Uncommon Descent Serving The Intelligent Design Community

Responding to Dr Liddle’s challenge as to whether science can study “the supernatural”

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In Gil’s recent ANNOUNCEMENT thread, Dr Liddle has made a summary of her core challenge to design thinkers, at no 6:

Science necessarily involves an a priori commitment to the proposition that natural causes are the reason for everything.

It does not possess the methodology to discover any other kind of cause.

What methodology would you recommend for investigating an un-natural/supernatural cause?

I have thought this is sufficiently focussed to respond on points (currently awaiting moderation, on I think number of links . . . ). I augment that response here where I can use colours [Dr Liddle’s remarks are in bolded green], fill in diagrams and links:

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>>Science necessarily involves

a: This is a claim of MUST, i.e this is already a commitment that suggests that apart from this no science, so how do you account for the facts of the founding of modern science and the views of the actual founders thereof, as I have documented say here?

an a priori commitment to the proposition that natural causes are the reason for everything.

b: NIX. Science only implicates the study of empirically observable and testable phenomena, which in turn implicates the question of inference from well-tested sign to signified cause.

c: We may and do categorise these as tracing to chance, necessity and choice, whereby we may further cluster the first two as material or natural, and the latter as artificial. This categorisation is for instance used by Plato, by Newton and by Monod [cf his, Chance and Necessity]

d: We may characterise and study each of these causal factors on their general signs, and further investigate on the specific observed object or phenomenon. To wit, we may see that:

i: by mechanical necessity, we get lawlike regularities — i.e. low contingency of outcomes — under sufficiently similar starting conditions (a dropped heavy object falls at g), a common enough goal of scientific investigation being to identify such laws, e.g. F = m*a

ii: by chance, under similar initial conditions, we have highly contingent outcomes (a dropped die will tumble and settle to various readings) in accordance with a statistical distribution. Sometimes scientific investigations try to characterise such distributions and their roots, e.g. the Weibull distribution of wind speeds etc.

iii: by choice, we will also get highly contingent outcomes under similar starting conditions, but credibly linked to purpose not chance, e.g. the pattern of symbols in messages as opposed to noise — studied in and foundational to information theory.

It does not possess the methodology to discover any other kind of cause.

e: This is premised on an assumption that the only way we may categorise the world is on natural vs supernatural, where the later may be derided.

f: In short, this is an implicit — perhaps unrecognised — assumption of a priori MATERIALISM, not an open-minded, empirically based investigation of the world as is, in light of empirical facts and observations, explained without ideologically censoring possibilities

g: Do we know that all that there is, is “natural,” or that science may only study and explain by the “natural”? That depends, crucially on what you mean by “natural.”

h: If you mean a smuggling in of materialism by assumptions and definitions, that is a major begging of the question, for what science studies is the EMPIRICALLY OBSERVABLE in a world that credibly had a beginning.

i: Such a cosmos, is credibly contingent, i.e. it entails a cause external to itself, as if something may not exist or had a beginning, it has conditions under which it may/may not exist.

j: In turn that points to a causal root in a necessary being, that has no external causal dependency. Such a being has no beginning, and has no end. By logic. (Formerly, until it was recognised that the evidence points to a beginning for the cosmos we live in, the Steady State type view assumed the wider observed cosmos was that necessary being, but now Humpty Dumpty has fallen. [We need not go into the wider discussion of contingency, contingency on a credible beginning is enough to force consideration of possibilities, then.])

k: Multiply by the evident fine tuning of our observed cosmos, that supports C-chemistry cell based life; which is also relevant even in the case of an assumed or speculated wider multiverse, as LOCAL fine tuning is enough. As John Leslie put it:

. . . the need for such explanations [[for fine-tuning] does not depend on any estimate of how many universes would be observer-permitting, out of the entire field of possible universes. Claiming that our universe is ‘fine tuned for observers’, we base our claim on how life’s evolution would apparently have been rendered utterly impossible by comparatively minor [[emphasis original] alterations in physical force strengths, elementary particle masses and so forth. There is no need for us to ask whether very great alterations in these affairs would have rendered it fully possible once more, let alone whether physical worlds conforming to very different laws could have been observer-permitting without being in any way fine tuned. Here it can be useful to think of a fly on a wall, surrounded by an empty region. A bullet hits the fly Two explanations suggest themselves. Perhaps many bullets are hitting the wall or perhaps a marksman fired the bullet. There is no need to ask whether distant areas of the wall, or other quite different walls, are covered with flies so that more or less any bullet striking there would have hit one. The important point is that the local area contains just the one fly.

[[Our Place in the Cosmos, 1998. The force of this point is deepened once we think about what has to be done to get a rifle into “tack-driving” condition.That is, a “tack-driving” rifle is a classic example of a finely tuned, complex system, i.e. we are back at the force of Collins’ point on a multiverse model needing a well adjusted Cosmos bakery. (Slide show, ppt. “Simple” summary, doc.)]

l: That points to functionally specific, complex organisation of a cosmos [and associated complex information], something that is habitually and empirically associated with choice and purpose, i.e. design. Indeed, in every case where we directly know the cause for such FSCO/I, it is designed.

m: So, we have as a reasonable possibility — and, arguably a best explanation — that the observed cosmos is externally caused by a purposive, powerful, necessary being, which has no beginning, no ending, and that based on scientific observation and the logic of contingency. Such a being is warranted on our contingent world, and is causally self-sufficient, i.e. self-explanatory. The real issue is the nature of the necessary being, not its existence, once we have a contingent cosmos to be explained. And, blind necessity or a chaos are vastly inferior to intelligence as explanations of FSCO/I, absent imposition of a priori materialism — i.e. we here see the censoring effect of the materialistic question-begging above.

n: Since, too, we have here a case in hand where science has indeed studied origins, and the beginning of our world, and — absent question-begging censorship — a serious alternative points beyond the contingent “natural” world we inhabit to root cause by an entirely different category of being, we already see that science can not only study natural vs artificial, but design by an entirely different category of being that can credibly be termed, supernatural. That is, beyond nature in the sense of our observed cosmos. (The proposed multiverse we hear about so often today is UN-observed.)

What methodology would you recommend for investigating an un-natural/ supernatural cause?

o: First, stop begging metaphysical questions by imposing a priori materialism, or going along with such imposition, not hard as that evolutionary materialism (aka scientific materialism aka [scientific] naturalism etc etc) is already self-referentially incoherent, self refuting and necessarily false, by undermining mind itself. As Haldane summed up the challenge it faces:

“It seems to me immensely unlikely that mind is a mere by-product of matter. For if my mental processes are determined wholly by the motions of atoms in my brain I have no reason to suppose that my beliefs are true. They may be sound chemically, but that does not make them sound logically. And hence I have no reason for supposing my brain to be composed of atoms.” [“When I am dead,” in Possible Worlds: And Other Essays [1927], Chatto and Windus: London, 1932, reprint, p.209.]

p: Then, recognise that it is more useful to scientifically study natural and artificial causes on an empirical basis, and so to focus their characteristic signs, than to beg metaphysical questions.

q: Nor should we allow ideologues to rattle us with their Alinskyite uncivil bully-boy tactics of distortion, denigration, censorship and intimidation.

r: For instance, this pattern as follows is reasonable and quite often actually used, tracing to say Hippocrates of Cos and early medicine, and also reflecting Peirce’s more recent logic of abductive inference:

I: [si] –> O, on W

(I infer from a pattern of observed signs, to an objective state of affairs, on a particular warrant [often, inference to best explanation], each to be specified case by case, cause by cause.)

s: Then, proceed on the understanding that we commonly observe causal patterns that may be described with profit as natural or material [= chance and/or necessity], and intelligent [= art or design or choice contingency].

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Fig. A: the Explanatory Filter algorithm [framework] for empirically warranted per aspect inference to design, chance and necessity  on empirical signs.  (Courtesy IOSE)

t: In that light, identify and test characteristic reliable signs of these causal processes for aspects of phenomena, processes or objects.

u: Just as, in say studying a pendulum [a case of direct manipulation as experimental design], we identify what is caused by the experimenter manipulating the string’s length, what is or is not due to varying the mass of the bob, what is chance-based random scatter around a line that characterises a law of mechanical necessity, and what is due to the dynamics of a pendulum swinging across an arc in a gravity field. (And similarly, how — using ANOVA — we isolate factors in a control vs treatment study across blocks and plots.)

v: In short, we routinely apply the explanatory filter algorithm in doing scientific studies, so it is not unreasonable to identify general signs of the relevant causal factors, and to trust them if they pass reasonable tests, e.g. necessity produces lawlike regularities, chance produces statistical scatter, and choice produces FSCO/I.

(If you see a pendulum experiment set up with apparatus fitted to the purpose of adjusting length of string, arc, and mass, with a timer sitting nearby and a record of results on say a coded digital tape, do you infer to chance or choice or necessity? Why?)

w: Now, the hard step: have the courage to trust the patterns of warranted inference beyond where we have direct access to observe the causal process. This is the step taken by Newton when he said, in his General Scholium to Principia:

. . . This most beautiful system of the sun, planets, and comets, could only proceed from the counsel and dominion of an intelligent and powerful Being. And if the fixed stars are the centres of other like systems, these, being formed by the like wise counsel, must be all subject to the dominion of One; especially since the light of the fixed stars is of the same nature with the light of the sun, and from every system light passes into all the other systems: and lest the systems of the fixed stars should, by their gravity, fall on each other mutually, he hath placed those systems at immense distances one from another . . .

x: In short, if we see a tested, reliable pattern of inference from sign to signified state of affairs, we have good reason to trust that it will expend to cases where we cannot directly check.

y: Now, simply apply to the origin of our cosmos, as above. We see signs of art, i.e FSCO/I, in the context of fine-tuning that facilitates C-chemistry, cell based intelligent life. We see also that we have an evidently contingent cosmos that cries out for a root cause in a necessary being.

(You will note that I do NOT use the case of evidence pointing to design in life, as this is a case where, from the very beginnings of modern design theory [i.e. Thaxton et al in TMLO in 1985] — as utterly contrasted to the caricatures being used by objectors — it has been recognised that design of cell based life on earth would be sufficiently accounted for by a designer within the cosmos. Say, a molecular nanotech lab several generations beyond Venter et al.)

z: That is as far as science and logic proper will take us, but:

1: that is far enough to see that a very viable candidate will be an intelligent, extra-cosmic, powerful, purposeful and deeply knowledgeable necessary being;

2: this being a case of empirically based, observationally anchored inference to design or art, as opposed to

3: a priorism-driven inference to or against “the supernatural.”

4: Philosophy and theology will take the ball and run with it from there.

5: Such a being would be a very good example of the super-natural, pointed to by investigations of nature on empirically well warranted patterns of cause and effect.

6: So, we see that science needs not essay to study “the supernatural” only to study natural vs artificial causes on empirically tested warrant.

7: It therefore is high time that the materialists’ favourite “natural vs supernatural” strawman caricature of our alternatives, was laid to rest, with a stake through its heart.

8: We only need to study, on empirical signs, natural vs artificial causes. As was pointed out by Plato, 2,350 years ago, in The Laws, Bk X. Namely:

[[The avant garde philosophers, teachers and artists c. 400 BC] say that the greatest and fairest things are the work of nature and of chance, the lesser of art [[ i.e. techne], which, receiving from nature the greater and primeval creations, moulds and fashions all those lesser works which are generally termed artificial . . . They say that fire and water, and earth and air [[i.e the classical “material” elements of the cosmos], all exist by nature and chance, and none of them by art, and that as to the bodies which come next in order-earth, and sun, and moon, and stars-they have been created by means of these absolutely inanimate existences. The elements are severally moved by chance and some inherent force according to certain affinities among them-of hot with cold, or of dry with moist, or of soft with hard, and according to all the other accidental admixtures of opposites which have been formed by necessity. After this fashion and in this manner the whole heaven has been created, and all that is in the heaven, as well as animals and all plants, and all the seasons come from these elements, not by the action of mind, as they say, or of any God, or from art, but as I was saying, by nature and chance only . . . .
Then, by Heaven, we have discovered the source of this vain opinion of all those physical investigators; and I would have you examine their arguments with the utmost care, for their impiety is a very serious matter; they not only make a bad and mistaken use of argument, but they lead away the minds of others: that is my opinion of them . . . .
all of them, my friends, seem to be ignorant of the nature and power of the soul [[ = psuche], especially in what relates to her origin: they do not know that she is among the first of things, and before all bodies, and is the chief author of their changes and transpositions. And if this is true, and if the soul is older than the body, must not the things which are of the soul’s kindred be of necessity prior to those which appertain to the body? . . . .
when one thing changes another, and that another, of such will there be any primary changing element? How can a thing which is moved by another ever be the beginning of change? Impossible. But when the self-moved changes other, and that again other, and thus thousands upon tens of thousands of bodies are set in motion, must not the beginning of all this motion be the change of the self-moving principle? . . . . self-motion being the origin of all motions, and the first which arises among things at rest as well as among things in motion, is the eldest and mightiest principle of change, and that which is changed by another and yet moves other is second . . . .
If, my friend, we say that the whole path and movement of heaven, and of all that is therein, is by nature akin to the movement and revolution and calculation of mind, and proceeds by kindred laws, then, as is plain, we must say that the best soul takes care of the world and guides it along the good path. [[Plato here explicitly sets up an inference to design (by a good soul) from the intelligible order of the cosmos.]

___________

In short, the matter pivots on breaking a powerfully institutionalised strawman caricature of the scientific method, and our investigatory and warranting options.

Our real, as opposed to strawman options are to study:

Natural vs supernatural artificial causes.>>

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In short, I argue that the whole issue being raised of inference to natural vs supernatural as opposed to the reasoning on natural vs artificial causes and signs thereof, is a strawman fallacy, and so also a red herring distractor.

What are your own thoughts, on what grounds? END

Comments
PaV: I had thought I had actually responded to your #52, though it seems I haven't. Essentially I agreed with markf at 60. Re your #55: You may be right about Paul. But I'm not arguing from scripture anyway. The reason I think its "bad theology" isn't because it isn't scriptural, but because it seems to me illogical at best (how could a creator God be missing from large parts of his/her creation?), and, at worst, no more than the inference of some natural, powerful, and not necessary benign fellow inhabitant of our universe. Cthulhu? Re your #56:
Elizabeth: You write:
The turning point was not evidence (as I’ve said, I think the idea that there could be evidence for a Prime Mover within the Moved is bad theology, and also bad logic!)
Isn’t this very poor logic? If there is no evidence of “a Prime Mover within the Moved”, then you cannot claim that the “Moved” moved. So where does that get you?
Well, I can see it moving! But let me try to be clearer: in science, the way we detect the existence of effective things is by means of differential effects: we compare the effects in the presence or absence of some variable (preferably an experimentally manipulated variable, but often an observed correlation). And if we find a difference, then we can deduce that something that makes a difference is present in one condition and absent in another. But if God's presence is everywhere, and underlies everything - if he is the Prime Mover, the "ground of our being" etc etc, then there can be no differential effect - we can't compare bits of the universe that differ in some property and infer that the difference must be due to different degrees of godliness. That's what I meant anyway :) Apologies for not getting to your posts earlier.Elizabeth Liddle
June 22, 2011
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Dr Liddle: A highly contingent outcome on similar initial circumstances will vary considerably. Sometimes by chance, sometimes by choice. The dropping of a die and its tumbling to a value is a good paradigm example. In management, if one does a log frame, one needs to account for factors that can vary beyond control that sharply affect outcomes, sometimes due to chance, sometimes to choice [including that of other parties in the situation, cf here a payoff table]. Once there is a widespread field of possibilities under fundamentally similar start points, we have a contingent outcome. Think about how a bit string may be loaded with different values, randomly or by choice. Or how a string of coins can be tumbled at random or set to readings by choice, which is quite similar. GEM of TKI
OK, thanks. Well, in that case my errors cancelled out :) So by "highly contingent" you seem to me to mean what I was getting at when I said "deeply nested contingencies". Whereas a much more simply contingent event might be something that is contingent on only one other event (the cannon ball will drop to the ground if Galileo lets go, and little else is likely to influence its landing place and time). Right? Well, in that case I would simply say that if we find a fairly incompressible pattern and that pattern is also one of a smallish subset of possible patterns with similar compressibility, then we can infer that it is the result of a deeply nested system of contingencies. Would you agree thus far?Elizabeth Liddle
June 22, 2011
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PaV Elizabeth Liddle: I’ve left a number of posts which you seem to diligently ignore. May I ask if there is a reason for this? Yes - lack of time! Also, I do, I confess, tend to click on latest post links, so if there's a big gap between my logins, I often miss bits of a conversation. Apologies (also I still owe Upright BiPed a substantial response on yet another thread). I will try to address your posts. Thanks for alerting me to them. LizzieElizabeth Liddle
June 22, 2011
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markf:
However, as you point out, the inference to the supernatural is because there is no scientific explanation. If there were a scientific explanation it would not be supernatural.
First, we know that this miracle takes place. You can't simply deny that it happens. Second, it appears to be just what I said: miraculous. Third, if it is miraculous, then, quite obviously, "supernatural" forces are at work in our world---and they have been for a long time (this miracle is known to have happened for centuries now.) Fourth, we don't say: "Oh, I can't explain it scientifically, so it must be supernatural,", but the other way around: "It's a miracle---unless some kind of explanation other than the supernatural can be given." Fifth, the onus is on materialists to come up with a "scientific" explanation, else, they can no longer continue to be materialists and intellectually honest at the same time. Sixth, if you look at the supposed critique of/explanation for this miracle, you'll notice a few things: a) the spectral lines are those of hemoglobin b) the thixotropic mixture they came up with only lasted two years before nor longer being able to liquefy c) their thixotropic mixture was mainly clay.
And if it is supernatural there is no scientific explanation and no scientific way to proceed. Which, as I understand it, is exactly Elizabeth’s point.
While it is true that if the cause of the miracle is supernatural, no scientific way forward presents itself. BUT, undeniably then, supernatural causes of this-worldy events cannot be excluded as explanations. Remember, Stephen Meyers says that ID has more "explanatory power" than Darwinian mechanisms. Also, Elizabeth will have to re-think herself on the idea of a Prime Mover not leaving any visible trace in things that are "Moved".PaV
June 22, 2011
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Elizabeth Liddle: I've left a number of posts which you seem to diligently ignore. May I ask if there is a reason for this?PaV
June 22, 2011
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Dr Liddle: A highly contingent outcome on similar initial circumstances will vary considerably. Sometimes by chance, sometimes by choice. The dropping of a die and its tumbling to a value is a good paradigm example. In management, if one does a log frame, one needs to account for factors that can vary beyond control that sharply affect outcomes, sometimes due to chance, sometimes to choice [including that of other parties in the situation, cf here a payoff table]. Once there is a widespread field of possibilities under fundamentally similar start points, we have a contingent outcome. Think about how a bit string may be loaded with different values, randomly or by choice. Or how a string of coins can be tumbled at random or set to readings by choice, which is quite similar. GEM of TKIkairosfocus
June 22, 2011
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kf: you are right, I misread that. In that case I am confused: What do you mean by "contingent"? Contingent on what? Thanks. LizzieElizabeth Liddle
June 22, 2011
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Mung: Let's toss a die. It falls and tumbles based on eight corners and twelve edges, exhibiting sensitive dependence on initial conditions. We can do a theoretical, Laplace's Demon type analysis and claim that the initial conditions and forces specify the outcome. Then, try to do it with real numbers and calculation. Immediately, sensitive dependence on initial conditions beyond our ability to control will trigger an utterly unpredictable outcome that settles to one of the six values basically at random. So, which is a better description: (a) the outcome was determined by initial conditions (which are not observable enough to actually test), or (b) the outcome is sensitively dependent on initial conditions and is effectively triggered by chance factors beyond control. Next, take up a sample of radioactive material. Let's say we can look at the individual atoms, let's say along a line with sensors that will pick up which point on the line decays. Try to specify initial conditions that will predict the sequence of atoms at what times will decay. Good luck. In both cases, we have statistically distributed outcomes that are highly contingent. Highly contingent, statistically distributed outcomes are a signature of chance causal factors. GEM of TKIkairosfocus
June 22, 2011
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Chance and necessity fall into quite useful categories of causal factors. Only if you believe that nothing can be the cause of something. For chance is not something that can be a cause of anything.
Mung
June 22, 2011
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F/N 3: Again, I am left to wonder at the straining at gnats while swallowing camels.kairosfocus
June 22, 2011
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F/N 2: Chance describes two different things indeed, one where there are accidents of circumstance that give rise to scatter [including the classic clashing of uncorrelated chains that may each be necessary, e.g. how my dad used to use non-correlation between names and phone numbers to get random numbers on the cheap], the other where there are stochastic dynamics at work. Chance may be further analysed, on the relevant aspects of an object or a phenomenon, but that does not entail that it is not real. Provisionality in analysis is a given in science.kairosfocus
June 22, 2011
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Science cannot distinguish the natural from the supernatural; it [Science] can only tell us what is not supernatural.
How, pray tell, can it do that? What methodology does Science use to tell us what is natural and what is not natural? Elizabeth Liddle:
I’m saying that science does NOT have the methodology to establish whether a cause is natural or not. I’ve said that several times.
Given that it has no methodological means by which to determine what is natural and what is not. From where I sit, you are talking out of both sides of your mouth, and contradicting yourself, and you don't even seem aware that you are doing it. To me, it's a perfect example of the a priori commitment raised in the OP. Your position is contradictory, self-refuting, and irrational.Mung
June 22, 2011
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F/N: On correction: Necessity is precisely NOT described as highly contingent. Indeed it is high contingency that points away from necessity (and to chance or choice); that is, if pretty much the same initial conditions gives pretty much the same outcomes you are dealing with a regularity tracing to a mechanical necessity, which can be characterised by tracing the curve so to speak. Which is how a lot of experimental science works. Of course there may be a relatively low contingency associated with random scatter typical of experiments. Please, look more carefully.kairosfocus
June 22, 2011
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Personally, I think Lizzie is supernatural. Dancing in the moonlight?allanius
June 22, 2011
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EL & M: Chance and necessity fall into quite useful categories of causal factors, thank you.
Yes, they do - but my point stands. What is Chance in one analysis may Necessity in another, and the only difference lies in what you have managed to measure.
Try to explain the radioactive decay curve of a given nuclide without them.
Of course, which was why I said:
So I don’t actually think that Chance and Necessity are absolute opposites – which is which is a function of what we know, at least until we get down to quantum effects.
And, try to explain this thread without intelligent cause expressing itself by choice. I find that too much of what is going on now is straining at gnats while swallowing camels.
Well, I guess I'm suggesting that the camel is an enormous gnat. Or rather: that when contingencies become sufficiently nested we start to call them things like "Design".Elizabeth Liddle
June 22, 2011
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Elizabeth Liddle:
Science can neither prove nor disprove the supernatural. It can it can only push back its limits.
HERE Let me rephrase that for you: Science can neither prove nor disprove the natural. It can it can only expand its limits. Do you see how irrational that claim is?
No, I don't, unless yet again you have misunderstood me. So I'll do the rephrasing myself: Science cannot distinguish the natural from the supernatural; it can only tell us what is not supernatural. Echos of Aquinas: we cannot tell what God is, only what God is not. And that's essentially why I've always thought that any argument that tried to prove God on the basis of scientific evidence is bad theology. If we insist that anything with a natural cause is Not God, then we confine God to an evershrinking corner of God's own creation. And it seems to me that one of the things that God is Not is a subset of the phenomena s/he is supposed to have made.Elizabeth Liddle
June 22, 2011
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EL & M: Chance and necessity fall into quite useful categories of causal factors, thank you. Try to explain the radioactive decay curve of a given nuclide without them. And, try to explain this thread without intelligent cause expressing itself by choice. I find that too much of what is going on now is straining at gnats while swallowing camels. GEM of TKIkairosfocus
June 22, 2011
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Dividing causes into “Chance” and “Necessity” is often convenient, but it begs a lot of questions.
Neither chance nor necessity is a cause of anything.Mung
June 22, 2011
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Elizabeth Liddle:
Science can neither prove nor disprove the supernatural. It can it can only push back its limits.
HERE Let me rephrase that for you: Science can neither prove nor disprove the natural. It can it can only expand its limits. Do you see how irrational that claim is?Mung
June 22, 2011
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CannuckianYankee:
How do you feel about the explanatory filter that KF highlighted in the OP? Do you think it’s a legitimate instrument for detecting design? Do you think the methodology highlighted in the EF is scientific?
I think it has some merit, but I think its categories are false. Dividing causes into "Chance" and "Necessity" is often convenient, but it begs a lot of questions. For example, kairosfocus brought up ANOVA, but any statistical test will do make a similar point; if we observe a correlation between, for example, weight and shoe size, we may find a "significant" correlation - an ordinarly least squares best fit line through the scatter plot will be "significantly" greater than zero. However, very few points, if any, will fall right on the line - and we can describe the distance between each point and the line as being "randomly" distributed, or due to "noise" - Chance, if you like, in addition to the Necessary relationship between weight and shoe size. However, if we add a covariate to our analysis - height, for instance, our "residuals" - the distances between each point and the line - will shrink. Now we have less noise. So what have we done? Well, we have explained for some of the variance that we had previously put into the "noise" or "Chance" bucket. And we can go on - if we also covary for BMI we might get an even closer relationship. And there may be other measurable variables that we can include to reduce the "random" variance. So in some senses of the word, "random" simply means "unexplained by our model". If we enlarge our model (explain more of our variance by Necessity and leave less in the Chance bin) then we get a better fit. So I don't actually think that Chance and Necessity are absolute opposites - which is which is a function of what we know, at least until we get down to quantum effects. My second issue, with the Filter, which is related, but not identical, is that "Necessity" is described as "Contingent". Again, I think "Contingent" is a misleading category. One could argue (although I accept that people here don't) that everything is "contingent" (and even at quantum level, reliably predictable statistically at least, unless you are a Cat in a Box). However, contingencies can be nested, and it seems to me that there is no clear criterion at which to judge that something is contingent or not. For instance, if you drop a cannon ball off the Tower of Pisa, it will hit the ground directly underneath with a very high probability. It's landing is almost entirely contingent on being dropped. However, flutter your wings in Peking and the hurricane that kits New York may be contingent on your flutter (in the sense that it would not have happened otherwise) but also contingent on so many other things that we may as well call the hurricane "Chance". And I would argue that such deeply nested contingent systems can produce patterns that are both complex (not readily compressible) and specified (one of a smallish subset of possible patterns of comparable compressibility). Geology is full of such patterns, but they are not usually ascribed to Design. So my version of the Filter is this: If a pattern is complex (not very compressible) and specified (one of a smallish subset of patterns that are similarly compressible) what we can infer is that a highly nested system of contingencies was responsible for the pattern. Such a set of contingencies could have been those inherent in a an Intentional Design process, but could also emerge from non-linear interactions between factors that themselves possess fairly simple properties. Anyway, thanks for asking :) Cheers LizzieElizabeth Liddle
June 22, 2011
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Elizabeth Liddle:
I’m saying that science does NOT have the methodology to establish whether a cause is natural or not. I’ve said that several times.
Then does it not follow that it is NOT the case that:
It [Science] does not possess the methodology to discover any other kind of cause.
Indeed, if there are only two mutually exclusive causes, natural and supernatural, then it follows that: It [Science] does not possess the methodology to discover any kind of cause.
I’m saying scientific methods cannot determine whether a cause is supernatural or not.
That's what I've been saying for some time now. Nice to have you aboard. But what is the consequence of that? Elizabeth Liddle:
Science necessarily involves an a priori commitment to the proposition that natural causes are the reason for everything.
Well, no. It doesn't. For that would be irrational.Mung
June 22, 2011
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D: 1: You will see the issue is to discern between noise and signal on reliable index, which is at the heart of communication theory. We all know that my posts are not noise, what NR is sideslipping is HOW he can know that, and the reason is that the straight answer cuts clean through his objection above in 47. 2: Science is still dependent for its warrant on philosophy. Technical elaboration has not changed that [we no longer rely on filling a skull with seeds to measure its volume . . . ], nor has the cultural presence of science. GEM of TKIkairosfocus
June 22, 2011
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KF,
Doveton: The underlying logic prevails: science as process is applied epistemology. And while the daughter has overshadowed the mother, she still depends on her for sustenance and support. GEM of TKI
Well, while I agree in principle with this, KF, I'm not sure which of my comments you are responding to and thus I'm not sure what the context is. Could you elaborate please?Doveton
June 22, 2011
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KF @71,
NR: LOL! Wheel, and tun and come again, but dis time don’t dance wrong but strong: (snipped for brevity) (Onlookers, cf 63 above.) GEM of TKI
Just curious, KF, but what difference should it make to Mr. Rickert (or anyone else for that matter) if you are just noise on the internet so long as Mr. Rickert enjoys the perception of posting to that noise?Doveton
June 22, 2011
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But I guess I have to take at least partial responsibility for the failure to communicate.
You do understand the difference between a cause and an explanation then, right? That’s not a “scientific explanation” because it does not invoke a natural cause. That’s the latest beef? Please tell us the scientific methodology that science uses to establish scientifically whether a cause is natural or not.
This is getting a little bizarre. I'm saying that science does NOT have the methodology to establish whether a cause is natural or not. I've said that several times. I'm not sure how to express myself more clearly. The complication has been that people have presented a couple of different definitions of "natural". So let me be even more specific: Science has the methodology to detect whether something is artificial nor not, so if "natural" is defined as "non-artificial" then my statement is incorrect. Science has the methodology to investigate minds and quantum effects, so if "natural" is defined to exclude those phenomena, then my statement is incorrect. Science has the methodology to investigate any effect it can measure, even if that something is supposed to be "supernatural". So if there is a class of phenomena such as ghosts, or miracles or prayer, or whatever whose effects can be measured, then science can do that too. What it can't do is conclude that they are "supernatural" whatever word people use to describe them. If scientists found that prayer worked, scientifically, then that would be cool. But it wouldn't prove God, nor would it prove "the supernatural" except in a colloquial sense. It would simply add to our understanding of regularities in the world.
You will not. You cannot. The only way to do so is to become irrational, the very thing that ‘Science’ is supposed to save us from. oops.
Well, exactly. Which is why I keep saying that it's what science can't do. Is that clear now? I'm saying scientific methods cannnot determine whether a cause is supernatural or not Not won't, can't. It's not censorship, it's methodological. But it can detect design. So kf is right.Elizabeth Liddle
June 22, 2011
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Doveton: The underlying logic prevails: science as process is applied epistemology. And while the daughter has overshadowed the mother, she still depends on her for sustenance and support. GEM of TKIkairosfocus
June 22, 2011
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NR: LOL! Wheel, and tun and come again, but dis time don't dance wrong but strong:
[KF:] Could you kindly tell us how you know that you are dealing with a real participant in an exchange and not lucky noise over the internet? {NR:] It doesn’t actually matter. I am not expecting to persuade whoever or whatever I am replying to. Rather, I am leaving an honest response, and any real persons who are reading this can then examine the various arguments that they read and decide for themselves how they will judge the arguments.
(Onlookers, cf 63 above.) GEM of TKIkairosfocus
June 22, 2011
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PaV, you wrote...
I’m speaking of the liquefaction of St. Januarius’ blood which takes place whenever the vial containing the dry blood of the martyr is placed nearby his head. This miracle has taken place for centuries upon centuries. And there is no plausible scientific explanation for this miracle.
I'm curious. What is your explanation of this event?lastyearon
June 22, 2011
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But I guess I have to take at least partial responsibility for the failure to communicate.
You do understand the difference between a cause and an explanation then, right? That's not a "scientific explanation" because it does not invoke a natural cause. That's the latest beef? Please tell us the scientific methodology that science uses to establish scientifically whether a cause is natural or not. You will not. You cannot. The only way to do so is to become irrational, the very thing that 'Science' is supposed to save us from. oops.Mung
June 22, 2011
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kairosfocus (#63):
In a context where you have already played the “ignorant, stupid, insane or wicked card,” THIS IS POINTEDLY, REVEALINGLY EVASIVE.
There was nothing evasive about my answer. You asked a question of the form "How do you know X?" My direct and honest answer is that I do not know X, I do not claim to know X, and my own participation in this discussion does not require that I know X. I participate here in the interest of engaging in honest open discussion. It was not my expectation that I would thereby become the target of completely unwarranted insult. As for the origin of life question that you raise: I make no claims of knowledge about how life originated. It is an unsettled question. Science does not currently claim to have any answers, though some scientists have speculative hypotheses. In short, I will not be responding to what you wrote on that issue.Neil Rickert
June 22, 2011
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