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Hydrochloroquine on the march, as this wave of Covid-19 peaks

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Prof Raoult’s web site hosts an interesting map, under the title, “Pays où l’hydroxychloroquine est recommandée”:

India, of course, has the further approval for prophylaxis.

That’s significant, as talk on vaccines tends to point to 12 – 18 months and double-blind, placebo controlled tests in progress or about to start in the US look likely to take more than a year.

Meanwhile, OWID tracks how time to double to current number of deaths — probably the best statistic — is continuing to stretch out:

(Notice, the S-curves and driving impulses.)

Likewise, we can see the daily cases clearly peaking (for THIS wave . . . notice, Wave 2 for China and even an uptick to a Wave 3):

This is then reflected in the cumulative cases curves:

Oddly, Japan and Singapore seem to be tracking on a double in ten days exponential growth path with superposed wobbling, i.e. sub-waves, so they have apparently flattened rather than eliminated the curve.

The issue now switches to the race between costs and damage due to the disease vs costs and damage due to economic and social impacts of attempted suppressive measures. Recall, recessions and depressions also cost lives.

We need to draw lessons and prepare for the obvious emergent age of pandemics. END

26 Replies to “Hydrochloroquine on the march, as this wave of Covid-19 peaks

  1. 1
    kairosfocus says:

    Hydrochloroquine on the march, as this wave of Covid-19 peaks . . . China seems to be entering Wave 3 in a pattern of diminishing waves as it eases lockdown.

  2. 2
    kairosfocus says:

    BTW, what is our cumulative total for Flu season deaths?

  3. 3
    jawa says:

    KF,
    Very informative post, as usual. Thanks!

  4. 4
    Bob O'H says:

    For the US, the CDC has estimated 24-62 thousand deaths. So Covid-19 is already at the lower end of that.

  5. 5
    kairosfocus says:

    BO’H: Thanks for US figures [or, at least, range], I want the global ones too. KF

  6. 6
    Bob O'H says:

    According to this paper, it’s about 389?000 (uncertainty range 294?000-518?000) but they point out that there are different estimates. So it’s about a third of that at the moment.

  7. 7
    Ed George says:

    As well, most countries amd flu and pneumonia int the same category, so the numbers that can be linked to complications from the flu may be lower.

  8. 8
    bornagain77 says:

    Supposed ‘experts’ being wrong should be familiar to UD regulars:

    Ingraham: The coronavirus crisis is teaching us a lot about the so-called experts
    https://video.foxnews.com/v/6149181785001?fbclid=IwAR16eqcjdHNTulAb-T8CcD_CO0iYQUCBeFWPP1P84MSXir878NrwZVVOYJQ#sp=show-clips

  9. 9
    ET says:

    The models did not include shelter in place. Would you be happy if the models were right because we didn’t? Would anyone?

    The numbers are way down because positive actions were taken.

  10. 10
    kairosfocus says:

    ET, documentation? KF

  11. 11
    ET says:

    I would think that it goes without saying. Would you like to go back in time, not shelter in place and run the scenario?

    https://sfist.com/2020/03/29/sunday-links-sheltering-in-place-seems-to-be-working/

    California, with 40 million people, has a very low number of deaths due to covid 19

  12. 12
    bornagain77 says:

    ET, I’m not saying that we should not have sheltered in place. I’m saying that the experts were wrong again. (Which, i.e. ‘experts being wrong’, is pretty much a running theme on UD).

    Moreover, Shelter in place was built into the original model,

    “they factored social distancing in the model, and the numbers went down to 200,000 from 2.2 million.”,,,
    to 60,415 early Wednesday morning. Wednesday’s dramatic reverse in the model’s projection of U.S. deaths was made without a press release
    https://www.rushlimbaugh.com/daily/2020/04/08/death-model-reduced-90-since-we-heard-2-2-million/

    200,000 to 60,000??? Being off by a factor of 3? I’d call that a pretty big mistake from the supposed leading experts in the world. As Laura Ingraham pointed out in the video that I referenced at post 8, her ‘non-expert’ medical panel could tell that the numbers were inflated.

  13. 13
    rhampton7 says:

    In all, 1,033 Swedes have died from Covid-19, official figures showed on Tuesday. Though still well below fatality rates in Italy and the U.K., it’s far worse than in any of the Nordic countries with which Sweden usually compares itself. The Swedish mortality rate is almost 10 times higher than in Finland, more than four times higher than in Norway, and twice Denmark’s.

    Lofven’s hands-off model has drawn criticism from across the globe, including from U.S. President Donald Trump. But in Sweden, government agencies and policy makers say their approach is built on the idea that voluntary social distancing measures are most effective, rather than a total lockdown. They argue the Swedish model is more sustainable when it comes to fighting a lasting pandemic.

    Like elsewhere, most of Sweden’s Covid-19 deaths have hit the elderly–a demographic Lofven has admitted they should have done more to protect.

  14. 14
    ET says:

    bornagain77- It depends on when they said those deaths would occur. It ain’t over yet and people are dying every day. Don’t spike the football on the 20 yard line.

  15. 15
    ET says:

    RE: Sweden. There are many people complaining about our governments heavy hand by citing Sweden. I doubt they know what is really happening there.

  16. 16
    rhampton7 says:

    WSJ reports

    Newly published figures show deaths linked to the new coronavirus in the U.K. have far exceeded preliminary estimates, adding to a growing body of evidence across Europe that closely watched daily death tallies don’t reveal the virus’s true toll.

    Behind the discrepancy are lags in recording some deaths that can stretch to a week or more, as well as deaths in nursing homes and other non-hospital settings that aren’t normally captured by rapid-fire estimates used to track the pandemic.

    Similar issues have complicated efforts to get an accurate read in France, Spain and Italy. The fog risks clouding tricky judgments facing officials about when the outbreak has peaked and restrictions on work and travel can be eased, while also fueling some suspicion that governments are lowballing the death count.

  17. 17
    rhampton7 says:

    After at least four of its workers tested positive for the coronavirus, the Henkel plant in Bowling Green, KY has temporarily suspended its operations.

    Henkel is a global leader in laundry, home care, beauty care and adhesives and is the largest operation in the South Central Kentucky Industrial Park.

  18. 18
    ET says:

    Does UD really need RHampton7 to be its news feed?

  19. 19
    kairosfocus says:

    RH7, I thought Henkel was just glues! (I guess you know things I do from that . . . ) KF

  20. 20
    kairosfocus says:

    RH7, the issue is, find a proxy with enough signal in it to track trends. OWID has enough caveats to give any statistician fits. My thought is, daily deaths are probably the best trend indicator, never mind likely 2 – 3 week lag on infection rates. KF

  21. 21
    rhampton7 says:

    Almost half the people hospitalized because of COVID-19 have blood or protein in their urine, indicating early damage to their kidneys, said Alan Kliger, a Yale University School of Medicine nephrologist who co-chairs a task force assisting dialysis patients who have COVID-19.

    Even more alarming, he added, is early data that show 14% to 30% of intensive-care patients in New York and Wuhan, China — birthplace of the pandemic — have lost kidney function and require dialysis, or its in-hospital cousin, continuous renal replacement therapy. New York intensive care units are treating so much kidney failure, he said, they need more personnel who can perform dialysis and have issued an urgent call for volunteers from other parts of the country. They also are running dangerously short of the sterile fluids used to deliver that therapy, he said.

    But in medicine, logical inferences often do not prove true when research is conducted. Everyone interviewed for this story stressed that with the pandemic still raging, they are speculating with much less data than is normally needed to reach solid clinical conclusions.

    Many other possible causes for organ and tissue damage must be investigated, they said, including respiratory distress, the medications patients received, high fever, the stress of hospitalization in an ICU and the now well-described impact of cytokine storms.

  22. 22
    kairosfocus says:

    RH7, yes, they are picking up widespread damage including to blood and organs. That builds up towards a crisis, and even if one survives, lingering damage is there. KF

  23. 23
    rhampton7 says:

    The death toll in Iran from the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic is likely nearly double the officially reported figures, due to undercounting and because not everyone with breathing problems has been tested for the virus, a parliament report said.

    The 46-page report by Iran’s parliament research center, published online, carries the weight of being written by nonpartisan experts within the country.

    Iranian health officials offered no comment on the report, released on Tuesday, which represents the highest-level charge yet from within the country of its figures being questionable, something long suspected by international experts.

    Iran on Wednesday put the death toll at 4,777, out of 76,389 confirmed cases of the virus — still making it the Middle East’s worst outbreak by far.

  24. 24
    ET says:

    Covid-19 binds to ACE2. Guess where ACE2 is? Lung, heart, arterial and kidney cells. That means it isn’t so alarming that there would be blood or protein in the urine. It should have been predicted.

  25. 25
    kairosfocus says:

    ET, the issue is, organ damage leading to failure or reduced capability. The named organs are all vital. KF

  26. 26
    ET says:

    Yes, they are all vital. They are also all on the covid-19 hit list. That is all I am saying. It should have been predicted that it isn’t only a respiratory thing and that other vital parts can be infected.

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