Dr Zelenko strikes yet again (at 911 patients and counting . . . )

_{kairosfocus

April 3, 2020

Defending our Civilization, Medicine, rhetoric}

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Here is a panel discussion for a rapidly organised conference:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-Oq6IOP1sd8

We need to hear this, where 44 million donated tablets are already in hand. END

Comments

@57 Bob O'H
Why are people around here so quick to tell me what I think?
It's an evolutive mechanism, Bob O'H. Always an evolutive mechanism. Evolution explains everything and anything. :)Truthfreedom_{April 7, 2020
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Bob, “Why are people around here so quick to tell me what I think? No, I don’t despise anecdotal evidence. In fact, a lot of my work at the moment is directed towards trying to use anecdotal evidence effectively (but in a very different context).” Bob I apologize that was not my intention, nor was I in anyway trying to tell you what you think. Vividvividbleau_{April 7, 2020
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My understanding is that zinc is an essential nutrient in cells and that there are already efficient inbuilt transport mechanisms to supply it. There is also good experimental evidence that taking zinc supplements can reduce the severity of cold symptoms. There is also evidence that too much zinc can be detrimental to health. As for Dr Zelenko's claims, I would hope they are right but as Snopes says:
A more detailed explainer of the potential role of anti-malarial drugs like hydroxychloroquine against the COVID-19 coronavirus disease, with or without antibiotics, can be found here. Zelenko’s claims, however, rest solely on taking him at his word: He has published no data, described no study design, and reported no analysis.

As has been noted elsewhere, combining hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin can cause serious problems for people with certain heart conditions. Though zinc appears to be an important factor in several immune functions, a potential mechanism for how it might work against viral infections is not well-understood.
If people want to take hydrochloroquine and azithromycin and/or zinc supplements at their own risk, I would not stop them. But they should understand that the evidence for the efficacy of such a treatment regime is weak at this time. Moreover, I would argue that public health authorities have a responsibility to ensure that adequate supplies of chloroquine are available for those suffering from disorders against which it has been shown to be effective.Seversky_{April 7, 2020
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But I understand why evos wouldn’t grasp that science.
Bob O'H is a strong supporter of ID. He is also a strong supporter of Hydroxychloroquine and zinc. By only making specious nitpicking objections he is actually supporting both propositions. If he was against both, he would be making substantive objections with alternatives. But he doesn't. Bob is like the dog barking in the night. He never barks. So be glad that Bob comments here. He validates most of the positions.jerry_{April 7, 2020
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The science says that chloroquine, an ionophore, coupled with zinc, will stop the virus from replicating. But I understand why evos wouldn't grasp that science.ET_{April 7, 2020
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Truthfreedom @ 48 - I'm dismissing the evidence as weak. Raoult's first study was suggestive, but problematic. There's a small Chinese study that suggests it helps in mild cases. There are also negative studies, but again they are small. Taken as a whole, these studies don't say anything definitive: they provide some evidence, but it is weak. Hence we need stronger evidence.Bob O'H_{April 7, 2020
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Vividbleau -
My common sense tells me that we do not have verification through clinical trials that HQ is effective, we do have anecdotal evidence that it might be. Now as a scientist you despise anecdotal evidence which as a scientist you should.
Why are people around here so quick to tell me what I think? No, I don't despise anecdotal evidence. In fact, a lot of my work at the moment is directed towards trying to use anecdotal evidence effectively (but in a very different context).
But anecdotal evidence is evidence, non scientific evidence non the less. What does not pass my common sense test is that if my personal Doctor, who knows my health risk, and I don’t have any health risk in taking HQ and prescribes it why not give it a try?
If you, as an individual, want to take HCQ, then I'm not going to try to stop you, as long as you know what the evidence is - there are side effects, and any evidence for it working is poor (although the evidence for it not working is also not strong). I'd also hope you'd make sure you weren't taking the medicine away from someone who needs it, and for whom it is effective.Bob O'H_{April 7, 2020
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Bob, In fact is was Jan 21 “not a major threat to the US not something the citizens of US should be worried about” A few days later after Wuhan lockdown he said that although you may want to reconsider going to Wuhan going to the Super Bowl was fine, Feb 17 ,people ought to worry more about the clear and present danger to this years annual flue the danger to this country to the Corona Virus was minuscule. Vividvividbleau_{April 7, 2020
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Bob I think it was sometime in January watched him on TV . Vividvividbleau_{April 7, 2020
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Vividbleau -
Fauci is an expert and I respect and listen to what he has to say but experts can be wrong, after all he was telling us that we did not have to worry about the virus, now with more information he wants to lock down the country.
When did Fauci say the virus was nothing to worry about?Bob O'H_{April 7, 2020
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@42 Bob O'H
precisely. We don’t know. So we can’t know how effecting the treatment is, can we? This is basic science – how to design an experiment to test a hypothesis. It’s a shame not everyone understands it.
There would be no science without logic. And what I do not understand is that you are dismissing the studies but then saying that clinical trials are 'worth a shot'. You do not trust the data collected but think CQ and HCQ may be helpful?Truthfreedom_{April 6, 2020
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@46 Seversky
As a further cautionary note, there is this recent study in mice which found that chloroquine in combination with the diabetes drug, metformin was fatally toxic in 30-40% of cases.
This is a pre-print (not peer-reviewed) and done in mice.
While our observations in mice may not translate to toxicity in humans,

Readers should therefore be aware that articles on bioRxiv have not been finalized by authors, might contain errors, and report information that has not yet been accepted or endorsed in any way by the scientific or medical community.
Truthfreedom_{April 6, 2020
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As a further cautionary note, there is this recent study in mice which found that chloroquine in combination with the diabetes drug, metformin was fatally toxic in 30-40% of cases.Seversky_{April 6, 2020
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Barry Whatever happened to “ the right to choose” mantra, does that only apply if you want to kill a baby? Vividvividbleau_{April 6, 2020
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Vivid
I just don’t see what the fuss is all about.
Oh that's easy. The fuss is grounded in Trump Derangement Syndrome. Of one thing we can be practically certain. If Obama were president and said we should give HQ a go, all of the progressives putting up a fuss would instead be falling all over themselves spreading the word about the efficacy of HQ.Barry Arrington_{April 6, 2020
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Bob “It’s a shame not everyone understands it.” Bob I know your coming from a good place and you are right that we have no scientific evidence as of yet whether HQ is effective or not until we have controlled studies. My take is that you are involved in scientific endeavors and you recognize the dangers in methods that have not gone through the necessary trials so your coming from a good place. You would like nothing more than a treatment to be proved efficacious but until it is, as a scientist , we must wait. Got it. We all come from different places and different experiences,in my business I have learned not to trust experts just because they are experts, sometimes basic common sense just doesn’t add up and I have learned if it doesn’t pass my common sense then I go my own way. Case in point a few weeks ago we were told by the experts not to wear masks and upon hearing this I turned to my wife and said that makes no sense. Why? Because how can a mask not give more protection than a non mask if we followed basic hygienic protocols. Now the experts are telling us to wear masks,. Fauci is an expert and I respect and listen to what he has to say but experts can be wrong, after all he was telling us that we did not have to worry about the virus, now with more information he wants to lock down the country. This is not a knock on Fauci or any medical experts at the time he said don’t worry he did not have the information and no one should be criticized for acting upon the information at hand, When more information came in he changed his mind which is what good scientists do. My common sense tells me that we do not have verification through clinical trials that HQ is effective, we do have anecdotal evidence that it might be. Now as a scientist you despise anecdotal evidence which as a scientist you should. But anecdotal evidence is evidence, non scientific evidence non the less. What does not pass my common sense test is that if my personal Doctor, who knows my health risk, and I don’t have any health risk in taking HQ and prescribes it why not give it a try? I just don’t see what the fuss is all about. Vividvividbleau_{April 6, 2020
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Truthfreedon @ 37 - precisely. We don't know. So we can't know how effecting the treatment is, can we? This is basic science - how to design an experiment to test a hypothesis. It's a shame not everyone understands it.Bob O'H_{April 6, 2020
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Interesting report, I am not endorsing the accuracy of this report but IF true some may find it of interest This is was retweeted by Brit Hume The IHME model as of April 5th predicts that NY State will need 69k beds with only 16.5 k actually needed so far. The projection is for 12.3 k ICU beds actual 4.3k, overall bed count rose less than 600 statewide, less than 4%. It should be noted that my understanding the model has been tracking well as to the death count. For Alabama they have 34 deaths but are predicted to have 300 deaths this week,. In Alabama 231 hospitalized but model says they are going to need almost 30 k. Vividvividbleau_{April 6, 2020
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The culture of ambulance-chasing litigation also has to be addressed.
This is an issue in the United States. We sell a device that would be important in emergency room medicine or in the ICU and we have had hundreds of requests for it. But we have to refuse because it would require about a million dollars to run a study to have the FDA clear it. The first false negative and the lawyers would be lined up for the chance to sue without this clearance. The same device had no trouble getting a CE approval and thus acceptance in about any country outside of the US and Canada.jerry_{April 6, 2020
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BO'H: Again, we know the progress of cases. The consistent wipeout of the virus in about five days (well beyond the classic Placebo 38%) is significant and shows something that supports the parallel in vivo study (and similar studies going back to 15 years ago. Namely that once HCQ is present in tissue in a dosage-plausible quantity, it has broad base antiviral effects. The taking the dosage and seeing the results exist in an established context of known antiviral effects. That is not a proof on self evident axioms, but no inductive case can rise to that certainty; we have a best explanation consistent with the principle of lawlike regularity tied to core characteristics of entities in the world; including a cluster of plausible mechanisms, several of which may well be working in parallel . . . an advantage. It is warrant to a degree that justifies action in a context where this is essentially the best we are going to get in an urgent situation, with a lot of lives and potential global chaos on the line. We are looking at least worst options in the face of the full equivalent of a world war. Yes, continue investigations, but it is clearly warranted for the FDA to have stepped up the degree of approval after the cumulative impact of the various studies. The time for imagining that skepticism is a virtue has long passed, we need balanced prudence in the face of serious threats. And this is clearly a prescription drug, where I again repeat, pharmacology is the study of poisons in small doses. KFkairosfocus_{April 6, 2020
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@34 Kairosfocus:
The culture of ambulance-chasing litigation also has to be addressed.
Another sign of how pathetic our society has become.Truthfreedom_{April 6, 2020
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@36 Bob O'H
Of those 78 of 80 cases from France, how many would have recovered without HCQ treatment?
This a very weird question. How could Kairosfocus (or any person by the way) know it?Truthfreedom_{April 6, 2020
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kf - seriously, there are no good high quality studies showing that HCQ is effective as a treatment for Corvid-19. It's not as if we don't know how to conduct them, and indeed they are being conducted. You don't think it might just be possible that doctors and health care professionals like Dr. Fauci actually know a lot more about this than you do? That they might actually be aware of both the risks and benefits of giving out unproven medicines? Of those 78 of 80 cases from France, how many would have recovered without HCQ treatment?Bob O'H_{April 6, 2020
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I find it interesting that Bob O’H has not listened to the podcast which this OP is about. If he has watched it, he has never commented on its substance. It is mainly audio but the screen changes periodically through the podcast to present additional information.jerry_{April 6, 2020
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PPPS: The culture of ambulance-chasing litigation also has to be addressed.kairosfocus_{April 6, 2020
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PPS: Did you really read that first abstract? Before the reference to side effects you highlighted, this was said:
for TTCR, the body temperature recovery time and the cough remission time were significantly shortened in the HCQ treatment group. Besides, a larger proportion of patients with improved pneumonia in the HCQ treatment group (80.6%, 25 of 32) compared with the control group (54.8%, 17 of 32). Notably, all 4 patients progressed to severe illness that occurred in the control group. However, there were 2 patients with mild adverse reactions in the HCQ treatment group. Significance: Among patients with COVID-19, the use of HCQ could significantly shorten TTCR and promote the absorption of pneumonia.
kairosfocus_{April 6, 2020
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BO'H: Sorry, it is instead manifestly unethical to ignore demonstration of effectiveness on significant numbers of patients in a context where playing at control group studies puts up to ~ 10% of vulnerable patient groups at death's door: knowingly treating a good fraction of people at death's door with sugar pills in teeth of considerable evidence that a cost-effective cocktail of drugs will stop the viral and complications cascade within a week. Where, the further indication is, hit it as early as possible, to avert the fatal cascade on average at days 9 - 11. We are not facing peacetime, normal world medicine but a global plague that literally can kill millions in a few months. With significant risk of overwhelming facilities leading to huge spikes in numbers dying, as Italy, China etc show. Yes, in the aftermath of SARS1, we should have followed up and certified HCQ etc as broad spectrum antivirals. We didn't, that is a lesson to be fully drawn later. For now, we must use prudence and duly weigh the balance of strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats. With urgency we must build on strength, address threats, exploit opportunities, compensate for then as possible correct weaknesses. That means here, yes we explore onward but we go with what is in our hands now. Which is precisely what is actually happening once France took the decision to approve HCQ on precisely the studies you dismiss, studies that showed startling effectiveness in 78 of 80 cases and that the drug has relevant action on plausible concentrations in the body achievable on reasonable doses. KF PS: Remember, too, that the evidence is that synergy is key. What is needed is a cocktail, with Z-pac or the like and Zn supplements.kairosfocus_{April 6, 2020
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So far the cure is batting 100% and you are batting 0%, US baseball terms.
Yes, if you ignore all those times the cure swung and missed (see my previous comment for links).Bob O'H_{April 6, 2020
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kf @ 27 - Raoult's trials are almost useless: the first was a small unrandomised study, so at est says that it's worth following up. The second study didn't have a control group, so is useless to judge efficacy. The Chinese studies are also small - one with ~60 patients suggests an effect in patients with mild symptoms (as well as "2 patients with mild adverse reactions in the HCQ treatment group", so there are observable side effects even in the short term). There's also this study with 30 patients that doesn't show an effect. And for completeness there's this French paper that also doesn't show any effect, but with only 11 patients it can probably be ignored. Overall, the evidence for effectiveness is mixed and not of high quality (small sample sizes etc.). It's certainly not a miracle cure, but it's probably worth testing in a full trial.Bob O'H_{April 6, 2020
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Only one of the drugs used in the treatment doesn’t have a long history of treatment with little or no side effects.”
And guess which drug that is. To which I wrote
It is on the World Health Organization’s List of Essential Medicines, the safest and most effective medicines needed in a health system.
Again I suggest you listen to and watch the relevant videos. You might then be able to make a relevant comment. So far the cure is batting 100% and you are batting 0%, US baseball terms. Again a $20 bill will cure you of the virus.jerry_{April 5, 2020
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