Tracking Covid-19 Apr 3 . . . are we peaking (for this wave)?

_{kairosfocus

April 3, 2020

Defending our Civilization, Medicine, News Highlights, rhetoric, Sci-Tech watch}

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As we continue to track, let some graphs tell a story, first up is Euro-CDC:

That looks like a peaking, certainly it is not exponential surging in new cases. World in Data, on a 3-day, rolling avg will smoothen, highlighting key countries (including the USA):

That looks like a flattening, trending to turning over on the driving impulse. Let’s see doubling times, which will track comparable exponential growth:

Those were in the 2 – 3 day band previously.

Now, the by country log-lin deaths, with the same 2,3,5 day doubling time rays since five cases as previous:

Likewise, per country log-lin cumulative cases, with the same usual 2,3, 5 and 10 day doubling time from 100 cases rays:

We see a consistent message: while things are bad, we seem to be going peak for at least this wave.

Qualified good news, we are beginning to win this campaign, though we continue to pay a terrible price. Thank God. END

Comments

F/N: ZJB has confirmed the passing. Cause is not plausibly COVID-19. KFkairosfocus_{April 7, 2020
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JVL, news to me, but I don't track that sort of thing. The list of cases here is a closely guarded secret compounded by medical confidentiality. Rumours abound. KF PS: Did search, found DM: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-8193925/Rapper-Black-Ripper-dead-32-Tributes-pour-marijuana-advocate.html The licence plate in the April 1 2020 photo is definitly from here and the house is the right sort of"wall" house, in a plausible colour. The stone wall is right too. West is definitely a Montserrat name, he is wearing a Montserrat tee shirt. Off to the left, that looks like Katy Hill in the background, seen from somewhere St Johnnish. I recognise the man in the black tee shirt. The car licence number is right and I think I may have seen that car on the road. If he was here April 1, most likely, he would still be here. So, I fear, your story is plausible. I will come back as more develops.kairosfocus_{April 7, 2020
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Kairosfocus: Just found out, via my son, that British rap artist Black the Ripper died yesterday on Montserrat! No details of the cause of his death have been released yet . . . was he one of the COVID-19 cases?JVL_{April 7, 2020
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DS, 118, Pardon, I decided to wait overnight. I think you know I live on an island with a volcano that has been eruptive in various ways since 1995. What you likely would not know is how that volcano literally rewrote the book and repeatedly caught us all by surprise. As a result, it taught us some sharp lessons about what Professor Okada of Japan termed the tetrahedral model [better, framework]. Namely, that the scientists [experts], officialdom, media [public and independent] and people exist in a mutually dependent framework. As a consequence, there has to be a building up of social capital through truthfulness, respect and openness ahead of time. That way, when the day of hard decisions comes, there will be the mutuality that allows for a critical mass of support. In that context, a point Vivid emphasised above comes home to roost. Scientific knowledge [and in fact any empirical, inductive knowledge] is in a sense provisional, open to correction especially of explanatory or modelling constructs. That is, while it is legitimate and commonplace to speak of knowledge, it is in a soft sense that means, responsibly warranted, reliable and credibly true belief. But that is not equal to incorrigible certainty. As a result it progresses, is revised incrementally and is subject to replacement through paradigm-shifting revolutions, a context in which "consensus" or "expertise" are inevitably relativised. Indeed, scientific disagreements are legendary. As a result, especially in a fluid, dangerous situation, we have to learn how to make collective decisions under risk and uncertainty. Risk, here, implies ability to specify a reasonably expected span of possibilities and to assign some sort of quantification, however crude. Uncertainty obtains when we don't even know that much. Hence, Donald Rumsfeld's notorious known knowns, known unknowns and unknown unknowns. Frankly, we have had more of the last here than we like to admit over the past quarter century. One of the techniques developed to replace "consensus of experts/scientists" was expert elicitation as a way to characterise span of outcomes and estimates of likelihood. In that context, contributions were and are calibrated on a test of expertise. It has reduced but has not eliminated degree of disagreement and controversy. If -- God forbid -- another partial evacuation had to be called during this period of lockdown, it would spark controversy. All of that goes back to the point that the day of blind trust in ex cathedra announcement of experts is over. So is the day of pretence of "consensus" of experts [maintained by the no true Sassenach fallacy, doubtless]. Instead, we proceed by mutuality and critical mass informed by prudence and sound risk taking guided by SWOT analysis on good environment scanning. Strategies should build on strengths, capitalise on opportunities [moderated by mutuality in community!], counter threats, compensate for and where possible eventually correct weaknesses. Much harder, but in the long haul sounder. In this case, we must realise that urgency and loss of life in quantity are driving factors. On evidence from the post-SARS literature of 15 years ago, HCQ should have been tested as an antiviral in accord with the usual double blind, cross-treatment, control studies with due accounting through ANOVA etc. That was not done, a significant opportunity was lost. (And BTW, here, we were warned in a paper about a decade before the event . . . ) In our situation, prudence requires decision informed by balance. Where, there is growing evidence that HCQ and Z-Pac with Zn supplements is a credible treatment, albeit not risk-free. There are hints that Z-Pac can be substituted for successfully. For example, Doxycycline. That evidence does not come from large scale, prolonged, hugely expensive and bureaucratically cumbersome studies. However, it is demonstrated repeatedly that HCQ is an antiviral in vitro, in relevant tissue samples and relevant concentrations. It acts chemically as an antiviral, by one or more of several suggested mechanisms. In that context, after 65 years of use, dosage, side effects, risks, toxic effects etc are fairly well understood. So it is actually no great surprise that it is having an effect clinically. In that context, approval for emergency, compassionate and exploratory use have been granted by the FDA even as studies proceed. I imagine, use with signoff on risks [similar to for surgery] would be reasonable. What is not reasonable is to suggest that there is no credible evidence or that disagreement and objection should paralyse us. That, is what would be imprudent. KFkairosfocus_{April 7, 2020
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Vivid, that's excellent news. Meanwhile, we here are on tenterhooks (and request prayers) as we learn that not only was UK PM Boris Johnson taken into hospital even as Good Queen Elizabeth spoke to the Commonwealth but has now been transferred into ICU. We pray that things work out well. KFkairosfocus_{April 7, 2020
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She added more color on TV tonight about the hassle she had to go through because the Governor of Michigan had banned HQ. She was lucky to get it when she did and she credits Trump for that as well.. https://www.freep.com/story/news/local/michigan/detroit/2020/04/06/democrat-karen-whitsett-coronavirus-hydroxychloroquine-trump/2955430001/ Vividvividbleau_{April 6, 2020
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DS, are you aware that the FDA Fauci works with has given two successive tiers of approvals? KFkairosfocus_{April 6, 2020
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Port restrictions and canceled flights are straining the ability to replace seafarers on board ships, further weakening global supply chains already snarled by the coronavirus pandemic. Hubs like Singapore, Abu Dhabi and Shanghai have halted most crew transfers, while global lockdowns have complicated travel from the Philippines, which supplies about a quarter of the world’s seafarers. At risk is the flow of goods like food, medicine and energy via commercial shipping, which accounts for about 80% of global trade. While unseen by most consumers, restrictions on crews are among the unprecedented challenges wrought by the virus, which has ground major economies to a halt.rhampton7_{April 6, 2020
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KF, Isn't it prudent for me to admit I don't know what the risks and benefits are, and defer to people who have decades of experience with these issues? Perhaps to the guy on the president's coronavirus response team, in fact?daveS_{April 6, 2020
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JT, you have an urgent, crisis situation, where the consistent report is that the desired tests will take far longer than the peak of fresh cases and life-threatening ones. In that situation too late is as good as never. At the same time, we have at least 15 years published record that shows broad-base antiviral action in relevant tissues, in plausible concentrations deriving from reasonable doses. In that context, significant studies in the clinic show that in about 5 days, HCQ and Z-pac together [with Zn a relevant supplement] clear infections, with good reliability. This points to a need for early intervention before life-threatening complications emerge. It suggests, frontline health workers likely should be on preventative doses. Yes, side effects are possible, but there is nearly 70 years of experience in hand. This calls, not for skepticism but prudent decision in the face of a less than ideal choice to use a drug vs facing, credibly, a surge of preventable deaths. This is battlefield decision-making not idealised decisions where postponement has no great cost. That choice is in material part being clouded through a highly polarised climate that taints just about any policy issue. As I have pointed out, there has been a squandering of vital social capital. KFkairosfocus_{April 6, 2020
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JT, Thanks, that's what I thought.daveS_{April 6, 2020
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@Ed George Do you keep mantaining that the death ratio assiciated to the flu is higher than the death ratio associated to COVID-19? Let me remind you that you are a known liar.Truthfreedom_{April 6, 2020
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KF, it might be of interest to you that India has stopped the shipment of drugs, including chloroquine, outside the country. In a world that relies on a global supply chain, actions like this and Trump’s will only cause more harm.Ed George_{April 6, 2020
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@DaveS I read less than half the comments here, but I don’t recall seeing anybody talk about delaying the drug beyond it being shown to have a fix. What we want is reliable data that it actually treats this disease before we keep taking it from lupus patients etc and giving it to people and causing possible heart attack type side effects. The WHO now has a study that should produce reliable data, which we haven’t seen so far. Abandoning proper skepticism in order to believe whatever Trump says is dangerous nonsense.Jim Thibodeau_{April 6, 2020
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KF, Thanks, I don't see any references in your above posts to specific people _here_ being so affected by TDS that they want the deployment of promising drugs to be delayed unnecessarily. Not that you can't find some on Twitter.daveS_{April 6, 2020
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Bob “The prediction seems to be that the peak will be in about 2 weeks, so about half of those deaths (at best) will be in the next couple of weeks” So I think the US deaths currently are approx 9k so we’re looking at 90k in deaths in next few weeks.? That would be about 8k a day. Pretty daunting Vivid .vividbleau_{April 6, 2020
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BO'H: It seems the global peaking has already begun, per the tracking plots above. KFkairosfocus_{April 6, 2020
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PPS: Notice, Plato in The Republic, reflecting the subtext of how three years of plague wrecked Athens' capability to win the Peloponnesian war, in part by severely damaging the social fabric:
It is not too hard to figure out that our civilisation is in deep trouble and is most likely headed for shipwreck. (And of course, that sort of concern is dismissed as “apocalyptic,” or neurotic pessimism that refuses to pause and smell the roses.) Plato’s Socrates spoke to this sort of situation, long since, in the ship of state parable in The Republic, Bk VI:
>>[Soc.] I perceive, I said, that you are vastly amused at having plunged me into such a hopeless discussion; but now hear the parable, and then you will be still more amused at the meagreness of my imagination: for the manner in which the best men are treated in their own States is so grievous that no single thing on earth is comparable to it; and therefore, if I am to plead their cause, I must have recourse to fiction, and put together a figure made up of many things, like the fabulous unions of goats and stags which are found in pictures. Imagine then a fleet or a ship in which there is a captain [–> often interpreted, ship’s owner] who is taller and stronger than any of the crew, but he is a little deaf and has a similar infirmity in sight, and his knowledge of navigation is not much better. [= The people own the community and in the mass are overwhelmingly strong, but are ill equipped on the whole to guide, guard and lead it] The sailors are quarrelling with one another about the steering – every one is of opinion that he has a right to steer [= selfish ambition to rule and dominate], though he has never learned the art of navigation and cannot tell who taught him or when he learned, and will further assert that it cannot be taught, and they are ready to cut in pieces any one who says the contrary. They throng about the captain, begging and praying him to commit the helm to them [–> kubernetes, steersman, from which both cybernetics and government come in English]; and if at any time they do not prevail, but others are preferred to them, they kill the others or throw them overboard [ = ruthless contest for domination of the community], and having first chained up the noble captain’s senses with drink or some narcotic drug [ = manipulation and befuddlement, cf. the parable of the cave], they mutiny and take possession of the ship and make free with the stores; thus, eating and drinking, they proceed on their voyage in such a manner as might be expected of them [–> Cf here Luke’s subtle case study in Ac 27]. Him who is their partisan and cleverly aids them in their plot for getting the ship out of the captain’s hands into their own whether by force or persuasion [–> Nihilistic will to power on the premise of might and manipulation making ‘right’ ‘truth’ ‘justice’ ‘rights’ etc], they compliment with the name of sailor, pilot, able seaman, and abuse the other sort of man, whom they call a good-for-nothing; but that the true pilot must pay attention to the year and seasons and sky and stars and winds, and whatever else belongs to his art, if he intends to be really qualified for the command of a ship, and that he must and will be the steerer, whether other people like or not-the possibility of this union of authority with the steerer’s art has never seriously entered into their thoughts or been made part of their calling. Now in vessels which are in a state of mutiny and by sailors who are mutineers, how will the true pilot be regarded? Will he not be called by them a prater, a star-gazer, a good-for-nothing? [Ad.] Of course, said Adeimantus. [Soc.] Then you will hardly need, I said, to hear the interpretation of the figure, which describes the true philosopher in his relation to the State [ --> here we see Plato's philosoppher-king emerging]; for you understand already. [Ad.] Certainly. [Soc.] Then suppose you now take this parable to the gentleman who is surprised at finding that philosophers have no honour in their cities; explain it to him and try to convince him that their having honour would be far more extraordinary. [Ad.] I will. [Soc.] Say to him, that, in deeming the best votaries of philosophy to be useless to the rest of the world, he is right; but also tell him to attribute their uselessness to the fault of those who will not use them, and not to themselves. The pilot should not humbly beg the sailors to be commanded by him –that is not the order of nature; neither are ‘the wise to go to the doors of the rich’ –the ingenious author of this saying told a lie –but the truth is, that, when a man is ill, whether he be rich or poor, to the physician he must go, and he who wants to be governed, to him who is able to govern. [--> the issue of competence and character as qualifications to rule] The ruler who is good for anything ought not to beg his subjects to be ruled by him [ --> down this road lies the modern solution: a sound, well informed people will seek sound leaders, who will not need to manipulate or bribe or worse, and such a ruler will in turn be checked by the soundness of the people, cf. US DoI, 1776]; although the present governors of mankind are of a different stamp; they may be justly compared to the mutinous sailors, and the true helmsmen to those who are called by them good-for-nothings and star-gazers. [Ad.] Precisely so, he said. [Soc] For these reasons, and among men like these, philosophy, the noblest pursuit of all, is not likely to be much esteemed by those of the opposite faction [--> the sophists, the Demagogues, Alcibiades and co, etc]; not that the greatest and most lasting injury is done to her by her opponents, but by her own professing followers, the same of whom you suppose the accuser to say, that the greater number of them are arrant rogues, and the best are useless; in which opinion I agreed [--> even among the students of the sound state (here, political philosophy and likely history etc.), many are of unsound motivation and intent, so mere education is not enough, character transformation is critical]. [Ad.] Yes. [Soc.] And the reason why the good are useless has now been explained? [Ad.] True. [Soc.] Then shall we proceed to show that the corruption of the majority is also unavoidable [--> implies a need for a corruption-restraining minority providing proverbial salt and light, cf. Ac 27, as well as justifying a governing structure turning on separation of powers, checks and balances], and that this is not to be laid to the charge of philosophy any more than the other? [Ad.] By all means. [Soc.] And let us ask and answer in turn, first going back to the description of the gentle and noble nature.[ -- > note the character issue] Truth, as you will remember, was his leader, whom he followed always and in all things [ --> The spirit of truth as a marker]; failing in this, he was an impostor, and had no part or lot in true philosophy [--> the spirit of truth is a marker, for good or ill] . . . >>
(There is more than an echo of this in Acts 27, a real world case study. [Luke, a physician, was an educated Greek with a taste for subtle references.] This blog post, on soundness in policy, will also help)
kairosfocus_{April 6, 2020
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DS & RH7, The issue is as I pointed out in 66 above, which should be addressed substantially. There is indubitably a deep polarisation compounded by the substitution of a false virtue, hyperskepticism trying to steer the rational soul in the place of true prudence. As a result, we have squandered social capital and now face a cacophony of polarised, imprudent voices and views leading to gross, widespread imprudence. As just one illustration, in any reasonable world, influenza would bbe instantly recognised as a comparative yardstick, and the high numbers dying of this per year would be seen as a sober warning on how a novel, highly contagious virus could spiral out of control, with vulnerable groups being at high risk of death. So, responsible, even painful, prudent measures are appropriate. The debate we should be having on HCQ et al is why such were not properly tested and approved as broadly acting antivirals over a decade ago. Especially, for repurposed, cost-effective treatments; post SARS1. That, such is not the debate speaks to the toxic atmosphere that has been cultivated, tainting and twisting everything. In that context of polarisation, loss of trust, wrecked hard-won social capital, it then becomes almost impossible to reasonably discuss any serious matter. Democratic decision-making is undermined decisively and folly is in the driver's seat. That's a civilisational challenge and it is particularly acute in the USA, which you have heard me say ever so many times, is in low grade 4th gen, agit-prop, media amplified street theatre and lawfare tactics dominated civil war. In that context, it is only to be expected that a serious issue or a crisis will expose the consequences of the folly of wrecking hard won social capital. KF PS: Mr Trump is not the cause, he is a sign. His Presidency is the result of a hinterland peasant revolt by ballot box, directly parallel to the premiership of Mr Johnson in the UK. The despising of hoi polloi by those who imagine themselves their betters is a key part of what is going wrong civilisationally. That some are already thinking towards how they can impeach him a second time [refusing to see how abuse of policing and intelligence agencies and courts, resort to star chamber tactics that violate natural justice etc are ruinous] speaks volumes. Worse, some seem to be quietly hoping that recession consequent on strong measures to address epidemic will tip the balance to remove him from office, which is a clear subtext in the concerns of many. Others fail to see that ministering to the soul in a crisis is an essential service [some, imagine we have no souls], but should be balanced with due consideration of contagiousness. The mutual suspicion then threatens to spiral utterly out of control, reflecting precisely why we need to highlight the problem.kairosfocus_{April 6, 2020
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Vivibleau @ 100 - The prediction seems to be that the peak will be in about 2 weeks, so about half of those deaths (at best) will be in the next couple of weeks. But keep an eye on this - New York is predicted to peak this week, so if they don't, it means things will be worse.Bob O'H_{April 6, 2020
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RH7, the sorts of studies already done manifestly demonstrate efficacy in well proved drugs with highly manageable side effects shown by their longstanding common use. While onward double blind placebo-based control tests may be helpful academically, that does not answer to the challenge of facing a global pandemic with up to ~10% risk of death for patients with vulnerable preconditions. Under those circumstances, with what we know and can readily access, it would be to threaten lives needlessly to treat with sugar pills. So, the challenge we actually face is not credible warrant but duty to the inherently valuable. Hyperskepticism manifestly fails, we must instead restore the true charioteer of the rational soul, prudence. KFkairosfocus_{April 6, 2020
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BTW I think we will be seeing parts of our economy opening up before the current 30 day mitigation effort ends, I'm thinking sometime in the next two weeks. Vividvividbleau_{April 6, 2020
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Bob, I don’t dispute what you say but those numbers have been repeatedly given and I don’t know what time frame they are referring to. If it’s for the next few weeks we should start seeing a big spike in the order of about 90k to reach the 100k mark. Vividvividbleau_{April 6, 2020
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vividbleau @ 100 Those numbers are only accurate if China is telling the truth. China lies about everything. They skew the results to make it appear higher than it actually is. Influenza does not require any preconditions to be lethal, unlike COVID-19. This is the reason influenza is more deadly than COVID-19. Had Dr. Li been effectively silenced by the Chinese, no one would be talking about it right now. It mimics the flu with less deadly results.BobRyan_{April 6, 2020
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Question to all I’ve seen the number between 100,000 to 200,000 deaths predicted to happen in US. Is this supposed to happen over the next couple of weeks? Vividvividbleau_{April 6, 2020
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Gottlieb, who led the FDA under President Trump until 2019, said a "massive surveillance system" would allow infections to be detected quickly and said the country should have such a system in place. "We'll be able to identify cases when there are small outbreaks in the fall and use case-based intervention," he said. Gottlieb said that until there is a drug to prevent infection in those who are exposed to the coronavirus or treat those who get it, the economy is unlikely to return to normal. "Absent that, this is going to be an 80% economy," he said. "There are things that are not coming back. People are not going to crowd into conferences. They're not going to crowd into arenas. The marginal customer is not going back to movie theaters and cruises and Disneyland. And we need to accept that. Now, what changes that equation is technology. But we need a deliberate approach to getting that technology quickly."rhampton7_{April 5, 2020
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Nov 2019: 62% of people who approve of the job Donald Trump is doing as president say they can't think of anything he could do that would cause him to lose their support, according to a Monmouth University poll published Tuesday. The sample size for the question was 401.rhampton7_{April 5, 2020
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But perhaps more worrying for Biden and Democrats than the narrowing gap is the apparent lack of enthusiasm among the former vice president's supporters. Eighty-six percent of Trump's backers say they are enthusiastic about their candidate, while just 74 percent of Biden supporters say the same. And nearly twice as many likely Trump voters say they are "very enthusiastic," 55 percent, compared to Biden backers, just 28 percent.rhampton7_{April 5, 2020
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Sweden’s herd immunity approach update: The Prime Minister of Sweden has issued a stark warning to his citizens, telling them to prepare for innumerable deaths following the country's laid back attitude to Covid-19. Many bars, eateries, schools and office buildings have remained open, with groups of up 500 people being permissible. Only the most vulnerable citizens have been encouraged to self-isolate at home. However, as Sweden's death toll topped 401, and with 6,830 confirmed infections, the tone has shifted. Sizes of gatherings have been hacked down from 499 to 49, and bars and eateries have been instructed only to offer table service.rhampton7_{April 5, 2020
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We should have some much more reliable data soon. This study isn’t double blinded, but it’s going to be better than anything previous. https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/who-launches-global-megatrial-four-most-promising-coronavirus-treatments#Jim Thibodeau_{April 5, 2020
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