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More Global Warming Lies; 2014 Almost Certainly Not the Warmest Year on Record

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How do you know when global warming alarmists are lying? Well, there is no hard and fast rule here, but a good rule of thumb is “when their lips are moving.”

On January 16 NASA issued a much heralded press release claiming that 2014 was the warmest year since temperature records have been maintained. Given the 17-year long pause in global warming, when I saw that headline my immediate response: “That’s probably not true; in a few days investigative journalists will sort the lies out.” I was right.

Britain’s Daily Mail reports:

the NASA press release failed to mention…that the alleged ‘record’ amounted to an increase over 2010, the previous ‘warmest year’, of just two-hundredths of a degree—or 0.02C. The margin of error is said by scientists to be approximately 0.1C—several times as much.

Summary: margin of error one tenth of a degree; alleged difference two hundreds of a degree. The change is five times smaller than the margin of error of the measurement.

As a result, GISS’s director Gavin Schmidt has now admitted NASA thinks the likelihood that 2014 was the warmest year since 1880 is just 38 per cent. However, when asked by this newspaper whether he regretted that the news release did not mention this, he did not respond.

Global warming: The only area of science where researchers report as absolute fact claims that are almost certainly not true. And why is this? Because for many environmentalists, their work is thinly veiled religious worship. Just like for many Darwinists. And that similarity is why a site devoted to origins reports on the former so often.

Comments
62% is "almost certainly" and you are accusing others of being fast and loose with numbers? As for the "plateau", has there been a statistically significant change in trend since 1998? Ad Pav apparently missed the first word of his/her quoted passage . FWIW, the real story, spelled out in NASA's reports, is that 2014 has the highest point-estimate in both the NASA and NOAA datasets. When coverage and uncertainties are accounted for, 2014 is also the single year most likely to be the hottest in both datasets (quite a lot more probably in the NOAA dataset, which the Mail somehow failed to mention...). The probability is almost entirely divided between three recent years (2005,2010 and 2014) so it's hard to see how this "plateau" is an end to global warming...wd400
January 19, 2015
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Barry Arrington: So it is your position that it was actually cooler at a time when grapes were being grown in northern England? The Domesday Book only lists vineyards south of Gloucestershire. In any case, there are many vineyards in England today, including red wine grapes in the south.Zachriel
January 19, 2015
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Barry Arrington: So it is your position that it was actually cooler at a time when grapes were being grown in northern England? Some regions were warmer than others; however, the global mean temperature was probably not higher than the mid-twentieth century.Zachriel
January 19, 2015
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Z @ 8: So it is your position that it was actually cooler at a time when grapes were being grown in northern England?Barry Arrington
January 19, 2015
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PaV: This NOAA and NASA are presumably using ‘surface’ temperatures, which are not as accurate as satellite temps, which show 2014 was the “15th warmest year” on record. Satellites don't measure surface temperature, but radiation in the atmosphere. Mapou: We know that the earth was much warmer than today during the medieval warm period. That is incorrect. The Medieval Warm Period *globally* was probably somewhat cooler than the mid-twentieth century, and significantly cooler than the last few decades. See Mann et al., Global Signatures and Dynamical Origins of the Little Ice Age and Medieval Climate Anomaly, Science 2009. In any case, it's not the current temperature that's the problem, but the projected increases over the next century that will cause substantial economic and social disruption, along with permanent losses of humanity's nature heritage.Zachriel
January 19, 2015
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Climate alarmist forget to mention Roman warm period. http://www.co2science.org/subject/r/summaries/rwpeurope.phpEugen
January 19, 2015
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V @ 2: The data state that there have been no statistically significant increases (or decreases) in global temps for nearly 20 years. We plateaued in about 1998. So, to answer your question, 2010 was about the same.Barry Arrington
January 19, 2015
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Mapou: "... who is promoting it." The wealthiest people on earth. Just read a figure: the top 1% of the world hold over 50% of all the wealth. Crony capitalism---the 'capitalist' form of fascism.PaV
January 19, 2015
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This NOAA and NASA are presumably using 'surface' temperatures, which are not as accurate as satellite temps, which show 2014 was the "15th warmest year" on record.
September 2014 ranks as the 15th warmest in the RSS satellite measured temperature record which dates back to 1979. It follows an anomaly of +0.19C in August which ranked as the 14th warmest August in the RSS record despite announcements from both NASA and NOAA that global surface temperatures – as opposed to tropospheric temperatures - in August were the hottest ever recorded.
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January 19, 2015
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What's worse, IMO, is that "hottest year on record" is just propaganda. We know that the earth was much warmer than today during the medieval warm period. In fact, human artifacts are frequently found underneath receding glaciers. There is something evil about global warming alarmism. I still can't figure out what the true motivation is and who is clandestinely promoting it.Mapou
January 19, 2015
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BA: Summary: margin of error one tenth of a degree; alleged difference two hundreds of a degree. The change is five times smaller than the margin of error of the measurement What was the margin of error on the 2010 measurement? Does possible second hottest year on record support no climate change, if so how? I noticed that the surface area of the oceans was hottest year recorded, any idea the ocean Heating up is significant in explaining a "pause"?velikovskys
January 19, 2015
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Barry, the pile of dirty snow out front is now higher than me (not that that in particular is any big feat, maybe, but ...). I slipped on the snow-ice-snow twice recently, re-breaking the trail across the park for the fifth time this winter. My neighbour lectures me about the correct snow shovel to buy if I get near the WalMart Canada any time soon, but the wind is up, so I get warnings about flash freezing. And when I get there, they will probably be sold out like they were sold out of road salt last year. All the other stores were sold out too. The hot water heater company shut off my services Friday because of CO leak risks. They say they'll try to do something for me this afternoon. But they are really busy. Lots of people have the same problem as me. My point? 1. Where is global warming when you NEED it? Like, I really need it. 2. I want crocuses to be coming up in the front yard and then I will believe global warming. Right now all I see is the blinding wind blowing snow off roofs.News
January 19, 2015
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