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Newswatch — tracking the Ukraine crisis in light of the shadows of 1938 . . .

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Preliminary thoughts are here, I  have a very queasy feeling in my tummy over this one.

For historical context, here is Wiki’s summary of developments coming out of the 1938 “Peace in our time” crisis of 1938, which began with German agitation over the claimed plight of the Sudeten Germans living under Czech rule — which turned out to be a first major international use of the turnabout accusation, blame the targetted victim agitprop tactic:

munich_1938

Parallels to the unfolding situation in the Ukraine include Poland as neighbour, with the former East Prussia now a Russian province and enclave (though this time, Poland is a member in good standing of NATO). Airing news seems to have an interesting summary, and provides a useful map (HT):

ukraine-crisis

U/D, Mar 5th: Now, is this about oil, in large measure — shades of “blood for oil”?

HT VJT, here is an oil pipeline map, from  World Observer Online :

the_Ukraine_oil_line_map

On BBC news just now (a Caribbean tradition, even though BBC today is nothing like it once was . . . itself connected to the culture-wide confrontation over worldviews and origins) Ukrainians heading to work were stopped by Russian troops in Armoured Personnel carriers on the “front lines” threatening to shoot them in the legs, after three warning shots.

This unfolding crisis is of course not directly on topic for UD, but is worth monitoring in its own right and in light of connexions to the nuke-threshold situation in the Persian Gulf, and Syria’s simmering chaos — both being allies of Putin’s Russia . . . and with Venezuela orbiting in similar circles even as it has its own chaotic situation. Impacts on oil, financial markets and general economic situations practically beg to be drawn out and discussed.

Not to mention, Ms Sarah Palin’s then derided October 21, 2008 “scenario four” prediction (probably rooted in drawing parallels to the 1938 crisis in light of Russian desires for Crimea, where its main Black Sea Fleet base is located):

[youtube GhCh4wkYlCQ]

Where of course, Ms Palin is a capital example of the way the cultural controversies too often play out, including over design theory, in an atmosphere of well-poisoning contempt largely — though obviously not only [can we all agree to disagree without being unnecessarily disagreeable?] — coming from the side that imagines it is the vanguard of scientifically informed progress and too often  sees those who differ with them as by and large “ignorant, stupid, insane or wicked.”.

So, why not have a UD thread to allow tracking the development at our favourite site for discussion?

(I don’t find the general coverage particularly well organised or insightful, let’s see if we can do better.)

Also, the unfolding crisis and reactions to it are highly revealing on the cultural civil war across our civilisation centred on issues tied to the debates over origins and linked ethical foundations of culture: if humans are morally governed beings, what does that mean?

Let us ponder, together.

UD regulars and visitors are therefore also encouraged to add links to tracking information below as this story unfolds now that an ultimatum seems to have been given (or was it . . . even that seems fuzzy).  END

PS: A question of agent provocation sniping has been raised in thread by JWT which I just saw March 6th, so here is the clip with the taped phone call, reflect on 7:11 on in light of the context:

[youtube OSCmnWw0JeU]

Nasty whichever way it goes, but the geo-strategically pivotal issue is Russian intervention, the illegitimacy of which is seen from the removal of national identification from uniforms.

Comments
PP: The Ukraine situation seems to be one part internal dissension and one part obvious invitation to intervene. All the way back to the Hasmoneans (successors to Judas Maccabeus) the problem with that is, those brought in don't leave. Especially if they have a long-term agenda. In this case, start with that the Ukraine was under Russian rule(and IIRC, was independent for a time after the Revolution, then fell into the Soviet orbit, then was independent again after the USSR collapsed) and that the Crimea is a main Russian Fleet base. Then, there are those pipelines. KFkairosfocus
March 4, 2014
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1938 was fueled on Social Darwinism and Scientism. 2014 Ukraine situation not so much?ppolish
March 4, 2014
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JG: Thanks for thoughts. Machiavelli cited the ancient Romans to the effect that when one deals with determined enemies, there is no avoiding war, it can only be postponed to the advantage of the enemies. Bridge at Andau sounds familiar, I think I read it as a teen way back, really hair raising stuff on the 56 crisis. I think our little experiment is a success, judging by hits. And your added links are very welcome. Lviv is familiar as Lvov, from reading and gaming on the East front war in the 40's. I think the list of familiar names and settings is part of what is triggering my queasy feeling. Look, this goes all the way back to the Crimean -- charge of the light brigade -- war! The poem, and note the key point on blundering:
The Charge of the Light Brigade Half a league, half a league, ? Half a league onward, All in the valley of Death, ? Rode the six hundred. 'Forward, the Light Brigade! Charge for the guns' he said: Into the valley of Death ? Rode the six hundred. 'Forward, the Light Brigade!' Was there a man dismay'd? Not tho' the soldiers knew ? Some one had blunder'd: Theirs not to make reply, Theirs not to reason why, Theirs but to do and die: Into the valley of Death ? Rode the six hundred. Cannon to right of them, Cannon to left of them, Cannon in front of them ? Volley'd and thunder'd; Storm'd at with shot and shell, Boldly they rode and well, Into the jaws of Death, Into the mouth of Hell ? Rode the six hundred. Flash'd all their sabres bare, Flash'd as they turned in air Sabring the gunners there, Charging an army while ? All the world wonder'd: Plunged in the battery-smoke Right thro' the line they broke; Cossack and Russian Reel'd from the sabre-stroke Shatter'd and sunder'd. Then they rode back, but not Not the six hundred. Cannon to right of them, Cannon to left of them, Cannon behind them ? Volley'd and thunder'd; Storm'd at with shot and shell, While horse and hero fell, They that had fought so well Came thro' the jaws of Death, Back from the mouth of Hell, All that was left of them, ? Left of six hundred. When can their glory fade? O the wild charge they made! ? All the world wonder'd. Honour the charge they made! Honour the Light Brigade, ? Noble six hundred!
KF PS: One of the survivors, it seems, was run over by a train at 70 or thereabouts . . .kairosfocus
March 4, 2014
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The book: "The Bridge at Andau" I haven't read it, but one review of it was intriguing to me. It might be an enlightening book to read on Soviet war machine - as observed in Hungary where resistance succeeded in some parts for a time. If I ever felt like reading a history book on the war in Europe those days, this would probably be among some likely choices for me. But seems reading such books would be a bit depressing. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Bridge_at_AndauJGuy
March 4, 2014
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"History shows - although I don't want to use too many historical comparisons - that those who appease all the time in order to preserve peace usually only buy a little bit of time." I believe that was attributed to Poland's current prime minister here: http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/02/us-ukraine-crisis-poland-idUSBREA210KY20140302 Which seems to be in agreement with Netanyahu's position on another geopolitical issue - dealing with Iran developing nuclear technology - and the recent "very bad deal" (as he describes it) that gives Iran time to keep developing.JGuy
March 4, 2014
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Sanctions card brandished.. "Ukraine crisis: EU gives Russia 48-hour deadline to return troops to barracks in Crimea" http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/10674260/Ukraine-crisis-EU-gives-Russia-48-hour-deadline-to-return-troops-to-barracks-in-Crimea.htmlJGuy
March 4, 2014
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Correction: "Maybe not yet… not eventually…." Should read: "Maybe not yet… but eventually…." Also, that's not saying the Russia-Ukraine situation is the trigger.... I don't know.... I'm just saying it looks like there will eventually be a world-wide nuclear exchange.JGuy
March 4, 2014
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It will all eventually culminate into nuclear war. Maybe not yet... not eventually.... Below is a three part video with a very compelling breakdown of Zechariah 5. The guy behind this video is legit and a straight shooter - maybe a bit of a pun since he's a former Army sniper. Nuclear War in prophecy: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ETvQ2YpaRAU https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5FwRQmb4SIk https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L6XreWMcFjYJGuy
March 4, 2014
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This has been on my mind a lot as well. And I also have an uneasy feeling. It could be the same as the Russian land grab over Georgia. The same excuses, and also in a time occupied by the fog of Olympic cover. Same exact scenario, except this time Ukraine may have a stronger case to protect their strategic land (Crimera). This is a violation of Ukrainian sovereignty. If it's anything like Georgia, it seems more of an attempt to acquire strategic land in the Black Sea. And I suspect some natural gas interests. But I don't think this will blow over so easily like the case when Russia took land from Georgia during cover of the prior Olympic games. However, as reported in the site below, Russia may be making a serious miscalculation... unless they have some aces up the sleeve (e.g. China). This may turn into a civil war in that region, I don't know. Ifso, it may make Russia very sensitive to any outside aggression. I visited the Ukraine last year. And enjoyed their culture and the people. I hope they don't suffer from a civil war. And I hope the same for the Russian people. It seems Putin is having old Soviet fantasies. And this reminds me when I use to work for an admiral in the navy. He had a poster in his office - not many years after the Soviet collapse - that's difficult to recall now, but the message was essentially warning about the Soviet bear that everyone thought was dead, and that it was not necessarily gone. Maybe it portrayed it as hibernating - but I can't recall. Anyway, the point is understood well enough. And Putin only makes the case for that warning, imo. A friend of mine linked me to a good news site if you want a more ground level report: http://www.kyivpost.com/ .... Yulia Marushevska plea regarding riots in the Ukraine: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hvds2AIiWLA Russians reportedly are behind Putin on this... but I don't know.JGuy
March 4, 2014
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Hollywood parties while Venezuela burns. Guess which story is still on the front pages days later.Barry Arrington
March 4, 2014
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F/N: For those looking to bone up on geostrategic issues, geopolitics more broadly . . . especially the significance of Eurasia as the world's strategic chessboard and the periphery . . . and trade choke points in a nutshell, cf here at KF. Here on the D-Day invasion and here on the Boyd OODA loop will also be helpful. KF PS: Pardon laziness, I am going to use my status as owner to put links in after posting. DONE! PPS: BTW, Israel sits on the pivot between Asia, Europe and Africa, within striking distance of the Suez canal. The Panama canal is also quite pivotal, thus also its Caribbean approaches.kairosfocus
March 4, 2014
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PS: Not to mention, what lessons did Germany post 1918 have for us in understanding Russia post 1989 - 92? About 20 years to return to status as a potentially aggressive state after devastating strategic defeat sounds awfully similar, too much to be mere coincidence.kairosfocus
March 4, 2014
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Q: With 20+ years to have done it, and with so many oil pipelines to Europe running through it, etc etc, why wasn't the Ukraine brought under NATO's protective umbrella, if not as a full member or some sort of associate, as a declared umbrella protected state? (Under the umbrella does not imply approval of domestic or foreign policies simply a declaration of support. What lessons were drawn from Belgium 1914 and 1940, Czechoslovakia 1938 [protected, then abandoned], and Korea 1950, or even Iraq and Kuwait 1990 . . . it was an unwise declaration in these cases that seemed to have opened the door to the invasions.) KFkairosfocus
March 4, 2014
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Just thinking it may be useful to track some key news stories and share our observations and links.kairosfocus
March 4, 2014
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