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Darwin’s bluff

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I dedicate this short post to our great UD President Barry Arrington, who is a poker player.

Evolutionists usually claim that prerequisite for Darwinian evolution is a single self-replicating thing capable of heritable variations. From such thing evolution produced all life forms, from ameba to whales, by means of small random variations and natural selection.

Just for fun, we could metaphorically see evolution as a particular “poker game”, with the following correlations:

(1) The dealer deals shuffled cards to the players. This shuffling is analogous to the genotypic random variations.

(2) The active players show their cards, and the owner of the best five-card hand wins. These players are analogous to the phenotypes, the organisms that fight for survival.

(3) Players who fold and discard their cards are analogous to natural selection, by which traits that do not confer an advantage are discarded, while advantageous traits are selected for and are passed on

(4) Higher organisms have a number of cells ranging from 10^12 to 10^16. Roughly a five-card hand has a number of molecules of that order. Any card has a pattern which identifies the card value. In our poker/evolution metaphor the patterns in a five-card hand are symbolically analogous to the specifications of the main large apparatuses of an higher organism.

(5) Now, to make more precise our metaphor we must recall two things evolutionists state: at the beginning of evolution there is only a self-replicating thing; evolution works by small random variations in such primitive thing and its offspring. The small random variations are at the level of molecules. So it would be fully inappropriate to consider the dealer as a provider of cards in their entirety. Because in the metaphor complete cards are symbols of entire apparatuses with billion cells. Consequently, in our metaphor necessarily the dealer must provide/shuffle molecules of cards, not complete cards, to the players.

Conclusion

Like incomplete and unspecified card patterns confer no advantage to a poker player, analogously, biological irreducibly complex systems missing some parts confer no advantage to an organism. Example: a fragment of white card with only a black pixel in the corner is not a valid and recognizable card; analogously an organism with a genotypic variation cannot account for, say, an entire functioning cardiovascular or nervous system, arising ex abrupto. Such useless things would be discarded by the poker player / natural selection.

As a consequence, the players will never have winning card hands. In all sessions, they will always be forced to discard what they have in their hands. No complete poker game will ever begin. Darwinian poker is eliminative, not constructive. In short Darwinian poker is a non game.

This poker metaphor somehow shows why not only Darwinian evolution cannot produce biologic complex IC systems, let alone organisms, but why it is a process that cannot even begin the job.

A final poker concept remains to be placed in the metaphor: the bluff. Imagine a player who makes us believe he has a straight flush while having in his hands only some molecules of card. That is Darwin’s bluff – the biggest bluff in history – the claim to be able to create all life forms by unguided evolution, while it cannot produce the least organized system of the smallest living being.

Comments
Great post niwrad. So the Darwinian hand is "nothing." Yet Darwinians, like our friend Lincoln, cling to it tenaciously. I guess they agree with Luke (from one of the best movies of all time, Cool Hand Luke): "Sometimes 'nothing' is a real cool hand." :-)Barry Arrington
January 7, 2014
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A few notes of related interest:, Considering nobody has ever seen a single gene, or even a single novel protein domain, arise by purely gradual evolutionary processes,,
"Charles Darwin said (paraphrase), 'If anyone could find anything that could not be had through a number of slight, successive, modifications, my theory would absolutely break down.' Well that condition has been met time and time again. Basically every gene, every protein fold. There is nothing of significance that we can show that can be had in a gradualist way. It's a mirage. None of it happens that way. - Doug Axe PhD. Nothing In Molecular Biology Is Gradual - Doug Axe PhD. http://www.metacafe.com/watch/5347797/
,,,It is interesting to see the numbers that scientists get when they try to figure out what it would take for evolutionary processes produce a protein domain:
Doug Axe Knows His Work Better Than Steve Matheson Excerpt: Regardless of how the trials are performed, the answer ends up being at least half of the total number of password possibilities, which is the staggering figure of 10^77 (written out as 100, 000, 000, 000, 000, 000, 000, 000, 000, 000, 000, 000, 000, 000, 000, 000, 000, 000, 000, 000, 000, 000, 000, 000, 000, 000). Armed with this calculation, you should be very confident in your skepticism, because a 1 in 10^77 chance of success is, for all practical purposes, no chance of success. My experimentally based estimate of the rarity of functional proteins produced that same figure, making these likewise apparently beyond the reach of chance. http://www.evolutionnews.org/2010/06/doug_axe_knows_his_work_better035561.html Axe Diagram for finding a functional protein domain out of all sequence space: The y-axis can be seen as representing enzyme activity, and the x-axis represents all possible amino acid sequences. Enzymes sit at the peak of their fitness landscapes (Point A). There are extremely high levels of complex and specified information in proteins--informational sequences which point to intelligent design. http://www.evolutionnews.org/axediagram.jpg The Case Against a Darwinian Origin of Protein Folds - Douglas Axe - 2010 Excerpt Pg. 11: "Based on analysis of the genomes of 447 bacterial species, the projected number of different domain structures per species averages 991. Comparing this to the number of pathways by which metabolic processes are carried out, which is around 263 for E. coli, provides a rough figure of three or four new domain folds being needed, on average, for every new metabolic pathway. In order to accomplish this successfully, an evolutionary search would need to be capable of locating sequences that amount to anything from one in 10^159 to one in 10^308 possibilities, something the neo-Darwinian model falls short of by a very wide margin." http://bio-complexity.org/ojs/index.php/main/article/view/BIO-C.2010.1 When Theory and Experiment Collide — April 16th, 2011 by Douglas Axe Excerpt: Based on our experimental observations and on calculations we made using a published population model [3], we estimated that Darwin’s mechanism would need a truly staggering amount of time—a trillion trillion years or more—to accomplish the seemingly subtle change in enzyme function that we studied. http://www.biologicinstitute.org/post/18022460402/when-theory-and-experiment-collide "a very rough but conservative result is that if all the sequences that define a particular (protein) structure or fold-set where gathered into an area 1 square meter in area, the next island would be tens of millions of light years away." Kirk Durston Dr. Durston elaborates on how futile an evolutionary search is to find a single functional protein: Excerpt: From this, we can come up with a very rough estimate for the total number of stable, folding 3D sequences in 300 residue sequence space … roughly 10^74 sequences that will give stable 3D folds (this is very rough, but it will illustrate my point and help one see why scientists don’t search for novel stable 3D folds from a library of random sequences). One might think that 10^75 sequences is an enormous number, however, it is miniscule in comparison with 20^300, which is the total number of sequences in 300 –residue sequence space. This is why the theory that an evolutionary search, even if it involved all the planets in all the galaxies of the known universe, is utterly implausible. https://uncommondescent.com/biophysics/kirk-durston-a-common-either-or-mistake-both-darwinists-and-id-theorists-make/#comment-466489 Physicists Discover Quantum Law of Protein Folding – February 22, 2011 Quantum mechanics finally explains why protein folding depends on temperature in such a strange way. Excerpt: First, a little background on protein folding. Proteins are long chains of amino acids that become biologically active only when they fold into specific, highly complex shapes. The puzzle is how proteins do this so quickly when they have so many possible configurations to choose from. To put this in perspective, a relatively small protein of only 100 amino acids can take some 10^100 different configurations. If it tried these shapes at the rate of 100 billion a second, it would take longer than the age of the universe to find the correct one. Just how these molecules do the job in nanoseconds, nobody knows.,,, Their astonishing result is that this quantum transition model fits the folding curves of 15 different proteins and even explains the difference in folding and unfolding rates of the same proteins. That's a significant breakthrough. Luo and Lo's equations amount to the first universal laws of protein folding. That’s the equivalent in biology to something like the thermodynamic laws in physics. http://www.technologyreview.com/view/423087/physicists-discover-quantum-law-of-protein/
But finding a functional protein is not the worse job that Darwinian processes have failed to give a coherent explanation for. The worse job that Darwinian processes have failed to give a coherent explanation for is how do all these trillions upon trillions of proteins know how to cohere their actions into a 'oneness'?
HOW BIOLOGISTS LOST SIGHT OF THE MEANING OF LIFE — AND ARE NOW STARING IT IN THE FACE - Stephen L. Talbott - May 2012 Excerpt: “If you think air traffic controllers have a tough job guiding planes into major airports or across a crowded continental airspace, consider the challenge facing a human cell trying to position its proteins”. A given cell, he notes, may make more than 10,000 different proteins, and typically contains more than a billion protein molecules at any one time. “Somehow a cell must get all its proteins to their correct destinations — and equally important, keep these molecules out of the wrong places”. And further: “It’s almost as if every mRNA [an intermediate between a gene and a corresponding protein] coming out of the nucleus knows where it’s going” (Travis 2011),,, Further, the billion protein molecules in a cell are virtually all capable of interacting with each other to one degree or another; they are subject to getting misfolded or “all balled up with one another”; they are critically modified through the attachment or detachment of molecular subunits, often in rapid order and with immediate implications for changing function; they can wind up inside large-capacity “transport vehicles” headed in any number of directions; they can be sidetracked by diverse processes of degradation and recycling... and so on without end. Yet the coherence of the whole is maintained. The question is indeed, then, “How does the organism meaningfully dispose of all its molecules, getting them to the right places and into the right interactions?” The same sort of question can be asked of cells,,,, http://www.netfuture.org/2012/May1012_184.html#2 ‘Now one more problem as far as the generation of information. It turns out that you don’t only need information to build genes and proteins, it turns out to build Body-Plans you need higher levels of information; Higher order assembly instructions. DNA codes for the building of proteins, but proteins must be arranged into distinctive circuitry to form distinctive cell types. Cell types have to be arranged into tissues. Tissues have to be arranged into organs. Organs and tissues must be specifically arranged to generate whole new Body-Plans, distinctive arrangements of those body parts. We now know that DNA alone is not responsible for those higher orders of organization. DNA codes for proteins, but by itself it does not insure that proteins, cell types, tissues, organs, will all be arranged in the body. And what that means is that the Body-Plan morphogenesis, as it is called, depends upon information that is not encoded on DNA. Which means you can mutate DNA indefinitely. 80 million years, 100 million years, til the cows come home. It doesn’t matter, because in the best case you are just going to find a new protein some place out there in that vast combinatorial sequence space. You are not, by mutating DNA alone, going to generate higher order structures that are necessary to building a body plan. So what we can conclude from that is that the neo-Darwinian mechanism is grossly inadequate to explain the origin of information necessary to build new genes and proteins, and it is also grossly inadequate to explain the origination of novel biological form.’ - Stephen Meyer - Functional Proteins And Information For Body Plans - video http://www.metacafe.com/watch/4050681
bornagain77
January 7, 2014
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Natural select is truly a tautology and worthless as a scientific concept.Jeff M
January 7, 2014
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@Lincoln Phipps #1
But we humans do not know the relative strengths of all combinations of residues from small sized polypeptides to any lengths. We probably will never know this for many years yet and at best all we would do is know the probability of what is functional.
That lack of knowledge doesn't seem to have stopped neo-Darwinians from asserting that heritable alternations of DNA are "random", aimless, independent of future fitness. Without knowing the transition probabilities in the combinatorial space and distribution of fitness in that space (and no one knows either since even the transition probabilities in the space of all configurations requires at least a quantum mechanical treatment of large DNA molecules, or likely of the entire biochemical network of a cell, any of which is far beyond the present computational technology), any assertions on the nature and origin of the observed DNA alternations, random/aimless or intelligently guided, are equally a bluff. Hence, in the claimed neo-Darwinian mechanism "random mutation" for the origin of evolutionary novelty, the attribute "random" (or aimless) of the observed mutations is purely a gratuitous, parasitic ideological/theological add on, without basis in scientific facts.nightlight
January 7, 2014
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Earth to Lincoln Phipps- There isn't any valid hypotheses wrt unguided evolution. ASlso there isn't any "evolution vs ID"- perhaps YOU should learn books as it is all there...Joe
January 7, 2014
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niwad, all that Darwin has said is what he has had published. You should learn to read books as it is all there. The OP's analogy is bust. Live with that and move on.Lincoln Phipps
January 7, 2014
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#1 Lincoln Phipps' bluff = Darwin's bluffniwrad
January 7, 2014
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Argument from false analogy and ignorance as the relative strengths of poker hands are predefined and known. But we humans do not know the relative strengths of all combinations of residues from small sized polypeptides to any lengths. We probably will never know this for many years yet and at best all we would do is know the probability of what is functional. Neither do ID supporters know this and if they don't know this then they certainly can't start claiming to know that functionality is absent for smaller numbers of residues unless they brute-force work this out (or use pseudo-random trials). But given that mini-proteins of a small number of residues do have functionality (and fold) then there doesn't seem to be a irreducible gap. That a certain set of proteins are found in modern life does not follow that this set was in place since the dawn of life of Earth. As smaller mini-proteins have functionality (i.e. it still is a winning poker hand) then the opening argument seems to be defeated. For evolution to stay valid the hypothesis is that there will be a continuum of functional proteins from small numbers of residues through to modern life. That humans have found some just means Evolution verses ID debate will be filling in the gaps in residue counts and understanding what functionality happens so it is a good bet that such a hypothesis would stay on the table.Lincoln Phipps
January 7, 2014
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