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HeKS continues to suggest a way forward on the KS “bomb” argument

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Last week, one of my comments relating to the KS “bomb” argument was made the subject of an OP, which can be found here.

In that comment, I had offered a few preliminary thoughts on Keith’s argument (originally found here, and summarized by him here) and asked a few questions to better understand the assumptions informing his argument. Unfortunately, the issues raised in my OP comment, as far I can tell, were never actually addressed. Instead, the ‘responses’ in the ensuing conversation revolved almost entirely around what the participating ID proponents considered obviously false analogies, which invoked “Planetary Angels”, “Rain Fairies”, “Salt Leprechauns”, and “Toilet Whales”.

Regarding these analogies, Keith, Zachriel, and other ID opponents, seemed to be arguing as though ID claims a designing agent is necessary to explain the shape/pattern of the ‘Objective Nested Hierarchy’ (ONH) into which living organisms are claimed to fall, when the production of  an ONH can be explained by a natural, unguided process of branching descent.  Thus, they claimed, there is no difference between the ID position and one that claims planets are moving in elliptical orbits because angels are choosing to push them around in such orbits, or one that claims salt falls from a salt shaker into a pile on the table because the falling salt is being guided by invisible leprechauns who like making salt piles. The idea here is that in each case we have some superfluous explanatory entity being posited to directly guide some process that looks exactly like it is not being guided, does not need to be guided, and is explained perfectly well by law-based processes.

During the course of the thread it was pointed out to them innumerable times that, even granting the existence of an ONH for life, ID does not and would not cite the shape or production of such an ONH as being an example of something that requires an explanation by reference to an intelligent cause. Rather, in identifying the need for an intelligent cause to explain certain aspects of biology, ID points to the evident infusion of significant amounts of biological information into the world of life, as well as the novel introduction of complex, functionally-specified biological systems and molecular machines. In other words, for its evidence, ID points to aspects of life that do not seem obviously explicable by reference to purely natural processes, whether stochastic or law-based, but that do contain hallmarks that we habitually and uniquely associate with conscious, intelligent, intentional activity. In yet other words, the previously mentioned analogies to “Planetary Angels” and “Salt Leprechauns” are horribly and obviously misguided and entirely off the mark.

Unfortunately, the distinction never seemed to get through to them. And even more unfortunately, the thread was eventually derailed and shut down while a number of conversations were still in progress. Aspects of the discussion, however, continued here.

In that new thread, the Rain Fairies, the Salt Leprechauns, and their most recent common ancestor, the Plantary Angels, have again reared their head, being invoked in response to the objection from ID proponents to the description of microevolution as being “unguided”. The point of the ID proponents in this case relates quite closely to one of the claims in Keith’s so-called “bomb” argument, with which I myself took issue in the previously mentioned OP. In Keith’s summary of his argument, he says that even “the most rabid IDer” admits that “unguided evolution” exists, with the ultimate intention of extrapolating what ID proponents admit happens into what they say does not happen.

Now, when Keith refers to “unguided evolution” here, he is referring to the relatively minor microevolutionary changes that take place within a population, but on the view of ID proponents, these are not the kind of phenomena that could, even in principle, be extrapolated to account for the macroevolutionary innovations that would be necessary to account for the full content of the alleged ONH “Tree of Life”. And in taking issue with the characterization of microevolution as “unguided”, the ID proponent is taking issue with the fact that a phrase that might be uncontroversially applied to a subset of these phenomena is, within the context of Keith’s argument, being over-generalized in a way that implicitly suggests an acceptance by ID proponents of propositions they do not actually accept, and so is a case of illegitimately stealing ground en route to the argument’s conclusion.

In addition to my comments in the original OP, I expanded on them somewhat in a recent comment, which I’ll duplicate here to fill out the remainder of this post and hopefully spur further discussion.

From here:

Now, when it comes to this business of proving that microevolution is unguided, I think there needs to be an understanding of what it would even mean to suggest that it is “guided”. I’m reasonably certain that the majority of people who would dispute claims that microevolution is unguided do not mean that a designer is actively, in the moment, effecting a specific microevolutionary change. Nor would they dispute that random mutations happen. Rather, they would likely dispute that all mutations are random. And they would also likely argue (as I did in the previous thread) that the constrained allowance for – and even rapid increased initiation of – mutations and general genetic and epigenetic changes are a purposeful aspect of the design of organisms to allow for diversification and adaptation (which is sometimes very rapid). If the random variation or shuffling is too large, however, it kills the organism, makes it sterile, or at the very least reduces its reproductive potential, decreasing the chances that the significant defect will be passed on or largely affect subsequent generations of a population.

In other words, the argument is not that random mutations allowing microevolution look unguided but are actually being directly manipulated by some designer. Rather, the argument is that 1) the RM/NS mechanism is a constrained feature of organismal design, and that the Neo-Darwinists are looking at a design feature of a system that makes use of randomization and illegitimately extrapolating it to explain the entire system itself; and 2) that not all mutations/changes are random at all, but some are internally directed in a purposeful manner for the benefit of the organism.

So, it seems to me that, from an ID perspective, saying something like, ‘even IDists admit unguided evolution exists’, is either A) a case of making a trivial claim that cannot be legitimately extrapolated from the kinds of microevolutionary changes that are seen (overwhelmingly degrading genetic information and/or narrowing genetic variability; breaking or blunting existing biological function for a net fitness gain) to the kinds of macroevolutionary innovations that are theorized (the introduction of complex, functionally-specified systems and molecular machines), or B) a case of making an unwarranted and unsubstantiated claim that the system that allows for and makes use of the RM/NS mechanism for the benefit and diversification of the organism does so by fluke, in a way that is fully unconstrained, and is itself undesigned; or C) both.

Of course, as I’ve said numerous times before, I think this is only one of many issues with Keith’s argument, but it has become quite clear that it is difficult to get even just one criticism seriously addressed in a comment thread, so it would likely be useless to draw in any others at this point. I’m hoping that the nonsensical false analogies about Rain Fairies and Planetary Angels can be left to the side to allow for some kind of substantive discussion of the issues, but I’ve been given little reason to suspect that my hope is grounded.

 

Comments
@Keith #141
Once you recognize this – that it would take a lot of concerted effort to wreck the ONH under these circumstances – you are forced to try to argue that the designer in question would want to go out of its way specifically for the purpose of wrecking that signal that was naturally caused by its chosen method of distributing traits and facilitating adaptation. Why should we assume the designer would want to do that?
First, it’s not difficult to wreck an ONH. Humans do it all the time with their designs, which generally don’t fall into an ONH.
Incorrect, and non-responsive to my point. You've gone back to making a claim that would apply to an absolute ONH that considers all characters rather than a statistical ONH based on the correlations between many incongruent trees. There are significant incongruities throughout the entire supposed "Tree of Life" and they do not "completely wreck" the statistical ONH signal derived from the correlations at all. Nor would they be expected to. If traits are largely distributed through a form of branching descent then life will generally look like an ONH. If designs/traits used in one lineage are sometimes inserted into one or more other lineages, this will not remotely "wreck" the overall ONH signal. Not even if this was done very often. And especially not if the design/trait was altered to fit better in its new organismal environment. The general trend of distributing traits through some form of branching descent would continue to allow for the statistical detection of an ONH signal that dwarfed the numerous cases where the structure was significantly broken. This is one of the problems with claiming life is a true ONH when the ONH signal is inferred statistically from the correlation of a limited set of traits, using a limited range of comparisons, across many incongruent trees.
Secondly, you appear to be making an awful lot of assumptions about the designer. On what basis? Practically every IDer I’ve encountered says that we can’t assume anything about the designer, and that “the designer wouldn’t have done it that way” is not a permissible argument. Do you disagree? If you would like to make assumptions about the designer, that’s fine. Just be aware that you must justify them. They can’t be ad hoc assumptions introduced simply for the purpose of conforming the designer to the evidence — that’s the Rain Fairy fallacy.
I don't agree in an absolute sense that we can't assume anything about the designer, no. It depends on the context in which the assumption is being made. There's also a difference between assuming something about a designer and inferring it on the basis of the thing that is believed to be designed. With regards to discerning the characteristics of a designer, I've stated my position on this site a few times: the design inference can provide us with insight into the minimum set of characteristics that the designer must possess, not the maximum set of characteristics the designer might possess. As such, one can make limited but warranted plausible inferences about a designer on the basis of their designs. And, given those inferences, one can also consider whether certain approaches can be more or less plausibly attributed to an agent with the characteristics that the designer is inferred to have on the basis of their designs. Further, one can consider whether anything in the nature of the project itself suggests constraints, even without giving consideration to the abilities or characteristics of the designer. We can also consider the kinds of methods that we would use to approach a project, goal or problem and use that as a context for the types of approaches we might expect to see some other intelligent agent using. The results of such considerations are not just "ad hoc assumptions introduced simply for the purpose of conforming the designer to the evidence". It's true that they do not result in deductive certainty, but they give us a reasonable frame of reference for what kinds of things might be more plausible and which might be less plausible, and which types of things we might be more likely to expect or less likely to expect. Now, one of the many problems with your argument is that, for all intents and purposes, you represent the designer as a random process that is exactly as likely to choose one logically possible option as another. But intelligent agents don't work that way. And more specifically, designers don't work that way. I know you've tried to deny that your argument assumes the designer acts like a random process or, indeed, makes any assumptions about the designer at all, but you're mistaken. Assigning equal probability to all options, in itself, necessarily implies certain assumptions about the designer, like: - In approaching a complex design and engineering project, it is just as likely that the designer will use an incoherent and haphazard approach as a coherent, organized and methodical one - If the designer chooses a coherent, organized and methodical approach to a complex design and engineering project, it is just as likely that the designer will utterly abandon his approach for a completely different one over and over during the course of the project as it is that he will follow the coherent, organized and methodical approach he originally decided on. And even... - If the designer chose an approach that would result in a statistically inferable pattern into which his work would ultimately be able to be classified, it is just as likely that he would go to great lengths to ensure that such a pattern would be impossible to statistically infer as it is that he would be content to allow that pattern to stand. Your assigning of equal probability to all options also makes assumptions like this: - When any given intelligent person is presented with the full array of logically possible solutions to a problem, it is plausible to think that person will consider all logically possible solutions equally viable and desirable, or else will be indifferent to the general viability or desirability of the various solutions. Or, similarly, but more generally: - Given a vast array of logically possible approaches to carrying out a task, it is unlikely that a drastically reduced subset of more desirable approaches will consistently emerge if the full array of options are presented in a survey to a sample of people skilled in the subject matter. We have no reason to think any of these types of assumptions are true and a wealth of reasons (the totality of our experience of the domains of design, programming, engineering, etc.) to think they are false. To attempt to apply the Principle of Indifference to the array of logically possible (but so far unstated) actions a designer might take in approaching a problem or carrying out a goal doesn't actually make any sense. The principle of indifference is applied when we are not aware of any variables to distinguish any one option from another, such that there is true "indifference" between any two given options and they are actually indistinguishable from each other except in terms of the labels that are applied to them. It is nonsensical to apply this to the array of logically possible ways a person might attempt to solve a problem, reach a goal, or undertake a complex project, because there are ways to distinguish the logically possible options from each other and to identify certain options as being better than others to achieve the intended purpose. Additionally, the specific details of the problem may place further constraints on even the small subset of preferable options and may suggest a further, smaller subset of best choices, or even just one. Consider a scenario: A man you've never seen before and about whom you know nothing is being chased by a group of people who are screaming that they are going to kill him and who are carrying knives, axes and other sharp objects, and one guy with a bow and arrow. The mob is about 20-30 yards behind the man, who is running as fast as he can. A little ahead of the man is a huge gorge hundreds of feet deep and a few hundred feet wide, and on the other side of it is a large mass of people waving him over saying they can help him. As the man approaches the edge he sees two old ropes spanning the gorge, one a few feet above the other, just off to his left. Slightly to his right he sees a nice, new steel bridge spanning the gorge. Both the makeshift rope bridge and the professionally constructed steel bridge are logically possible options for getting to the people on the other side of the gorge. Given that the only thing we know about the man at this point is that he seems to have the goal of surviving, should we conclude that because we don't know anything else about him other than the basic goal he's trying to achieve that it is therefore just as likely that he will choose to take the rope bridge as the steel bridge? The answer, of course, is no, because the end goal itself, and the nature of the problem being addressed, offers ways to distinguish between the logically possible options to determine which option is better for achieving the desired goal and therefore which option the man is more likely to choose. This kind of basic information can be used to distinguish between some options that are very different from each other and sometimes even ones that are very similar. For example, suppose all the parts to make a hot air balloon are sitting in a shelter near the edge of the gorge, perhaps mostly assembled, and with a few minutes of work the man might be able to climb into the hot air balloon and soar far away from the danger. This is a very different kind of option and it's certainly logically possible that he could try to do this, but is it just as likely that he would try to take this approach as it is that he would try to run across the bridge to the people offering him help? Not really. The nature of the problem - namely the time constraints involved in having the angry mob hot on his heels - makes it highly unlikely that he would choose an approach that he quite clearly wouldn't have time to carry out. Another logically possible option is that he could simply jump off the edge of the cliff in the hopes of landing in the narrow river near the middle of the canyon hundreds of feet below. It would be utterly stupid, but it would nonetheless be logically possible for him to attempt it. Does this mean he's just as likely to try jumping off the cliff as to try running across the steel bridge? It seems unlikely. Alternatively, it's logically possible that the man could think he's some kind of superhero, and so it's logically possible that he could just jump of the cliff thinking he'll fly away to safety. It's logically possible that he could try this, but does that mean we're warranted in thinking it's just as likely that he'll do this as anything else? I wouldn't be inclined to take that bet. But now suppose that we come back to the bridges and specify that the first steel bridge we mentioned earlier was very narrow, being only wide enough for one person, but that there was a second steel bridge a few feet further away that was quite a bit wider. Do we have any reason to think he might choose one steel bridge over the other? Well, it depends on how quickly he thinks on his feet and how many factors we think he might be taking into account. He might simply be thinking, "I need to get away", in which case it's most likely he would just take the closer, narrow bridge. But he could be thinking on a higher level that if the mob follows him across, the narrow bridge will create a bottleneck for them, making it easier for his helpers to deal with them, in which case he again would probably take the narrow bridge. But he could be thinking on still a higher level and reason that the only cause the mob would have to follow him across is if he actually gets to the other side alive, but that the narrow bridge makes him a very easy target for the guy with the bow and arrow, who will have plenty of time and opportunity to fire arrows at him in a straight line without ever even having to step on the bridge, making it almost certain that he will be hit. He might further reason that the wide bridge would give him the ability to duck and weave unpredictably as he crosses, making himself a much harder target for an arrow. And he might further note that the group of people offering him help is much larger than the mob pursuing him, and so they would probably be able to subdue the mob quite easily even without the aid of the bottleneck that would be caused by the narrow bridge. In this case, he would probably take the extra few seconds to run past the narrow bridge and cross the wider one. If we know nothing about the man and simply assume that he is of average intelligence and is also in fear, the safest bet is probably to assume he would just take the closer bridge. If neither bridge was closer, it would be fair to assume there was equal probability that he would take either bridge. In order to make a more informed determination of the probability that should be assigned to each bridge, we would need more information. For example, perhaps we had been following the chase, unobserved, for a few days. During that time, we may have witnessed the man dealing with other problems, perhaps evading traps, or maybe setting them, or overcoming obstacles in his path, or other such things. Though we don't know this man or his background, by observing his actions we may determine that he is resourceful, intelligent, level-headed, not given to panic, good at solving problems, disciplined, a strategic thinker, mechanically inclined, etc. We could reasonably infer these characteristics from the nature of the things he has done, even if we don't know anything else about him. And, if we have inferred such characteristics from the things we see he has done in the past, they could inform the relative probabilities we assign to other actions he might take in the future, like what bridge he might choose to cross in the stated scenario. In a different vein, we might consider the field of criminal profiling, where an unknown subject is inferred to have certain psychological characteristics simply on the basis of the crimes they have committed, and those characteristics are then used in weighing what possible future actions the unknown assailant is or is not likely to take as well as in determining whether or not certain other unsolved crimes are likely to have been perpetrated by the same subject. Then, of course, there's the option of positing some particular designer and determining what you might expect to find as a result of their actions. Modern science arose from the idea that both our minds and the cosmos were designed by the orderly mind of God, and so we should expect nature to demonstrate a high degree of order and operate in accord with discernible regularities, such that it would be coherent and comprehensible - and even in many cases predictable - to our minds, and therefore discoverable to us. For this reason, theists are not surprised to find the highly fine-tuned order of the universe that allows for the existence of intelligent life. Nor are they surprised to find that, by-and-large, the world of life is also quite well ordered. Were life an utterly incomprehensible jumble of organisms that rarely, if ever, displayed a discernible pattern, then they would be surprised. Of course, most of this should all be rather obvious, but your argument utterly fails to take into account the fact that the nature of a problem, goal or project places constraints on the related logically possible solutions and offers information that can be used to distinguish what types of potential solutions are better or worse than others and more or less likely to be employed by an intelligent agent in achieving the goal, solving the problem or undertaking the project. It also fails to take into account the ability to infer that certain characteristics are present in a designer based on an analysis of the things they are believed to have designed, and that this information can then be used in weighing the general likelihood that they might have produced other kinds of designs or used other kinds of design approaches. All that being said, the funny thing about your claim that I "appear to be making an awful lot of assumptions about the designer" is that I had actually only pointed out that even though you claimed it would be easy for the designer to have "completely wrecked" the ONH at any time, and that it was significant he didn't, it actually would not have been easy at all for the designer to do this, and therefore...
you are forced to try to argue that the designer in question would want to go out of its way specifically for the purpose of wrecking that signal that was naturally caused by its chosen method of distributing traits and facilitating adaptation.
That is an assumption created by comparing your claim to the facts of the situation. I then asked:
Why should we assume the designer would want to do that?
I wasn't making an assumption here. I was pointing out that we have no basis for making the assumption that the designer would want to do what would be required to "completely wreck" the statistically inferable ONH signal that would naturally be caused by the general trend of distributing traits through branching descent, which you had wrongly implied would be very easy for the designer to do at any moment. You continued:
Not only must you justify your assumptions, but the justifications must be of trillions-to-one strength, to compensate for the trillions-to-one advantage of UE in explaining the ONH.
No, they don't. And there is not a trillions-to-one advantage for UE, even if we assume that there were literally trillions of logically possible ways to approach the task. The symmetrical distribution of probabilities across all logical possibilities is silly and baseless. And, as I've said multiple times now, your entire argument that tries to identify a trillions-to-one advantage for UE based on the claim that we have no reason to think the designer would prefer to create an ONH out of the alleged trillions of other options available is entirely wrong-headed from the get-go, and for at least two more reasons in addition to the one I just mentioned: 1) Trillions of logically possible tasks or steps, even if they really existed, are not the same as trillions of logically possible discernible patterns, so in this respect we might expect life would take the form of one pattern (or possibly a few) out of a much smaller array of feasible patterns, or else that it would simply look like a random jumble with no pattern at all, which would be unexpected on an hypothesis of design; and 2) An ONH will be naturally generated as the byproduct of any general process that distributes traits and innovations through some form of branching descent. So, as I've said repeatedly, the actual question should be, “Is there any reason why a designer would prefer to use a process of differential distribution of traits through branching descent in generating the diversity of life?” I say yes, because that’s a perfectly sensible approach to solving the ‘problem’ of creating animal diversity while growing populations and also facilitating adaptation to diverse environments. If you would like to answer no, you're free to try to argue that.
You are making the mistake that, because we can’t scientifically establish the identity of the designer based on the currently available data, it is proper to think the designer would act randomly, like the roll of a die, operating without any coherent methodology, and being just as likely to remove its own complex design features from organisms as to add them, which has no intuitive plausibility.
I am not arguing that the designer must act that way. I’m simply saying that since we know absolutely nothing about the designer, we have no basis for treating any option as more likely than another.
And you are wrong. And not just wrong, but obviously wrong.
You don’t need gradual change across the board for an ONH to be inferable. What you mainly need is simply not to quickly lose high numbers of key features used for classification, though it would also be preferable to not have the genetic coding of existing features drastically changing while maintaining the same functionality, but both of these are things that one would have no problem explaining on unguided evolution if 1) organisms did not have design constraints to preserve function and limit change…
But that’s what purifying selection does. The only changes that are tolerated are near-neutral or beneficial.
I think you're confusing effect with cause. "Purifying selection" happens because organisms are made of complex, tightly-constrained, highly integrated systems. If they become deregulated or the processes intended to prevent significant changes from happening break down, things go bad for the organism and if they don't outright die then they perform more poorly than the organisms who have stayed within the constrained range of variation that the system design allows for. It certainly isn't necessary that any given process of "unguided evolution" would have recourse to something like "purifying selection", or that it would just happen to fortuitously be operating on systems that have error correction to prevent drastic change, making it very difficult to just suddenly and accidentally lose a character from a population in a very short time, which could have been very easy under different circumstances. In other words, to make the point more clear, in order to get an ONH from some kind of branching descent process, new features can be added to organisms as fast as you like, but loss of significant features must not happen quickly. Such a state of affairs is to be expected in the context of a design process, such as in software versioning, where new features are typically added wholesale from one version to the next, but existing features, while often slightly tweaked, typically remain very recognizable and are rarely removed. In living organisms, the prevention of the loss of existing features is ensured by highly sophisticated and efficient proof-reading and error-correction systems, which again make perfect sense in a design context, where, as a result of foresight, the system is intentionally endowed with sophisticated features to maintain its functional stability. However, on balance, there's no reason to expect that complex, interrelated systems would arise at all from a mindless process, much less that such a mindless process with no goals in view would endow its systems with powerful proof-reading and error-correction capabilities. So, were it not for the incredibly fortuitous nature and capabilities of the systems themselves, an evolutionary process operating in tandem with a process of branching descent would be unlikely to produce an ONH at all, since it would be far more likely that existing features would be lost quickly (and that organisms would regularly just drop dead) while new features would be added very slowly (if you assume that they could be added at all), which is precisely the opposite of the circumstances that are conducive to the general formation of an ONH. This being the case, a process of branching descent would, on balance, be far more likely to produce a general ONH structure when running on the kinds of systems that would be expected to result from intelligent design than on the kinds of systems that would be expected to result from a mindless process with no foresight and no goals in view (allowing, for the sake of argument, that such systems would arise at all).
and 2) functional genetic sequences were plentiful relative to sequence space and easy to stumble upon.
They are. See Andreas Wagner’s new book Arrival of the Fittest.
I have his book, but you seem to have missed the point. If functional genetic sequences really are plentiful relative to sequence space and really are easy to stumble upon, that would make the generation of an ONH structure less likely on "unguided evolution", since it would presumably be easy for functional genetic sequences to drastically shift through a lineage without loss of a functional character, thereby confounding attempts to match molecular phylogenies to morphological ones and to match functional stretches of DNA between presumed ancestors and descendants. Also, the easier it is for evolution to find functional sequences and dance around them without losing function, the more likely it is that highly similar characters, based on similar genes, will pop up everywhere in the supposed "Tree of Life" and then keep changing in a way that confuses presumed ancestor descendant relationships. Taken together, these phenomena really could make it quite easy to actually "completely wreck" the ONH signal and would make it far less likely that we should expect to see any kind of strong ONH signal produced by "unguided evolution", even given the process of branching descent.
However, the rapid introduction of new features would not cause a problem for inferring an ONH. That would actually help it.
Yes, if the old features remained static. Another assumption for you to justify.
There's nothing to justify. This is a standard feature of designed systems.
keiths: What you’re missing is that the infusion of complex “content” is not separable from the formation of the ONH. The unguided branching events are not recorded directly — they are inferred from the distribution of derived characters, including the complex ones. HeKS: The point is that if the designer typically worked with the general process and motif of branching inheritance,
Another unjustified assumption about the designer.
No, it's not. The only thing I'm 'assuming' is that its reasonable to expect an intelligent designer to make an intelligent design choice, and so if using branching descent for the differential distribution of traits, the generation of organismal diversity and the facilitation of environmental adaptation makes good sense from a design perspective, it would be reasonable for the designer to use it. The basic assumption that it's reasonable to expect an intelligent designer to make intelligent design choices is self-justifying. Furthermore, since I think the designer is highly intelligent and organized based on the incredibly complex and coordinated functionality of, for example, the cell, and since the designer seems to have a penchant for achieving multiple goals from single resources - as in the case of DNA, with multi-level genetic codes, alternative splicing, strings of code that carry functional meaning when read in both directions, etc. - then it makes perfect sense to me that the designer would use some form of branching descent to achieve the multiple goals I mentioned, since it would fit right in with the design style I perceive the designer to be using in the systems that directly lead me to make a design inference in the first place.
…which allows for the distribution of traits and for adaptation, then that process of diversification would cause a strong ONH pattern that would hold with high statistical significance even if the designer very regularly broke the pattern by co-opting design features from one lineage and adding them to another (though they would almost certainly need some tweaking in their new organismal environment).
You are dictating how much lateral transfer the designer is “permitted” to use. On what basis? Humans use tons of lateral transfer, and for good reason.
No, I'm not in any way dictating how much lateral transfer the designer would be permitted to use. I'm saying that, given a general trend of distributing traits and facilitating adaptation through a form of branching descent, it would require a truly gargantuan amount of randomly distributed lateral transfer of identical traits to make it impossible to infer a strong ONH signal from any statistical correlation of traits in incongruent trees. Now, could the designer have done this if he wanted to? Sure. But we have no good reason to expect the designer to do this, such that his failure to do it would in any way imply he wasn't involved in the design, production and diversification of life at all, which is what you want to argue. Furthermore, there are obvious legitimate reasons why the designer might not (and likely wouldn't) choose do this, such as if the designer had a desire to cause and preserve a large degree of diversity and disparity in forms of life, which would be drastically reduced by the type of activity that would be needed to "completely wreck" the possibility of a statistically inferable ONH. Also, within a coherent group, like a suite of software applications, lateral transfer happens far more often in closely related contexts than in distantly related or completely unrelated ones. For example, while video editing software and photo editing software have some very different capabilities, they share a very similar context in terms of manipulating the display of still images (photos or video frames), and so we're not surprised to find a significant overlap in their features, though often with some domain-specific tweaking. Photo editing software also sometimes has some overlap with word processing software, with the former letting you add text to images and the latter letting you add images to blocks of text, but the general overlap is far less significant in this case than it is between photo editing and video editing applications, as are the similarities in the available functionality related to the domains where they overlap. There is also an overlap in word processing software and code editors for programming, since both let you type text, but the latter typically lacks the suite of features for the complex formatting of text found in word processing applications and has a whole host of other functions useful to application development that word processors don't generally have. Furthermore, the more distinct applications are from each other with reference to different domains, and the more the degree of lateral transfer of functionality is determined by similarity of context, the more likely it is that you're looking at a suite of applications developed by a single source, whether it be a single person or a single company that is guiding a unified vision.
To summarize: 1) It’s easy to wreck an ONH, and humans do it all the time.
No. Not relevant to the given circumstances.
2) You’re making a slew of unjustified assumptions about the designer.
No, I'm not.
3) If you make assumptions about the designer, you need to justify them.
My assumptions are very few, highly limited, and they are justified on any unbiased measure.
4) The justifications need to be solid enough to compensate for the trillions-to-one advantage of UE in explaining the ONH.
No, your whole trillion-to-one argument is wrong-headed.HeKS
November 27, 2014
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Box, Here's the funny thing. Lizzie was right. Granville's rebuttal consisted of "I may be wrong, but if I am, then I am in famous company." Introductory physics texts (As GS notes, not thermodynamics texts, interesting that) often try to introduce the idea of entropy with misleading analogies. My understanding is that more recent texts avoid this mistake. Granville's concept of "X-entropy" is fairly obviously wrong. It's the Second Law of Thermodynamics for a reason.DNA_Jock
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There isn't any need to apologize to a sock puppet.Joe
November 27, 2014
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@Keith #374, ThanksHeKS
November 27, 2014
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HeKS #369, I passed your message on to Adapa.keith s
November 27, 2014
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Because monotremes nest within mammals which nest within therapsids
In what way do mammals nest with theraspids? Please be specific or admit that you made it up.Joe
November 27, 2014
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wd400:
Those are not nested, nested means one group fits within a larger supergroup.
And populations (groups) do not fit into other populations.Joe
November 27, 2014
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logically_speaking: On if some traits are more important than others, or how many traits are shared between them, or both? Based on all the traits. You will also find that genetic and phenotypic data show largely consistent nested hierarchies. logically_speaking: It’s my experiment, I can set the rules. The experimental method involves varying parameters. logically_speaking: Second we do see mix and match like the duck billed platypus. The platypus exhibits primitive and derived features. logically_speaking: I never claimed it was a logical error, it is an elementary error. The claim wasn't unreasonable, and newer theories had to explain why it did seem reasonable at the time. Embryos from related taxa do resemble each other more than their developed forms. logically_speaking: Is the fact that it’s a pyramid, more important than it not being a cube, or a random hole in the floor. Regardless, it's objectively a pyramid. logically_speaking: I have been arguing against Theobald’s ONH which uses Phylogenetic cladistics. We have been very specific, and repeated our position multiple times. As for Theobald, he used two methods, one of which was inclusive. The result was substantially the same. logically_speaking: However, once again we are back to a subjective choice that will influence the outcome. Which mode of classification to use phenetic or cladistic analysis. When we say the temperature is a certain temperature, it's an objective measurement even if we are the ones to decide to measure it. Phenetic and cladistic analysis reveal substantially the same tree. There are anomalies, but that's to be expected when dealing with ancient transitions in lineages that have changed over time. logically_speaking: If we can arrange life “based on overall similarity of many characteristics without regard to evolutionary history or assumed significance of specific characters”, then evolution cannot be THE explanation for the nested hierarchies. Branching descent. logically_speaking: But unfortunately your counter example fails, as Boyle’s law is (probably) a fundamental universal constant, hense law. The counterexample works fine. We chose it because there was no ambiguity. It shows that simply because we name something after someone doesn't mean it is subjective. logically_speaking: You very well know “It’s complex, therefore design”, is NOT the design argument. Of course it is, hence IC and CSI, both of which concern what is purportedly otherwise unexplainable complexity. logically_speaking: But you don’t list all of the traits, why should I. Whales under w, bats under b. List all the traits, then form your groups. Look at blood, tissue, organs, skeleton, brains, neurons, skin, eyes, ears, lungs. Look at all of it, then form your groups. logically_speaking: What about all the traits they don’t share, why are these not important? Look at all the observable traits, then form your groups. logically_speaking: If we wrote down your classification on paper then sure whales could be closer to bats than fish, but it doesn’t mean anything. If we classify bats and whales along with other organisms, bats and whales will fit best with organisms such as dogs and squirrels than with fish. It's not that difficult. Perhaps we should start with a simpler example. Based on a study of observable traits, which one doesn't belong: cat, dog, sunflower. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ect-kgxBb4M logically_speaking: There are several ways to create such trees. Sure there are, but with biological organisms, they are largely in agreement. Having independent means of confirming the finding supports our confidence in the finding. Where they are not in agreement is of primary interest to biologists. Examples of anomalies include posited convergence, horizontal inheritance, adaptive radiation, etc. But that doesn't change the fact that when looking at observable traits, cats and dogs objectively fit best compared to sunflowers. And that when we examine many organisms they fit an objective nested hierarchy. logically_speaking: Interesting, why did you place the platypus at the end? Because monotremes nest within mammals which nest within therapsids which nest within synapsids, and so on.Zachriel
November 27, 2014
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// Granville Sewell and the second law // In post #326 Keith provides two links to previous discussions at UD on the second law (2LoT). Keith claims that Granville Sewell's paper took some "shellacking", notably by Elizabeth B Liddle; aka Lizzie. In both threads (here and here) the strategy employed by Lizzie is a very simple one: Insist on a absurdly narrow interpretation of the 2LoT. IOW pretend that it can only be applied to heat and energy and deny everything else; even if that makes you look extremely foolish. I don't wish to repeat the same discussion here. However, as a summary, two typical posts:
Lizzie to Granville Sewell You seem to think that a tidy house, or a computer, has less entropy than a messy house, or a computer after it has been sat on by an elephant. It doesn’t.
Granville Sewell to Keith s & Lizzie: Certainly the first formulations of the second law, which were all about heat and energy (...). But nearly all general physics texts (thermodynamics texts, not so much, since they prefer quantifiable applications) do give examples of “entropy” increases (in the more general sense) which have nothing to do with heat or energy, such as tornados, rust, fire, glasses breaking, cars colliding, etc. Isaac Asimov, in the Smithsonian magazine, even talked about the entropy increase associated with a house becoming more messy (see my footnote 6 in my Cornell contribution). So if I am confused in applying the more general formulations of the second law to things like tornados, I am at least in good company, as nearly all general physics textbooks do this, so I think it is quite unfair to say, as KeithS does, that I would be laughed out of any physics meeting.
To those, who think that Lizzie and Keith graciously accepted the correction by Granville Sewell and moved on, I say: think again, the both of them are incorrigible.Box
November 27, 2014
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Keith, On an unrelated note, I noticed this thread at TSZ where Adapa claims that I was taking pot shots at him after he was banned, when I knew he couldn't defend himself. Can you please pass on a message to him for me? (I don't feel like registering since I don't intend to participate there) Tell him I was not taking pot shots. That's not my style, and certainly not on the assumption that he was actually banned and wouldn't be able to respond. At that point it seemed to me he wasn't actually banned at all and might simply be in moderation, which meant he would ultimately have every chance to respond. Further, the timeline seemed unclear, because I was under the impression that his comments appearing in this thread were actually made after he thought he had been banned but that those comments had just been in moderation and had subsequently been let through. Perhaps I was mistaken. Of course, if he wants to go on thinking I'm a "coward" or other people want to think that by making a reference to his previous comments I was doing something "disgraceful and indefensible", he is (and they are) perfectly welcome to that opinion, but I'd rather it be clear that I'm saying I had no intention to take pot shots at someone because they weren't around to defend themselves. If I disagree with something someone says, I'm more than happy to tell them directly.HeKS
November 27, 2014
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HeKS:
The latest comment I’ve been working on is WAY longer than I expected and I’m not done yet.
That's unfortunate. Why not edit it down, making just the essential points, then elaborating later if needed? You also might want to consider splitting it into multiple comments.keith s
November 26, 2014
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The latest comment I've been working on is WAY longer than I expected and I'm not done yet. It will probably be up here some time tomorrow.HeKS
November 26, 2014
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Wd400, In my experiment, all large metal spoons could fall into nested hierarchy arrangement number six. The spoons fit into the super group of metals, which also includes large metal knives and large metal forks. The metal fits within the further super group of size, which also contains large plastic and large wooden cutlery. Any similarity between large, medium and small sized cutlery is due to convergent evolution or convergent design.logically_speaking
November 26, 2014
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Those are not nested, nested means one group fits within a larger supergroup. You the no nesting, just a line from a to c via b.wd400
November 26, 2014
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Amendment to, My experiment produces 162 end nodes/species, 54 mid points/classes, ## 18 hierarchies/domains, ## And begins with the 6 ways of arranging the cutlery in(to) nested hierarchies.logically_speaking
November 26, 2014
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Wd400 "Isn’t it funny how well DNA agrees with the “invented” classification of mammals". Care to site where you get that from? "And “monotremes” is only the end because it’s the parent-group to the leaf you specified". Actually zachriel specified monotremes, I asked about the platypus. You seem to be saying it's at the end because it’s at the end. The leaf is the end. "In eariler comment you seem to be confused by what it meant by nested. Your examples are ranked, not nested (there are > 10^300 nested arrangements for 162 “end nodes”, which is rather greater than 6". Nope I am not confused by nests or rankings. I'll try and help you again, The pile of cutlery contains, knives, forks and spoons. These will be classified as the functions. The materials shall be wood, plastic and metal. Finally the sizes shall be categorised as small, medium and large. Starting with the "parent-group" and ending with the "leaves". Working from the bottom up creates, 1. Material < size < function 2. Material < function < size 3. Function < size < material 4. Function < material < size 5. Size < function < material 6. Size < material < function Can you show me any other way to arrange the traits other than these 6.logically_speaking
November 26, 2014
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Me_Think: AFAIK Sal Cordova is an IDist. It seems you are ridiculing your fellow IDist. So?Mung
November 26, 2014
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Mung @ 360
Is this the same Salvador Cordova who deleted dissenting opinions from his threads? Oh look, there is no one who disagrees with Sal in any thread authored by Sal. Sal must be right. ID must be wrong.
AFAIK Sal Cordova is an IDist. It seems you are ridiculing your fellow IDist.Me_Think
November 26, 2014
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keiths:
You can really tell that IDers are getting desperate when they resort to second law arguments. Even Sal Cordova was embarrassed by them:
Is this the same Salvador Cordova who deleted dissenting opinions from his threads? Oh look, there is no one who disagrees with Sal in any thread authored by Sal. Sal must be right. ID must be wrong.Mung
November 26, 2014
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keiths:
I’m not saying that God the Designer chose it because he wanted to imitate unguided evolution. He may have chosen it for a different reason, or because he was somehow limited and had no alternative.
Why don't you just admit that in all your arguments there is only one designer and God is the designer and be done with it?Mung
November 26, 2014
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keiths: We know nothing about the designer. (How many times do I have to repeat that?) Which designer or designers?Mung
November 26, 2014
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keiths: Nothing about my argument assumes, or depends on, the indifference of the designer. Which designer or designers? keiths: Nothing about my argument assumes, or depends on, the omnipotence of the designer. Which designer or designers? keiths: Nothing about my argument assumes, or depends on, whether the designer does or does not like ONHs. Which designer or designers?Mung
November 26, 2014
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Isn't it funny how well DNA agrees with the "invented" classification of mammals. And "monotremes" is only the end because it's the parent-group to the leaf you specified. In eariler comment you seem to be confused by what it meant by nested. Your examples are ranked, not nested (there are > 10^300 nested arrangements for 162 "end nodes", which is rather greater than 6.wd400
November 26, 2014
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Wd400, The classification monotremes, is an invented class to place TWO otherwise unclassifiable animals (platypus and the spiny anteaters) into the tree. That's why it's at the end.logically_speaking
November 26, 2014
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Wd400, logically_speaking: There turns out to be 6 ways of arranging the cutlery in nested hierarchies You: There are actually (2n-5)!! nested hierarchies for the cutlery, where n is the number of pieces and !! is a double factorial. My response: I see how there may be confusion. My experiment produces 162 end nodes/species, 54 mid points/classes, And begins with the 6 ways of arranging the cutlery in nested hierarchies. I hope that helps. You: If there is a point to take from your example, it’s that there is little reason to think a tree estimated from “material” will perfectly match one estimated from “size”. My response: They don't match that's the point, but neither do phylogenetic trees. Which is the REASON WHY statistical analysis is needed to provide a best fit. You: But in biology, despite absurd number of possible tree-shapes, phylogenies estimated from different genes, and different characters generally agree pretty well. My response: No they don't the more information we obtain the more difference is observed. You: That’s how descent with modification works, it’s not how special creation tends to work (of course, nothing is impossible under special creation, so we can’t exclude it) My response: What's decent with modification? A rock rolling down a hill smashing on other rocks breaking bits off it, is decent with modification. Is that what you mean? What do you mean by special creation? Are you claiming that while special creation can be used to explain everything, decent with modification can't? Can you please explain what DWM can't do?logically_speaking
November 26, 2014
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Interesting, why did you place the platypus at the end? That's a very odd question. Because platypusses are nested within monotremes which are nested within mammals. Marsupials and eutherians are more closley related to each other than either are to monotremes, so monoteremes necessarily fit within mammals.wd400
November 26, 2014
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Zachriel, logically_speaking: There turns out to be 6 ways of arranging the cutlery in nested hierarchies You: That’s right. But there’s only one objective nested hierarchy for mammals; mammals, amniotes, tetrapods, gnastostomes, vertebrates, craniates, chordates, bilaterian, metazoa, eukaryotes. Again based on what? On if some traits are more important than others, or how many traits are shared between them, or both? logically_speaking: These evolutionists assume that the cutlery was changed over time by the manufacturers of the cutlery, there job is to find out the order of decent. You: No, multiple nested hierarchies is characteristics of design. That’s because designer mix-and-match. Try this: Could a centaur or griffin be a memory of some actual organism? My response: First off, yes. It's my experiment, I can set the rules. Second we do see mix and match like the duck billed platypus. Thirdly, what kind of question is that? please explain your reasoning for it if you seriously want an answer. logically_speaking: You may think it’s unlikely for generations of biologists to make elementary mistakes, it still can happen, and has happened. You: Yes, it can, but is much less likely than otherwise. Einstein didn’t show that Newton was making elementary mistakes. He showed why Newton was right within the limitations of the scientific knowledge of the time, while also answering new questions that had arisen due to new observations. My response: I mostly agree with you, in that, it SHOULD be less likely. But given the history of mistakes in science in general, it shows that mistakes are very common in science. Luckily most don't get through the checks and balances, but it is inevitable that some get through the cracks. Even the great man Einstein is said to be wrong on occasion. logically_speaking: Ontogeny recapitulates phylogeny is an interesting example You: That’s not an example of a logical error, but an extrapolation that was found to be somewhat in error. My response: I never claimed it was a logical error, it is an elementary error. I have explained this before, so I'll try it in other words. Anyone can have a theory that is logically consistent and correct, however if their starting assumptions are wrong (elementary mistakes), the final results with be wrong. Haeckel's results aren't wrong because his logic is wrong, he is wrong because his starting assumptions are wrong. logically_speaking: But the designer can choose whether to make it round, square, triangular or any other shape. You: That’s right, but when we observe the ‘tomb of Cheops’, it’s objectively a pyramid, a polyhedron formed by four triangles meeting at a point connecting to a square base. My response: Is the fact that it's a pyramid, more important than it not being a cube, or a random hole in the floor. Or that it is a tomb rather than a holiday home. Or that it was for Cheops only, and not for his cat? logically_speaking: Even IF you examined all traits, you will subjectively decide based on prior assumptions that some of the traits are more important than others. You: We have been explicit that we consider all traits. phenogram, a diagram depicting taxonomic relationships among organisms based on overall similarity of many characteristics without regard to evolutionary history or assumed significance of specific characters. My response: I see now why there is a disconnect between us. I have been arguing against Theobald's ONH which uses Phylogenetic cladistics. Because this is the basis of Keith’s argument. All my previous arguments attack this mode of classification. However, once again we are back to a subjective choice that will influence the outcome. Which mode of classification to use phenetic or cladistic analysis. But let's look at phenograms. If we can arrange life "based on overall similarity of many characteristics without regard to evolutionary history or assumed significance of specific characters", then evolution cannot be THE explanation for the nested hierarchies. logically_speaking: Exept it’s not objective, that is why it is call Linnaean taxonomy. You: No. That’s just silly. It’s not named Linnaean taxonomy because it was subjective any more than Boyle’s law is named after Boyle because the law is subjective. It’s called Linnaean taxonomy because of his use of nomenclature and nested classification. His results were objective within the limitations of his methods. In other words, independent observers could agree on his groupings. My response: I was being a tiny bit humorous there. But unfortunately your counter example fails, as Boyle’s law is (probably) a fundamental universal constant, hense law. Whereas any kind of taxonomy is simply a way to classify things in some sort of logical order, based around whatever we decide is important. logically_speaking: one of the main contentions of ID towards evolutionary scientists is that there is a fundamental error in that in biology an intelligent cause is ruled out a priori. You: Yes, we understand the claim. It’s rejected by the vast majority of working biologists, and IDers have yet to publish any significant research in support of their contention. Rather, they make claims without testable entailments. It comes down to “It’s complex, therefore design.” My response: Wow talk about trying to punch below the belt. Fall of false statements. You very well know “It’s complex, therefore design”, is NOT the design argument. logically_speaking: Interestingly the whale uses echolocation, as do bats. Whales live in the water, so do fish. A whale can be classified as a fish, if a fish is classified as a creature that lives in the water. You: Heh. We classify whales under w, and bats under b. The criteria was classification according to best fit of all observable traits. You can look at the blood and distinguish whales and fish. You can look at their skeletons and see that whales are closer to bats than fish. You can look at their hearts, eyes, muscles, or hair follicles, and understand that you are cherry-picking. My response: But you don't list all of the traits, why should I. You only listed the ones that you think are important, if I am then you are cherry-picking too. What about all the traits they don't share, why are these not important? And what do you mean by "whales are closer to bats than fish" (Let's ignore that both whales and fish live in the water and bats don't)? If we wrote down your classification on paper then sure whales could be closer to bats than fish, but it doesn't mean anything. logically_speaking: “The main reason why classification is subjective is because of the underlying assumption that the more traits a thing shares with another thing, the closer it must be related”? You: We’re discussing classification based on objective criteria without regard to any underlying explanation. My response: I've saved this for last, yes it seems we have been debating over slightly different things, but as it turns out its worse for your position. Here is a great article about phylogenetic trees, it is very informative about the different methods we have been discussing, http://www.cals.ncsu.edu/course/ent425/text02/phylotrees.html A few quotes, "There are several ways to create such trees. The method chosen often depends on the distinctiveness of each taxon, the type and quality of categorical data available, and the scientist's overall philosophy toward classification". ##Spot the subjectivity## "Even under the best of circumstances, developing such a dendrogram requires a great deal of speculation because the fossil record is often fragmentary (or entirely absent)". ##We haven't even discussed fossils and the problems in classifying THEM## "In a phenogram, each branch point represents a step of increasing similarity - taxa which share the most characters (both primitive and advanced) perch next to one another in the family tree even though they do not necessarily share a common ancestor". ##Not necessarily share a common ancestor## logically_speaking: If you classify organisms by their traits please tell me where the duck billed platypus goes in your objectively specific nested hierarchy? You: Monotremes, mammals, amniotes, tetrapods, gnastostomes, vertebrates, craniates, chordates, bilaterian, metazoa, eukaryotes. My response: Interesting, why did you place the platypus at the end? Why couldn't the order be, mammals, monotremes, amniotes, tetrapods, gnastostomes, vertebrates, craniates, chordates, bilaterian, metazoa, eukaryotes.logically_speaking
November 26, 2014
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Unguided evolution cannot explain the existence of HOX genes- not to beat around the bush and all.Joe
November 26, 2014
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Barry Arrington writes:
Yes, and developmental biology is extremely bad news for Darwinian evolution.
That's an interesting assessment. I'm puzzled why you should think so.
Significant changes in body plans require mutations early in the development process. We know one thing about such mutations with absolute certainty: All (as in 100%, without exception) such mutations that have been observed have resulted in non-viable organisms. With respect to mutations and body plans, the ironclad rule that has been observed is: Significant mutations are not viable; viable mutations are not significant.
Absolute certainty, you say! If we're talking Hox genes here, I think you are, not to beat about the bush, wrong.
As for the rest of your comment, it is clear that your faith is very strong.
Just the facts, Barry! ;)Alicia Renard
November 26, 2014
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Re Silver Asiatic in #331 Glad you appreciated my point. Silver Asiatic writes (335):
It’s not merely the appearance of these several implausible events, but they have to occur simultaneously – and they have to have this relationship in order to broadcast and receive signals – and then to code and translate and act on the signals.
E. coli bacteria have the ability to position themselves in an optimum nutrient concentration. They do this by a version of random orientation and selection - "swim in randomly chosen straight line, if things get better keep going, if things get worse randomly generate new direction and swim etc repeated". link) so there is a rudimentary awareness in the simplest of organisms. In metazoa, there are differentiated cells that form a sensory system and a nervous system and musculature for movement. We see many interesting morphological features way back in the dep Cambrian. Visual receptors are obvious, there are also antennae and surely chemoreceptors and why not sensitivity to touch and vibration. So there's plenty of time for more elaborate eyes and ears to develop from these ancestral roots.
A randomly generated broadcast of a meaningless sound – only received by organisms capable of sensing the sound, but even for them, it’s a meaningless sound. If they don’t have the capability of returning a sound, there’s no feedback in the communication loop (and the sender won’t know to send again or retain the same sound).
Animals need to locate food to sustain themselves but sexually reproducing animals also need to locate a mate if their genes are to stay in the population. Smell, sight and hearing are all very useful for prey location and predator avoidance so co-option for mate location is not a huge step. Then sexual selection can kick in to produce runaway features. It seems to me at least reasonable that language evolution in our human (and near pre_human) ancestors could have had an element of sexual selection.
Supposedly, these sounds were mindlessly and accidentally correlated with objects or events. And both sender and receiver recognized the same correlation simultaneously.
Vocal communication is widely used in the animal kingdom, especially in highly social animals. Chimps use a range of vocalisations in various social contexts.
I’ve read a few attempts to explain the evolutionary origin of information and all of them sound like Alicia Renard’s. Things just must have happened simultaneously and now we have Shakespeare and the internet.
As I said, I think a sexual display element is plausible in development of human language. The power of poetry to seduce should not be underestimated. :)Alicia Renard
November 26, 2014
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