4th Study Shows COVID-19 Cases Massively Underestimated

_{Barry Arrington

April 23, 2020

Intelligent Design

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Intelligent Design}

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This account of the report states:

Preliminary results from New York’s first coronavirus antibody study show nearly 14 percent tested positive, meaning they had the virus at some point and recovered, Gov. Andrew Cuomo said Thursday. That equates to 2.7 million infections statewide — more than 10 times the state’s confirmed cases.

Cue the science deniers: Jim Thibodeau and Orthomyxo, you’re up. How are you going to dismiss this latest study in furtherance of your calls for hysteria and panic at the expense of dispassionate reason?

Comments

From https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/04/more-reason-for-caution-with-malaria-drugs-as-covid-19-treatment/
A team of researchers used VHA data to track the outcomes of confirmed COVID-19 patients at veterans hospitals who were treated with just hydroxychloroquine, hydroxychloroquine plus an antibiotic, or neither of the drugs. They found that 27.8 percent of the 97 patients treated with just hydroxychloroquine died, compared to 11.4 percent of the 158 patients who weren’t treated with hydroxychloroquine at all, and 22.1 percent of the 113 patients who were treated with hydroxychloroquine and an antibiotic. Rates of ventilation were similar across the three groups.
JVL_{April 23, 2020
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Truthfreedom: Why won't you answer Ed George's question? Are you afraid to answer it honestly? A yes or no answer would be a lot easier than typing all those deflecting responses. Just in case you've forgotten what it was:
If a woman is pregnant and the fetus has a very small, but not zero, chance of viability, and continuing the pregnancy places the woman at a potential serious risk to her health, is it unethical and immoral for her to have it terminated?
JVL_{April 23, 2020
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JT & Ortho: The value of testing for CV19 has been over-hyped, rather as testing for HIV in some parts was. I once had to legally deal with an attempt to slip such testing in as a job criterion. I pointed out from news articles the confidentiality-stigmatisation challenge and a basic fact: five minutes after the test, my status, in principle, could change were I sufficiently reckless and disregarding of my life vows. CV19 testing is not all the way to being like that, but the reality is, infinite testing is infeasible, there is an implicit trade-off implying a marginal point where under prevailing circumstances of shortage and time-effort to develop, validate, make and distribute same then devote facilities, effort and time to test, accurately record and validate, process and report, testing beyond a given point is not reasonable. That is, we must ask, what is it that we are implicitly giving up when we insist on an increment in what we propose to do. Obviously, the marginal point moves with time and circumstances. Suspected cases are a first priority, to confirm. Though, it seems some clinicians may be adept at diagnosis on observation and interview. (There may be too much of a gold standard culture regarding lab testing.) In that context, contact tracing leads to further testing and to linked epidemiology. We know that detected cases and time consumed by mass testing means that a CV19 census at a snapshot in time is infeasible. So, testing to characterise population dynamics needs to be sampling based, projected to the population through demographic profiling. In this context antibody testing may be relevant to identifying asymptomatic cases. It seems that sort of testing lagged the PCR based direct testing for the virus. Of course, in a highly polarised political and media culture, this sort of reasoning on economics issues will predictably lead to mischaracterisation and projection of base motivation. We would be well advised to refrain from adding fuel to the dumpster fire. KFkairosfocus_{April 23, 2020
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@49 Ed George
Of course I don’t care about your opinion.
Then why are you insisting? You are a strange, illogical person. And a known and proud liar.
Do you honestly believe that anyone does?
Look. Grandpa is angry :) I do not know. Probably someone does care. :) Have you done a poll or something? Do you read minds? I have noticed that darwinists tend to do that. Which of course is non-sensical. People that say they are neuronal illusions. Please learn logic. For your own sake.Truthfreedom_{April 23, 2020
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@ Ed George
And then there is the US. A narcissistic president who is incapable of admitting any mistakes, and if mistakes were made, they were someone else’s.
Wait. A subjectivist claiming that narcissism is objectively wrong. No, a subjectivist can not do that. Therefore, it is an opinion. 7.2 billion people on Earth, each one with their own opinion. What a conundrum.Truthfreedom_{April 23, 2020
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TF
Please clarify: if you do not care about my opinion, why do you care?
Of course I don’t care about your opinion. Do you honestly believe that anyone does? But I like reading your comments for the same reason that people used to be fascinated by the freak shows at the circus. It’s a guilt pleasure of mine. You are just like Pavlov’s dogs. All I have to do to get you mindlessly salivating all over a thread is to ring a bell (ie, post a comment).Ed George_{April 23, 2020
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Orthomyxo, I suspect that JD is correct. The down side of ramping up testing is that the number of confirmed cases goes up. You can see this in Canada’s numbers as they get access to more tests. At present, Canada has tested 15% more of the population than the US has. It is also interesting to compare the leadership styles between the two countries. Canada has a liberal federal government that is only slightly right of Bernie. And several of the provinces currently have populist conservative governments. But they have largely left partisanship at the door and don’t play the blame game. The Ontario Premier is an ultra conservative but has accepted full accountability for anything that has gone wrong and given full credit to those who have done good things. And then there is the US. A narcissistic president who is incapable of admitting any mistakes, and if mistakes were made, they were someone else’s. There was a recent poll that asked if people thought that Trump’s presidency made other countries respect the US more or less. Maybe they should ask this of people in the other countries.Ed George_{April 23, 2020
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@Ed George
I always find it interesting (ie, hypocritical) when someone like TF lamely ridicules someone’s world view as being irrational but then can’t rationally justify his own.
More Lol! A subjectivist insinuating that hypocrisy is objectively wrong. Haha. Precious. You are self-refuting yourself again. You really need a logic course. No wonder you fall prey of fairy-tales. :)Truthfreedom_{April 23, 2020
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@Ed George
This is not a loaded question, or a hypothetical. It is a decision my daughter had to make yesterday.
Again: you are a known and proud liar. Again: which part of I do not believe your 'abortion tale' do not you understand? Are you sure you can comunicate with other human beings? 'I do not believe you' = 'I do not believe you'. Ad infinitum. Please clarify: if you do not care about my opinion, why do you care? How strange. :) You are an endorphin booster. You write 3 sentences and contradict yourself 3 times.Truthfreedom_{April 23, 2020
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JT
Lotta tap dancing, but no answer.
Fred Astaire would be proud. I always find it interesting (ie, hypocritical) when someone like TF lamely ridicules someone’s world view as being irrational but then can’t rationally justify his own.Ed George_{April 23, 2020
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@Ortho Trump only ever cares about one thing, how he looks, and he doesn’t want the numbers to go up.Jim Thibodeau_{April 23, 2020
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JT @ 32, The lack of extra testing is a bit odd to me. The safest way to get back to something like normality is to have a lot of testing around cases to track and isolate only the ill. It's not at all clear to me that the US is in a place to implement that (though maybe that's not the plan they have, or they ar holding reagents in hand to ramp up after lockdown end ?).orthomyxo_{April 23, 2020
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Lotta tap dancing, but no answer.Jim Thibodeau_{April 23, 2020
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TF
I’ll repeat it again: I do not believe your ‘abortion tale’.
I guess that is a convenient way to avoid answering a question.
You are a known and proud liar.
We are all entitled to hold false opinions. So I will rephrase my question. If a woman is pregnant and the fetus has a very small, but not zero, chance of viability, and continuing the pregnancy places the woman at a potential serious risk to her health, is it unethical and immoral for her to have it terminated? This is not a loaded question, or a hypothetical. It is a decision my daughter had to make yesterday.Ed George_{April 23, 2020
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@33 Ed George
TF, I understand if your stance on abortion can’t hold up to scrutiny. That is always the case for those who believe that abortion, regardless of the reason, is unethical and immoral.
I'll repeat it again: I do not believe your 'abortion tale'. You are a known and proud liar. And again: you do not understand logic. It is patently, brutally, ridiculously obvious. Lots of darwinians are awfully bad at logic. You swallow senseless garbage without thinking, because you can not properly use logic. You, a subjectivist, are making an objective claim. But that refutes your position, therefore it is only your opinion. And a subjectivist using the word 'always'... I've really burst out laughing. Thanks for the endorphin boost. Look my friend, 7.2 billion people on Earth, and each of them with their own opinion. Go figure how much I care about 'subjectivity' :)Truthfreedom_{April 23, 2020
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That's all easy one, FF. It doesn't.orthomyxo_{April 23, 2020
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How come Santa Clara county, CA which is much less densely populated than NYC, and with no real mass transit to speak of, has an infection rate of around 21% compared to 14% in NYC? Doesn't make sense. NYC officials are lying about something. Some unscrupulous people will benefit from a prolonged lockdown.FourFaces_{April 23, 2020
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FF
Where did you get the 25% infection rate number from?
Just a reasonable extrapolation from the antibody tests that suggest that the NY infection rate is around 14%. And that is with isolation practices in place. A slow decline and a couple small waves will easily bring this to 25%.
The death rate decreases automatically at the the number of infected people goes up due to herd immunity.
But not until the number of people immune gets much higher that 25%.Ed George_{April 23, 2020
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Herd immunity and IFR are not related, herd immunity is just the level where outbreaks are only local and burn out due to lack of hosts. For this virus, and with no mitigation, we'd need about 66% immune to get there (but more than that would get infected, as herd immunity doesn't stop the virus, just slow it to less then 1 new infection per case)orthomyxo_{April 23, 2020
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TF, I understand if your stance on abortion can’t hold up to scrutiny. That is always the case for those who believe that abortion, regardless of the reason, is unethical and immoral. If your daughter was in the same position as mine (ie, very low probability of carrying it to term along with a potential serious risk to herself), would it be unethical and immoral to want to have it terminated?Ed George_{April 23, 2020
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@Orthomyxo We’ve been stuck at 135,000 to 150,000 daily tests for the last three weeks. It’s very clear that the administration doesn’t want people to be tested. Incredibly stupid and destructive.Jim Thibodeau_{April 23, 2020
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Ed George Where did you get the 25% infection rate number from? The infection rate is estimated to be about 4 or 5% at this time. The death rate decreases automatically at the the number of infected people goes up due to herd immunity.FourFaces_{April 23, 2020
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@Ed I don’t think your friend has a good answer for you. That’s why he’s dodging.Jim Thibodeau_{April 23, 2020
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I don't think that's true, much of the coverage has been about how bad the testing has been, which implies undetected cases and inflated IFR. As I show above, an IFR 0.5% could easily translate to a million deaths in the US in an uncontrolled epidemic.orthomyxo_{April 23, 2020
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@25 Ed George Again: 1. You are a known and proud liar. 2. I do not believe any of your stories. Thefore I do not believe this 'abortion tale' of yours. 3. You say you never care about what I write but now you seem very interested. How strange. :) 4. You think morals are what 'most people agree on'. Therefore, according to your religion, you should make a poll to know if your have behaved 'immorally' or not. I will copy again what I wrote @15:
Talk about the unborn being expendable is unethical and immoral, however and should not be allowed to pass unchallenged.
Truthfreedom_{April 23, 2020
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FF
It’s criminal. The actual COVID-19 death rate is probably less than .5%.
But even at that, assuming a 25% infection rate, that is close to a half million dead in the US.Ed George_{April 23, 2020
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Orthomyxo, I know that the confirmed death rate is not really relevant but the 4 to 7% COVID-19 confirmed death rate is what the lying globalist mainstream media have been using to whip up panic. It's criminal. The actual COVID-19 death rate is probably less than .5%.FourFaces_{April 23, 2020
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TF
How strange that you are ‘very thankful’ since you said you do not support abortion.
If it wasn’t terminated, my daughter would have been put at serious potential health risk. To me, the best choice was obvious. Again, do you think this makes me Or my daughter immoral? In this case I certainly believe that the fetus was expendable. In your mind, I assume this obviously makes me unethical and immoral. Is this correct?Ed George_{April 23, 2020
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FourFaces, That sounds like a plausable number of confirmed cases, but it's not very relevant to the IFR since so many people who get the flu are not tested. Indeed, you can't even get a consistent IFR because the most of the people in ~24,000 deaths wouldn't have been tested either.orthomyxo_{April 23, 2020
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@22 Ed George
I don’t know. My daughter had a chemically induced termination yesterday and I am very thankful that she did. Does that make me immoral.?
How strange that you are 'very thankful' since you said you do not support abortion. Sounds extremely weird, but you are a known and proud liar, therefore I am not surprised. And you care about my opinion because? Are not you the person that says you always forget what I write? Do you need a moral guide, Ed?Truthfreedom_{April 23, 2020
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