Insane Scaremongering on a Colossal Scale

_{Barry Arrington

March 22, 2020

Intelligent Design}

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JVL:

If we take the CFR for COVID-19 to be 2% . . . it’s a low estimate . . . in order to exceed Barry‘s limit* of 200,000 deaths in the US there would have to be over 10 million cases in the US. Wikipedia says the 2019 estimated population of the US is about 328 million so that means about 3% of the population would have to be diagnosed. It’s impossible to say, now, of course, but I’d be inclined to think that it’s fairly likely that 3% of the US population will get infected. We’ll see . . . .

JVL says “it’s fairly likely that” around 3% of the US population of 328,000,000 will contract COVID 19, resulting in 10,000,000 cases. (The exact number is 3.0488%.) He also says that of those 10 million cases, the fatality rate (CFR) is likely to be at least 2%, resulting in over 200,000 deaths.

This is insane scaremongering on a grand scale.

And it is easy to demonstrate this. Right now, as I write this, China (population 1.386 BILLION) has had a total of 81,054 cases. See here. 72,440 of those have recovered. There are 5,353 active cases. 1,845 of those are “serious.” There have been 3,261 deaths.

Deaths per day in China peaked at 150 on February 23. On March 21, there were 6 deaths. New cases peaked at 14,108 on February 12. On March 21 there were 46.

Significantly, there have been ZERO new cases reported in Wuhan for the 4th day in a row.

Inescapable conclusion. The epidemic has nearly run its course in China.

Let’s do a little simple math. Total deaths in a country with a population of 1.386 BILLION will almost certainly be under 10,000, perhaps under 5,000. Total cases will probably be less than 100,000.

Why in the world would anyone believe that total deaths in a county with a population of 328 million will approach 200,000? For that to happen, there would have to be over 20 times the deaths in a population that is one-fourth the size.

Why in the world would anyone believe that total cases in a county with a population of 328 million will approach 10 million? For that to happen, there would have to be 100 times the cases in a population that is one-fourth the size.

________________

*I don’t know what JVL means by Barry’s limit of 200,000 deaths. Jim Thibodeau believes there will be over 200,000 deaths, not I. I believe there will be a fraction (probably a very tiny fraction) of 60,000 deaths, in other words, far fewer than the deaths caused by the flu last year.

Comments

Jim Thibodeau, I know this may be hard for your brain to grasp, since I'm using words that don't appear on the bumper sticker slogans you salivate over. Before a hypothesis can become a scientific theory, it must be seen and the results replicated. It's called the Scientific Method, which has never happened with macroevolution. Science is not about fact, but laws, theories and hypothesis. As for COVID-19, the flu is more deadly than the virus, by far. It is not a particularly lethal virus to begin with and the new mutation has not suddenly made COVID far more deadly than it was. Since North Korea started mass testing, they find that 99% of people who test positive develop mild to moderate symptoms. 1% develops severe symptoms.BobRyan_{March 22, 2020
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Jim Thib How many read this blog? One too many, at least/Belfast_{March 22, 2020
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Inescapable conclusion. The epidemic has nearly run its course in China.
RUN ITS COURSE? Did you first read about this today? It took a dictatorship invoking a state-wide lockdown to end transmission of this virus in HUbei. If such measures are not introduced a virs will only "run it's course" when the number of susceptible hosts in reduced (by death and aquired immunity) that it's hard for the virus to jump. China will probably have to start lock downs in other provnces now, as it will start to import cases from Europe and the US and so many people are not resistant to this. For some context, >3 000 of the deaths occurred in Hubie province with a population about 6 times less than the US (59 million). So, those very draconian measures kept the number down to the equivalent of 20 000 deaths in the US. But the US has been slow to enact measures and the virus is no longer localised as ti was in China. It's hard to see how the US could avoid have may more times infections than China did in its first pulse (though China may well suffer more epidemic waves in the future too).Angraecum_{March 22, 2020
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@20 Jim Thibodea
OK, I feel like I’ve spent all day on this site,
And contributed nothing. :)Truthfreedom_{March 22, 2020
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Jim, "I don’t have to make any arguments . . ." Nonsense. You are advocating policy positions NOW based on your analysis of the data. You have a moral duty to support your advocacy with cogent arguments -- or shut up altogether, which we both know you are not going to do. That you suggest that you may choose to shirk that duty speaks volumes in itself.Barry Arrington_{March 22, 2020
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OK, I feel like I’ve spent all day on this site, I’ve got to stop and go do life stuff for a while.Jim Thibodeau_{March 22, 2020
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Jawa, you should compare that to the big evolution sites, like evolution.berkeley.edu, or Nature. All those sites you mentioned have something to do with intelligent design, pro or con, but interest in that collapsed 98% after Dover. Searches for evolution are 100 times higher, google says.Jim Thibodeau_{March 22, 2020
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Jawa, I know what most of the abbreviations mean but not all. Would you please spell them out once? Thanks.Barry Arrington_{March 22, 2020
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Jim "Barry you missed the joke." Yes, I missed the joke. If it were just him and just on this site, it might even be funny. Fact is, JVL's scaremongering is puny compared to some, such as those who predicted deaths in the millions just in this country. Not a laughing matter.Barry Arrington_{March 22, 2020
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There is no intelligence in 'nature', that is why we need the best science to fight against a tiny virus. :)Truthfreedom_{March 22, 2020
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Jim Thibodeau @1: "How many people read this blog?" Good question. Dunno. :) Alexa rank: EN:...........220,812.....1% TO:.........423,953....1% UD:.........520,093.....1% SW:.........764,857.....1% PT:.......2,993,448.....3% TSZ:....5,435,694....6% PS:.... [still off radar] :)jawa_{March 22, 2020
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Sometimes the human brain gets bored an generates a 'self' (for no reason). Brains do not want to feel lonely. :) They know them-selves.Truthfreedom_{March 22, 2020
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The human brain 'generates' mathematics for no reason. :)Truthfreedom_{March 22, 2020
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The immune system has no 'purpose'. :)Truthfreedom_{March 22, 2020
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@AaronS1978: I don’t have to make any arguments that will just be ignored, when I can just wait several months and the numbers will speak for themselves.Jim Thibodeau_{March 22, 2020
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Saying screw auto correct Btw just saw your reply so scratch mineAaronS1978_{March 22, 2020
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If every thing he is say is wrongAaronS1978_{March 22, 2020
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I do believe the media is inciting panic but that doesn’t make the virus any less serious but the media is definitely blowing this up a lot more than it should be I can name no one that has survived but I can name all the people that died from it There’s never any news on recovery there’s always news about death how infectious it is how terrible it is it’s 30 times more likely to do this it’s 10 times more likely to be bad Two people of died in Arizona and that’s all you hear about apparently nobody has recovered even though we found out that a great deal of many people are Asymptomatic All I have to say is everybody needs to be careful wash your hands be courteous to others and stop trying to murder people over toilet paper because the media scared me into thinking that if you catch this disease you’re going to die To Jim Shut Barry down. If everything you saying is wrong simply cut and paste it off the Internet and show him he’s wrong. There is a fine line between people dismissing it and panic seekers and the panic seekers need to stop A lot of people playing this down are still taking all the same precautions to make sure nobody gets sick And I’ll tell you this right now if things get any worse over this stupid disease, and panic continues to go out of control, and our economy crashes over this crap, I am 100% certain that a home invasion over the food and toilet paper you’ve hoarded is far worse for you health then the disease that cause itAaronS1978_{March 22, 2020
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Barry you missed the joke. He isn’t scaremongering on a “colossal scale”. Even if he were scaremongering, which assumes facts not in evidence, he would be doing so here on a small blog. Not colossal scale.Jim Thibodeau_{March 22, 2020
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CDC estimates that influenza has resulted in between 9 million – 45 million illnesses, between 140,000 – 810,000 hospitalizations and between 12,000 – 61,000 deaths annually since 2010. -- https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html
That's for the U.S. alone We just now hit 416 covid-19 deaths in the United States according to: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries Where was the panic at 12,000 to 61,000 regular flu deaths?harry_{March 22, 2020
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Latemarch, We can't have it both ways. The Chinese data is the bees knees when it shows an apocalypse; it is suspect when it shows improvement. But I take your point. The Chicoms are liars of epic proportions. On this, however, I tend to think they are telling the truth. They know they are under intense scrutiny from the entire world. For that reason (and not because I think they are trustworthy), I tend to believe these numbers.Barry Arrington_{March 22, 2020
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BA: And it is easy to demonstrate this. Right now, as I write this, China (population 1.386 BILLION) has had a total of 81,054 cases. See here. 72,440 of those have recovered. There are 5,353 active cases. 1,845 of those are “serious.” There have been 3,261 deaths. Deaths per day in China peaked at 150 on February 23. On March 21, there were 6 deaths. New cases peaked at 14,108 on February 12. On March 21 there were 46. Significantly, there have been ZERO new cases reported in Wuhan for the 4th day in a row. Inescapable conclusion. The epidemic has nearly run its course in China.
There have been reports that the reason the cases in Wuhan have stopped is because the CCP (Chinese Communist Party) has stopped testing. Suspicious how quickly it just stopped. You're hanging supposition on the CCP's data....tenuous at best. That said, death rate will probably turn out to be in the 1% range. Worse than influenza but no where near the 3% seen in Italy. It's not yet clear whether or not the hunkering down will indeed bend the curve but again I'm optimistic that its working. Overall the total excess deaths in the US will be in the 10K range not in the 100K range.Latemarch_{March 22, 2020
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BTW, readers will probably notice I let JVL get away with estimating the fatality rate at 2%, which is almost certainly nearly double the actual rate. If that turns out the be the case, my conclusions are even more solid.Barry Arrington_{March 22, 2020
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Do you have a point Jim? If so, perhaps you should attempt to make it. Show me wrong. To do that you will have to refute one or more of my points. Do you believe the virus has not peaked in China? If so, what is your evidence for that? Do you believe the US will have 20 times the deaths and 100 times the cases even though we have less than one-fourth the population? What is your evidence for that?Barry Arrington_{March 22, 2020
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Colossal scale? How many people read this blog?Jim Thibodeau_{March 22, 2020
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