Tracking Covid-19 Apr 3 . . . are we peaking (for this wave)?

_{kairosfocus
April 3, 2020

Defending our Civilization, Medicine, News Highlights, rhetoric, Sci-Tech watch

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Defending our Civilization
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rhetoric
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As we continue to track, let some graphs tell a story, first up is Euro-CDC:

That looks like a peaking, certainly it is not exponential surging in new cases. World in Data, on a 3-day, rolling avg will smoothen, highlighting key countries (including the USA):

That looks like a flattening, trending to turning over on the driving impulse. Let’s see doubling times, which will track comparable exponential growth:

Those were in the 2 – 3 day band previously.

Now, the by country log-lin deaths, with the same 2,3,5 day doubling time rays since five cases as previous:

Likewise, per country log-lin cumulative cases, with the same usual 2,3, 5 and 10 day doubling time from 100 cases rays:

We see a consistent message: while things are bad, we seem to be going peak for at least this wave.

Qualified good news, we are beginning to win this campaign, though we continue to pay a terrible price. Thank God. END

Comments

@61 ET:
Maybe now evos will understand that natural selection is not a biologically creative process.
Maybe. Just maybe. The less jihadist ones could start to see the pattern:
Now, Lynch is no creationist; he is an academic biologist who fails to find compelling evidence for natural selection, preferring instead to consider other models for evolution based on non-adaptive evolutionary processes. If Lynch is right about the lack of a firm evidentiary basis for natural selection, how do we account for the fact that natural selection has been—and continues to be—promoted as the most well-established scientific theory ever devised (or as the greatest single idea anyone has ever had, as Daniel Dennett calls it)? Is it possible that natural selection is more philosophical dogma than evidence-based science? https://www.luther.edu/religion/department/news/?story_id=588693
Truthfreedom_{April 5, 2020
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Trump had five MAGA rallies in five different states in January. If he had time to do that, he had time to do his job. If he wasn’t capable of doing his job, he should’ve resigned. “The buck stops here.” -Harry TrumanJim Thibodeau_{April 5, 2020
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@58 Kairosfocus:
... just as the epidemic was gathering steam to go global?
Es George was f***** his wife while the pandemic was gathering steam. :)
What I don’t understand is that the death rate associated with the flu is much greater than the caronavirus, yet we don’t close the borders because of it. EG
Nothing to see here. It's not an iceberg, people. Now move on. https://uncommondescent.com/design-inference/the-spreading-of-corona-virus/Truthfreedom_{April 5, 2020
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Maybe now evos will understand that natural selection is not a biologically creative process. I doubt it, but it could happen.ET_{April 5, 2020
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Capt. Brett Crozier is positive for COVID-19. Best wishes for a full recovery.Jim Thibodeau_{April 5, 2020
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Rhampton7, you cite three church leaders that appear to be behaving irresponsibly. What point are you trying to make? Are you suggesting some Christians are stupid and/or irresponsible? I don't think anyone will argue with that. Are you suggesting that Christians are uniquely stupid and/or irresponsible? If so, do you realize you are extrapolating to a conclusion about nearly 2 billion peopled based on a sample size of 3?Barry Arrington_{April 5, 2020
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RH7, you mean, the much lambasted and reviled Trump and Pence, the former impeached just as the epidemic was gathering steam to go global? Do you really understand what burned up social capital and destroyed credibility look like? There is no trust, there are serious gulfs in communication and perception, there are divided counsels, the voices that would be elders in the gates aren't there. And yes, there is a good amount of bad theology and some serious want of prudence on the part of too many church leaders, but that is also in a context of such a polarised and chaotic communication context that the sobering balance needed now isn't there. That's what the sort of low grade civil war I have warned about looks like. KF PS: Had it not been for miracles of guidance and healing in answer to prayer, likely I would not be here.kairosfocus_{April 5, 2020
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Sir, your wife is illusorily dead thanks to COVID-19. My illusory condolences. At least she has given you a child to help spreading your selfish genes. Pray Darw'.Truthfreedom_{April 5, 2020
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If reality is an illusion (evolutionarily speaking): Are death and suffering illusions too?Truthfreedom_{April 5, 2020
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King's Trail Cowboy Church in Whitewright is staying open and took off their front doors to welcome anyone at any time of day. "It was a packed house, you could hear the singing, you could hear everything from outside," said Whitewrite resident Ed Thayer. "they're just being so blatantly irresponsible and have no regard for the rest of this community." Texas Gov. Greg Abbott's executive order, GA-14, states that religious services in Texas are considered essential services and can remain open as long as they follow social distancing guidelines from President Trump and the CDC. Several of the church's own videos on youtube show service as normal, without following social distancing guidelines. "If something happens with that large of a group, it would overwhelm the healthcare system," said Amanda Ortez, spokesperson for the Grayson County Health Department.rhampton7_{April 5, 2020
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Maryville Baptist Church has stated on its website that Sunday school is scheduled at 10 a.m. with church service at 11 a.m. The church also plans to hold a youth led service Sunday night and morning worship on Easter Sunday. The church's Facebook page also shows choir members not social distancing. WDRB has a crew outside of the church. Two greeters are reportedly at the door as members, adults and kids, enter inside. Some are also shaking hands. On Friday, Gov. Beshear also reiterated the need for churches and other houses of worship to forego holding in-person services, following reports that some intended to continue hosting congregations. “If you are still holding mass gatherings, church or otherwise, you are spreading the coronavirus and you are likely causing the death of Kentuckians. It’s that clear,”rhampton7_{April 5, 2020
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However, the pastor at Center Arena Church told FOX 35 News that he runs a "healing ministry" and some of his parishioners need physical touch. "That's what God has called on me to do. I am not defiant. I am obeying God. For the well of people that are desperate at this time. I am abiding as best I can with the regulations," the pastor said. "Most of them that are complaining, don't come here. So, what I would say to them is mind your own business."rhampton7_{April 5, 2020
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Can’t blame the media when President Trump, VP Pence and a lot of Republican Governors have been telling us for weeks to stay home.rhampton7_{April 5, 2020
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RH7, it is sad that significant numbers of church leaders seem to be exposing people needlessly. However, ask yourself something on why they would so disregard the assertions and warnings in the media. The answer is going to come back, in key part, that the major media houses have destroyed their credibility through their naked ideological and partisan stridency. People tend not to trust liars and slanderers. In short, yet another sign of the consequences of foolishly burning up social capital to advance agendas through ruthless agit prop. We need to start asking, who has credibility to be heard? My immediate answer is, someone like a Franklyn Graham or maybe a Jerry Falwell Jr. Both of whom were just attacked in the media, one for using Samaritan's Purse [more usually seen in famine and war zones] to set up a small field hospital in NYC. The other, for trying to allow some students to shelter in place in his Uni campus. KFkairosfocus_{April 5, 2020
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JT, the tracking evidence I am seeing points to peaking now. It seems likely that HCQ and Z-Pac [with Zn supplements?] will be treatments of choice and that there will be 1/4 billion HCQ tabs by middle of the month. That's a US$20 per case treatment, many of the alternatives are in the US$ 1,000's. Ventilators will come along too and it is predictable that mobilised pharmaceuticals are going to crank out needed drugs. While for next 'flu season a wave is likely, by then there may even be a vaccine. In short, we are in a world war with SAR2, but it looks winnable here. KFkairosfocus_{April 5, 2020
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life has no higher purpose than to perpetuate the survival of DNA…
Sorry SARS-CoV-2, you are an RNA virus. No purpose for you according to Dawkins the imbecile. Booo-hooo. :)Truthfreedom_{April 5, 2020
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To alleviate the suffering, let's read some words of atheist wisdom:
"The human race is just a chemical scum on a moderate-sized planet, orbiting around a very average star in the outer suburb of one among a hundred billion galaxies. We are so insignificant…" Stephen Hawking

The universe and life are pointless… In a YouTube video he states that evolution “says that there is no special purpose for your life, because it is a naturalistic philosophy. We have no more extrinsic purpose than a squirrel or an armadillo.” Jerry Coyne, the dim-witted biologist

Humans have always wondered about the meaning of life…life has no higher purpose than to perpetuate the survival of DNA…life has no design, no purpose, no evil and no good, nothing but blind pitiless indifference. Richard Dawkins

That Man is the product of causes that had no prevision of the end they were achieving; that his origin, his growth, his hopes and fears, his loves and his beliefs, are but the outcome of accidental collocations of atoms; that no fire, no heroism, no intensity of thought and feeling, can preserve individual life beyond the grave. . . Only within the scaffolding of these truths, only on the firm foundation of unyielding despair, can the soul’s habitation henceforth be safely built. Bertrand Russell

“Man is a useless passion. It is meaningless that we live and it is meaningless that we die.” Jean-Paul Sartre
Truthfreedom_{April 5, 2020
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As terrible as this virus is, it’s probably going to dip in the summer, and then come roaring back in the fall, the experts say.Jim Thibodeau_{April 5, 2020
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The four stages of Covid-19 transmission Stage 1 is the first appearance of the disease through people with a travel history, with everyone contained, their sources traced, and no local spread from those affected. The number of those infected would be quite low at this stage. Stage 2 is local transmission, when those who were infected and have a travel history spread the virus to close friends or family. At this stage, every person who came in contact with the infected can be traced and isolated. Stage 3 is community transmission, when infections happen in public and a source for the virus cannot be traced. At this stage, large geographical lockdowns become important as random members of the community start developing the disease. Stage 4 is when the disease actually becomes an epidemic in a country, such as it was in China, with large numbers of infections and a growing number of deaths with no end in sight. It is then considered to be endemic or now prevalent in the region.rhampton7_{April 5, 2020
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R7
April 4, 2020 at 6:53 pm Now, multiple sources are reporting deepening shortages of the drugs needed to help ventilate patients and keep them sedated.
Surely they could ask Canada and Germany to provide the US with some of these drugs.Ed George_{April 5, 2020
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Israel Police and the IDF are gearing up to enact military-enforced closures on more haredi (ultra-Orthodox) cities and neighborhoods, at the request of the Health Ministry. The move comes just days after the government approved such a closure on Bnei Brak, a haredi city of 200,000, and as the number of cases of coronavirus infection in Israel surged to 7,851. Among the places under discussion are Elad, Modi’in Illit, Migdal Ha’emek and several haredi neighborhoods in Jerusalem and Beit Shemesh. Despite the latest restrictions, one resident who tested positive for coronavirus was found on Thursday night staying at Bnei Brak’s Ponevezh Yeshiva with another 16 men in order to pray. Police intervened.rhampton7_{April 5, 2020
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More than 40 Nebraska doctors are calling on the state's governor, Pete Ricketts (R), to implement stricter social-distancing requirements that "force people to stay at home" amid the outbreak of the novel coronavirus. The physicians warn that novel coronavirus has already begun to strain the capacity of Grand Island's health system. They also caution that the number of people infected with the disease could be much higher in their community than the official tally due to a lack of testing. They wrote that there were 47 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Hall County, where Grand Island is located, as of Saturday morning, up from three just last week. Though because of a lack of testing, Steinke and Crockett warn that thousands could be infected with the virus without knowing it.rhampton7_{April 5, 2020
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Life Tabernacle Church pastor Tony Spell said he was ignoring advice from local officials to not host the service because it would endanger the health of his followers. Asked whether he planned to go forward despite warnings, the pastor replied, “This morning, yes, sir, 10:00 AM. We will actually run our buses. We have 27 buses that we cover in a 50-mile radius of our city. We bring people into the house of God, feed them natural food and spiritual food and then we go right back into our respective places. It takes us about eight hours to run into service on Sunday morning and then we come back in tonight.” “Last Sunday we had 1,800 in attendance. This Sunday with the fear that’s been propagated into the hearts of my people, it may have had an adverse effect with more people than last week,” the pastor replied.rhampton7_{April 5, 2020
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According to Dr Vikas Maurya, HOD, Pulmonology and Senior Consultant (Sleep Medicine and Chest), Fortis Hospital Shalimar Bagh, patients who are symptomatic can have reduced lung capacity after recovering. "As it's a novel virus, we don't know how long it will stay... but with experience with other respiratory viruses like H1N1, it may be there for few weeks to few months or few years depending on the degree of lung involvement and whether patient required ventilator or not," Maurya told IANS. Those corona-patients whose lungs were affected, post recovery, they may face problem in doing earlier routine or simple cardio exercises like running, jogging or brisk walking.rhampton7_{April 5, 2020
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Now, multiple sources are reporting deepening shortages of the drugs needed to help ventilate patients and keep them sedated. Shortages are already evident for albuterol; neuromuscular blockers and sedatives, including fentanyl, midazolam, and propofol; and vasopressors for septic shock, even as orders increase exponentially. Esther Choo, MD, MPH, an emergency physician at Oregon Health & Science University in Portland, tweeted: "Those ventilators can't really be used without a similarly vast supply of coupled medications to get people *on* the vents — and keep them on humanely. Hospitals are already experiencing shortages, before we even hit disease apex."rhampton7_{April 4, 2020
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That's very inconvenient when the feds won't let the states tap into "their stockpile".daveS_{April 4, 2020
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Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear says his administration is doing everything it can to prepare hospitals to be inundated with cases of COVID-19, but nearly every time the state has placed an order for medical protective gear, the federal government has prevented its transfer. “Our biggest problem is that just about every single order that we have our there for PPE, we get a call right when it’s supposed to be shipped and it’s typically the federal government has bought it,” Beshear said during a Saturday press conference. “It’s very hard to buy things when the federal government is there and anytime they want to buy it, they get it first.”rhampton7_{April 4, 2020
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It's the 21st century. Technology can bring the service to you.ET_{April 4, 2020
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A Florida county has backed off enforcing a “safer-at-home” policy forbidding religious services during the coronavirus pandemic after the governor declared such activities as “essential business.” Pastor Rodney Howard-Browne was arrested Monday after dozens of people packed into his church — violating a six-foot social distancing rule encouraged by the White House and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and mandated by Hillsborough County.rhampton7_{April 4, 2020
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Amid the COVID-19 pandemic and as significant religious holidays approach in the coming weeks, Governor Tom Wolf and religious leaders from across the commonwealth are encouraging alternative forms of faith gatherings. Updated guidance notes that while nothing in the stay-at-home order should affect the operation of religious institutions, “Religious leaders are encouraged to find alternatives to in-person gatherings and to avoid endangering their congregants. Individuals should not gather in religious buildings or homes for services or celebrations until the stay-at-home order is lifted.”rhampton7_{April 4, 2020
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