Is COVID-19 the end of “Trust Science!!”?

_{May 11, 2020

Canada, Culture, Intelligent Design, Science}

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What happens when “science” is speaking with dozens of different voices, each a momentary flash of Truth unto itself?

Recently, some interesting facts came to light from Canada about who is really affected by COVID-19:

The National Institute on Aging says that as of May 6, 3,436 residents and six staff members of long term care settings had died of COVID-19, representing 82 per cent of the 4,167 deaths reported as of Wednesday…
Last fall, the National Institute on Aging warned long term care homes were plagued by conditions that increased the risk of spreading infections: people living in close quarters in residences faced with chronic shortages of staff, with little space or ability to enforce proper physical distancing measures, where poorly paid employees often work on a part-time basis at multiple facilities, increasing the risk.
The pandemic has borne out those fears.
Tonda MacCharles, “82% of Canada’s COVID-19 deaths have been in long-term care, new data reveals” at Toronto Star

I (O’Leary for News) recall being told explicitly months ago that COVID-19 mainly killed old and/or immune-compromised people. It must be so, at least in Canada, where there have been very few deaths among healthy young people.

So why close schools, throw young people out of work, shut down and maybe destroy their businesses, make it nearly impossible for young families to move, let heart patients die because their surgeries are postponed…

Do we need Albert Einstein to figure this out?: We know where the people in long-term care are. They’re in licensed government-inspected or -run facilities. If we had simply moved to address the problems outlined above and protect them, instead of sucker-punching young people’s lives, we might have saved many seniors, prevented much loss and damage, and weathered the storm much better.

But then we’d need to ignore the pack howls from “science.”

Once we climb back out of the hole we have so furiously dug for ourselves, let’s start thinking more about ignoring the pack howls from “science.”

After all, how many more of them can we afford?

See also: But IS there such a thing as pandemic science? Or is it just panic science? The problems that Lenzer and Brownlee identify in their screed as wrong science are normal components of a panic in a crisis. What it all really shows is that we aren’t as much smarter than our forebears as we think.

Comments

There are two types of people in the world. Those who want to take care of themselves, and those who want big government to take care of them.
What about people who want other people to be taken care of? Where does altruism fit into this?Bob O'H_{May 14, 2020
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The world has become a very strange place. It seems that people in the west are more and more willing to sacrifice their hard won freedoms at the drop of a hat. China (a totalitarian state) locked down 100 million people, and we do the same thing. When there is no science behind doing so, it seems that we’re all part of a big experiment. And most people seem perfectly fine with it happening. We now live in a culture of fear it seems. and I don’t know how we arrived at this place. Social media? The 24 hour news cycle? a steady diet of zombie/outbreak films? Criminals in jail are being set free and law bidding citizen who only want to support their families are being locked up. It’s strange times. Churches are shuttered while liquor and Pot stores remain open. Not sure if linking off site is allowed but this is a short very interesting video There are two types of people in the world. Those who want to take care of themselves, and those who want big government to take care of them. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fMrLLWY_QaYreverendspy_{May 14, 2020
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Eighteen children in New Jersey have been hospitalized in recent days with an inflammatory syndrome believed related to coronavirus infection, state health officials said Wednesday. The newly recognized syndrome was first reported last week in New York, where 102 cases have been identified, with five deaths. Fourteen states are reported to have confirmed cases. https://www.northjersey.com/story/news/coronavirus/2020/05/13/nj-has-18-children-coronavirus-like-syndrome-like-kawasaki-disease/5184323002/rhampton7_{May 13, 2020
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The number of New York City kids sickened with the rare Kawasaki-like inflammatory disease potentially linked to the coronavirus has jumped to more than 80, Mayor Bill de Blasio said Wednesday as he warned that there are still “unanswered questions” surrounding the illness. “ This number has gone up consistently in recent days from a point where we had literally no acknowledgment of this problem because health care professionals weren’t seeing it even just a few weeks ago,” the mayor said. https://nypost.com/2020/05/13/82-nyc-kids-have-kawasaki-like-illness-linked-to-coronavirus/rhampton7_{May 13, 2020
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The city of Bergamo has the highest rate of infections and deaths in Italy, which makes the province of Bergamo a natural epidemiological setting where SARS-CoV-2 infections appeared earlier and were more evident. In the past month we found a 30-fold increased incidence of Kawasaki-like disease. Children diagnosed after the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic began showed evidence of immune response to the virus, were older, had a higher rate of cardiac involvement, and features of MAS. The SARS-CoV-2 epidemic was associated with high incidence of a severe form of Kawasaki disease. A similar outbreak of Kawasaki-like disease is expected in countries involved in the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic. Kawasaki disease is an acute and usually self-limiting vasculitis of the medium calibre vessels, which almost exclusively affects children.12, 13 In the acute phase of the disease, patients with Kawasaki disease might have haemodynamic instability, a condition known as Kawasaki disease shock syndrome (KDSS).14 Other patients with Kawasaki disease might fulfil the criteria of macrophage activation syndrome (MAS), resembling secondary haemophagocytic lymphohistiocytosis.15 The cause of Kawasaki disease remains unknown; however, earlier evidence16 suggests that an infectious agent triggers a cascade that causes the illness. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31103-X/fulltextrhampton7_{May 13, 2020
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Nearly 200 workers at the Central Valley Meat Co. have tested positive for COVID-19, a Kings County health official said Wednesday. The Hanford-based meat packer had just 32 cases on April 22 but the total surged to 182 on Wednesday. More cases are expected. Central Valley Meat Co. continues to operate. The company, headed by CEO Brian Coelho, employs 900 people in two locations, Hanford and Vernon in Los Angeles County. The plant runs five days a week, processing more than 1,500 cattle a day. https://www.fresnobee.com/news/business/agriculture/article242714526.htmlrhampton7_{May 13, 2020
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The county says local, state, and federal agencies, along with Villari Foods, are taking action to protect Villari team members, mitigate further spread of COVID-19, and protect the food supply chain following a recent outbreak at Villari Foods production facilities in Duplin County, NC. Viillari Foods sells pork, turkey and other meat products. The company’s response efforts continue to evolve as new guidance and supplies become available. Most recently, the company has implemented protective face shields for production areas where physical distancing is not possible." https://www.witn.com/content/news/Villari-Foods-processing-plant-in-Duplin-County-impacted-by-COVID-19-570453591.htmlrhampton7_{May 13, 2020
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Maruchan Virginia, Inc., a company that makes ramen noodles, confirms seven employees have tested positive for COVID-19. The employees have been quarantined at home, according to the company. Maruchan said it will continue to work with the CDC and health officials to ensure the safety and health of the workers. https://www.nbc12.com/2020/05/13/employees-test-positive-covid-chesterfield-ramen-noodle-plant/rhampton7_{May 13, 2020
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A Cargill protein plant in Chambly, Quebec, Canada, will temporarily close after 64 of its employees tested positive for the novel coronavirus (COVID-19). The number of positive cases is about 13% of the plant’s workforce, according to reports. The union representing workers at the plant, United Food and Commercial Worker... https://www.wattagnet.com/articles/40278-cargill-to-idle-protein-processing-plant-in-quebecrhampton7_{May 13, 2020
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Southwest District Health confirmed a cluster of positive COVID-19 cases in Washington County, ID on Wednesday. Several employees of Fry Foods, Inc. in Weiser, and some contacts outside the workplace are included in the cluster. “Fry Foods has closed their Weiser plant voluntarily,” said Douglas Arnold Wold, Fry Foods human resources manager, in a press release. “The plant will remain closed until the owners, director and Southwest District Health feel it is in the best interests of the plant’s employees and the community.” Fry Foods manufactures onion rings and other breaded and battered products for retail and food service, according to the company’s website. https://www.idahopress.com/coronavirus/weiser-food-plant-shuts-down-after-employees-test-positive-for-covid-19/article_9b563698-d09b-596a-b9ae-e3bc93edcdd8.htmlrhampton7_{May 13, 2020
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A Kansas plant that makes sausage has shut down after five employees tested positive for the coronavirus. The shutdown at the Johnsonville plant will affect about 230 employees. The doors closed on Wednesday, May 13. A company spokesperson said all employees will continue to get paid, and downtime will be used to implement even more aggressive safety protocols before reopening. Some new safety protocols include placing additional barriers between workstations where social distancing isn’t possible. The plant already had been requiring mandatory temperature check. https://fox4kc.com/news/sausage-plant-in-holton-kansas-shuts-down-after-workers-test-positive-for-coronavirus/rhampton7_{May 13, 2020
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Outbreaks of Covid-19 are occurring in slaughterhouses in multiple countries around the world, from the Americas to Europe and Oceania. Experts are now saying that beyond the immediate meat supply shock and supermarket shortages, this will have long-term implications for our current food supply chain, and signals the need to urgently shift to a more sustainable and crisis-resilient system. Other countries with even more consolidated meat supply chains are also battling outbreaks, including in Ireland, Australia, Germany, Spain, Brazil, Canada and the United Kingdom. In Germany, there have been over 300 confirmed cases of Covid-19 in a single meat processing plant in Birkenfeld. Meanwhile, 949 cases were reported in an Alberta meat packing house in Canada and an estimated 70 cases confirmed at Melbourne’s Cedar Meats. The reasons behind the outbreaks in meat plants all over the world are said to be related to overcrowded working conditions, workforces made up primarily of migrant workers or marginalised communities living in communal or cramped housing, and that many factories have remained open until infections are detected. https://www.greenqueen.com.hk/virus-outbreaks-in-slaughterhouses-globally-exposes-meat-industry-danger/rhampton7_{May 13, 2020
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At least 260 workers at Westfleisch's slaughterhouse in northwestern Germany have tested positive for COVID-19 in recent days, causing alarm at a time when the country is trying to slowly relax the restrictions that were imposed to curb the pandemic. The outbreak began shortly before Germany's federal and state governments agreed to trigger an "emergency brake" on relaxing restrictions when the number of new infections passed 50 per 100,000 inhabitants in a week — a threshold that Coesfeld has far surpassed. Authorities in North Rhine-Westphalia, where Coesfeld is located, have ordered all 20,000 workers in the meat industry tested for the new coronavirus and delayed the reopening of bars and restaurants in the region by another week. https://wjla.com/news/coronavirus/outbreak-at-german-slaughterhouse-reveals-migrants-plightrhampton7_{May 13, 2020
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Despite a growing coronavirus outbreak tied to the massive JBS Beef meatpacking plant north of Amarillo, the company has rejected the state's offer to test all of its employees. The state response team recently created to facilitate testing in the Texas Panhandle has checked thousands of workers at another nearby plant, but has not been allowed to test the roughly 3,000 employees at the JBS plant in Cactus, said Seth Christensen, a spokesperson for the Texas Division of Emergency Management. JBS Beef said it has "no plans" to allow targeted testing of its mostly immigrant workforce, the company said in a statement. At least one meatpacking plant employee has died after being infected and others remain hospitalized. Last week, Gov. Greg Abbott coupled his announcement about further reopening businesses in the state with the creation of surge response teams to address local outbreaks like those occurring in nursing homes, prisons and meatpacking plants. Officials have been tracking hundreds of cases tied to meatpacking plants in the Panhandle, which is now home to the highest infection rates in the state. https://www.kcbd.com/2020/05/13/texas-jbs-meatpacking-plant-rejects-state-effort-test-workers/rhampton7_{May 13, 2020
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More than 200 workers at a Tyson Fresh Meats plant in Madison, Nebraska, tested positive for the novel coronavirus after facility-wide testing from May 1 to May 4, the company said this week. The Madison plant employs 1,467 workers and contractors, meaning that about 14 percent of the workforce contracted the virus. Madison County had 265 coronavirus cases in total as of Monday. https://www.foxbusiness.com/money/tyson-foods-coronavirus-outbreak-madison-nebraskarhampton7_{May 13, 2020
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Marfin -
Bob o H – Please define under control for me , how many deaths per week is under control.
I don't think that's how it's defined. Number of new cases is more important, in two senses: (1) that they are low enough that contact tracing can be done with the resources available, and (2) R<1, so the number of new cases is declining.
You just dont get it do you at the moment in Ireland we have one million more people on the special COVID 19 payment from the government and 40% or more of the population out of work , so how long do you think this is sustainable.
Economically, I don't know, but certainly for more than a few months. Ireland can always borrow money (I'm sure the govt. would prefer not to, but this is an extreme situation).
If they ease lock down measures on 18th of May as planned and numbers spike again do we go the back to this severe lock down and have 50%- 60% unemployment for who knows how long.
If the alternative is more deaths, then perhaps. Hopefully your government is more sensible than its neighbour across the Irish Sea, and so will make sure this doesn't happen.
Protect the vulnerable , let the less vulnerable make decisions for themselves , and will people die yes they will ,
Unfortunately not everyone has the luxury of making the decision for themselves. For people who aren't financially secure, re-opening the economy will pretty much force them back to work. If the government does that before it's got the epidemic under control, it'll basically mean more deaths.
but you are ok with forcing a lock down but not ok with forcing a ban on alcohol, junk food, and obesity , which we all know is a multiple time bigger killer, if you were really interested in saving lives you would demand the same draconian measures but you dont why is that.
Because a lockdown is temporary. I'd prefer it if we didn't have to do this, but I understand why. It's about helping each other. If i get infected with SARS-COV-2, I don't want to infect other people. And I might be infected but not be symptomatic, so I will willingly work at home, not go out much and when I do, I'll maintain social distancing and wash/disinfect my hands regularly.Bob O'H_{May 13, 2020
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Meat packing plants, not only in US but in Canada and Australia (haven’t checked elsewhere, are huge hotspots. Why? People close together for hours at a time is how this virus spreads. What does that mean? Stadiums, theaters, airplanes, factories, etc. will need to practice social distancing, install barriers between people, enforce wearing face masks, et al. in order to open. If they can’t do this and they’re not deemed critical and given indemnity, then they will be closed until there is a vaccine.rhampton7_{May 13, 2020
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Thanks for the response, Jerry. I take that as 'there isn't one'. Andrewasauber_{May 13, 2020
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What Quality Assurance process is in place for testing, diagnosing, attribution, and reporting of COVID-related stuff?
Zelenko is currently trying to test for antibodies to determine what percent of his patients had C19. He has original test results on 300+ but diagnosed the rest clinically. So this is a form of ensuring positive diagnosis approaches for those assessed clinically. As it is about 20% of those tested, test positive. So are the 80% wasted? No it is probably a good sign but eventually everyone has to get or become immune somehow. Testing 300+ million is not currently feasible.jerry_{May 13, 2020
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And I have a question that I presume has no answer, but I'm going to throw it out there anyway, just to see if someone has any kind of response or knows where I might find something that addresses my question. What Quality Assurance process is in place for testing, diagnosing, attribution, and reporting of COVID-related stuff? Andrewasauber_{May 13, 2020
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"You just dont get it do you" I think Bob O'h has been incapable of adjusting his thinking using his own judgement for quite some time now. He's programmed. Andrewasauber_{May 13, 2020
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Bob o H - Please define under control for me , how many deaths per week is under control. You just dont get it do you at the moment in Ireland we have one million more people on the special COVID 19 payment from the government and 40% or more of the population out of work , so how long do you think this is sustainable. If they ease lock down measures on 18th of May as planned and numbers spike again do we go the back to this severe lock down and have 50%- 60% unemployment for who knows how long. To have taxes you need income , there will be no income unless people are allow go back to work, and back to some degree of normality. Protect the vulnerable , let the less vulnerable make decisions for themselves , and will people die yes they will , but you are ok with forcing a lock down but not ok with forcing a ban on alcohol, junk food, and obesity , which we all know is a multiple time bigger killer, if you were really interested in saving lives you would demand the same draconian measures but you dont why is that.Marfin_{May 13, 2020
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There is a new arrow in the C19 treatment quiver. It is NAC. For the last 10 days MedCram has been examining the blood clotting/cardiovascular issues with C19. It turns out NAC may be an important preventative or treatment for the disease.
the lock-down ends when the virus is under control. Yes, there will be flare-ups, but that’s what the test and trace system is needed for, so that they can be contained.
A treatment is not mentioned. There can be no effective return to normal till there are treatments that are widely used and accessible. Containing is not possible with this particular virus.
It’s why I don’t mind too much living in a country with taxes on alcohol and sugar
I believe you said you live in Norway which essentially has free electricity from hydro power plants in mountains and nearly a half million dollars per person from oil revenues. Not possible many places so not complaining about taxes on alcohol and sugar is sort of meaningless given this.
if the country is going to shut down, then clearly people need help, supporting people who lose their jobs and income.
Money is not wealth so printing it or taxing it to help others fails to realize what the issues are. Wealth is the total number of products and services produced and what has happened is that this has been cut drastically. If we are to share in the reduced wealth or products and services, then we will have a situation where by a large percentage of the population is not producing anything and living off of others. Most will tolerate this for a short time but not very long as those with jobs then find themselves without income as their services or products are deemed not necessary. Wealth does not grow on trees, it is produced by people laboring sometimes by producing technologies and machines that help produce wealth.jerry_{May 13, 2020
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BobRyan - Do you want some help with those goalposts? if the country is going to shut down, then clearly people need help, supporting people who lose their jobs and income. Nothing I said affects that. Marfin - the lock-down ends when the virus is under control. Yes, there will be flare-ups, but that's what the test and trace system is needed for, so that they can be contained. FWIW, yes I know there are other diseases that are problematic. It's why I don't mind too much living in a country with taxes on alcohol and sugar (and where the gyms are cheap). There are less draconian ways to encourage a healthier lifestyle than bans.Bob O'H_{May 13, 2020
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MF, you have a point. And I add, evidence continues to mount that HCQ cocktails are able to buy time for natural immunity to kick in. The deeper problem is the obvious decay of social cohesiveness and rise of deep polarisation. Faction politics has consequences, including frustrating doing what is sound. KFkairosfocus_{May 13, 2020
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Bob o H, As we have seen is South Korea there has been a cluster or clusters in night clubs as soon as they open up again , this tells us the virus is not going away, so a question when do we end the lock down in a month , 6 months, a year ,5 years , if the virus is still here in 5 years with no cure or vaccine will the lock down on the same level as now remain in place. Secondly once night clubs open surely I can decide if I wish to attend these or not, I can also decide if I want to let anyone get within 2 metres of me, I have to be somewhat accountable for my own health. Lastly this holier than thou attitude about life and not wanting anyone to die is a nonsense, alcohol, smoking, over eating and lack of exercise shortens the lives of 1000 times more people than COVID 19 so why don`t we big brother that situation and ban junk food , alcohol, make people exercise,make people who are overweight pay more tax as these people are a huge burden on the health system. See post at 36 its the only sensible solution.Marfin_{May 13, 2020
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Why do those who have died of COVID-19 matter more than those who have died from committing suicide as a result of hearing nothing but doom and gloom. That is what is callous, along with ignoring the increase in spousal and child abuse. Callous is telling people who have no idea if they will still be living in their houses and apartments a month from now they do not matter. Callous is telling people who do not know how they will feed their families this weekend that they do not matter. A small percentage of the population may get the virus, so we must shut down everything to kill off more people through other means. Everything being done to fight a minor virus which is not a threat to the vast majority of the population is weakening immune systems, which will cost greater lives. Bob O'H isn't a very good atheist. Evolutionists are supposed to believe viruses take their natural order in the world, but he is too afraid to admit the truth. You cannot be a true atheist and be afraid of a virus at the same time. The weak die and the strong will live on. That is the basis of Darwin.BobRyan_{May 13, 2020
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BTW, I read this article this morning, which lays out what the experts are saying we should be doing. Basically, the way to re-open the economy is to develop a public health infrastructure to contain the epidemic ("social distancing, contact tracing, testing, isolation, and treatment"). The piece was written by someone who (unlike any of us) has actually worked on containing epidemics.Bob O'H_{May 13, 2020
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But if young people are at low risk of dying anyway, the damage created to them as a group by shutting down the economy makes no sense.
That's pretty callous towards those who have died, or who have survived after having to go to intensive care. There are also indications that there might be long-term effects of a serious case. Oh, and letting the epidemic run wild will kill more people, simply because it will overload the health system. It also ignores the problem that you can't totally isolate those at greater risk of a serious case, so increasing the prevalence in the general population will also increase contacts between people with the virus and those who are more at risk. The strategy you're suggesting is the one the UK took at the start of the epidemic, based on expert advice. They changed course when they realised it wasn't going to work.Bob O'H_{May 13, 2020
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Most people, as in 75-80% will never contract COVID-19. It is not as contagious as influenza. Naval vessels who have had outbreaks should have had it spread to everyone, or close to everyone, yet it did not happen. Those same ships, when an influenza outbreaks occurs, has a greater percentage of people who contract influenza. The Diamond Princess had a total of 9 deaths. A US naval ship had 1 sailor die. The person who came up with the projections people are using as gospel today, resigned in disgrace for getting things as wrong as he did. His projections are the sole reason the economy has been crippled at a global level. People who are otherwise health have been told they will die if they contract it and live in fear. We know that healthy people do not have to worry about getting COVID-19, since it will not kill healthy people. People in their 80s are recovering from COVID-19. It is not a death sentence to most people who contract it, which is a small percentage of the population to begin with. Projections and reality are two very different things.BobRyan_{May 12, 2020
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