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COVID-19 and fading respect for Big Science

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At Creation-Evolution Headlines, an epic paragraph helps us prepare for the
fallout:

Without trying to take sides here, a few headlines illustrate some of the posturing and attacking going on. UC Davis claims that your mask cuts down risk of contracting the disease by 65%, but how can they measure that without specifying the conditions? What kind of mask? How often is it cleaned? The Scientist pitched in, too, with an infographic. But Dr Anthony Fauci, the acclaimed world expert on infectious diseases, first denied the effectiveness of masks and now strongly advocates them. The bickering over masks has taken a political turn, with conservatives often denying their effectiveness, and liberals using masks as virtue signals to shame those who don’t use them. Some say UV kills the virus, others say it doesn’t. The University of Houston has an air filter they claim can kill the virus. The Mayo Clinic puffs itself up in the role of authority, “Debunking COVID-19 Myths,” but who will debunk the debunkers? Much of its advice appears commonsense, but the ‘experts’ have blundered big time publicly for months now, with mainstream media behind them. They promoted then retracting a claim about hydrochloroquine causing harm, because it made President Trump, who promoted HCQ, look bad—a political motivation. See negative analysis by Mary McCullough, and compare it with claims of success from a Henry Ford study (New York Post); see how CNN’s coverage immediately casts doubt on it, revealing its knee-jerk bias against the president). A preprint on bioRxiv finds that HCQ is theoretically and experimentally good after all. Today, there is a controversy going on about whether the virus is airborne (e.g., Nature, BBC News, Live Science). Why is such a simple observational test so hard for the world’s greatest medical scientists to figure out, using state-of-the-art equipment?

David F. Coppedge, “Big Science Is Losing Even More Credibility” at Creation-Evolution Headlines

It’s not the uncertainty that is the problem. It’s the demand for belief and obedience to a variety of conflicting claims in the face of such uncertainty. Sooner or later people begin to doubt whatever they hear, even in matters about which there is considerable certainty. And Big Science is bringing that on itself. It isn’t the “enemies of science” who are doing it.

Comments
“At every store, it’s no shirt, no shoes, no mask, no service,” Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear said Sunday. “This is just where we are in our battle as Americans and as Kentuckians against COVID-19.” The governor intoned the seriousness of the pandemic Sunday, two days after making it mandatory for Kentuckians to wear face masks when out in public. “Folks, this is serious. So what we need everybody to do is wear that mask. It’s a requirement, just like wearing your seatbelt,” Beshear said. https://www.wlwt.com/article/gov-beshear-to-kentuckians-no-mask-no-service/33298221rhampton7
July 13, 2020
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Gov. Tate Reeves said Mississippi is in the middle of a COVID-19 spike. “This is the worst it has ever been for the spread of cases in our state. It is the most stressed our hospitals have been,” Reeves said. Right now, there is a backlash against coronavirus mitigation. It’s understandable. The sky is falling predictions of the spring were not realized.” Reeves said he understands why people are skeptical, but the science is there to support wearing a mask in public. “We’ve looked at every available tool and I promise you this this is the best weapon that we have. It’s not fun, but it’s a hell of a lot better than widespread shutdowns and if we don’t do something, that’s where we're headed,” Reeves said. “Every Mississippian has to get through their own head that this is the right thing to do. Are we going to get 100 percent compliance? No. But if we get 80 or 90 percent, it will go a long way,” Reeves said. “Right now, there seems there is a good number of people who have resigned themselves to spreading the virus. Or they believe it is not real. I hear that all the time. I’m telling you, it is real. It is very real. You can see it in our death toll.” https://www.wapt.com/article/covid-19-spread-this-is-the-worst-it-has-ever-been-governor-says/33301499rhampton7
July 13, 2020
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Governor Kim Reynolds has released a video message to Iowans, urging them to voluntarily wear a mask and practice other public health measures to prevent the spread of COVID-19 “COVID-19 is far from over and I don’t want to go backwards. I don’t want to reverse the progress that we’ve made since the pandemic began and that’s why I’m again asking for your help,” Reynolds said. “I believe in Iowans and I know that we can continue to step up and take personal responsibility, not because it’s mandated, but because it’s the right thing to do.” “So let’s step up, Iowa,” Reynolds says in the video. “Protecting yourself means you’re protecting yourself, your family members, your co-workers and your fellow Iowans.” “ Each and every one of us has it in our power to slow the spread of COVID-19,” Reynolds said in today’s video statement. “That’s how we’ll keep Iowans safe and healthy, keep our economy up and running and keep our state moving forward.” https://kiwaradio.com/local-news/as-covid-19-cases-rise-gov-urges-iowans-to-step-up-take-personal-responsibility/rhampton7
July 13, 2020
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take the promotion of hydroxychloroquine as a remedy against Covid-19 by Professor Didier Raoult in France, quickly relayed by influential people. Dr. Raoult started using hydroxychloroquine in the treatment of infectious bacterial diseases in the 1990s. He demonstrated that an antibiotic given with a dose of hydroxychloroquine is effective in treating Q fever and Whipple's disease . So understandably, when SARS-CoV2 first hit the headlines, Raoult turned to his favorite drug, hydroxychloroquine, to try to cure patients with Covid-19. "Coronavirus, game over", he said on a YouTube video posted on March 26, triumphantly announcing that hydroxychoroquine works. Unfortunately, his first clinical trial had not been double-blind randomized, which was perhaps excusable given the urgency of the situation. But his second either! If they had been, following the protocols generally accepted by scientists and doctors, Raoult would have quickly realized that his favorite drug has in fact no effect like the randomized double-blind studies conducted by the British (Oxford RECOVERY ) and the Americans (NIH ORCHID) have now demonstrated this. In fact, Raoult believed so much in his miracle drug that he felt it was unnecessary to follow well-oiled clinical trial protocols. He also considers these protocols useless, obsolete, and despise those who advocate them. But, in fact, as RECOVERY and OCHID have demonstrated, they have the annoying habit of often providing clear answers as to the effectiveness (or in this case ineffectiveness) of a drug. These examples raise the question: is science entirely the rational pursuit that scientists claim it is, or is there some influence from other factors? The fact is that science does not work in a vacuum. The data can be ambiguous, leaving room for interpretation, but the context also plays a role. Professor Raoult's early success with hydroxychloroquine against certain bacterial infections could have led him to draw premature conclusions concerning the effect of his favorite drug on SARS-CoV2. https://www.europeanscientist.com/fr/opinion/la-science-sous-influence/rhampton7
July 13, 2020
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The drug controller general of India (DCGI) had Saturday approved itolizumab for emergency, restricted use among severe Covid-19 patients, making it the first indigenous drug to be cleared for coronavirus treatment. According to Shaw, the study to evaluate itolizumab’s response among Covid patients involved 30 patients, of whom 20 were given the drug and 10 served as control. The latter only received “best supportive care”, which included regular treatment by hospitals as well as antivirals, antibiotics, oxygen therapy, and hydroxychloroquine, where applicable. Supportive care varied across institutions. All 20 patients who were given itolizumab recovered, Mazumdar-Shaw said. “Apart from the 20 patients who recovered in this trial, many doctors across the country decided to use (itolizumab brand name) Alzumab, which is available in the market, just like they use tocilizumab, to save people’s lives. Over 150 people have been rescued by/benefitted from itolizumab or Alzumab (brand name), in Maharashtra, Gujarat, Delhi,” she added. The Biocon trial started in May and concluded 7 July. Each patient underwent treatment for a month and was monitored for cytokines, platelets, creatinine, oxygen pressure, regular vitals, etc, said Mazumdar-Shaw. It was observed, she added, that there was a reduced mortality rate among those who were given the drug, while three among those who hadn’t received the treatment died. The patients also showed “significantly reduced” levels of cytokines IL-2, IL-6, IL-17, and TNF alpha, which lead to inflammation and can lead to deaths of cells and tissues during an overly excited immune response. https://theprint.in/health/30-patients-2-months-how-biocon-claims-to-have-found-a-covid-hope-in-itolizumab/460054/rhampton7
July 13, 2020
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Amy V. Rapkiewicz, MD, chair and autopsy director, department of pathology, at the NYU Long Island School of Medicine in Mineola, and associates presented a series of COVID-19 autopsies with findings in the lungs, heart, kidneys, liver, and bone to add to the information surrounding prothrombotic conditions in patients with COVID-19. Of the 7 patients included in the case series, 4 patients were women. Patient ages ranged from 44 years to 65 years. Three patients were Hispanic, 3 were White, and 1 was Black. Asystolic arrest at home was reported in 2 patients and 2 patients were reported to be taking aspirin prior to illness. Before their COVID-19 diagnosis, none of the patients were taking anticoagulants; however, of the 5 hospitalized patients, all received either therapeutic or prophylactic anticoagulation. In addition, all 5 hospitalized patients were treated with at least 1 dose of azithromycin and hydroxychloroquine, and all were mechanically ventilated. All patients had platelet-rich thrombi in the microvasculature of the lungs, liver, kidneys, and heart, regardless of their anticoagulation treatment status. Megakaryocytes were also observed in the cardiac microvascular of all patients. Some patients had megakaryocytes in glomeruli, but the highest was noted in the lungs. All cases of megakaryocytes were linked to fibrin microthrombi in cardiac microvasculature. “ These findings, in conjunction with extensive platelet-fibrin micro-thrombi detected on specific staining, suggest a profound platelet response in COVID-19 that may be responsible at least in part for multi-organ failure,” the authors noted. https://www.hematologyadvisor.com/home/topics/thrombotic-disorders/multiple-organ-thrombi-present-in-covid19-autopsy-series/rhampton7
July 13, 2020
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In a new JAMA editorial, a Boston University School of Public Health (BUSPH) researcher and a health research journalist outline common ways that media, governments, and industry and academic public relations press releases have incompletely and misleadingly reported coronavirus research, and how they can do better. By way of example, Saitz and Schwitzer describe how three drugs--remdesivir, dexamethasone, and hydroxychloroquine--have been touted as COVID cures, without explanations of the limits of the evidence. These rushed and incomplete announcements have led, among other consequences, to shortages, government stockpiling, and a baffled public: In the case of hydroxychloroquine, they write, "News stories and social media reports took readers on a roller coaster ride, alternately reporting efficacy, lack of efficacy, and harm, reporting dutifully on the results of each latest study." Instead, Saitz and Schwitzer recommend greater caution and more detail, including highlighting limitations, specifying patient populations, and describing new findings in the larger context of previous research. It may be a hard pill to swallow, but, they write, "It is important that complexity be mentioned and considered even if it is not popular among layperson readers." https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2020-07/buso-bro071320.phprhampton7
July 13, 2020
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Weeks after halting a South Dakota study into effects of hydroxychloroquine on COVID-19, state officials and health system leaders continue to wait for direction from federal officials on what to do with doses that were routed here for the experiment. We have not received guidance from the federal government. Each of the state’s health systems received an allocation of the drug,” state Department of Health spokesman Derrick Haskins said. In a followup Monday, he added, “We don’t have any reason to believe that guidance will not be forthcoming.” https://www.keloland.com/top-stories/s-d-still-seeks-guidance-on-hydroxychloroquine/rhampton7
July 13, 2020
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I have amend my comment above. The 5 states account fo 49% of the deaths not 64% but only 16% of the US population. The US has over 1% official infections. An interesting comparison in the world is Germany with less than .25% of the population infected while France right next door has about .3% of the population Infected but three times as many deaths. On the other side of Germany is Poland With 1/2 the infections per million of Germany and an even slightly lower death rate. What are they doing different? Is the low infection rates in Germany and Poland especially Poland just postponing the inevitable of later infections?jerry
July 12, 2020
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However, it can be concluded that whatever the US is doing has failed when compared to most of the US allies.
Five US states (New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Connecticut and Pennsylvania) account for 64% of the deaths. They are large but certainly not the largest. California, Texas and Florida are the largest. They are not part of the 5 states which skews the US numbers. Which US ally did you have in mind?jerry
July 12, 2020
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H2O2 is a disinfectant. And it can be injected. Of course it has to be a specific grade and then diluted. Administered only by trained medical professionals. And THAT is what Trump said. He NEVER said to administer it yourself.ET
July 12, 2020
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The GOVERNORs are responsible for the people in their State. That people want to blame the federal government just further exposes their ignorance.ET
July 12, 2020
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I have to be precise with my previous comment. Neither Remdesivir or zinc actually kill the virus. They both prevent the virus from replicating and then spreading The immune system is the internal disinfectant that then comes along and kills the virus. However, it is recommended by medical authorities that various things be taken to boost the immune system. Some of these are also injected as part of outpatient and hospital treatments. So is a vitamin C injection a disinfectant or just an additive to make the actual disinfectant more potent? It’s possible to get into ridiculous semantic games here when the objective should be saving lives. But the sad thing is that is not the objective as is obvious from our political environment.jerry
July 12, 2020
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he did clearly and unambiguously mention injecting disinfectant
Remdesivir is a disinfectant that one injects. Highly recommended by world medical community. Actually I believe very overrated. But saw a headline today that said they had better information. Zinc is also an effective disinfectant when used with HCQ. Though is taken orally. Maybe we could inject both just to make the treatment more expensive. Trumps actual words included “like that” so he wasn’t suggesting common over the counter products but products that act similarly internally such as Remdesivir. So why bring it up and add the modifier “unambiguously” when It clearly wasn’t an appropriate modifier?jerry
July 12, 2020
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MMT, the US is not to be compared to states 1/5 to 1/7 or less its size on population -- and usually far more geographically compressed/compact so not needing as much distant communication, travel and transportation; if we do the aggregation (or compare states), the results become much more comparable. In addition, no-one should believe the China story. The truth is, once a pandemic broke out, large numbers of deaths were inevitable, the real issue is the dismal choice between deaths from a spiking pandemic overwhelming facilities and deaths from needless economic dislocation, with 3rd world famine deaths to follow. In addition, some serious reckoning needs to be made by health authorities and the media for unwarranted attacks on what was all along a credible prompt treatment, HCQ based cocktails. That irresponsible and in too many cases blatantly politically motivated behaviour cost a lot of lives. In particular, I am disgusted with disregard for an ethics-epistemology challenge connected to creating a gold standard for placebo based studies when a modicum of decision theory would have taught us a lot better long since. That is one of the lessons to be learned. KF PS: I found him clear enough, save to those determined to see him in the worst light.kairosfocus
July 12, 2020
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I’m gonna count how many time this thread blames trump. Btw this is China’s fault and WHO’s initial failure. Trump just follows what Fauci says. Whom he is a hypocrite There’s an awesome video of him telling everybody how they have to wear masks while he’s wearing a mask in the moment they stop recording him he takes his mask offAaronS1978
July 12, 2020
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KF@58, I agree that Trump was alluding to internal use of UV although, because of the strange way he strings words together, and his frequent claim that sunlight kills the virus, I can see how it could easily be misinterpreted. This being said, he did clearly and unambiguously mention injecting disinfectant. We could argue all day long whether or not Trump’s actions have made it worse for the US to no benefit to anyone. However, it can be concluded that whatever the US is doing has failed when compared to most of the US allies. And, because of this, the impact on lives and the economy will be more extensive than they could have been.Mac McTavish
July 12, 2020
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zero credibility
No not zero, but an excellent positive indicator of the opposite of what is said.jerry
July 12, 2020
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Sev, why are you repeating a long since exploded falsehood? Mr Trump clearly was discussing UV irradiation of bronchi, which he likely had been briefed on; that has been explored and we discussed the matter here at UD weeks and weeks ago. . The loaded strawman caricature into bleach was and is falsehood that should have been prominently retracted and apologised for. Why is it that so many need to look down on "deplorables" and disdain them as ignorant, stupid, insane or wicked? Do you not see that your persistence in bigoted false accusation gives us the right to hold you as having zero credibility? KFkairosfocus
July 12, 2020
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dozens of hospitals here in Florida and Texas are turning away patients because they are maxed out.
Yet facts are facts. As of today Florida has over 900 ICU beds available including 100 in your county. I did see that Nassau and Okkechobe counties are maxed out in ICU beds, each with 8 each. The lowest for beds in general is Flagler County which is down to 8% out of 112 total. Your county has nearly a 1000 beds available.jerry
July 12, 2020
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I am sure there will be people who dismiss this article with ad hominem arguments about NPR, but facts are facts. https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/06/24/883017035/what-contact-tracing-may-tell-about-cluster-spread-of-the-coronavirusRetired Physicist
July 12, 2020
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@Seversky dozens of hospitals here in Florida and Texas are turning away patients because they are maxed out. Putin sure is getting his money’s worth.Retired Physicist
July 12, 2020
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As far as the article on New Zealand, if the author can delete it, that will be ok with me. It is apparently fake news. It was over the top. It was however a New Zealand news source. I find it interesting that no one commented on the second part of the comment.jerry
July 12, 2020
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I hope the people of this country hold them to account when the time comes.
I assume you mean all the people who publish fake news about the lack of effectiveness of the treatments for the virus such as those highlighted in the comments posted by RHampton. Have you been advocating for these treatments that are effective In your comments here and with your friends? Then there is Dr Appleby. Did she administer the treatments at her hospital. If I was the family, I would be investigating for negligence. I would be suing the Democratic Party for falsely trying to say Trump said it was a hoax. Has the Democratic Party been a major contributor to all the deaths due to the virus?jerry
July 12, 2020
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Such deaths should be laid at the doors of the White House. The Trump administration has consistently downplayed the severity of this pandemic, has fumbled its response and more people are paying with their lives than might otherwise have been the case. I hope the people of this country hold them to account when the time comes.Seversky
July 11, 2020
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A Texas doctor says a 30-year-old patient died after attending a "COVID party," believing the coronavirus pandemic was a hoax. "We cared for a 30-year-old patient at Methodist Hospital who told their nurse that they had attended a 'COVID party.' ... Just before the patient died, they looked at their nurse and said 'I think I made a mistake. I thought this was a hoax, but it's not,'" said Dr. Jane Appleby in a video statement obtained by USA TODAY. Appleby is the chief medical officer for Methodist Healthcare in San Antonio. Appleby said the parties are held by those skeptical of the virus and include someone who has previously tested positive. Attendees go to see "if the virus is real and if anyone gets infected."  https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/07/11/texas-patient-30-dies-after-attending-covid-party-doctor-says/5422175002/rhampton7
July 11, 2020
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UB
Jerry, perhaps it’s just me, but I think the phrasing in that article is a little misleading.
I think it is extremely misleading. Take this statement from the article for example:
We're going to have thousands of people sitting in these facilities, quarantined in isolation facilities for months, maybe years ahead.
When I first read this I thought he was talking about quarantining individuals for months or years. Then I did a little research. The article is talking about the fact that NZ requires that people entering NZ must be quarantined for 14 days, a practice being followed by many countries. The “months to years” phrase is referring to the practice of quarantining newcomers for 14 days, not about quarantining any individuals for this the goth of time.Mac McTavish
July 11, 2020
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. Jerry, perhaps it's just me, but I think the phrasing in that article is a little misleading. Potentially misleading anyway.Upright BiPed
July 11, 2020
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New Zealand to quarantine people 'for months, maybe years' as COVID-19 rages around world - epidemiologist Michael Baker We're going to have thousands of people sitting in these facilities, quarantined in isolation facilities for months, maybe years ahead. "Sensible risk management says when a mistake happens you figure out what went wrong, and you improve the system." The latest escapee, a person in their 60s, broke the window of the Waipuna Hotel in Auckland on Friday and climbed out of the building. They then scaled the fence and began to knock on the doors of neighbouring homes.
https://bit.ly/2Zjmj9E They have people locked up potentially for years. But they are one of the leaders in the world in deaths per million. Lock em up and we will look good. Is this the future that those who favor lockdowns for-see? Side by side - Costa Rica and Panama are adjacent countries. The death rate per million in Costa Rica is 5 and in Panama it is 200. Guess who used HCQ and who has rejected HCQ? Then there is Mexico who has also rejected HCQ. Their death rate per million is 265.jerry
July 11, 2020
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Thank you. Interesting.ET
July 11, 2020
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