Uncommon Descent Serving The Intelligent Design Community

Putting a Stake in the Heart of the “Science is Neutral and Objective” Cliché with One Chart

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The next time you hear some maroon* tell you that science is an objective, neutral, self-correcting project whose only purpose is to conduct a dispassionate search for truth, show them this chart.

Climate-Model-Comparison-1024x921

95% of the models are wrong. It would be one thing if 50% came out predicting warmer than actual and 50% came out predicting cooler than actual. But what does it say when over 95% of the models are BOTH  wrong and wrong in predicting warmer than actual?  That was a rhetorical question.

Usual liberal response to facts like this: ” Shut up you officious climate denier! And give me your money.”

Say what you want about “science.”  The fact remains that science is conducted by scientists, and scientists are human.  As humans they are not immune to group think.  Perhaps they are even especially susceptible to it; there is evidence for that proposition.  Nor are they immune to seeking their own financial best interests, and long ago they tripped to the fact that the gov’mint will give them money if they continue to churn out alarmist computer models.

________

*For “maroon” see here.

Comments
Yet the climate, she is a-changin' The mean sea-level as measured in New York harbor continues to rise. As the world's population continues to grow so does its consumption of resources, so does its generation of waste products, including atmospheric pollution Yes, the world's climate goes through natural cycles and oscillations but there's one thing different now. Us. Seven and a quarter billion of us. And climbing. You think we're not making a difference? Go and try a lungful of Beijing smog. The real question is when will the denialists finally concede there's a problem? When most of Florida disappears under the waves?Seversky
November 22, 2014
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It's all just a big scam. They used to say the earth was going to go though another ice age, then they said it's actually global warming, now because they don't really know anything, they call it "climate change". It's just like the hole in the ozone layer baloney.logically_speaking
November 21, 2014
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Bob, the thrust of the argument is that the vast majority of the computer models are both wrong and predicting warmer than actual. You say that statement is a deception. Are you telling me the models have been accurate?
Err, no, I'm not commenting either way on the models, and I'm also not saying that the statement is a deception - that would imply that Spencer was deliberately using a baseline that makes most of the models appear wrong. I wouldn't want to speculate on what Spencer was thinking when he out together his plot. I'm also not commenting on the accuracy of the other models. Climate modelling isn't my area, and I haven't looked at the statistical issues in climate modelling deeply enough to feel able to give an opinion.Bob O'H
November 21, 2014
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Barry 25: //"There are two senses of “bias” at work here. You don’t seem capable of seeing the more important one."// I see it very clearly. There is the measurement bias that the scientists have been transparent in displaying and explaining, and there is the bias that yourself and other science deniers misrepresent to support an ideology.gmilling
November 21, 2014
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Adapa, but it does work like a charm, doesn't it? Because, you see, the facts can't be wrong if they are corroborated by multiple sources (see #3). So the truth should be spread (see OP), and ideally used to smear science as a whole.hrun0815
November 21, 2014
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Talk is cheap but this most certainly wasn't: http://mjperry.blogspot.com/2010/05/al-gores-9-million-ocean-view-villa.html Imagine the carbon footprint. Do as I say but don't do as I do, even as I bet against the ocean rising.Edward
November 21, 2014
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Bob O'H Poking around, there’s a nice explanation of this: whether people here agree or not with the writer’s conclusions that what Spencer did was dodgy, it’s still worth reading so you know what the arguments are about. Wow, I knew Roy Spencer was a climate change denier whack-job but I had no idea he was that dishonest. Manipulating the data like that to paint his false picture was truly despicable.Adapa
November 21, 2014
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Oops. Here's the link: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/2014/10Zachriel
November 21, 2014
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The chart doesn't show error bars, so there's no way to evaluate the claim. In any case, October 2014 was the warmest October on record, and November 2013–October 2014 was the warmest 12-month period on record.Zachriel
November 21, 2014
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gmilling, There are two senses of "bias" at work here. You don't seem capable of seeing the more important one.Barry Arrington
November 21, 2014
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//"95% of the models are wrong."// No. 95% are biased but within the uncertainty of the models. Every measurement has an uncertainty associated with it. When you develop models based on measurements, you must propagate the uncertainty throughout the model. Anybody who understands measurement science, which climate research is, understands this concept. However, when lobbyists and lawyers hear the word "uncertainty" (a quantifiable scientific term which is analogous to confidence level) they spin it to suit their ideology.gmilling
November 21, 2014
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And I am sure that you are hopeful in your search to find your match.Joe
November 21, 2014
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No, Tamara. It just shows that other people, scientists even, are agreeing with me.
What it really serves to illustrate Joe is that in the age of the internet, an individual can always find somebody out there who shares their views, regardles of their veracity.Tamara Knight
November 21, 2014
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Bob, the thrust of the argument is that the vast majority of the computer models are both wrong and predicting warmer than actual. You say that statement is a deception. Are you telling me the models have been accurate? Or are you telling me that even if they have been inaccurate they are evenly divided between predicting too warm and predicting too cold? If that is the case, I eagerly await all of the examples of accurate or "predicted too cold" models that must be out there to make your case. Can you give me a few citations?Barry Arrington
November 21, 2014
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Hey that is the way it is with natural selection and biological fitness- the scientists agree with me and oppose your versions. Go figure...Joe
November 21, 2014
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No, Tamara. It just shows that other people, scientists even, are agreeing with me.Joe
November 21, 2014
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And if it says what you have been saying all along, then it is correct by definition, right?Tamara Knight
November 21, 2014
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I just received my copy of About Face! Why the World Needs More Carbon Dioxide The beginning says what I have been saying all along- that plants need CO2 and we need plants and that parts per million cannot influence the climate the way the alarmists claim. And that is just two pages into the introduction.Joe
November 21, 2014
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The definition of science is simple and quantitative. Grant > $1M : Science. Grant < $1M : Denialism! Bushitler! Racism! Sexism! Homophobia! Halliburton! Koch!polistra
November 21, 2014
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bb @ 6 -
Even though the actual temperatures a are lower, they’re following the same general pattern/direction as that predicted.
Look carefully: these aren't temperatures that are plotted: they all start at the same value at 1983, and the y-axis says they are departures from the 1979-1983 average. If the models were under-estimating the temperature in those 5 years, then you would get an overestimate in the following 30. Poking around, there's a nice explanation of this: whether people here agree or not with the writer's conclusions that what Spencer did was dodgy, it's still worth reading so you know what the arguments are about.Bob O'H
November 21, 2014
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Here is the paper in PNAS published in September 2014 http://www.pnas.org/content/111/40/14360.abstract No global warming and certainly not manmade....Andre
November 20, 2014
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Adapa As for your pacific warming quip........ It was not man made it is part of the natural heating and cooling cycle..... http://www.techtimes.com/articles/16288/20140925/west-coast-warming-blame-pacific-winds-humans.htmAndre
November 20, 2014
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Adapa actually NOT....... http://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/01/01/ipcc-silently-slashes-its-global-warming-predictions-in-the-ar5-final-draft/Andre
November 20, 2014
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OldArmy94 I think most of us know about confidence intervals, The guy who wrote that article sure didn't. Unless he was being intentionally dishonest. Which do you think it is? but when you have NINETY FIVE PERCENT of the models that are estimating temperatures higher than the actual means, then there is a problem Most wouldn't describe it as a problem but certainly the models needed to be tweaked to be more accurate. As it turns out further study showed the amount deep parts of the Pacific were acting as a heat sink was underestimated. Those new data have been factored in and the results still don't look too good. Here is a nice overview of how the models weren't wrong and how results can be misrepresented. IPCC model global warming projections have done much better than you think One rule of thumb - if any anti-AGW hit piece is shown on Faux News it's a virtual certainty to be a politically motivated lie.Adapa
November 20, 2014
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Adapa, I think most of us know about confidence intervals, but when you have NINETY FIVE PERCENT of the models that are estimating temperatures higher than the actual means, then there is a problem. And, really, the use of the term "denier" is not clever. In fact, all it does is tell me that you don't have the facts on your side and have to resort to ad hominem.OldArmy94
November 20, 2014
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Science is indeed a methodology. so its up to the humans on how well they do it. We don't do much well. So researchers always skrew up. presumptions/bias rule human thinking. i question if science methodology is much of a break to it. finally science does employ intelligence. its possible less intelligent people easily get degrees in their late teens and early twenties. global warming is a error and a strange enduring one. smarter people will debunk it soon enough.Robert Byers
November 20, 2014
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Sorry guys but the models weren't "wrong". The actual temperature rise fell between the predicted uncertainty ranges, albeit on the low side. If the weather forecaster calls for 6 to 10" of snow and you get 6.5" then he wasn't wrong either. Climate models are constantly being reviewed and revised with new data to try and make them more accurate. That's how science works. But what we had before wasn't wrong. Why does it not surprise me folks here don't know about or understand confidence intervals and error ranges? BTW this is way old and rather silly propaganda from the climate change denier camp. I wonder why it took so long to reach here?Adapa
November 20, 2014
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In what way is the science of Intelligent Design not neutral and not objective?rhampton7
November 20, 2014
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Prediction: The graph will be explained away. Even though the actual temperatures a are lower, they're following the same general pattern/direction as that predicted.bb
November 20, 2014
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While Bill Nye would preach/yell/punch using the most aggressive prediction, the guy/gal who came up with the "orange line" model that has been tracking the actual data most closely is ignored. The problem is obnoxious Science Convincers not stupid Science Deniers.ppolish
November 20, 2014
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