OWID — Covid patterns

_{kairosfocus

May 2, 2020

Academic Freedom, Defending our Civilization, Geo-strategic issues, Intelligent Design, Medicine, News Highlights, rhetoric, Sci-Tech watch}

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Let’s look at daily confirmed cases:

and at a seven-day rolling average for deaths:

South Korea seems to have beaten this wave. Several advanced countries show a stubborn plateau, which is reflected in the linear ongoing growth. It is not confined to the US, we need to learn from the Koreans; who BTW are HCQ users. The “mesa” for China underscores the observation that Chinese data has to be regarded with care. END

Comments

KF @19 I do not know the answer. Czech has 30,450 sq miles, Sweden 173,860 sq miles. However, I assume Sweden's population is concentrated in smaller areas and not spread out evenly. Hope this helps.GCS_{May 3, 2020
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GCS, how tightly urban is Sweden vs the Czech Republic? As in, a key driving factor for NYC. KFkairosfocus_{May 3, 2020
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Clarification to post 17 above. Deaths AS OF May 3 - Sweden 2669, Czech 245.GCS_{May 3, 2020
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Ed George, Country to country comparison. I chose Sweden (doing nothing) vs Czech Republic (1st country doing masks for all in Europe - remember me: "the mask" man). Similar populations 10.2 and 10.6 million. April 2 - Sweden had 6.25 times the deaths per population (.025% vs .004%) May 2 - Sweden had 11.3 times the deaths per population (.260% vs .023%) Note - may be at a plateau: 11.5 times May 1, 11.4 times May 3 Deaths on May 3 - Sweden 2669, Czech 245. Happy May.GCS_{May 3, 2020
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DS, We are very aware that drug investigation and scale-up to industrial manufacture are expensive, time consuming, high risk propositions, implying cross subsidisation of a costly R & D overhead by successful cases, further implying that "hot" new drugs will be high cost, far beyond direct manufacturing and materials, distribution, logistics, promotion etc. That's why the producer's side segments into groups, with the pioneering companies at the high end and those who live from generics etc in a low end, hecho en la Chine bloc. Further to this, we have indeed noted the costliness and time taken up by trials and approvals, with Thalidomide as chief case study on what could go wrong. (Though, BTW, Thalidomide is still in use for other cases.) So, no, it is not a simple objection to red tape in general, though that too is always an issue. For, the Marxists are right: any power class faces a temptation to turn a legitimate warrant into a power base. Dukes etc emerged from the need to protect vulnerable producers and service providers, leading to the feudal system in aftermath of the breaking of the W Roman empire. Principal-agent theory then predicts that agents will then tend to have self-interests or class interests that may diverge from the principal, where the very freedom of executive action is the same double edged sword that opens up room for creating a self-perpetuating agenda. Not even professionalism in itself shields from that. Similarly, accounting and auditing systems, post Enron, are clearly less than perfect answers. BTW, that is one reason for regular General Elections and for a free, significantly diverse press and for platforms to be content neutral . . . this being a clear, emerging, worrisome pattern currently: censorship, intimidation and chilling effect by the back door. Those in the catbird seat may not like the "solutions" they are inviting as we speak. Yes, we face yet another tangled problematique with a possible perfect storm brewing with an ongoing, trans-Atlantic peasant uprising by ballot box . . . so far. And yes, if the electorate reaches a critical mass, pent-up anger may lead to outcomes we may not believe are possible. That's why emerging signs of major abuse of policing powers to create an attempted media and lawfare lynching are sobering warning signs. Those, are general concerns, though they are directly relevant and exceedingly difficult to manage. Of course. "trials" . . . experiment or observational study . . . design is non-trivial and expensive. No one of relevance has suggested otherwise. That is not the issue in general or on this case. The primary issue is as I have repeatedly pointed out: double blind, placebo control studies lead directly to significant ethical problems in the face of a fast-moving newly emergent viral disease with a significant fatality rate. Linked, the tendency to enshrine such studies as a gold standard -- a term in routine use -- can readily transmute itself into a fallacy that over-discounts or dismisses other relevant and in fact cogent evidence. Where, oh if your data are noisy, multiplying cases may simply create more noise is an example of gold standard fallacy: in the face of pandemic, as I have repeatedly noted, we have noisy proxies inherently. Urgency of the real world forces us to deal with that, and once enough credible signal is there, it is good enough for responsible work. See the onward trends in the OP. The first of these implies that in cases where harm is a significant issue [deception as part of trials design is another factor; one, corrosive of the moral authority of the profession] then alternative approaches are warranted. That is or at least used to be a standard point noted in even relevant textbooks in recent decades. Thus, it is doubly important not to fall into a gold standard fallacy, which accelerates the ethical decline just noted. In a day when the enabling of the holocaust of our living posterity in the womb is a toxic cloud hanging over all of our heads, that should be ringing a lot of warning bells. In that context, the warrant for inductively developed knowledge, understanding that such knowledge is in the weak sense -- warranted, credibly true [so, reliable] belief -- and recognition that there are many valid ways to cumulatively build up warrant are pivotal. They also imply that bodies of knowledge thus built up must be held with reasonable awareness of the limitations of weak sense knowledge. (Recall, my earlier OP on that? I was not merely being pedantic and I certainly was not merely spilling bits and photons to "rant" away idiosyncratically. I targetted a clear weak point in our thinking. Similar to my focus on logic of being and its extension to core mathematics, which has a very different degree of warrant. One of the worst tendencies of our day is to don a Lab coat and sit over confidently on what we think we know.) In that context, issues of decision theory become relevant, particularly the concept that the state of the art or [near-] business as usual can serve as a reasonable baseline for exploring credible alternatives, at minimum on a balanced scorecard, ranked basis. We may even be able to apply interval or even ratio scales if we are lucky enough. Here , I think of likelihood ratios and the like. This allows us to avoid the ethics trap of setting up a questionable artificial baseline through placebos. This, has been discussed here in recent days and weeks. Cross-threading and the refusal to acknowledge cogent points undermines reasonable progress. So, I will have but little option than to take it from the silence, that the point is made: n-BAU vs ALT1, ALT2, etc is an obviously valid experiment, observation study and statistical investigation design; as opposed to PLAC vs TRIAL1, TRIAL2 etc. Where, a sufficiently wide cross section of cases will provide a base for calibration against census data derived demographics. In the context of which, it is often wise to stratify a study and over-represent vulnerable groups. Further to this, a collection of dozens, then hundreds, then thousands of relevant cases gathered with due attention to reasonable record is clearly material to the issue at stake. Animal analogue studies, if we can get them . . . the bats! [and, unfortunately, that may well be how this got started -- containment in research labs is a sobering issue] . . . are obviously relevant. In which context, Mr Lowe's dismissive suggestion on if things work in humans needed to be balanced by recognition of the general utility of animal studies. Where, too, in vitro studies showing chemical activity at relevant concentrations are also valid. Let us never forget that penicillin was discovered through a contaminated petri dish. I note:
Returning from holiday on September 3, 1928, Fleming began to sort through petri dishes containing colonies of Staphylococcus, bacteria that cause boils, sore throats and abscesses. He noticed something unusual on one dish. It was dotted with colonies, save for one area where a blob of mold was growing. The zone immediately around the mold—later identified as a rare strain of Penicillium notatum—was clear, as if the mold had secreted something that inhibited bacterial growth. Fleming found that his "mold juice" was capable of killing a wide range of harmful bacteria, such as streptococcus, meningococcus and the diphtheria bacillus. He then set his assistants, Stuart Craddock and Frederick Ridley, the difficult task of isolating pure penicillin from the mold juice.
Such was of course a paradigmatic event, which led to the era of antibiotics. It also underscores the significance of in vitro studies and observation studies. A fortiori, if a breakthrough could lurk in a petri dish spoiled by contamination, one can also lurk in animal studies and in reasonably recorded human studies. And indeed, the case of the discovery of penicillin is precisely a case of such. Let us note a further remark in the just cited article:
It was Howard Florey, Ernst Chain and their colleagues at the Sir William Dunn School of Pathology at Oxford University who turned penicillin from a laboratory curiosity into a life-saving drug. Their work on the purification and chemistry of penicillin began in earnest in 1939, just when wartime conditions were beginning to make research especially difficult. To carry out a program of animal experiments and clinical trials the team needed to process up to 500 liters a week of mold filtrate.
Notice, in vitro, then in animals and in the clinic, backed by creation of a reliable production process (albeit, at the first, significantly improvised . . . "bedpans"). All of which requires meticulous record towards replicability. Paradigmatic. In this light, I find the wave of politicised dismissiveness and loaded studies trumpeted in the media to discredit a significant cluster of cases and recognitions by several significant countries is telling. Sadly telling. Surely, we can do better. KFkairosfocus_{May 3, 2020
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An interesting post by Derek Lowe: Why are clinical trials so complicated?daveS_{May 2, 2020
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RH7, once SARS2 broke out, loss of life was inevitable. The challenge is to minimise losses from disease + dislocation, a tough challenge. The prolonged plateau of leading nations shows how hard it is to turn the curve down, even among advanced countries. KFkairosfocus_{May 2, 2020
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Still reeling from the death of its president and CEO to COVID-19, Gilster-Mary Lee Corp., one of Southern Illinois’ largest employers and a critical food manufacturer, continues to grapple with an outbreak of the coronavirus that has idled two plants and sickened numerous factory workers over the past few weeks. Though the company has had to temporarily shutter two plants — one in Chester two weeks ago, and one this week in Steeleville — food production continues. The Chester baking mix plant, which shut down April 18, began reopening this week, and two additional plants, one each in Chester and Steeleville, have continued operations uninterrupted. Employees have tested positive across all four plants, though workers at the Steeleville baking mix plant have been hit hardest. About a fourth of the plant’s 400 employees had tested positive as of Friday. The Southern’s interviews with more than a dozen people with knowledge of the outbreaks at Gilster-Mary Lee, and the response to it, shed light on some of the difficult conversations playing out behind the scenes in a rural area where the public health and economic stakes are high. According to Botos, there are about 3,000 food manufacturing companies in Illinois. Many are in the meat-packing and processing industry, but less has been said about other food manufacturers producing everything from mac-and-cheese to food additives such as sweetener and corn syrup to tortillas and Tootsie Rolls.rhampton7_{May 2, 2020
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The Iowa Department of Public Health reported on Saturday that another 757 Iowans have tested positive for COVID-19, bringing the total number of confirmed cases in the state to 8,641. The new number breaks the record for the number of cases reported on a single day that was set on Friday. For weeks, Linn County led the state in the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19. Recently, it has been surpassed by Polk (1,350 cases), Black Hawk (1,255 cases) and Woodbury (1,704 cases). Woodbury County only had 21 confirmed cases on April 14. As in Black Hawk County, its surge in cases is related to an outbreak at a Tyson meat processing plant. However, unlike the situation in Black Hawk, the plant responsible for the cases in Woodbury isn’t located in the county. It isn’t even located in Iowa — it’s across the Nebraska state line in Dakota County. Gov. Kim Reynolds has consistently and vigorously defended the actions of Tyson and other meat processors related to COVID-19. Reynolds has said that company CEOs and plant managers have assured her their processing plants are doing an excellent job of protecting their workers and preventing the spread of the virus.rhampton7_{May 2, 2020
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As of Friday afternoon, Case Farms has confirmed positive cases of COVID-19 at its chicken processing facility in Holmes County, OH. The number of cases was not made public. The Holmes County General Health District (Health Department) and surrounding county health departments have been working with Case Farms to identify anyone who may have been in contact with the infected individuals. Many of the company's employees reside in Tuscarawas County.rhampton7_{May 2, 2020
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According to Kentucky state officials, 124 employees at Perdue Farms in Ohio County, 74 employees at Tyson Foods in Henderson County, and 22 employees at Specialty Foods Group in Daviess County have tested positive for COVID-19. Now some of those facilities are having to temporarily shut down in order to deep clean. The latest facility to do so is Specialty Foods Group, LLC. A company spokesperson says the plant will temporarily close for extensive cleaning on May 3, with plans to reopen on May 11.rhampton7_{May 2, 2020
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Tyson Fresh Meats on Friday idled its largest beef processing plant for four days of deep cleaning after a surge of coronavirus cases in the area. Health officials have reported hundreds of new coronavirus cases in both Nebraska’s Dakota County, where the plant is located, and Iowa’s nearby Woodbury County. With 4,300 workers, the plant is easily the Sioux City metro area’s largest employer. While Tyson has declined to say how many of its workers there have been infected, the Sioux City Journal reported, citing a source familiar with the situation it did not name, that 669 workers so far have tested positive for COVID-19.rhampton7_{May 2, 2020
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Pennsylvania leads the nation in confirmed cases of COVID-19 among meat production workers, according to a report released by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Friday, the same day that activists and workers from one Central Pennsylvania plant began protesting what they described as unsafe working conditions. Across Pennsylvania, 22 meat- and poultry-processing plants employed workers sickened by the coronavirus, the report says. The state with the next highest number of impacted plants, Georgia, has almost half as many affected facilities. Pennsylvania’s 858 confirmed cases of the virus among meat production workers also tops other states’ tallies by dozens of cases, signaling that the invisible virus had spread further across this essential industry in recent weeks than the public has realized.rhampton7_{May 2, 2020
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At least 115 people tested positive for the virus this week, including 16 new cases announced on Saturday. The majority of people who tested positive either work at the Tyson Meats poultry processing plant in Wilkesboro NC, or are close contacts of the employees there, according to the Forsyth County Health Department. Even if the outbreak continues, it is unlikely that the plant in Wilkesboro will close. President Donald Trump signed an executive order earlier this week mandating meat processing facilities stay open in order to keep the nation’s food supply chains intact. It is not clear how Tyson plans to prevent any future spread of the virus. A call to its corporate office was not immediately returned Saturday.rhampton7_{May 2, 2020
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An interesting strategy to monitor the spread of COVID in a population. There are many factors that will have to be accounted for, such as dilution of sewage due to increased industrial use and storm water infiltration. But if it is feasible, it is a much cheaper and possibly more sensitive way to track overall infiltration within a population. https://apple.news/AflrQc6PeSvqfNPT5Y9BX5AEd George_{May 2, 2020
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DS, yes, Brazil is still growing although slowing just now. The issue is to get turnover. KFkairosfocus_{May 2, 2020
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EG, the exponential growth implies growth based on the absolute pool of the infected, unless tamed by isolation or saturation effects. In that context, scale of community only sets the potential upper limit. Per capita models do not impress me. KFkairosfocus_{May 2, 2020
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KF, have you seen any of these plots that are normalized for population size? They would be very informative as to the effectiveness of the approaches used by different countries.Ed George_{May 2, 2020
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Looks like Brasil is aiming to break out of the pack. We're all going to pay a price if they can't get it under control.daveS_{May 2, 2020
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OWID — Covid patterns --> South Korea seems to have beaten this wave. Several advanced countries show a stubborn plateau, which is reflected in the linear ongoing growth. It is not confined to the US, we need to learn from the Koreans; who BTW are HCQ users. The “mesa” for China underscores the observation that Chinese data has to be regarded with care.kairosfocus_{May 2, 2020
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