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Climate Change: How to Lie without appearing to Lie

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Here’s almost 40 years of climate models, starting in 1971–when “Global Cooling” was feared, to the Hansen models in the 1980’s, the first in 1981 and the second in 1988, and the last ones by the IPCC, Assessment Reports (AR) from the 1990’s to about 2010.

Notice that the decadal rate of temperature increase remains almost the SAME for the entire 40 year period! And notice how the early models–mostly in the 1970’s when ‘cooling’ was in vogue, are very close to actuals. It’s only when super-duper “climate change models” were devised in the 90’s and later on that the sizable deviations occur.

So, here’s the ‘lie’: these authors claim that climate change models actually stack up quite well to actual temperatures, when, in fact, this is only true because they’ve used very simple models from the 70’s to average out the much larger errors that the super-duper “climate models” are showing. “There are lies, damned lies, and statistics!” And this is statistical averaging and a big lie!

But, theres MORE:

Here’s a quote from the Phys.Org press release:

Climate models are based on two main assumptions. One is the physics of the atmosphere and how it reacts to heat-trapping gases. The other is the amount of greenhouse gases put into the air.

A few times, scientists were wrong in their predictions about the growth of carbon pollution, saying there would be more of the gases than there actually were, Hausfather said. If they got the amount of heat-trapping gases wrong, they then got the temperatures wrong.

So Hausfather and colleagues, including NASA climate scientist Gavin Schmidt, looked at how well the models did on just the pure science, taking out the emissions factor. On that count, 14 of the 17 computer models accurately predicted the future.

So, if LEAVE OUT the amount of “Greenhouse Gases,” then models become accurate. So, what’s the point of the models, then? What a mockery of science this represents!!

Comments
The problem with this latest post is that you have it all wrong. The 1970s models are not better than the 1990s one, the rate increate in temperature has not been static since the 1800s, the acceleration in that rate is not now static. Simply making up facts to support you case sounds a bit like this "rooted in ideology" idea to meMimus
December 7, 2019
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loser's weeper:
And lasers only emit a single wavelength.
There aren't any lasers made from one molecule of CO2. Obviously you are a very desperate loser. It's as if you are such demented person that you don't care who knows it. Strange, but still not an argument. A better analogy would be a house with cargo netting for walls, ceiling and a roof. How much heat would it hold? Again, the scientific chart I provided shows how little CO2 impacts the GHG effect. And I understand why my detractors would ignore it.ET
December 7, 2019
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Virgil
CO2 will still only absorb and emit in ONE thermally relevant wavelength. Regardless of its concentration.
And lasers only emit a single wavelength. And they can be used to melt steel. There is only one significant solar produced mutagenic wavelength but I’m sure that melanoma suffered would consider it significant.Reapers Plague
December 7, 2019
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PaV please see the article that Latemarch linked to in comment 52. It deals specifically with your OP.ET
December 7, 2019
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loser's weeper:
If the calories you scarf down in Big Macs exceeds the calories you use or lose then you will gain weight.
I don't eat big macs. I am a vegetarian AND a gym rat
If the earth receives more energy than it uses or loses then it must go somewhere.
It doesn't go into CO2.
If you increase one of the factors that prevent loss of energy (eg, increased CO2 levels) atmospheric temperatures will increase even further until a new equilibrium is attained.
CO2 will still only absorb and emit in ONE thermally relevant wavelength. Regardless of its concentration.
An analogy, although not a perfect one, is your house
A FALSE analogy. A better analogy would be a house with cargo netting for walls, ceiling and a roof. How much heat would it hold? Again, the scientific chart I provided shows how little CO2 impacts the GHG effect. And I understand why my detractors would ignore it.ET
December 7, 2019
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Mimus: I'm not "scrambling" for anything. I indicated the kind of averaging they did: i.e., lumping 'accurate' (the 1970's models) with the 'inaccurate' (1990's and beyond models), and then saying that, OVERALL, the models are fairly accurate.
Turns out only has there been warming, it’s been trucking along at close to .2C per decade most of the time…
It turns out that this rate goes all the way back into the 1800's, a time when CO2 production was miniscule compared to today's production. Also, if the rate has been constant for 40 years, this comes at a time when CO2 production worldwide (think China and India) has skyrocketed. If CO2 causes 'warming,' then why hasn't the rate increased? You can't, and refuse, to answer the question. If you answered honestly, then it would be completely apparent that the current hysteria is rooted in idealogy, and, no more.PaV
December 7, 2019
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Frankie
This is true, but it has nothing to do with atmospheric CO2. That you would bring that into this discussion just proves that you are a desperate troll, intent on being belligerent.
If the calories you scarf down in Big Macs exceeds the calories you use or lose then you will gain weight. If you keep it up, you will continue to gain weight. You know this all too well from your personal experience. If the earth receives more energy than it uses or loses then it must go somewhere. In this case, an increased atmospheric temperature until an equilibrium is reached. If you increase one of the factors that prevent loss of energy (eg, increased CO2 levels) atmospheric temperatures will increase even further until a new equilibrium is attained. An analogy, although not a perfect one, is your house (or, in your case, your mother’s house). If your furnace runs continuously at a fixed rate (no thermostat), and the outside temperature remains constant, at 0 degrees, the temperature inside your house will stabilize at a fixed temperature. Now, if you receive 3 inches of snow and the outside temperature remains the same and the furnace continues to run at the same rate, the temperature in the house will increase until a new equilibrium is reached.Reapers Plague
December 7, 2019
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HT Latemarch:
The accuracy of the failed models improved when they adjusted them to fit the observations… Shocking.
(continues reading the article)ET
December 7, 2019
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A more technical analysis of the data. Climate Models Have Not Improved In 50 YearsLatemarch
December 7, 2019
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If the calories you scarf down in Big Macs exceeds the calories you use or lose then you will gain weight.
This is true, but it has nothing to do with atmospheric CO2. That you would bring that into this discussion just proves that you are a desperate troll, intent on being belligerent.ET
December 7, 2019
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Look, loser's plague, make your case as oppose to spewing cowardly innuendos. I dare you to try.ET
December 7, 2019
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Somebodysdad
Liar
Then you ignoring the input of calories was just plain old, everyday ignorance? That is so much better chubs.Reapers Plague
December 7, 2019
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moron:
Except that you willfully ignore the original input and quantity of calories in your calculations
LiarET
December 7, 2019
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CO2 doesn't trap heat, moron. Clearly your desperation and stupidity don't have any boundsET
December 7, 2019
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Sharon
The example of losing 100 calories and getting 4 back reflects what happens with CO2.
Except that you willfully ignore the original input and quantity of calories in your calculations. If the calories you scarf down in Big Macs exceeds the calories you use or lose then you will gain weight. If you keep it up, you will continue to gain weight. You know this all too well from your personal experience. If the earth continues to trap heat without it being lost elsewhere, the earth will continue to heat up.Reapers Plague
December 7, 2019
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The example of losing 100 calories and getting 4 back reflects what happens with CO2. The example of paying a dollar and receiving 4 cents back also reflects what happens with CO2. Reaper's examples just prove what a desperate moron it isET
December 7, 2019
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Reaper, clearly you are just a willfully ignorant troll and desperate moron. Not one of your examples reflect what is happening with CO2. Both of my examples describe it perfectly.ET
December 7, 2019
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Chubbs
Lose 100 calories and get 4 calories back means a net loss of 96 calories. reaper failed first grade mathematics.
You obviously have a reading comprehension problem, or you are just willfully ignorant. You willfully and ignorantly ignored the calories consumed. It’s first grade “arithmetic” chubbs.
Spend a dollar and get 4 cents back means you are down 96 cents.
But if you sell something for a dollar, and it cost you 96 cents in materials and labor to produce, you are up 4 cents. Repeat this 25 million times and you are a millionaire. Just because something is relatively small doesn’t mean that it can’t have a significant impact, your intelligence excepted.Reapers Plague
December 7, 2019
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LoL! I stand corrected- well sit correctedET
December 7, 2019
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First grade 'arithmetic', ET. I say that as a specialist in first-grade arithmetic.Axel
December 7, 2019
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Reaper's Plague is non-other than Timmy Horton/ adapa/ occams aftershave/ ghostrider. A total belligerent and pathological liar. Is UD really that desperate for comments? I don't mind refuting its easily refutable posts. But why waste the bandwidth on a sociopath like Timmy?ET
December 7, 2019
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The Stunning Statistical Fraud Behind The Global Warming Scare https://www.investors.com/politics/editorials/the-stunning-statistical-fraud-behind-the-global-warming-scare/bornagain77
December 7, 2019
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Wow, reaper is an ignorant punk. Your example proves that you are a clueless moron. My math says that if I got 4% of the calories lost, back, I would still be losing weight, moron. If the earth loses 96% and keeps only 4%, it will definitely not get warmer. Lose 100 calories and get 4 calories back means a net loss of 96 calories. reaper failed first grade mathematics. Spend a dollar and get 4 cents back means you are down 96 centsET
December 7, 2019
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ET
Wow, what a punk reaper is. I challenge reaper to present the math and science that refutes anything that I have posted. Or shut up, coward. Obviously reaper’s only strength is being a belligerent coward, quote-mining fool and liar
Here is an analogy I know you can relate to chubbs. By Joe math, if he continually consumed 4% more calories than he lost through metabolism and other processes, he would not gain weight. However, in the real world he would balloon up pretty quickly.Reapers Plague
December 7, 2019
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Wow, what a punk reaper is. I challenge reaper to present the math and science that refutes anything that I have posted. Or shut up, coward. Obviously reaper's only strength is being a belligerent coward, quote-mining fool and liarET
December 7, 2019
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ET
So what the alarmists are saying is that when about 4% of what is radiated by the earth is aimed back at it, the earth will warm. Got that>? Losing 96% is not going to cause the earth to cool cuz it gets 4% back.
Obviously math and thermodynamics are not your strengths.Reapers Plague
December 7, 2019
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PaV -
Why didn’t they put the year the model was run in each of the columns? Why didn’t they tell us how many are from 1971 to 1981 and those that came later?
As has already been pointed out, they did.
And why didn’t they include the latest Assessment Report from the IPCC? Why didn’t they include the last three?
They explain this in the paper:
We assessed model projections over the period between the date the model projection was published and the end of 2017, or when the model projection ended in cases where model runs did not extend through 2017. An end date of 2017 was chosen for the analysis because the ensemble of observational estimates of radiative forcings we used only extends through that date.
In other words, they couldn't test how well the models predict actual climate because they didn't have data on the actual climate.
They show only 14, 9 of which are from 1971 to 1988. Hansen’s 1988 has 3 temperatures, and the saving grace is the last of the three, which balances the first two. So, let’s throw that out, and we have 9 out of 13 of these models that are “accurate,” come from 1971 to 1981, a time when “global cooling” was the prevailing view. This is “bait-and-switch.”
I have no idea what you're trying to suggest - they still show that 9 models from the 70s were accurate. And it's not true that "global cooling" was the prevailing view:
A review of the climate science literature from 1965 to 1979 shows this myth to be false. The myths basis lies in a selective misreading of the texts both by some members of the media at the time and by some observers today. In fact, emphasis on greenhouse warming dominated the scientific literature even then.
(the paper goes on to provide the evidence to substantiate this claim, e.g. they surveyed papers from 1965 to 1979, and "identified only 7 articles indicating cooling compared to 44 indicating warming.")
And, Bob, why don’t you comment on the very obvious result that the “observed” rate of temperature increase has not change in over 40 years!
Because that wasn't a part of my argument.Bob O'H
December 7, 2019
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It's like saying using a cargo net for walls and a roof will hold the heat in. CO2 is very limited. If we compare it to a blanket, the blanket would be like a cargo net- holes strung together. Over 90% of the earth's radiated LW IR is unaffected by CO2. And considering that less than half of what CO2 emits will be aimed back towards the earth, that 90% is actually higher. So what the alarmists are saying is that when about 4% of what is radiated by the earth is aimed back at it, the earth will warm. Got that>? Losing 96% is not going to cause the earth to cool cuz it gets 4% back. How stupid and gullible are these people? Cue Acartia Eddie and mimus to continue to ignore the facts and prattle onET
December 7, 2019
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Wow. Anyone can look at the scientific chart and see that CO2 is a very minor player. It isn't my fault that my detractors are blind, willfully ignorant and incoherent.
If there had been no increase in the amounts of non-condensable greenhouse gases, the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere would not have changed with all other variables remaining the same.
That's BS. Without GHGs the sun's rays heats the surface faster and to a higher temp. That would mean the water would evaporate faster and produce more clouds. The fact is that the clean air acts have allowed this to happen. More of the sun's rays are reaching the surface. Look at the chart The big blue chunk is what is radiated back to space unobstructed. The little spikes to its right show the space between CO2 and water vapor. Take away CO2 and all that happens is a little smattering of blue from 14.5-15.5 um. A bump about twice as high as those little spikes, maybe slightly higher. That's it. You have to be a fool to think that blocking such an insignificant smattering would cause anything. And there isn't any science to support the claim that it has.ET
December 7, 2019
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ET, This argument is about 100 years out of date, having been disproved theoretically and empirically in the atmosphere. A summary at multiple levels here: https://skepticalscience.com/saturated-co2-effect-basic.htmMimus
December 6, 2019
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