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At Science Daily: Military cannot rely on AI for strategy or judgment, study suggests

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Using artificial intelligence (AI) for warfare has been the promise of science fiction and politicians for years, but new research argues only so much can be automated and shows the value of human judgment.

“All of the hard problems in AI really are judgment and data problems, and the interesting thing about that is when you start thinking about war, the hard problems are strategy and uncertainty, or what is well known as the fog of war,” said Jon Lindsay, an associate professor in the School of Cybersecurity & Privacy and the Sam Nunn School of International Affairs. “You need human sense-making and to make moral, ethical, and intellectual decisions in an incredibly confusing, fraught, scary situation.”

AI decision-making is based on four key components: data about a situation, interpretation of those data (or prediction), determining the best way to act in line with goals and values (or judgment), and action. Machine learning advancements have made predictions easier, which makes data and judgment even more valuable. Although AI can automate everything from commerce to transit, judgment is where humans must intervene, Lindsay and University of Toronto Professor Avi Goldfarb wrote in the paper, “Prediction and Judgment: Why Artificial Intelligence Increases the Importance of Humans in War,” published in International Security.

Many policy makers assume human soldiers could be replaced with automated systems, ideally making militaries less dependent on human labor and more effective on the battlefield. This is called the substitution theory of AI, but Lindsay and Goldfarb state that AI should not be seen as a substitute, but rather a complement to existing human strategy.

“Machines are good at prediction, but they depend on data and judgment, and the most difficult problems in war are information and strategy,” he said. “The conditions that make AI work in commerce are the conditions that are hardest to meet in a military environment because of its unpredictability.”

“All the excitement and the fear are about killer robots and lethal vehicles, but the worst case for military AI in practice is going to be the classically militaristic problems where you’re really dependent on creativity and interpretation,” Lindsay said.

“If AI is automating prediction, that’s making judgment and data really important,” Lindsay said. “We’ve already automated a lot of military action with mechanized forces and precision weapons, then we automated data collection with intelligence satellites and sensors, and now we’re automating prediction with AI. So, when are we going to automate judgment, or are there components of judgment cannot be automated?”

Until then, though, tactical and strategic decision making by humans continues to be the most important aspect of warfare.

Science Daily

Creativity, interpretation, strategy, value judgments, morality and ethics–these are all the purview of humans, especially humans who acknowledge God as the foundation of a moral society.

Comments
Jerry
I am always suspect of things like this.
It's good to evaluate carefully as long as it does not prevent you from researching and taking an interest in what is out there.
I am sure there is a website that keeps track of such experiences. Are they all Christian? Or does each religion have their own set of examples?
The internet is a big place - there's a lot to find. In my own religious tradition, there are thousands of examples. You could try "Catholic mysticism" or Catholic saints. The life of St. Pio of Pietrelcina is a good starting point. St. Teresa of Avila is a doctor of the Church and had direct communication with God. Catholic Encyclopedia on Prophecy https://www.newadvent.org/cathen/12473a.htm Catholic Encyclopedia on Mysticism https://www.newadvent.org/cathen/10663b.htm Mystical Theology https://www.newadvent.org/cathen/14621a.htmSilver Asiatic
June 24, 2022
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Military automation, in general, is not something new, but today, one way or another, there is always a person behind it. For successful use, it is necessary to find a balance of trust and distrust "arranged, appropriate, and in one direction can harm people. In the case of using a summer collection, the involvement of a person is simply necessary.Fluix
June 24, 2022
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Jerry at 68, I can assure you that God knows who you are.relatd
June 24, 2022
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Jon Voight Says a Divine Encounter Got His Life Back on Track
I am always suspect of things like this. It is not that it isn't real for the person and could definitely be divinely inspired but I have not heard of anyone having an actual conversation or hearing voices telling them some basic truths. Except in some famous religious experiences. Constatine and Mohammed both claim to have seen signs and in Mohammed's case given a text which he memorized and became the Quran. I have a neighbor down the street who was theoretically dying from some sort of disease and started praying and went back to church and a few months later was cured. I know personally of 3-4 other similar episodes. So I don't doubt something is happening. But none of them said they had a direct communication from God other than their cure. There were no physical signs or voices. There was definitely feelings of elation. I think a lot of people become "redpilled" in the sense that they have a new understanding of the world after scrutinizing what is really happening. This dramatically changed their way of life. Despite being small, ID has this potential since it makes atheism look foolish. Would I classify John Voight's experience as such? I don't know. I am sure there is a website that keeps track of such experiences. Are they all Christian? Or does each religion have their own set of examples?jerry
June 24, 2022
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AC
None of them can reach the level of communication skills god has. Obviously, since god has perfect communication skills.
We have to be willing to hear what God has to say - that's the problem. Plus, we might even hear it but misinterpret it or misunderstand it. God knows how to communicate perfectly but he can't force our will to fully accept what He has to say. Plus, it is easier to turn-off God's voice. Prophets give us the unvarnished message and repeat it, so we don't distort what we don't want to hear. Very few of us want to hear where we have gone wrong and where we need to improve.Silver Asiatic
June 24, 2022
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Jerry
I have never heard of any discussed anywhere except in a few very religious examples and they are not recent or well documented.
'God is Real, He Knows Us': Actor Jon Voight Says a Divine Encounter Got His Life Back on Track https://www1.cbn.com/cbnnews/entertainment/2021/july/god-is-real-he-knows-us-actor-jon-voight-says-a-divine-encounter-got-his-life-back-on-trackSilver Asiatic
June 24, 2022
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@kairosfocus
AC, strawman, it remains. You imply that God cannot get people who are of the level of a good clerk much less one to partner with, something many authors routinely do.
If I would have implied such a thing I would be wrong. Being wrong is not a strawman. Reality is you are wrong that I imply such a thing. I know a lot of good clerks, people I routinely work with. Friends I trust. None of them can reach the level of communication skills god has. Obviously, since god has perfect communication skills.
a term of insubstantial dismissal
Now I'm not a native English speaker, but really? From the horses mouth: https://www.thecatholictelegraph.com/a-question-of-faith-what-is-dogma-it-comes-from-authority/57035AndyClue
June 24, 2022
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Question: how many have heard from this creator/god? I have never heard of any discussed anywhere except in a few very religious examples and they are not recent or well documented. Are we talking “Burning Bush” type examples?jerry
June 24, 2022
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PS, this substance is not "dogma," a term of insubstantial dismissal, but instead is good report from authentic source with excellent chain of custody.kairosfocus
June 24, 2022
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AC, strawman, it remains. You imply that God cannot get people who are of the level of a good clerk much less one to partner with, something many authors routinely do. That is inherently ill advised and reflects a selective hyperskepticism that is all too common. KFkairosfocus
June 24, 2022
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@Kairosfocus: It's not a strawman. The comment you've quoted referred to me and SA talking about the communication-abilities of prophets, not whether god can use prophets. Please try to be more attentive. Furthermore I never said that god can't use or doesn't use prophets. What I claimed was that they are unnecessary, since they potentially introduce an additional layer of (to quote you) "self serving thinking, self blindness, crooked yardstick thinking". As an engineer and a heavily resource-restricted human I'm also trying to be a pragmatist. So why listen to prophets, if you have a personal relationship with god? That I don't buy into the christian dogmas is obvious. Maybe the problem is you assume a christian worldview and reason about me, the prophets and god from this worldview. I do not.AndyClue
June 24, 2022
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F/N: Origins is focal to what has gone wrong with our civilisation, starting with how we got to imposition of Lewontin's a priori evolutionary materialistic scientism, which poses a core philosophy thesis dressed in a lab coat, i.e. it is incoherent at core. Science cannot be the sole or even main source of credible knowledge. Similarly, the evolutionary materialism struggles to account for the FSCO/I in a computational substrate, much less for the oracle based rational responsible freedom required to have an intelligent, credible discussion, as say Haldane knew 90 years ago. All of this has ramifications all over our civilisation, and ties back to core first principles issues. So, it is appropriate for us to remember the core but address the span of the problematique, a thorny thicket of tangled, mutually reinforcing problems that poses policy and analysis dilemmas.kairosfocus
June 24, 2022
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AC & SA:
I doubt a prophet would do a better job at communicating gods thoughts than god
Strawman caricature, the issue is in fact that God [notice the upper case] can use and work with prophets, teachers and others to communicate with us, and to make or cause record to be made. The fact that the Scriptures in question contain copious prophecies of Messiah [to the point that prophesy often has the sense predict] and especially those we find in Isa 52 - 3, fulfilled as reported on record c AD 55 in 1 Cor 15:1 - 11 becomes a point of calibrating accuracy. Which of course AC knows or should acknowledge, That instead there is dismissiveness tells us all we need to know on this side topic. Beyond a certain point, having noted for record, that is enough. KFkairosfocus
June 24, 2022
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AndyClue Haven’t met satan yet…
AndyClue I ditched the prophets and their holy texts.
Lieutenant Commander Data
June 24, 2022
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@Silver Asiatic @35 I agree with most of what you've said.AndyClue
June 23, 2022
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@LCD:
How do you detect from inner voices which one is God’s voice and which one is satan’s voice?
Haven't met satan yet... Is he your friend? How does he sound like? If you claim that satan can mimic god and if I alone have no way to differentiate, then the obvious way would be for god to make satan stop talking to me. Of course if god wants me to mistake him for satan, then who am I to object??
Do you believe that the thought that you can access God directly is from God? Did you change your life by this “method”? I don’t think so.
By "method" you mean "communication"? I'm astonished. Allegedly a lot of people claim to have a personal relationship with god. How can one have a personal relationship without communication? Of course my life changed. One of the changes is: I ditched the prophets and their holy texts.AndyClue
June 23, 2022
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"materialism is accepted as science" Only by materialists. Andrewasauber
June 23, 2022
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Sorry, science doesn’t speak to specific spiritual issues.
It's a trick . Materialism is a belief in supernatural power of chemicals (never observed) :lol: while theism in supernatural power of God(Jesus real historical person :witnesses ,manuscripts, miracles, 2000 years of Christianity ,etc.). Both are beliefs but somehow materialism is accepted as "science" because says that dirt have magical powers? Materialism is more religious than Christianity .Lieutenant Commander Data
June 23, 2022
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"So the atheist remark gets changed slightly to make a theist version?" Relatd, Sorry, science doesn't speak to specific spiritual issues. Not sure why you think it does or can. Andrewasauber
June 23, 2022
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We also have a lot of political conversations here and the ID side is usually right-wing conservative, like the Discovery Institute. But there's no reason why a pro-IDist couldn't be left-wing socialist. ID doesn't specify a political position but all the IDists are on one side anyway.Silver Asiatic
June 23, 2022
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Relatd
So the atheist remark gets changed slightly to make a theist version?
This blog has theists of different backgrounds talking about the science, but not the religion. Modern ID was mostly supported by Protestants when it started. Here we have mostly Protestant Christians, a few Catholics, a couple of Eastern Orthodox, non-denominational theists and we get some Jews and Moslems once in a while. So, there's never really a discussion about God beyond just a basic theism. There should be other places where people could discuss religion, after they accept ID.Silver Asiatic
June 23, 2022
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ET at 53, So the atheist remark gets changed slightly to make a theist version? It's obvious to me what's going on among average people. The designer -- which can never be named -- is named by average people.relatd
June 23, 2022
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The closest ID gets to religion is that Intelligent Design allows for an intellectually fulfilled theist.ET
June 23, 2022
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Jerry at 50, ID, as science, works. Evolution, as advertised in Biology textbooks, does not. What do you think most people do with that knowledge? Assume no one/nothing made them? Like you, I'm not interested in seeing heated exchanges over this or that religion generally or this or that Christian denomination specifically. But I think the average person takes ID past the science because he sees the the truth in it.relatd
June 23, 2022
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Maybe this will help, Relatd... ID fits well with a larger Christian belief because it points to a Designer, however ID has nothing about What To Do Next in it. That's why we have scripture, and the church, and natural law. These things are way beyond the scope of ID. Andrew PS ID doesn't tell you to read the Psalms, or work diligently, or go to church, or even treat someone with kindness. It can't. It has a hard stopping point. The call to do these things comes from somewhere else.asauber
June 23, 2022
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Are you here only for fun and to kill some time like atheists?
Another clueless remark. I believe trying to promote a specific religion is counterproductive. For example, should a Jew promote Judaism and a Muslim promote Islam here? Then there are the hundreds of varieties of Christianity. Are they all the same? Aside: I have been commenting here longer than anyone else currently posting here except for I believe one person. There is no bigger defender of ID than myself and the discussions have generally been harmonious. So I find this pushing of a specific religion ironic among pro ID people since I am sure that the debates could get very vitriolic quickly once a specific religion is the focus. Aside:2: I’m here to learn. Not much in the last couple years. Though Denton’s new book is a welcome addition.jerry
June 23, 2022
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With all due respect, this sounds like the evolutionists’ “evolution has nothing to do with the origin of life.” Relatd, I think you are just confused. The claims of Evolutionists don't dictate what ID can and cannot do. They are irrelevant. Andrewasauber
June 23, 2022
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Andrew at 47, With all due respect, this sounds like the evolutionists' "evolution has nothing to do with the origin of life."relatd
June 23, 2022
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"ID does “one thing” and then what?" Relatd, "And Then What?" is one of the Big Questions. ID doesn't have the answers. Ask. Seek. Knock. Different ballgame. Andrewasauber
June 23, 2022
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Andrew at 45, Like evolutionists, ID must also exclude religion? I understand the "science" aspect, but evolution is used as a "reasonable" basis for excluding God. You should know that the Catholic Church can do what pure science cannot, combine Intelligent Design with Divine revelation. Atheists don't want this since ID the science can be linked to God and provide a reasonable basis for His existence. ID does "one thing" and then what? It's just an academic exercise?relatd
June 23, 2022
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