Uncommon Descent Serving The Intelligent Design Community

Darwinism predicts “X.” Oh, you tell me the opposite of “X” happened? Well Darwinism predicted that too.

Share
Facebook
Twitter
LinkedIn
Flipboard
Print
Email

Marx (Karl, not Groucho) predicted that under capitalism workers were bound to become more and more dissatisfied and therefore a workers’ revolution was inevitable.  When workers’ conditions actually improved under capitalism, Lenin modified the theory — of course the workers’ lot is improving; the capitalists are bribing them to keep them pacified, just what the theory predicted would happen.

In Edge, Behe talks about Ernst Mayr’s 1960’s prediction that on Darwinian grounds the search for homologous genes would be quite futile.  Now Darwinists use homologous genes as evidence for the theory; after all the existence of such genes was predicted by the theory (after the fact).

What can you say about a theory that can just as easily predict “X” and the opposite of “X”?

I commend to our readers sections 19 and 20 of Popper’s Logic of Scientific Discovery, in which he discusses “conventionalist stratagems” to rescue a theory from falsification.  Popper writes, “Whenever the ‘classical’ system of the day is threatened by the results of new experiments which might be interpreted as falsifications . . . the system will appear unshaken to the conventionalist.”  Popper goes on to explain the stratagems the conventionalist will use to deal with the inconsistencies that have arisen between the predictions of the theory and the results of experiments:

1.  Blame our inadequate mastery of the system.

2.  Suggest the ad hoc adoption of auxiliary hypotheses.

3.  Suggest corrections to measuring instruments.

4.  Modify definitions used in the theory.

5.  Adopt a skeptical attitude of the observer whose observations threaten the system by excluding his observations from science because (a) they are insufficiently supported; (b) they are unscientific; (c) they are not objective.

6.  Call the experimenter a liar.

Today’s class assignment:  How many of Popper’s “conventionalist stratagems” have been used against Behe’s Edge.  Extra credit for concrete examples.

Comments
Jerry 49-
It is origin of variation that has no support other than the for the trivial in terms of evolution. In terms of medical science it is extremely relevant but not for evolution.
It looks like there's either a word missing or an extra word or two in that first sentence. But if I understand correctly, your main disagreement with the generally accepted scientific theory is that you don't think it is possible that all the changes in the genes are caused by natural/nonintelligent/random processes, but that some changes are so substantial that they must have been the result of intelligent causes. Have I understood correctly?congregate
November 28, 2007
November
11
Nov
28
28
2007
07:45 PM
7
07
45
PM
PDT
congregate, We get Ph.D.'s in biology who wander through here who cannot defend neo Darwinism. Actually that is not completely true because neo Darwinism works very well for the trivial and certainly the genetic side of it is well documented and not much challenged. It is origin of variation that has no support other than the for the trivial in terms of evolution. In terms of medical science it is extremely relevant but not for evolution. Most of us here understand what neo Darwinism is pretty well and know its limitations and its successes. It is a topic that gets discussed quite frequently. What is interesting is that the number of people who wander through here and assume we know nothing. If you have some time, read some things and try to understand just what the debate is all about. Evolution is a fact. It has happened but what the causes are and how new species arrived on the planet is a complete mystery and neo Darwinism utterly fails as an explanation here. It sounds good but as you said the emperor has no clothes.jerry
November 28, 2007
November
11
Nov
28
28
2007
03:28 PM
3
03
28
PM
PDT
Actually I was merely referring to the amount of intergrading forms that must have existed. I for one (many years ago) naively imagined evolutionary progress to be straight lines rather than branching patterns. Put simply, the numbers of intergrading forms must have been innumerable even between relatively minor changes. Horse evolution demonstrates this point, where trivial changes have lead to quite a number of intermediate forms.Acquiesce
November 28, 2007
November
11
Nov
28
28
2007
02:50 PM
2
02
50
PM
PDT
43 Jerry What is one to think? There are several possibilities: 1) There is no answer to the question because the emperor has no clothes, that is, neo Darwinism is false. 2) The question is too vague (what is neo-Darwinism? which parts of it in particular do you doubt?) 3) You are asking the wrong people. If I wanted to find out about the state of the evidence regarding a topic in biology, I probably wouldn't ask the random souls who wander into the comments section of the blog of a philosopher and mathematician.congregate
November 28, 2007
November
11
Nov
28
28
2007
02:46 PM
2
02
46
PM
PDT
45 BarryA- Don't changes in the environment change the landscape? An expedition may reach the top of a hill, spend a few million years there, and then find that the landscape changes, and what was once the top of the hill is now only halfway up?congregate
November 28, 2007
November
11
Nov
28
28
2007
02:37 PM
2
02
37
PM
PDT
Acquiesce, you allude to the "rough landscape." Hill climbing is a metaphor often favored by darwinists (e.g., Dawkins' "Climbing Mount Improbable"). The problem with the metaphor is that the darwinists leave the impression that there is a single hill with smooth sides that are easily climbably in step by step fashion. Other darwinists acknowledge that the metaphor is seriously flawed. The landscape for any darwinian pathway is very rough. It is not a single hill; it is more like the badlands, lots of small hills leading nowhere. In other words, if darwinism is true, it is certain that there will lots of failed expeditions up mount improbable that end up at the top of a small foothill with no way to get down. Why can't they get down? Because they got to the top of the hill by small improvements. The only way to get back down is for those improvements to go away, but darwinism does not allow for progress through retrograde changes, because natural selection, by definition, would weed out any such changes.BarryA
November 28, 2007
November
11
Nov
28
28
2007
02:23 PM
2
02
23
PM
PDT
Jerry [41] "There should be millions of transitions but not one sequence made it into the fossil record. Odds would have said a few would have made it." I think it’s also worth emphasizing that orthodox evolution doesn’t proceed by the shortest direct pathway, but would consist of a multitude of collateral branches (offshoots leading to extinction). Therefore, between every significant change the intergrading forms, as indicated on diagrams, would take in effect the form of a tree, much like the ones drawn up to depict evolution from molecules to man.Acquiesce
November 28, 2007
November
11
Nov
28
28
2007
02:06 PM
2
02
06
PM
PDT
congregate, We continually ask those who support neo Darwinism for empirical evidence to support their position and not once have we had a taker who could provide any. There are many who asserts generalities but no one steps up to the plate and delivers. What is one to think?jerry
November 28, 2007
November
11
Nov
28
28
2007
02:06 PM
2
02
06
PM
PDT
Denial is rampant in the evolution debate.
Truer words were never typed.congregate
November 28, 2007
November
11
Nov
28
28
2007
01:49 PM
1
01
49
PM
PDT
congregate, The bottom line is that there is not one single example of a gradual transition to something new. You can certainly believe what you want but the best that has been offered is one with millions of years between fossils and substantial differences between each of the intermediaries. There should be millions of transitions but not one sequence made it into the fossil record. Odds would have said a few would have made it. There is almost no fossils from the pre Cambrian so I am not sure what you mean. Nearly all the phyla popped out of nowhere during the early Cambrian with no obvious predecessors. As I said believe what you want. Denial is rampant in the evolution debate.jerry
November 28, 2007
November
11
Nov
28
28
2007
01:43 PM
1
01
43
PM
PDT
Matt says:
But, hey, without darwinism, it’s hard to be an atheist/secularist/humanist.
o, intelligent design proponents manage it fine.alext
November 28, 2007
November
11
Nov
28
28
2007
12:20 PM
12
12
20
PM
PDT
Jerry 34-
If naturalistic evolution occurred on any path, it would leave forensic evidence of the sequence of changes. Since nothing in the fossil record indicates any sequence on any path other than a few fossils millions of years apart it is assumed that there were no transitions. Paleontologist have been sampling all the time eras and continue to get fossils already discovered instead of possible new transitions. Occasionally they get a new fossil. So whatever path evolution supposedly took, it did it without a trace.
Well, there is enough evidence in the fossil record to convince a lot of people (when combined with other lines of evidence). As I understand it there are explanations for why the fossil record reflects long periods of stasis. For example, evolutionary change tends to happen more quickly in small populations, which leave fewer fossils.
The fossil record would need hundreds of millions of transitions for all the species but essentially shows none. You would expect a few really good transitions out of these millions that had to have happened.
I'm not sure again what would qualify in your mind as a transition. Do Tiktalik and the land animal to whale transitions not qualify? If not, what is missing?
Also there is no evidence in the current world or recent times of any transitions to new species that are not just trivial changes. Here there is no lack of fossilization problem All we see is relatively small changes based on minor variations in already occurring species. No novelty developing.
This certainly suggests to me that any designer is not currently active. Given that (1) the evolution of novelty via step-by-step mutations would, I assume, generally take a very long time, and (2) we don't know in the present what current species might be transitioning to, so we only have one half of the evidence, I don't think it's a major blow against accepted evolutionary theory.
Any way you slice it the changes over time have been sudden and dramatic. Not something any reasonable change in DNA could likely accomplish through naturalistic means.
How do you define "sudden"? It has been going on for hundreds of millions of years, and even the pre-Cambrian "explosion" took millions of years.congregate
November 28, 2007
November
11
Nov
28
28
2007
09:26 AM
9
09
26
AM
PDT
The value of Darwinism is not a scientific one, but a philosophical one. If it hadn't been for the use they give it (against CHristianity), this theory would have been long discarded. But, hey, without darwinism, it's hard to be an atheist/secularist/humanist.Mats
November 28, 2007
November
11
Nov
28
28
2007
05:35 AM
5
05
35
AM
PDT
I don’t see how any predictions can be based on the intelligent design intuition.
And just what predictions can be madfe from culled genetic accidents? Or how about a prediction based on the cosmic lottery scenario? (meaning the anti-ID position is nothing more than sheer dumb luck)? Pleasae read Intelligent Design: The Design Hypothesis for some ID predictions. The main mechanism for change (in the ID scenario) would be non-random mutations, ala Dr Spetner's "built-in responses to environmental cues"- ie organisms were designed to evolve. But I digress- please readJoseph
November 28, 2007
November
11
Nov
28
28
2007
05:34 AM
5
05
34
AM
PDT
Another good example today on the Fox news webpage. In the science section there is a story about the big bang of flowering plants. Apparently rapid change over time followed by millions of years of statis fits perfectly with RM + NS which is supposed to occur gradually. Evolution is a unique "science" which never has to verify a prediction and does not require provable pathways. Could you image a chemist that made a claim that he knew how to create a compound. But he could not say how to actually create it and every prediction was wrong. Such a chemist would quickly be out of a job. http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,313262,00.htmlPeter
November 28, 2007
November
11
Nov
28
28
2007
05:03 AM
5
05
03
AM
PDT
Jerry, Thank you so much for that EXTREMELY clear posting. Excellent. I recommend a gold star for you too. How about it, BarryA! I wish that Tyke and maybe Dave557 & others who seem so convinced the fossil record actually supports macro-evolution would read your post & give it some open-heart consideration. This is my first entry here, I just stumbled in from a path to the "Vestigial organs, anyone? ..." log. I'm very impressed overall with the very civil discourse I've seen here. I'm a young-earth creationist (Sorry Tyke! :-) - but I do enjoy a healthy, respectful discussion w/ those I disagree & agree with. I learn from both.Mr.Schmooo
November 28, 2007
November
11
Nov
28
28
2007
02:07 AM
2
02
07
AM
PDT
congregate, If naturalistic evolution occurred on any path, it would leave forensic evidence of the sequence of changes. Since nothing in the fossil record indicates any sequence on any path other than a few fossils millions of years apart it is assumed that there were no transitions. Paleontologist have been sampling all the time eras and continue to get fossils already discovered instead of possible new transitions. Occasionally they get a new fossil. So whatever path evolution supposedly took, it did it without a trace. There are plenty of examples of shells changing gradually but the animal within the shell was essential the same. There is nothing which shows the development of novelty. There are a few attempts to maybe show a dinosaur to bird transition but this is highly speculative especially since the bird has a unique oxygen delivery system which would have had to be present with the dinosaurs and then where did they get it. The oxygen delivery system is necessary for flight but not necessary for land animals like a dinosaur. The fossil record would need hundreds of millions of transitions for all the species but essentially shows none. You would expect a few really good transitions out of these millions that had to have happened. Also there is no evidence in the current world or recent times of any transitions to new species that are not just trivial changes. Here there is no lack of fossilization problem All we see is relatively small changes based on minor variations in already occurring species. No novelty developing. Any way you slice it the changes over time have been sudden and dramatic. Not something any reasonable change in DNA could likely accomplish through naturalistic means.jerry
November 27, 2007
November
11
Nov
27
27
2007
08:55 PM
8
08
55
PM
PDT
Patrick 30:
Of course that particular prediction would not confirm ID! It’s a prediction based upon the estimated limitations of Darwinian mechanisms, not design detection.
I'm sorry, I thought your prediction was a response to my request for predictions based on ID.
Further prediction: congregrate will never provide positive evidence for Darwinism.
If you are a regular here, I'm sure you have reviewed the generally accepted evidence for biological evolution. And I take it you have not found it to be convincing evidence for "Darwinism". I am not a scientist myself; I have no new evidence to present you. If by "Darwinism" you mean evolution without the involvement of any intelligent cause (defined to include an omnipotent creator of the universe), I can't conceive of any evidence for Darwinism that would be convincing. As far as I can see, any state of the evidence is consistent with such a cause.congregate
November 27, 2007
November
11
Nov
27
27
2007
07:43 PM
7
07
43
PM
PDT
BarryA 31 I haven't read Edge (from the descriptions I've seen in various places I wouldn't be able to follow it). If it is possible for you to condense it for me, how does it rule out chance and necessity for any complex novelty? Is the malaria example enough to do so? How do we know whether a fossil is of an intermediate form? In the generally accepted view (as I understand it, I am not a biologist or any other kind of scientist) each thing in the fossil record is part of a series of organisms from the last universal common ancestor to its current (or final) descendent. So in some sense everything (except the first and the last in each line) is an intermediate form. More narrowly, is an intermediate form one that shows characteristics of an earlier form and a later one? That's kind of a fuzzy definition.congregate
November 27, 2007
November
11
Nov
27
27
2007
07:28 PM
7
07
28
PM
PDT
There are three types of “causes” 1. chance 2. mechanical necessity 3. intelligent agency In Edge Behe rules out causes 1 and 2 for ANY complex novelty in the genome. This leaves agency as the best explanation for the data. Turning to the fossil record, Darwin was absolutely correct when he stated that if his theory were true (i.e., if complexity resulted from chance and necessity), then there must have been a truly enormous number of intermediate forms. Indeed, the fossil record should be predominately intermediate forms. The fact that there are no (or at least very very few) intermediate forms in the fossil record, falsifies chance and necessity as the cause of changes in species over time. This in turn leaves agency as the best explanation for the data. Ergo, sudden appearance and stasis are not only negative evidence for chance and necessity, they are positive evidence for design.BarryA
November 27, 2007
November
11
Nov
27
27
2007
05:25 PM
5
05
25
PM
PDT
Of course that particular prediction would not confirm ID! It's a prediction based upon the estimated limitations of Darwinian mechanisms, not design detection. EDIT: Although, having thought about if further, while not direct positive evidence for design detection it would indirectly confirm a prediction of ID that Darwinian mechanisms are incapable of producing CSI, which is a identifier for intelligence. I also noticed you completely ignored the fact that a previous prediction of ID related to "junk DNA" has been confirmed. Further prediction: congregrate will never provide positive evidence for Darwinism. ;)Patrick
November 27, 2007
November
11
Nov
27
27
2007
04:14 PM
4
04
14
PM
PDT
Patrick at 15:
Here’s a prediction: Make a designer drug where in order for resistance to evolve there must be 3 or more protein-to-protein binding sites that cannot develop through a direct stepwise pathway. The viruses or bacterium will be incapable of evolving resistance.
On bref consideration, this experiment and result does not strike me as providing very convincing support for intelligent design. The fact that evolution does not occur along one particular path in a laboratory experiment would not be enough to convince me that intelligent intervention is necessary to explain any of the evidence seen in the world. Selective hyperskepticism, perhaps.congregate
November 27, 2007
November
11
Nov
27
27
2007
03:06 PM
3
03
06
PM
PDT
congregate try blockquote>Bettawrekonize
November 27, 2007
November
11
Nov
27
27
2007
02:59 PM
2
02
59
PM
PDT
Sorry, my formatting efforts came to naught. Barry at 13:
Sure, ID predicts that organisms will be relatively stable until they are changed through a directed process. It predicts that there will not be numerous successive slight modifications among species, so that the fossil record will show bursts of activity and then stasis over long periods of time.
How does that prediction follow from the ID intuition (some things in the universe are so complex that they must have arisen from intelligent intervention)? It seems plausible, and is certainly consistent with the evidence, but it is just as easy to imagine a designer who makes minor changes on a regular basis, isn't it? An intelligent designer might work by looking in on his design every day and gently nudging here and touching up there, couldn't it?congregate
November 27, 2007
November
11
Nov
27
27
2007
02:55 PM
2
02
55
PM
PDT
congregate, It may not be the death knell to darwinism, but it has convinced me. I mean, if malaria won't evolve over those generations, would an elephant that reproduces very very slowly evolve very fast? Perhaps its color or size or whether it has hair or not, but are there really as many generations of elephants and its ancestors as malaria? Certainly not. Elephants' gestational period is something like 13 months. How many generations does it take to have large morphological changes?Collin
November 27, 2007
November
11
Nov
27
27
2007
02:54 PM
2
02
54
PM
PDT
Barry at 12: [blockquote] How about this as a prediction for ID: Over thousands of generations and countless trillions of organisms, random Darwinian processes will be unable to account for any novelty in the genome of the malaria parasite even when selection pressures are extremely intense.[/blockquote] This is not a prediction from ID, it is a prediction of anti-evolution. The fact that one particular series of events (the history of malaria) did not show sufficient evolutionary change to convince everyone here of the absence of intelligence is not evidence of intelligent intervention anywhere else. I think it is a huge leap to conclude that what hasn't happened in malaria in the last one hundred years has never happened. Perhaps there is some relevant difference between the biological situation of modern malaria and, for example, pre-Cambrian goo. Hope my formatting worked, I tried to follow the hints upthread.congregate
November 27, 2007
November
11
Nov
27
27
2007
02:36 PM
2
02
36
PM
PDT
Congregate wrote:
If a prediction is not correct the scientist has learned something and moves on to make a new prediction. Isn’t that pretty much how science works?
But there seems to be very little whistleblowing. The public is given the impression that things are mostly worked out. Every popular article (and journal article?) on the subject is offered as yet another several pages on the stack of "overwhelming evidence" supporting NDE.russ
November 27, 2007
November
11
Nov
27
27
2007
01:03 PM
1
01
03
PM
PDT
Bettawreck' Your quotes didn't work because this blog requires the word "blockquote" not "quote". Otherwise, your format is correct.russ
November 27, 2007
November
11
Nov
27
27
2007
12:56 PM
12
12
56
PM
PDT
I didn't think you would be Barry. But it seemed worth at least double checking. You know the whole, "Well I trust you but this seems like too tall a tale to believe". I guess I shouldn't be surprised that those unread in history and philosophy would also be unread in the philosophy of science.Jason Rennie
November 27, 2007
November
11
Nov
27
27
2007
12:52 PM
12
12
52
PM
PDT
Off topic but good point Patrick it's important prediction that human intelligence is more than capable breaking the bacterias and viruses capability to evolve resistance through RM+NS. Thats why the limit of evolution should be known precisely. It's a real shame that some people are not willing to do that because of idealogical reasons. As Patric says it's possible to defeat mother nature by developing designer drugs by discovering "islands of non-functionality" in which there is no possibility of simple or stepwise evolutionary pathway for a resistance. What one needs to know to do that: a) A drug and how the drug breaks the bacteria or virus b) All possible stepwise evolutionary pathways for resistance for that drug c) How fast on average the drug kills the virus or bacteria d) Rate of evolution/limit of evolution e) Probability that a resistance evolvesInnerbling
November 27, 2007
November
11
Nov
27
27
2007
12:51 PM
12
12
51
PM
PDT
1 2 3 4

Leave a Reply