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Michael Egnor Responds to Michael Lemonick at Time Online

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In a piece at Time Online, More Spin from the Anti-Evolutionists, senior writer Michael Lemonick attacks ID, the Discovery Institute, the signatories of the Dissent From Darwin list, and Michael Egnor in particular.

Dr. Michael Egnor (a professor of neurosurgery and pediatrics at State University of New York, Stony Brook, and an award-winning brain surgeon named one of New York’s best doctors by New York Magazine) is quoted: “Darwinism is a trivial idea that has been elevated to the status of the scientific theory that governs modern biology.” You can imagine the ire this comment would provoke from a Time science journalist.

The comments section is very illuminating as Dr. Egnor replies to and challenges Lemonick.

Egnor comments:

Can random heritable variation and natural selection generate a code, a language, with letters (nucleotide bases), words (codons), punctuation (stop codons), and syntax? There is even new evidence that DNA can encode parallel information, readable in different reading frames.

I ask this question as a scientific question, not a theological or philosophical question. The only codes or languages we observe in the natural world, aside from biology, are codes generated by minds. In 150 years, Darwinists have failed to provide even rudimentary evidence that significant new information, such as a code or language, can emerge without intelligent agency.

I am asking a simple question: show me the evidence (journal, date, page) that new information, measured in bits or any appropriate units, can emerge from random variation and natural selection, without intelligent agency.

Egnor repeats this request for evidence several times in his comments. Incredibly, Lemonick not only never provides an answer, he retorts: “[One possibility is that] your question isn’t a legitimate one in the first place, and thus doesn’t even interest actual scientists.”

Lemonick goes on to comment: “Invoking a mysterious ‘intelligent designer’ is tantamount to saying ‘it’s magic.'”

Egnor replies:

Your assertion that ID is “magic,” however, is ironic. You are asserting that life, in its astonishing complexity, arose spontaneously from the mud, by chance. Even the UFO nuts would balk at that.

It gets worse. Your assertion that the question, “How much biological information can natural selection actually generate?” might not be of interest to Darwinists staggers me. The question is the heart of Darwinism’s central claim: the claim that, to paraphrase Richard Dawkins, “biology is the study of complex things that appear to be designed, but aren’t.” It’s the hinge on which the argument about Darwinism turns. And you tell me that the reason that Darwinists have no answer is that they don’t care about the question (!).

More comments from Egnor:

There are two reasons that people you trust might not find arguments like mine very persuasive:

They’re right about the science, and they understand that I’m wrong.
or
They’re wrong about the science, and they’re evading questions that would reveal that they’re wrong.

My “argument” is just a question: How much new information can Darwinian mechanisms generate? It’s a quantitative question, and it needs more than an <i>ad hominem</a> answer. If I ask a physicist, “How much energy can fission of uranium generate?” he can tell me the answer, without much difficulty, in ergs/ mass of uranium/unit time. He can provide references in scientific journals (journal, issue, page) detailing the experiments that generated the number. Valid scientific theories are transparent, in this sense.

So if “people you trust” are right about the science, they should have no difficulty answering my question, with checkable references and reproducible experiments, which would get to the heart of Darwinists’ claims: that the appearance of design in living things is illusory.

[…]

One of the things that has flipped me to the ID side, besides the science, is the incivility of the Darwinists. Their collective behavior is a scandal to science. Look at what happened to Richard Sternberg at the Smithsonian, or at the sneering denunciations of ID folks who ask fairly obvious questions that Darwinists can’t answer.

The most distressing thing about Darwinists’ behavior has been their almost unanimous support for censorship of criticism of Darwinism in public schools. It’s sobering to reflect on this: this very discussion we’re having now, were it to be presented to school children in a Dover, Pennsylvania public school, would violate a federal court order and thus be a federal crime.

There’s lots more interesting stuff in the comments section referenced above. I encourage you to check it out. I was pleasantly surprised at the number of commentaters who stood up for ID and challenged Darwinian theory along with Dr. Egnor.

[HT: Evolution News & Views]

Comments
tribune7, "I think you may be starting to catch on just a little." This is an ignorant remark and indicates you have no idea what the debate is all about. Is this an attempted put down? The discussion has been about the concept of CSI and whether there is a useful definition of it. I was never denying that DNA had an intelligent origin or wasn't amazingly designed. The term CSI is thrown about here like it means something. Well if it means something then define it and use it to show how it leads to something. I have seen debates about the "Theory of Intelligent Design" which ended in a morass because no one could understand the terms being discussed. The discipline of Intelligent Design is under constant attack because it has no content or haven't you noticed that. If you want to point to the obvious complexity of the process and the improbability of the results I have no problem. The existence of the various proteins themselves is enough proof for me that the whole thing could not have happened by chance. Go through all my comments here and see if there is one that questions the intelligent origin of DNA or its ability to prescribe life's processes. What I question and still say is that no one has shown that there is an easily understandable definition of CSI. My example of the numbers was to only ask if there is a pattern in the numbers or nucleotide sequences itself that is comparable to the coin tosses, Rushmore example or anything else that is used to illustrate CSI. You reply in 125 is a example of preaching to the choir and that is not what the discussion is about. I still rest my case that there is no one that has presented an understandable defintion of CSI and untill then the term should not be invoked by anyone to demonstrate the intelligent origin of anything. Use all the examples one wants to. They seem obvious to me and many others but I doubt if they convert one Darwinist wgi also use the confusion over CSI to tie up the arguments with the inadequacy of Intelligent Design as a formal discipline to explain anything.jerry
February 23, 2007
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kairosfocus, I am glad you have stopped lurking. Welcome to UD.tribune7
February 23, 2007
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Errata: ....It's interesting to note in this context that the account in Genesis has God bringing all the animals....PaV
February 22, 2007
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Hi again: Tribune 7: Thanks. I will use it, maybe with slight mods for the correlations, say we see twirl 2 has a 1-1 match: 1-3, 2-4, so that if 1 is in twirl A or B, the corresponding digit is in the other twirl. [Comment: Changing terminology seems to help clarify when we may have a lot at stake that tends to cloud the issue when we use more familiar terms. Here, it seems that there is a lot at stake in recognising that DNA is a four-state, digitally coded string -- so n elements imply a configuration space of 4^n, reaching 10^150 at about 250 elements -- that embeds a bill of materials, with sequencing and procedural elements, such as start/stop. I have recently actually been called a “liar” for trying to point that out! [The objector majored on the subsidiary point that the start codon in DNA codes for a protein monomer so how dare I put them together with stop codons under the same rubric, demanding an explanation of how that comes to be anything but unintelligent. I have just got back to him that sometimes stop codons also code for oddball monomers, and also pointed out earlier that once we see a complex code at work, that puts agency seriously on the table as what in our experience is the most likely explanation for such a phenomenon. But, with a lot riding on the line, that can be hard to see I think.] Great_Ape: Re 129: I can’t see how any amount of “exhaustion of probabilistic resources” necessarily/logically excludes any individual outcome that exists in the sample space First, by sharp contrast with recent experience, I note how the tone here is ever so refreshing and serious. You have made no small contribution to that. Kudos to you. Notice what tribune 7 keep s referring to: on what would you be willing to bet? [When the odds are sufficiently against you, and the stakes are higher than you are willing/can afford to lose . . . there lurks a prudence argument here, a la Pascal's Wager . . .] But there is also a consistency argument, as in my "selective hyperskepticism" case. That is, to function in this world, on a common sense basis or even in scientific contexts, we routinely make inferences to best explanation across the triad necessity/ chance/ agency, and we in fact bet a lot on this, even in the face of the possibility of errors in such inferences. So, if/when we suddenly back off into skepticism (i.e., impose an unreasonable degree of "proof" requirement on matters of empirical fact and explanation), when there is not only the possibility to revise the bet on agency -- where there is similar probabilistic resource exhaustion to say inference to agency for the text of this message [e.g. I could be a Turing Machine mimicking a human . . . or this strictly could be lucky noise that by random chance, however improbably, happens to come out as functional text in this thread] -- then some of us will infer that he best explanation may well be worldview-level question begging. A further factor in this, is that we can see that there is in fact a well-known attempt to materialistically redefine "science" in the teeth of demarcation issues and the history of its founding and praxis in key quarters even today, through so-called "methodological naturalism." So, applying the criterion of functionality, then looking at contingency and the issue of exhaustion of probabilistic resources to decide if agency is a best explanation, looks a lot more reasonable from where I sit. But then, I can easily enough see that if one is in doubt on the possibility of agency in the case in question, that may shift one's estimation of the probabilities. (So, we come right back to the issue as to whether there are reasonably credible signs of agency at work, which can be empirically detected, and whether we are willing to trust the results of such inference when we have a lot on the line, scientifically, institutionally, educationally, policywise, and even at worldviews level. Thus the heat that too often overwhelms the light.) Hey, it's time for me to try to get back to sleep. [Or, is that a lazy Turing Machine cleverly programmed, or are the lucky noise bits getting real smart for what is just designoid blind watchmaker stuff . . .] Cheerio GEM of TKIkairosfocus
February 22, 2007
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great_ape: "If this is indeed the case, then the concept of CSI would suggest that we could not offer a satisfactory explanation for *any* complex phenomenon that was not intelligently designed. " I think your thought, here, corresponds to what I wrote in post# 56: "With this said, it now becomes clear that ‘rules’ themselves are the direct product of ‘intelligence’, implying that ‘significant information’ [a term I use to distinguish it from mathematical definitions of informatin] can only be produced by ‘intelligence’. This, in turn, has direct application to the so-called “Anthropic Principle”, where, within the ‘infinite’ possibilities for each of the physical constants of the world, the ones we have are the only ones operative. IOW, the electrical charge of the electron is not a ‘law’; it is more a ‘rule’ of the universe, with the implication that some ‘Intelligence’ has chosen it." Bottom line: 'rules' are the functioning of intelligence. God's 'rules' we know as 'laws of nature'. Then there's our 'rules'--as in language. It's interesting to note in this context that the account in Genesis as God bringing all the animals that existed so that Adam could give them a name, the implication being that language is man producing rules rather than God. So, getting to the question of DNA, the only question to ask is: does it follow any rules? If the answer is, yes, then it has been specified (in this case, by the Designer).PaV
February 22, 2007
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I might be willing to bet. A very tiny sum of money. I hate to even waste a penny :-)tribune7
February 22, 2007
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Fair enough. BUT what would you be willing to bet that it did?" ==tribune7 I might be willing to bet. A very tiny sum of money. Consider the odds ratio: in the ridiculously unlikely event that the outcome happened, I'd make a killing. ;)great_ape
February 22, 2007
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To qualify 129: I can't see how any amount of "exhaustion of probabilistic resources" necessarily/logically excludes any individual outcome that exists in the sample space. However vanishingly small the outcome's probability is, if it couldn't happen in your universe, then it's not in the sample space. If the outcome simply can't happen, then you're no longer dealing with statistics or probability.great_ape
February 22, 2007
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If one wanted to be formal, I think Jerry would still be warranted in believing it was *possible* for all this to happen at random. Fair enough. BUT what would you be willing to bet that it did?tribune7
February 22, 2007
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"Would you still believe that it was possible for all this to happen at random?" ==tribune7 If one wanted to be formal, I think Jerry would still be warranted in believing it was *possible* for all this to happen at random. ;)great_ape
February 22, 2007
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Kairosfocus, Re 127; Thank you and yes! :-)tribune7
February 22, 2007
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tribune 7: Re 125: brilliant! (Can I borrow and use it?) GEM of TKIkairosfocus
February 22, 2007
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tribune 7: Re 116 on 108. Thanks, welcome. great_ape: Re 123 - 4: You have aptly shown the significance of FUNCTIONALLY specified complex information. (And, BTW, redundancy in analysis and communication is often an asset, so even if there is an overlap between specificity and complexity, that may well be functional. For instance, classically, in Newtonian Dynamics, the First Law, strictly is a special case of the second: F = 0 implies that a = 0, where F = ma. But, understanding explicitly that when there is no net force there will be no net acceleration so bodies tend to remain at rest or to move at steady speed in a constant direction absent such forces, is vital. A good example is in understanding why circular motion is accelerated.) My "algorithm" on inference to agency: 1] First, show that there is functionality in a context that entails specification and information, then 2] Address contingency. (Does the case show that contingency is at work? If so then chance or agency dominates -- once necessary and sufficient deterministic conditions are present, the result will be present directly, at a rate governed by the dynamics of natural regularities at work: fuel + air + heat --> fire.) 3] Finally, address complexity: If the chance option would credibly exhaust the available probabilistic resources, then agency is a better explanation. At that point you are entitled to state, on an inference to best explanation basis, what is the best answer: chance, necessity, or agency, or what blend of the three major causal forces. We routinely do this intuitively in many contexts, and through Fisherian or similar inference explicitly in statistics and science in many situations. (So the issue of selective hyperskepticism when key worldview level assumptions and related outlooks, agendas and attitudes are at stake becomes an issue. Indeed, I think this best explains the hostility we so often see and which is so often adverted to in this blog's threads.) As an instance of “blending,” in my linked: * unconstrained heavy objects tend to fall under that NR we call gravity. * if the object is a die, the up-face is essentially chosen at random after tumbling, from the set {1,2,3,4,5,6}, thanks to the kinetic energy, centre of gravity and eight corners plus twelve edges leading to complex rotations adn frictional losses that eventually damp out the motion. * If the die is tossed as a part of a game, then its outcomes are as much a product of agency as of chance and necessity. Trust that helps. Cheers GEM of TKIkairosfocus
February 22, 2007
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But if you were given the DNA sequences as sequences of the numbers 1, 2, 3 and 4 and not knowing where they came from, would you know they were not produced by random forces? I think you may be starting to catch on just a little. Now, suppose that sequence of of numbers spiraled around another sequence of those same set of numbers. And suppose the numbers on the one spiral always matched only certain specific numbers on the other spiral. And suppose those spirals were always the same direction. And suppose the sequence of numbers were the same except in going opposite directions. And suppose we found there was another device that would scan these sets of numbers and send them to another device which would make working machines. Would you still believe that it was possible for all this to happen at random?tribune7
February 22, 2007
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"It is not rare because it is complex, but because it is specified." ==gpuccio Then we are in agreement as far as this goes. I was having issues with the idea that the complexity was supposed to add significantly more rarity to the observed pattern *above and beyond* the "specified" attribute. The way certain things were phrased lead me to that erroneous impression. Really, it should be paraphrased "complex phenomena, not so hard to find; complex phenomena that are "specified, exceptionally rare finds." With that elementary-level confusion hopefully behind me, I must ponder whether one can objectively treat the admittedly partially subjective notion of "specificity" without tangling oneself into philosophical knots.great_ape
February 22, 2007
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"DNA is just text, with nucleotides as the letters and triplets as the words, AA chains equivalent to sentences and protein complexes as paragraphs." ==Atom I'd just like to point out that it wasn't always the case that the linguistic/engineering analogy of DNA was evident. A lot of work went into first establishing that these nucleic acids were even the vehicle of information within cells and only then into discerning how the information is read and actualized. In many respects, the latter is still being worked out. My point is that it didn't jump out initially as an obvious specified pattern. The considerable effort that went into working all that out attests to the fact that, although analogies can retrospectively be drawn to linguistics and engineering structures, the details of implementation were quite alien to anything we'd have thunk up ourselves. What strikes me about those cell movies you guys posted is not only the sophistication, which one can not help but appreciate, but also a certain "otherness" that seems rather alien to our human mode of intelligence and way of doing things. So I guess my question--though a bit esoteric--is this: If you have to put tremendous time/energy/effort into discovering the specified nature of a found pattern, is it really specified with regards to one of *your* established patterns? Or did you just work hard enough until you explained or "translated" it into the best structures you had at your disposal. Because the more I think about it, it seems that any complex phenomenon that you can offer a *explanation* for, at some level, has been translated into your species' subjective repertoire of existing patterns and, as such, could be labeled as a "specified" pattern. Otherwise it would be unintelligible. If this is indeed the case, then the concept of CSI would suggest that we could not offer a satisfactory explanation for *any* complex phenomenon that was not intelligently designed.great_ape
February 22, 2007
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Jerry, Your objection applies to plain English as well:
But if you were given the [english sentences] as sequences of the numbers 1, 2, 3,..., 26 and not knowing where they came from, would you know they were not produced by random forces?
Good question, would you?Atom
February 22, 2007
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gpuccio, You support my conclusion that no one knows an easily understandible definition of CSI. It may be an important concept but until it can be defined so that others can understand what it means it may be useless in convincing anyone that life is designed.jerry
February 22, 2007
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tribune7, I don't think anyone believes DNA is a random pattern of nucleotide sequences given what they can do. But if you were given the DNA sequences as sequences of the numbers 1, 2, 3 and 4 and not knowing where they came from, would you know they were not produced by random forces? I have no idea of the answer nor do I know if anyone actually knows the answer. When you are writing in a hurry, you do not always say things precisely.jerry
February 22, 2007
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Jerry -- As far as we know it is a random pattern of nucleotide sequences? Jerry, I don't think even Dawkins and PZ believe that.tribune7
February 22, 2007
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jerry: I don't agree with your concept that a sequence is specified only if it contains a pattern "in itself". That is a possibility. But a sequence can be specified also, and even more, because it contains information about something external to the sequence itself, an information which cannot be there by chance. That is the case of all languages. To give another, non linguistic example, you can have a long sequence of 0 and 1 which is apparently random if you look at it as digits, but if you know how to decode it, passing it to a graphics computer program, you can find that it is a digital picture of a map of the USA, with all the pertinent details. Would you say that the sequence is not specified? It certainly is. It cannot come out as a random succession of bits where each bit has the same probability of being 0 and 1 (or rather, it could mathematically, but it really can't in the true world). So, unless you have a plausible explanation of how that image came into being, you are perfectly right to assume that an intelligent agent, in some way, produced it. So, to say that specification must be restricted to the case of an inner pattern of the sequence is not correct: that is only one possibility. And if you read carefully all the ID literature, and especially Dembski (and yes, I think you should do that: specification is a difficult subject and you can't expect that it can be "stereotyped" in a few words covering all the aspects of the problem), you will find that the most common examplification of specification is relative to this second meaning. Moreover, I would say that the genetic code, the fact that the nucleotides are arranged according to a three letter code, corresponding to the aminoacids, is in itself a pattern of the sequence: indeed, although you need to know the code to decipher the meaning (and don't forget that we do know the code), we can often understand that we are observing a language even if we don't understand the code and the content: there are linguistic instruments to recognize that, and that means that a language sequence has, anyway, some intrinsic recognizable structure (recurrences, some order, and so on). Indeed, as you may have read, scientists from the field of informatics are now studying the known sequences of DNA , especially the non coding part, to understand how it is structured, and to derive its meaning from the structure. And some results have alredy been obtained (see the recent paper from IBM scientists about a "second code" in DNA which would work determining the 3D structure of the molecule at critical points, through non random occurrences of specific sequences even in the middle of protein coding genes: an informational structure overlapped to another informational structure!). So, it seems to me that DNA is at least twice specified: by internal, linguistic structures recognizable in the sequence itself, and even more for the information, engineering and regulation content clearly written in the sequence by means of a definite language.gpuccio
February 22, 2007
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gpuccio, I understand most everything DNA can do or is now speculated to do. But the discussion is over a definition of CSI and it seems that something is CSI not by what it specifies but by some pattern within itself. It is CSI if a recognizable pattern exists within it. So pointing to its effects is not appropriate. Currently DNA is only recognized as something special because of its effects which are amazing. But what is it about the DNA itself that would lead someone to say it is specified. Even repeating sequences could be the result of some random function of natural forces. I assumed the "S" in CSI was supposed to take care that it could not have arisen by natural permutations and therefore had to have an intelligent input. So what is it about the sequences themselves that says they cannot have been generated by random physical forces. We all point to the remarkable things it specifies and I agree it is conclusive. But what evidence in DNA itself says it was specified. Until then Darwinists will say the DNA arose by random events, which we do not understand yet. They will say it arose in bits and pieces. The popular current term is "emerged." They will however, say it was remarkable luck.jerry
February 22, 2007
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kairosfocus, great post (108)tribune7
February 22, 2007
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Actually, it is even simpler than that. Can any string of text be CSI? DNA is just text, with nucleotides as the letters and triplets as the words, AA chains equivalent to sentences and protein complexes as paragraphs. Words by themselves are useless (functionless) without a translation mechanism, i.e. background knowledge. If we were as familiar with DNA as we are with english letters and words, we wouldn't ask "What is CSI about DNA itself?" In turn I can ask: "What is CSI about any string of text itself?" (DNA just being an example of a string in a different language.) Words and sentences describe things, and it is in this description that their function resides.Atom
February 22, 2007
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Jerry Re: 112 Is a long string of encrypted text CSI? (If decoded, it is the full text of Merriam-Webster's Dictionary.) Answering this question will answer your own. The explanation for both is the same.Atom
February 22, 2007
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jerry: "How do we know that DNA is CSI?" That's a very good question. In my opinion, there are many different answers, each one with a definite value. I have already written in the above discussion that, in my opinion, specification can be defined in different ways, provided that the information which is specified be characterized by something which makes it "recognizable" to a conscious observer. In DNA, there are various levels which allow to recognize specification, that is to say that it is "multi-specified". a) DNA, at least for the protein coding part (about 1,5-2% of the total) is a well understood language. A language is one of the foremost indications of specification. In that sense, DNA may well be compared to long phrases, to an ordered list of triplets with punctuation signs and various other functional "words", together with the fundamental words which codify the 20 aminoacids. The DNA code is almost universal in nature (but not completely), and it is redundant (different triplets codify the same aminoacid). The DNA code is read, with perfect order, by another linguistic organule, the rybosome. Even the choice of using sequences of three nucleotides to code an aminoacid is absolutely intelligent and specified mathematically: indeed, to code for 20 aminoacids, a two nucleotide code would not be enough (4^2 combinations, that is 16), and so a three nucleotide code is the least useful alhpabet (4^3 combinations, that is 64, allowing for redundancy, which is probably a specifically useful tool, and for functional "signs". Protein coding DNA is a specified language also for another reason: its products are higly specific and functional proteins, about 20000 of them, each with mean complexity of hundreds of aminoacids, therfore each of them well aboe Dembski UPB. But there is more. Bryond protein coding, DNA has a lot of further functions, many of them still poorly understood. Its spacial structure with repeated foldings is incerdibly complex and elegant. In the 98% of non coding DNA are certainly hidden precious regulatory functions, but nobody still understands how, given that great part of those sequences are apparently repetitive and useless, if judged by our present understanding. Only recently it has been recognized that specific sequences, intelligently interspersed throughout the whole DNA molecule (coding and not coding parts) have a key role in determining the 3D structure of DNA and therefore also its transcription status. And so on, and so on... Specified? DNA is ulra-specified, it is in itself a living world with incredibly stratified levels of meaning and functions, and practically every day new wonders are discovered about it. Just to get an idea, please look at the animations recently posted on this blog, and ask yourself if what you see seems specified or not...gpuccio
February 22, 2007
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How do we know that DNA is CSI? As far as we know it is a random pattern of nucleotide sequences? It is only because it specifies something that we know it is unusual. Is there anything about the sequence itself disregarding the implications of what this sequence specifies that makes it CSI. Coin flips with regular outcomes, random numbers, painted figures, arrows in bulls eyes all are conforming to a pattern so it is the pattern that determines whether it is CSI or not. But what pattern is DNA conforming to. It is just a sequence of 4 molecules. What is it about any organism's DNA that makes it different from a random arrangement of the nucleotides and makes it CSI? Certain sequences are repetitive which is certainly not random but this could be explained by natural forces, which create many self-ordering phenomena. So what is CSI about DNA itself? Or why is it specified? Or is it only called specified because of its functional outcomes? If we randomly replace 10,000 nucleotides in a genome, would anyone know the difference if they did not have anything else to compare it to? But then the DNA would probably be useless. So it seems that its unusualness is not in any inherent pattern in the sequences itself such as are in coin flips giving only heads or Mt. Rushmore but in the effects of the sequences.jerry
February 22, 2007
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Jerry wrote: PaV, What does “right-ordering” mean? Is a specific outcropping of a rock formation, highly improbable. I think so and it is also complex. So I guess right ordering is what makes the difference but I do not know what you mean by the term. "Right-ordering" means that the relationship among the various parts form the correct pattern. By way of illustration, Dembski's example of the series of prime numbers (in binary code) emerging from what looks like a random string of 1's and 0's reresents 'right-ordering'.PaV
February 22, 2007
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Tribune7, now the entire scenario may (or may not) have CSI, since it seems to match a pattern (Prophet performs miracle in judgment), And is extraordinarily improbable. but the individual pieces like the thunderstorm in isolation do not necessarily. That is true.tribune7
February 22, 2007
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great_ape: "I remain confused as to why the possession of high Shannon information by any given specified pattern would be considered rare. " As I have already said, certainly the concept of specification is in itself deep and elusive. But it is difficult for me to understand why there is such a great confusion about the meaning of Dembski's approach to it, in other words of his general definition of CSI. It may not be perfect, it may not solve all problems, but at least, in my opinion, it is clear and well operational. Great_ape, let's get back to the 500 coin flips example, and let's see it in another way: we have a sequence of 0 and 1, 500 bit long, which could have been generated random by a computer program, giving equal probability (0,5) to 0 and 1, or in alternative could have been written by someone. Let's suppose that we observe only one sequence, and that it is composed of 500 ones. Then: 1) Obviously, the sequence we observe has the same probability as any other sequence: 1 to 2^500, that is about 1 to 10^150, that is Dembski's UPB. Therefore, the sequence is complex, but not necessarily rare. 2) For once, let's be a little Bayesian: if you were asked to choose between the two hypotheses, random computer sequence or human agent, what would you do? (suppose you have to bet real money...) The sequence is obviously specified, and therefore rare (only a small subset of all possible sequences is specified, however we define specification). That's why nobody would have any doubt if betting real money. 3) If you ask me why the sequence is specified, I would prefer to leave the answer to Dembski, or to Salvador. But I am sure that the answer exists. Probably, there may be more than one answer, but anyway the subset of specified sequences is always a very small subset of all possible sequences (that is, most sequences are really random, and you cannot specify them in any way). For me, the very simple explanation of this particular specification is, very simply, that all 500 values are 1. I think that means that this particular sequence is higly compressible, and my impression is that conscious intelligent beings can easily "recognize" highly compressible sequences, or at least some of them. But the simple fact, beyond all mathematical definitions, is: an intelligent being could very easily write that specific sequence, indeed that would probably be one of the first sequences that one would write if one's intention were to write down something "recognizable" by another intelligent being (500 zeros are obviously another good candidate). The probability that the same sequence may be randomly generated is, on the contrary, so low that we can easily refuse it for all practical and scientific purposes (if we are dealing with real world science, and not only with mathematics). 4) So, it is that simple. The sequence is complex and rare. It is not rare because it is complex, but because it is specified. The complexity is necessary because, for instance, a sequence of 5 ones is certainly specified, but it is not complex enough to refuse the chance of it being generated randomly. So, complexity is necessary together with specification to practically refuse chance.gpuccio
February 22, 2007
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