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Darwin’s Nemesis due out in April

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Here’s some publicity from IVP for the forthcoming Phil Johnson festschrift — Darwin’s Nemesis. I was able last minute to insert some brief comment about Dover into the preface, which I give below:

Darwin's Nemesis

Life after Dover

On December 20, 2005, as this book was going to press, Judge John E. Jones III rendered his verdict in the first court case involving intelligent design. In Kitzmiller v. Dover, also billed as Scopes II, Judge Jones not only struck down the Dover school board policy advocating intelligent design but also identified intelligent design as nonscientific and fundamentally religious. Accordingly, he concluded that the teaching of intelligent design in public school science curricula violates the Establishment Clause and therefore is unconstitutional.

It is hard to imagine that a court decision could have been formulated more negatively against intelligent design (for the actual decision, see www .pamd.uscourts.gov/kitzmiller/kitzmiller_342.pdf). In light of this decision, one may therefore wonder about the appropriateness of titling this book Darwin’s Nemesis. To read Judge Jones’s decision, one gets the impression that Darwin is alive and quite well. Even so, let me suggest that this decision is a bump in the road and that Phillip Johnson’s program for dismantling Darwinism remains well in hand.

To see that Judge Jones’s decision is not nearly the setback for intelligent design that its critics would like to imagine, let’s start by considering what would have happened if the judge had ruled in favor of the Dover policy. Such a ruling would have emboldened school boards, legislators, and grass roots organizations to push for intelligent design in the public school science curricula across the nation. As a consequence, this case really would have been a Waterloo for the supporters of neo-Darwinian evolution (the form of evolution taught in all the textbooks).

Conversely, the actual ruling is not a Waterloo for the intelligent design side. Certainly it will put a damper on some school boards that would otherwise have been interested in promoting intelligent design. But this is not a Supreme Court decision. Nor is it likely this decision will be appealed since the Dover school board that instituted the controversial policy supporting intelligent design was voted out and replaced November 2005 with a new board that campaigned on the promise of overturning the policy.

Without an explicit Supreme Court decision against intelligent design, we can expect continued grass roots pressure to promote intelligent design and undercut neo-Darwinian evolution in the public schools. Because of Kitzmiller v. Dover, school boards and state legislators may tread more cautiously, but tread on evolution they will — the culture war demands it!

It is therefore naive to think that this case threatens to derail intelligent design. Intelligent design is rapidly gaining an international following. It is also crossing metaphysical and theological boundaries. I now correspond with ID proponents from every continent (save Antarctica). Moreover, I’ve seen intelligent design embraced by Jews, Muslims, Hindus, Buddhists, agnostics, and even atheists. The idea that intelligent design is purely an “American thing” or an “evangelical Christian thing” can therefore no longer be maintained.

Even if the courts manage to censor intelligent design at the grade and high school levels (and with the Internet censorship means nothing to the enterprising student), they remain powerless to censor intelligent design at the college and university levels. Intelligent design is quickly gaining momentum among college and graduate students. Three years ago, there was one IDEA Center at the University of California at San Diego (IDEA = Intelligent Design and Evolution Awareness—see ). Now there are thirty such centers at American colleges and universities, including the University of California at Berkeley and Cornell University. These centers are fiercely pro-intelligent design.

Ultimately, the significance of a court case like Kitzmiller v. Dover depends not on a judge’s decision but on the cultural forces that serve as the backdrop against which the decision is made. Take the Scopes Trial. In most persons’ minds, it represents a decisive victory for evolution. Yet, in the actual trial, the decision went against evolution (John Scopes was convicted of violating a Tennessee statute that forbade the teaching of evolution).

Judge Jones’s decision may make life in the short term more difficult for ID proponents. But the work of intelligent design will continue. In fact, it is likely to continue more effectively than if the judge had ruled in favor of intelligent design, which would have encouraged complacency, suggesting that intelligent design had already won the day when in fact intelligent design still has much to accomplish in developing its scientific and intellectual program.

Instead of ruling narrowly on the actual Dover policy, Judge Jones saw his chance to enter the history books by assuming an activist role, ruling broadly, and declaring intelligent design to be unconstitutional. Yet, if he and his ruling are remembered at all, it will be not for valiantly defending science but for pandering to a failed reductionist way of doing science.

Just as a tree that has been ringed (i.e., had its bark completely cut through on all sides) is effectively dead even if it retains its leaves and appears alive, so Darwinism has met its match with the movement initiated by Phillip Johnson. Expect Darwinism’s death throes, like Judge Jones’s decision, to continue for some time. But don’t mistake death throes for true vitality. Ironically, Judge Jones’s decision is likely to prove a blessing for the intelligent design movement, spurring its proponents to greater heights and thereby fostering its intellectual vitality and ultimate success.

Comments
Dear j sorry, didn't mean for this to become adversarial---to be fair, we've both probably repeated our points a few times. I'd still like to try and summarise. I believe that it is *possible* that if you run realistic simulations of RM+NS over much larger timescales, you will see complexity and diversity emerge eventually. I think you believe that *if* this complexity and diversity were to emerge, they would have done on the simulations run already. I think these are beliefs to some extent which is why we probably have been repeating our POVs! all the bestphysicist
January 25, 2006
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Answers to each of your reponses can be found either explicitly or implicitly in things I've already said. "The length of time it took complexity and diversity to emerge on earth is much longer than one can run a computer programme to accurately simulate RM+NS." It does not need to be a replica of the physical world (post #77). This would permit generational timespans to be reduced by millions or billions of times (post #84). Again, the idea is that the computer model of Darwinian evolution would be an abstraction of what, per the theory, is supposed to occur in the physical world. It would consist of "digital organisms," a la Avida, with no correlation with actual organisms in the real world. Google "artificial life" to see what I mean. "Does this mean that the theory of classical fluid dynamics underlying the weather is wrong, in your opinion?" No. It means that it is subject to the effects of chaos (post #46), as many, many systems are. So what. CFD analyses on a supercomputer that (attempt to) predict the weather don't fail to generate any semblance of the phenomena they are meant to model. Models of Darwinian evolution do fail to generate open-ended increases in diversity and functional complexity, the phenomena that they are meant to model. "Again, I suggest you try to predict the weather over a period of time longer than a few days. You won’t be able to predict the appearance of new fronts, storms etc (complexity!) in advance." Again, I am not looking for long-term accuract, just a proof of concept. (post #90) Since I'm having to repeat myself (see indicated posts), I'm done on this thread.j
January 23, 2006
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j, I really think we're talking at cross-purposes. The length of time it took complexity and diversity to emerge on earth is much longer than one can run a computer programme to accurately simulate RM+NS. What else can I say? "Seems to me it’s the theory, and not our computational power, that’s insufficient for the task." Well, you seem to be ruling out any theory for which it is not possible to accurately calculate predictions on a computer, over arbitrary timescales. Fair enough, that is your opinion, but this is not a usual criterion for deciding whether a scientific theory is sufficient. For me all it says something about is our current computing power. Again, I suggest you try to predict the weather over a period of time longer than a few days. You won't be able to predict the appearance of new fronts, storms etc (complexity!) in advance. Does this mean that the theory of classical fluid dynamics underlying the weather is wrong, in your opinion?physicist
January 23, 2006
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"Complexity and diversity is proposed to arise after billions of years of evolution..." Not so. While it's true that it's been billions of years since the advent of life on earth, after only a fraction of that time, complex life-forms were already in existence. From "Rare Earth: Why Complex Life is Uncommon in the Universe" (pp. 57& 61) by Peter D. Ward (Professor of Geological Sciences and Curator of Paleontology at U of Washington) and Donald Brownlee (Professor of Astronomy at the U of Washington), both of whom are not ID proponents, by the way: "Life seems to have appeared on this planet somewhere between 4.1 and 3.9 billion years ago, or some 0.5 to 0.7 billion years after Earth originated. However, the fact that no fossils were preserved at this time in Earth's history clouds our understanding of life's earliest incarnation. The oldest fossils that we do find are from rocks about 3.6 billion years of age, and they look identical to bacteria still on Earth today... The Earth formed about 4.5 to 4.6 billion years ago from the accretion of variously sized 'planetesimals,' or small bodies of rock and frozen gases. For the first several hundred million years of its existence, a heavy bombardment of meteors pelted the planet with lashing violence. Both the lava-like temperatures of Earth's forming surface and the energy released by the barrage of incoming meteors during this heavy bombardment phase would surely have created conditions inhospitable to life... Most scientists are confident that life had already arisen (sic) 3.8 to 3.9 billion years ago... As soon as the rain of asteroids ceased and the surface temperatures of Earth permanently fell below the boiling point of water, life seems to have appeared." "let me just sum up my position by saying that I don’t think our relative lack of computational power gives any indication of whether RM+NS is consistent with the observed diversity and complexity." Seems to me it's the theory, and not our computational power, that's insufficient for the task. "There are many theories that are very hard to model by computer, and in general the difficult gets harder over longer timescales." No doubt. But, again, I'm not looking for long-range accuracy, just proof of concept.j
January 22, 2006
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j, let me just sum up my position by saying that I don't think our relative lack of computational power gives any indication of whether RM+NS is consistent with the observed diversity and complexity. There are many theories that are very hard to model by computer, and in general the difficult gets harder over longer timescales.physicist
January 21, 2006
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Hi Davescot I don't want to sound patronising but I think this is a very reasonable and fair comment you made: "For a Darwinian pathway for the flagellum I’d say the claim that one might exist is still reasonable but the onus is on the supporters of the Darwinian pathway theory to find it and until they do then the ID hypothesis that the flagellum is intelligently designed is a live possibility." I am an ID skeptic, and IMO the onus is not on the supporters of Darwinian pathway theory to find it; however, to some extent this is just a matter of opinion, so I basically agree with your statement: the issue is (unfortunately) undecided. One thing we can definitely agree on is that it would be very interesting to decide the issue one way or another!physicist
January 21, 2006
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Me: “Just that our computational resources are not very good in this respect.” j: Excuses, excuses. We have no problem modelling other highly complex phenomena with computers. I think we agree on most of the other things in this discussion apart from this point. *Some* other complex phenomena we can model, but most non-linear equations you care to write down we *can't* model accurately. It is not really an excuse, just a statement that not all theories are amenable to computational modelling. THe example you've given me is classical physics, and I would argue that in most non-idealised cases even this is very hard to model. DO you know how hard it is to model fluid flow in complex situations, or how hard it is to predict the weather? Complexity and diversity is proposed to arise after billions of years of evolution; try predicting the weather billions of years in advance by using a computer programme! Me: “The reason we don’t need to model individual atoms in classical physics is because one can prove many of the results are (approximately) the same. Unfortunately, I don’t know of any proof to simplify the modelling of RM+NS in the case of Darwinian evolution.” j: Environments are massive collections of atoms. Replicators are massive collections of atoms. Genes are very large collections of atoms. Surely each of these are amenable to simplification? The ability to identify what’s important for the modelling of classical physics indicates that we actually understand what’s going on (to a large degree). The lack of any idea of what’s important for (creative) Darwinian evolution to occur in silico means no one really understands it. I really don't know what your point is here---we are lucky if a physical theory is amenable to a simplification in a particular situation. It is not the general case and only holds for some special situations in classical physics. When you say: "Surely each of these are amenable to simplification?" I would say "not necessarily".physicist
January 21, 2006
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physicist
“the phenomena responsible for evolution over extensive periods of time are not in their opinion the same as those responsible for small evolutionary changes” would you say that ID is a subset of such theories?
Not really. The ID hypothesis is that structures produced by intelligent agency can be distinguished from structures produced without intelligent agency. It doesn't speak to the mechanisms used to assemble the structure or to the nature of the intelligence. The non-Darwian evolutionary theories all, as far as I know, speak to mechanisms. ID appears to accomodate most or all the mechanisms as long as the mechanism is not explicitely labeled unguided, unplanned, undirected, random, and other ways of excluding intelligence from the picture. Neither does ID prohibit non-intelligent mechanisms in all cases. Each structure that displays independently given complex patterns must be analyzed to determine the probabilistic resources available for chance to have produced the structure. It is in the determination of probalistic resources where design detection has its greatest weakness in my opinion because it involves proving a negative - i.e. that you've accounted for every possible resource and none are sufficient. This is essentially the argument thrown up against the IC flagellum - just because no one can come up with a Darwinian pathway (the probabilistic resources) now doesn't mean one won't be identified in the future. This can be trotted out for any argument but it doesn't really wash. We can say that just because we haven't found an exception to the law of gravity doesn't mean we won't find one in the future. This is nature of science and thus gravity is still just a theory. It's all a matter of how much reasonable doubt still exists. For gravity there is little if any reasonable doubt especially in the local universe for masses macroscopic masses. For a Darwinian pathway for the flagellum I'd say the claim that one might exist is still reasonable but the onus is on the supporters of the Darwinian pathway theory to find it and until they do then the ID hypothesis that the flagellum is intelligently designed is a live possibility.DaveScot
January 21, 2006
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"You missed one: 4. Engineering_ It is already known that genetic engineers exist. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genetic_engineering Point, set, match! Comment by DaveScot — January 20, 2006 @ 11:53 am" No, I did not miss one. I was responding to post 75. Engineering was not mentioned. Anyway, are you claiming we have no knowledge of engineers, or saying the IDer was a genetic-engineer? Would that mean the IDer worked in a laboratary with highly specialised technical equipment? As for, "Point, set, match!" What do you mean? Is that it? ID is now proven beyond all reasonable doubt? I would claim that evolutionary theory is the best explanation we have for the diversity of life on this planet. I assume you consider ID to be the best explanation. What I do not understand about ID is why there should be so much variation in life. What does ID have to say about that? Why would a designer create so much variety? Surely it would be easier on the designers time to just create one or a few creatures and allow evolution to do the rest.Stephen Elliott
January 21, 2006
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physicist: "RM+NS *does* hold true for observations that can be made—one can observe RM+NS for simple systems in the lab." Achieving what? Enlargement, reduction, degradation, or elimination of features. (For any examples you might try to give otherwise, don't forget to show proof that the mutations were random, and that the selection was natural -- dumb/purposeless/blind.) "Darwinian evolution *can* be modelled using a computer to whatever detail one has the resources to achieve." Of course, I meant Darwinian evolution that actually accomplishes what Darwinian evolution is supposed to accomplish. Show me a computer model of true Darwinian evolution that results in open-ended increases in diversity and functional complexity. Programs with intelligence/purpose/foresight built in in some way don't count. (Natural selection has no intelligence, purpose, or foresight.) "Just that our computational resources are not very good in this respect." Excuses, excuses. We have no problem modelling other highly complex phenomena with computers. "On the other hand, if you model a cut-down system over far fewer reproductive cycles, you can’t expect it to agree with the diversity and complexity you observe in the physical world." In a computer, the time of each generation can be reduced by millions or even billions of times (or even more on a supercomputer?). I'm not demanding the level of complexity and diversity one observes in the physical world, just a tangible, open-ended increase in diversity and functional complexity, unexplainable as being due to chance alone. "The reason we don’t need to model individual atoms in classical physics is because one can prove many of the results are (approximately) the same. Unfortunately, I don’t know of any proof to simplify the modelling of RM+NS in the case of Darwinian evolution." Environments are massive collections of atoms. Replicators are massive collections of atoms. Genes are very large collections of atoms. Surely each of these are amenable to simplification? The ability to identify what's important for the modelling of classical physics indicates that we actually understand what's going on (to a large degree). The lack of any idea of what's important for (creative) Darwinian evolution to occur in silico means no one really understands it.j
January 21, 2006
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hi davescot that is an interesting article. the main description of non-darwinian evolutionists is as believing: "the phenomena responsible for evolution over extensive periods of time are not in their opinion the same as those responsible for small evolutionary changes" would you say that ID is a subset of such theories?physicist
January 21, 2006
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Stephen Elliot, Obviously ID would only be useful in instances where there is uncertainty whether something was intelligently designed or not. Now the design arguments in actual use are usually not as rigorously defined compared to Dembski’s work from what I’ve seen. For example, I was watching a science program where Japanese/Indonesian scientists claimed to have found an ancient temple that is under the water along an island coastline. The problem was that this discovery conflicted with current historical narratives. Though the structure contained large blocks with right angles, several other scientists who investigated later thought the “temple” was entirely the result of natural processes (geology, wave motion). The original scientists used a design argument and several pieces of evidence (small, internal rock cuts comprised of right angles) in their defense and the naysayers didn't have much of a response. Since their design arguments were weaker than Dembski’s methods the final result was pretty much inconclusive, with no clear “winner” as defined by the program. When the program ended I was left thinking that the temple would make an interesting test case for ID.Patrick
January 20, 2006
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Stephen Elliot
How would you back that argument up? 1. Archeology…It is already known that older civilisations existed. 2. Forensics….It is already known that criminals exist. 3. Cryptography…It is already known that Coders exist.
You missed one: 4. Engineering_ It is already known that genetic engineers exist. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genetic_engineering Point, set, match!DaveScot
January 20, 2006
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"i am interested to know the other possible unguided evolutionary processes" The following leads to an article providing some names of non-Darwianian evolutionists and brief descriptions of their hypotheses. https://uncommondescent.com/index.php/archives/682DaveScot
January 20, 2006
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also, i am interested to know the other possible unguided evolutionary processes stephen wolfram's example i think you or someone else gave is quite ambitious, as it's not clear his cellular automata are even consistent with known physical laws. are there examples of unguided non-darwinian evolution that are consistent with our understanding of physics and biology?physicist
January 20, 2006
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j, RM+NS *does* hold true for observations that can be made---one can observe RM+NS for simple systems in the lab. Darwinian evolution *can* be modelled using a computer to whatever detail one has the resources to achieve. What makes you think you can't even model Darwinian evolution? Just that our computational resources are not very good in this respect. Your observational evidence for diversity and complexity comes from the physical world. Therefore, if you want to reproduce what you observe, youw ould have to model the physical world. On the other hand, if you model a cut-down system over far fewer reproductive cycles, you can't expect it to agree with the diversity and complexity you observe in the physical world. The reason we don't need to model individual atoms in classical physics is because one can prove many of the results are (approximately) the same if you don't. (Actually this will assume the planets are infinitely rigid etc etc which is only an approximation). Unfortunately, I don't know of any proof to simplify the modelling of RM+NS in the case of Darwinian evolution. So in a way I would say it is classical physics that is special.physicist
January 20, 2006
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physicist: "Where am I going wrong? Is the idea that there are kinds of `unintelligent’ evolution other than Darwinism?" Yes. "As I asked Davescot, do you believe that classical and quantum mechanics underly the motion of a large system of interacting particles?" When laws and theories hold true for all appropriate observations that can be made, then I'd say there's no good reason to believe that they don't hold true for appropriate observations that aren't, for whatever reason, made. (Of course, this does not rule out the possibility that this default condition may occasionally be miraculously suspended, etc.) I don't see the point of the question. Classical and quantum mechanics can be modelled using a computer to whatever detail one has the resources to achieve. Darwinian evolution can't. "I am not suggesting that diversity and complexity cannot come from relatively simple initial conditions in the real world—I am merely pointing out that our computing power is vastly inferior to what you would need to model the real world." Again, you seem to be assuming that its necessary to make a *replica* of the physical world. Why would it be necessary to have so much detail? Other accepted mechanistic explanations can be modelled in a computer in abstracted form. One doesn't have to model the earth as a collection of atoms to get a computer model of the solar system to work. Masses, distances, velocities, and a gravitational constant, related by Newton's law, are sufficient. What's missing from our understanding of Darwinian evolution that prevents it from being created in silico? Why is Darwinian evolution special?j
January 19, 2006
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If ID was falsified in biology it would likewise be useless in archaeology, forensics, cryptography, ... Comment by Patrick — January 19, 2006 @ 11:01 am How would you back that argument up? 1. Archeology...It is already known that older civilisations existed. 2. Forensics....It is already known that criminals exist. 3.Cryptography...It is already known that Coders exist. Are you assuming that an inteligent designer is already known? If so, your argument is circular. As for SETI. What is it looking for and why? Don't get me wrong. I do believe in God. Or an Inteligent Designer if you prefer. I just do not see it as scientific. How can it be? For something to be classed as scientific it requires repeatable experiments. You would remove free will from the designer?Stephen Elliott
January 19, 2006
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"My understanding of this statement is that ID = ~Darwinism." If ID was falsified in biology it would likewise be useless in archaeology, forensics, cryptography, SETI, etc. Considering this, I'm surprised I haven't seen a concerted effort to attack ID from the other fields outside of biology since if ID does not work it should similarly fall apart once applied there.Patrick
January 19, 2006
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Back to predictive power. Does anybody think that using a computer simulation, it would be possible to predict the properties of Sulphuric acid from the combination of sub-atomic particles? ie If all we had knowledge of was quarks and electrons, could that information be realistically used to predict the properties of complex chemicals?Stephen Elliott
January 19, 2006
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j: This verges on begging the question, and special pleading, IMO. Why are you making excuses for a theory that has no experimental evidence? I see no reason to give it the benefit of the doubt. The onus is on the proponents of Darwinian evolution to show that random mutation and natural selection have got what it takes to generate complexity and diversity. So far, they haven’t. Please note that I’m not singling out Darwinism for special criticism. If any other proposed mechanistic explanation of any phenomenon found in nature couldn’t be mechanically modelled, it would be deserving of just as much doubt, IMO. Sorry, i'm not trying to make an excuses. With almost any scientific theory I can think of, there are realistic situations that are impossible to model. As I asked Davescot, do you believe that classical and quantum mechanics underly the motion of a large system of interacting particles? Even when you can neither measure those particles very accurately nor model their motion using a computer? j: If this is so, it doesn’t inspire much confidence in Darwinism. From the conclusion of the Darwin’s Origin of Species (aka On the Origin of Species by Means of Natural Selection): “There is grandeur in this view of life, [that] from so simple a beginning endless forms most beautiful and most wonderful have been, and are being, evolved.” His whole point was that, through evolution by means of random variation and natural selection, diversity and complexity could arise from simplicity. You’re suggesting that maybe it can’t. What I said was: "But perhaps systems you *can* model by RM+NS on a computer are just too simple to reproduce the properties we do observe in the real world." I am not suggesting that diversity and complexity cannot come from relatively simple initial conditions in the real world---I am merely pointing out that our computing power is vastly inferior to what you would need to model the real world. If you mean, am I suggesting that diversity and complexity will sometimes fail to arise from simple initial conditions---well, yes I am. An example would be if you only run your RM+NS programme for relatively few reproductive cycles---which is probably what we are limited to by computing power.physicist
January 19, 2006
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hi j for example, this, from a recent post by Bill Dembski, stored here: https://uncommondescent.com/index.php/archives/593#comments ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Point (2): Negative argumentation for one of two mutually exclusive and exhaustive positions is always positive argumentation for the other (the two positions here are intelligent design and unintelligent evolution, i.e., evolution that proceeds without intelligent input). Yes, much of ID argumentation is showing the limits to evolvability of various biological systems given certain material mechanisms. But the charge of negative argumentation applies equally to evolutionary theory: evolution argues negatively against ID. Just as ID hasn’t ruled out all conceivable material mechanisms, evolution has not ruled out all conceivable actions by intelligent agents in forming biological complexity. ID has this advantage, however. We do know that intelligent agents can bring about the types of functional systems we see in biology; we have no evidence that unintelligent evolution can do the same. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- My understanding of this statement is that ID = ~Darwinism. Where am I going wrong? Is the idea that there are kinds of `unintelligent' evolution other than Darwinism?physicist
January 19, 2006
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physicist: "I have seen IDers (here, I think) say that falsifying darwinism would be equivalent to proving ID. I think Bill Dembski has also said that." Really? I'd be surprised if Dembski said that. I don't think it follows. Now, *proving* that Darwinian evolution can produce one of the iconic examples of irreducible complexity would be tantamount to *falsifying* ID. This follows directly from the fundamental claim of ID, that "there are natural systems that cannot be adequately explained in terms of undirected natural forces and that exhibit features which in any other circumstance we would attribute to intelligence." However, this does not entail that ID = ~Darwinism. There are a lot of other possible theories of the origination of diversity and complexity. "I think we agree that RM+NS are observed for simple laboratory experiments." It seems reasonable to me that RM+NS can result in the enlargement, reduction, degradation, or elimination of existing features. It seems unreasonable to me to extrapolate from this that it is the explanation of all the diversity and complexity of life. "The thing is, the only real experiment we can carry out is to observe what has happened in nature—where one indeed finds complexity and diversity (again assuming these are well-defined). With a simpler system, run over many fewer reproductive cycles, maybe one shouldn’t expect diversity and complexity to emerge?" This verges on begging the question, and special pleading, IMO. Why are you making excuses for a theory that has no experimental evidence? I see no reason to give it the benefit of the doubt. The onus is on the proponents of Darwinian evolution to show that random mutation and natural selection have got what it takes to generate complexity and diversity. So far, they haven't. Please note that I'm not singling out Darwinism for special criticism. If any other proposed mechanistic explanation of any phenomenon found in nature couldn't be mechanically modelled, it would be deserving of just as much doubt, IMO. "I’m basically saying that the real world of biological complexity is far too difficult to model by computer. But perhaps systems you *can* model by RM+NS on a computer are just too simple to reproduce the properties we do observe in the real world." If this is so, it doesn't inspire much confidence in Darwinism. From the conclusion of the Darwin's Origin of Species (aka On the Origin of Species by Means of Natural Selection): "There is grandeur in this view of life, [that] from so simple a beginning endless forms most beautiful and most wonderful have been, and are being, evolved." His whole point was that, through evolution by means of random variation and natural selection, diversity and complexity could arise from simplicity. You're suggesting that maybe it can't.j
January 18, 2006
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Most ID theorists are obviously focused (too much, perhaps?) on the issue of biology but ID also is useful in deriving whether an object/mechanism was conceived by intelligence in fields like archaeology, forensics, cryptography, SETI, and other fields of interest where the results do not pose a danger to anyone’s belief systems. Well…or at least everyone is so focused on debating the results in biology that I’ve never seen anyone deny ID is useful in those fields (except erroneously based upon a misconception of ID). I don't know if you noticed the earlier discussion about the farmed salmon being marked illegally as wild salmon but personally I'm curious to see what the result would be if ID was applied to that situation.Patrick
January 18, 2006
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Hi j OK, so you are saying that ID is *not* defined as ~Darwinism? I have seen IDers (here, I think) say that falsifying darwinism would be equivalent to proving ID. I think Bill Dembski has also said that. So what am I missing? This claim seems to implied that ID=~Darwinism, right? Yes, navier stokes is thought to modify fluid flow, and works very well in examples you can test. but at some level of complexity you just won't be able to model the system accurately. I think we agree that RM+NS are observed for simple laboratory experiments. Modelling the evolution of 4 billion years though is just computationally too complex. If you could run this programme and expect accurate results, then this would be a good way of testing whether Darwinian processes are consistent with what we observe in nature. The fact that you can't run this programme doesn't say anything about Darwinism. But your question is more like: could one see diversity and complexity (assuming one can define those rigorously---can we?) emerging from Darwinian processes applied to simpler initial conditions than the earth, and probably over a much, much shorter number of reproductive cycles, in order to make the computer model feasible? The thing is, the only real experiment we can carry out is to observe what has happened in nature---where one indeed finds complexity and diversity (again assuming these are well-defined). With a simpler system, run over many fewer reproductive cycles, maybe one shouldn't expect diversity and complexity to emerge? I'm basically saying that the real world of biological complexity is far too difficult to model by computer. But perhaps systems you *can* model by RM+NS on a computer are just too simple to reproduce the properties we do observe in the real world.physicist
January 18, 2006
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physicist, I understand, especially from your latest post. But ID does not correspond to ~(Darwinism). For example, Stephen Wolfram doesn't think biological complexity is the result of RM+NS, but he's not a proponent of ID. (He thinks that it's all the result of nature randomly sampling simple cellular automaton-type programs. He also thinks that natural selection tends to *simplify* things. Such programs sure can make awfully nice patterns. Don't ask me how Wolfram explains the nanotech machines inside cells as resulting from them.) physicist (post #50): "So, I think your assertion is, that *if* we had the knowledge of initial conditions on the earth, and *if* we could write down the appropriate nonlinear equations to describe Darwinian RM+NS, and *if* we had the computing power to solve these equations with any degree of accuracy, then RM+NS would *not* be consistent with what we observe. Well, that is your assertion, but it is practically impossible to test—none of the three conditionals I’ve listed hold. ...Have I understood what you mean correctly?" No. I'm not thinking about complete duplication all details of life. I'm thinking about just the simplest analog of a computer program that shows that RM +NS results in open-ended increases in diversity and complexity. One can make a nice little 2D (or even 3D) simulation of the the solar system, with dozens of objects (i.e., planets and satellites), with a very short program. (Google "solar system simulator" for numerous Java, etc. applets). And while it's true that modelling large-scale weather phenonema requires significant computing power, my point was that the applicable equations (Navier-Stokes, etc.) are known to accurately model fluid dynamics. The simpler the system, and the more precisely known the initial and boundary conditions, the greater the accuracy. But with the biology, there's no indication from computer models that the fundamental claim of Darwin's theory -- that random variation and natural selection are the means through which diversity and complexity are generated -- is correct. In order to achieve anything, such models (e.g., Avida) always depend on intelligence/purpose being written into them in one way or another. They do demonstrate the effectiveness of trial-and-error problem solving (something that has never been questioned), but the criteria for determining what constitutes a successful trial is provided by the programmer. Nothing of the sort is necessary for the computer models of either orbital mechanics or fluid dynamics. The appropriate phenomena (elliptical orbits, Lagrange points, vortices, convection plumes, etc.) result automatically from blind calculation.j
January 17, 2006
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#64 this is tricky---is this quite unclear, then? this is the kind of language we theoretical physicists use, I'm afraid. PaV I think understood my analogy, so at least one person here! OK, well I'm afraid I have to be quick as dinner beckons. Are you familiar with classical and quantum mechanics? Or was that analogy not useful? Let's suppose you have theory A, which you invented in order to describe and predict certain phenomena. It is successful. However, eventually, with new experiments, the theory fails. So we know that theory A is wrong. Now consider the space of all possible theories (to make it concrete, think of all possible equations you could possible write down to describe these phenomena---most of them won't work at all well, of course). What I am saying is unprecedented in the history of science, is that having proved theory A is wrong, someone defines a new theory as B=not A. I.e. in the space of all theories (all possible sets of equations) theory B is the complement of theory A. I don't want to sound patronising, but think of a venn diagram, with theory A being a small circle sitting inside the larger circle of all possible theories. never before (that i know of) has someone defined a new theory as equal to the portion of the big circle that is not within A. usually historically you wouldn't call this portion a new theory, you would just say you had falsified theory A. the example i gave was classical mechanics being falsified. it then took a few years for quantum mechanics to be invented---people didn't immediately think they had invented a new theory called notclassical mechanics. anyway, so sorry for the ramble but pehrpas that's clearer, or at least more explicit. in any case, my main point is that this is an issue of terminology. i think most scientists would be very interested if you convincingly falsified RM+NS, but i don;t think they will be happy to call this falsfication a new theory (ID). are there any lurkers here who understand what i'm trying to explain? perhaps other people could do it better....physicist
January 17, 2006
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#65 first yes, i did google it when you mentioned it---i found a caltech site from just googling avida, is that what you mean? I can't see that claim about proving RM+NS. It looks more like they work with the model of RM+NS, and see what happens for simple systems. It sounds pretty interesting, I think: "in lay terms, Avida is a digital world in which simple computer programs mutate and evolve. " which sounds fairly unobjectionable, but I may be missing what you mean.physicist
January 17, 2006
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physicist Did you google Avida yet? Let me make it easier http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=avida+evolution The claim is grand: Avida proves RM+NS is the all-powerful force evolutionists claim it to be. I don't know if they're still making that claim. I dismissed it a year ago as a group that's more interested in a target rich environment for thesis material and research funding than they are in doing anything new and useful.DaveScot
January 17, 2006
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physicist "it is unprecedented to define a new hypothesis as the complement of the original hypothesis in the space of all theories" I have no idea what you mean by that.DaveScot
January 17, 2006
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