Uncommon Descent Serving The Intelligent Design Community

Why Not Accept the Fossil Record at Face Value Instead of Imposing a Theory on it?

Share
Facebook
Twitter
LinkedIn
Flipboard
Print
Email

In a comment to a prior post Johhnnyb makes the following excellent points (see here):

One thing which I think ID can contribute to any historical aspect of earth history is shaving off hypothetical creatures. While there are certainly many creatures which haven’t yet been found, and I’m sure many of these creatures include chimeras of existing features in existing creatures, there is no reason to believe that there must be creatures where none have been found or evidenced. Darwinism has a bad habit of perpetually adding dashed lines in-between creatures for where it expects to find relationships. Instead, ID says that, perhap we can just take the fossil record as we find it. Perhaps what we need to be doing is measuring, say, the average known time fossils go missing from the fossil record, and use that plus statistical completeness estimates to estimate the error bounds of the fossil record. Instead, Darwinists will substitute a narration of what they think happened in the past to substitute for 99% of earth history, rather than simply looking at what’s there.

 Here’s a simple example – extinction estimates. Darwinists will say that 99.99% of species that have ever lived have gone extinct. Well, that’s actually a bunch of B.S. There are roughly 250,000 species that have been identified in the fossil record, and well over 1,000,000 species that exist today. Taken at face value, even if every species in the fossil record has gone extinct (which they haven’t), that means that 80% of species that ever existed ARE STILL ALIVE.  That’s quite a stretch. So where do Darwinists get their number? By assuming that innumerable species existed in the transitional spaces. Why? Because they _must_ have existed there for their theory to be true.

 ID says that Darwinism is simply an unnecessary hypothesis. We should take the fossil record as it comes to us, measure its completeness on its own terms, and determine its limits as we can determine apart from Darwinism. After doing so, we might find certain features of the fossil record to be consistent with Darwinism, or we might not. The problem is that the Darwinists distort what they see to fit into their picture of Darwinism. There are also a set of Silurian trackways which were thought to be arthropods…why? Because it was thought that tetrapods hadn’t existed yet. Basically, Darwinism has been forcing the way in which we view the fossil record and earth history. When it is in conflict with the data, over and over again, the data gets modified to fit with Darwinism. ID makes a clean break with the Darwinistic picture, and would allow us to take the animal distributions within the fossil record much more on its own terms.

Comments
The fossil record: Greater than 95% of the fossil record consists of marine invertebrates. Yet in that vast majority we do not find evidence for Common Descent. Why isn't that evidence against the theory?Joseph
January 12, 2010
January
01
Jan
12
12
2010
05:57 AM
5
05
57
AM
PDT
Zachriel:
Sorry, you can’t just ignore the evidence for Common Descent.
Sorry, but you can't ignore the fact that the "evidence" for Common Descent can also be used to support Common Design and/ or convergence.Joseph
January 12, 2010
January
01
Jan
12
12
2010
05:55 AM
5
05
55
AM
PDT
Why not just let people know that planets revolve around the sun instead of telling them why and how they stay in their orbits? Why impose a theory on the rotation of the planets? Why not just let it speak for itself?Retroman
January 12, 2010
January
01
Jan
12
12
2010
03:54 AM
3
03
54
AM
PDT
To be successful means to reach the high grades and for that, people need to present the great quality medicine essays. But is this available to perform it without a support of the quality writing services? Yes, this is doable, but that can be easier to buy essay reffering to this good post online.HG22Lily
January 12, 2010
January
01
Jan
12
12
2010
01:40 AM
1
01
40
AM
PDT
ID makes a clean break with the Darwinistic picture, and would allow us to take the animal distributions within the fossil record much more on its own terms. Wouldn't that make an excellent ID research project?Cabal
January 12, 2010
January
01
Jan
12
12
2010
01:38 AM
1
01
38
AM
PDT
"You forgot to include that “good reason.”" It was included. You just missed it.jerry
January 11, 2010
January
01
Jan
11
11
2010
09:58 PM
9
09
58
PM
PDT
Seversky, I appreciate your term "Neo-Paleyism." While it is still not as polite as it could be, at least its not "intelligent design creationism." By the way, I'm sure you won't mind your tax dollars going into the research you proposed that Mr. Arrington should do. After all, we wouldn't want anybody to be put on an unfair playing field or anything.Collin
January 11, 2010
January
01
Jan
11
11
2010
06:29 PM
6
06
29
PM
PDT
Why Not Accept the Fossil Record at Face Value Instead of Imposing a Theory on it?
The face value is that there are a lot of fossilized bones from different layers of rock and from different parts of the world. On their own they tell us very little. But if we have a theory that the rocks in which they are found are of different ages, if we observe differences between the older and younger fossils, if we observe that animal morphology is plastic and can be shaped by environmental pressures, then we can construct a theory about how living things have changed and diversified over time. Data on its own is just that. When it can be fitted into the framework of an explanatory account, however, it can begin to make sense.
Here’s a simple example – extinction estimates. Darwinists will say that 99.99% of species that have ever lived have gone extinct. Well, that’s actually a bunch of B.S. There are roughly 250,000 species that have been identified in the fossil record, and well over 1,000,000 species that exist today.
I have seen figures of 1 million identified species and between 5 and 12 million yet to be discovered.
Taken at face value, even if every species in the fossil record has gone extinct (which they haven’t), that means that 80% of species that ever existed ARE STILL ALIVE. That’s quite a stretch.
It certainly is. There is evidence of at least five major extinction events in the geological record. If we look at just two of them, the Cretaceous-Tertiary extinction event 65 million years ago accounted for an estimated 75% of all species and the Permian-Triassic event wiped out around 96% of all marine species and 70% of all land species. If those estimates are even close, then it's the claim that 80% of all species that have ever existed are still alive that's "a bunch of B.S."
ID says that Darwinism is simply an unnecessary hypothesis.
And Darwinists say that neo-Paleyism isn't even a hypothesis because there is no way to test it.
Basically, Darwinism has been forcing the way in which we view the fossil record and earth history. When it is in conflict with the data, over and over again, the data gets modified to fit with Darwinism.
If you have a better explanation of the fossil evidence - as distinct from simply criticizing the evolutionary one - feel free to present it.
ID makes a clean break with the Darwinistic picture, and would allow us to take the animal distributions within the fossil record much more on its own terms.
By all means, do your own research. Free your mind of all assumptions, presuppositions or agendas, especially of design or religion. Remember you are supposed to be taking the fossil record at face value. Let nothing else distort your judgement.Seversky
January 11, 2010
January
01
Jan
11
11
2010
06:21 PM
6
06
21
PM
PDT
For example: A tacoma is a toyota, but not all toyotas are tacomas. Toyotas are automobiles, but not automobiles are toyotas. It is true that automobiles do not reproduce nor are they their own factories like life seems to be. And yet I think it is fascinating that automobiles follow selection pressures, have very familiar looking family trees showing simple growing to complex over time and diversity and "ecological" niches being filled with all variety of machines. Think about dump trucks and sports coups and back hoes. All of this diversity is due to a lot of intelligent agents experimenting, planning, designing etc. It makes me wonder if there weren't (aren't?) millions of designers of life too.Collin
January 11, 2010
January
01
Jan
11
11
2010
05:39 PM
5
05
39
PM
PDT
Zachriel said: "You are mistaken. Cars do not form a singular, objective nested hierarchy across most traits. They do not reproduce themselves. And we observe they are manufactured by a peculiar species of biped." I don't know what you mean by 'singular' and 'objective' but automobiles certainly do form nested hierarchies.Collin
January 11, 2010
January
01
Jan
11
11
2010
05:13 PM
5
05
13
PM
PDT
johnnyb: There are roughly 250,000 species that have been identified in the fossil record, and well over 1,000,000 species that exist today.
...
johnnyb: Again, what does this have to do with whether or not we should presume the existence of species that aren’t in the fossil record?
Because as the current ecosystem has a million species, and as the progression of ecosystems over hundreds of millions of years probably each had similar numbers of species, that would mean billions of species over the course of history.Zachriel
January 11, 2010
January
01
Jan
11
11
2010
04:05 PM
4
04
05
PM
PDT
Allen - First of all, on Behe's flagellum, he did not think that it was poofed into existence. Behe believes in evolution, and a naturalistic one at that. He believes that the information was encoded into the universe at the big bang. Interestingly, that is actually what seems to be implied by LeMaitre's description of the big bang, who described it as a "cosmic egg" (which would presume latent organization and structure, like an egg with a program to evolve to an adult). As to your estimates, the interesting thing is that biodiversity lags way behind biological disparity. Therefore, it may be quite doubtful to use modern biodiversity as a proxy for fossil biodiversity. E.O. Wilson, for instance, claims that current biodiversity far outpaces any historical biodiversity. In addition, just to point out, many of the species in the fossil record do still exist today. We seem to keep finding more. But, even if you assume your 100 species/genus estimate, and assuming they all went extinct, then your estimate still falls grossly short (multiple orders of magnitude) of the 99.99% number often used.johnnyb
January 11, 2010
January
01
Jan
11
11
2010
03:45 PM
3
03
45
PM
PDT
Zachriel - Again, what does this have to do with whether or not we should presume the existence of species that aren't in the fossil record?johnnyb
January 11, 2010
January
01
Jan
11
11
2010
03:30 PM
3
03
30
PM
PDT
Zachriel: There is not only a succession of species, but a succession of ecosystems. johnnyb: Whether or not Common descent is true has nothing to do with it.
There has been a succession of ecosystems, and the world of the dinosaurs was filled with all sorts of plants and animals, but different species than exist today.Zachriel
January 11, 2010
January
01
Jan
11
11
2010
02:57 PM
2
02
57
PM
PDT
Zachriel - Whether or not Common descent is true has nothing to do with it. I already wrote about that in the thread this came from, but may repost it on the home page later.johnnyb
January 11, 2010
January
01
Jan
11
11
2010
02:22 PM
2
02
22
PM
PDT
Heinrich - The difference between the two statements is that one is a statistical probability and the other is a biological necessity. On the basis of statistics, we probably haven't encountered everything. On the basis of biology, there is no necessary reason to assume a given unfound species existed.johnnyb
January 11, 2010
January
01
Jan
11
11
2010
02:18 PM
2
02
18
PM
PDT
{Oops. That last comment got sent inadvertently. Please ignore.}
jerry: From a sampling point of view if the fossil record finds most of what is known today in the fossil record, and it does, why should we expect it to have missed all these other speculated species.
It does? Can you provide the evidence for that assertion? Your argument also assumes the rate of fossilization and discovery is the same for the most ancient fossils as it is for more modern fossils. Is there support for this claim?Zachriel
January 11, 2010
January
01
Jan
11
11
2010
02:08 PM
2
02
08
PM
PDT
jerry: There is good reason to think that the fossil record represents most of what has actually existed.
You forgot to include that "good reason."Zachriel
January 11, 2010
January
01
Jan
11
11
2010
02:04 PM
2
02
04
PM
PDT
There is good reason to think that the fossil record represents most of what has actually existed. From a sampling point of view if the fossil record finds most of what is known today in the fossil record, and it does, why should we expect it to have missed all these other speculated species. The logical answer is that it probably didn't. Yes, there will be plenty of new fossil found in the future but it unlikely that most of the species that did exist were not fossilized. Again the reason is, that most of what is actually present today has been fossilized in the past. So if they were fossilized then species of the same time period should also have been fossilized.jerry
January 11, 2010
January
01
Jan
11
11
2010
02:01 PM
2
02
01
PM
PDT
While there are certainly many creatures which haven’t yet been found, and I’m sure many of these creatures include chimeras of existing features in existing creatures, there is no reason to believe that there must be creatures where none have been found or evidenced.
Huh? I understand this as saying "whilst there are certainly many creatures to be found, there is no reason to believe they existed" A strange use of faith. Can you explain this apparent contradiction?
Perhaps what we need to be doing is measuring, say, the average known time fossils go missing from the fossil record, and use that plus statistical completeness estimates to estimate the error bounds of the fossil record.
Two links to some simple estimates of the numbers of fossils to be discovered. I suspect there are more formal estimates too, based on accumulation curves for example.
Taken at face value, even if every species in the fossil record has gone extinct (which they haven’t), that means that 80% of species that ever existed ARE STILL ALIVE.
Must I mention fossilisation of tardigrades again? Soft body parts don't fossilise well, so we'll miss most of the biodiversity that was present (e.g. most insects and plants). The conditions for fossilisation also have to be right. These facts are independent of evolutionary theory, and suggest that there are many undiscovered species. I wonder - would ID be able to provide any counter-arguments to say that we've seen most extinct species (other than "God was just playing with the Pleistocene", of course).Heinrich
January 11, 2010
January
01
Jan
11
11
2010
01:35 PM
1
01
35
PM
PDT
{Copied to appropriate thread.}
bjohnnyb: Without Darwinian assumptions, 80% of creatures who ever existed might still be alive, but adding Darwinian assumptions 99.99% of them are extinct!
There is not only a succession of species, but a succession of ecosystems. Most species around today did not exist in the time of the dinosaurs. There were no Panthera or Ursidae. No Bovidae or Hominidae. But they did have ancestors! Then consider earlier eras! As always, we have to start with Common Descent and establish the overall historical pattern.Zachriel
January 11, 2010
January
01
Jan
11
11
2010
12:49 PM
12
12
49
PM
PDT
"There are roughly 250,000 species that have been identified in the fossil record..."
Actually, there are almost no species identified in the fossil record. This is because nearly all of the taxa currently cataloged in the fossil record are genera or higher taxa, not species. For example, virtually all fossil archosaurs (you may know them as "dinosaurs") are classified at the level of genera, not species. This means that the actual number of extinct species is unknown (and probably unknowable, at least at the level we currently know for extant species). However, since genera almost always consist of multiple species (indeed, some genera subsume hundreds or even thousands of species), what we do know is that our current estimates of the number of extinct species are quite low, perhaps as low as two to three orders of magnitude. Ergo, the number of actual species of fossil organisms can only be estimated, but is certainly two to three orders of magnitude greater than the number of identified fossil genera (and families, orders, classes, etc.). On the basis of this analysis, it is actually quite reasonable to estimate the number of extinct species as somewhere on the order of Here is the calculation: Given: 250,000 identified genera of fossil organisms Assuming each genus subsumes 10 species (an almost laughably low estimate, as almost no extant genus subsumes only one species), then the estimated number of extinct species is: 250,000 genera X 10 species/genus = 2,500,000 species By the same logic, assuming 100 species per genus: 250,000 genera X 100 species/genus = 25,000,000 species This analysis, of course, assumes that what we now recognize as genera in the fossil record are, in fact, genera, and not some higher taxon. If this were the case, then the estimates above are once again gross underestimates. As for the argument that paleontologists fill in gaps in the fossil record with "dotted lines", that's what any geneologist does when part of the family tree they are studying is missing. Would it make more sense for geneologists to assume that, rather than family lines being connected by "missing" ancestors, that instead known individuals simply "poofed" into existence (as Dr. Michael Behe has asserted the bacterial flagellum was)? Indeed, if inferring the existence of things not currently observable is illegitimate, then science as we know it today would be impossible. We cannot observe atoms, nor can we observe radio waves, individual photons, or the force of gravity. We infer their existence on the basis of evidence we can observe. Paleontology without inference would indeed be "stamp collecting"; that is, a huge collection of individual data, with no integrating theory whatsoever. Is that what you are advocating?Allen_MacNeill
January 11, 2010
January
01
Jan
11
11
2010
12:44 PM
12
12
44
PM
PDT
Collin: There is also no reasonable doubt in my mind that cars evolved via small mutations, leading to the complex and diverse kinds of vehicles we see today.
You are mistaken. Cars do not form a singular, objective nested hierarchy across most traits. They do not reproduce themselves. And we observe they are manufactured by a peculiar species of biped. The evidence strongly indicates design.Zachriel
January 11, 2010
January
01
Jan
11
11
2010
12:42 PM
12
12
42
PM
PDT
There are wider scopes of Common ancestory as put forth by other evolutionist instead of a single long line. Likening the record to a Forest of Trees. See: Doolittle, et al.DATCG
January 11, 2010
January
01
Jan
11
11
2010
12:27 PM
12
12
27
PM
PDT
I think that this is a good idea because it is one incremental step in building ID as a separate intellectual tradition. Zachriel, There is also no reasonable doubt in my mind that cars evolved via small mutations, leading to the complex and diverse kinds of vehicles we see today. You can even see punctuated equilibria as certain innovative structures explode onto the scene. This is obviously due to the common descent of cars, starting from sleds, going to wagons, then finally full blown cars. Even flight developed, starting with the Wright's aeroplane whose first hop was 12 seconds, to the space shuttle.Collin
January 11, 2010
January
01
Jan
11
11
2010
12:25 PM
12
12
25
PM
PDT
Sorry, you can't just ignore the evidence for Common Descent.
johnnyb: ... there is no reason to believe that there must be creatures where none have been found or evidenced.
Of course there are reasons. Time and again scientists have tested this hypothesis by finding intermediate species. They didn't just stumble across Tiktaalik in their backyards. There is no reasonable scientific doubt that there has been a succession of ecosystems over the eons.Zachriel
January 11, 2010
January
01
Jan
11
11
2010
10:15 AM
10
10
15
AM
PDT
1 2 3 4

Leave a Reply