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California v. Florida: COVID-19 Response and Results

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Much has been written about

In this article, Keith Carlson compares California (first in the nation with drastic lockdown measures that are not yet lifted) with Florida (lockdown started two weeks later and is already easing). This is the summary:

  • California’s population is 39.5 million, Florida’s is 21.5 million.
  • The average age in each state is: California, 36Florida, 42—Floridians an average of six years older.
  • As of April 23, California had 33,261 one cases and 1,268 COVID-19 deaths;
  • Florida had 27,869 cases and 867 deaths. Meaning, 0.08 percent and 0.1 percent of those states’ populations were infected.
  • California’s death-per-infected rate: 3.8 percent, Florida’s: 3.1 percent, with an equally small percentage of each state’s population having died, less than 0.005 percent.
  • California’s 39.5 million people are spread out over 163,696 square miles, Florida’s 21.5 million are over 65,755 square miles—thus, California has 241.3 people per mile, Florida has 327.
  • California’s restrictions started on March 19, Florida’s two weeks later on April 3. California’s peak resource date was April 13, Florida’s was earlier, on April 12. According to IHME forecasts, both states had substantially more hospital and ICU beds than needed.

As of April 16, California (first with the stay-home order) had lost 2.8 million jobs (7 percent of the entire state), New York 1.2 million (4 percent of the state), yet Florida just 654,000 (2 percent of the state.) 

Comments
Asauber: The nastiness of the virus ranges from death to nothing happens symptomatically. Yup. It’s not known what the accuracy of the numbers are. Testing is haphazard. The cause of death attribution is an opinion. Efficacy of treatments is in dispute. How accurate do you think they have to be before people have to start making decisions about things like lockdowns, spending money on testing, closing the borders, etc? I'm pretty sure I heard someone hear praise President Trump for closing down flights from China pretty quickly. And that was when there were very, very few cases in the US. Do you think he made the right call? Meanwhile, virus scoreboards, political posturing, virtue signalling and scaring children is the new normal. Sounds a little loosey-goosey to me. Maybe. I happen to think that the virus is worth fighting and I also think that you have to be honest with people about what is happening. I know the numbers are not perfect but they are what we've got. In 1918 the US government decided to tone down the Spanish flu warnings because of WWI. One US senator or representative was even jailed for wanting to talk about it in public contrary to a law that was passed. Some cities didn't buy the feel good vibe and locked down. Those cities had a better and faster rebound economically that those that did little or nothing. These are tough times, there is no best solution; we're just going to have to make it up as we go along using the best data we can get our hands on at the time.JVL
May 6, 2020
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No, I’m not mocking. I have read articles by several physicians that expressed the opinion that the frequently sited work in favour of HCQ is weak;
Maybe you would like to share them with us because I haven't seen any especially when used with zinc. Please don't reference the VA report which was not relevant. I can cite many positive. For example https://bit.ly/3foXqzBjerry
May 6, 2020
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"It’s a nasty virus!" Back to my point, and in agreement with ET @36. The nastiness of the virus ranges from death to nothing happens symptomatically. It's not known what the accuracy of the numbers are. Testing is haphazard. The cause of death attribution is an opinion. Efficacy of treatments is in dispute. Meanwhile, virus scoreboards, political posturing, virtue signalling and scaring children is the new normal. Sounds a little loosey-goosey to me. Andrewasauber
May 6, 2020
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Jerry: Is this more mocking? All the evidence is positive to date. About half of deaths or more are in nursing home but the nursing home that implemented the cure had one death. No, I'm not mocking. I have read articles by several physicians that expressed the opinion that the frequently sited work in favour of HCQ is weak; their opinion not mine. AND, if the FDA and CDC and the US government were sure why are there ongoing clinical trials? It seems like the evidence isn't as clear cut as some think. Well, let's just say it's not clear cut to a lot of people who make the decisions. We'll see! True, but for those with inadequate immune systems the progression is not pretty. So it is not normal in that for most it is mild or less but for a small percentage it is literally deadly and not benign. You could say the same of the seasonal flu couldn't you? But COVID-19 seems to take it up a step or two.JVL
May 6, 2020
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ET: It’s such a nasty virus that many people don’t even know they have it! Nasty for some anyway! I suspect the really big epidemiological studies trying to figure out why it has had such varying effects are already beginning.JVL
May 6, 2020
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We’ll see if the ‘cure’ really is efficacious after the clinical trials have finished.
Is this more mocking? All the evidence is positive to date. About half of deaths or more are in nursing home but the nursing home that implemented the cure had one death.
It’s such a nasty virus that many people don’t even know they have it!
True, but for those with inadequate immune systems the progression is not pretty. So it is not normal in that for most it is mild or less but for a small percentage it is literally deadly and not benign. We are not used to such a wide spread disease with such properties. In previous times the diseases with such deadly outcomes hit the general population hard and just as quick. My great grandfather died of what was called consumption or what is now called Tuberculosis and so did two of his children, not my grandmother however.jerry
May 6, 2020
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It's such a nasty virus that many people don't even know they have it!ET
May 6, 2020
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Asauber: There is a cure but it was mocked and not widely used. What would the number of dead be if the cure was implemented? Maybe 90% less, maybe even less? We'll see if the 'cure' really is efficacious after the clinical trials have finished.JVL
May 6, 2020
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BobRyan: How can there be more COVID-19 deaths than pneumonia deaths? It's a nasty virus! And it's a real risk. According to World of Meters site you use, Sweden should be showing far more dead. They have not shut down anything. They have a population of just over 10,000,000, yet have not even reached 3000 dead. That odd data point does not make the data incorrect. It means there's something else about how Sweden is handling the problem that we don't fully understand. Or maybe they're just more genetically immune? I'm sure someone will be trying to figure that out! You ask how many more would have died had we not locked things down? Which you choose not to answer. I agree there are side-effects of the lockdowns and I'm very glad I'm not the one making the call because the is no good solution. I don't have an answer but I'm trying to stay up with the data.JVL
May 6, 2020
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Asauber: I’m not sure what it is you are trying to accomplish, repeatedly regurgitating numbers that you admittedly know nothing about. If you've got a better source I'd be happy to look at it!JVL
May 6, 2020
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Question? Were most of the dead from C19 unnecessary? There is a cure but it was mocked and not widely used. What would the number of dead be if the cure was implemented? Maybe 90% less, maybe even less? Would everyone be going about their normal lives by now if the cure was implemented? Would we be having these inane discussions over the exact numbers where we ignore the obvious canary because the canary has been given the cure and no one in the press reported it?jerry
May 6, 2020
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BobRyan, Your comment points to the heart of the matter. A Covid-19 Death is a qualified *opinion*. Are the proverbial Second Opinions ever asked for in these cases? All of this is loosesy-goosey from the get go. As with Climate Change, I suspect there is more than pure science and/or medicine in the presentation of Covid-19 related numbers. In fact, it's pretty obvious to anyone who hasn't bought into the hype, hook, line, and sinker. Andrewasauber
May 6, 2020
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JVL states that 72,000 Americans have died of COVID-19. The most recent numbers from the CDC show 67,372 total Pneumonia deaths. Pneumonia is quick to diagnose and there is not much lag. COVID-19 attacks the lungs of an already compromised system, which causes a shortness of breath in severe cases. How can there be more COVID-19 deaths than pneumonia deaths? https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm According to World of Meters site you use, Sweden should be showing far more dead. They have not shut down anything. They have a population of just over 10,000,000, yet have not even reached 3000 dead. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ You cling to the belief that science-fiction is based on fact. You ignore real science, which is what herd immunity is. You ask how many more would have died had we not locked things down? How many more suicides have there been? How many more women and children have been beaten to death? How many have died alone? How many are too frightened of COVID-19 to go to the hospital and will suffer long-term problems? How many do not know if they will have a job a month from now? How many do not know how they are going to feed their families? How many do not know if they are going to keep their houses or apartments? You focus on COVID-19, while ignoring the suffering of far more.BobRyan
May 6, 2020
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JVL, Thanks for the response, but your Part A "I find them in fairly good agreement with other sources and I find their presentation easy to use and explore" doesn't speak at all to the quality of the data. Your part B "I acknowledge they may be in error" Speaks to your ignorance of the quality of the data. I'm not sure what it is you are trying to accomplish, repeatedly regurgitating numbers that you admittedly know nothing about. Andrewasauber
May 6, 2020
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Asauber: Are you treating worldometers numbers as Gospel again? I already answered that. I reference them because I find them in fairly good agreement with other sources and I find their presentation easy to use and explore. But I acknowledge they may be in error. If you've got a better source of data then please state it and I will check it out.JVL
May 6, 2020
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JVL, Are you treating worldometers numbers as Gospel again? You kind of say you aren't but then you plaster them all over UD like they are. Are you confused as to what position you actually hold? Andrewasauber
May 6, 2020
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BobRyan: The world has yet to reach 300,000 COVID-19 deaths. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ puts it at over 258,000 as of May 6th. Same with ourworldindata.org/coronavirus. Over 500,000 people die every year from influenza, yet influenza is rarely called a pandemic. That's 500,000 over a whole year, yes? COVID-19 has been a problem for about four months. 2 seasons ago it did reach a pandemic level, which resulted in over 80,000 Americans dying. Over 72,000 COVID-19 deaths in the US as of May 6th. The first confirmed US case was in late January. A pandemic is defined as a disease outbreak that spreads across countries or continents. It affects more people and takes more lives than an epidemic. I don't think the numbers or the death rates have anything to do with the designation pandemic vs epidemic. The idea that any government had to do something is nothing more than encouraging science-fiction. It was clear the projections were wrong before a single state or country shut down business and started quarantining en mass. Rather than letting cooler heads prevail, which is what happened in the past with other viruses, the government used the fear to destroy much of the global economy Do you think the number of deaths would have been higher if there had been no lockdowns? Would there have been half-again as many deaths by now? Twice as many? All the health care professionals I have heard in the news say this is NOT comparable to seasonal flu; it's worse. Left unchecked a lot more people would have died by now including a lot more doctors and nurses. How much do you think lives are worth? If the health care system crumbled and was unable to deal with all the other cases that are 'normal' would that have been good for the economy?JVL
May 6, 2020
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Kairosfocus: See Our World in Data, Covid-19 page https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus I think that was the one I was trying to remember! A very good page I think.JVL
May 6, 2020
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The world has yet to reach 300,000 COVID-19 deaths. Even when all pneumonia deaths are used, which is where they get the number for over 60,000 Americans, it has not reached the level of an average influenza season. Over 500,000 people die every year from influenza, yet influenza is rarely called a pandemic. 2 seasons ago it did reach a pandemic level, which resulted in over 80,000 Americans dying. A pandemic is defined as a disease outbreak that spreads across countries or continents. It affects more people and takes more lives than an epidemic. The average flu season does not rise to the level of pandemic. since it does not kill enough people. Projections based on China is the only reason it was expected to become a pandemic, which has not happened. The projections were clearly wrong. The idea that any government had to do something is nothing more than encouraging science-fiction. It was clear the projections were wrong before a single state or country shut down business and started quarantining en mass. Rather than letting cooler heads prevail, which is what happened in the past with other viruses, the government used the fear to destroy much of the global economy. How many factories in China have been shut down?BobRyan
May 6, 2020
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See Our World in Data, Covid-19 page https://ourworldindata.org/coronaviruskairosfocus
May 6, 2020
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Upright BiPed: you are mistaken, I have never reference you to any site whatsoever. Must have been Bornagain77 then. It was a really good site for keeping up with COVID-19 numbers.JVL
May 5, 2020
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. JVL, you are mistaken, I have never reference you to any site whatsoever. If you will recall, my exchange with you had only to do with the physical conditions surrounding self-replication.Upright BiPed
May 5, 2020
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Then there's stories like this . . . do we take this seriously?
The United States is expected to see about 200,000 new COVID-19 cases per day by June 1, with daily deaths hitting 3,000, a leaked Trump administration document shows.
https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/05/us-projects-200000-new-covid-19-cases-per-day-3000-daily-deaths-by-june/JVL
May 5, 2020
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Asauber: So you are defending your religious belief in Worldometers by calling into question any number at all? No, I am merely pointing out that we have no real guarantee that any of the number we read are incredibly accurate. Aside from many asymptomatic cases not being reported at all and many deaths not being linked to COVID-19 and many deaths mistakenly attributed to COVID-19 there are bound to be reporting errors and lags in the systems. And different countries have different methods for determining which deaths are linked to COVID-19. A year from now we'll have much better values to analyse but we've got some now that hopefully are pretty good. I think sites like Worldometers are useful in that they compile a lot of information in one place that's fairly accessible and easy to look at. But I never repeat any of their numbers without giving a proper reference knowing that some other site might disagree. I would trust them over the values that BobRyan reported above because his seemed quite a ways off from every other source I've heard. There was another site that Upright BiPed or Bornagain77 referenced that looked very good but I've forgotten what it was!!JVL
May 5, 2020
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"How do we know any numbers are accurate?" JVL, So you are defending your religious belief in Worldometers by calling into question any number at all? Andrewasauber
May 5, 2020
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Asauber: How do we know the Worldometers numbers are accurate? How do we know any numbers are accurate? I have noticed that the Worldometers' values for the UK are usually fairly close to the official UK government ones if that means anything. There is a page on the Worldometers' site that addresses where they get their values from.JVL
May 5, 2020
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"According to https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ as of today, May 5th, in the US there were/are: 69,925 COVID-19 deaths 955,017 Active cases" How do we know the Worldometers numbers are accurate? Andrewasauber
May 5, 2020
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BobRyan: According to https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ as of today, May 5th, in the US there were/are: 69,925 COVID-19 deaths 955,017 Active cases I don't know why their data would be so much different from what you observed at the CDC . . . how often do they update their displayed data?JVL
May 5, 2020
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BO'H: Once pandemic spread without broad spectrum antivirals being on the table, large numbers of deaths were unavoidable. That's why the world fought so hard to contain Ebola (which may yet break out). We face Covid-19. We have fought to keep from having medical facilities overwhelmed. HCQ cocktails have been championed and are in spreading use. Other treatments are coming, there is some hope of a vaccine. We have been forced to lockdowns, knowing that such are unsustainable as the havoc could trigger depression and widespread death. So, we HAVE to find a way to ease the clampdown. That points to treatments, sustainable distancing and protection [masks], stronger measures for known vulnerable groups such as the elderly and those with preconditions. Commerce, industry, transportation, government and services HAVE to re open soon, or the "cure" may be worse than the disease. KFkairosfocus
May 5, 2020
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Fasteddious - what you're suggesting is essentially the model the UK started with, and which Sweden is following. The problem is that it still means a lot of deaths: many of those young people will become infected, and some will die. And some will visit the elderly, or have to work with them, and will pass the virus into nursing homes. So unless, like Tammie Lee Haynes, you want to (essentially) imprison nursing home workers, what you're suggesting will not be very effective.Bob O'H
May 5, 2020
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