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Mathematics and the Creative Powers of the Blind Watchmaker

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The burden of proof rests with BW proponents, not ID proponents.

For those with inquisitive minds, I suggest checking out David Berlinski’s comments here, starting at 41 minutes. As everyone with any sense knows, David Berlinski — a mindless, born-again, Christian religious fanatic — is masquerading as a secular Jewish mathematician while attempting to impose a theocracy and destroy the entire foundation of modern science.

I have, on several occasions at UD, proposed that simple mathematical analysis of the available probabilistic resources — even making unrealistically optimistic probabilistic assumptions at every turn — renders totally absurd the claim that the mechanism of random errors filtered by natural selection can account for what we find in living systems beyond the utterly trivial.

It took 10^20 reproductive events for malaria to evolve resistance to chloroquine with two randomly produced genetic variations (check out Michael Behe’s The Edge of Evolution). This is the empirical evidence concerning the creative powers of the Blind Watchmaker. Assuming that humans evolved from a primitive simian-like ancestor three million years ago, and assuming an unrealistically optimistic generation period of 10 years, and assuming an unrealistically optimistic average number of individuals at 10^7, we have 3×10^12 reproductive events for analogous Darwinian mechanisms to turn Lucy into Lucille Ball. That means that with 33 million times fewer random opportunities than malaria had to come up with two point mutations (that produced no new biological machinery or information), Darwinian mechanisms supposedly miraculously engineered modern humans from a pre-chimpanzee ancestor.

This is simply an absurd proposition on its face, completely unsupported by evidence or even the most trivial analytical or probabilistic scrutiny.

This is why, as David Berlinski comments, he and his mathematician friends consider Darwinism to be “nutty.”

Comments
Cassandra come on get real. Step back away a little from the rhetoric of Matzke and tell me exactly what you really have to show for far more replication/mutation events than have happened since the alleged mammalian from reptiles split 100 million years ago? You got a bug that is still a bug, that looks exactly the same under the microscope as the bug did years ago. Yet you expect me to swallow that a Ludwig Beethoven came from a Lizard Behemoth with far less mutational events?!? : Frankly Cassandra I find the real mystery to be,,"why do you not you yourself, as well as other evolutionists, approach this topic with even a little more skepticism than you are willing to grant?" Now if I could answer that mystery I think that would be something.bornagain77
May 17, 2010
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bornagain77 (5),
I don’t know Cassandra, maybe Nick has whispered somewhere that he was wrong, but as for myself, I take anything that man says with a grain of salt.
Fortunately, we don't need to assess his statements about chloroquine resistance solely on ad hominem arguments; we have his actual logic and evidence to discuss. From the referenced comment, do you have any response to those? Another excellent and detailed discussion of the issues with Behe's math is here: http://www.sunclipse.org/?p=133 I'm interested in your thoughts on the argument presented there.Cassandra
May 17, 2010
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Kyrilluk: Do you really have any illusions about these mutations you cite being new genes: Could Chance Arrange the Code for (Just) One Gene? "our minds cannot grasp such an extremely small probability as that involved in the accidental arranging of even one gene (10^-236)." http://www.creationsafaris.com/epoi_c10.htm Or even being truly beneficial mutations? Inside the Human Genome: A Case for Non-Intelligent Design - Pg. 57 By John C. Avise Excerpt: "Another compilation of gene lesions responsible for inherited diseases is the web-based Human Gene Mutation Database (HGMD). Recent versions of HGMD describe more than 75,000 different disease causing mutations identified to date in Homo-sapiens." I went to the mutation database website cited by John Avise and found: HGMD®: Now celebrating our 100,000 mutation milestone! http://www.biobase-international.com/pages/index.php?id=hgmddatabase I really question their use of the word "celebrating". (Of Note: The number for Mendelian Genetic Disorders is quoted to be over 6000 by geneticist John Sanford in 2010) "Mutations" by Dr. Gary Parker Excerpt: human beings are now subject to over 3500 mutational disorders. (this 3500 figure is cited from the late 1980's) http://www.answersingenesis.org/home/area/cfol/ch2-mutations.asp Human Evolution or Human Genetic Entropy? - Dr. John Sanford - video http://www.metacafe.com/w/4585582 This following study confirmed the "detrimental" mutation rate for humans per generation, of 100 to 300, estimated by John Sanford in his book "Genetic Entropy" in 2005: Human mutation rate revealed: August 2009 Every time human DNA is passed from one generation to the next it accumulates 100–200 new mutations, according to a DNA-sequencing analysis of the Y chromosome. (Of note: this number is derived after "compensatory mutations") http://www.nature.com/news/2009/090827/full/news.2009.864.html This mutation rate of 100 to 200 is far greater than even what evolutionists agree is an acceptable mutation rate for an organism: Beyond A 'Speed Limit' On Mutations, Species Risk Extinction Excerpt: Shakhnovich's group found that for most organisms, including viruses and bacteria, an organism's rate of genome mutation must stay below 6 mutations per genome per generation to prevent the accumulation of too many potentially lethal changes in genetic material. http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/10/071001172753.htm Contamination of the genome by very slightly deleterious mutations: why have we not died 100 times over? Kondrashov A.S. http://www.ingentaconnect.com/content/ap/jt/1995/00000175/00000004/art00167bornagain77
May 17, 2010
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Cassandra at 1, The one main thing that is suspect in your citation of Nick Matzke as a authority in this matter is Nick Matzke's integrity to unbiased science since he has stubbornly refused to even admit that the Type Three Secretory System to Flagellum narrative he championed in peer-review was decisively refuted: Nick Matzke’s TTSS to Flagellum Evolutionary Narrative Refuted https://uncommondescent.com/intelligent-design/nick-matzkes-ttss-to-flagellum-evolutionary-narrative-refuted/ The flagellum has steadfastly resisted all attempts to elucidate its plausible origination by Darwinian processes, much less has anyone ever actually evolved a flagellum from scratch in the laboratory; Genetic Entropy Refutation of Nick Matzke's TTSS (type III secretion system) to Flagellum Evolutionary Narrative: Excerpt: Comparative genomic analysis show that flagellar genes have been differentially lost in endosymbiotic bacteria of insects. Only proteins involved in protein export within the flagella assembly pathway (type III secretion system and the basal-body) have been kept... http://mbe.oxfordjournals.org/cgi/content/abstract/msn153v1 But even before genetic analysis it was known that,,,, "One fact in favour of the flagellum-first view is that bacteria would have needed propulsion before they needed T3SSs, which are used to attack cells that evolved later than bacteria. Also, flagella are found in a more diverse range of bacterial species than T3SSs. ‘The most parsimonious explanation is that the T3SS arose later," Howard Ochman - Biochemist - New Scientist (Feb 16, 2008) Bacterial Flagellum - A Sheer Wonder Of Intelligent Design - video http://www.metacafe.com/watch/3994630 Biologist Howard Berg at Harvard calls the Bacterial Flagellum “the most efficient machine in the universe." "There are no detailed Darwinian accounts for the evolution of any fundamental biochemical or cellular system only a variety of wishful speculations. It is remarkable that Darwinism is accepted as a satisfactory explanation of such a vast subject." James Shapiro - Molecular Biologist Michael Behe on Falsifying Intelligent Design - video http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N8jXXJN4o_A I don't know Cassandra, maybe Nick has whispered somewhere that he was wrong, but as for myself, I take anything that man says with a grain of salt. Richard Dawkins’ The Greatest Show on Earth Shies Away from Intelligent Design but Unwittingly Vindicates Michael Behe - Oct. 2009 Excerpt: The rarity of chloroquine resistance is not in question. In fact, Behe’s statistic that it occurs only once in every 10^20 cases was derived from public health statistical data, published by an authority in the Journal of Clinical Investigation. The extreme rareness of chloroquine resistance is not a negotiable data point; it is an observed fact. http://www.evolutionnews.org/2009/10/richard_dawkins_the_greatest_s.html Waiting Longer for Two Mutations, Part 5 - Michael Behe Excerpt:The final conceptual error that Durrett and Schmidt commit is the gratuitous multiplication of probabilistic resources.,,, the appearance of a particular (beneficial) double mutation in humans would have an expected time of appearance of 216 million years, http://behe.uncommondescent.com/2009/03/waiting-longer-for-two-mutations-part-5/bornagain77
May 17, 2010
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Kyrilluk, Are you really unable to see the question-begging nature of your response? ==== Regardless of the nature of your response, we’re not really talking about 10 novel genes, but rather about mutations of (perhaps) 10 existing genes. Knowing nothing more than what is said in the article, I can easily theoretically explain the phenomenon as being due to “broken genes” … you know, something conceptually no different from sickle-cell anemia providing some resistance to malaria. So, theorizing that the Tibetan’s ability to thrive in the low-oxygen environment of the Himalayas is due to a mutation (or mutations) which had damaged one or more of their genes, I asked, “Do Tibetans experience health-issues when they move to low (high-oxygen) elevations?” Now, trying to research a question like that via Google is not easy, but I did (almost immediately) come across this page, on which concern is expressed for the health of an elderly Tibetan man precisely because he is no longer dwelling at the high elevations to which he is adapted. Now, I know that that one casual anecdote is not a medical answer to the question, and you are free to disregard it. Still, you really ought to learn to be much more skeptical of anything Darwinists assert.Ilion
May 17, 2010
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Hum...But then how do you explain the fact that the people of Tibetan Highlands have evolved 10 unique oxygen-processing genes in a mere couple of thousand years? http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/05/100513143453.htm?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:+sciencedaily+(ScienceDaily:+Latest+Science+News)Kyrilluk
May 17, 2010
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But, don't you know? By the Magick of Many Orders of Magnitude (aka, the Magick of Really Big and Really Small Numbers) successive subtractions generate Positive Outcomes?Ilion
May 16, 2010
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The burden of proof rests with BW proponents, not ID proponents.
Logically, the burden of proof rests with whomever is making the positive claim. When evolutionary biologists make claims about particular mechanisms, they have the burden of proof to demonstrate that those mechanisms exist and that they produce the results observed. When ID proponents make claims about an intelligent designer, they have the burden of proof to demonstrate that the intelligent designer exists and that it is capable of producing the results observed. Speaking of the burden of proof, this claim:
It took 10^20 reproductive events for malaria to evolve resistance to chloroquine with two randomly produced genetic variations
requires a great deal more support. Behe's derivation of this number is suspect. See Nick Matzke's comment here: http://scienceblogs.com/pharyngula/2007/06/behes_edge_of_evolution_part_i.php#comment-456458 for some of the issues. His summary is:
So it looks like resistance actually occurs by the gradual accumulation of several mutations, and that what you are seeing in the wild is not a few rare double-mutation events, but instead a few much-evolved strains that have accumulated a large number of resistance mutations.
Cassandra
May 16, 2010
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