If we take the CFR for COVID-19 to be 2% . . . it’s a low estimate . . . in order to exceed Barry‘s limit* of 200,000 deaths in the US there would have to be over 10 million cases in the US. Wikipedia says the 2019 estimated population of the US is about 328 million so that means about 3% of the population would have to be diagnosed. It’s impossible to say, now, of course, but I’d be inclined to think that it’s fairly likely that 3% of the US population will get infected. We’ll see . . . .
JVL says “it’s fairly likely that” around 3% of the US population of 328,000,000 will contract COVID 19, resulting in 10,000,000 cases. (The exact number is 3.0488%.) He also says that of those 10 million cases, the fatality rate (CFR) is likely to be at least 2%, resulting in over 200,000 deaths.
This is insane scaremongering on a grand scale.
And it is easy to demonstrate this. Right now, as I write this, China (population 1.386 BILLION) has had a total of 81,054 cases. See here. 72,440 of those have recovered. There are 5,353 active cases. 1,845 of those are “serious.” There have been 3,261 deaths.
Deaths per day in China peaked at 150 on February 23. On March 21, there were 6 deaths. New cases peaked at 14,108 on February 12. On March 21 there were 46.
Significantly, there have been ZERO new cases reported in Wuhan for the 4th day in a row.
Inescapable conclusion. The epidemic has nearly run its course in China.
Let’s do a little simple math. Total deaths in a country with a population of 1.386 BILLION will almost certainly be under 10,000, perhaps under 5,000. Total cases will probably be less than 100,000.
Why in the world would anyone believe that total deaths in a county with a population of 328 million will approach 200,000? For that to happen, there would have to be over 20 times the deaths in a population that is one-fourth the size.
Why in the world would anyone believe that total cases in a county with a population of 328 million will approach 10 million? For that to happen, there would have to be 100 times the cases in a population that is one-fourth the size.
*I don’t know what JVL means by Barry’s limit of 200,000 deaths. Jim Thibodeau believes there will be over 200,000 deaths, not I. I believe there will be a fraction (probably a very tiny fraction) of 60,000 deaths, in other words, far fewer than the deaths caused by the flu last year.