Recently, we here at UD saw that global trend lines are curving over from exponential growth in new Covid-19 cases. Likewise, health authorities have been talking of the US and the UK peaking in perhaps ten days. Where I am, we are still growing: one, two, five, nine total. (And no, Black the Ripper is not credibly a Covid-19 case.)
Here’s a graphic that gives pause, with labelled phases — recall, the crest of new infections is the inflexion point on the growing arm of the S-curve of cumulative cases:
But, the further consideration is, onward waves triggered by fresh outbreaks or new strains once lock-downs . . . which cannot be long sustained . . . are relaxed:
These are schematic, here is a plot of the 1918 – 20 Spanish Flu’s waves, echoed in the death rates:
The peaking is coming through in how doubling times for cases to date are stretching:
A similar pattern is there in the 3-day rolling average, though US is spiking up again:
Let me add, daily cases log-lin curve:
So, it looks like we are going peak, though the peak may be more of a plateau before it falls.
Then, the next challenge is to find a more sustainable strategy than economy lock downs. Hopefully, treatments and vaccinations will make the difference, the sooner the better. END