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Is Evolution Repeatable?

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One of our commenters here, trrll, made the oft-cited claim that evolution is unrepeatable. I asked what evidence there is of this and he made some unsubstantiated claims. Because of the frequency of such claims here I asked that he back them up before he comments here again. As of now the result of my request is the sound of crickets chirping. To be fair, perhaps trrll didn’t see my last response. If not he’s sure to see this.

I posted a paper on the sidebar back in January written by Jean Staune titled Non Darwinian Evolution. Professor Dembski had originally linked to it as an article but I thought it important enough to make a permanent link to it on the sidebar. It’s a survey of evolutionary scientists in Europe who reject both creationism and the Darwinian mechanism of chance & necessity. Among those non-creationist dissenters from Darwinism are several who say that evolution is repeatable i.e. that if it happened again here or elsewhere it would follow the same course. An inescapable conclusion of Darwinian evolution is that evolution would NOT repeat itself due to being driven by random mutation and there being so many possible paths that a random walk could take.
A small excerpt:

Repeatabilty of Evolution

One of the fundamental predictions which rises from Darwinian theory is the impossibility that evolution can reach the same goal twice. Authors as different as Richard Dawkins or Stephen Jay Gould agree on this point: the role of contingency is central in the evolutionary process (the ‘bullet’ is always shot randomly) and there are so many possible targets (”the range of possibilities is almost infinite”), that it is unthinkable that the process of evolution, if it really rests on the Darwinians mechanisms, can produce the same result twice. In theory, if one received an image coming from another planet, the simple presence of a cat or a dog would be enough to disprove Darwinism. However for the three authors whom we gather in this school, evolution must more or less follow identical paths in different places.

I encourage everyone to read the paper. One might also be well served to compare and contrast these non-Darwinian schools of thought with Doctor Davison’s Prescribed Evolutionary Hypothesis, also on the sidebar. I think you’ll find that Davison’s conclusions are largely compatible with some of the European thinking (although I might wrong on that and I’d like Doctor Davison to chime in on that score if he would take the time to review Staune’s paper).

I’ll close this with another small excerpt from Staune:

What about “ Intelligent Design ”?

If Intelligent Design theorists recognize that all living beings have a common ancestor, Intelligent Design is nothing more than a particular school of thought of non-Darwinian evolutionist biology of the type: “ non random macro mutation ” similar to Schutzenberger, Denton and Chauvin’s ideas. But more extreme than them. Non-Darwinians of this sort say that we need to include something able to coordinate or channel the macro mutations (like meteorologists need a more global concept on Pluto which obliges them revisit all their world views but do not include the direct intervention of a designer) to really understand how evolution works. These scientists will not claim that this is evidence of a Creator even if it is fully compatible with such a concept.

If Intelligent Design rejects the idea of common ancestry, or even if, Intelligent Design is “ agnostic ” concerning this idea, it would be a catastrophe for any sort of non-Darwinian way of thinking. Recent history fully demonstrates that if you deny the existence of common ancestry, the concluding result of your action will be the reenforcement of Darwinism. The existence of common ancestry is a thing of the past and not of the present. Evolution cannot be established as much as for example, the fact that the Earth revolves around the Sun but evolution is as well established as possible for a phenomenon that belongs to the past. To deny it is to re-enforce Darwinism and to discredit the non-Darwinian school of thought.

Comments
DaveScot wrote
Alan You surprise me in saying that all past events in evolution have a probability of one, meaning it could have happened no other way. This is in stark contrast to Darwinian evolutionary theory.
I was asking how can any past event have a probability of its occurrence of other than one. As bFast said, what happened happened, there is no question of that. "Sensitivity to initial conditions" suggests that a replay of events may produce a very different outcome, and it is practically impossible to replay an event such as a coin toss and keep getting heads. What is the conflict with evolutionary theory?Alan Fox
September 19, 2006
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Alan You surprise me in saying that all past events in evolution have a probability of one, meaning it could have happened no other way. This is in stark contrast to Darwinian evolutionary theory. Note to trrll: I said I wasn't interested in computer simulations unless the results they obtain can be confirmed in a laboratory. I asked you for links to the experimental results you claim prove evolution is unrepeatable not more empty claims. Here is an example of a link that disputes your claim (just in case you don't know what a link is or how to defend a claim): http://www.nsf.gov/news/frontiers_archive/11-96/11specie.jsp
Recreating a Species: Evolution Turns Predictable November 1996 If a daisy were given another chance at evolution, would it still look like a daisy? Would a rose still smell like a rose? Scientists have long wondered how much of a role chance plays in evolution, and the answer, at least for one species of sunflower, is not much. If the 100,000-year-old species developed all over again, it would still be the same. This was a surprising finding since much of evolutionary theory suggests that chance is a significant player in speciation. The research, done by NSF-funded Loren Rieseberg, an evolutionary biologist at Indiana University in Bloomington, and his colleagues, was published in the journal, Science. Rieseberg focused on the anomalous sunflower or Helianthus anomalus because it is a naturally occurring hybrid. It developed from the interbreeding of two other sunflowers: the common sunflower (Helianthus annuus) and the petioled sunflower (Helianthus petiolaris). The researchers assumed they could interbreed the two parent species and get another flower, but they did not know if they could still get the anomalous sunflower, or if a totally new species would develop after a few generations. In all three trials, the anomalous sunflower reappeared within four generations. Not only did the flowers look like their counterparts found in the Great Basin desert, DNA testing showed that they were almost identical. "I was pretty astonished," Rieseberg told The New York Times. "I expected to see some similarities, some concordance, but I didn't expect to see anything like this. I think we'll find that much more about evolution is repeatable and predictable."
Defend, concede, or buzz off. Pick one.DaveScot
September 19, 2006
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bFast wrote
What happened happened, there is no question of that.
So, you agree with "All past events that have occurred have, well, occurred, thus having a probability of one."
The question being asked is the question of contingency — if the tape were rewound, and replayed, not exactly the same, but similar, would the results be “very similar” or “very different”?
Chaos theory suggests that even virtually identical conditions can produce wildly different results. The weather and the difficulty of forecasting accurately being a prime example.Alan Fox
September 19, 2006
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“But we are here, Ekstasis, with a probability of one, no?” was not a Sunday school answer, that was me asking a question. Whilst you can investigate a past event with an unknown cause and postulate the liklihood of various causes based on experience or other inferences, particular events must have happened due to specific causes, so assigning probabilities can't have any meaning in the context of past events, as far as I can see.Alan Fox
September 19, 2006
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Dr. Davison, I hardly consider you to be in the "contingency camp". I am referring rather to comments such as, "But we are here, Ekstasis, with a probability of one, no?"bFast
September 19, 2006
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Carlos: "If I ask you to pick out a seven and/or a hearts, the probability is 4/52 + 13/52, or 17/52 — almost 33%." Forgive my OCD, but one card is both a seven and a heart, and you have counted it twice. You have to subtract 1 / 52. But your argument is sound.Tom English
September 19, 2006
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bfast Sorry but I dont care to have my comments described as "Sunday School answers." I am sure you will understand. "A past evolution is undeniable, a present evolution undemonstrable." John A. DavisonJohn A. Davison
September 19, 2006
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This thread has lost its center. What happened happened, there is no question of that. The question being asked is the question of contingency -- if the tape were rewound, and replayed, not exactly the same, but similar, would the results be "very similar" or "very different"? Lets put some meat on the above question. We have an earth. It has a specific place in the cosmos, a sun of a specific size, etc. It is "randomly" bombarded by meteors and such. If we were to find a planet in another system of similar size and chemistry, floating around a star of similar size and chemistry, located similarly in a similar galaxy. If this planet were also randomly being bombarded by meteors. If we were to find that this planet had life on it, and if the life on it had been around about as long as life on earth has been, what would that life be like? Would it be much like us, or would it be wildly different? If "contingency" rules, we should find that this other world has a very different type of life. It may not have DNA. It may not use the protein molecule. It may not stand about two meters tall, and have tamed fire. However, if "law" rules, we should find that this other world has many more similarities than differences. We should find the DNA molecule or something very much like it. If we find that the mapping is somewhat different between DNA and protein, this would not be surprizing to a "law" perspective, however, we should find a triplet mapping to an amino acid. If we find that this other world has developed pentadactyl quadrupeds, then law would absolutely replace contingency as the best description of the situation. Now the simple question, does evidence such as the evidence from convergence already support the conclusion that something very much like us is the natural result of "law"? Ie, do we have multiple examples of evolution through multiple evolutionary pathways. Or must we conclude that, because we have only one example of evolution, we have no reason to believe that anything other than contingency is at play? Gentlement in the contingency camp, it is time for you to quit providing the "sundayschool answers" as provided by your prophets, and engage in a thoughtful discussion of the challenge that convergence delivers to the view of contingency.bFast
September 19, 2006
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Sorry, this is to complete last phrase: Complex life appears a very small subset s of a huge seaqrch space S, so that the problem isn’t that some specific life has probability much less than UPB to occur but that ANY life has probability much less than UPB to occur at all.kairos
September 19, 2006
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#9 Carlos: "For all we know, the probability of the formation of life on a planet with a mass 0.5 to 10 times that of the Earth, and a radius 0.8 to 2.2 times that of the Earth, with a large amount of liquid water, orbiting a G-class star fairly early in its life-cycle, could be extremely high. And there’s the key: for all we know. It could be extremely high, or it could be extremely low. We have, at present, no way of knowing one way or the other." I don't think so because for all we know (SETI and Fermi's paradox docent) we are the only intelligent civilization in the whole observable universe so the only reasonable hypotesis that ais consistent with all that we know is that life prabability is exceedingly small and that life did originate one and only one time in the universe. This fact does not support the plausibility that this did happen by pure chance and instead is a powerful argument for reasonably infer design as the best explanation. "But what we cannot do is infer, from the absurdly low probability of everything having happened exactly as it did, that the probability of something like this having happened in some other way. That’s true when it come to the sacking of Rome, and it’s true when it comes to the history of life, whether on Earth or some other planet." But it is not true in our case for, to the best of our knowledge, ONLY one civilization does observe the universe. This FAACT does strongly support the basic intuition that abiogenesis and life evolution are quite impossible by RM+NS. In this sense your last observation is completely unsupported. Complex life appears a very small subset s of a huge seaqrch space S, so that the problem isn't that some specific life has probability kairos
September 19, 2006
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I have decided Alan Fox doesn't exist which is why I will not respond to anything he says here or elsewhere. His sole purpose has always been to discredit me. I will let others deal with him. But will they? "A past evolution is undeniable, a present evolution undemonstrable." John A. DavisonJohn A. Davison
September 19, 2006
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Alan, You'd have to presume your conclusion for your argument to mean anything.Charlie
September 19, 2006
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Carlos, If it is, as you believe, that we just don't know whether the probability of an event is very high or very low can it be considered more rational or more scientific to choose to operate under one assumption rather than the other?Charlie
September 19, 2006
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Alan, As one philisopher said:: Say you were scheduled to meet your death by firing squad of 10 soldiers, and they all fired their rifles in your direction, and you were not killed or even hit by a bullet. Sure, you might say, "golly gee, I guess if I was dead I would not be here to ask any questions, so the probability of not being hit must have been one, ha ha!" But more likely you certainly would begin looking for explanations of why you were still alive!!Ekstasis
September 19, 2006
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given the growing body of knowledge pointing to incredibly specific requirements for life to have begun and differentiated as we observe has happened, we can probably conclude that, even if there are multiple possible pathways to any sort of complex life existing, their sum of probabilities very likely never reaches the point of feasibility.
Hold on a minute here. You yourself say, "as we observe has happened." Now, could things have happened in a different but similar way? Could life have evolved a million, or a billion, years later? What if animals had never made it past the Edicaran fauna? Or if bilateral metazoans had evolved, but just never made it to land? etc. etc. The probability of life's history having unfolded precisely as it did could be very low, but that tells us nothing about the probability of something else very similar, or very different. If I ask you to pick out the seven of hearts from a deck, the probability of your doing so is 1/52, or just under 2%. If I ask you to pick out a seven and/or a hearts, the probability is 4/52 + 13/52, or 17/52 -- almost 33%. (My math fu is very weak, so I'm probably getting this wrong.) And if I ask you to pick out any card at all, the probability of your doing so is 100%. In this case, we know how to calculate the relevant probabilities. But in the case of the history of life, we simply don't know how to calculate the various possibilities, the various directions that things may have gone in one direction or another. But intelligent design theory assumes that we can calculate these probabilities, and do so with enough precision that we can be reasonably confident that an Intelligence must have been involved. I'm sorry, but I just don't see it. What am I missing?Carlos
September 19, 2006
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Alan Fox, In regards to "Please excuse a naive question (I’m not a mathematician, although I did play one once in a Murder-Mystery evening), but how can probability have any relevance to anything other than a future event? All past events that have occurred have, well, occurred, thus having a probability of one." It seems to me that one of the foundations of forensic science is to go back and evaluate the probability or likelihood of whether a past event is considered either random or "normal" as defined by what is expected, or has some agent caused or manipulated the event. So, say a un-manipulated series of events should display a bell curved statistical result, but it does not, than the evaluators know to look for another factor.Ekstasis
September 19, 2006
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But we are here, Ekstasis, with a probability of one, no? The events that led to us being here must have happened, no matter how improbable they seem now. We just don't know what all those events were.Alan Fox
September 19, 2006
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Carlos, In regards to your statement "The confusion is between the probablility of something’s happening exactly as it did and the probability of it’s happening at all." True, the probability of any specific pathway is infinitesmally small. So, given enough possible pathways, the probability grows to the point of feasibility. But, given the growing body of knowledge pointing to incredibly specific requirements for life to have begun and differentiated as we observe has happened, we can probably conclude that, even if there are multiple possible pathways to any sort of complex life existing, their sum of probabilities very likely never reaches the point of feasibility.Ekstasis
September 19, 2006
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Schindewolf published his "Basic Questions in Paleontology" in 1950. There have been a few scientific developments since then. Carlos wrote:
Likewise, consider the probability of “Rome’s being sacked by the Visigoths in 410 AD”. Is that greater or lesser than the probability of “Rome’s being sacked by the Visigoths in 420 AD or 400 AD”? I have no clue how to answer that question, though I feel some confidence in saying that the probability of “Rome’s being sacked by some tribe sometime in the fifth century” is larger than the probability of “”Rome’s being sacked by the Visigoths in 410.” Does it follow that the event of lower probability must have been guided by some Intelligence, other than the particular actions of particular intelligent humans?
Please excuse a naive question (I'm not a mathematician, although I did play one once in a Murder-Mystery evening), but how can probability have any relevance to anything other than a future event? All past events that have occurred have, well, occurred, thus having a probability of one.Alan Fox
September 19, 2006
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I grow tired of offering my "take" on certain evolutionary matters as it is typically ignored or worse, often much worse. Instead I will present Otto Schindewolf's "take" with the understanding that I am in complete agreememt with it. "Evolution, a unique, historical course of events that TOOK PLACE IN THE PAST, is not repeatable experimentally and cannot be investigated in that way......The ONLY factors that are known and accessible to experimentation are some that, as far as can be anticipated, can lead to the differentiation of races." Basic Questions in Paleontology, page 311, my emphasis. Incidentally, his statement remains in complete accord with the implications of the Prescribed Evolutionary Hypothesis. I do think it may prove possible one day to reconstruct our ancestors step by step when the infrastructure of our chromosomes becomes subject to complete experimental manipulation. However I do not believe there will ever be produced a new and superior member of the genus Homo. We are the end of the evolutionary scenario and will be lucky to last much longer if you ask me so please don't ask. A past evolution is undeniable, a present evolution undemonstrable." John A. DavisonJohn A. Davison
September 19, 2006
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Yet, the more we learn, the more extremely improbable the whole thing appears, so only by perfect manipulation can it have happened. There's a confusion at work here, I fear. The confusion is between the probablility of something's happening exactly as it did and the probability of it's happening at all. And this depends on how one characterizes the event in question. There was a very small probability that someone with the exact genetic make-up as myself would come into existence, whereas the probability was much greater of someone coming into existence who would have half of my mother's genetic material and half of my father's genetic material. Likewise, consider the probability of "Rome's being sacked by the Visigoths in 410 AD". Is that greater or lesser than the probability of "Rome's being sacked by the Visigoths in 420 AD or 400 AD"? I have no clue how to answer that question, though I feel some confidence in saying that the probability of "Rome's being sacked by some tribe sometime in the fifth century" is larger than the probability of ""Rome's being sacked by the Visigoths in 410." Does it follow that the event of lower probability must have been guided by some Intelligence, other than the particular actions of particular intelligent humans? For all we know, the probability of the formation of life on a planet with a mass 0.5 to 10 times that of the Earth, and a radius 0.8 to 2.2 times that of the Earth, with a large amount of liquid water, orbiting a G-class star fairly early in its life-cycle, could be extremely high. And there's the key: for all we know. It could be extremely high, or it could be extremely low. We have, at present, no way of knowing one way or the other. What we can know is the probability of the history of life as having unfolded exactly as it did, and we can gauge that that probability is absurdly, ridiculously low. (Particularly if we specify the case to the actual state of affairs at this very minute -- what is the probability that a descendent of that first cell -- namely, me -- would oversleep and not have time for a proper breakfast, and therefore have to go home for an early lunch, accidentally let my cat out of the apartment, pick him up to carry him back in, forget that I'm wearing a black shirt, and have to go through two more lectures covered in cat fur? What's the probability of that happening? Fuggedaboutit!) But what we cannot do is infer, from the absurdly low probability of everything having happened exactly as it did, that the probability of something like this having happened in some other way. That's true when it come to the sacking of Rome, and it's true when it comes to the history of life, whether on Earth or some other planet.Carlos
September 19, 2006
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Ops, posting before thinking. Contingency didn't happen, therefore we ask "how?"bFast
September 19, 2006
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Ekstasis, thanks for the feedback. I wonder, however, about your statement, "it seems to remove one problem — the need to answer the ID critics question — “ok, if you are so smart, when and where and how did the designing agency act?”" This remains to be the scientific question of ID. If we can conclude that contingency does not explain life as we know it, we still end up with the curiosity -- just law or agency also. Certainly law is a prime factor in the design of the universe. But did the designer also act with agency? If "law" then we should be able to discover the precise conditions that permit abiogenesis. We certainly have not done so. If law, then we should be able to discover the laws that negotiate the results that we see. We have not discovered laws that account for this. I do not believe that our short list of laws -- random mutation + natural selection -- in any way accounts for a non-contingent result. The laws of nature have proven to be findable. It would reasonably seem that the designer intended us to discover these laws. The designer certainly did not go out of his/her/its/their way to hide the laws. But the designer may have acted with agency also. If the designer acted with agency, that too should be discoverable. As you can see, my view of ID is not a science stopping view as the neo-darwinists have claimed, but a science starting view. ID brings out so many questions, questions that are reasonably answerable via the scientific process of discovery. Contingency didn't happen, therefore we ask "why?"bFast
September 19, 2006
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bFast, Great point. Certainly the laws of nature appear to be fine tuned to allow even the possibility of life to exist. But this takes it much further, the laws of nature must be so tuned as to have started and created life, taking it down an extremely narrow pathway. One misstep, and boom, no life. Unless multiple pathways exist. Yet, the more we learn, the more extremely impprobable the whole thing appears, so only by perfect manipulation can it have happened. Perfect manipulation, this is the very definition of design (or execution of the design). And yet, it seems to remove one problem -- the need to answer the ID critics question -- "ok, if you are so smart, when and where and how did the designing agency act?" Oh yes, the question is now solved, the designing agent acted through the perfect tuning of the laws of nature, and any "initial" state that was needed. The dice was rolled in such a perfect manner that the outcome was predetermined in what appears to be a completely random fashion. Ah, how sweet it is!!Ekstasis
September 19, 2006
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Dave, Thanks for bringing this paper up again. The article paints a good picture of where bio ID needs to go. I look forward to JAD's take on it. Karl, I don't think convergent evolution can be dismissed as easily as you make out. For a start it is not always due to similar ecological niches - take the mammalian camera eye vs an octopus eye for example. Second, it is pervasive on many levels suggesting some sort of underlying regularity. So while I would agree with you that evolution is in some way repeatable, the Darwinian version is not a good explanation.antg
September 19, 2006
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DaveScot Said: "An inescapable conclusion of Darwinian evolution is that evolution would NOT repeat itself due to being driven by random mutation and there being so many possible paths that a random walk could take." Conway Morris, who developed most of the fossil evidence pertaining to the Burgess Shale upon which Gould drew in his book "Wonderful Life," recently (in 2004) penned "Life's Solution: Inevitable Humans in a Lonely Universe." Morris embraces natural selection, and in the opening pages of his book explicitly excluded intelligent design from consideration. Yet he also argued that evolution is far from a random walk, in that the possible working solutions to survival within various ecological niches by means of specific strategies may be quite constrained. Hence natural selection again and again finds astonishingly convergent solutions to these problems. He concludes his book by arguing that something like human beings may well have been inevitable. I feel there are some problems with his argument. Nevertheless the depth of his scholarship and research regarding convergence in evolution is astonishing - and his central thesis certainly stands as a counter example to the statement above. Additionally, the differences he documents between his conclusions and those of Gould exemplify the genuine controversies that have arises within scientific evolutionary biology - as they do within any genuine science. Highly recommended.Reciprocating Bill
September 19, 2006
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The European view, if I understand it correctly, is the "by law" view. It presents an interesting perspective. If all that ever was designed was a series of very precisely tuned parameters which balanced the big bang, parameters that include such interesting phenomenon as the precise relationship between the atoms on the periodic table, if that precise set of parameters inevitably leads to, well, us, then we are designed. If we are the product of a designer that completed the design work 16 billion years ago, or if we are the product of a designer that acted with agency all the way through the process is merely an academic question. We still remain to be designed. Either contingency -- repetition would not happen -- or design. The parallels between the placentals and the marsupials produces a strong case, as I see it, in opposition to contingency. I have been toying with another metaphore for randomness. Outside my window they are pouring the foundation for a new building. As they pour the cement, they stick a vibrator into it. The vibrator induces, well, randomness into the mix. Yet the designers of the building intended that component of randomness not because they wanted a random building, but because they knew that the cause of that randomness would be cement without any air pockets. If human designers can harness randomness in this way, I see no difficulty in viewing a the designer of the universe implementing such a technology. Bruce's algorithm: if not contingency then designer.bFast
September 19, 2006
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Or the more rational answer- that both are the result of design and thus show the similar designs. How a random process without goal or purpose could come up with the same "solution" all over the place is nonsense to me. If we cannot predict an outcome, and there are literally hundreds of trillions of different outcomes- why do we constantly see the same outcome? Let's face it- if RM+NS is this powerful to "solve" problems this well, we need to find a way to use it to figure out the lottery numbers! I say "solution" in quotes, because, of course, NDE claims no purpose at all outside of 'creature A gets an accidental mutation and happens to live longer than creature B without the mutation...after long periods of time, A passes the mutation on and it makes its way into the entire species.' Trillions of accidents that somehow result in the same result over and over and over again? Sounds like a fairytale more than anything else. So, there's no "selection" ar all, there's no solution either. There aren't even any "problems" to solve. The lack of all of these things make the fairytale even more absurd.JasonTheGreek
September 19, 2006
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Staune writes:
...it is unthinkable that the process of evolution, if it really rests on the Darwinians mechanisms, can produce the same result twice.
Staune is correct if, by "the same result", he means identical genomes, identical proteins, identical developmental pathways, etc. However, Darwinism does not preclude the re-evolution of similar organisms for similar ecological niches. We can't rerun the history of life, of course, but nature did run an interesting experiment for us: the parallel evolution of marsupial and placental mammals. The striking morphological resemblance between marsupials and placentals occupying similar ecological niches is evidence that there is some repeatability to evolution, at least at the functional level.Karl Pfluger
September 19, 2006
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