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Have we profoundly misunderstood Harvard Evolutionary Biologist Richard Lewontin in his Jan 1997 NYRB article, “Billions and Billions of Demons”?

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In the current Computer Simulations thread, Dr Liddle has challenged me as follows, that I profoundly misunderstand prof Lewontin’s 1997 NYRB article that crops up so often at UD:

. . . as I have said several times, I don’t think it means what you think it means. In fact I’m sure you are misinterpreting it.

What Lewontin clearly means (and he says so explicitly) is that the entire scientific method is predicated on the assumption that the universe is predictable.

That doesn’t mean it is but that science can only proceed on that assumption.

There is no indoctination here – because no doctrine. Science does not teach the doctrine that there is “no Divine Foot”. What it teaches is that scientific methology must exclude that possiblity because otherwise the entire system collapses . . . .

Before responding to this, let me lay out a link on my understanding of science and its methods, at IOSE.

This also comes at a time when Mr Arrington was told that by leaving off the Beck reference, he had materially distorted the meaning to the point of alleged quote-mining. This is similar to what is now a standard talking point for darwinist objectors when this clip is used. (I had to deal with it in June this year, here at UD.)

It is time to again set the record straight.

So, here is my main response, by way of a markup of the key extract from prof Lewontin’s article; which is misplaced in the same thread as I hit the wrong reply button:

______________

>> . . . to put a correct view of the universe [1 –> a claim to holding truth, not just an empirically reliable, provisional account] into people’s heads we must first get an incorrect view out [2 –> an open ideological agenda] . . . the problem is to get them to reject irrational and supernatural explanations of the world, the demons that exist only in their imaginations [3 –> a declaration of cultural war], and to accept a social and intellectual apparatus, Science, as the only begetter of truth [ 4 –> this is a knowledge claim about knowledge and its possible sources, i.e. it is a claim in philosophy not science; it is thus self-refuting]. . . . To Sagan, as to all but a few other scientists, it is self-evident [5 –> a self evident claim is that this is true, must be true and its denial is patently absurd. But actually, science and its knowledge claims are plainly not immediately and necessarily true on pain of absurdity, to one who understands them; this is another logical error, begging the question, confused for real self-evidence] that the practices of science provide the surest method of putting us in contact with physical reality [6 –> Science gives reality, reality is naturalistic and material], and that, in contrast, the demon-haunted world rests on a set of beliefs and behaviors that fail every reasonable test [7 –> i.e. an assertion that tellingly reveals a hostile mindset, not a warranted claim: if you reject naturalistic, materialistic evolutionism, you are ignorant, stupid, insane or wicked, by direct implication] . . . .

It is not that the methods and institutions of science somehow compel us to accept a material explanation of the phenomenal world [8 –> redefines science as a material explanation of the observed world], but, on the contrary, that we are forced by our a priori adherence to material causes [9 –> another major begging of the question . . . by imposition of a priori materialism as a worldview that then goes on to control science as its handmaiden and propaganda arm that claims to be the true prophet of reality, the only begetter of truth] to create an apparatus of investigation and a set of concepts that produce material explanations, no matter how counter-intuitive, no matter how mystifying to the uninitiated. [10 –> In short, even if the result is patently absurd on its face, it is locked in, as materialistic “science” is now our criterion of truth!] Moreover, that materialism is absolute [11 –> i.e. here we see the fallacious, indoctrinated, ideological, closed mind . . . ], for we cannot allow a Divine Foot in the door. [12 –> Hostility to the divine is embedded, from the outset, as per the dismissal of the “supernatural”] The eminent Kant scholar Lewis Beck used to say that anyone who could believe in God could believe in anything. [13 –> a slightly more sophisticated form of Dawkins’ ignorant, stupid, insane or wicked, certainly, irrational. This is a declaration of war! Those who believe in God, never mind the record of history, never mind the contributions across the ages, are dismissed as utterly credulous and irrational, dangerous and chaotic] To appeal to an omnipotent deity is to allow that at any moment the regularities of nature may be ruptured, that miracles may happen. [14 –> Perhaps the second saddest thing is that some actually believe that these last three sentences that express hostility to God and then back it up with a loaded strawman caricature of theism and theists JUSTIFY what has gone on before. As a first correction, accurate history — as opposed to the commonly promoted rationalist myth of the longstanding war of religion against science — documents (cf. here for a start) that the Judaeo-Christian worldview nurtured and gave crucial impetus to the rise of modern science through its view that God as creator made and sustains an orderly world. Similarly, for miracles — e.g. the resurrection of Jesus — to stand out as signs pointing beyond the ordinary course of the world, there must first be such an ordinary course, one plainly amenable to scientific study. The saddest thing is that many are now so blinded and hostile that, having been corrected, they will STILL think that this justifies the above. But, nothing can excuse the imposition of a priori materialist censorship on science, which distorts its ability to seek the empirically warranted truth about our world.]

[[From: “Billions and Billions of Demons,” NYRB, January 9, 1997.] >>
____________

Do you see my fourteen main points of concern in the clip?

And if you go to the immediately linked, you will see a following note that raises much more, e.g Lewontin’s caricature of the woman who thought the TV broadcasts from the Moon were fake because she could not get Dallas on her set; while in fact Wernher von Braun, the man who sent the Apollo rocket to the Moon was a Christian and a Creationist.

There is even more in the onward linked full article.

Read the above, work your way through the fourteen points, then come back to me and show me how I have misunderstood what Lewontin “really” meant.

So, let us extend the invitation to the onlooker.

Have we misunderstood Lewontin, or have we understood him all too well?

What are your thoughts, why? END

Comments
kairosfocus: it is not "doing you an injustice" to disagree with you. Just as I do not regard you as "doing me an injustice" when you disagree with me. Friends can agree to differ. They can also enjoying thrashing out their differences. I hope that is true here. I do not agree with everything Lewontin said, and I regret his tone. But I do agree with what he says about science, and I do not think he was advocating censorship. I think he was talking about method. I do not think that the supernatural is detectable by scientific means - exactly the point you yourself make in the above post regarding prayer: "Prayer is REQUEST and cannot be experimented on." Quite so. That is why the supernatural has no place in science. Science is methodologically powerless to investigate it.Elizabeth Liddle
October 16, 2011
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No, I don't see the problem. I have not seen an intelligence that was not material.Petrushka
October 16, 2011
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kf, as I've said before, I entirely agree with you about polarising talk. But that's no reason not to discuss what science can and can't do, nor the harm that irrational superstition can do, is it?Elizabeth Liddle
October 16, 2011
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That is a non-sequitur, junkdnaforlife. It's also dodgy data, but that doesn't matter. Presumably you are not claiming that you want people to retain irrational beliefs that make them miserable and ill? Or that belief in God is irrational?Elizabeth Liddle
October 16, 2011
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OK, in that case, redefine science. But do be aware that that is what it would entail. What would you substitute for predictive hypothesis testing? And, specifically, how would you set about testing a supernatural hypothesis?Elizabeth Liddle
October 16, 2011
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BTW, despite many times repeated talking points, ID is not premised on explanatory gaps -- the echo of the god of the gaps talking point is palpable in the subtext -- but on inference to best explanation among known causal patterns, in light of tested, empirically reliable signs. As has been repeatedly pointed out. Kindly, re-read here [etc], again and kindly cease from repeating loaded misrepresentations (cf the implication of that beyond a certain point of willful insistence on corrected error, here) -- especially, given the increasingly poisonous context as can be seen from the 14 concerns above.kairosfocus
October 16, 2011
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The irrational calling the rational irrational, How fitting: DC Talk - Jesus Freak http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2jDnVpCNlyYbornagain77
October 16, 2011
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Dr Liddle: Science is about the regular pattern, not the exceptions that may happen occasionally, for good reason. That was the view of the founders of modern science, and it is an error of making a mountain out of a molehill as well as a strawman fallacy, to ignore that history and the associated philosophy and theology, then project unto theists, that we believe in a world that is chaotic and so theism is inherently destructive to science. (If that were so, why then did Judaeo-Christian Theism play such an important role in launching modern science? We must not allow long since past sell-by date C19 anti-theistic talking points to falsely colour our understanding.) Indeed, the very opposite is the case as say the classic text that God is a God of order will highlight. You will also recall my discussion here, in June, in which I pointed out why a world in which miracles and moral accountability before our Creator are possible, is a world in which there will be an overwhelming pattern of predictable order. This is another poisonously laced strawman. And this is of course precisely a main point of concern no 14. It is high time that there was some frank admission by Darwinist advocates that there is a poisonous pattern of notions and talking points that Lewontin has so strikingly exemplified, a pattern that needs to be exposed, acknowledged as misinformed and poisonous, and withdrawn, with amends made for some serious damage that has been done to real people in real circumstances. Including motivating the sort of bigotry, contempt and outright hostility or even hate that has led to inexcusable actions such as career busting and threats, including of course those made in recent months against my family. Poisoning and polarising the atmosphere like Lewontin et al have plainly done comes at a terrible price. It is high time to do better than that. GEM of TKIkairosfocus
October 16, 2011
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Elizabeth: "My point is that scientific explanations are, by definition, material." Sorry, you (or other materialists) don't get to unilaterally decide what the definition of science is. I'm of course aware that ardent materialists try to exclude everything non-material by definitional fiat. You need to become more acquainted with the demarcation problem, as it has been discussed by philosophers of science for ages. Any definition of science, by necessity, lies beyond science, and, therefore, is based on something else: personal worldview, philosophy, or otherwise. This isn't just me. This is a very well understood issue among philosophers of science. Do a bit of research on demarcation. Shoot, even Wikipedia's "Demarcation Problem" page will at least give a basic, if limited, overview of the issue for anyone who is interested.Eric Anderson
October 16, 2011
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Ms. Liddle wants 'save' people from irrationality??? That is a HOOT!!! Look Who's Irrational Now Excerpt: "What Americans Really Believe," a comprehensive new study released by Baylor University yesterday, shows that traditional Christian religion greatly decreases belief in everything from the efficacy of palm readers to the usefulness of astrology. It also shows that the irreligious and the members of more liberal Protestant denominations, far from being resistant to superstition, tend to be much more likely to believe in the paranormal and in pseudoscience than evangelical Christians. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122178219865054585.html A 2008 Scripps-Howard Ohio University poll also showed that “People who have attended church recently and who identify themselves as born-again Evangelical Protestants are much less likely to have seen UFOs or to believe in the possibility of extraterrestrial intelligence than people with little or no involvement with organized religion.” http://www.mercatornet.com/articles/view/will_science_banish_superstition_for_ever/bornagain77
October 16, 2011
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As well I remind people that Atheists are more prone to irrationality than theists:
Look Who's Irrational Now Excerpt: "What Americans Really Believe," a comprehensive new study released by Baylor University yesterday, shows that traditional Christian religion greatly decreases belief in everything from the efficacy of palm readers to the usefulness of astrology. It also shows that the irreligious and the members of more liberal Protestant denominations, far from being resistant to superstition, tend to be much more likely to believe in the paranormal and in pseudoscience than evangelical Christians. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122178219865054585.html A 2008 Scripps-Howard Ohio University poll also showed that “People who have attended church recently and who identify themselves as born-again Evangelical Protestants are much less likely to have seen UFOs or to believe in the possibility of extraterrestrial intelligence than people with little or no involvement with organized religion.” http://www.mercatornet.com/articles/view/will_science_banish_superstition_for_ever/
bornagain77
October 16, 2011
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Well contrary to Ms. Liddle's claim for a study refuting the effectiveness of prayer, it seems that some very rigorous work directly contradicts her (once again!,,, but is that surprising to anyone anymore): Does prayer work? Yes!!!
Amazing Testimony of the last survivor pulled from the 911 World Trade Center rubble; Genelle Guzman-McMillan – video http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VlhjuRffT48 Scientific Evidence for Answered Prayer and the Existence of God - Rich Deem Excerpt: Obviously, science has demonstrated in three separate studies the efficacy of Christian prayer in medical studies. There is no "scientific" (non-spiritual) explanation for the cause of the medical effects demonstrated in these studies. The only logical, but not testable, explanation is that God exists and answers the prayers of Christians. http://www.godandscience.org/apologetics/prayer.html#AowIolZKZqed A Systematic Review of the Empirical Literature on Intercessory Prayer - March 2010 Excerpt: Meta-analysis indicated small, but significant, effect sizes for the use of intercessory prayer,, http://rsw.sagepub.com/cgi/content/abstract/17/2/174 Does God answer prayer? ASU research says 'yes' February 23, 2007 Excerpt: In other words, does God – or some other type of transcendent entity – answer prayer for healing? According to Hodge’s study, “A Systematic Review of the Empirical Literature on Intercessory Prayer,” the answer is “Yes.” http://asunews.asu.edu/node/1545 More resources and analysis of all prayer studies https://uncommondescent.com/intelligent-design/christophers-challenge/comment-page-4/#comment-352761 Defence of preceding analysis https://uncommondescent.com/intelligent-design/christophers-challenge/comment-page-5/#comment-352864
Personal miracle testimony:
Strange But True - Miracle Testimony https://docs.google.com/Doc?docid=0AYmaSrBPNEmGZGM4ejY3d3pfNTNocmRjZGtkdg&hl=en Hebrews 4:12 For the word of God is living and active. Sharper than any double-edged sword, it penetrates even to dividing soul and spirit, joints and marrow; it judges the thoughts and attitudes of the heart. The Word Is Alive - Casting Crowns - music video http://www.metacafe.com/watch/5197438/ The Word - Sara Groves - music video http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ofE-GZ8zTU
bornagain77
October 16, 2011
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Let us correct:
scientific explanations [if properly done] are, by definition, material [empirically based, testable, non-question-begging, not based on a priori impositions of materialism and progressive in light of further evidence, cf, here].
See the problems with Lewontin? And BTW, Lewontin is plainly on record as wishing to implant the notion in the public mind that science is "the only begetter" of truth. This is a self refuting claim, as of course it is a philosophical not a scientific claim. I take it that you are conceding a key concern point, no 4, without acknowledgement that I am right and Lewontin is wrong. You are also continuing the guilt by association and appeal to prejudices and distortions smear tactic; that's not cricket. Please do better than that. Do you see the outlines of the culture war your side is provoking by such abusive and snide behaviour as the 14 points highlight? (A bit later I am going to have to get back to someone else on the subject of Lewontin's attempt to smear "fundamentalists" by discussing a woman who doubted the TV broadcastrs from the Moon because she could not get TV from as much nearer as Dallas. Somehow, Lewontin forgot to mention that the man who sent the rockets to the Moon, Wernher von Braun, was an Evangelical Christian and Creationist. The objector in question is evidently so ill informed in his snide dismissiveness that he does not seem to be aware of what Newton said in his General Scholium to Principia on the subject of how Laws of Nature are pointers to the God of order who as cosmic Architect made and controls the orderly system of the heavens and the earth. It is of course largely Newtonian physics that sent us to the Moon.) GEM of TKIkairosfocus
October 16, 2011
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"And yes, I do want to rid people of the irrational things that they believe and make them miserable – even ill." Based on contemporary neuroscience, (as you know), religious people, spiritual people and people who believe in God tend to be happier, healthier, less anxiety etc: "...lowering anxiety and depression, enhancing social awareness and empathy, and improving cognitive functioning." Book: How God changes the Brain So if you wanted to rid people of their misery and ill, rid them of atheism.junkdnaforlife
October 16, 2011
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MI: The origin of C-chemistry aqueous medium cell based life in a cosmos suspiciously fine tuned in ways that make that life possible, on the signs of functionally specific complex organisation and information involved, is a strong example of intelligent action by ART, i.e. by design. (Cf discussion here.) GEM of TKIkairosfocus
October 16, 2011
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Dr Liddle Do you really want to go down the road of abusive associations that is being made? I suggest to you that C S Lewis is correct. Prayer is REQUEST and cannot be experimented on. For you are dealing with a Person, not a machine or mechanism, and the circumstances of an experiment will simply fail of the first principle of prayer: we must not ask amiss. If you are interested in addressing the issue of serious answers to serious prayers, go talk with the people who have serious relationships with God. You may find this Rex Gardner BMJ article here helpful in setting a few bent ideas -- not Uri Geller's spoons -- straight. And, pardon, but there are fourteen serious concerns on the table in a context where you have in my opinion done me a serious injustice. highly questionable attitudes towards and assertions about prayer do not help to resolve the serious matters you have joined others in putting on the table. Kindly, take the time to address them directly, in the context of the similar views of Sagan, the observation that this is a dominant view among relevant scientific elites, the public assertions of Coyne, and the positions taken by the US NAS and the US NSTA, as further indicators of how common, pervasive and serious these problems are. GEM of TKIkairosfocus
October 16, 2011
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And BTW, prayer does not belong in the same list as spoon bending or fairies
Intercessionary prayer seems to belong right there, kf. It only seems to work in uncontrolled conditions, just like spoon-bending. Control the conditions, and you get no effect, - possibly even adverse effects. http://www.mayoclinicproceedings.com/content/76/12/1192Elizabeth Liddle
October 16, 2011
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It's of immense help, Eric. How could it not be? Unless you are suggesting that physical and chemical laws were different in the past? And we can check that, in fact, by looking deep into space, and thus back into time.Elizabeth Liddle
October 16, 2011
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(relative of Eric Liddle)
It's my married name, and no relation that I know of, although my husband was a marathon champ once :)Elizabeth Liddle
October 16, 2011
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But radioactive decay is not predictive. You’re restricted to probabilities and averages.
Yes. I think I made that point on another thread. But statistically predictable is still predictable. In fact in most sciences all predictions are statistical, and all model fits come with confidence intervals for their parameters.
By “predictive”, I suppose you mean that experiments can be repeated and the same results obtained (even though, quite surprisingly, this doesn’t necessarily happen).
Not exactly. I mean that hypothesis testing is based on making predictions and testing them against new data.
But, then, what about the fossil record. Can this 100?s of millions of years experiment be repeated? I don’t think so. If you were looking at all the life forms from the Cambrian, could you predict how each lineage would develop over time? I don’t think so. So now what do we do?
No, you certainly couldn't. Science is all about model fitting - you fit a model to existing data, then use it to predict new data. If the model predicts the new data fairly well, you may keep the model (though possibly tweaking your parameters). If it doesn't, you may need a different model.Elizabeth Liddle
October 16, 2011
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Right. And scientists have to assume that the phenomena they are the regular ones. I don't think there is any good evidence for the irregular ones, but let's suppose that they sometimes happen. Science simply cannot test for those. It relies on regularity. That's why the Divine Foot is excluded from science. We need to be able to write: p<.001, not "p<.001, +/- whatever God wills". That's what Lewontin means by quoting Beck on Kant - that if you allow for the possibility that God is there in your experiments, tweaking your data, your conclusions are worthless. It's like measuring something out to a precision of 6 significant figures, then adding a handful more.
Is mind/thought/will explainable purely on material bases? Are there higher laws at work that might, on occasion, make the laws we regularly observe seem to be held in abeyance? Is everything reducible to the physical and the material? All reasonable questions if we are interested in truth. Yet some would disallow such questions, based solely on an equally non-material demarcation criterion.
Perhaps they would disallow them. It would be pointless though. You don't have to disallow them. They are not answerable. My view is that mind/thought/will are explainable in terms of material systems. I certainly don't exclude the possibility that there is something else. I just don't see that there is an explanatory gap. More to the point, if there was, how would you fill it by scientific methodology? If a thing is supernatural, you can't measure it. And if you can't measure it, you can't detect it. This, BTW, IMO, is the entire problem with the whole ID problem. It draws its conclusions entirely from explanatory gaps. That's the best science can do for the supernatural - leave a gap.Elizabeth Liddle
October 16, 2011
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From the OP, and quoting Liz Liddle (relative of Eric Liddle):
What Lewontin clearly means (and he says so explicitly) is that the entire scientific method is predicated on the assumption that the universe is predictable. That doesn’t mean it is but that science can only proceed on that assumption.
But radioactive decay is not predictive. You're restricted to probabilities and averages. By "predictive", I suppose you mean that experiments can be repeated and the same results obtained (even though, quite surprisingly, this doesn't necessarily happen). But, then, what about the fossil record. Can this 100's of millions of years experiment be repeated? I don't think so. If you were looking at all the life forms from the Cambrian, could you predict how each lineage would develop over time? I don't think so. So now what do we do?PaV
October 16, 2011
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Petrushka: To get started, let's focus on this part of the longer quotation:
Sagan’s argument is straightforward. We exist as material beings in a material world, all of whose phenomena are the consequences of physical relations among material entities. The vast majority of us do not have control of the intellectual apparatus needed to explain manifest reality in material terms, so in place of scientific (i.e., correct material) explanations, we substitute demons.
Sagan's argument involves a contradiction. How? Well, if we are truly but "material beings" and no more, then Sagan, in the following sentence should have written: "The vast majority of us do not have control of the "MATERIAL" apparatus needed to explain manifest reality . . .. IOW, he presumes: (1) that we possess, as humans, the "intellectual apparatus" to find, and to establish "explanations"; and, (2) that this "intellectual apparatus" is not material---or else, there is no need to include this phrase in addition to the claim of being "material beings". Thus, if we live in a world that contains intelligence, then his first sentence is in error. It should read: "We exist as material and intellectual beings in a material world, all of whose phenomena are the consequences of physical relations among material entities and of intellectual manipulations." I guess I don't have to point out that if we live in a world that admits of both material and intellectual causes, then intelligent agency can not, a priori, be ruled out. Do you see the problem?PaV
October 16, 2011
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Final thought on this idea of "regularity", and then I'll show myself the door: There is an important difference between identifying laws that govern with regularity and identifying actual causes of events (this is particularly true when dealing with historical events). In the latter case we have to know something about antecedent conditions and contingent factors. Reference to general laws is of precious little help.Eric Anderson
October 16, 2011
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OK, so we’re not so much interested in the truth, whatever the truth may be, but in a materialist explanation, whatever that may be. That sum it up about right, Elizabeth?
No, it is not right, Eric. I am very interested in all kinds of explanations. My point is that scientific explanations are, by definition, material. There is no other kind of explanation in science. Science simply does not have the methodology to test supernatural hypotheses. If you ask me (as Eugene just did) why I love my son, I will tell you it's because he's a sweetie, and in any case, I've loved him since before he was born. He was loved into existence. That's a perfectly good explanation. I can augment it with stories and photographs if you have the time. And it would be the truth. But it's not a scientific explanation. It's an explanation at a different (higher?) level than the level at which science deals. And yes, I do want to rid people of the irrational things that they believe and make them miserable - even ill. I'd like them to base their decisions on a proper evidence-based footing, to aim for impartiality, and rationality. Wouldn't you? That doesn't mean that we can only reach truth through science, or that only science has a truth worth reaching. There are other truths that science can't touch. But when it comes to the kinds of pre-scientific superstitions that people used for science before science came along, and, unfortunately, even now - dead cat cures for warts, exorcisms for epilepsy, curses, witchburnings, beliefs that a suicide bomber is greeted in heaven with 72 virgins, that if you masturbate you'll grow hair on your palms, and that if you have gay sex you'll spend eternity in torture. All that stuff. Yes, Lewontin wanted rid of that stuff. And he was right.Elizabeth Liddle
October 16, 2011
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"anyone who could believe in God could believe in anything. " Anyone who could believe in [substitute favorite item here: a multiverse, materialistic abiogenesis, etc.] could believe in anything. There is a difference between regularity and absolute. Everyone understands that the laws of nature hold sway at almost all times and places and provide our reality with great regularity. Personally, I'm grateful for that fact, and I understand the creeping discomfort with anything that would disturb that regularity. However, the question remains, are there nuances? Is mind/thought/will explainable purely on material bases? Are there higher laws at work that might, on occasion, make the laws we regularly observe seem to be held in abeyance? Is everything reducible to the physical and the material? All reasonable questions if we are interested in truth. Yet some would disallow such questions, based solely on an equally non-material demarcation criterion. The other problem with such discussions is defining to everyone's satisfaction words like miracle, natural/supernatural, etc. Interesting stuff, to be sure, but I prefer to spend my time elsewhere.Eric Anderson
October 16, 2011
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Or not.material.infantacy
October 16, 2011
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EL, it's likely one of these: To Save Time Barry Argues Both Sides Battle Of The Two Elizabethsmaterial.infantacy
October 16, 2011
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Ah, not so difficult. Here we are: I wrote:
The key to understanding that quotation from Lewontin’s review are the two sentence that immediately follows the part you quote:
The eminent Kant scholar Lewis Beck used to say that anyone who could believe in God could believe in anything. To appeal to an omnipotent deity is to allow that at any moment the regularities of nature may be ruptured, that miracles may happen.
In other words, science cannot proceed except under the assumption that nature is regular. To allow the possibility that nature may not be regular is to open ourselves to belief in “anything”. Now, it is perfectly possible that that assumption may be unjustified. Perhaps there is an irregularity at the heart of the reality that renders all science unreliable. But the entire methodology of science, as Lewontin says, is predicated on the assumption that we can abstract general laws from our observations, and expect that what is true today will also be true tomorrow. That is why the Divine Foot must be omitted from scientific calculations, not because it doesn’t exist (though I don’t think it does) but because even if it does, it is simply not amenable to the methodology of science. Which, on the whole, works.
And also:
This is how science works: We have observations. We devise a model that might explain our observations. We test our model by using it to predict new observations. We make new observations. If the new observations fit our model well, we keep the model (always provisionally). If they fit it badly, we adjust, or even abandon, the model. The Divine Foot cannot be accommodated in this methodology, because the Divine Foot is not a “regularity”. Let us say we observe a miracle. We make a model that says: miracles occur when we pray for them. So we set up a testable prediction: we ask people to pray for a miracle, and we make new observations. We compare these with the effects of no prayer. And lo and behold, we do not get any miracles. Why? Because God is not regular – not predictable. Skeptics say: see? Prayer does not work. Believers say: Do not put God to the test. His ways are mysterious. He answered you prayers, but on this occasion His answer was no. Both inferences are unjustified. What is justified is Lewontin’s actual point: there is no place for the Divine Foot in science. Science can neither prove nor disprove God, because the entire scientific methodology is based on the premise that the universe is predictable, and that the job of scientists is finding the keys to making the predictions. If you want a predictable God, by all means let the Divine Foot in. Or, if you want useless science, by all means let the Divine Foot in. But it seems to me better to let science do what it does well, i.e. proceed on the assumption that the universe is predictable; and, if you want, pray that on occasions it isn’t (and that on those occasions, the unpredictability works in your favour).
And Barry wrote:
Elizabeth Liddle is correct. Science does not, indeed cannot, take account of miracles. The entire scientific project is premised upon previously observed regularities continuing to occur. Obviously this does not mean that miracles do not occur. Most people believe miracles do occur, and that belief is based upon evidence. It is not based, as some would have it, on blind faith. Nevertheless, miracles are not susceptible to scientific investigation because they are, by definition, irregular and unpredictable. All of this, of course, is beside the point of my post, and perhaps I should have made this clearer. In his comment “Mirror” implies that only ID proponents approach the data from a point of view, when it should be perfectly obvious that everyone approaches the data from a point of view. And it should also be perfectly obvious that we must all struggle to overcome our biases, because they make us almost literally blind. Stephen Jay Gould was very good on this issue. To his credit, he acknowledged that scientists are sometimes unable to see data that does not fit into their preconceived notions. Here are some nuggets. “. . . but stasis is data . . . Say it ten times before breakfast every day for a week, and the argument will surely seep in by osmosis: ‘stasis is data; stasis is data’ . . .” Stephen Jay Gould, The Structure of Evolutionary Theory (Cambridge, MA: Belknap Press, 2002), 759. “We expect life’s bushes . . . to tell some story of direction change. If they do not, we do not feature them in our studies – if we even manage to see them at all . . . Paleontologists are now beginning to study this higher order stasis, or nondirectional history of entire bushes.” Stephen Jay Gould, “Cordelia’s Dilemma,” Natural History 102.2 (February 1993): 15, 10-18. “Correction of error cannot always arise from new discovery within an accepted conceptual system. Sometimes the theory has to crumble first, and a new framework be adopted, before the crucial facts can be seen at all.” Stephen Jay Gould, “Cordelia’s Dilemma,” Natural History 102.2 (February 1993): ____, 10-18. During the period of nearly universal rejection [of the continental drift theory], direct evidence for continental drift – that is, the data gathered from rocks exposed on our continents – was every bit as good as it is today . . . In the absence of a plausible mechanism, the idea of continental drift was rejected as absurd. The data that seemed to support it could always be explained away . . . The old data from continental rocks, once soundly rejected, have been exhumed and exalted as conclusive proof of drift. In short, we now accept continental drift because it is the expectation of a new orthodoxy. I regard this tale as typical of scientific progress. New facts, collected in old ways under the guidance of old theories, rarely lead to any substantial revision of thought. Facts do not ‘speak for themselves, they are read in the light of theory. Stephen Jay Gould, “The Validation of Continental Drift,” in Ever Since Darwin: Reflections in Natural History (1978; reprint, London: Penguin, 1991), 161.
Elizabeth Liddle
October 16, 2011
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Can someone remember which post it was where Barry seemed to agree with me about the limits of science? This site is so difficult to search!Elizabeth Liddle
October 16, 2011
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