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Climate Change: How to Lie without appearing to Lie

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Here’s almost 40 years of climate models, starting in 1971–when “Global Cooling” was feared, to the Hansen models in the 1980’s, the first in 1981 and the second in 1988, and the last ones by the IPCC, Assessment Reports (AR) from the 1990’s to about 2010.

Notice that the decadal rate of temperature increase remains almost the SAME for the entire 40 year period! And notice how the early models–mostly in the 1970’s when ‘cooling’ was in vogue, are very close to actuals. It’s only when super-duper “climate change models” were devised in the 90’s and later on that the sizable deviations occur.

So, here’s the ‘lie’: these authors claim that climate change models actually stack up quite well to actual temperatures, when, in fact, this is only true because they’ve used very simple models from the 70’s to average out the much larger errors that the super-duper “climate models” are showing. “There are lies, damned lies, and statistics!” And this is statistical averaging and a big lie!

But, theres MORE:

Here’s a quote from the Phys.Org press release:

Climate models are based on two main assumptions. One is the physics of the atmosphere and how it reacts to heat-trapping gases. The other is the amount of greenhouse gases put into the air.

A few times, scientists were wrong in their predictions about the growth of carbon pollution, saying there would be more of the gases than there actually were, Hausfather said. If they got the amount of heat-trapping gases wrong, they then got the temperatures wrong.

So Hausfather and colleagues, including NASA climate scientist Gavin Schmidt, looked at how well the models did on just the pure science, taking out the emissions factor. On that count, 14 of the 17 computer models accurately predicted the future.

So, if LEAVE OUT the amount of “Greenhouse Gases,” then models become accurate. So, what’s the point of the models, then? What a mockery of science this represents!!

Comments
BartM @ 86
We were told the Maldives would be underwater by now. Instead they are investing BILLIONS in new real estate development and are building FIVE new airports.
They are indeed. Unfortunately, that's not the whole story
As the flattest country on Earth, the Republic of Maldives is extremely vulnerable to rising sea level and faces the very real possibility that the majority of its land area will be underwater by the end of this century.4,9,16,18 Today, the white sand beaches and extensive coral reefs of the Maldives' 1,190 islands draw more than 600,000 tourists annually.2 Sea level rise is likely to worsen existing environmental stresses in the Maldives, such as periodic flooding from storm surge, and a scarcity of freshwater for drinking and other purposes.5,11 Given mid–level scenarios for global warming emissions,17 the Maldives is projected to experience sea level rise on the order of 1.5 feet (half a meter)—and to lose some 77 percent of its land area—by around the year 2100.4,9 If sea level were instead to rise by 3 feet (1 meter), the Maldives could be almost completely inundated by about 2085.18 The Maldivian government has identified many potential strategies for adapting to rising seas, but is also considering relocating its people to a new homeland.19,20
After looking closely at the volume of water that could come from glacial and ice sheet melt by the year 2100, scientists estimate that sea level could rise 2.6 feet (80 centimeters)—and that as much as 6.6 feet (2 meters) is possible, depending on the pace at which heat–trapping emissions are released.16 Given mid–level scenarios for those emissions,17 the Maldives is projected to experience sea–level rise on the order of 1.5 feet (50 centimeters) by around 2100.4,9 The country would lose 77 percent of its land area by the end of the century.4 If sea level were to rise by 3.3 feet (1 meter) and the Maldives did not pursue further coastal protection measures, it would be nearly completely inundated by about 2085.18 The Maldivian Ministry of Home Affairs, Housing and Environment has identified potential measures to help the country adapt to rising seas. These include protecting groundwater and increasing rainwater harvesting, as well as increasing the elevation of critical infrastructure.19 Migration is also a potential solution for Maldivians. In November 2008, the president announced the country's interest in buying a new homeland,20 though this approach would come at a high price, both financially and culturally
Seversky
December 8, 2019
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In no particular order: Here's a video that details how the temperature numbers are systematically and routinely gamed:
Recorded in Madrid, Spain, the site of the UN's COP25, Anthony Watts, founder of wattsupwiththat.com and a senior fellow for environment and climate at The Heartland Institute, talks about why the surface temperature record is flawed: Anthony Watts at COP25: Climate Change and Data Manipulation
Here's an article by meteorologist Roger Pielke, that appeared in "Forbes," discussing what I would describe as the doomsday cult rhetoric of the climate alarmists and the IPCC's culpability in fostering it:
It’s true that apocalyptic narratives have always had a place in discussions of climate. In 1989 the United Nations warned that the world had “a 10-year window of opportunity to solve the greenhouse effect before it goes beyond human control.” But the escalation of apocalyptic climate rhetoric in recent years is unprecedented. The drumbeat of doom has led some prominent figures to turn on the mainstream climate community, complaining that “climate scientists have been underestimating the rate of climate change and the severity of its effects.” In reality, climate science has not just accurately anticipated unfolding climate change, but has done so consistently for the past 50 years. There is thus an inconsistency here. Discussions of climate change have become more apocalyptic, but climate science has not. I have been working hard to understand this inconsistency, and while I don’t yet have all the answers, I have identified a big part of the puzzle, which I can report here for the first time. The Incredible Story Of How Climate Change Became Apocalyptic
Meanwhile at Anthony Watt's blog, David Middleton cross examines the claim that the climate models have been accurate:
How can he write this with straight face?
Even 50-year-old climate models correctly predicted global warming By Warren Cornwall Dec. 4, 2019 Climate change doubters have a favorite target: climate models. They claim that computer simulations conducted decades ago didn’t accurately predict current warming, so the public should be wary of the predictive power of newer models. Now, the most sweeping evaluation of these older models—some half a century old—shows most of them were indeed accurate. “How much warming we are having today is pretty much right on where models have predicted,” says the study’s lead author, Zeke Hausfather, a graduate student at the University of California, Berkeley. […] Most of the models accurately predicted recent global surface temperatures, which have risen approximately 0.9°C since 1970. For 10 forecasts, there was no statistically significant difference between their output and historic observations, the team reports today in Geophysical Research Letters. […] Seven older models missed the mark by as much as 0.1°C per decade. But the accuracy of five of those forecasts improved enough to match observations when the scientists adjusted a key input to the models: how much climate-changing pollution humans have emitted over the years.
The accuracy of the failed models improved when they adjusted them to fit the observations… Shocking. Climate Models Have Not Improved in 50 Years
Enjoy! (lol...)jstanley01
December 8, 2019
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ET @ 76 - read it. It doesn't address my point.Bob O'H
December 8, 2019
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Oh boy, I came in to see what the discussion here was like on this topic, and it’s bananas, sure there are climate change alarmists, and they are very real and problem, that doesn’t mean that all climate change science is debunked and we do need to take care of our world, But on the flipside we should not take every drop of research coming from that side of the spectrum as 100% truth either As there’s been many predictions of our end in 2014 and 2020 and 2030 where we all will be underwater, That’s my two cents and I’m out But holy cow is this a rough op Good luck y’all ;)AaronS1978
December 8, 2019
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We were told the Maldives would be underwater by now. Instead they are investing BILLIONS in new real estate development and are building FIVE new airports. https://maldives.net.mv/31166/maldives-to-open-five-new-airports-in-2019/BartM
December 7, 2019
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You know when timmy loses. He attacks the messenger instead of the math and science. Unfortunately for timmy, that is a daily occurrence.ET
December 7, 2019
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As predicted. Timmy's bluff gets called, and like the infant he is, throws a hissy fit. Torette's gets the better of this berserk maniac and pathological liar. The math caused timmy to wet hisself. LoL! Timmy Horton/ Occam's Aftershave/ adapa/ ghostdork/ thorton/ belligerent loser, thank you for proving that you are an insipid trollET
December 7, 2019
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ET
This one is interesting: Calculations suggest that Global warming caused by the doubling of CO2 will be less than 0.6K < 0.6Kelvin!!!11!!1!! Steamin'
Yes, very interesting. From the same researcher that brought us: New Water-Soluble Photoresists using Polymeric Azides for Color Picture Tube Fabrication And A new water-soluble photoresist used a polymeric azide compound as a photosensitizer And Microlithography Fundamentals in Semiconductor Devices and Fabrication Technology (Plastics Engineering) Well, I guess his credentials are better than those of a small appliance repairman who got fired for posting threatening comments from a company computer, the world’s dumbest YEC and all-time lowlife loser. :)Reapers Plague
December 7, 2019
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This one is interesting: Calculations suggest that Global warming caused by the doubling of CO2 will be less than 0.6K < 0.6Kelvin!!!11!!1!! Steamin'ET
December 7, 2019
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timmy Horton, bluffing fool:
now you are demanding that I re-prove the work conclusively demonstrated by spectroscopy researchers over the last hundred years.
Then you should be able to easily reference it. Meanwhile: Epic Warmist Fail! – Modtran: Doubling CO2 Will Do Nothing To Increase Long-Wave Radiation From SkyET
December 7, 2019
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Me
How does the fact that CO2 only absorbs and emits at one wavelength change the fact that doubling the concentration doubles the amount absorbed and emitted?
Virgil’s response
Does it? Please show your work.
Chubs, now you are demanding that I re-prove the work conclusively demonstrated by spectroscopy researchers over the last hundred years. Joke Gallien, world's dumbest YEC and all-time lowlife loser. :DReapers Plague
December 7, 2019
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"For the decade 2010-2019, the satellite temperatures averaged only 0.15 C higher than in the previous decade (1990-1999). That’s less than a third of a degree F, which no one would even notice over 10 years."- Dr Roy Spencer Well within any natural variation. CO2 is irrelevant is humid areas. And as we know it has little effect in dry areas.ET
December 7, 2019
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loser's weeper chokes and carries on anyway:
How does the fact that CO2 only absorbs and emits at one wavelength change the fact that doubling the concentration doubles the amount absorbed and emitted?
Does it? Please show your work. And it still doesn't change the fact that most of the LW IR from earth is unaffected by CO2. And doubling pittance will just give you a little more pittance, if it was a simple as you think. A better analogy would be a house with cargo netting for walls, ceiling and a roof. How much heat would it hold? We all know why you avoid that question. CO2 will poison the air before it causes any catastrophic warming.ET
December 7, 2019
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Sharon
CO2 will still only absorb and emit in ONE thermally relevant wavelength. Regardless of its concentration.
Chubs, context IS important. How does the fact that CO2 only absorbs and emits at one wavelength change the fact that doubling the concentration doubles the amount absorbed and emitted? You have ignored this like the willfully ignorant and desperate troll that you are. It’s as if you have no shame, Frankie.Reapers Plague
December 7, 2019
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Earth to Bob O'H- Please read the article Latemarch linked to in comment 52ET
December 7, 2019
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CONTEXT, loser's weeper. My claim pertained to a specific context which you ignored like the willfully ignorant and desperate troll that you are. CO2 will still only absorb and emit in ONE thermally relevant wavelength. Regardless of its concentration. Pertains to the atmospheric CO2 and you twisted it to lasers- manmade machines. It's as if you have no shame, timmy.ET
December 7, 2019
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PaV @ 55 -
I’m not “scrambling” for anything. I indicated the kind of averaging they did: i.e., lumping ‘accurate’ (the 1970’s models) with the ‘inaccurate’ (1990’s and beyond models), and then saying that, OVERALL, the models are fairly accurate.
The 3 inaccurate models are from 1970, 1971 and 1988. All, if my mathematics is beyond remedial level, before the 1990s.Bob O'H
December 7, 2019
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Me
My reference to lasers was in reference to you lame claim that a molecule that only absorbs at one wavelength can’t have a significant impact.
Joe, in response
That is a twisted view of my claim. You are desperate.
Joke, earlier in the thread
CO2 will still only absorb and emit in ONE thermally relevant wavelength. Regardless of its concentration.
Is lying something you do with conscious effort, or does it just come naturally? Inquiring minds want to know.Reapers Plague
December 7, 2019
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For the decade 2010-2019, the satellite temperatures averaged only 0.15 C higher than in the previous decade (1990-1999). That’s less than a third of a degree F, which no one would even notice over 10 years.- Dr Roy Spencer
0.15C has to be close to the margin of error...ET
December 7, 2019
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loser's weeper:
My reference to lasers was in reference to you lame claim that a molecule that only absorbs at one wavelength can’t have a significant impact.
That is a twisted view of my claim. You are desperate.
Snow is also used as a coolant
Snow isn't an alleged GHG- it isn't a gas. What is wrong with you? A better analogy would be a house with cargo netting for walls, ceiling and a roof. How much heat would it hold? We all know why you avoid that question. UD doesn’t need belligerent liars like you wasting people’s time and resources. You have thrown out many false examples and infantile innuendos that it is obvious that your intention is just to be belligerent. So why let you do that here when there is your swamp? Your quote-mine of that just serves to prove my point. Thank youET
December 7, 2019
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ET
But YOU are suggesting that atmospheric CO2 is like a laser that can melt steel.
I see you are suffering from a reading comprehension problem again. Talk about desperation. My reference to lasers was in reference to you lame claim that a molecule that only absorbs at one wavelength can’t have a significant impact. Well, lasers only emit one or two wavelengths but they can be very effective.
And CO2 is also used as a coolant.
Now you are really getting desperate. Snow is also used as a coolant but as I have already demonstrated it can be quite effective acting as an insulation.
UD doesn’t need belligerent liars
I agree. Are you voluntarily leaving?Reapers Plague
December 7, 2019
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loser’s weeper is in full meltdown and desperate now. Moderators why is that belligerent liar being allowed to post here?
translation
UD doesn't need belligerent liars like you wasting people's time and resources. You have thrown out many false examples and infantile innuendos that it is obvious that your intention is just to be belligerent. So why let you do that here when there is your swamp?ET
December 7, 2019
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loser's weeper:
And nobody is suggesting that global warming is caused by a single molecule of CO2.
But YOU are suggesting that atmospheric CO2 is like a laser that can melt steel. Talk about desperation. Atmospheric CO2 is NOTHING like a laser. For each molecule of atmospheric CO2 there are around 2500 non-CO2 molecules. You can't get a laser beam from that concentration. You don't get much of anything from that And CO2 is also used as a coolant. A better analogy would be a house with cargo netting for walls, ceiling and a roof. How much heat would it hold? Again, the scientific chart I provided shows how little CO2 impacts the GHG effect. And I understand why my detractors would ignore it. Answer the question. Either way you will have proved my point.ET
December 7, 2019
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ET
There aren’t any lasers made from one molecule of CO2.
And nobody is suggesting that global warming is caused by a single molecule of CO2. Obviously you are a very desperate loser. But CO2 lasers, which only emit at two primary wavelengths, are commonly used for welding and cutting.Reapers Plague
December 7, 2019
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Joke
loser’s weeper is in full meltdown and desperate now. Moderators why is that belligerent liar being allowed to post here?
Chubs translation: “Mommy, why are you letting the mean man treat me like I treat him. I am going to hold my breath until you ban him.”Reapers Plague
December 7, 2019
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Acartia Eddie, clueless dolt:
obviously neither have anything of value to say.
If that refers to you, reaper, Bob and mimus, you are correct
Maybe they will do better after their mothers give them their bottles and put them them down for their afternoon nap.
Give it a try. It may help you. But even a nap won't help with your ignboranceET
December 7, 2019
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Earth to mimus- unfortunately, you are not even wrong.ET
December 7, 2019
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Although reading through ET’s and RP’s discourse has been highly entertaining, in a childish immature sort of way, obviously neither have anything of value to say. Maybe they will do better after their mothers give them their bottles and put them them down for their afternoon nap.Ed George
December 7, 2019
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loser's weeper is in full meltdown and desperate now. Moderators why is that belligerent liar being allowed to post here?ET
December 7, 2019
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Mimus
Simply making up facts to support you case sounds a bit like this “rooted in ideology” idea to me a lot like ET to me.
There, I fixed it for you. :)Reapers Plague
December 7, 2019
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