Talk about hope springing eternal: 2020 for our history-making alien life find?

_{Denyse O'Leary

November 27, 2019

Exoplanets, Extraterrestrial life, Intelligent Design}

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Alien tripod by Alvim Corréa, 1906 French edition of H.G. Wells’ “War of the Worlds”

Then, almost immediately, a backtrack from the title! We are told at Space.com, “Probably not, but there are reasons to be optimistic about our near-future prospects.

Oh dear. If this were private life and not Science (!), it would all sound like that sort of woman, at least one of whom absolutely everyone knows, who wonders if this time her shiftless boyfriend is finally going to keep the job he landed…

Sure, dear.

No, but seriously:

The search for intelligent beings elsewhere, Shostak said, is largely conducted by checking out nearby star systems for either narrow-band radio signals or brief flashes of laser light. And those might succeed at any time, he told Space.com.
“But one should remember that this type of search is gaining speed in an exponential fashion, and that particular technical fact allows a crude estimate of when SETI might pay off. If we take — for lack of a better estimate — Frank Drake’s opinion that there might be 10,000 broadcasting societies in the Milky Way, then we clearly have to examine at least one [million] – 10 million stellar systems to have a reasonable chance of tripping across one. That goal will be reached in the next two decades, but certainly not in 2020,” Shostak said.
Leonard David, “Will 2020 Be the Year We Find Intelligent Alien Life?” at Space.com

It would be marvellous to find aliens out there to talk to, even if they turned to be an awful bore. But there is something suspicious about these statistics. With no single alien ever found, they offer us no history to go by.

See also: Tales of an invented god

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as to:
“But one should remember that this type of search is gaining speed in an exponential fashion, and that particular technical fact allows a crude estimate of when SETI might pay off. If we take — for lack of a better estimate — Frank Drake’s opinion that there might be 10,000 broadcasting societies in the Milky Way, then we clearly have to examine at least one [million] – 10 million stellar systems to have a reasonable chance of tripping across one. That goal will be reached in the next two decades, but certainly not in 2020,” Shostak said.
First off, there is Fermi's paradox.
The Fermi Paradox - May 21, 2014 Excerpt: if 1% of intelligent life survives long enough to become a potentially galaxy-colonizing Type III Civilization, our calculations above suggest that there should be at least 1,000 Type III Civilizations in our galaxy alone—and given the power of such a civilization, their presence would likely be pretty noticeable. And yet, we see nothing, hear nothing, and we’re visited by no one. So where is everybody? Welcome to the Fermi Paradox. We have no answer to the Fermi Paradox,,, https://waitbutwhy.com/2014/05/fermi-paradox.html
Secondly, the Drake equation is a grossly simplistic and misleading estimate for the probability of finding life elsewhere in the universe. A far more realistic estimate for finding life elsewhere in the universe is Dr. Hugh Ross's estimate,
Linked from Appendix C from Dr. Ross's book, 'Why the Universe Is the Way It Is'; Probability Estimates for the Features Required by Various Life Forms: Excerpt: Requirements to sustain bacteria for 90 days or less: Probability for occurrence of all 501 parameters approx. 10-614 dependency factors estimate approx. 10^-303 longevity requirements estimate approx. 10^22 Probability for occurrence of all 501 parameters approx. 10^-333 Maximum possible number of life support bodies in observable universe approx. 10^22 Thus, less than 1 chance in 10^311 exists that even one such life-support body would occur anywhere in the universe without invoking divine miracles. Requirements to sustain unicellar life for three billion year: Probability for occurrence of all 676 parameters approx. 10^-859 dependency factors estimate approx. 10^-303 longevity requirements estimate approx. 10^22 Probability for occurrence of all 676 parameters approx. 10^-578 Maximum possible number of life support bodies in observable universe approx. 10^22 Thus, less than 1 chance in 10^556 exists that even one such life-support body would occur anywhere in the universe without invoking divine miracle Requirements to sustain intelligent physical life: Probability for occurrence of all 816 parameters approx. 10^-1333 dependency factors estimate approx. 10^-324 longevity requirements estimate approx. 10^45 Probability for occurrence of all 816 parameters approx. 10^-1054 Maximum possible number of life support bodies in observable universe approx. 10^22 Thus, less than 1 chance in 10^1032 exists that even one such life-support body would occur anywhere in the universe without invoking divine miracle http://d4bge0zxg5qba.cloudfront.net/files/compendium/compendium_Part3_ver2.pdf
And that is just the probability of finding a life supporting planet in the universe,,, that does not even take into account the probability against 'simple' life forming by chance on that life supporting planet,
DID LIFE START BY CHANCE? Excerpt: Molecular biophysicist, Harold Morowitz (Yale University), calculated the odds of life beginning under natural conditions (spontaneous generation). He calculated, if one were to take the simplest living cell and break every chemical bond within it, the odds that the cell would reassemble under ideal natural conditions (the best possible chemical environment) would be one chance in 10^100,000,000,000. You will have probably have trouble imagining a number so large, so Hugh Ross provides us with the following example. If all the matter in the Universe was converted into building blocks of life, and if assembly of these building blocks were attempted once a microsecond for the entire age of the universe. Then instead of the odds being 1 in 10^100,000,000,000, they would be 1 in 10^99,999,999,916 http://members.tripod.com/~Black_J/chance.html Harold Joseph Morowitz was an American biophysicist who studied the application of thermodynamics to living systems. Author of numerous books and articles, his work includes technical monographs as well as essays. The origin of life was his primary research interest for more than fifty years. "In another book I wrote with Fuz, Who Was Adam?, we describe calculations done by evolutionary biologist Francisco Ayala and by astrophysicists John Barrow, Brandon Carter, and Frank Tipler for the probability that a bacterium would evolve under ideal natural conditions—given the presumption that the mechanisms for natural biological evolution are both effective and rapid. They determine that probability to be no more than 10-24,000,000. The bottom line is that rather than the probability for extraterrestrial intelligent life being 1 as Aczel claims, very conservatively from a naturalistic perspective it is much less than 10^500 + 22 -1054 -100,000,000,000 -24,000,000. That is, it is less than 10-100,024,000,532. In longhand notation it would be 0.00 … 001 with 100,024,000,531 zeros (100 billion, 24 million, 5 hundred and thirty-one zeros) between the decimal point and the 1. That longhand notation of the probability would fill over 20,000 complete Bibles. - Hugh Ross- Does the Probability for ETI = 1?
Nor does it take into account the probability against scientifically advanced, (i.e. intelligent), life accidentally evolving from that 'simple' life on that life supporting planet,
“In Barrow and Tippler's book The Anthropic Cosmological Principle, they list ten steps necessary in the course of human evolution, each of which, is so improbable that if left to happen by chance alone, the sun would have ceased to be a main sequence star and would have incinerated the earth. They estimate that the odds of the evolution (by chance) of the human genome is somewhere between 4 to the negative 180th power, to the 110,000th power, and 4 to the negative 360th power, to the 110,000th power. Therefore, if evolution did occur, it literally would have been a miracle and evidence for the existence of God.” - William Lane Craig - If Human Evolution Did Occur It Was A Miracle - video http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GUxm8dXLRpA
Thirdly, we now have scientific evidence that the earth and solar system were purposely intended from the creation of the universe itself. Specifically, there are now found to be 'anomalies' in the Cosmic Background Radiation that 'strangely' line up with the earth and solar system,
Large-scale alignments from WMAP and Planck – 2013 We revisit the alignments of the largest structures observed in the cosmic microwave background (CMB) using the seven and nine-year WMAP and first-year Planck data releases. The observed alignments — the quadrupole with the octopole and their joint alignment with the direction of our motion with respect to the CMB (the dipole direction) and the geometry of the Solar System (defined by the Ecliptic plane) — are generally in good agreement with results from the previous WMAP data releases.,,, both the WMAP and Planck data confirm the alignments of the largest observable CMB modes in the Universe. http://arxiv.org/abs/1311.4562
Here is an excellent clip from the documentary “The Principle” that explains, in an easy to understand manner, how these ‘anomalies’ that line up with the earth and solar system were found, via ‘averaging out’, in the tiny temperature variations in the CMBR data.
Cosmic Microwave Background Proves Intelligent Design (disproves Copernican principle) (clip of “The Principle”) – video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=htV8WTyo4rw
In other words, the “tiny temperature variations” in the CMBR, (and even the largest scale structures in the universe itself), reveal teleology, (i.e. a goal directed purpose, a plan, a reason), that specifically included the earth from the start. ,,, The earth, (and solar system), from what our best science can now tell us, is not some random cosmic fluke as atheists had presupposed.
Genesis 1:1-3 In the beginning God created the heaven and the earth. And the earth was without form, and void; and darkness was upon the face of the deep. And the Spirit of God moved upon the face of the waters. And God said, Let there be light: and there was light.
Fourthly, the fact that General Relativity, Quantum Mechanics, and the fact that life exists at the geometric mean of the universe, all provide powerful evidence that overturns the Copernican Principle and/or the Principle of mediocrity, and thus reveals that man as not nearly as inconsequential in this universe as atheists have presupposed,
Overturning of the Copernican Principle by both General Relativity and Quantum Mechanics https://uncommondescent.com/intelligent-design/we-are-invited-to-consider-a-simpler-perspective-on-the-laws-of-physics/#comment-680427
Of humorous final note. Here is a humorous episode about an oh so ‘coincidental’ phone call at SETI, during the filming of a documentary, with very interesting timing as to its occurrence
Tyson: "Their (SETIs) goal is the ultimate prize in the life finding game. Someone out there we can talk to." Shostak: "Nothing to do but sit here and wait for them to call." (And exactly at that moment when Shostak says that, the phone rings right behind Shostak). Shostak: "And on cue they've called." - quotes as stated at 11:22 minute mark - Where are the Aliens Origins Nova Neil Degrasse Tyson - video - https://youtu.be/t1ReViBCDOs?t=667
As a Christian who has seen a few answered prayers during my life, I find it strange that the SETI (Search for Extra-Terrestrial Intelligence) organization spends millions of dollars vainly searching for signs of extra-terrestrial life in this universe, when all anyone has to do to make solid contact with THE primary 'extra-terrestrial intelligence' of the entire universe is to pray with a sincere heart. God, who created heaven and earth, certainly does not hide from those who sincerely need and seek Him.
Isaiah 45:18-19 For thus says the Lord, who created the heavens, who is God, who formed the earth and made it, who established it, who did not create it in vain, who formed it to be inhabited: “I am the Lord, and there is no other. I have not spoken in secret, in a dark place of the earth; I did not say to the seed of Jacob, ‘seek me in vain’; I, the Lord speak righteousness, I declare things that are right.”
I would hope to think that personally communicating with the Creator of the universe would be a lot more exciting for people than not communicating with some little green men that in all realistic probability, given naturalism, do not even exist. Here are some examples of the different ways God speaks into different people’s lives:
Good Morning America "GodWinks - When God let’s you know He’s thinking of you" - video http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UYJRddhzFG4
bornagain77_{November 29, 2019
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PS This article touches on many of the topics we discuss here. Vividvividbleau_{November 28, 2019
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Way off topic but this is a great article, long but worth the read. Really a defense of liberalism in the classic sense. Happy Thanksgiving https://quillette.com/2019/11/27/thanksgiving-a-uniquely-american-tradition/ Vividvividbleau_{November 28, 2019
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ScuzzaMan- The Bible has passages that relate to E.T.'s. Under a generic ID theory the odds of it being so approach 1. From "the Privileged Palnet"- Chapter 16 offers a “Skeptical Rejoinder” answering 14 objections. Number 14 is:
14) You haven’t shown that ETs don’t exist. “This is true, but we did not intend to. In fact, ironically, design might even improve the possibility of ETs.”
ET_{November 28, 2019
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ET, from a Christian perspective that is theologically dubious, tending towards highly improbable. Under generic ID theory it is simply unknown and unknowable.ScuzzaMan_{November 28, 2019
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Again- In an Intelligently Designed universe- or one Created by God- it is a given there is more than us, that there is life on other planets. And given the evidence it seems that some of them have visited us.ET_{November 28, 2019
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When it comes to alien life of any kind, I'm a Schrodinger's Cat kind of person. Life does and does not exist, neither of which have any real bearing as to the reason to colonize the moon, Mars, the upper atmosphere of Venus, and beyond. There will be another Carrington and colonization will enable us to save as much data as possible. The internet is the Great Library of Alexandria, and the Carrington will be the fire to destroy knowledge. Another rock is going to fall out of the sky and bring about the next ice age. Yellowstone will erupt, which will also bring about another ice age. Without colonization as a priority of western nations, it's just a matter of time before knowledge becomes lost and mankind is set back again.BobRyan_{November 28, 2019
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I think it might be remotely possible to find other life in the solar system. Very remote. And given the sheer size of the universe, it wouldn’t surprise me if life was out their. Even intelligent life. But given the distances involved, I think it highly unlikely that we will ever detect them. Is that reason enough to stop looking? I can’t answer that.Ed George_{November 27, 2019
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