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Perfect architectures which scream design

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(Adapted from a discussion at Evolution and Design and from material in Trevors and Abel’s peer-reviewed paper, Chance and necessity do not explain the origin of life, featured in Cell Biology International, 2004.)

The Explanatory Filter in ID literature outlines a textbook method for detecting design. If one finds a physical artifact, the artifact is inferred to be designed if the features in question are not explainable by naturalistic explanations, namely:

1. natural law, or
2. chance

(I will explain later why I define “naturalistic explanations” this way.)

However, two objections often arise:

A. How can we be sure we won’t make some discovery in the future that will invalidate the design inference?

B. How can we be sure we’ve eliminated all possible naturalistic causes, particularly since we have so few details of what happened so long ago when no one was around?

Answer: We can be sure if we are dealing with the right kind of design, a perfect architecture to communicate design! The right kind of design will negate objections raised by questions A and B.

I must admit at first, A and B seemed impossible for finite humans like us to answer. I mean, after all, would we not have to be All-Knowing to answer such questions? However, there is mathematical tool known as Proof by Contradiction which allows finite humans to give accurate descriptions about issues that deal with an infinitely large number of objects.

It is rumored that the first recorded application of Proof by Contradiction was so heretical to the Greeks that they executed the mathematician who first applied it successfully (see The Square Root of 2). Let us then use this heretical tool to allow us to answer A and B without knowing everything.

What then is an example of a perfect architecture which resists natural law and chance explanations? Answer: self-replicating computer systems (Turing machines) and/or the first living organism. A peer-reviewed article on this very topic by Trevors and Abel in the journal, Cell International, is available here: Chance and necessity do not explain the origin of life.

Rather than quote the entire article, let me give their explanation for why any natural law we are aware of, or any natural law we might possibly discover in the future, would not explain living organisms (the same is true of self-replicating computer systems, which living cells happen to be also):

Natural mechanisms are all highly self-ordering. Reams of data can be reduced to very simple compression algorithms called the laws of physics and chemistry. No natural mechanism of nature reducible to law can explain the high information content of genomes. This is a mathematical truism, not a matter subject to overturning by future empirical data. The cause-and-effect necessity described by natural law manifests a probability approaching 1.0. Shannon uncertainty is a probability function (−log2 p). When the probability of natural law events approaches 1.0, the Shannon uncertainty content becomes miniscule (−log2 p = −log2 1.0 = 0 uncertainty). There is simply not enough Shannon uncertainty in cause-and-effect determinism and its reductionistic laws to retain instructions for life. Prescriptive information (instruction) can only be explained by algorithmic programming. Such DNA programming requires extraordinary bit measurements often extending into megabytes and even gigabytes. That kind of uncertainty reflects freedom from law-like constraints.

The above is an example of using Proof by Contradiction. It is in no way an “argument from ignorance” (too use a tired old phrase by the anti-IDsts).

The rest of the paper gives an explanation why chance cannot be factor as it relates to pre-biotic chemistry and information science.

It is not reasonable to expect hundreds to thousands of random sequence polymers to all cooperatively self-organize into an amazingly efficient holistic metabolic network. The spontaneous generation of long sequences of DNA out of sequence space (Ω) does have the potential to include the same sequences as genetic information. But there is no reason to suspect that any instructive biopolymer would isolate itself out of Ω and present itself at the right place and time.

Even if all the right primary structures (digital messages) mysteriously emerged at the same time from Ω, “a cell is not a bag of enzymes”. And, as we have pointed out several times, there would be no operating system to read these messages.

Without selection of functional base sequencing at the covalent level, no biopolymer would be expected to meet the needs of an organizing metabolic network. There is no prescriptive information in random sequence nucleic acid. Even if there were, unless a system for interpreting and translating those messages existed, the digital sequence would be unintelligible at the receiver and destination. The letters of any alphabet used in words have no prescriptive function unless the destination reading those words first knows the language convention.

The question then arises, how about some combination of chance and necessity, a mechanism like natural selection. Well in addition to the fact one may not have a viable reproducing organism to even begin to have natural selection do it’s work, the Displacement Theorem shows why such a mechanism is even more remote than chance as an explanation. Thus, combinations of natural law and chance are also rejected as explanations.

We thus have, in the first life, something, that by definition resists naturalistic origins. It is not a matter of ignorance that this conclusion is arrived at, it is a matter of a mathematical Proof by Contradiction. If one assumes naturalistic origins for life, one eventually runs into a logical impossibility, which demonstrates the assumption of naturalistic origins was incorrect to begin with.

Lest I be accused of equivocation of the word “naturalistic”, let me point out if that if by naturalistic one means no involvement by the supernatural, that results in a either a meaningless definition (beautifully described by Mark Perakh on the supernatural and science) or a metaphysical definition (i.e., naturalistic = “anything except ID or God”). In either case, such a definition of “naturalistic” is scientifically meaningless.

In contrast, the definition for naturalistic that I gave above is consistent with the concept of naturalistic in ID literature, and further, such a definition is scientifically meaningful versus a metaphysical definition (naturalistic = “anything except ID or God”).

There is perhaps the hypothetical chance we have a non-natural, but also non-ID explanation for the first living organism. Such an explanation, given that it does not proceed from a natural law or chance would not be in principle testable, thus it too would fall outside materialist definitions of science. But this is an intolerable situation for materialist “science” because in that case, the explanation for life would still fall outside of their self-contradictory definition of science, and thus life, at least in their conception, would of necessity have an unscientific cause!

One might argue the possibility of a non-natural, non-ID cause negates the ID inference as well. But in such case I appeal to other factors:

1. We have examples of agents, namely humans, which can make comparable artifacts, thus the inference is at least consistent with an intelligence that is willing to behave in a human-like manner

2. If all else fails, we can point out the laws of physics strongly suggest the existence of an Ultimate Intelligence.

Thus really, a non-ID cause becomes less and less plausible.

I hope this essay has helped illustrate why life is a perfect architecture to communicate design!

Salvador

Comments
P.S. Snide comments about my example are grounds for a kick in the shin. :) JanieBellejaniebelle
July 5, 2006
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Ok, maybe I should point out exactly where I'm getting stuck, so we're all on the same page.

I like analogies and hypotheticals, silly simple ones. They work for me.

So, here goes JanieBelle, as she tiptoes through the darkest jungle.

Suddenly, she comes to a giant animal called a giraffelantopotomus.

"Well," says she. "Hello there Mrs. Giraffelantopotomus! I didn't think I'd ever see you in my life. I see that's a very nice big toe you have there. It's very fancy. It seems rather complex, as well. How ever did you come by such a toe?"

Now, perhaps Mrs. Giraffelantopotomus evolved such a toe.

Perhaps it was the product of design.

How do we know?

If I understand what Sal is saying in this article (possibly not, big surprise), there is a way by which we can determine that there is no possible way that this big toe evolved. Even if we don't know every possible way that nature works, we can still determine that there is no possible way for this fancy, complex, giraffelantopotomus big toe to evolve.

Is that it? If it is, then where I'm stuck is in understanding how we go about that.

If not, well I guess we'd better take another crack at itsy bitsy step 1.

Thank you again,

JanieBelle

We can never prove there is no other possible way. We can't rule out things we don't know about and we can't know everything. Fortunately for us science doesn't work by proving things. Science is about the best explanation. Explanations are always tentative and subject to revision or rejection upon newly discovered contrary data. Some explanations are more tentative than others is all. If you read the sidebar "ID Defined" note where in the first paragraph it says "best explained". So ID's task is twofold. First show where the current "best explanation" is flawed and second show why ID a better explanation. But the heck of it is, even if ID isn't a better explanation, the current explanation isn't strong enough that it deserves to be taught as unquestionable fact in the absence of criticism or alternative explanations. That's why the rallying cry is "teach the controversy". We propose that certain aspects of neoDarwinian evolution are controversial and people should be made aware of what the controversy is all about. The most controversial bit is the supposed ability of random mutation and natural selection to create novel cell types (particularly the first cell), tissue types, organs, and (to a lesser extent) body plans. None of these have ever been observed in nature or recreated in a lab. -ds janiebelle
July 5, 2006
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...design proponents have suggested life is designed...
Can you be more clear about this? What precisely do you mean? The first life was designed? All life is designed? All aspects of life are designed? Also, why are you starting our where you want to get to? I.e, the conclusion that llife is designed? Aren't you worried about circular reasoning or affirming the consequent fallacies? ID is supposed to be an "inference." One does not make inferences by deductive reasoning. ID will never get anywhere if it starts out where it wants to end up. Here's how I would state it: Is there a reason to believe that [X] exhibits characteristics which would lead us to infer that if the causal history of X were known it could be traced to intelligent agency? There is reason to believe that X exhibits the following characterstics ... In all other cases exhibiting these characteristics and where the causal history is known it can be traced to intelligent agency. We can reasonably infer that if the causal history of X were known, it would have in it's history intelligent agency. Can anyone improve on this, or should it be trashed, hehe? In any event, the point is, we need to identify the characteristics and then say why they lead to a design inference. Then we can test the hypothesis by finding analogues and seeing if they trace to intelligent agency. That would be "doing science" I suppose. Hypothesis, test, revise ...Mung
July 5, 2006
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If I may give the readers some perspective, Kepler once believed there were people on the moon. One of his reasons for doing so was the nicely circular craters on the moon suggested design to him....thus he made a design inference regarding moon craters. It turned out, that as we learned more about our universe, that Kepler's original design inference was overturned and that a simple naturalistic explanation could account for the shape of moon craters (namely meteorite impacts). Therefore, of major concern to IDers is the possibility our design inference could be overturned by some later discovery, and IDers would be haunted with the possiblity that their inference might only be grounded in ignorance rather than knowledge. Trevors and Abel's paper went a long way to addressing that problem. Salvadorscordova
July 5, 2006
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oh, I have to go out for a while, but I'll be back in a little bit. JanieBellejaniebelle
July 5, 2006
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Thank you so much, Sal. I am really thankful that you would take the time to "hold my hand" (that's what my old cheerleading coach used to say when she had to walk one of us through something step-by-step) on this. Ok, itsy bitsy step one. This is what you're going to demonstrate. Got it. (Is "architected" a real word? :) ) JanieBellejaniebelle
July 5, 2006
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Hi everyone! Listen, I know I was one of the first people to spout off about more science here, but um, would it be too much if we could do it in english?
Hi JanieBelle, I appreciate the feedback.
Could someone summarize this whole thing in little itsy bitsy steps for me?
Okay, here is itsy bitsy step one :-) The main issue is this, design proponents have suggested life is designed, and further, some (like myself) assert it is unlikely ANY future scientific discovery will find an answer in terms of a purely naturalistic/materialistic origin of life. But how can we be so certain, how can we make such sweeping generalities since we humans are not All-Knowing? The essay was an attempt to demonstrate that it is possible to make that assertion without being All-Knowing, and that is made possible because of the way life is architected! Were life architected in another way, we would probably not be able to make that bold assertion. Let me know if that helps, and then we can go to the next itsy bitsy step. Salscordova
July 5, 2006
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ooops. Sorry about that. Forgot the magic word --- Please? :) JanieBellejaniebelle
July 5, 2006
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Hi everyone! Listen, I know I was one of the first people to spout off about more science here, but um, would it be too much if we could do it in english? I know you guys are all miles ahead of me, but my science teachers were never as interesting as my english teachers. (esp. Ms. O'Bannon who also had really great hair!) In fact, let's be nice and just say my science teachers were reeeeaaaalllllyyyy boring. Copying notes from the board written by a million year old bald guy just didn't do it for me. I got A's, but I don't really know how. Could someone summarize this whole thing in little itsy bitsy steps for me? Thanks, JanieBellejaniebelle
July 5, 2006
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Bob OH,

Thank you for your comment.

But it is misplaced to say there was a hole in the proof because Trevors and Abel were looking at natural law in isolation in the paragraph I quoted. The view of natural law was prevalant in the 1960 with the idea of Kenyon's Biochemical Predestination. Kenyon abondoned it, became and IDer, and it was only evident later Biochemical Predestination was dead-on-arival (DOA) for the reasons Trevors highlighted....

Thus natural law in isolation is removed as a cause.

Secondly chance in isolation was removed as a cause.

What the paper did not cover was the probability some combination of chance and natural law could have been the cause.

Dembski's displacement theorem which I linked to above addresses that issue in a clever way. Rather than posing the probability directly, it simply demonstrates that combinations of natural law and chance are on average no more likely than chance explanations alone, and in fact, in general get exponentially more difficult as explanations of law and chance are displaced to higher level explanations of law and chance.

The displacement theorem captures formally our intuition of designed artifacts: "the manufacturing process is usually more complex than the artifact itself." A computer factory and all the supportive factories are more complex than the computer itself, etc.

Emergence is the last naturalistic hope, imho. There have been gallant attempts at this by professors at my school (Morowitz and Hazen).

However, I think this too will fail for the very reason that if an emergent phenomena requires any amount of complexity and specificity, it begins to be exactly the thing a naturalistic origins scenario tries to avoid, namely, alleviating the need for complexity and specificity in the first place!

We will see.

Salvador

scordova
July 5, 2006
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Uncertainty is not possible through a deterministic law like processes by definition.
This is only true if the inputs are known: if they're not, then you have uncertainty in the output, and hence te probability can be much less than 1. I guess my main complaint is the assertion that OOL was deterministic: I have no idea why this has to be so. We know about emergent behaviour (i.e. patterns being fromed from stochasticity), so conceptually there is no reason why determinism is needed. Rather, both sides have to try and demonstrate that OOL is possible/is not possible through emergent behaviour. BobBob OH
July 4, 2006
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Salvador, upon reviewing some of the other posts today, I find that DaveScott made much the same point that I did in an earlier thread. Since we developed our thoughts independently, call it “convergent Popperism.” ;-)BarryA
July 4, 2006
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Trevors and Abel are backed up by 150 years of empirical data after Pasteur disproved spontaneous generation. Abiogensis goes against everything we know empirically and theoretically. My favorite illustration:
For example, modern Darwinists predict that a living cell can arise spontaneously from non-living chemicals. This prediction has never been even remotely supported by experiments, no matter how sophisticated. If I put a living cell into an ideal buffer solution in a clean test tube and poke a hole in it, its contents will leak out, and I will have in hand ALL the complex molecules and structures necessary to make a living cell; but every biologist knows I won't be able to do it. Even with all of modern technology at my disposal, I can't put humpty-dumpty back together again. Why any rational person thinks such complex molecules could originate spontaneously and then assemble themselves into a living cell is beyond me. Johnathan Wells
scordova
July 4, 2006
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Bob OH:

Where do they prove this? It’s stated in the paper, but with no citation to other work, or any demonstration that it is the case.

This is a good question, but the answer is basic information science, (something which seems lost upon most origin-of-life (OOL) researchers).

Here are some fundamentals:

Information is made possible through uncertainty, the definition of information being "that which reduces uncertainty".

Uncertainty is not possible through a deterministic law like processes by definition.

It is that simple.

Again, an assertion, but with nothing to back it up. Where is the theorem that shows how much “Shannon uncertainty” is necessary?

Bob

There is no information without the capacity for uncertainty. It is a fundamental principle. I think your criticism is misplaced. For the reader's benefit see Principia Cybernetica Web, Definition of Information.

that which reduces uncertainty. (Claude Shannon);

I hope then it is somewhat apparent why IDer's have such disdain for certain industries, particularly those who assert naturalistic evolutionary scenarios occurred. Such scenarios go against fundamental principles that are readily apparent in the information sciences and engineering.

ID engineers protest what goes on in these industries, but then we get told, "you guys aren't biologists."

What is happening here is reminiscent of what happened when we realized the universe may have a beginning. This realization was a basic consequence of a basic law, namely the 2nd law of thermodynamics. This law implied the universe had a beginning, since stars could not be burning forever. But this simple thesis was resisted because of it's implications, not because it was not readily apparent!

Same with what this paper is offering. OOL is an emperor with no clothes. The fact this paper passed peer-review (and Albert Voie's paper shortly thereafter) is indicative some have had enough.

I think your comment highlights the fact information engineers and biologists haven't had a lot of communication with each other.

Salvador

scordova
July 4, 2006
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Thanks Salvador for an excellent perspective. Here is the citation and link you were trying to make at creationism.org.pl : J.T. Trevors & D.L.Abel, Chance and necessity do not explain the origin of life, Cell Biology International 28(2004)729-739. Trevors & Abel (2004) Chance and necessity do not explain the origin of lifeDLH
July 4, 2006
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mung asked:

I have a question about the design inference.

Does it really rule out chance and necessity, or does it only rule out chance and necessity to the exclusion of intelligence?

That is a good question.

Answer: it rules out the possiblity chance and natural law as being the ONLY explanations.

A good illustration is let us look at 2 boxes with 8 dice each and (dice we already know are designed, and same with the box). Each die is colored. Here is the pattern in box 1:

Box 1:
3 orange
2 blue
4 red
6 green

1 white
3 black
5 yellow
1 pink

Box 2:
3 orange
2 blue
4 red
6 green

1 white
3 black
5 yellow
1 pink

Does the pattern in the boxes suggest intelligence? Without going into detail, the answer is yes. Such a pattern may have arisen by the designer paritally using chance. That is, Box 1's pattern may have been arrived at with no pre-meditation, but through a shaking action designed to induce a chance causation in Box 1's pattern. He simply could then use his intelligence to cause Box 2 to match the pattern of Box 1, and thus design is evidenced with respect to the numbers on the face of the dice.

Chance and natural law are not reasonably inferred to be the ONLY agencies involved in the pattern observed, even though chance, and obviously some natural law, was involved in the fabrication of the pattern in evidence.

Why does ID rule out “natural” causes? Sal, I think you are conflating natural law and natural causes, and reasoning that if you have ruled out law (necessity) and cahnce that you have ruled out natural causes. I don’t think it follows. Have I misunderstood you?

Well, my choice of words may lead to the possibility of unclarity. :=)

First of all, it is, from a scientific standpoint not universally agreed what the meaning of natural cause is. I tried to use natural cause to mean natural law, chance, or some combination thereof. I tried to acknowledge that the definition I used in this essay may not be the same as other people's definitions of natural cause

If one means

"natural cause" = "anything but God or supernatural"

then one is faced with the problem Mark Perakh pointed out. It ends up being a meaningless definition, and really, in my mind simply a metaphysical statement. Such a conception may well have roots in theology. I'm not saying it's bad, but like the word "evolution" one has to be careful of the usage.

I think your question is good, and I may try to revise my presentation in the future in light of your comments. However, I felt if I focused too much on the rigor of definitions, rigor in my essay would turn to rigor mortis.

That said, at least in terms of the Explanatory Filter, Life is an ideal candidate to pass through it's nodes for natural law and chance.

Whether one thinks this is a good description of eliminating naturalistic causes according to ones definition of nataturalistic is a good question, but at least with respect to the Explanatory Filter the nodes are passed according to the formalism's Dembski laid out.

When I looked at the bacterial flagellum, though I would personally view it as designed, it was hard to actually construct a formal argument which would pass the formalisms of Explanatory Filter as well as Trevors and Abel were able to do for the first life.

Salvador

scordova
July 4, 2006
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I have a question about the design inference. Does it really rule out chance and necessity, or does it only rule out chance and necessity to the exclusion of intelligence? Why does ID rule out "natural" causes? Sal, I think you are conflating natural law and natural causes, and reasoning that if you have ruled out law (necessity) and cahnce that you have ruled out natural causes. I don't think it follows. Have I misunderstood you?Mung
July 4, 2006
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BarryA wrote: I am saying only that we raise the bar too high – far higher than any reasonable epistemology requires – when we allow our opponents to goad us into attempting to establish that any scientific conclusion is “sure.”
Agreed, and well said. Salvadorscordova
July 4, 2006
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"I was not asserting the certainty of ID, but rather that the architecture of life prevents a naturalistic/materialistic (an essentially self-contradictory) framework of science from explaining it." Certainly I agree with you. My point is a very limited one. I am saying only that we raise the bar too high – far higher than any reasonable epistemology requires – when we allow our opponents to goad us into attempting to establish that any scientific conclusion is “sure.”BarryA
July 4, 2006
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The only sure way to solidify the biological design inference is to find the designer. As long as ignorance of it’s identity persists, doubts will persist, and there will be no sure way to dispel them short of actual designER detection. Mere design detection will not be enough for William to prevail against his foes.

Best regards,
apollo230

It would be worth pointing out what would happen if one takes non-ID explanations to the extreme.

For example, one might make the conclusion EVERY hallmark of intelligent behavior or life is driven by blind purposeless forces, and that the only thing provable is one's on consciousness. One can insist therefore there is no proof that people are conscious beings, but perhaps merely automatons passing the Turing test.

We call such a view, solpsistic. That is, the only thing such a person can be sure of is his own consciousness and intelligence. One would not have any means of foramally proving consciousness or intelligence exists outside of one's own experience, it is merely an assumption. But such a philosophical view would be inconsistent with they way one conducts oneself in every other facet of ones life.

So, yes, we may hypothetically suggest an non-ID explanation for life, but one has to be careful to realize such arguments come very close to solpsistic philosophy. That is to say, one will always have the capacity to deny intelligent agency no matter how evident if one so chooses.

Salvador

scordova
July 4, 2006
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Mung, I updated the above links. Try this link: html version or pdf version Great to see you! Salscordova
July 4, 2006
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The only sure way to solidify the biological design inference is to find the designer. As long as ignorance of it's identity persists, doubts will persist, and there will be no sure way to dispel them short of actual designER detection. Mere design detection will not be enough for William to prevail against his foes. Best regards, apollo230apollo230
July 4, 2006
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A peer-reviewed article on this very topic by Trevors and Abel in the journal, Cell International...
Sal, could you PM me over at ARN or someplace with your email address? I'd like to get a copy of this from you if you have it. The most interesting item, to me, from the abstract:
Minimal metabolism would be needed for cells to be capable of growth and division. All known metabolism is cybernetic – that is, it is programmatically and algorithmically organized and controlled.
This is one reason why I like to concentrate on the origin of metabolism.Mung
July 4, 2006
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Thank you for your suggestions Barry, I will think upon them....

Regarding the certainty, regarding being "sure", I was not asserting the certainty of ID, but rather that the architecture of life prevents a naturalistic/materilaistic (an essentially self-contradictory) framework of science from explaining it. It is not a matter of metaphysics, it is a mattter that a naturalist framing of science is self-contradictory when it attempts to say the orgin of life has a naturalistic/materialistic explanation.

We can be "sure" in otherwords, that attempts at naturalistic/materialistic explanations for life are logically incoherent in much the same way as saying the square root of 2 has a rational description.

The architecture of life is thus a perfect candidate to resist a naturalistic/materialistic explanation. Whether ID is true, is a separate question, but I think it is the most reasonable explanation.

Salvador

scordova
July 4, 2006
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The paper has several holes in the "proof":

The cause-and-effect necessity described by natural law manifests a probability approaching 1.0.

Where do they prove this? It's stated in the paper, but with no citation to other work, or any demonstration that it is the case.

There is simply not enough Shannon uncertainty in cause-and-effect determinism and its reductionistic laws to retain instructions for life.

Again, an assertion, but with nothing to back it up. Where is the theorem that shows how much "Shannon uncertainty" is necessary?

Bob

(My response is below, several comments down -- Sal)

Bob OH
July 4, 2006
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Salvador,

Thank you for the excellent post. There is one thing I am curious about though. You set the ID problem up by asking two questions:

A. How can we be sure we won’t make some discovery in the future that will invalidate the design inference?

B. How can we be sure we’ve eliminated all possible naturalistic causes, particularly since we have so few details of what happened so long ago when no one was around?

First, let me suggest that these two questions are really one question that could be phrased as: “How can we be sure there will not be a future discovery of a naturalistic cause of which we are presently unaware that accounts for the data?”

I am curious about why you use the word “sure.” Must we be able to assert that our scientific theory is “sure” in the absolute sense of the word? I think not. Indeed, I would suggest that Popper was correct when he said that all scientific conclusions are contingent. Popper wrote: “. . . there can be no ultimate statements in science: there can be no statements in science which cannot be tested, and therefore none which cannot in principle be refuted, by falsifying some of the conclusions which can be deduced from them.” Karl Popper, The Logic of Scientific Discovery, (New York, Routledge Classics, 1959, reprint of first English edition, 2002), 25.

He also wrote: “Science does not rest on solid bedrock. The bold structure of its theories rises, as it were, above a swamp. It is like a building erected on piles. The piles are driven down from above into the swamp, but not down to any natural or ‘given’ base; and if we stop driving the piles deeper, it is not because we have reached firm ground. We simply stop when we are satisfied that the piles are firm enough to carry the structure, at least for the time being.” Karl Popper, The Logic of Scientific Discovery, (New York, Routledge Classics, 1959, reprint of first English edition, 2002), 94.

I don’t always agree with Popper, but this seems right to me. In asserting a scientific conclusion there is no need to negate all possible objections, present or future. This is obviously impossible. Our goal is to posit the best explanation of the data, recognizing that just as Newton gave way to Einstein in many respects, future discoveries may overtake our conclusion.

So I would say that the answer to your question must always be: “We cannot be sure.” The design inference is currently the best explanation of the data given our present knowledge. But that conclusion, like all scientific conclusions, is contingent. It is not – indeed cannot be –impregnable to future discoveries.

I agree with Barry on this point. Surety is not something that science encompasses. In all fairness however Sal was talking about mathematical proof and proofs are something that math does encompass. The problem is I don't believe that ID can be proven like it can be proven that the angles in a triangle always add up to 180 degrees. The unprovable point lies in the probalistic resources. One can never be certain that all probalistic resources are known and accounted for. But fortunately in science as in a courtroom the metric in question is reasonable doubt. -ds BarryA
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