Uncommon Descent Serving The Intelligent Design Community

Darwinism predicts “X.” Oh, you tell me the opposite of “X” happened? Well Darwinism predicted that too.

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Marx (Karl, not Groucho) predicted that under capitalism workers were bound to become more and more dissatisfied and therefore a workers’ revolution was inevitable.  When workers’ conditions actually improved under capitalism, Lenin modified the theory — of course the workers’ lot is improving; the capitalists are bribing them to keep them pacified, just what the theory predicted would happen.

In Edge, Behe talks about Ernst Mayr’s 1960’s prediction that on Darwinian grounds the search for homologous genes would be quite futile.  Now Darwinists use homologous genes as evidence for the theory; after all the existence of such genes was predicted by the theory (after the fact).

What can you say about a theory that can just as easily predict “X” and the opposite of “X”?

I commend to our readers sections 19 and 20 of Popper’s Logic of Scientific Discovery, in which he discusses “conventionalist stratagems” to rescue a theory from falsification.  Popper writes, “Whenever the ‘classical’ system of the day is threatened by the results of new experiments which might be interpreted as falsifications . . . the system will appear unshaken to the conventionalist.”  Popper goes on to explain the stratagems the conventionalist will use to deal with the inconsistencies that have arisen between the predictions of the theory and the results of experiments:

1.  Blame our inadequate mastery of the system.

2.  Suggest the ad hoc adoption of auxiliary hypotheses.

3.  Suggest corrections to measuring instruments.

4.  Modify definitions used in the theory.

5.  Adopt a skeptical attitude of the observer whose observations threaten the system by excluding his observations from science because (a) they are insufficiently supported; (b) they are unscientific; (c) they are not objective.

6.  Call the experimenter a liar.

Today’s class assignment:  How many of Popper’s “conventionalist stratagems” have been used against Behe’s Edge.  Extra credit for concrete examples.

Comments
Jason, I'm not pulling any legs. I had my copy of Logic open as I typed this post.BarryA
November 27, 2007
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I assume Barry that the answer to the question "How many of Popper’s “conventionalist stratagems” have been used against Behe’s Edge", is, "All of them". Though I must ask Barry. You are not just pulling every bodies leg with the 6 criteria are you ? Surely the anti-ID folks could not be so ill read as to so perfectly illustrate Poppers ideas with such rank idiocy ? I don't have a copy of Logic of Scientific Discovery to hand to check, so I figured i'd ask.Jason Rennie
November 27, 2007
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Hilarious trend. A theory that gets weaker and weaker as new data is found cannot be true.Mats
November 27, 2007
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Bettawrekonize. Excellent. Gold star. Sorry BA77BarryA
November 27, 2007
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Modify the definitions used in the theory. Here is one. The word junk (as in Junk DNA) had always meant useless. Everyone had understood junk DNA to mean useless DNA. [quote] In 1995, Scientific American plainly expounded that under the Neo-Darwinian view, "[t]hese regions have traditionally been regarded as useless accumulations of material from millions of years of evolution." [/quote] http://www.ideacenter.org/contentmgr/showdetails.php/id/1437 Even Dembski said [quote] [Intelligent] design is not a science stopper. Indeed, design can foster inquiry where traditional evolutionary approaches obstruct it. Consider the term "junk DNA." Implicit in this term is the view that because the genome of an organism has been cobbled together through a long, undirected evolutionary process, the genome is a patchwork of which only limited portions are essential to the organism. Thus on an evolutionary view we expect a lot of useless DNA. If, on the other hand, organisms are designed, we expect DNA, as much as possible, to exhibit function. And indeed, the most recent findings suggest that designating DNA as "junk" merely cloaks our current lack of knowledge about function. For instance, in a recent issue of the Journal of Theoretical Biology, John Bodnar describes how "non-coding DNA in eukaryotic genomes encodes a language which programs organismal growth and development." Design encourages scientists to look for function where evolution discourages it. [/quote] Now it's discovered that much of this alleged junk DNA is much more useful than darwinists had originally predicted so they change the definition of the word junk DNA. [quote] When challenged by someone with the argument that God would not have created us with 97 per cent of redundant or useless DNA, Brenner is said to have retorted, "I said it was 'junk' DNA, not 'trash'. Everyone knows that you throw away trash. But junk we keep in the attic until there may be some need for it." [/quote] http://www.researchintelligentdesign.org/wiki/Junk_DNABettawrekonize
November 27, 2007
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Here's a prediction: Make a designer drug where in order for resistance to evolve there must be 3 or more protein-to-protein binding sites that cannot develop through a direct stepwise pathway. The viruses or bacterium will be incapable of evolving resistance. Oh, and here is an old UD page on predictions.Patrick
November 27, 2007
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Some pertinent quotes:
"The first rule for any scientific hypothesis ought to be that it is at least possible to conceive of an observation that would contradict the theory. For what good is a theory that is guaranteed by its internal logical structure to agree with all conceivable observations, irrespective of the real structure of the world? If scientists are going to use logically unbeatable theories about the world, they might as well give up natural science and take up religion. Yet is that not exactly the situation with regard to Darwinism? The theory of evolution by natural selection states that changes in the inherited characters of species occur, giving rise to differentiation in space and time, because different genetical types leave different numbers of offspring in different environments. ... Such a theory can never be falsified, for it asserts that some environmental difference created the conditions for natural selection of a new character. It is existentially quantified so that the failure to find the environmental factor proves nothing, except that one has not looked hard enough. Can one really imagine observations about nature that would disprove natural selection as a cause of the difference in bill size? The theory of natural selection is then revealed as metaphysical rather than scientific. Natural selection explains nothing because it explains everything."
(Lewontin, R.C., "Testing the Theory of Natural Selection," Review of Creed R., ed., "Ecological Genetics and Evolution," Blackwell: Oxford, 1971, in Nature, Vol. 236, March 24, 1972, p.181)
"The scientific establishment bears a grisly resemblance to the Spanish Inquisition. Either you accept the rules and attitudes and beliefs promulgated by the 'papacy' (for which read, perhaps, the Royal Society or the Royal College of Physicians), or face a dreadful retribution. We will not actually burn you at the stake, because that sanction, unhappily, is now no longer available under our milksop laws. But we will make damned sure that you are a dead duck in our trade."
(Gould, D.W., "Letting poetry loose in the laboratory," New Scientist, 29 August 1992, p.51)
"The principal problem is morphological stasis. A theory is only as good as its predictions, and conventional neo-Darwinism, which claims to be a comprehensive explanation of evolutionary process, has failed to predict the widespread long-term morphological stasis now recognized as one of the most striking aspects of the fossil record."
(Williamson, Peter G. [Assistant Professor of Geology, Harvard University], "Morphological stasis and developmental constraint: real problems for neo-Darwinism," Nature, Vol. 294, 19 November 1981, p.214)Borne
November 27, 2007
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congregate writes: “Does the ID “theory” predict how organisms will change or over time? Or that they will not change over time? Does it predict that fossils with certain characteristics will be found in certain strata in certain locations?” Sure, ID predicts that organisms will be relatively stable until they are changed through a directed process. It predicts that there will not be numerous successive slight modifications among species, so that the fossil record will show bursts of activity and then stasis over long periods of time.BarryA
November 27, 2007
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congregate writes: “I don’t see how any predictions can be based on the intelligent design intuition.” How about this as a prediction for ID: Over thousands of generations and countless trillions of organisms, random Darwinian processes will be unable to account for any novelty in the genome of the malaria parasite even when selection pressures are extremely intense. Therefore, since random processes cannot account for even trivial novelty in a simple cell over countless trillions of attempts (far more attempts than all mammals that have ever existed) a non-random (i.e., directed process) must be responsible for the mind boggling complexity and diversity of life.BarryA
November 27, 2007
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congregate writes: Various scientists make varying predictions based on their understandings of the facts and the theory. Some predictions are correct others are not. If a prediction is not correct the scientist has learned something and moves on to make a new prediction. Isn’t that pretty much how science works? Yes, science does work that way to a certain extent, and Popper says as much. But there are limits. There is a difference between a theory that must be tweaked to account for new data, and a theory that is so malleable that it can account for all seemingly disconfirming data. That is the point of the Marx illustration; a theory so flexible that it can continually account for X and the opposite of X, whatever X happens to be is a theory that, like Marxism, explains everything which is the same as explaining nothing.BarryA
November 27, 2007
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BA77, no apple polishing. ;-)BarryA
November 27, 2007
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Various scientists make varying predictions based on their understandings of the facts and the theory. Some predictions are correct others are not. If a prediction is not correct the scientist has learned something and moves on to make a new prediction. Isn't that pretty much how science works? I don't see how any predictions can be based on the intelligent design intuition. As far as I can see, an unknown designer with unknown capabilities can choose X or not X. Does the ID "theory" predict how organisms will change or over time? Or that they will not change over time? Does it predict that fossils with certain characteristics will be found in certain strata in certain locations?congregate
November 27, 2007
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In Edge, Behe talks about Ernst Mayr’s 1960’s prediction that on Darwinian grounds the search for homologous genes would be quite futile. Now Darwinists use homologous genes as evidence for the theory
iss the entire theory reliant on what Mayr predicts in the 1960s then?alext
November 27, 2007
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Here is Nick Matzke at his sincere best. He is replying directly to someone calling Behe a liar. "BobC said: He is obsessed with randomness? No, Behe is obsessed with making money by constantly lying about everything. He couldn’t possibly believe anything in the books he writes, nobody could be that stupid. Like everyone else who works for the Disco Institute, Behe’s job is to be a liar. Behe has what it takes to keep lying no matter what, not caring that every sane person knows he’s a liar. His customers, the god-did-it everything-is-magic creationists trust Behe, and that’s all he cares about. Comment #133508 on October 31, 2007 12:59 AM | Quote Nick (Matzke) said: BobC – Here is a bit of Zen and the Art of Creationism Fighting for you… 1. Creationists usually believe what they say. 2. Even when it seems like they couldn’t possibly believe what they say, they probably do. 3. Usually they don’t actually know much at all about what they are talking about, but it is this exact fact, plus a combination of high ego and low capacity for self-reflection or self-checking – oh, and a deep, deep longing to prove their theology to the world and to themselves with secular data – that gives them the ability to expound confidently on the topics without a trace of shame. 3.5. Biblical inerrancy, or lacking that a very conservative view of the Bible or other holy text, is a fundamental premise for most of these guys. If you start with that premise then if the mere scientific data seems to be contradicting your preferred reading, then so much the worse for the data. 4. Then add in Morton’s Demon when they start to encounter critics, and you have got the basics of a real understanding of ID/creationist psychology. Harry Frankfurt’s little book “On [BS]” (see wikipedia) is a useful window into this. Frankfurt points out that liars and BSers are different. Liars actually respect the truth, in the sense that they know the truth and then try to subvert it. BSers, on the other hand, are just so sure they’re right they never bother to really check anything out thoroughly, never test their claims, and generally just hold forth, oblivious to countervailing data. Frankfurt concludes that BSers are actually more dangerous enemies of truth than liars are." Notice how Matzke who completely understands the ID/creationist distinction turns a comment about Behe into a creationist tirade. Maybe Matzke should re-read his own comments and figure out whether he is a liar or a BSer.jerry
November 27, 2007
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First the theory of evolution does not make any predictions based on the proposed mechanisms. Even Dan Dennett tells us there is no way to predict what will be selected for at any point in time. When Dr Behe suggested that evos start an experiment to show a bacterial flagellum could evolve with agency involvement, evos surely invoked #1-Blame our inadequate mastery of the system. And if Dr Behe tried the experiment they would have invoked #6- Call the experimenter a liar. Even the idiotic falsification of finding a pre-cam rabbit is bogus because the next find could be that there are the required pre-cursors below that wascally wabbit.Joseph
November 27, 2007
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Do I get a gold star too? "ID is not credible because Michael Behe is a liar." "Behe what he is: an ignorant liar." "The problem is that Behe is a proven liar and all-around bad person" "It always unravels to: Behe - Liar Dembski - Liar, Berlinski - Liar" "I was somewhat taken-a-back by the caller who was so very insistent about Michael Behe being shown to be a liar by the Dover Court!" "Michael Behe has been called as an expert witness for the defense (aka, ... I think that it's been hammered home that he's a bold face liar." "Pity Michael Behe, who at least showed up to the trial and did undergo that cross-examination, who now has to put up with Casey Luskin calling him a liar" Your search for Behe found the following documents (of 1076 documents) ... 1 A "Moron" and a "Liar" etc...etc...etc...bornagain77
November 27, 2007
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How about an oxymoronic theory? ''A theory that claims to predict opposite results, typically the result of advocates changing their predictions in an effort to preserve their theory.''
oxymoron An oxymoron (plural oxymora) is a figure of speech that combines two normally contradictory terms. Oxymoron is a Greek term derived from oxy ("sharp") and moros ("dull"). Thus the word oxymoron is itself an oxymoron. . . . Oxymora can also be ''wooden irons'' in that they are in violation of the ''Principle of contradiction'' which asserts that nothing can be thought if it contains contradictory characteristics, predicates, attributes, or qualities.
Wikipedia DLH
November 27, 2007
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Not a tautology. A tautology is something like "X is X". I would say, on the overall subject, that a failed prediction doesn't necessitate a paradigm to be hopelessly flawed. Modifications to any meta-narrative (in biology, history, theology, etc.) will be necessary. (In theology, I would apply this to the fact that I've changed certain eschatological beliefs of mine, but the essential core has stayed the same. New data or information or challenges help me modify and refine my views.) The big problem is we are dealing with a philosophy. Naturalism. And what this post points out is that we are dealing with a philosophy/theory that has no predictive value for biology. Everything that exists is solely due to natural forces. X exists. X is due to natural forces.geoffrobinson
November 27, 2007
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What can you say about a theory that can just as easily predict “X” and the opposite of “X”? Err, uhh, a tautology?jstanley01
November 27, 2007
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Barry Great post! I'd add, that it's becoming more and more clear exactly how these kind of practices by the materialists are "actively undermining scientific inquiry" -- just as the "Uncommon Descent holds that" blurb at the top of this blog says! The links, from my comments in a previous post, perhaps bear reiterating here. Dr. Ioannidis on Bad Science Why Most Published Research Findings Are False (PDF)jstanley01
November 27, 2007
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