done. If that isn't a sign of mental deficiency I am not sure what is. jerry

#44 BS Upright BiPed

Jerry

The implication is that a high percentage of those with mental illness end up deciding to be very liberal, not that the illness chooses a political leaning.

I know that the moderators here don't like us using the BS epithet, but I think it applies here. If the numbers are correct it is probably because those with liberal leanings may be more likely to acknowledge and address their mental illnesses than those with conservative leanings. Ed George

Rich white liberals might have better access to mental health care, and thus could more frequently be diagnosed than some other groups.

3 to 1. Besides I thought the rich were mostly conservative. Actually I think it is about equal. jerry

Jerry, hard data from Pew seems hard to find, specifically to link. I do see claims to adjust for income etc. But, it seems that there is already an ideological issue on the table reflected in a situation where by 2016 to 2020, Socialist candidates and populists rose to prominence in US politics, with issues being put on the table that reflect trends that should trigger serious concerns for the future of our civilisation. The response to evidence on potential treatments for this pandemic is a case in point, especially when as simple fact the FDA has given two levels of approval. KF kairosfocus

Jerry, It's also possible there are confounding factors. Rich white liberals might have better access to mental health care, and thus could more frequently be diagnosed than some other groups. daveS

While mental illness is a major modern plague, I am not sure it picks political sides

This was sarcasm backed up by data. Did anyone read the link? It supports my comment. It references a Pew Research study. The study shows that those who are politically liberal have a much higher incidence of mental illness. Or at least they admit to it. For ultra liberal, the number that have a mental condition is about a third while for ultra conservative it is about 12% The implication is that a high percentage of those with mental illness end up deciding to be very liberal, not that the illness chooses a political leaning. jerry

KF, Eh? Anyway I think your advice to avoid online diagnoses of mental illness is on point. Mental illness is common, as is physical illness, but I don't think it's a major factor here. daveS

DS, we have seen arguments that any particular string is as likely as any other so don't you dare partition configuration spaces. KF PS: Ignorant, stupid, insane or wicked. kairosfocus

KF,

Jerry, While mental illness is a major modern plague, I am not sure it picks political sides.

Yes, and this notion that "people on the 'other' 'side' are just mentally ill" is raised by people of all political stripes, unfortunately (including myself at times, I regret). But I don't think mental illness plays a major role here, for example. Is there anyone here so severely mentally incapacitated that they can't understand a simple logical argument? Or who would not conclude that if a coin comes up heads 90 out of 100 flips (no shenanigans allowed) is likely not fair? I doubt it. daveS

TF, yes, we have serious ideologically induced worldview and cultural agenda challenges. KF PS: Plato saw much the same in aftermath of the Peloponnesian war and as seems likely, the massively disruptive impact of the Athenian plague:

Ath [in The Laws, Bk X 2,360 ya]. . . .[The avant garde philosophers and poets, c. 360 BC] say that fire and water, and earth and air [i.e the classical "material" elements of the cosmos], all exist by nature and chance, and none of them by art . . . [such that] all that is in the heaven, as well as animals and all plants, and all the seasons come from these elements, not by the action of mind, as they say, or of any God, or from art, but as I was saying, by nature and chance only [ --> that is, evolutionary materialism is ancient and would trace all things to blind chance and mechanical necessity] . . . . [Thus, they hold] that the principles of justice have no existence at all in nature, but that mankind are always disputing about them and altering them; and that the alterations which are made by art and by law have no basis in nature, but are of authority for the moment and at the time at which they are made.-

[ --> Relativism, too, is not new; complete with its radical amorality rooted in a worldview that has no foundational IS that can ground OUGHT, leading to an effectively arbitrary foundation only for morality, ethics and law: accident of personal preference, the ebbs and flows of power politics, accidents of history and and the shifting sands of manipulated community opinion driven by "winds and waves of doctrine and the cunning craftiness of men in their deceitful scheming . . . " cf a video on Plato's parable of the cave; from the perspective of pondering who set up the manipulative shadow-shows, why.]

These, my friends, are the sayings of wise men, poets and prose writers, which find a way into the minds of youth. They are told by them that the highest right is might,

[ --> Evolutionary materialism -- having no IS that can properly ground OUGHT -- leads to the promotion of amorality on which the only basis for "OUGHT" is seen to be might (and manipulation: might in "spin") . . . ]

and in this way the young fall into impieties, under the idea that the Gods are not such as the law bids them imagine; and hence arise factions [ --> Evolutionary materialism-motivated amorality "naturally" leads to continual contentions and power struggles influenced by that amorality at the hands of ruthless power hungry nihilistic agendas], these philosophers inviting them to lead a true life according to nature, that is,to live in real dominion over others [ --> such amoral and/or nihilistic factions, if they gain power, "naturally" tend towards ruthless abuse and arbitrariness . . . they have not learned the habits nor accepted the principles of mutual respect, justice, fairness and keeping the civil peace of justice, so they will want to deceive, manipulate and crush -- as the consistent history of radical revolutions over the past 250 years so plainly shows again and again], and not in legal subjection to them [--> nihilistic will to power not the spirit of justice and lawfulness].

kairosfocus

@30 Jerry

The cause for the polarization may be mental illness.

If you read the atheist-evolutionary literature, you'll notice some common words/ motifs: - "hallucination" - "tricked by evolution" - "imagined" -"illusory" -"not real" - "inexistent self" -"meat-robots" Ah, and: "Killing unborn babies is a sign of progress". Something is really wrong. Truthfreedom

Jerry, While mental illness is a major modern plague, I am not sure it picks political sides. I suggest that for decades the US has been spiralling down into ever deeper polarisation leading to the current sad state. This has been compounded by the breakdown of sound education, generally and in ethics and logic. Selective hyperskepticism is an intellectual vice that has now largely supplanted the charioteer of the virtues, prudence. Indeed, I have come to realise that language that praises "skepticism" and "severe testing" or Big-S Science . . . in fact, evolutionary materialistic scientism . . . is diagnostic. We need to re-balance our thinking on warrant and responsibility. A linguistic indicator would be re-emergence of language such as "moral certainty." That is a degree of warrant for some X that on the balance of merits is such that to act as though X were false would be irresponsible. That point shifts with consequences of error. KF kairosfocus

JT, as I just had to explain locally, the breakout growth of this disease is quasi-exponential -- H'mm just now local UKG Governor warned on using per capita figures as they can mislead; rather timely. Okay, back to Math and dynamics. Exponential growth or decay depends directly on the mass in hand: dN(t)/dt = +/- k * N(t), so the change rate depends on an absolute number N, not a ratio such as N/N0. Here as I pointed out weeks back (when there was a debate on bell curves), that we have a mass of the infected in close contact with others to whom they transmit the disease. That is, once there is a lodgement, breakout is likely -- highly contagious -- and there is a contact-driven propagation driven by current mass N(t). That continues until population of the vulnerable falls enough to saturate or else reduction in contact triggers an artificial reduction in transmission per infected person. California is a bigger state with a bigger population and several quite large conurbations, Florida seems to have a particularly high population of the elderly. Other things equal, I would expect a larger absolute scale outbreak in CA than FL, but likely the incidence of serious and fatal ones might be higher in FL. NYC of course is a major transport hub and with parts of NJ is the biggest conurbation in the USA, so it is expected that there would see the biggest outbreak for the US; especially given the higher density there. Party politics seems to me to be of little help, save to feed the ongoing low grade civil war in the USA. KF kairosfocus

That’s because they’re past the peak (or rather, they think they’re past the peak), so they have spares. Gov. Cuomo committed to doing this a week or two ago, because other states are not at the peak yet, so the excess he procured can be used where they are needed

Thank you for validating everything I said. jerry

NYC held its Chinese celebration despite all warnings of the virus. CNN poo-poo'ed the virus in Early March- even Dr. Gupta said the flu is of more concern. Even Dr. Fauci said on Feb 29 that people should live their normal lives. In March he said it was OK for young, healthy people to go on cruises. Clearly Jim T is an insipid troll ET

Fatal disaffection threatens to break out.

The cause for the polarization may be mental illness. It seems that white liberals are very prone to mental illness, much more than any other demographic and political group. This might explain all the irrational comments at UD and other places. https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2020/04/does-liberalism-cause-mental-illness.php jerry

Even NYC is starting to send ventilators to other places.

That's because they're past the peak (or rather, they think they're past the peak), so they have spares. Gov. Cuomo committed to doing this a week or two ago, because other states are not at the peak yet, so the excess he procured can be used where they are needed. Bob O'H

BO'H, the trend lines on this wave show peaking, as has been tracked here at UD through OWID. The issue now is onward waves, and China already has had two weaker ones. KF kairosfocus

the strain on health services means that there may be more deaths because people with conditions unrelated to corona are not getting the treatment they need.

There are several hospitals in the US that are laying off people because the hospitals are far under usually case loads and losing money so they cannot pay hospital staff. Even NYC is starting to send ventilators to other places. There is a local case of a woman with torn ACL who cannot get surgery but the hospital in town has extra capacity. jerry

BobRyan @ 24 - scroll down on that page, and look at the graph of deaths (or, better still, their daily deaths). It's not clear we're even at the peak of the epidemic, so the total deaths will be much more. Another issue is that the deaths might be an under-count, either because statistics are coming in late (my guess is that this is why 76 extra deaths were recorded, as PaV notes in comment 2), or because corona virus is not being registered as the cause of death (e.g. this seems to be the case in New York). Also, the strain on health services means that there may be more deaths because people with conditions unrelated to corona are not getting the treatment they need. We'll only be able to get a good handle on the number of deaths later, when these issues have been examined in more detail. Bob O'H

California, with its Democratic governor, took this much more seriously than FoxNews Florida did, and as a result took serious preventative measures weeks sooner than Florida did. Several weeks ago Republicans even mocked California for how seriously they were taking it. Now California has 692 cases per million, and Florida has 1,093 cases per million. If your response to those numbers is ‘we here in California should be more like Florida’, then I think you need remedial math classes so you can figure out which number is bigger than the other. Jim Thibodeau

How is COVID-19 showing itself to be more lethal than influenza? Influenza kills 500,000 people every year. According to the most recent numbers, 135,569 deaths being attributed to COVID-19. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ BobRyan

Just saw: Singapore kairosfocus

BO'H: The US is reflecting its current low grade civil war, the extreme reaction to HCQ in the face of two tiers of FDA approval speaks. Fatal disaffection threatens to break out. KF kairosfocus

DS, yes, my point is that as time trails out, S Korea, Singapoer, Bahrain et al seem to be converging on a wobbly trend around the double in ten days ray. In any other context, doubling in 10 days would be red flagged. It seems they are flattening the fresh cases hump [a proxy for fresh infections] so slowing the exponential growth, not killing it. I want that exponential growth killed dead, dead, dead. We are in trouble, global trouble. That is why I think we need to look seriously at HCQ- in- a- cocktail and other treatments, whatever may work for prophylaxis and try to accelerate vaccines, testing etc. The latter are going to take a year plus, on expected time lines. I am haunted by Spanish Flu and the Black Death as templates for what pandemics can do in months. KF PS: Patient zero here . . . now virus free per tests [and yes we know limitations] . . . just did a radio interview. The lack of capable, widely accepted antivirals was patent. She resorted to local folk remedies and working in her garden. I suspect, implied doses of vits C, D, Zn and other immune boosters, plus likely a robust constitution. kairosfocus

He asks: was this exponential growth? His answer: no.

That's epidemiology 101: the start is exponential, but then it tails off.

Why isn’t life back to normal right now? Why? A Democratic governor.

But it's not back to normal in states with Republican governors either, e.g. Florida. And the quickest state to act after their first case was recorded was West Virginia, that well-known hotbed of socialism. Most governor have enacted some form of "stay at home" order, as have most countries in Europe, regardless of political affiliation. One of the few countries that hasn't is Sweden, which is notorious for its right-wing free market politics.

We’re witnessing the politicization of science before our eyes by people who can’t function rationally.

Bob O'H

VB, CA has a similar population to Canada, and both have about 1000 deaths. And they are both just approaching the first peak. It is reasonable to assume that the number of deaths after the peak will be at least as great as the number before. Probably much more given that the drop appears to be more gradual than the rise. Ed George

Dave “Did you see Singapore is also having difficulty? It’s concerning that such a small, highly developed country with a compliant population can’t quickly stamp it out.” Were never going to be able to stamp it out all we can do is suppress the rapid rate of transmission , buy time if you will. We are going to have a second and third wave when we start to open up the economy. You can take it to the bank the amount of deaths that would result in an economic collapse would far far outweigh deaths by Covod19. Poverty is the greatest killer of all. Im looking at CA statistics and they have reported only about 900 deaths is that an accurate figure? The state has a population of 40 million, are they bracing for a exponential increase in deaths? Vivid vividbleau

A COVID-19 outbreak on French aircraft carrier FS Charles de Gaulle (R91) and its carrier strike group has ballooned from 50 positive cases last week to at least 668 today, with 31 service members hospitalized and one in intensive care. At least two American sailors are among the sick on Charles de Gaulle, though neither navy has elaborated on the severity of their conditions. Four American sailors are assigned to Charles de Gaulle as part of the Navy’s Personnel Exchange Program, which fully integrates the sailors into partner nations’ crews and operations, according to a U.S. Navy news release today. Two of those four tested positive for the disease. rhampton7

Obesity is considered more dangerous factor than cancer, for patients with coronavirus patients. This is the conclusion reached by researchers from the Medical school named Grossman at new York University. The study is published on the website MedRxiv. The study involved more than 8 thousand patients. Scientists have found that almost half of the patients (46%), hospitalized with coronavirus infection were older than 65 years. They also found that the most frequently hospitalized people with coronavirus and severe obesity. According to the study, even those who are younger than 60 years are twice as likely to need hospitalization if they have obesity. The researchers attribute this to the fact that patients with obesity are more prone to infections. Their immune system tries to fight off excess fat in the body, so does not struggle fully with the virus. It is also established that only five percent are hospitalized with coronavirus were smokers. This is the first study in which no mention of the increased risk of coronavirus for Smoking people. Scientists suggest that the problem of obesity in the United States can contribute to the spread COVID-19. rhampton7

KF, Did you see Singapore is also having difficulty? It's concerning that such a small, highly developed country with a compliant population can't quickly stamp it out. daveS

My friend in San Francisco said you don’t usually get a good CFR until about a year after the pandemic ends. We know there are deaths that weren’t tested, but we also know there are asymptomatic carriers or presymptomatic who haven’t been tested either. Jim Thibodeau

BA, I just hope, not. KF kairosfocus

JT, I think a reserve pool is forming leading to a flu season re-emergence of major waves as weather cools and sunlight fades . . . that being an excellent disinfectant. I am troubled by failure of S Korea to go to zero. If so, this will be with us for a while like Spanish Flu. KF kairosfocus

KF, I wonder if we are going to need to brush up on this sequence: primary secondary tertiary quaternary quinary senary septenary octonary nonary denary Barry Arrington

From what I've read, here and other places, it appears that the mortality rate of Covid 19 is significantly higher than seasonal flu, but not as bad as some early reports. Have some sympathy for our political leaders. They are having to make decisions with poor data and quite reasonably they may be basing them on worst case rather than best case scenarios. aarceng

PAV, on the plots I am seeing, China has had a secondary wave and before it died off as much as the primary, a tertiary one, now itself dying back. Y'know, I am thinking, similar to a time domain impulse response, sufficient that one might want to try extracting a transfer function. KF kairosfocus

Like I said, he did not say it “will be a seasonal flu”. He wouldn’t have said that anyway, it’s not a flu. Jim Thibodeau

Polistra, on a technicality, sinusoids are exponential functions with i involved. But yes, such do not grow in the way e^x will. However the growth is only quasi-exponential, being shadowed by a strong saturation effect that grows as limiting resource is depleted. KF kairosfocus

It now looks like the numbers for the corona virus are being manipulated.

🙄 daveS

Jim Thibodeau: How about googling: This, for example. Here's a quote from the link: Dr. Anthony Fauci says there's a very good chance the new coronavirus "will assume a seasonal nature" because it is unlikely to be under control globally. There are other corona viruses that have a 'seasonal' character to them. PaV

“Dr. Fauci keeps saying that he thinks this virus will be a seasonal flu.” He didn’t say that. Jim Thibodeau

All modern fakery is based on the assumption of exponential growth, starting with Malthus. Mama Nature don't play Exp. Mama Nature play Sin or Tanh. Rise quickly until negative feedback meets the rise, then steady or down depending on the strength of the negative feedback. True in all cellular actions, muscles, nerves, epidemics, populations, all living processes. I'm not sure why exp is so dominant today. I think it comes from the NYC disconnect from analog thinking and reality. When you live inside computers, with money based solely on computers, you CAN have exponentials rise to infinity. But even in computerized money like Wall Street, exp finally bumps into reality. It bumps a lot more painfully when you don't allow normal negative feedback (eg the "invisible hand" of interest rates) to hold it down first. polistra

It now looks like the numbers for the corona virus are being manipulated. California, out of nowhere, shows 76 deaths for today. Out of nowhere. New York has shown roughly the same amount of deaths for over a week, even as the news comes out that the number in their ICUs and wards is going down, as well as the number of reported cases. The pattern that we see, almost without exception, is that the number of deaths follows the number of reported cases by about 4 to 6 days, with it being closer to 4 days. The number of deaths the last two days has broken that pattern. How? Why? Are politics supremely in play right now? PaV

PAV For sure this is turning out to be a schiff show LOL Vivid vividbleau