Part III: Pass me a Corona!

_{April 15, 2020

Intelligent Design}

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There are numerous article out there right now indicating that the fatality ratio of this corona virus looks to be in the same range as that of a seasonal flu. Dr. Fauci keeps saying that he thinks this virus will be a seasonal flu. But, of course.

Now, there’s a study by an Israeli scientist who tells us that this virus has its own pattern and that this patterns works itself out over a set period of time, lockdown or no. He marvels at the fear factor at work. It’s like a seasonal flu. He asks: was this exponential growth? His answer: no. (Was I not mocked for not understanding that we were dealing with exponential growth——–while I was looking at a chart that was going up linearly!)

Frankly, I’m tired of this nonsense. I live in California. Six weeks of this virus: about 800 deaths. We all mourn those who die; but 800 deaths is next to nothing. In the meantime I have to wear a facemask to buy detergent, can’t go to the library or the beach. Easter Sunday didn’t happen in so many ways. Why isn’t life back to normal right now? Why? A Democratic governor. We’re witnessing the politicization of science before our eyes by people who can’t function rationally. Alas.

And, how did we get here? Bureaucratic mismanagement, as usual. Our friend, Neil Ferguson, has published models over the years that did exactly what his latest one did: completely miss the mark by orders of magnitude. This isn’t the first time. Why did anybody who knows anything pay any attention to him?

I might not respond very much. This is being so depressingly mismanaged.

Comments

Truthfreedom: Again, who are you to judge what is ‘weird’ and ‘deviant’? I"ve got as much right as you do I suppose. How do you judge? Based on what exactly? What about you? Why do you think about such things so much? You seem almost obsessed with them. I don't think about any of it at all really to be honest. Not like you. What is your authority? Pretty much zero I'd say. Were not you a ‘moral’ relativist? Did you not endorse ‘consensual sex between adults’? Might have done. It's not something I think about a lot. Besides, there are laws about some of the issues you find so fascinating so I'll defer to those. Where do you get your morals from then? Are you Ed George’s lawyer, sweetheart? Nope, haven't passed the bar exam. Don't get fresh with me!! I know you want to but I'm not that kind of person. The man supports abortion and says ‘inclusive fitness’ is a good explanation. So? A good explanation is not the same as an endorsement is it? And I don't have to agree with him. Oh, sorry for being logical. Would you let one of your loved ones die of COVID-19 or not? Of course not. I can't "let" anyone die of COVID-19. At the moment, where I live, the therapies being disputed are not available so it's not something I would have to decide upon. As I've said over and over and over again, I'm happy to wait and see what the controlled tests say. But you keep wanting to hammer on the issue, what point are you trying to make? So you are ok with your faulty logic? Again, that is YOUR problem. That you love being irrational. Parrot, here is your birdseed. It could do with a bit more sesame to be honest. You’re not very good at reasoning. That explains you being an adult who believes in fairy-tales dressed as science (a. k.a. ‘darwinism’). Oh well, I guess I'll just have to learn to live with that. But if you'd care to debate whether or not some infinite series converge and to what value (an example of pure reasoning) I'd be happy to have a go. The rest of your post @84 is mindless garbage, so I won’t bother. And you're right because . . . What is the problem with necrophilia? Apart from your personal likes/ dislikes, that mean absolutely nothing. I didn't realise you were in favour of it! I find it disgusting and very likely to spread some nasty infections. Since you're so interested perhaps you should find someplace else to have a discussion about it. And, again, there are laws prohibiting it. If you'd like to contest those laws be my guest. A REASON would be nice. And what's your reason for your opinion? How do you come by it? Read it in a book perhaps?JVL_{April 17, 2020
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The rest of your post @84 is mindless garbage, so I won't bother. AGAIN: What is the problem with necrophilia? Apart from your personal likes/ dislikes, that mean absolutely nothing. A REASON would be nice.Truthfreedom_{April 17, 2020
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@JVL Again, who are you to judge what is 'weird' and 'deviant'? Based on what exactly? What is your authority? Were not you a 'moral' relativist? Did you not endorse 'consensual sex between adults'? --- Are you Ed George's lawyer, sweetheart? The man supports abortion and says 'inclusive fitness' is a good explanation. --- Would you let one of your loved ones die of COVID-19 or not? Of course not. --- So you are ok with your faulty logic? Again, that is YOUR problem. That you love being irrational. Parrot, here is your birdseed. --- You're not very good at reasoning. That explains you being an adult who believes in fairy-tales dressed as science (a. k.a. 'darwinism').Truthfreedom_{April 17, 2020
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Truthfreedom: And who are you exactly to judge what is ‘weird’ and ‘deviant’? Are you disagreeing with my characterisation? I'll just make a note of that . . . Why is it then ‘deviant’ (cough cough) for two blood related adults to have consensual sex with each other? Has anyone actually done it or are you just making it up? You seem to have a very vivid imagination for such things. You continually bring up necrophilia as well . . . And please do not start again with your typical kindergarten cry-baby-you have an agenda-appeal to moderators attitude. Just wanting to see if there is a double standard. If your logic is faulty, that is YOUR problem, not mine. Deal with it. I'll be okay but thanks for your concern. That is what you hate. That your logic is stupid. I'm not a self-hater actually. Liar. If you or one of your loved ones were in the ICU, with the information we have right now related to these drugs, you would take them. You're not very good at mind reading, don't give up your day job. Liar. You seem upset, do you want to talk about it? When you've finished trawling through the whole thread looking for possible contradictions between two different people that is (and Ed didn't endorse a point of view, he just noted it). Don't let me interrupt you. It is good then to kill some of your children to ‘enhance your reproductive fitness’. Oh, and ‘interesting’ ???? This is moral bankruptcy. You converted "it is thought" to "it is good". How did you decide that was a correct conversion?JVL_{April 17, 2020
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@53 JVL
Since no one did actually make such an endorsement (killing your babies enhances your reproductive fitness)
Liar. Ed George:
Filial infanticide has been observed in many species and is thought to be done to enhance the survival of the offspring the parent already has. It is interesting that the majority of women who have an abortion, by a wide margin, already have children.
It is good then to kill some of your children to 'enhance your reproductive fitness'. Oh, and 'interesting' :) This is moral bankruptcy. https://uncommondescent.com/ud-newswatch-highlights/today-fri-jan-24th-2020-is-the-annual-march-for-life/ Comment #44.Truthfreedom_{April 17, 2020
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@JVL
I PERSONALLY would not take it or proscribe it without proper trials having been carried out.
Liar. If you or one of your loved ones were in the ICU, with the information we have right now related to these drugs, you would take them.Truthfreedom_{April 17, 2020
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@JVL
I will leave wondering why Truthfreedom is so fascinated by weird and deviant sexual practices for others to contemplate.
And who are you exactly to judge what is 'weird' and 'deviant'? Were not you the person that says that consensual sex between adults is ok? Why is it then 'deviant' (cough cough) for two blood related adults to have consensual sex with each other? And please do not start again with your typical kindergarten cry-baby-you have an agenda-appeal to moderators attitude. If your logic is faulty, that is YOUR problem, not mine. Deal with it. That is what you hate. That your logic is stupid.Truthfreedom_{April 17, 2020
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But California is not doing much better than Florida. Looking at people over 65, Florida has a lower death rate for this population than California. Or they did up til yesterday.jerry_{April 17, 2020
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One of the reasons California is doing much better than Florida, they took it seriously and locked down weeks before our low-IQ Republicans did.
To be fair, the pattern is more complicated than that. Florida actually shut down sooner than its first case than California did: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/democratic-and-gop-governors-enacted-stay-at-home-orders-on-the-same-timeline-but-all-holdouts-are-republicans/ Some of the difference are presumably because states with Republican governors tended to be hit later.Bob O'H_{April 17, 2020
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JVL, we continue to deal with noisy proxies, a common reality in addressing an emergency. How infections are tracked captures only the tip of the iceberg, where mild or asymptomatic infections will be material to true fatality rates, or even to initial spreading of the disease . . . recall, this was spotted clinically because of odd clustering in the expected flu season, in Wuhan. Likewise, was that person Jan 15 - 17 the true US patient zero, or could earlier cases lurk in flu data? Accounting for fatalities leads to issues regarding deaths caused by the novel disease vs those involving it. There is also the factor of somewhat accelerated, expected deaths -- which overlaps with the flu. Those are sausage factory issues that are not commonly debated publicly, but are comparable to constraints on executive and strategic decision-making under time-sensitive constraints. Our rationality is bounded, information is noisy and often partially conflicting, opinions of experts clash, every alternative comes with costs + risks + uncertainties (not just potential benefits), gaining further information is costly and may eat up time that we may not have in hand, etc. This is where sober minded prudence [as opposed to selective hyperskepticism] becomes a key factor in sound judgement. Decision theory is challenging, much less the practice. KFkairosfocus_{April 17, 2020
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JVL, have you forgotten that HCQ has been a common, even dominant antimalarial? That means that it has been used for the general population (especially in malarial zones), and for decades. That is why -- duly noting that pharmacology is "the study of poisons in small doses" -- it is significant to see that as Dr Oz commented, the Lupus Society leadership remarked on its safety and utility: main complications seem to come from long term use. As for dosages, the effectiveness we see reported comes from the dosage ranges reported; which seem fairly consistent with its long established uses. In the Raoult in vitro study on effectiveness, plausible concentrations were used, implying those that come from established use. By contrast, Thalidomide was a novelty and was not used in a context as serious as Malaria, much less this highly contagious, fast acting, deadly pandemic. And, the danger from Thalidomide IIRC, came from the use of racemic form, where the Dextro side turned out to be active rather than inactive. That seemed to be a surprise. In in vitro organic synthesis, racemic form is expected and can be challenging [read: significantly costly] to turn to homochiral form. KF PS: We have seen suggested and officially prescribed protocols including dosages noted here at UD, from China [an official recommendation], from France and from the USA. The numbers in Brazil seem to be 2 - 3 times that range. I think we are seeing here, inquiry into sausage factory details, which surface all sorts of internal debates and objections or views that would not be widely publicised in absence of a politicised debate. FYI the couple who took fish tank cleaner on their own initiative took a teaspoonful each, which is indubitably well beyond any reasonable dosage. CQ and HCQ are prescription drugs, which normally implies knowledge of medical history and linked issues such as hypertension, chronic diseases, general condition etc; routinely noted as a first step to create a patient file.kairosfocus_{April 16, 2020
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Tracking excess deaths during COVID-19 pandemic. https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/04/16/tracking-covid-19-excess-deaths-across-countries EDTA: We should keep in mind that thalidomide was not being given for a condition anywhere near as dangerous as covid-19. Kairosfocus: Thalidomide was a novel drug without a 65 year history of regular, routine, widespread use. That is a highly material difference to HCQ What is the appropriate dose of HCQ for patients with confirmed COVID-19? We don't know. Has is been shown to be safe to use for patients with heart disease, diabetes, obesity, pregnant women . . . There are lots of questions that really should be answered especially since the people most likely to succumb to COVID-19 have underlying medical conditions. Let me be clear: I would not stop anyone from using or proscribing HCQ or a combination of drugs. I PERSONALLY would not take it or proscribe it without proper trials having been carried out.JVL_{April 16, 2020
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Um...a fifth order polynomial? I don’t think you have to have one of our fancy degrees to know how likely that is to go haywire.Jim Thibodeau_{April 16, 2020
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And, how did we get here? Bureaucratic mismanagement, as usual. Our friend, Neil Ferguson, has published models over the years that did exactly what his latest one did: completely miss the mark by orders of magnitude.
What on earth are you talking about? Do you mean his model understimated the deaths in a lockdown? Quite possibly, but not my orders of magnitude.
Now, there’s a study by an Israeli scientist who tells us that this virus has its own pattern and that this patterns works itself out over a set period of time, lockdown or no
Fitting 5th order polynomials to reported testing data (which varies hugely because countries like the US, UK have given up on testing as a way of tracking spread) is a way to spend some time, but not really a "study". The peak he finds in Sweden appears to be about week-day effects in how tests are reported (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/)orthomyxo_{April 16, 2020
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In the 24 hours ending at 8 p.m. Eastern time Thursday, 4,591 people were reported to have died from Covid-19, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis of data from Johns Hopkins University. The prior record was 2,569 on Wednesday.rhampton7_{April 16, 2020
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our testing has flatlined at about 145,000 test per day.
So you are saying that because 78% of the tests prove negative, that they are choosing the wrong people to test. And if they only tested those who had the disease, the numbers would be much higher? Maybe the doctors should study up on what the symptoms of the disease are so that these people who have the disease don't fall through the cracks. Zelenko was pretty good at identifying who had the disease.. I believe over 60% of the people he identified as possible ended up positive. Zelenko seemed to be good at this as well as how to determine early how to cure it. Maybe US doctors should study Zelenko's methods.jerry_{April 16, 2020
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EG I’m also thinking sunlight might be a big factor. Vividvividbleau_{April 16, 2020
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“I’m just a beer and maple syrup swilling Canadian but even I know that the Democrats tend to dominate in the most densely populated states, a condition that favours the spread of any disease. “ It’s not based on density or the number of population rather per 100k per person. I get your point though but if it’s density then it has nothing to do with political party which is my point. Vividvividbleau_{April 16, 2020
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Vivid
Wow all of the Republican Governors that govern these top ten states are sure low IQ
I’m just a beer and maple syrup swilling Canadian but even I know that the Democrats tend to dominate in the most densely populated states, a condition that favours the spread of any disease. We are seeing the same trend in Canada. Ontario and Quebec are the most densely populated provinces, and have the most cases.Ed George_{April 16, 2020
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“One of the reasons California is doing much better than Florida, they took it seriously and locked down weeks before our low-IQ Republicans did.” From Reuters here are the top 10 states with the most cases per 100k people 1) New York, 2) New Jersey, 3) Massachusetts,4) Louisiana, 5) Michigan, 6) Connecticut 7) Rhode Island, 8) District of Columbia, 9) Maryland, 10) Colorado Wow all of the Republican Governors and one Mayor that govern these top 9 states and one district are sure low IQ As to Florida it has 109 cases 3 deaths per 100k, California 71 cases 2 deaths per 100k Vividvividbleau_{April 16, 2020
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When this is finally over, epidemiologists are going to spend years sorting through all of the data to try to identify the contributing factors. Age, obesity, immune compromised, cultural habits, population density, etc.Ed George_{April 16, 2020
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Rhampton I just found out something horrible. For the last 10 days it looks like the new cases in the US has been linear instead of exponential, at 30,000 new cases per day. Well I just found out the reason it looks like that is for the last 10 days our testing has flatlined at about 145,000 test per day.Jim Thibodeau_{April 16, 2020
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Of the four largest states Texas seems to be the luckiest so far. New York by far the worst. I used 55 because it was easy to find the number. An older age number might be better. Yes, I know that all deaths are not over 55. California has 5.7 million over 55 and 864 deaths or 151 deaths per million persons over 55 - Over half. the deaths are in Los Angeles county Florida has 4.4 million over 55 and 614 deaths or 140 deaths per million persons over 55 - Almost half the deaths are in Dade and Broward counties Texas has 3.6 million over 55 and 375 deaths or 104 deaths per million persons over 55 - A little less than half are in Houston, Dallas and Ft. Worth. New York has 3.2 million over 55 and 11,586 deaths or 3620 deaths per million persons over 55jerry_{April 16, 2020
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The official tally of coronavirus cases in the Veterans Affairs’ health system rose to 4,946 on Thursday, a jump of nearly 11 percent from the previous day’s totals. Sixteen VA medical centers are now reporting more than 100 coronavirus cases among their patients, and 29 facilities have reported at least 50 cases, according to data released by the department on Thursday. The overnight increase in positive tests was the largest one-day rise VA officials have seen since April 4, when the system had just over 2,500 cases. Fatalities are also rising rapidly. On April 4, the department reported 98 deaths from the fast-spreading illness, nearly all of them in the previous two weeks. In the 12 days since then, the death toll has risen to 284, officials said Thursday.rhampton7_{April 16, 2020
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JVL, Thalidomide was a novel drug without a 65 year history of regular, routine, widespread use. That is a highly material difference to HCQ. KFkairosfocus_{April 16, 2020
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Gov. Kim Reynolds on Thursday acknowledged a suspected COVID-19 outbreak at a meatpacking plant in Black Hawk County. The potential outbreak at the Waterloo plant, which has nearly 3,000 workers, extend the worries about meatpacking plants in Iowa and around the nation. Local officials said there were 150 COVID-19 cases in the county and one death, though they did not directly tie all those illnesses to the plant. But Black Hawk County Sheriff Tony Thompson did target the Waterloo facility in comments Thursday afternoon, although he did not mention it by name. "Many of these cases are attributable to just one local employer. And having visited that location and witnessed their attempts and approaches to employee protection and safety practices as it pertains to the COVID-19 virus, there was clearly more that could and should have been done," Thompson said. "Today, our entire ... countywide health care delivery and virus response system is paying the price for those lapses in protocol."rhampton7_{April 16, 2020
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Perhaps you’re not familiar with another drug that was used without proper trials being done
How many millions of people have used CQ or HCQ. My guess it is tens of millions. So your comparison is not even close. It already has success in fighting this disease. I suggest you read all the examples that have been presented.jerry_{April 16, 2020
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JVL @ 52, We should keep in mind that thalidomide was not being given for a condition anywhere near as dangerous as covid-19.EDTA_{April 16, 2020
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JT
One of the reasons California is doing much better than Florida, they took it seriously and locked down weeks before our low-IQ Republicans did..
Are you suggesting that they might be CovIDiots? :)Ed George_{April 16, 2020
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And studies from things like the Spanish flu in 1918 show that it’s the places who lock down the quickest and hardest that do the best economically, not the ones who fail to, naïvely believing that they’re bettering their economy. An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure. One of the reasons California is doing much better than Florida, they took it seriously and locked down weeks before our low-IQ Republicans did.Jim Thibodeau_{April 16, 2020
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