JVL:
If we take the CFR for COVID-19 to be 2% . . . it’s a low estimate . . . in order to exceed Barry‘s limit* of 200,000 deaths in the US there would have to be over 10 million cases in the US. Wikipedia says the 2019 estimated population of the US is about 328 million so that means about 3% of the population would have to be diagnosed. It’s impossible to say, now, of course, but I’d be inclined to think that it’s fairly likely that 3% of the US population will get infected. We’ll see . . . .
JVL says “it’s fairly likely that” around 3% of the US population of 328,000,000 will contract COVID 19, resulting in 10,000,000 cases. (The exact number is 3.0488%.) He also says that of those 10 million cases, the fatality rate (CFR) is likely to be at least 2%, resulting in over 200,000 deaths.
This is insane scaremongering on a grand scale.
And it is easy to demonstrate this. Right now, as I write this, China (population 1.386 BILLION) has had a total of 81,054 cases. See here. 72,440 of those have recovered. There are 5,353 active cases. 1,845 of those are “serious.” There have been 3,261 deaths.
Deaths per day in China peaked at 150 on February 23. On March 21, there were 6 deaths. New cases peaked at 14,108 on February 12. On March 21 there were 46.
Significantly, there have been ZERO new cases reported in Wuhan for the 4th day in a row.
Inescapable conclusion. The epidemic has nearly run its course in China.
Let’s do a little simple math. Total deaths in a country with a population of 1.386 BILLION will almost certainly be under 10,000, perhaps under 5,000. Total cases will probably be less than 100,000.
Why in the world would anyone believe that total deaths in a county with a population of 328 million will approach 200,000? For that to happen, there would have to be over 20 times the deaths in a population that is one-fourth the size.
Why in the world would anyone believe that total cases in a county with a population of 328 million will approach 10 million? For that to happen, there would have to be 100 times the cases in a population that is one-fourth the size.
________________
*I don’t know what JVL means by Barry’s limit of 200,000 deaths. Jim Thibodeau believes there will be over 200,000 deaths, not I. I believe there will be a fraction (probably a very tiny fraction) of 60,000 deaths, in other words, far fewer than the deaths caused by the flu last year.
Colossal scale? How many people read this blog?
Do you have a point Jim? If so, perhaps you should attempt to make it. Show me wrong. To do that you will have to refute one or more of my points.
Do you believe the virus has not peaked in China? If so, what is your evidence for that?
Do you believe the US will have 20 times the deaths and 100 times the cases even though we have less than one-fourth the population? What is your evidence for that?
BTW, readers will probably notice I let JVL get away with estimating the fatality rate at 2%, which is almost certainly nearly double the actual rate. If that turns out the be the case, my conclusions are even more solid.
There have been reports that the reason the cases in Wuhan have stopped is because the CCP (Chinese Communist Party) has stopped testing.
Suspicious how quickly it just stopped.
You’re hanging supposition on the CCP’s data….tenuous at best.
That said, death rate will probably turn out to be in the 1% range. Worse than influenza but no where near the 3% seen in Italy.
It’s not yet clear whether or not the hunkering down will indeed bend the curve but again I’m optimistic that its working. Overall the total excess deaths in the US will be in the 10K range not in the 100K range.
Latemarch,
We can’t have it both ways. The Chinese data is the bees knees when it shows an apocalypse; it is suspect when it shows improvement. But I take your point. The Chicoms are liars of epic proportions. On this, however, I tend to think they are telling the truth. They know they are under intense scrutiny from the entire world. For that reason (and not because I think they are trustworthy), I tend to believe these numbers.
That’s for the U.S. alone
We just now hit 416 covid-19 deaths in the United States according to: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
Where was the panic at 12,000 to 61,000 regular flu deaths?
Barry you missed the joke. He isn’t scaremongering on a “colossal scale”. Even if he were scaremongering, which assumes facts not in evidence, he would be doing so here on a small blog. Not colossal scale.
I do believe the media is inciting panic but that doesn’t make the virus any less serious but the media is definitely blowing this up a lot more than it should be
I can name no one that has survived but I can name all the people that died from it
There’s never any news on recovery there’s always news about death how infectious it is how terrible it is it’s 30 times more likely to do this it’s 10 times more likely to be bad
Two people of died in Arizona and that’s all you hear about apparently nobody has recovered even though we found out that a great deal of many people are Asymptomatic
All I have to say is everybody needs to be careful wash your hands be courteous to others and stop trying to murder people over toilet paper because the media scared me into thinking that if you catch this disease you’re going to die
To Jim
Shut Barry down. If everything you saying is wrong simply cut and paste it off the Internet and show him he’s wrong.
There is a fine line between people dismissing it and panic seekers and the panic seekers need to stop
A lot of people playing this down are still taking all the same precautions to make sure nobody gets sick
And I’ll tell you this right now if things get any worse over this stupid disease, and panic continues to go out of control, and our economy crashes over this crap, I am 100% certain that a home invasion over the food and toilet paper you’ve hoarded is far worse for you health then the disease that cause it
If every thing he is say is wrong
Saying screw auto correct
Btw just saw your reply so scratch mine
@AaronS1978: I don’t have to make any arguments that will just be ignored, when I can just wait several months and the numbers will speak for themselves.
The immune system has no ‘purpose’. 🙂
The human brain ‘generates’ mathematics for no reason. 🙂
Sometimes the human brain gets bored an generates a ‘self’ (for no reason). Brains do not want to feel lonely. 🙂 They know them-selves.
Jim Thibodeau @1:
“How many people read this blog?”
Good question. Dunno. 🙂
Alexa rank:
EN:………..220,812…..1%
TO:………423,953….1%
UD:………520,093…..1%
SW:………764,857…..1%
PT:…….2,993,448…..3%
TSZ:….5,435,694….6%
PS:…. [still off radar] 🙂
There is no intelligence in ‘nature’, that is why we need the best science to fight against a tiny virus. 🙂
Jim
“Barry you missed the joke.”
Yes, I missed the joke. If it were just him and just on this site, it might even be funny. Fact is, JVL’s scaremongering is puny compared to some, such as those who predicted deaths in the millions just in this country. Not a laughing matter.
Jawa, I know what most of the abbreviations mean but not all. Would you please spell them out once?
Thanks.
Jawa, you should compare that to the big evolution sites, like evolution.berkeley.edu, or Nature. All those sites you mentioned have something to do with intelligent design, pro or con, but interest in that collapsed 98% after Dover. Searches for evolution are 100 times higher, google says.
OK, I feel like I’ve spent all day on this site, I’ve got to stop and go do life stuff for a while.
Jim,
“I don’t have to make any arguments . . .”
Nonsense. You are advocating policy positions NOW based on your analysis of the data. You have a moral duty to support your advocacy with cogent arguments — or shut up altogether, which we both know you are not going to do. That you suggest that you may choose to shirk that duty speaks volumes in itself.
@20 Jim Thibodea
And contributed nothing. 🙂
RUN ITS COURSE? Did you first read about this today? It took a dictatorship invoking a state-wide lockdown to end transmission of this virus in HUbei. If such measures are not introduced a virs will only “run it’s course” when the number of susceptible hosts in reduced (by death and aquired immunity) that it’s hard for the virus to jump. China will probably have to start lock downs in other provnces now, as it will start to import cases from Europe and the US and so many people are not resistant to this.
For some context, >3 000 of the deaths occurred in Hubie province with a population about 6 times less than the US (59 million). So, those very draconian measures kept the number down to the equivalent of 20 000 deaths in the US. But the US has been slow to enact measures and the virus is no longer localised as ti was in China. It’s hard to see how the US could avoid have may more times infections than China did in its first pulse (though China may well suffer more epidemic waves in the future too).
Jim Thib
How many read this blog?
One too many, at least/
Jim Thibodeau, I know this may be hard for your brain to grasp, since I’m using words that don’t appear on the bumper sticker slogans you salivate over. Before a hypothesis can become a scientific theory, it must be seen and the results replicated. It’s called the Scientific Method, which has never happened with macroevolution. Science is not about fact, but laws, theories and hypothesis.
As for COVID-19, the flu is more deadly than the virus, by far. It is not a particularly lethal virus to begin with and the new mutation has not suddenly made COVID far more deadly than it was. Since North Korea started mass testing, they find that 99% of people who test positive develop mild to moderate symptoms. 1% develops severe symptoms.
@24 Belfast:
My thoughts.
Maybe Jim Thibodeau should go visit his macro-evolved auto-matic mom. 🙂
That is the darwinian thing to do.
Folks, there is another thread here on a material factor being overlooked. We have in hand a treatment that has been so promising that many physicians are taking efficacy as a given and are prescribing off label, so to speak; I have seen odds that not 1 in 10k cases would the results be by chance for the key cocktail, hydrochloroquine and z-pac. The potential to produce dozens of millions of doses per week is well in hand, as this is a generic long since. As of this time, the likelihood of a breakout of serious cases to cause deaths on the relevant scale is now low. If we mange the pandemic promptly and prudently. We must also balance averting an economic downspiral into depression. But, we cannot treat this as nothing, no more than the common cold or flu; a highly contagious, deadly virus to which we have minimal immunity as it is novel. KF
JT, your persistent oppositional presence itself shows you know this blog has an influence effect that you seek to counter; from the days of Samballat et al, belittling is one of those ways to oppose. Whether or not you like it, we are here to discuss a serious matter and issues connected to the design view of reality are highly relevant. Indeed, that bleeds over into the issues of first duties and policy making, also media and education; first duties directly connects to rational responsibility and human freedom thus the nature of the roots of reality. There is a common pattern of issues at work that is all too familiar to us. KF
Hey Barry,
I hope that this is not true….but
China stopped testing
In favor of Barry’s OP is Evidence Over Hysteria by Aaron Ginn a numbers guy.
Best tracking site I’ve found to date here.
Sorry, link broken trying again here
Barry Arrington @18:
Alexa rank:
EN:………..223,333…..1%……/Evolution News [TO, UD]
TO:………424,320….1%……/Talk Origins [EN]
UD:………550,194…..1%……/Uncommon Descent [EN, TSZ]
SW:………765,278…..1%……/SandWalk Dr L. Moran [UD]
PT:…….2,994,761…..3%……/Panda’s Thumb [UD]
TSZ:….5,435,542….6%……/The Skeptical Zone [UD, PS]
PS:…. [still off radar]……/Peaceful Science [TSZ]
Shown in [] is the list of other websites of this list that are somehow related to the given website according to Alexa stats
The % are based on the top 100M active websites
Jim Thibodeau @19:
I don’t think I understand your point well enough to comment on it.
Please, would you mind to clarify it?
Thanks.
Jim Thibodeau @19:
“you should compare that to the big evolution sites, like evolution.berkeley.edu, or Nature”
1. What do you mean by “that”?
2. What kind of comparison are you having in mind? Alexa stats?
3. Your example “evolution.berkeley.edu” does not seem to be analyzed by Alexa stats at least not the free Alexa stats that I have access to.
4. What Alexa stats analyzes is “berkeley.edu” which I would rather compare to other “.edu” websites.
5. See the post @33 addressed to BA and note the website acronyms listed within []. Those are other websites of this list that are somehow related to the given website according to Alexa stats.
6. Your examples don’t seem to meet the requirement described in the preceding point 5.
7. As I have explained before to other folks here, you’re trying to compare apples and alligators.
Please, note that the information Alexa rank stats provide does not tell us much about the quality of the information posted in the referenced websites. However, some of us may find it interesting.
As an analogy, fMRI and EEG results don’t reveal our thoughts, plans, desires, beliefs. fMRI and EEG results are simply pieces of information used to resolve the easy problem of consciousness.
Next please?
🙂
Barry, people are right not to trust China’s statistics: Rewriting the History of COVID-19. Heather Zeiger: Making the government the improbable hero of the tale. But the epidemic may well be petering out there anyway. Most statistics worldwide are pure guff or scaremongering and many fail to capture significant facts.
Dr. John Ioannidis is quite right to be concerned about the collateral damage of COVID craziness. Many of the useful things that won’t be happening may be necessary for someone’s health, safety, or well-being.
Canada’s death toll stands at 13, mainly elderly and infirm, people but the panic meter is through the roof.
Jonathan Bartlett thinks we will never go back to the pre-COVID-19 workplace: The virus forced us to realize: Staying together apart has never been so easy
@35 Jawa:
Materialism’s nightmare. Thank you Jawa 🙂
Thank you Jawa.
Truthfreedom,
“Materialism’s nightmare.” – yes, I agree.
Off topic: are you the writer Edward Feser in the blog you link to?
Barry Arrington,
You’re very welcome!
Latemarch: That said, death rate will probably turn out to be in the 1% range. Worse than influenza but no where near the 3% seen in Italy.
In the USA, Influenza death rate of confirmed cases runs at about 10%. The CDC makes an estimation (re: guess) of the actual cases to get the low, low death rate. We must compare apples to apples in CV19 analysis. So far, the death rate of confirmed cases of CV19 in USA (1.18%) is much lower than the confirmed cases of influenza (10%).
Since my post was an impetuous for this thread I’d just like to ask:
Which values (i.e. numbers) in my post do you find at fault? My use of 2% for the mortality rate was based on the discussion on worldometers.info.
AND I was just responding to a reply from Barry, I wasn’t trying to “scare monger “. I’d rather discuss the data.
JVL
Did you even read the post JVL? Because if you did, you wouldn’t have to ask that question.
Liar. Predicting 200,000 deaths when the actual number will almost certainly be less than 5,000 is the definition of scaremongering.
Barry, do you want to adress my post in #23, I think it makes it clear where your calculations are going wrong. Less than 5,000 is extraordinarily optimistic estimate.
AN, are you factoring in the likely impact of an effective treatment? Etc? Models and scenarios are one thing, actual reality another. Where, we have strong indicators, not just that there are effective treatments likely to come in fairly rapidly but that a high fraction of actual as opposed to serious cases are mild or even “asymptomatic.” That means that a good part of this is that the matter is novelty, which always amplifies perceived risk. KF
Of course our responses change the outcome. The are no good pharmaceutical responses now, and the evidence for chloroquine is quite poor (a badly controlled open label trial on a small sample).
Perhaps the treatments will limit the disease, but should understand what will happen if we don’t fight it. And also be aware that physical distancing and hand washing are much more supported than any pharmaceutical intervention right now.
@47 Angraecum
Who are we to counteract ‘natural’ selection?
There is no apples to apples comparison available. The CDC estimates because hardly anyone tests for influenza. The test is easy and readily available but why run up the bill when everyone already knows what it is. That’s why the confirmed is so high because so few doctors bother to confirm.
Stop and consider. Do you really think that 10% of people that catch the flu die?
Jawa
Has he commented anything on topic? And, no. He is not Feser. Feser is a respected philosopher, even though I disagree with him often. There is no way that TF could be respected as a philosopher. Unless he only posts here when he is drunk. 🙂
KF@42, I honestly hope that chloroquine proves to be effective. But my fear is that Trump will ease isolation rules once he announces the availability of this as a routine treatment. Long before it’s efficacy has been demonstrated.
You have to marry your first cousin and posit a Designer mimic to be respected. But respect from st**id adults that love creation tales is not worth having.
“The pandemic is accelerating,” he said. “It took 67 days from the first reported case to reach the first 100,000 cases, 11 days for the second 100,000 and just four days for the third 100,000.”
RH7, nope, as discussed on analysis of a graph in my chloroquine thread, epidemics spread locally on contact forces so we are seeing multiple outbreaks, each subject to saturation. The issue is to use distancing and emerging effective treatments to reduce spreading, growth and fatal outcomes. KF
PS: I think we need to ponder sigmoid, cumulative effect saturating growth curves. Here is a good start to thinking about trends https://mindmatters.ai/2019/10/dont-leave-home-without-these-three-curves/
PPS: Hey, let me clip JB:
Info of use: The US is not the next Italy:
@EdGeorge Trump’s irresponsible pushing of those drugs has already caused shortages for patients with lupus, R.A, and other diseases, who need them, in some places.
@58 Jim Thibodeau
There are no diseases for the naturalist, because disease means labelling something as ‘wrong’.
But according to ‘naturalism’, Stuff Happens, nothing is good/ bad. For ‘nature’ a tumor is equally valid as a healthy individual.
Found this today from Motus A.D.
Another fail.
Chloroquine has already proven to be effective. Coronavirus patient says chloroquine saved his life
The thing be debated now is whether or not going back to normal sooner, rather than later, will be better or worse. As in will more people die non-virus related deaths if the economy tanks than the people that will die of the virus.
Acartia Eddie:
TF makes more sense than you ever have.
JT (& attn EG),
In re, 58:
Did you observe that 3 million tabs were donated by Bayer on or about the day Mr Trump brought this up? Further, that there is significant potential or actual manufacturing capacity? I find it sad that you dismiss promotion of a point of definite, credible hope as “irresponsible.” KF
PS: Here is a life that may well have been saved because of that promotion:
Now, you tell me just why this man did not “need” the drug that he says he heard of because of the news buzz and which he credits with saving his life, even by moving urgently before structured double blind tests etc.
And BTW, testing is starting in NY tomorrow.
Jim Thibodeau @58:
Did you miss the posts @34 & 35?
🙂
Trouble at the top:
https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2020/03/dr-fauci-explains-why-he-doesnt-correct-trump-during-press-conferences/
https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/03/were-in-a-public-health-crisis-wheres-the-cdc/
JVL, there have in fact been studies in Australia, France and China which have a consistent positive outcome. Particularly, regarding the cocktail with z-pac, an antibiotic for bronchitis. Further, there is longstanding evidence that Chloroquine has antiviral effects, including enough to identify mechanisms. Indeed, it has a wide ranging antiviral effect on a fairly large number of viruses including a close relative to this virus, SARS. That is already sufficient evidence that there is good reason to already use the drug in cases of the alternative being pretty stark; as we saw just above. Tests are in train now, and it is being used in other jurisdictions. The declaration that Mr Trump’s claim is “false” is irresponsible. Yes, one may modify it, as degree of proof or warrant is a delicate and complicated subject in a scientific-statistical context, but that is a very different thing from being “false.” KF
PS: FYI, kindly see this OP: https://uncommondescent.com/ud-newswatch-highlights/breaking-is-the-1934-bayer-anti-malarial-chloroquine-a-potential-covid-19-breakthrough-treatment/ and note the discussion chain.
As kairosfocus @ 67 pointed out, COVID-19 is a close relative to SARS. It’s actually called SARS 2 and it happens to be from the same family of the strain we’ve already been exposed to. When a virus of the same family enters a human host that has already been exposed, the immune system recognizes it and deals with it quickly. We have been studying viruses for a long time and know exactly what happens when an incident like COVID-19 occurs after going through COVID-2. It will be less lethal than influenza. There has never been a single instance where 2 viruses from the same family have reacted differently. Viruses are predictable.
KF: If Chloroquine works then the tests now being done will show that. But, at the moment, the FDA has NOT approved it for fighting COVID-19 and to say it has is not true.
JVL, chloroquine has been and is being used to fight covid 19. Doctors are NOT waiting on the FDA, nor should they. And it works.
JVL, my first problem is why extensive studies on and approval of Hydrochloroquine by itself and in cocktails were not carried out given its demonstrated efficacy against viruses of both RNA and DNA, lipid coated and protein coat only varieties was shown and published in the literature 15 years ago. That speaks to a serious failure of regulatory agency, already. Next, we are in the face of a pandemic with sobering potential for loss of life and damage to the global economy . . . depression numbers have been put on the table as possible outcomes. Against that backdrop, studies in several countries already point to credible high effectiveness. That the US FDA et al have been tardy to make initial emergency approval speaks further volumes on regulatory failure. I note that doctors and hospitals have on their own initiative or at request of patients looking at stark alternatives, begun to prescribe the drug on its own and/or in cocktails; with good apparent effect. Yesterday, it was in the news that major trials are beginning today in the US epicentre, NY. I trust that appropriate fast tracking of such studies and approvals will follow, running in a parallel track to emergency, stark alternative use. We know, that days count with epidemics running as 2 – 3 day doubling time. KF
BR, the statistics in hand by and large track cases serious enough to make it into the record. By that yardstick, serious cases of the yearly ‘flu are highly lethal, especially to older people and/or for those with preconditions. So, less lethal than serious cases of ‘flu does not imply not alarmingly lethal. Yes, we have become used to significant numbers of ‘flu deaths per year; that is itself something to be addressed with urgency and seriousness beyond the hit or miss flu shot. That means we need serious efforts to develop, approve and use antivirals, especially widely effective antivirals. In that context, we do need to take seriously another emerging highly lethal viral pandemic. At the same time, we must be prudent to avert triggering needless deep recession. KF
F/N my antivirus just popped up with a cv19 alert.
@74 Kairosfocus:
You mean your physical antivirus (inmune system)?
Or the one made of software, the result of using human minds? 🙂
@40 Jawa:
No, I am not Edward Feser.
He is a serious man. 🙂
I link to his blog because it is very interesting.
@KF
So you’re not even considering the possibility that medical experts and scientists in this field may know things that you don’t.
Medical experts used to endorse smoking 😉
What’s much more likely is that no drug company did the necessary tests to prove the efficacy and safety of the drug. Regulatory agencies don’t just study whatever drug they want to. They evaluate proposals to use certain drugs for certain things according to established protocols.
‘Scientists’ used to said that homosexuality is a mental problem. They were forced to change the DSM 🙂
*used to say*.
From the FDA
American consumers benefit from having access to the safest and most advanced pharmaceutical system in the world. The main consumer watchdog in this system is FDA’s Center for Drug Evaluation and Research (CDER).
The center’s best-known job is to evaluate new drugs before they can be sold. CDER’s evaluation not only prevents quackery, but also provides doctors and patients the information they need to use medicines wisely. The center ensures that drugs, both brand-name and generic, work correctly and that their health benefits outweigh their known risks.
Drug companies seeking to sell a drug in the United States must first test it. The company then sends CDER the evidence from these tests to prove the drug is safe and effective for its intended use. A team of CDER physicians, statisticians, chemists, pharmacologists, and other scientists reviews the company’s data and proposed labeling. If this independent and unbiased review establishes that a drug’s health benefits outweigh its known risks, the drug is approved for sale. The center doesn’t actually test drugs itself, although it does conduct limited research in the areas of drug quality, safety, and effectiveness standards.
Before a drug can be tested in people, the drug company or sponsor performs laboratory and animal tests to discover how the drug works and whether it’s likely to be safe and work well in humans. Next, a series of tests in people is begun to determine whether the drug is safe when used to treat a disease and whether it provides a real health benefit.
So what drug companies have done tests for the efficacy of the drugs on this disease at a particular dosage?
Blockquote fail. First sentence and last sentence are mine.
For what it’s worth, some economists like Dean Baker have complained that this is a capitalistic system that doesn’t work well because it depends on companies deciding what drugs to pursue. And what would work better would be if the government funded all drug research, and then licensed the compounds for manufacture.
I’m sympathetic to that argument, but that’s not the system we have right now. Right now the FDA makeS decisions about drugs proposed and tested by outsiders, not proposed by itself.
No ‘health’ for the darwinist. A tumour and a healthy individual are the same to ‘nature’. Only a rational mind can understand purpose (i. e. ‘health is good’).
@Truthfreedom, your #16,
‘There is no intelligence in ‘nature’, that is why we need the best science to fight against a tiny virus. ????’
You think that because you haven’t asked the CONCEPT of RANDOM CHANCE, if It wouldn’t mind helping you out with the science of things ; a kind of RETRO-ENGINEERING for Dummies from the fountainhead of unintelligence, so to speak. I expect it would be only too willing to help out.
Among its myriad polymath abilities, I’m sure it is just as polyglot as is necessary to answer our questions intelligibly…. let me re-phrase that…. ummmh…
Jim Thibodeau
The willingness, nay eagerness, of materialists to snap to attention and salute every single diktat of the experts never ceases to amaze.
“The experts have spoken” they are constantly howling. “We must submit to their sublime, godlike understanding.”
Never mind that, as has already been pointed out, experts on healthcare once endorsed smoking. Never mind that experts on public health policy once endorsed eugenics. Never mind . . . actually I will stop there, because the list is endless.
Go ahead Jim. Keep on doing your best lemming impression. The rest of us will think for ourselves.
Jim
So Jim is a socialist too. I’m stunned. Not only is he enthralled by the “experts,” he thinks “more government bureaucracy” is the answer to every important policy question. Because everyone knows the government always does it better. That is why the post office is the envy of the world. God help us.
@85 Axel:
Reverse-engineering for dummies. Gotta love it 🙂
According to darwinists, scientists are stupid. 🙂
Barry, you really need to stop putting erroneous words in my mouth. It doesn’t make your case look good.
And Dean Baker’s idea would by definition not be socialist, because it would be licensing the drugs out to private industry, which of course doesn’t exist in a socialist government. If you’re going to lie about what I believe, at least come up with some internally consistent lies.
I’m going to take some time away from this site. I will be checking in with Johns Hopkins’ coronavirus figures, and unfortunately they’re doing what I expect them to do.
@ Jim Thibodeau, thanks for your no-contributions. 🙂
Truthfreedom @76,
Thank you for the information.
My tremendous cultural ignorance was revealed again: I don’t recall ever hearing about that guy before I opened your link.
🙂
Jim Thibodeau @19:
Did you miss the posts @34, 35 & 65?
🙂
PS. Note t hat this is a reminder for the anonymous readers of this thread.
According to Johns Hopkins covid 19 has a 22% + death rate: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/
17,240 deaths out of 395,647 known cases.
However, we really do NOT know the denominator so that 22% is bound to be lower.
Can we please have the edit function back? I did the math wrong. 4.3%
Alexa ranks
EN:………..224,082…..1%……/Evolution News [TO, UD]
TO:………443,404….1%……/Talk Origins [EN]
UD:………563,470…..1%……/Uncommon Descent [EN, TSZ]
SW:………765,523…..1%……/SandWalk Dr L. Moran [UD]
PT:…….2,995,644…..3%……/Panda’s Thumb [UD]
TSZ:….5,435,611….6%……/The Skeptical Zone [UD, PS]
PS:…. [still off radar]……/Peaceful Science [TSZ]
Shown in [] is the list of other websites of this list that are somehow related to the given website according to Alexa stats
The % are based on the top 100M active websites
Alexa links:
…………………EN……………….TO………………UD……………SW…………..PT…………….TSZ………………PS
EN:…………..X…………………X…………………..X…………………………………………………………………………………….
TO:…………..X…………………X……………………………………………………………………………………………………………
UD:…………..X………………………………………..X………………………………………………………….X……………………..
SW:……………………………………………………….X…………………X……………………………………………………………..
PT:………………………………………………………….X…………………………………..X……………………………………………
TSZ:………………………………………………………..X…………………………………………………………X………………….X
PS:…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………X………………….X
…………………EN……………….TO………………UD……………SW…………..PT…………….TSZ………………PS
I don’t understand how Alexa website relations are determined. It’s probably obvious, but I don’t see it.
The sudden rank ups/downs are also intriguing. SW and TSZ had that situation recently.
JT, who do you think carried out the peer reviewed published studies recently and 15 years ago? Duppies? I suggest you read here before replying, including looking at the linked papers: https://uncommondescent.com/ud-newswatch-highlights/breaking-is-the-1934-bayer-anti-malarial-chloroquine-a-potential-covid-19-breakthrough-treatment/ KF
PS: Basic rule of argument, following Ari in The Rhetoric Bk I Ch 2. Three basic appeals, to emotions, to authority/credibility, to facts & logic. Emotions are no better than underlying perceptions and judgement. No authority is better than his/her facts, reasoning and framework of assumptions. It is balance on the merits of facts and reasoning with due attention to frameworks of assumptions that counts. In the just linked, the first source is a leading French Expert, whose findings are all over the French language internet. Similar studies are there in Australia and China.
PPS: Here is FDA on Chloroquinone:
Not, this is snake oil.
But at the same time, “promising” would seem to be the indication already, given existing, recent and longstanding results. Including, a context where antivirals and potential antivirals should have been seriously investigated post-SARS. Hence, my earlier comments.
PPPS: A March 16 report from China:
How often do we see that word, BREAKTHROUGH in journal article titles?
F/N: An English language report on the French trials:
Not exactly shilling for snake oil.
(Maybe we need to remember that French researchers were co-discoverers of the HIV virus.)
F/N: US FDA again, on early stage “compassionate use” approval:
Notice the date, March 19th, in the USA. As in, Thursday last.
We need to ask some pointed questions regarding news coverage and slanting.
KF
We also need to ask some pointed questions about how much influence medically-unqualified politicians have over what should and should not be made available to the general population without adequate testing. We already have one death attributable to incautious speculation about the efficacy of chloroquine as a therapeutic agent. We don’t need any more.
F/N: Since we wish to hear experts:
KF
Sev, I suggest, that there are more than enough expertise and credible fact on the table as pointed out. KF
Sev,
You appear to be alluding to the guy who self medicated from his fish tank and implying that is some sort of exemplar by which to judge the efficacy and safety of the drug.
Tell me I am wrong.
If you can’t, one wonders if you can you sink any lower?
Readers: See here for the story to which Sev alluded.
Barry,
21 Million Chinese Cellphone Users Disappear in Three Months of Pandemic
Things may not be what they seem in China.
BA,
Back in my uni days, we could tell when 1st year Med students had their first pharmacology lecture. They were sobered by the prof’s warning: drugs are poisons in small doses. (Then, there was that first anatomy lab . . .)
I think this is background — and BTW, it means there should not be a shortage here, which was another complaint:
This of course underscores the point on drug toxicity, and on how careful one must be with any medication.
There is no reasonable connexion between highlighting a hopeful treatment for a pandemic using a substance common enough and cheap enough that it is used to treat aquariums and someone foolishly ignoring common sense about diagnosing and treating serious illnesses.
That some . . . including some in the media . . . draw or suggest the connexion by invidious association speaks saddening volumes.
What is warranted, is that we need to have a sober minded discussion about health, disease, treatment and more.
KF
Barry
“You appear to be alluding to the guy who self medicated from his fish tank and implying that is some sort of exemplar by which to judge the efficacy and safety of the drug.”
Barry are you saying that I need to stop snorting hand sanitizer?
Vivid
The person who took aquarium chloroquine and died, counts as a Darwin Award.
ET
Someone ingests anything you buy from a fish store was never intended to live long., I’m surprised the person made it to 60.
Vivid
Sev,
Your hatred* is causing you to do hateful things. Take stock. Do better.
___________
*And don’t try to tell me that your antics that got called out above stemmed from anything other than Trump Derangement Syndrome, a species of hatred.
Latemarch,
You may be right, and my confidence in the WHO to do basic diligence may be (probably is) misplaced.
Vivid,
And glue and paint and . . . 🙂
Barry
What we are witnessing in our media is beyond belief. For instance I was literally watching an interview with the FDA commissioner talking about a subject regarding drugs that might be helpful and being texted a report by news sources that were totally at odds as to what I was hearing coming out of his mouth!! It’s like “ don’t believe your own eyes” These people are wicked and the hatred for Trump is at insane levels.
Vivid
We need more tests! So they can keep the body count scare going.
It looks like the Mediterranean diet doesn’t do anything to stop covid 19. The hugging and kissing culture needs to stop, temporarily at least, or it will wipe itself out.
Vivid:
Even goldfish and guppies? Were you ever in college? 😉
COVID-19 cases surpassed 400,000 worldwide on Tuesday, while U.S. cases topped 50,000 as the virus spreads more rapidly across the world.
400,000 out of 7,800,000,000
LateMarch,
Regarding the article on Chinese cell phone user numbers, shouldn’t that title have read “Chinese cell phone accounts”? Did China admit that those dead accounts were due to dead users?
I read the article, and it tries to make the case that cell phone accounts are always tied to real people and they can’t just ditch or cancel them. But any database that has been in use for any length of time has stale data in it that occasionally gets purged. Also governments releasing data occasionally change the definition of something, which can suddenly change a released statistic.
The article does not dig deeper than the surface statistic. Things could be *that* bad, but I want more evidence.
OK Gov. Kevin Stitt on Tuesday ordered non-essential businesses to shut down and directed elderly and medically vulnerable people to stay indoors until April 30 as the number of coronavirus cases in the state continued to climb.
The number of cases climbed to 109 on Tuesday, but because of a shortage of testing supplies and few tests being administered, Stitt said he believes the actual number is closer to 500.
“They’re going to get into the thousands,” he warned.
Officials with Beaumont said its eight Michigan hospitals have “some ventilator capacity” but are nearing that capacity.
“We have been actively transferring COVID-19 patients within our system to other Beaumont hospitals, as appropriate, if one hospital has more capacity than another. However, across our system, we are facing limitations and nearing capacity with our staffing, personal protective equipment and mechanical ventilators,” Beaumont Health Chief Operating Officer Carolyn Wilson said. “We are taking steps to increase our capacity, such as converting some of our operating rooms into intensive care units.”
EDTA,
Agree.
It’s just an isolated data point. Uncertain as to what it means. Eventually there will be other data points that will hopefully allow the construction of a picture of what actually happened.
Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms (D) said Tuesday that the city’s intensive care units (ICUs) are at capacity and warned that hospitals in the area could also soon be maximized amid the coronavirus pandemic.
“I suspect that at some point soon our hospitals may get near capacity,” Bottoms told a local CBS affiliate.
“While there are still beds available … our ICU units are at capacity. This is why we have gone a step further in Atlanta and asked people to please stay home,”
Newly released Louisiana Department of Health figures from Tuesday evening show that ICU bed capacity is lacking across the state. But it is particularly concerning in Orleans, Jefferson, St. Bernard and Plaquemines parishes, where coronavirus cases have been clustered and where just 15% of adult ICU beds are still available. In those parishes, there are 429 adult ICU beds total, while 65 are free.
Louisiana’s COVID-19 death toll climbed to 46 on Tuesday, and the number of known coronavirus cases reached 1,338. Of those patients, 20% were hospitalized and 94 required ventilators.
KF@110, interesting link about the use of chloroquine in the aquarium. It reminded me of a recent trend to use fluconazole, a fungicide, to control bryopsis, a type of macro algae, in the saltwater aquarium hobby.
The point is that drugs used for one purpose often have other effects that they were not designed for. Viagra is another one.
Southwest Georgia’s Dougherty County continued to report the highest per capita numbers, according to the state Department of Public Health.
Dr. Steven Kitchen, chief medical officer at Phoebe Putney Memorial Hospital in Albany, said during a televised briefing Tuesday that the hospital’s three ICUs are filled and the hospital improvised a fourth 10-bed unit for non-COVID-19 patients. He said that unit is full too, and that on Monday, doctors had to discharge ICU patients to make room for five patients with worsening conditions.
“We continue to see an increase in the number of COVID-19 patients in our care,” Kitchen said. “We’re quickly approaching the point of maximum capacity. We need a relief valve.”
R7, thank you for the updates. They are clearly showing that this is not just another flu. What scares me is that if our process is similar to China, we are still in the early stages of exponential growth. And the actions that China took to battle the virus were far greater than what we have.
In Ontario the government has ordered all non-essential businesses closed. Thank God that they consider liquor and beer stores to be essential services. 🙂
This does not demonstrate what you may have hoped it would. Almost all of the cases in China were in Wuhan, a city with a population of only about 10 million. It’s not likely that less than 3% of the US will be infected.
Since you wrote this post on the 22nd, the number of known cases in the US has moved from 33,000 to 55,000. About a 33% day-on-day growth rate. If that rate was to continue, it would take a little more than a month to get to the point that known cases are at 3% of the US population.
It’s hard to know how many cases are not detected at the moment, I can’t imagine it will be possible for less than 3% of the population to acquire the virus, but it is still possible to lessen the impact of the epidemic, if people can work together to break its transmission.
EG
“Thank God that they consider liquor and beer stores to be essential services. ????”
Well then by golly “pass me a corona”
Vivid
Bob Ryan,
Where did you get this information from. None of it is correct.
SARS-CoV-2 is related to SARS, but not all that closely (it is, like most epidemic strains, a jump from animals to humans). There is no evidence that SARS produces immunity to SARS-CoV-2, and no reason to think it could. Even then, very few people were infected with SARS (about 10,000 ), so it would be no help.
It’s not true that viruses of the same family always produce immunity to each other. The process fo developing Flu vaccines should make this clear, as these are the same strains of virus every year, but nevertheless need to be adjusted to keep up with mutations in spike proteins and the strain dynamics in a given season.
It’s really not a good time to be spreading misinformation, so I encourage you to be a bit more skeptical about the information you share.
OM, Though I do not endorse the ideas that there is existing herd immunity to some extent, it is true that this is described sometimes as SARS2. It is a related virus, but obviously given cellular mechanisms RNA viruses will mutate more rapidly than DNA ones, essentially at every individual reproduction event. Further to this, it is in the literature that there are already two strains, L and S, that can be separately caught. That raises the issue that the Spanish Flu event of 1918 had more than one wave and more than one strain, with the second apparently the most dangerous. In that light, it seems that we urgently need effective life-saving treatments and vaccinations, likely not just now but we may be seeing onward outbreaks in coming months or years. This is going to be a break in history, I think. Going forward, digital work, digital education, digital teleconferencing, digital interaction and digital cash are going to become far more established. Unfortunately, that means that digital surveillance will also go way up. The suggestions that in China cell phone accounts are used as a sort of police monitored social register, coupled to location-tracking ability, points to a possibility for very dangerous spying and control. Those are further issues and potential dangers we need to address going forward. KF
Vivid,
Anyone who has ever received a text from their wife saying “Rodney Strong Alexander Valley, STAT!” knows just how essential those stores are.
KF
As the article I posted today notes, in Singapore the government is enforcing isolation by requiring people periodically to click an app on their phones that tells the government where they are. Sobering.
@135 Orthomyxo
?? Neither is there evidence to the contrary.
Right now, little amount of evidence and a lot of speculation.
Very darwinian.
BA, very interesting. KF
What is the difference between ‘natural’ vaccines (herd immunity) and man-made vaccines?
Naturalists, please? 🙂
TF
That is simple. ‘Natural’ vaccines are what nut-job anti-vaccers tout instead of real vaccines. Herd immunity occurs when the probability of a person who is not immune not becoming infected because the people they come in contact with on a daily basis are immune, either through vaccines or through having been infected and recovered. For herd immunity to be effective, between 80 and 90% of people in the population (some say higher) must have immunity. Since there are some in society who cannot receive vaccines, I would prefer to obtain herd immunity through mandatory vaccinations than through the death of thousands.
@142 Ed George
1. ‘Natural’ Herd Immunity: immune system only.
2. ‘Artificial’ Herd Immunity: immune system + brain input (studying, going to a lab, creating the vaccine, distributing it = collaborating with lots of other humans/brains…)
Am I right? 🙂
Latemarch: Do you really think that 10% of people that catch the flu die?
No. But that’s not the point. You said, “death rate will probably turn out to be in the 1% range.”
Based on what? Confirmed cases or all cases? We won’t ever know anything but confirmed cases, so you have to compare that with confirmed influenza cases. You cannot compare all flu infections with all CV19 infections because we don’t know how to estimate all CV19 cases, and probably won’t know the total cases of infection will have been after this is over, since most people will either show little to moderate symptoms and probably won’t get tested.
LM & M62, it looks like 10% is a ballpark estimate for number of people with significant complications and a list of well known factors. Those, of course, are the cases that come to medical attention in relevant ways. Problem is, to get an apples to apples comparison with CV19. However, we have enough to see that something that is novel, highly contagious and prone to complications will be dangerous. KF
480
Vividbleau
March 25, 2020 at 2:41 pm
I know we are all trying to get a handle on something that we will not know for months but here is some good news and let’s hope in continues.
In New York the governor said that original projections were hospitalizations would double every 2 days, on Monday the projections were every 3.4 days and Tuesday they are at 4.7 days. Quote “This is almost to good to be true” Let’s hope not
Vivid
Notice, fresh developments on chloroquine https://uncommondescent.com/ethics/hydrochloroquine-wars-2-a-ny-physician-speaks-of-hundreds-of-successful-patients-a-governor-bans-use-in-nevada/
Not true. A systematic study using blood not swabs will indicate what percentage of the population became infected. If organized it should be able to estimate the percentage of the population that came down with the virus even if they showed no symptoms. They could add a new sample each week to calculate the progression.
Would probably be expensive for an individual organization but if financed by the government, could be easily done.
Jerry, I agree that it would be of interest but I don’t know how good the data would be unless you selected the sample (people) randomly and made it mandatory.
@135 Orrhomyxo
I have something for you 🙂
@135 Orthomyxo
Orthomyxoviridae failure 🙂
I’ll admit I’m a little surprised that even this is showing some promise. But even these results are only showing antibodies against the S protein hinder infection of another virus in cell culture.
Coronaviruses don’t tend to produce lasting immune responses, so I still doubt any humans are immune due to SARS. And, of course, there are still only a few thousand people that were infected by SARS, so it would not make an appreciable difference of there were.
@172 Orthomyxo
It depends. There are lots of variables at work.
Other coronaviruses might have triggered immune responses capable of offering partial protection against the -19.
Given how common coronaviruses are, I have my doubts that all immune systems are completely naive.
I may be wrong of course.
Edit function please. 🙂
Link for my comment @154:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/25/health/coronavirus-immunity-
antibodies.html?0p19G=7900
This caught my eye:
Edit function back for Easter, please!
Trying again to post the link @154, @155:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/25/health/coronavirus-immunity-antibodies.html?0p19G=7900
Folks, if a sample can be reasonably reduced to the general population’s segments, then a sampling based blood sample approach will help us profile extent of infections; crucial for deeper understanding. I don’t know if we will be able to get tracking blood sampling. KF
TF, I suspect it may have been giving problems or is incompatible with an update for WP. Write comments in a text editor then copy-paste after proofing. And I know, inconvenient. KF
F/N:T Notice, two levels of sampling, Of population and then of contents of the blood. KF
@158 Kairosfocus: Thank you.
This thread aged well.
For the record, US passed 200k deaths and 7 million cases.
Trump said COVID-19 would be no worse than the flu and this site followed Trump as opposed to the experts.
If uncommondescent.com was wrong about this what else are they wrong about?
I wonder how many cases and how many deaths it will take for some to recognize that there is a problem and it is worse than the flu?
CDC recently updated estimated infection fatality rates for COVID. Here are the updated survival rates by age group:
0-19: 99.997%
20-49: 99.98%
50-69: 99.5%
70+: 94.6%
Vivid
Here in NZ where our government had a clear strategy based on advice from scientists, and with a prime minister prepared to be honest with the public and take the hard decisions, we have watched in horror the outcome of the failed leadership in the US. Surely, no one can now dispute the seriousness of the pandemic, and the tragic result of a government that would not listen to the scientists. (Although, according to the interview with Bob Woodward, Trump did believe the scientific advice he was getting but chose instead to mislead the public).
Sweden continues to have close to no deaths, since their height in April. Those 5,000,000 they were projected to have continues to remain under 6000 dead. They reached heard immunity.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/
Unless you thing the Swedes have all gone deaf, I think you mean herd immunity.
FWIW, I doubt they have reached herd immunity – I haven’t seen any evidence that they are anywhere near the proportion of immune people needed (which would probably be over 50%), and this story suggests they are a long way from it. In addition, if Sweden had achieved herd immunity, cases wouldn’t be increasing again.
Instead their low number of cases is because they have active control, through social distancing (not difficult for the average Swede) and track and trace.
BTW, here in Norway we also have close to no deaths, with only 270 deaths. And Finland? 343 deaths. Denmark? 649 deaths. Why focus on Sweden, which seems to be a failure relative to its neighbours?
Wow. DavidP is obviously clueless. UD has been following the advice of the experts. There are many articles saying how to fight and treat the disease.
And the flu without a flu vaccine would easily be as deadly as covid-19.
Also in the USA the President cannot command the States. The Governors have control of their respective States. Those who want to blame Trump are just ignorant.
Bob O’H: BTW, here in Norway we also have close to no deaths, with only 270 deaths. And Finland? 343 deaths. Denmark? 649 deaths. Why focus on Sweden, which seems to be a failure relative to its neighbours?
Exactly: lock-down hard and fast and leave it in place for enough time to reduce the number of active cases to very few.
Right, lock down hard and fast and watch as people die from starvation. Oh, what’s that? Don’t lock down that hard and fast? Let people shop and food processing places stay open? Are workers no longer part of the society that we need to protect?
This is stupid. We could easily fight this virus with mere nutrition.
ET
Then why is the CDC a federal department?
Mac and cheese:
That has nothing to do with what you are responding to. Clearly you have mental issues.
Also in the USA the President cannot command the States. The Governors have control of their respective States. Those who want to blame Trump are just ignorant.
We just saw this play out when Trump wanted to order everyone back to work. The Governors when ape and set the record straight. Their States are for them to run. The Governors are the people responsible for all of the deaths. They sent sick elderly back to nursing homes. Trump didn’t do that.
ET
Please grow up and act like an adult.
The federal government have numerous authorities during a health crisis. These include things like restricting inter-state traffic and distribution of PPE, vaccines, etc. Regardless, Trump has never been shy about grabbing authority in areas where he does not have any.
Mac and cheese:
Wow. Look at the childish crap I am responding to. Your childish quote-mine is duly noted. Grow up, loser.
And the Governors are still responsible for their constituents. And people are still responsible for their actions.
Spoken like a child. Grow up, already.