Tracking Covid-19 Apr 3 . . . are we peaking (for this wave)?

_{kairosfocus

April 3, 2020

Defending our Civilization, Medicine, News Highlights, rhetoric, Sci-Tech watch}

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As we continue to track, let some graphs tell a story, first up is Euro-CDC:

That looks like a peaking, certainly it is not exponential surging in new cases. World in Data, on a 3-day, rolling avg will smoothen, highlighting key countries (including the USA):

That looks like a flattening, trending to turning over on the driving impulse. Let’s see doubling times, which will track comparable exponential growth:

Those were in the 2 – 3 day band previously.

Now, the by country log-lin deaths, with the same 2,3,5 day doubling time rays since five cases as previous:

Likewise, per country log-lin cumulative cases, with the same usual 2,3, 5 and 10 day doubling time from 100 cases rays:

We see a consistent message: while things are bad, we seem to be going peak for at least this wave.

Qualified good news, we are beginning to win this campaign, though we continue to pay a terrible price. Thank God. END

Comments

Korea: virus infections due to cluster transmissions have significantly dropped -- by 70 percent when comparing the number of cases in the 11 days before and 11 days after the intensive campaign began on March 22. Some modest clusters of the virus across the country have been contained enough to avoid widespread further transmission, such as at Manmin Central Church, located in southwestern Seoul’s Guro-gu. So far, 45 cases have been reported among followers of the church. But the number could have been much higher if it had not switched its regular services -- where some 4,000 to 5,000 members gather -- into online services.rhampton7_{April 4, 2020
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Depend on? No. Expect them to? Yes. Robert Kraft did it. Mark Cuban is paying all of his employees even though they ain't working. So, yes, I absolutely expect the rich to step up. If they don't then we release the zombies on their properties.ET_{April 4, 2020
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Do you really want to depend on billionaires swooping in with their jets to supply us with critical equipment? It seems like there should be a more rational way to allocate these resources equitably.daveS_{April 4, 2020
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Gordon Sinclair - The Americans (A Canadian's Opinion) Yeah, babyET_{April 4, 2020
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Yes, daves. If we have to import something that means we don't have enough for our own use. And that means we shouldn't be exporting it. Germany has billionaires. They can negotiate with China. China pretty much cleaned out the supply houses all over the world to support their needs. Now it seems they have a surplus.ET_{April 4, 2020
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ET,
Two shipments of protective masks, one scheduled to arrive in Germany, the other in Canada, were diverted to the United States this week under dubious circumstances after the orders had already departed for their destinations. German newspaper Der Tagesspiegel reported 400,000 respiratory masks intended for German police officers were redirected to the US, which is dealing the world's largest outbreak of the novel coronavirus. The delivery from mask manufacturer 3M was shipped from China and reloaded in Bangkok before it was to be transported to Germany by air freight. However, in Bangkok, the shipment was suddenly "redirected" to the US, Berlin police confirmed.
Should the US do this? To masks already en route to Europe? Perhaps Germany will think twice when we ask for their support in the future.daveS_{April 4, 2020
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The US President is looking out for the USA. He knows that the USA can manufacture the goods we get from the other countries- only 5 of which are prominent trade partners- Canada, Mexico, Japan, Germany and China. I am not sure about raw materials, but we do have the capability to replace foreign goods with our own. China just sold 1.2 million N95 masks to a Massachusetts billionaire. We have to import them. So it doesn't make sense to export what we have. If we can import them so can other countries. Your inability to think is appalling.ET_{April 4, 2020
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DaveS
The apparent interception by the US of masks/supplies in transit to our European allies could come back to bite us.
I don’t think there is any question about it. The US imports large quantities of drugs from other countries, drugs that are now in short supply because of the pandemic. If these countries block sales of these drugs to the US in retaliation, it will make things worse. As well, US manufacturers rely on a global supply chain for the production of many things, including PPE and medical equipment. If those supplies are cut off, US production of these items will decline. In the states that border on Canada, a significant number of nurses and other health professionals cross the border from Canada to the US to work. If this was cut off, there would be an impact on some communities close to the border. What Trump doesn’t realize is that his war is against a virus, not against other countries.Ed George_{April 4, 2020
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The NE Patriots' owner, Robert Kraft, just sent the Patriots' jet over to China and picked up 1.2 million N95 masks from China. I am sure that Canada has billionaires that could do the same. Why haven't they? Europe also has billionaires. What are they waiting for?ET_{April 4, 2020
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The apparent interception by the US of masks/supplies in transit to our European allies could come back to bite us.daveS_{April 4, 2020
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KF
JVL, a strategic move, and a lesson if we will heed it. KF
To be fair, China has since sent plane loads of PPE to Canada. I suspect the lesson we will learn from Trump’s recent action is to pass legislation that all public health PPE will have to be purchased from a local (not foreign owned) company.Ed George_{April 4, 2020
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KF, Yes, and it brings a sense of unity, as people around the world are dealing with lockdown. It's a sad time, but normal life still continues. We can enjoy music and other things, we just have to stay indoors a bit more and take precautions.daveS_{April 4, 2020
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DS, while I am utterly unmusical, that does seem to be a contribution. I also see where a Spanish actress has gone back into nursing. KFkairosfocus_{April 4, 2020
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One silver lining of all this is all the musicians, at all levels, who are recording and sharing music while on "lockdown". For example, Matthew McAllister, a brilliant Scottish guitarist, is putting up videos daily. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2xNIylaXwPkdaveS_{April 4, 2020
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BobRyan, I live in a small rural town without much/any gang activity or crime, for that matter. Our friends are going out as little as possible and maintaining physical separation. My wife's church suspended in-person services several weeks ago (churches were contacted by the local health dept very early so they were able to plan for this) and they are encouraging members to take precautions against the spread of the virus. Traffic is even lighter than usual. My neighbor, an elderly woman who lost her husband last year, is visited by her son frequently, but he doesn't enter her house and they stay probably 15 to 20 feet apart. Just a few observations. I'm not saying everyone is taking such measures, but we largely are, in a population that generally doesn't like being told what to do by the government.daveS_{April 4, 2020
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JVL, a strategic move, and a lesson if we will heed it. KFkairosfocus_{April 4, 2020
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Before they publicly acknowledged the severity of the novel coronavirus outbreak, the Chinese government sent instructions to two Chinese real estate development companies in Australia. The order: buy up all of the medical “personal protective equipment” they can and immediately ship them to China. Greenland Group bragged in their newsletter about shipping over 3 million masks, 700,000 protective gowns, and 500,000 pairs of gloves. Risland Australia bragged on LinkedIn that a “chartered plane with 90 tons of medical supplies, including 100,000 most needed protective coveralls and 900,000 pairs of medical gloves, has successfully departed from Sydney and arrived in Wuhan.” Greenland said it also sourced bulk supplies of thermometers, antibacterial wipes, and Panadol (acetaminophen), and also loaded up on PPEs in Canada, Turkey, and other countries — all of which now have a critical shortage. China analyst Richard McGregor says it’s not surprising the companies would “publicize their patriotism,” because Chinese “real estate companies are particularly exposed to government whims, as all land is owned by the state.” (MS/Sydney Morning Herald)JVL_{April 4, 2020
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BR, yes, those are all valid but it is clear that distancing measures as simple as cloth facemasks are reducing risk of propagation. KFkairosfocus_{April 4, 2020
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kairosfocus @ 13 Most of the United States is not heavily populated. You have ranches, farms, people who live in mountains, deserts, swamps, and a whole host of other regions where the nearest neighbors already bring distance. The places where distance cannot be done effectively due to building up instead of out, are the cities. Particularly the inner-cities, which is where the majority of gang activity takes place. Gangs are ignoring everything and continuing to do what they have been doing, which cannot be done with space between them. Cities are also the places where the law abiding cannot avoid neighbors. Laundry still needs to get done, food and medicine still need to be purchased, some people still have a job they have to go to. Not everyone who is essential can work from home. They are living in tight quarters and cannot avoid each other. It is difficult to put space between people in narrow halls and small rooms used for things like laundry. Most people are not going to leave their laundry unattended, since they do not wish to come back to find their clothes have been stolen.BobRyan_{April 4, 2020
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BO'H: Yes, where each country (or community!) is, differs. Hence the World in Data tracking of cases since 100 and deaths since 5. That pattern, plotted log-lin, is showing the slowing, as is the lengthening of time to double to current level. Notice, that is country by country. My onward concern is of course if the peak becomes a plateau on fresh cases rather than diving to zero. Yes, varying testing regimes and the like (such as doubts on China) point to difficulties, but we are operating on a roughly right rather than precisely wrong principle here. The trends are pointing to peaking. Flattening due to containment is a sign that an intervention is actually working, not a defect. However, if that only leads to a plateau or fails to break the transmission chain, presence of a semi-permanent lodgement implies onward possibilities of breakouts thus secondary waves. That is actually a general expectation. Such is why we desperately need effective treatments and if we can get it fast track effective vaccinations. Just maybe, very mild strains may be spreading and giving us herd immunity on the cheap. (Is that part of what accounts for mild cases?) KFkairosfocus_{April 4, 2020
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That looks like a peaking, certainly it is not exponential surging in new cases.
There are a few issues here: 1. It's global, and the progress of the epidemic is different in different countries. So what's going on in these graphs might not say a great deal about what will happen in your country or state. In Europe, it definitely looks like Italy's curve is flattening, but not the UK's (for example). I wouldn't want to interpret this as a single population. If, for example, it takes off in Africa we could see a second peak. 2. Some of the flattening will be because of the introduction of containment measures. 3. Differing testing regimes make these plots more difficult to interpret, although I guess that the net effect is optimistic: testing is being ramped up, so some of the increase may be because of that (OTOH the populations being tested now have a smaller fraction who are infected).Bob O'H_{April 4, 2020
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BR, while your point is well taken, social distancing is not an all or none measure. The issue is to sufficiently reduce social interaction and contact that the reproduction chain begins to die out in an artificially induced saturation. This first buys time by flattening the surge of new cases, keeping facilities from being overwhelmed [which spikes death rates]. Tie in effective treatments and the partition between deaths and recoveries for serious cases (the ones that are the focus of efforts) begins to shift in favour of recovery. If a vaccination can be mobilised rapidly (and there are a few straws in the wind) then that allows putting in place artificial herd immunity. Vaccination is the only proved approach that is able to extirpate infectious diseases in the wild, or even globally eliminate, e.g. smallpox. KFkairosfocus_{April 4, 2020
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daveS @ 2 If you really believe Americans are following distancing and staying at home, then you have not been paying attention. Gang activity has not stopped in a single city. The shootings continue and it is not exactly a duel being used to shoot each other and whoever happens to get shot in the process. If there is a decline in anything, it will not be as a result of anything the government has mandated. We should see a stark increase SARS 2 cases in every city where distance is not possible. People live in apartments and unable to keep from bumping in to each other in the halls. They still have to leave to take care of laundry and buy food. Cities have a population problem and that means there can be no social distance. Criminals are breaking into stores that are considered non-essential. They are not working alone, since someone needs to drive the car. Just because the news is refraining from bringing this up, does not mean it does not happen.BobRyan_{April 3, 2020
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Folks, in the OP there is some data suggesting rates of change in what is already a first derivative of the cumulative effect functions. That data is reflected in the log-linear cumulative effect functions. It seems to me that we are beginning to see the breakout from exponential growth and resultant peaking. That is highly suggestive for this wave, and that the interventions being taken are having some positive effect. KF PS: Of course, a second wave may be coming.kairosfocus_{April 3, 2020
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@8 Ed George
In Canada over 50% of the deaths have been in seniors homes.
'Survival of the fittest' at its best. Go complain Darwin. :)Truthfreedom_{April 3, 2020
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Forgive the US President for thinking of the USA first. :roll:ET_{April 3, 2020
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Even though the young can die from this, by far the greatest risk is the seniors. In Canada over 50% of the deaths have been in seniors homes. Part of the problem is that staff in seniors homes didn't have sufficient PPE to prevent transfer from staff to the guests. And, thanks to Trump forbidding 3M from selling PPE to Canada, the risk will not be lower any time soon. Sadly, this act will be bad for 3M in the long run as countries realize that they cannot rely on international supply chains for health care materials, and pass laws that they must be manufactured at home.Ed George_{April 3, 2020
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Jim T:
Not knowing how to use computers is literally going to kill some people.
Ignorance will tend to do that.ET_{April 3, 2020
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JT, Yeah, I ran into a coworker getting some supplies yesterday. He's late 70's, with every imaginable risk factor. He's also a very nice sociable guy and was not keeping 6' of distance from others, to say the least,daveS_{April 3, 2020
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Folks, let's look at the data i/l/o the second rate of change. KFkairosfocus_{April 3, 2020
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