Uncommon Descent Serving The Intelligent Design Community

How the scientific method, as currently practised, protects weak or bad theories

Share
Facebook
Twitter
LinkedIn
Flipboard
Print
Email

And why it is okay – even necessary -for lay people to critique science theories.

From lawyer and social analyst Edward Sisson: “God of the gaps” assumes that science steadily fills-in gaps. But this is an artifact of the sociological rule that Stephen Jay Gould noted, that widely-accepted theories (i.e., filled-in former gaps) are never rejected until someone comes along to offer a more persuasive replacement theory.

But an existing theory may be false for reasons evident to a rational layperson, due to inherent conflicts in its underlying logic, or due to reliance on falsified assumptions, etc., which a reasoning mind can identify even if the particular person does not have the specialized training necessary to construct an alternative theory. Juries in civil court cases (i.e., laypeople) do this kind of thing hundreds, perhaps thousands, of times each year, in product liability cases, design defect cases, medical malpractice cases, patent infringement cases, etc., where an expert for the plaintiff presents a technical theory and the lawyer for the defense, perhaps relying on an expert, identifies holes in the plaintiff’s theory, without having to develop an alternative theory.

The sociological problem in the science world is that there is no funding for the role of a defense-only advocate, whose only job is to poke holes in the plaintiff’s theory, without having to present an alternative theory. Of course, if the defense CAN present an alternative theory, so much the better; but there is no requirement to do so. In the science world, the only funded career-path is for theory-creators.

In the criminal context, it would be as if defendant X could not simply have a defense counsel, but had to hire his own prosecution team whose job was to prove that mister Z was the real criminal; and the trial would be a competition of presentations between the two prosecution teams, where the jury had to decide that either X or Z did the crime.

If we had a scientific system in which there was a regular, funded career path for people to debunk existing theories, without replacing them, what we would see is that issues once thought to have been answered by science (filled-in gaps) would suddenly go blank again, leaving the gap re-opened, with nothing replacing it. We would not see a steady, but false, impression of gaps being steadily filled.

It is to keep this from happening that we are told that only credentialed scientists are allowed to reject theories, and that laypeople are not allowed to do so.

The problem with this argument is that individuals, by the time they reach college age, are pretty much “set” in their level of intelligence and analytical ability. Many have a sufficient intellectual ability to analyze theories, identify logical inconsistencies, etc. All of these people have the ability, should they wish to, to go into science and develop knowledge necessary to be able to present credible new theories — but only a few do. Those who choose not to, still retain the intellectual ability to discredit theories, and later in life, they may find themselves involved in some situation where they apply their minds to some theory to see if it is internally logically consistent, etc. They cannot be ruled out-of-bounds in this, in deference to those few who chose to develop the additional expertise necessary to construct new theories.

Comments
Why am I not surprised. DrBot, Elizabeth, MIA.Mung
August 11, 2011
August
08
Aug
11
11
2011
08:18 PM
8
08
18
PM
PDT
Weasel uses 26 characters. How many different characters do you think are in the DNA character set?Petrushka
August 10, 2011
August
08
Aug
10
10
2011
10:18 AM
10
10
18
AM
PDT
Hi DrBot, It probably wasn't that difficult for you to miss the point, perhaps due to ignoring half my post, the half that addresses the objections you raised. Would you object to the following, and if so why? @target = “METHINKS IT IS LIKE A WEASEL” Charset = “ METHINKSLKAW” I mean, seriously, what do we need all those excess letters for? We can do the same thing with 12 letters and a space, can't we? Are they just there for effect, for the illusion? Yeah, probably. Why did the GA designer choose that set of characters and not some other set of characters, and was it in fact a design decision?Mung
August 10, 2011
August
08
Aug
10
10
2011
09:08 AM
9
09
08
AM
PDT
You ran into design the instant you selected the end-target.
trueMung
August 10, 2011
August
08
Aug
10
10
2011
08:50 AM
8
08
50
AM
PDT
I’m getting the distinct impression that I understand how they work far better than you do.
LOL, thats made my week mung ;)
# Define the goal/target that the GA is searching for @target = “METHINKS IT IS LIKE A WEASEL”
Or we could use a multi variable function, or make reproductive ability intrinsic to the environment. Lots of ways to do it.
# Define the set of characters that we get to choose from Charset = ” ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ”
Good, we have some analog of physical matter.
STOP RIGHT THERE! My gosh. Two lines into the program and we’ve just been smacked in the face by design.
Yes, life needs to be made from stuff in order to exist and you need differential replication rates for evolution to occur. If you want to create a model (or in this case a simple pedagogical example) you need to write some software. What you've got here is 'goalpost blindness'. For evolution to occur you need some prerequisites (replication, phenotypes, differential replication rates) which could, in the case of biology, all be the result of God designing the universe. pointing to a designed evolutionary system doesn't stop it working, just as pointing out than an airplane was designed doesn't render it incapable of flight.DrBot
August 10, 2011
August
08
Aug
10
10
2011
12:44 AM
12
12
44
AM
PDT
RHampton7 @ 117, So, Chaitin has finally swallowed the Darwinistic Kool-Aide he's been swishing around in his mouth? On the one hand, I'm not surprised, as it was clear to me that he *wanted* to believe evolutionism to be true. But, on the other hand, of the very tiny bit of his prose writing (about his work) I'd read, it also seemed clear that he grasped the logical/mathematical absurdity of Darwinism. Goodness!? Will he next jump on the 'avida' bandwagon -- which his work in mathematics shows does not do, and cannot ever in principle do, what its developers and proponents claim it does?Ilion
August 10, 2011
August
08
Aug
10
10
2011
12:25 AM
12
12
25
AM
PDT
"Mung, how about you write a WEASEL program, and post it here?" Once again, I must remark with amazement at the potency of "natural selection" -- so potent it is that artificial "natural selection" (i.e. any "model" of it ever presented or discussed) is utterly indistinguishable from "un-natural selection".Ilion
August 10, 2011
August
08
Aug
10
10
2011
12:16 AM
12
12
16
AM
PDT
Mung, G. J. Chaitin is developing a mathematical model of Evolution, and he starts by explaining how a random walk can limit its exploratory field by purely natural means ("A mathematical theory of evolution and biological creativity", www.cs.umaine.edu/~chaitin/sfi.pdf) I suspect the ideas will be further developed in his latest book, "Proving Darwin: Making Biology Mathematical", to be published in 2012.rhampton7
August 9, 2011
August
08
Aug
9
09
2011
05:56 PM
5
05
56
PM
PDT
You ran into design the instant you selected the end-target.Ilion
August 9, 2011
August
08
Aug
9
09
2011
05:54 PM
5
05
54
PM
PDT
Ruby is currently my favorite language, so let's look at a Ruby version. Pretty easy to understand. # Define the goal/target that the GA is searching for @target = "METHINKS IT IS LIKE A WEASEL" # Define the set of characters that we get to choose from Charset = " ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRSTUVWXYZ" STOP RIGHT THERE! My gosh. Two lines into the program and we've just been smacked in the face by design. Why limit the possible character to just this set? Aren't they exactly what we need for the program to work? How do we know in advance that that we should choose from that set of characters? Elizabeth, would you say that these characters are random with respect to the goal or target phrase? Should we infer that living organisms have been gifted by a designer with just the set of 'characters' they need in order to find the 'solution' to the problem they are attempting to solve? So what can we do to alter the bias and obvious design? Choose from a random set of characters. Alter the characters that are available during the run. Toss in complete non-characters. But whichever path we decide to take we absolutely must dispense with this blatant case of intelligent design.Mung
August 9, 2011
August
08
Aug
9
09
2011
04:55 PM
4
04
55
PM
PDT
You can post yours if you like, but I don't plan to re-invent the wheel: http://rosettacode.org/wiki/Evolutionary_algorithmMung
August 9, 2011
August
08
Aug
9
09
2011
03:39 PM
3
03
39
PM
PDT
Mung, how about you write a WEASEL program, and post it here? And I'll post mine.Elizabeth Liddle
August 9, 2011
August
08
Aug
9
09
2011
01:49 PM
1
01
49
PM
PDT
Organisms aren’t replicated by their environment.
Ergo...Mung
August 9, 2011
August
08
Aug
9
09
2011
01:34 PM
1
01
34
PM
PDT
Elizabeth Liddle:
Mung, do you understand how WEASEL algorithms work?
I'm getting the distinct impression that I understand how they work far better than you do.
Mung, do you know what a “model” is?
Enough not to confuse what is being modeled with the GA being used. http://ccl.northwestern.edu/netlogo/models/SimpleGeneticAlgorithm What is it that you think the Weasel program is intended to model?Mung
August 9, 2011
August
08
Aug
9
09
2011
01:28 PM
1
01
28
PM
PDT
Mung:
Well, you see, if each “organism” is represented in memory by “bits” and we copy x number of bits from “organism” A and copy x number of bits from “organism” B and we combine them to create a representation for “organism” C that just is sexual reproduction, by definition. And it helps to likewise pretend that these are actual organisms, even though they aren’t.
It's. A. Model.
Of course, if Elizabeth can convince herself that I’m talking about living organisms and populations rather than the representations that exist in a GA it helps her pretend that I’m being completely unreasonable and don’t know what I’m talking about.
Well, you don't seem to know what a model is. OK: let's say it isn't a model. Let's say it's a perfectly real GA set up in order to produce novel clock designs. Or, if you like, consider the NASA antenna-designing GA. In both cases, just as in nature, we have: 1.A population of self replicators 2.An environment that favours some function not possessed, or possessed only in crude form by the population. 3.Self-replication with variance Right? Exactly what we have in nature. And, in both the clock program and the antenna program, the population evolves to become a population of virtual organisms that performs the function favoured by that environment extremely well. Why will that not happen in nature as well, given that the conditions and contingencies are identical?Elizabeth Liddle
August 9, 2011
August
08
Aug
9
09
2011
08:20 AM
8
08
20
AM
PDT
Ilion:
In what sense of ‘equivalent’ is “replication of an ‘organism’ by its environment” equivalent to either self-replication or sexual reproduction?
Not sure who you are addressing, or who you are quoting. Organisms aren't replicated by their environment. If I said so, it was a typo. But I can't find where anyone said so. Unless you are thinking that when, in a computer model, an "offspring" virtual critter is generated within the model, that the critter is being "replicated by its environment". Well, no. Again, you're mistaking the territory for the map. Actually in this case you've mistaken the territory for the inhabitants of the territory. Computer models are models, run on a computer. The computer isn't part of the model. Nor are all components of the model, "the model". They are, well, components of the model. In something like the clock model, the analog of the environment is the competition between three randomly drawn clocks (cf two bulls fighting for fair lady). The analog of the population of organisms is the starting population of virtual "clocks" (only two of which have any clock function at all). The analog of reproduction is the process by which the two winning clocks in any competition have their genomes randomly combined and then mutated to produce one "offspring". The two winning parents and their offspring are then returned to the pool. BTW, I have just realised that Mung meant that the losing candidate parent was overwritten by the offspring of the successful parent. Yes, in this case, that's what happens, but that's not the reproduction analog, that's the analog of less successful critters dying sooner (and a handy way of keeping the population constant - you don't have to, though, I often let my population Ns fluctuate).Elizabeth Liddle
August 9, 2011
August
08
Aug
9
09
2011
08:08 AM
8
08
08
AM
PDT
Mung:
Well, since the critters in WEASEL don’t reproduce sexually, I’d have to say no, it’s not a quibble about whether sexual reproduction counts as self replication, and since there was never a first quibble about whether sexual reproduction counts as self replication, this would not be another quibble about it.
Oh good. I will resume referring to the production of offspring by parents as "self-replication" again. I guess we could also call it "reproduction".
Nor do the critters in WEASEL “produce offspring.” Nor do they breed.
Mung, do you understand how WEASEL algorithms work? I offered to post one here, but then it turned out there were lots online. Have you not looked at the code?
Does the truth really hurt the case for Darwinism that much?
um.
Does it hurt so much to say that a string stored in one memory location is copied into another memory location overwriting the string at that location?
Golly. Mung, do you know what a "model" is? And you can model reproduction in various ways. Having the offspring commit parenticide isn't usually a good idea.
Why do you insist on calling that procedure “self-replication”?
Because that would be what we were modelling, except that an automatic parenticide model you suggest would be pretty useless (unless you had lots of offpring from each parent, of course, that would work). But in that case you wouldn't be "over-writing" the parent with a single offspring. You'd need more greater memory allocation for a start. Normally you would let each critter reproduce ("self-replicate") serially for as long as they survive some culling procedure. Go have a look at some code. Or maybe I'll post mine.Elizabeth Liddle
August 9, 2011
August
08
Aug
9
09
2011
07:38 AM
7
07
38
AM
PDT
Well, you see, if each "organism" is represented in memory by "bits" and we copy x number of bits from "organism" A and copy x number of bits from "organism" B and we combine them to create a representation for "organism" C that just is sexual reproduction, by definition. And it helps to likewise pretend that these are actual organisms, even though they aren't. Of course, if Elizabeth can convince herself that I'm talking about living organisms and populations rather than the representations that exist in a GA it helps her pretend that I'm being completely unreasonable and don't know what I'm talking about.Mung
August 8, 2011
August
08
Aug
8
08
2011
09:04 PM
9
09
04
PM
PDT
In what sense of 'equivalent' is "replication of an 'organism' by its environment" equivalent to either self-replication or sexual reproduction?Ilion
August 8, 2011
August
08
Aug
8
08
2011
07:06 PM
7
07
06
PM
PDT
Elizabeth Liddle:
Of course the critters in WEASEL self-replicate.
How?
Or is this another quibble on whether sexual reproduction counts as self replication?
Well, since the critters in WEASEL don't reproduce sexually, I'd have to say no, it's not a quibble about whether sexual reproduction counts as self replication, and since there was never a first quibble about whether sexual reproduction counts as self replication, this would not be another quibble about it. Nor do the critters in WEASEL "produce offspring." Nor do they breed. Does the truth really hurt the case for Darwinism that much? Does it hurt so much to say that a string stored in one memory location is copied into another memory location overwriting the string at that location? Why do you insist on calling that procedure "self-replication"?Mung
August 8, 2011
August
08
Aug
8
08
2011
04:03 PM
4
04
03
PM
PDT
Of course the critters in WEASEL self-replicate. If they didn't it wouldn't work. Self-replication with heritable variance in ability to self-replicate. Or is this another quibble on whether sexual reproduction counts as self replication? I think when I made my WEASEL I gave it sexual reproduction. So call it breeding. Something that produces offspring, anyway.Elizabeth Liddle
August 8, 2011
August
08
Aug
8
08
2011
03:06 PM
3
03
06
PM
PDT
Elizabeth Liddle: In the case of WEASEL, the ability of a critter to self-replicate in the environment is determined solely by how closely it resembles the sentence... You realize, of course, that the "critters" in WEASEL do not self-replicated.Mung
August 8, 2011
August
08
Aug
8
08
2011
10:37 AM
10
10
37
AM
PDT
Mung: re WEASEL - WEASEL is Darwinian in the sense that replication with variance in the ability to self-replicate in an environment results in adaptation to that environment. In the case of WEASEL, the ability of a critter to self-replicate in the environment is determined solely by how closely it resembles the sentence "methinks it is like a weasel" and no other criterion. So although it fits the definition, it isn't at all like any livng population in any natural environment (although it is a little like a living population of pigeons in a pigeon fancier's environment, where the breeder has a single criterion for breeding). If you want to say, therefore, that the environment does the designing, in WEASEL, that's fine. Similarly the pigeon fanciers do the design in pigeon breeding. But the analog in natural selection to the Designer, in that case is the natural environment That's what does the designing (if you are going to be consistent). In which case I sign on for ID: I believe that life was, and continues to be, designed by the environments, resulting in exquisitely designed living things that function beautifully in a myriad of environments.Elizabeth Liddle
August 8, 2011
August
08
Aug
8
08
2011
06:25 AM
6
06
25
AM
PDT
ba77;
... perhaps you can also start off by proving that materialism, upon which neo-Darwinism is built in the first place, is the true description for the foundation of reality, instead of Theism being the true foundation.
It seems to me that our experience with theories built within the paradigm of theism is a story of how we have come to understand nature as something operating within strict physical law, without detectable traces of magic or forces outside of the manifest physical reality at work. I am thinking of forces like energy and gravity, and how they seem to be the workhorse of the universe; at work both in the formation of anythingm from galaxies to black holes, solar systems and much more. Whereas the 'theory' that unknowable, unidentifiable entities (not forces, magical or not) have been at work sometime, somewhere, somehow, - in biology. While at the same time, from our experience with reproduction observe how entirely materialistic forces in a materialistic way are capable of building the most complex machine ever built: The human body. As far as I can tell, the question ID claims has been answered is just a question that has not been answered: Did anything not material, i.e. one or more intelligence(s) not resident in a physical substrate ever perform any action on this or any other planet? And how would we know?Cabal
August 8, 2011
August
08
Aug
8
08
2011
05:38 AM
5
05
38
AM
PDT
MODERATORS: I have a comment stuck in the moderation queue. I think I committed the "too many links" infraction. I'd appreciate if you could wave it through, as it's remarkably, undeniably profound, and intended for the benefit of all humanity. 'cause that's how I roll.material.infantacy
August 7, 2011
August
08
Aug
7
07
2011
07:00 PM
7
07
00
PM
PDT
Elizabeth Liddle:
You are, again, mistaking the designing of the critter itself for the design of the fitness function.
I am doing no such thing. The "critters" in weasel are character strings. The "fitness function" in weasel decides which string from the population provides the closest match to the target phrase and therefore which string will be used to seed the next generation. It's nice to see you finally admit that both the critters and the fitness function are designed. If we used for our genome strings of 23 characters how would we ever hope to find the target? Of if we varied the length of the genomes during a run?
In the case of the WEASEL program, this is irrelevant, but WEASEL is totally unlike biology in a huge numbers of respects, not least because there is no distinction between genotype and phenotype, and, just as important, only a single solution to the problem posed.
Are you denying that WEASEL is Darwinian?
Mung
August 7, 2011
August
08
Aug
7
07
2011
07:00 PM
7
07
00
PM
PDT
Mung @ 95, Exactly. To claim that "chance" caused some effect is exactly to say that the event or state-change is not an effect at all, for one is claiming that it happened without cause.Ilion
August 7, 2011
August
08
Aug
7
07
2011
06:51 PM
6
06
51
PM
PDT
lol Mung, I was a little afraid that I might be taken seriously. xp No I don't think chance "causes" anything; however we are fond of saying "it happened by chance" just as we are of saying "the sun rose at 5:58 AM" or "the sun sets at 8:05 PM." Some of these are linguistic conveniences, and practically everybody knows what one means when they are uttered. In casual conversation, it hardly seems worth the worry that these aren't entirely accurate accounts, IMO; although I CAN see the importance of fretting for a published paper, or a book (depending on the audience). m.i.material.infantacy
August 7, 2011
August
08
Aug
7
07
2011
06:46 PM
6
06
46
PM
PDT
haha. m.i picks up the red phone and issues the launch codes. Dembski one wrote that chance can generate information, it just can't generate complex specified information. I don't know if he still believes that chance can generate information. But chance cannot be a cause of anything, for chance is no thing. There are unknown causal factors, and there are causal factors which can be described using certain distributions, but that is different from chance causing those distributions.Mung
August 7, 2011
August
08
Aug
7
07
2011
06:26 PM
6
06
26
PM
PDT
Does anyone think chance caused this sentence to contain information? Chance can cause all kinds of things, but it certainly can't cause the information we see contained in this sentence. The information contained within this sentence could likely not have been caused by chance, although it may or may not contain information, depending on whether or not it was caused by chance. Chance could cause this: "aujtrhjmviiumrnmguwpnghsafgny" but it couldn't cause this: "string containing information" unless, of course, chance could cause strings to contain information, which is not entirely impossible. With that finally out there, how could chance cause the information contained in DNA? Is it possible? Or, out of all the things which chance does cause, is the information contained in DNA not on the list? xp m.imaterial.infantacy
August 7, 2011
August
08
Aug
7
07
2011
06:19 PM
6
06
19
PM
PDT
1 2 3 5

Leave a Reply