Human evolution Intelligent Design

Your chances of living to be over 100

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Doubtless, improved by modern medicine. We sometimes do stories on human longevity:

Using a Bayesian approach to estimate probability, the UW team created projections for the maximum reported age at death in all 13 countries from 2020 through 2100.

Among their findings:

Researchers estimated near 100% probability that the current record of maximum reported age at death — Calment’s 122 years, 164 days — will be broken;

The probability remains strong of a person living longer, to 124 years old (99% probability) and even to 127 years old (68% probability);

An even longer lifespan is possible but much less likely, with a 13% probability of someone living to age 130;

It is “extremely unlikely” that someone would live to 135 in this century. As it is, supercentenarians are outliers, and the likelihood of breaking the current age record increases only if the number of supercentenarians grows significantly. With a continually expanding global population, that’s not impossible, researchers say.

People who achieve extreme longevity are still rare enough that they represent a select population, Raftery said. Even with population growth and advances in health care, there is a flattening of the mortality rate after a certain age. In other words, someone who lives to be 110 has about the same probability of living another year as, say, someone who lives to 114, which is about one-half.

“It doesn’t matter how old they are, once they reach 110, they still die at the same rate,” Raftery said. “They’ve gotten past all the various things life throws at you, such as disease. They die for reasons that are somewhat independent of what affects younger people.

“This is a very select group of very robust people.”

University of Washington, “How long can a person live? The 21st century may see a record-breaker” at ScienceDaily (July 1, 2021) The paper is open access.

Note: When pundits carry on about the alleged “population bomb,” has it occurred to any of them that in many parts of the world, people simply live longer now than we used to? We didn’t do anything except stay alive. So there are more of us around at any given time. Maybe one solution to the “crisis” is fewer pundits freaking out…

See also some of our other longevity stories:

Why Do Humans Live To Be Old When Most Animals Don’t? Pop Psychology Weighs In

Does Human Mortality Really Slow Down Between 105 Yrs And 110 Years?

and

How did we evolve to live longer?

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