Time to End One-Size-Fits-All Virus Response

_{Barry Arrington

April 18, 2020

Intelligent Design}

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Trump’s plan calls for protecting vulnerable age cohorts while letting the less vulnerable get back to work. The two charts below demonstrate why opposition to this proposal borders on the insane.

The first chart is from CDC’s website showing COVID-19 deaths by age cohort as of April 17. The total is only 13,130, because CDC is behind in sorting this data. According to Worldmeter, total US deaths as of April 17 are 37,230. The second chart assumes the rates stay the same as the data is compiled (and I see no reason we should not assume that). Then I calculate total deaths as of today by age cohort.

One number should jump out at you. 3,315. That is the total number of deaths in the three months since the beginning of the pandemic among people under 55. In a country with a population of 327,167,434, that is .001%. That is 1 one thousandth of a percent.

Fact: The overwhelming majority of deaths are among the elderly.
Fact: The overwhelming majority of deaths are among those with serious preexisting conditions.
Fact: The government response is to treat young healthy people with practically zero risk of death the same as sick, elderly people.

The third fact needs to end, and that is the administration’s plan. You don’t shut the county down over a 1 one thousandth of a percent risk.

Comments

Barry “You seem to be suggesting that social distancing and shelter in place reduced the need for ventilators by 28,000 in just three weeks. “ This from stat news ( do your own diligence) I will post the link. Regarding the ad hoc use of social distancing,etc, to explain away the false predictions. “Even the predictions of daily deaths “have been highly inaccurate,” said statistician Sally Cripps of the University of Sydney, who led a team that examined IHME’s up-and-down projections. “It performs poorly even when it predicts the number of next-day deaths: The true number of next-day deaths has been outside the 95% intervals 70% of the time.” If the 95% calculation correctly reflects a model’s uncertainty, then textbook statistics say the true numbers can fall outside that range no more than 5% of the time.” https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/17/influential-covid-19-model-uses-flawed-methods-shouldnt-guide-policies-critics-say/ Agreed it’s painful to watch. Vividvividbleau_{April 18, 2020
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"hysterical overreaction"? In the midst of the worse outbreak of covid 19 in the world? TDSMatSpirit_{April 18, 2020
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I would say ignore Trump. This is an emergency, plan for the worst case.MatSpirit_{April 18, 2020
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Sev,
should we be walking around taking no effective precautions when we could be shedding virus, without even knowing, that could make others ill, even cause their deaths?
Aaaaand, here comes Sev with the straw man. Sev, who has argued for zero precautions for all demographic cohorts? Since you will not answer that question honestly, I will answer it for you. Exactly no one.Barry Arrington_{April 18, 2020
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Mat, are you still there? Who was right on March 27? Trump or Cuomo?Barry Arrington_{April 18, 2020
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Mat,
Well, when you look at it like that, he should clearly be kicked out of office.
This is a rhetorical device called "moving the goalposts." We are not talking about whether Coumo should be removed from office. We are talking about whether his hysterical overreaction took proper account of a cost/benefit analysis, something you say progressives are better at. Sure, change the subject if you want to. I suppose if I were as spectacularly wrong as you have been in this discussion, I would be eager to do that as well.Barry Arrington_{April 18, 2020
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I don't know. Maybe we should let all these people who want to open up the economy do their own thing. See which strategy works best. Survival of the fittest and all that.
Pastor dies from coronavirus — only weeks after he defiantly held packed church service

A Virginia pastor who defiantly held a packed church service on March 22 has passed away after being infected with the coronavirus, the New York Post reports. During the service, Bishop Gerald O. Glenn told his congregation at Richmond’s New Deliverance Evangelistic Church to stand, defiantly showing the world how many were willing to show up the despite stay-at-home orders meant to help curb the virus’ spread. “I firmly believe that God is larger than this dreaded virus. You can quote me on that,” he said, adding that “people are healed” in his church. Glenn vowed to keep his church open unless he’s “in jail or the hospital.” “I am essential,” he said, adding, “I’m a preacher — I talk to God!” But on Sunday, the church announced that he had died just a week after testing positive for the virus. “It is with heavy hearts that we announce the passing of our beloved Bishop Gerald O. Glenn, the Founder and Pastor of New Deliverance Evangelistic Church on Saturday, April 11, 2020 @ 9:00 PM,” the church wrote in a Facebook post.
I wonder how many believers here are still attending closely-packed open services. Personally, I would advise strongly against it but you must do your own thing. KF, since we are morally-governed, should we be walking around taking no effective precautions when we could be shedding virus, without even knowing, that could make others ill, even cause their deaths?Seversky_{April 18, 2020
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Oops, now I finally understand. In the peak of the covid crisis, with thousands dying and things getting worse every day, Coumo planned for the worst case. Well, when you look at it like that, he should clearly be kicked out of office. If he'd just follow the Tao of Trump, he'd know that there's always a pot of gold at the end of the rainbow and only fools plan for the worst case. I hear that he didn't destroy those ventilators, though. There are plenty of other hospitals that were glad to get them.MatSpirit_{April 18, 2020
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Mat,
Here’s an idea. Ignore Trump
Mat, I have a question for you. On March 27 Trump said in response to Cuomo's demand: “I don’t believe you need 40,000 or 30,000 ventilators." Who was right Mat? Actually, that's not the question. We all know the answer to that. This is the question: Should Trump have been ignored on March 27?Barry Arrington_{April 18, 2020
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Yeah, that's it. Open up the economy now, then watch it crash shut again when the virus reignites then maybe you might get to open it one more time before the election ... Here's an idea. Ignore Trump, follow Fauci. He actually knows what he's doing. Trump doesn't.MatSpirit_{April 18, 2020
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Mat,
Yes. That’s an example of what social distancing and shelter in place can do.
You seem to be suggesting that social distancing and shelter in place reduced the need for ventilators by 28,000 in just three weeks. Again, stop. It's painful to watch. Two things: (1) It is obvious that Cuomo's demand was a hysterical overreaction that took no account of cost/benefit. (2) Your comment is not cogent to begin with, because when he made the demand Cuomo assumed the additional ventilators would be necessary EVEN WITH social distancing and stay at home orders. You have to evaluate his demand based on whether it was reasonable then. It was clearly not.Barry Arrington_{April 18, 2020
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Barry: "How many sports stadiums are on the plains of Kansas Mat?" One in every high school. Putting a few hundred people shoulder to shoulder in bleachers should make for a very efficient virus transfer. It gets even better in basket ball season. No heavy coats. Barry: "Mat, you have lost sight of the number one rule of debating on the Internet: “The ability to type is not the same as the ability to say something coherent.” It's impossible to forget that rule when you read Uncommon Descent regularly.MatSpirit_{April 18, 2020
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Mat:
Only a very few of them will actually die.
Yes, Mat. That is kind of the point isn't it. If opening up the economy will result in only a few deaths, we should consider whether the cost of the alternative -- economic ruin (probably accompanied by even more deaths from other causes) -- is a greater. You just got through telling me that a progressive like you is better at cost/benefit analysis than I am. How can you be better at it? You don't even seem to understand why it is necessary.Barry Arrington_{April 18, 2020
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Barry: "Today: New York’s hospitalization rate is declining, and they never came remotely close to using all of the ventilators they already had." Yes. That's an example of what social distancing and shelter in place can do. And Trump thinks we can end that in starting in about a month. If he's smart, he'll wait till no more than a month before the election. Less time for Covid to blow up in his face that way.MatSpirit_{April 18, 2020
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Barry: "Stay-at-home orders on the plains of Kansas are stupid." MatSpirit: "Sure. Open up the restaurants, bars, churches, schools and sports stadiums." How many sports stadiums are on the plains of Kansas Mat? Mat, you have lost sight of the number one rule of debating on the Internet: "The ability to type is not the same as the ability to say something coherent." Stop. You are embarrassing yourself.Barry Arrington_{April 18, 2020
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Barry: "Stay-at-home orders on the plains of Kansas are stupid, and should be lifted immediately." Sure. Open up the restaurants, bars, churches, schools and sports stadiums. Let the long suffering people mingle and bathe in each other's breaths. So what if most of them get Covid? Only a very few of them will actually die. You're going for that Doc Oz prize again. Your dreams of healthy young Americans joyously going back to work are what we are going to do - when this virus is under control. Until then, it's a death sentence. Here's your problem if you're a conservative. The corona virus has demonstrated that it can go from one infected individual on Jan 1 to one million infected people on April 1. That's three months to explode. And the elections are in seven and a half months. And Trump thinks we can side-step social distancing without a vaccine and things won't blow up. TDS.MatSpirit_{April 18, 2020
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MatSpirit:
I would say that progressives are a lot better at evaluating the benefits and dangers of a proposed policy
Let's test that. On March 27, progressive New York governor Andrew Cuomo was running around like his hair was on fire calling for the production of 28,000 more ventilators for his state. Today: New York's hospitalization rate is declining, and they never came remotely close to using all of the ventilators they already had. So, Cuomo's proposed policy was: Do what ever is necessary to get me 28,000 ventilators STAT!" The cost of that policy: tens of millions The benefit of that policy: ZERO Yeah, Mat, I see your point.Barry Arrington_{April 18, 2020
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"progressives are a lot better at evaluating the benefits and dangers of a proposed policy" - Matspirit
LOL,, cue hasn't got a clue "Nancy 'let them eat chocolate' Antoinette" Pelosi to enter stage right,
GOP Mocks "Nancy Antoinette" Pelosi's Quarantine Stash Of Expensive Ice Cream In A Very Expensive Freezer - Tim Hains - April 16, 2020 As this clip from House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's interview on CBS's "Late, Late Show" began to circulate around the internet on Tuesday, the Trump campaign rapid response director Steve Guest pointed out that she is "eating $13 dollar a pint ice cream out of her $24,000 fridge." "The Paycheck Protection Program ran out of money this morning because Democrats, led by Nancy Pelosi, blocked the necessary $250 billion replenishment for the program that Congressional Republicans tried to deliver," the Republican National Committee said in a statement on Wednesday. "Now 'Nancy Antoinette' has to explain to America why she chose to show off her luxury refrigerators and $13-dollar a pint ice cream collection from her chateau in San Francisco instead of funding the Paycheck Protection Program which has saved millions of jobs all across the country." https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2020/04/16/nancy_pelosis_quarantine_stash_of_very_expensive_ice_cream_in_a_very_expensive_freezer.html
I wonder if the Democrats who were denied Paycheck Protection by Pelosi and company will remember who had their backs during this crisis and who didn't come November?bornagain77_{April 18, 2020
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I hear when the Army needs face masks or basic drugs, they have to order from China.
Yes, it is a damn shame that the strategic stockpile for such things was not replenished during Obama/Biden's eight years.Barry Arrington_{April 18, 2020
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Mat, So your solution is to elect as the next president an octogenarian political hack with incipient dementia who was first elected to public office in the Nixon administration? Sure, he has all the answers we need. Take COVID-19 for example. He called Trump's decision to shut down travel from China "hysterical and xenophobic." He would have continued travel to China. I suppose you support Biden on that call. To be sure, tens of thousands more would have died if Biden had had his way. But that is a small price to pay for avoiding hysteria and xenophobia, isn't it Mat?Barry Arrington_{April 18, 2020
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Of course, Trump still has that war production board - but he refuses to use it. He said he used it once, I believe to get GM to make ventilators, but it seems to have fallen by the wayside. I hear when the Army needs face masks or basic drugs, they have to order from China.MatSpirit_{April 18, 2020
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Barry, I would say that progressives are a lot better at evaluating the benefits and dangers of a proposed policy than a conservative who's suffering from Trump Derangement Syndrome. One of the symptoms of TDS is that sufferers can look at the last three years of White House Kaos and imagine that Trump is suddenly going to straighten up and fly right. Not that Trump is that unusual in conservative circles. We're still stuck in W's Iraq war, and then for a grand finale, he crashed the whole world's economy without even using viruses.MatSpirit_{April 18, 2020
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Yes, Mat a lot of people live in urban areas. So let's put our two ideas together. Stay-at-home orders on the plains of Kansas are stupid, and should be lifted immediately. Stay-at-home orders for people under sixty are stupid even in urban areas. In urban areas we need to protect the demographic cohorts most at risk (sick elderly people), and let those who are at minimal risk get to work opening the economy. Why is this so hard? The only explanation I can think of is that you welcome a depression to give your octogenarian dementia patient a chance at winning in November. BTW, here's the latest on your boy Biden when asked what he would do to respond to the virus: "Um, you know, there's a, uh, during World War II, uh, you know, where Roosevelt came up with a thing, uh, that, uh, you know, was totally different than a- than the- it's called, he called it, the, you know, the World War II, he had the war- the the War Production Board." See here to watch (if you can bear it).Barry Arrington_{April 18, 2020
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Barry, look at a population map. Way over half of all Americans live in urban areas. In fact, a little Googling shows that 269,114,845 Americans live in urban areas compared to 327,167,434 total. That's about 80 percent urban.MatSpirit_{April 18, 2020
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MatSpirit
What would you suggest?
I suggest that you learn how to evaluate the benefits you seek in light of the costs necessary to achieve those benefits. Don't feel bad. It's not just you. Progressives have a really hard time with that sort of calculation.Barry Arrington_{April 18, 2020
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Barry, I don't see a new number to replace that 327,167,434 with. What would you suggest?MatSpirit_{April 18, 2020
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MatSpirit @ 2 unwittingly makes my point. Not only does one-size-fits all not work in the context of age cohorts, it also doesn't work geographically. He may be right. High density areas like Manhattan need a different response than the plains of Kansas.Barry Arrington_{April 18, 2020
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MatSpirit, What am I thinking? Of course you are right. We should destroy the economy and throw tens of millions out of work and kill hundreds of thousands from the economic depression that is sure to follow if we can save even one person from dying from this virus. And not only that we need to elect as the next president Joe Biden, an octogenarian career political hack with incipient dementia who was first elected to public office in the Nixon administration. He has all the answers we need. Sure, he would have continued travel to China, because as he said at the time, Trump's decision to shut that down was "hysterical" and "xenophobic." Tens of thousands more would have died. But that is a small price to pay for avoiding hysteria and xenophobia.Barry Arrington_{April 18, 2020
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Apparently, in liberal thinking, only impressionable teen age girls who choose death for their unborn babies during the pandemic are capable of making rational choices about the health and welfare of others when it comes to the consequences of what their own actions may be on others.
Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) said abortion is a “life-sustaining” health care procedure that must remain available during the coronavirus pandemic. https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/apr/17/gretchen-whitmer-michigan-governor-declares-aborti/ World Health Organization: Abortion Is ‘Essential’ During Coronavirus Pandemic https://tennesseestar.com/2020/04/06/world-health-organization-abortion-is-essential-during-coronavirus-pandemic/
Abortion is, by far, the leading cause of death in the world and makes the deaths caused by corona virus pale in comparison
Abortions worldwide this year: (live update) 12,642,227 https://www.worldometers.info/abortions/ Coronavirus Deaths (live update): 159,033 https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ Abortion again tops worldwide causes of death in 2019 at more than 42 million The number of children killed in the womb is significantly more than half the total of all deaths worldwide. - Thu Jan 2, 2020 https://www.lifesitenews.com/news/abortion-again-tops-worldwide-causes-of-death-in-2019-at-more-than-42-million
bornagain77_{April 18, 2020
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Wow. Just wow. Looks like you've won the Dr. Oz award for sure. Not that there could possibly be anything wrong with your math because you are a former CPA and all, but why do you use the figure 327,167,434? That's the total population of the United States and the vast majority of the US population has never been exposed to Covid. They either live in dense urban areas that are practicing the kind of social isolation measure that Trump and the conservatives are trying to end, or they live so far out in the boonies they never see a stranger to catch anything from. Or they live in one of the states whose Republican governors have refused to order social distancing and they are just now watching their infection rates starting to soar. Why don't you do a recalc with more realistic figures?MatSpirit_{April 18, 2020
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