New Study: COVID-19 Cases Undercounted by Factor of up to 55

_{Barry Arrington
April 21, 2020

Intelligent Design

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Intelligent Design}

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The estimated infection numbers are 28 to 55 times higher than the 7,994 confirmed COVID-19 cases L.A. County had reported at the time of the study in early April.

This study seems to confirm the study reported in BREAKING: Stanford Study: COVID-19 Case Fatality Rate May Be Overstated By A Factor Of 85

It is becoming increasingly clear that we have closed the country down out of fear of a virus when the overwhelming majority of infections are so mild that the infected person never notices.

Comments

Ok, I've got work to do, so I won't watch it anytime soon. Can you let me know the data on response rate, and frequency of recent symptoms in the sample? Also how the confidence intervals are calculated to include the false positive rate?orthomyxo_{April 21, 2020
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kind of doubt a months old interview will have data on the response rate of a study carried out a few weeks ago
Interview is from 4 days ago. Did a previous interview a month ago. Link went to post from yesterday for interview on Friday.jerry_{April 21, 2020
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I kind of doubt a months old interview will have data on the response rate of a study carried out a few weeks ago ..orthomyxo_{April 21, 2020
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No preprint paper, no methodological summary, no sample description. Jut the headline numbers.
Watch the video I linked to. It explains everything. Is the methodology absolutely perfect. Probably not yet. Things are moving very quickly. Thousands dying each day. Tens of millions in US out of work. More studies coming. Data from Major League Baseball coming next. Other research methods include studies of human waste. I can just hear the objections. It’s a load of crap. The effects from the economic depression will dwarf any effects this virus is having. We are just one month into it. Just wait till money runs out or food gets scarce. There is a 6 month supply of food in the supply chain now. That may not be true much longer if everyone listens to the doom and gloom of those citing the negative effects of virus.jerry_{April 21, 2020
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You might as well stick a finger in each ear and run around yelling “la la la la; I’m not listening.” One study can be dismissed. A second study showing the same thing should give pause. A third study showing the same thing should at the very least warrant tentative acceptance. But nope, Jim has confirmation biases to protect at all costs. Sad that.
This is... not how it works. It's quite possible for more than one study to have the same methodological flaws and biases and produce the same spurious results as a result. In this case we have the Santa Clara with pretty major issues and this one, including the same researchers but containing no methodological data at all! No preprint paper, no methodological summary, no sample description. Jut the headline numbers. It seems this one may have been recruited by phone calls, but there is no data on the response rate and no data on how many have had symptoms recently so it's very hard to assess the bias in recruiting. GIven how far the US got behind on testing, there is no doubt the true incidence is much higher than the number of positive PCR tests, But it's very hard to align the upper-bound (or even the point estimates) of these studies with the death toll in NYC or the UK.orthomyxo_{April 21, 2020
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RHampton has presented results of tests at food processing plants. These studies on anti bodies will see who is at risk or not. We know younger people are less susceptible. Food processing should be top priority as these tests roll out to the country. Might not be a big problem if we do this as test gets more accurate and less expensive. Question is what are the number of potential deaths from a world wide depression? Are these tests a way to save lives from this very real economic depression. Again I recommend watching the interview linked to above. We should be grateful we have people like Dr. Bhattacharya https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/uk-the-fight-against-covid-19-an-update-from-dr-jay-bhattacharya/jerry_{April 21, 2020
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I was wondering what Barry’s point in focusing here on the CFR is. I think what we should be focusing on instead is the speed or “virality” of the contagion. Is there a statistical measure of that type of thing? If you look at a timeline as to when and how this pandemic unfolded you’ll see it sped around the world at an amazing speed. That’s a fact. Initially during February the response by the CDC and Coronavirus task force was focused on a containment strategy. This appears to have been somewhat successful on the west coast. No doubt this was in part due to Trump’s 1/31 travel ban which closed down travel from China. In retrospect, however, while it looks like he shut the front door fast enough he was somewhat tardy in shutting the back door which is why we had such a big flare-up in flare-up of Covid-19 in New York City. The CDC was forced to change its strategy to a nationwide mitigation strategy. Here are the latest statistics from NYC:
Confirmed cases: 136,806 Recovered: 18,018 Deaths: 10,344
How would knowing the actual CFR changed any of these facts? Answer: it wouldn’t. Facts are facts. In other words, knowing what we know now would not have given the CDC sufficient reason to change its current flattening the curve mitigation strategy. It was the prudent way to proceed. It still is. Going forward, of course, you can’t keep the economy shut down for much longer without causing serious long term life threatening damage.john_a_designer_{April 21, 2020
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Ten employees at the Post cereal plant in Battle Creek, MI have tested positive for COVID-19, according to a statement from the company. Employees who have had close contact with those who are sick have been asked to self-quarantine for 14 days. The workers will continue to be paid, and no employees will have to use sick time or paid time off. The plant has also increased cleaning, staggered shifts and implemented social distancing over the past few weeks. All employees entering the facility are also having their temperature checked, according to the company, and everyone has been supplied with face masks in an effort to reduce the likelihood of illness.rhampton7_{April 21, 2020
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After witnessing outbreaks at food processing plants in other states and receiving reports of cases among workers in our state, North Carolina public and private leaders have come together to take swift action to protect workers here from COVID-19. There are currently outbreaks in five food processing facilities located in Bladen, Chatham Duplin, Lee and Robeson counties. An outbreak is defined as two or more positive cases. Local health departments are conducting outbreak investigations including contact tracing to determine who else may have been exposed. Health care providers and hospitals are ensuring that those who test positive for COVID-19 are connected to care. Food processing plants report that they are doing temperature and symptom checks, encouraging sick employees to stay home and implementing paid sick leave for those with or suspected of having coronavirus. They are also providing personal protective equipment and employing social distancing policies where possible. Teams will alsol be available to conduct on-site assessments and providing technical assistance to plants to limit further spread.rhampton7_{April 21, 2020
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The union steward at the Tyson Foods Inc. plant in Logansport, IN told our partners at the Pharos-Tribune Monday at least 15 employees have tested positive for the virus. This despite reported social-distancing plans at the pork producing facility, the steward said. The Pharos-Tribune reported production was halted at the facility on Monday to work on deep cleaning and sanitizing the plant. Production is expected to resume on Tuesday. The newspaper was unable to reach anyone at the Cass County Health Department or the Tyson facility for comment.rhampton7_{April 21, 2020
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Mexican prepared foods maker Don Miguel Foods is closing its Dallas plant for 14 days, a production pause it describes as precautionary in response to “further spread of COVID-19 in the area.” The plant employs 700 people making tacos, burritos, chimichangas and other Mexican prepared foods products for retail and food service outlets. It expects to resume production May 4. Don Miguel Foods is a subsidiary of MegaMex Foods Corp., which is a joint venture between Mexico City-based Herdez Del Fuerte and Minnesota-based Hormel Foods Corp.rhampton7_{April 21, 2020
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A spokesman for Wayne Farms confirmed that 75 employees of the Albertville, AL plant have tested positive for coronavirus, and one has died. An additional 250 may have been exposed and are in quarantine as a precaution, said Wayne Farms spokesman Frank Singleton. The plant, which has more than 800 employees, will slow production to improve safety. That will allow employees to stand far enough apart to prevent transmission of the virus, Singleton said.rhampton7_{April 21, 2020
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An interview with the person behind the Stanford study. From a few days ago. https://www.nationalreview.com/corner/uk-the-fight-against-covid-19-an-update-from-dr-jay-bhattacharya/ It was first major test using anti-bodies The good news if true is that the virus is not as bad as media stories. Indicate The bad news is that about 97 % don’t have virus and this will take a long time till herd immunity and it will be impossible to eliminate it from the world. It will continue to come back. Did Los Angeles study and is doing Major League Baseball. Should be out soon. Data already collected. Essentially says we have been reacting to bad information. Reasonable based on what we knew. But we now more and must reevaluate our projections. Wants to do more tests. Three down and many tests to go. Already happening all over the world and several places in US. Maybe in RHampton’s food plants should be a priority.jerry_{April 21, 2020
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Just a little sampling of information on nursing home deaths from COVID-19 (from news report, https://thecity.nyc/2020/04/new-yorks-deadliest-nursing-homes-list-omits-many-deaths.html): "Bensonhurst Center for Rehabilitation and Healthcare in Brooklyn reported 34 deaths, or 17% of residents, the highest share among the city’s nursing homes, according to the state’s latest data. ............................. Five other nursing homes have reported that more than 10% of their residents have died of the virus: Carmel Richmond Healthcare and Rehabilitation Center in Staten island; Cobble Hill Health Center in Brooklyn; Franklin Center for Rehabilitation and Nursing; Holliswood Center for Rehabilitation and Healthcare; and Sapphire Center for Rehabilitation and Nursing in Queens." This sort of situation is apparently considerably underestimating the general nursing home situation due to under reporting. Of course, as the bodies pile up this disproportionate death rate occurring in nursing homes is to be expected based on observations that the elderly and infirm with preexisting conditions especially heart disease and lung conditions are particularly at risk from the coronavirus. As the disproportionate death rate in nursing homes continues, how long can conservative echo-chamber deniers claim it's just another flu-like virus grossly exaggerated by the liberal-controlled media?doubter_{April 21, 2020
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I see attacks on my character and authority, but I don’t see any explanation of where Gelman was wrong. I’m pretty sure when the data is in, a few weeks from now, the people with science backgrounds will be proven correct, and the people who credulously believed what Trump said will be making more excuses.Jim Thibodeau_{April 21, 2020
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“ Jim, the tenacity with which you grit your teeth and cling to your confirmation bias with a death grip is truly astonishing. Yes, by all means. Three studies say the same thing. They all must be wrong, because they upset Jim’s preconceived ideas about what the right answer just has to be. Well, Jim, that settles it. Let’s live in the world according to Jim. Irony alert. Jim is the first to yell “science denier” when discussing ID and climate change. It would be funny if it were not so sad.” Three words could’ve saved you a lot of typing.Jim Thibodeau_{April 21, 2020
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Whatever. But from what I have seen he has yet to make a logically valid argument that is based on real facts and evidence. Having a personal opinion and being argumentative about it is not the same as making an argument.john_a_designer_{April 21, 2020
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What’s Jim’s background? I believe he is a salesman with an engineering background. But that isn’t relevant if he is coherent and knows the issues. He has apparently read the false positive criticism some place.jerry_{April 21, 2020
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Search internet for Jay Bhattacharya. He is professor at Stanford and originator for study questioning severity of virus. He is an MD with a doctorate in Economics. The study was discussed on MedCram yesterday and raised the issues of false positives and self selection in the sample. Dr. Bhattacharya continues to defend his conclusions. It makes sense given the Diamond Princess experience.jerry_{April 21, 2020
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What’s Jim’s background? Or is he just an all-around know it all? Anyway you better watch out Barry. You better not start discussing things like constitutional law. Jim will be running circles around you. At least that’s what he and his tag team buddy Ed will be thinking.john_a_designer_{April 21, 2020
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Shouldn't have been a surprise. When a virus is in a community, it "infects" everyone. Almost everyone tosses it off and develops immunity. The current Branded Flu is a virus, so it behaves like a virus. The surprise that needs real investigation is why so many "scientists" suddenly started lying about this obvious and universally known fact.polistra_{April 21, 2020
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Barry what’s the false positive rate on those tests?
Jim, the tenacity with which you grit your teeth and cling to your confirmation bias with a death grip is truly astonishing. Yes, by all means. Three studies say the same thing. They all must be wrong, because they upset Jim's preconceived ideas about what the right answer just has to be. Well, Jim, that settles it. Let's live in the world according to Jim. Irony alert. Jim is the first to yell "science denier" when discussing ID and climate change. It would be funny if it were not so sad.Barry Arrington_{April 21, 2020
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@ Barry Arrington:
You might as well stick a finger in each ear and run around yelling “la la la la; I’m not listening.”
And it would surprise no one, since that's what naturalists have always been doing, denying reality and imagining for themselves one that never existed.Truthfreedom_{April 21, 2020
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Currently watching a long interview from last Friday of doctor who designed study from Stanford. Also the latest video from MedCram discusses all the objections to this study and also the examination of waste products in various municipalities.jerry_{April 21, 2020
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Second auestion, what did Andrew Gelman, Director of the Applied Statistics Center at Columbia University, get wrong in his analysis?Jim Thibodeau_{April 21, 2020
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Barry what’s the false positive rate on those tests?Jim Thibodeau_{April 21, 2020
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"Probably statistical error. " Translated: "Not scary enough" Jim Thibodeau, you take the proverbial cake. Andrewasauber_{April 21, 2020
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Probably statistical error.
You might as well stick a finger in each ear and run around yelling "la la la la; I'm not listening." One study can be dismissed. A second study showing the same thing should give pause. A third study showing the same thing should at the very least warrant tentative acceptance. But nope, Jim has confirmation biases to protect at all costs. Sad that.Barry Arrington_{April 21, 2020
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Probably statistical error. https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2020/04/19/fatal-flaws-in-stanford-study-of-coronavirus-prevalence/ The results they get were statistically consistent with anywhere from 0 to several percent infected. I’d be interested in Bob’s opinion, because he knows way more about stat then the rest of us here.Jim Thibodeau_{April 21, 2020
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I read an interesting article the other day that might be of value in the plan to loosen the restrictions. It talked about using the testing of raw sewage as a means of monitoring the infection levels in the community. If the COVID numbers increase in the sewage then it would be reasonable to assume that it is increasing in the community. There are obviously many things that would have to be addressed before this would be a cheap and reliable means of monitoring the infection levels. The first being are the analytical methods sensitive enough to detect it at levels that would be of value? As well, as you loosen the restrictions, the volumes of raw sewage would increase, diluting the virus counts.Ed George_{April 21, 2020
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