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Prominent NAS member trashes neo-Darwinism

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Natural selection …is not the fundamental cause of evolution.

Masatoshi Nei

Science continues to destroy Darwinism. A prominent member of the National Academy of Sciences, Masatoshi Nei, trashed neo-Darwinism in the recent peer-reviewed article: The new mutation theory of phenotypic evolution.

Haldane’s dilemma showed mathematically that natural selection could not be the major driving force of evolution. Haldane’s dilemma lead in part to the non-Darwinian theory of molecular evolution known as the “neutral theory of molecular evolution”. Neutral theory asserted natural selection was not the principal driving force of molecular evolution. However, when molecular neutral theory was presented to the world in the 1960’s, it was politically incorrect to assert the obvious consequence of the neutral theory of molecular evolution, namely: morphology, physiology, and practically anything else made of molecules would NOT be principally shaped by natural selection either.

In What are the speed limits of naturalistic evolution?, I pointed out:

And if Haldane’s dilemma were not enough of a blow to Darwinian evolution, in the 1960’s several population geneticists like Motoo Kimura demonstrated mathematically that the overwhelming majority of molecular evolution was non-Darwinian and invisible to natural selection. Lest he be found guilty for blasphemy, Kimura made an obligatory salute to Darwin by saying his non-Darwinian neutral theory “does not deny the role of natural selection in determining the course of adaptive evolution”. That’s right, according to Kimura, adaptive evolution is visible to natural selection while simultaneously molecular evolution is invisible to natural selection. Is such a position logical? No. Is it politically and intellectually expedient? Absolutely!

But now 4 decades later, the inevitable consequence of Haldane’s dilemma and Kimura’s neutral theory may be ending the uneasy truce between neo-Darwinists and neutralists.

Nei writes:

For the last six decades, the dominant theory of evolution has been neo-Darwinism, which was developed by the three founders of theoretical population genetics, Fisher (1), Wright (2), and Haldane (3), and was later supported by various evolutionists (4). Neo-Darwinism asserts that natural selection is the driving force of evolution,
….
In the last four decades, the study of molecular evolution has shown that a majority of amino acid substitutions in proteins are neutral or nearly neutral

However, most evolutionists still believe in neo-Darwinism with respect to phenotypic evolution and are not interested in neutral evolution (19,22).

Mayr (23) stated that neutral mutations apparently occur at the molecular level, but because they do not affect phenotypic characters, they are of little interest to evolutionists.
….

By contrast, Nei (17, 24, 25) argued that because phenotypic characters are ultimately controlled by DNA sequences, both molecular and phenotypic evolution must occur in similar [non Darwinian] ways. He also suggested that a considerable portion of morphological evolution is caused by neutral or nearly neutral mutations, and the driving force of evolution is mutation at both molecular and phenotypic levels.
….
As mentioned in the introduction, a majority of current evolutionists believe in neo-Darwinism. In one of the most popular textbooks on evolution, Futuyma (ref. 20, p. 10) states that evolutionary change is a population process in which one genotype replaces other ones, and for this process to occur, mutation is quite ineffective because of its low rate of occurrence, whereas even the slightest intensity of natural selection can bring about substantial change in a realistic amount of time. He also states “Natural selection can account for both slight and great differences among species, and adaptations are traits that have been shaped by natural selection.” Although this type of statement is quite common in the evolutionary literature, it is obvious that any advantageous genotype is produced by mutation including all kinds of genetic changes. Natural selection occurs as a consequence of mutational production of different genotypes, and therefore it is not the fundamental cause of evolution.

Historically, the word mutationism was used to refer to William Bateson’s saltationism or similar ideas, in which natural selection plays little role. Later Morgan (109) presented a more reasonable form of mutationism taking into account the role of natural selection. His view was abstract and based on a few lines of speculative arguments. However, recent molecular studies of phenotypic evolution support the basic ideas of his view and have extended it to a more comprehensive view presented in this article. If the new form of mutation theory described here is right, even in its crudest form, more emphasis should be given on the roles of mutation in the study of evolution.

Notes:

1. ID sympathizer Dr. John Davison, who has spent much of his recent life promoting the works of William Bateson, should be much encouraged with these developments. It was through Davison I learned of Bateson’s wonderful ideas.

2. Richard Dawkins wrote of Kimura in Blindwatchmaker. Dawkins argued Kimura’s ideas wouldn’t overturn Darwinism since Darwinism operated at the higher level of adaptation whereas Kimura’s non-Darwinian theory operated at the lower level of molecules. But the reductionists are now getting taste of their own medicine. If the Darwinism doesn’t operate at the molecular level, then why should we expect it to operate at much higher levels like morphology and physiology either?

3. Lewontin gives a powerful example of neutral evolution at the morphological level. Rhinos have either 1 horn or 2 horns. Did natural selection cause the evolution of one horn in one case, and 2 horns in another? Unlikely.

4. Salthe pointed out a fundamental contradiction in Fisher’s fundamental theorem of natural selection. Selection is the enemy of diversity. Salthe realized the obvious problem of trying to account for the abundance of diversity through a mechanism which reduces diversity.

5. At least 3 signatories of the Discovery Institute’s Dissent from Darwin list anticipated these recent developments. Davison, Salthe, and Ho. Ho managed to present echoes of these ideas 30 years ago in a peer-reviewed journal. See: An eloquent but bogus non-review by Dawkins.

a relative lack of natural selection may be the prerequisite for major evolutionary advance

Mae Wan Ho

Comments
Would you agree that fitness is defined as a species’ ability to survive? Is this relevant? Why is species-level selection relevant to the evolution of complexity? Remember what's on the table: Is simple life better able to survive environmental pressure than complex life. If yes, Darwinian evolution is false since Darwinian evolution claims that life evolves complexity to better be able to survive environmental pressure. How would you define fitness?tribune7
July 24, 2007
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Bob, do you think if I had a trait which allowed me to produce 1 offspring per year, when all other humans managed merely 2 in a lifetime that my newly found trait wouldn't be selected by NS? And then if my offspring had another new trait which enable them to produce 1 offspring per week this wouldn't be selected? Then 1 offspring per day....Then 1 per hour...etc This Bob is fitness, and this is how NS would direct the process of evolution if constructive mutations weren’t so improbable. You seem to think that NS can direct the evolution of higher organisms despite that fact that at some point these newly evolved organisms would have possessed a trait which reduced its fitness. So we start with an organism that produces thousands or more surviving offspring all the way to humans, elephants and whales which produce surviving offspring measured in single numbers.Acquiesce
July 24, 2007
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Bob: As a counter-example, imagine one type of individual that produces 2 offspring after 100 years, and another that produces 1 offspring after 1 year. Which individual will have more descendents after 1000 years?
The second one is fitter and would eventually win out. What on earth has this got to do with the argument? Are you seriously suggesting that NS would favour the one that produces only 2 offspring in a 100 years rather than the other that produces 1 per year?! So let me ask you again, how can NS direct for higher complexity whilst simultaneously selecting for lower fitness (lower numbers of surviving offspring).Acquiesce
July 24, 2007
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Folks, if you're not happy with t.o., the take it up with them! I'll admit that palaeontology isn't my field, so I don't have all the information at my fingertips (and I have too many other things to do, rather than trawl through the literature). If you want an example of fossil evidence for the evolution of a complex organ, try the mammalian ear. Acquiesce -
Fitness is a measure of the numbers of surviving offspring (nothing else).
No, that's lifetime reproductive success. Fisher showed in 1930 that this wasn't a sufficient measure for fitness. As a counter-example, imagine one type of individual that produces 2 offspring after 100 years, and another that produces 1 offspring after 1 year. Which individual will have more descendents after 1000 years? (assuming a constant environment, and that the individuals are of the same asexual species) kairosfocus - I gave up checking the other thread because it looked like Crandaddy wasn't going to answer my original question. I've just checked and he hasn't given any more responses. BobBob O'H
July 24, 2007
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Would you agree that fitness is defined as a species’ ability to survive?
Is this relevant? Why is species-level selection relevant to the evolution of complexity?
An organism that passes on 50% of its genes is less fit than one that passes on 100%; an organism that has an average of 2.5 surviving offspring is less fit that has 100. These were the things brought up earlier and they are indeed valid points.
Only ceteris paribus. Which is why I brought up trade-offs. Acquiesce - You're claiming that fitness is highest in bacteria, as compared to more complex organisms. That only makes sense if the organisms are competing. You're still thinking that a more complex organism is less fit, but haven't given any evidence for this, unless it's by comparison with "all the organisms which supposedly evolved from them" (#13). So you were making the fitness comparison, which I think we now agree is invalid. I would still like to see some evidence for the claim that more complex organisms are less fit. BobBob O'H
July 24, 2007
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Bob: quite simply, there isn’t a reduction in fitness with increasing complexity.
Fitness is a measure of the numbers of surviving offspring (nothing else). Thus you are totally wrong, less complex organisms are orders of magnitude fitter than higher organisms – which brings us back to how NS can direct for higher complexity whilst simultaneously selecting for lower fitness.Acquiesce
July 24, 2007
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Bob: I’m afraid it simply doesn’t work like that: it makes no sense to compare the fitness of a human with (say) a bacterium. They’re not competing with each other (they live in very different ecological niches.
What are you talking about? Can you not understand my point? I thought I made it clear that I'm talking about how NS can select organisms for higher complexity when every organism we know of produces less surviving offspring than bacteria. How did the first organism (of greater complexity) which evolved from bacteria come to be selected by NS when its number of surviving offspring (i.e. its fitness) was vastly reduced? Where did I say ‘compare the fitness between humans and bacteria’? I must have given you an idea, because only a few posts further up I talked about a potential solution to this problem (e.g. large jumps producing a totally different type of organism, no longer competing with the parent stock). I can only think you either understand my point but cannot answer it (so you try and divert attention somewhere else), or you really do not understand it. But it appears most other people on this forum do – and I suspect they can also see you side stepping my point. So let me ask you again, how can NS direct for higher complexity whilst simultaneously selecting for lower fitness?Acquiesce
July 24, 2007
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Bob, An organism that passes on 50% of its genes is less fit than one that passes on 100%; an organism that has an average of 2.5 surviving offspring is less fit that has 100. These were the things brought up earlier and they are indeed valid points. For example, there are certain advantages to sexually reproducing; the problem is these advantages do not increase fitness by a whopping 50%, in order to offset the loss caused by switching to that mode of reproduction. At best we have long-term, forward-looking advantages, such as purifying the gene-pool over time - but what matters for selection is only the immediate reward or penalty. And a 50% reduction in fitness is a tough pill to swallow. As people who design things in the real world, not just in our fecund imaginations, we know empirically that more complexity equals more potential points of failure. As an engineer I deliberately make systems as simple as possible, since complex ones have more things that can (and statistically will) go wrong. So again, what would cause selection to make a trend towards more complex, less reproductive organisms? How would bacteria eventually turn into man? If you put an equal number of humans and bacteria in the same environment (a warm pond, for example) it is clear which organism will have more surviving offspring after a given period of time. It is ok to admit that this is an awkward set of facts for Darwinism to deal with. No one will look down on you for being an honest, questioning human.Atom
July 24, 2007
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Thus the fitness dropoff is obviously present,… I’ll ask again - can someone give me some evidence for this. Would you agree that fitness is defined as a species' ability to survive?tribune7
July 24, 2007
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Thus the fitness dropoff is obviously present,...
I'll ask again - can someone give me some evidence for this. BobBob O'H
July 24, 2007
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Bob, All the eyes now present were present in the Cambrian Explosion. There is no evidence of any gradual development since. And there was no evidence of an eye of any kind existing before the Cambrian Explosion. So eyes came out of nowhere. Probably one of the most complicated pieces of machinery known to man. The model provided by Nilsson and Pelger is nothing more than a just so story with no explanation of the complicated biological proteins/machinery/instructions that would have to accompany these artistic drawings. Anyone with Adobe Illustrator and a little artistic ability could design any sequence they want from one animal to another and then claim it took place in little steps. That is all you provided. That is all evolutionary biology provides. In what other science would such an approach be taken as science and incorporated into its subject matter? The answer is none, so the real question is why is it allowed in evolutionary biology. Why is it so difficult to admit this? In any other discipline scientist would be having a field day with people who presented such nonsense. They would be looked upon as superstitious know nothings that have to invoke magic to justify their hypotheses. Remind you of anything.jerry
July 24, 2007
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Bob: I looked at the TO page and the onward links: --> TO gives a generic claim, not the substantiating details backed up by enough credible cases that would be satisfactory. [This is typical of TO, which is simply not a credible source, period. If that is your best quick online response, that does not measure up.] --> The first onward link goes to another generic link with generic remarks on artificial life "experiments." Of course,these are computer simulations, NOT experiments. GIGO, anyone? --> Worse, the second, main linked reference is to the AVIDA paper, which of course is a case which substitutes intelligently designed software for real world natural environments. --> As to the just-so story on how the eye might evolve, this is a case of smooth words papering over serious technical difficulties for the proposed problem-solving algorithm of NDT. The reversing of the burden of proof attempt simply underscores the point. --> I am particularly underwhelmed by TO's "argument from incredulity" claim. Sorry, this is not an appeal to "we don't know and/or it does not seem believable to us, skeptics that we are." We are looking at the need to do something we are very familiar with: create functionally specified, complex information based systems, and in this case arguably involving multiple interacting parts that for a core subset need to be functioning together before the whole will work properly. That we know how to do: intelligent design and development. And we have good reason to infer that random processes cannot reasonably deliver that degree of complexity on the gamut of the observable universe. Thus the fitness dropoff is obviously present, BTW -- and it is vouched for by just how destructive mutations tend to be, overwhelmingly. [Behe's recent work on the empirical cases of 10^20 or so organisms tightens this up even more . . .] In short, Trib 7 is dead right -- you have NOT seriously answered the question. To give you an idea of what ID thinkers are looking for, let's cite a recent semi-popular article by Petersen, discussing Behe from 1996, so this is hardly news:
Behe the biochemist . . . search[ed] the relevant scientific journals, books, and proceedings of meetings to find out what the Darwinists had really proven about the origin of complex biochemical systems . . . . "There has never been a meeting, or a book, or a paper on details of the evolution of complex biochemical systems" . . . Behe, recalling the "fierce resistance" he encountered after the publication of Darwin's Black Box, remarks that much of it came from "internet fans of Darwinism who claimed that, why, there were hundreds or thousands of research papers describing Darwinian evolution of irreducibly complex biochemical systems." Except that there aren't.
Miller's tale on the TTSS notwithstanding [it uses a subset of the genes for the flagellum and so is at best derivative and an instance of double coding which makes the problem more intractable -- frontloading using interleaved codes!], that judgement still stands, over a decade after that book was published. The resort to computer simulations under grossly unrealistic conditions and the associated attempted redefinitions of life etc are simply revealing of the balance of the case on the merits. The eye case and associated try on reversing the burden of proof simply underscores this. On the point where this leads, the basic point is well known from engineering: KISS. Complexity means there is more room to go wrong and so it naturally reduces fitness for function - ask anyone who has had to design a robustly functional system. Only if a certain degree of complexity is in effect necessary and robustly protected, can we get away with making things complex. Sure, complex, self-assembling multicellular organisms are able to create and/or go into niches, but the stages to get there are incredibly complex, far beyond the credible reach of chance-based search mechanisms [the random mutations part of NDT, which has to be there before we get the natural selection part]. Wheel and tun and come again . . . GEM of TKI PS: We are still waiting over at the July 6th explanatory sufficiency threadkairosfocus
July 24, 2007
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Bob, It isn't fitness troughs that are being discussed but what type of life is most optimized for survivability. It seems, contrary to TOE, that the simplist life is the fittest if the point is survival.tribune7
July 24, 2007
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tribune7 - I would disagree. Note this comment:
The increments between these steps are slight and may be broken down into even smaller increments. Natural selection should, under many circumstances, favor the increments.
Now, it may be that this is wrong, but the page show how the complex eye can evolve in stages, and how each stage is fitter than the last. i.e. there is no fitness trough to go through. I think you have to demonstrate that such a trough would exist (indeed, I notice nobody in this thread has tried to provide evidence for a fitness trough). Also note that the page gives references, so you can follow it up further if you want to. BobBob O'H
July 24, 2007
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Bob, linking to TalkOrigins isn't answering the question. And the link doesn't even address the question. Saying the eye evolved -- a famously contested claim in itself -- does not explain how creatures that depend on eyes are more fitted to survival than creatures that don't.tribune7
July 23, 2007
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tribune7 - there are some examples here. The Major Transitions book I linked to above (#90) probably gives more examples (my copy is at work, and I won't be in that office today). PaV - you haven't been reading your Dawkins, have you? :-) The rats that are killed won't produce offspring, so therefore will be less fit. The level of selection is (usually) the individual, not (as you seem to imply) the population. BobBob O'H
July 23, 2007
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Trying to find a definition of fitness is like trying to grab hold of jello. Bob, here's an exercise. I remember taking a class in Animal Behavior years and years ago. One of the articles we read had to do with rats. It seems that when the density of rats in a restricted area gets so high, they begin to kill one another. Now, here's the exercise, if fitness is related to competing species, and, if fitness is essentially reproductive success, then how can a species of rats that has developed the tendency to kill its own (and, therefore, reduce the number of offsprings in the present generation and the ensuing generation as well) be considered more fit? And, if it's not more fit, then how did it develop?PaV
July 23, 2007
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quite simply, there isn’t a reduction in fitness with increasing complexity. Can this be shown in some objective way? According to the theory, simple life evolves into complex life due to environmental pressure in which the complexity imparts some advantage in surviability for the species. Where can this be shown to be true in nature?tribune7
July 23, 2007
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Bob, Thank you for looking into the issue of conserved sequences. My prediction is that the deep conservation issue will parallel what has happened in abiogenesis research: answers will at first look promising, and then a dead end appears. I realize we disagree, but I would welcome being alerted to any developments either way. Thanks. Salscordova
July 23, 2007
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I've finally had a look at the web reports on the conserved sequences. It's difficult to say a lot about the work, because so little is reported (the web page of the PI is pretty useless, and it doesn't seem to have been published yet). What I can say is that there are several hypotheses that would explain the results that wouldn't be a problem for evolutionary biology. Science being science, this is going to be followed up further, so I expect a plausible explanation to be found that doesn't overturn evolutionary biology. Of course, I expect people here to have a different view. Patrick - I agree it's quite possible that Acquiesce is using a different definition of fitness. But I think it's reasonable to expect the technical definition to be used in a discussion of evolution (or at least something close to it). BobBob O'H
July 23, 2007
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Acquiesce - quite simply, there isn’t a reduction in fitness with increasing complexity.
Depends on how you define "fitness". My guess is that you're using it in a specialized sense and Acquiesce is using it in a generalized sense. As in, you're talking past each other due to a difference in meaning.Patrick
July 23, 2007
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But genetics books are not of any use for macro evolution or understanding the origin of complexity.
For that, you need a book like Major Transitions in Evolution. BobBob O'H
July 23, 2007
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Acquiesce - quite simply, there isn't a reduction in fitness with increasing complexity. You seem to be thinking that fitness is a single global measure, so that one can compare any individual to any other, regardless of how similar they are. I'm afraid it simply doesn't work like that: it makes no sense to compare the fitness of a human with (say) a bacterium. They're not competing with each other (they live in very different ecological niches). Hence, you have to ask whether an increase in complexity leads to an increase in fitness as compared to individuals in the same population (i.e. the same species, in the same area). BobBob O'H
July 23, 2007
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Sorry if that was mis-interpreted. It was meant as a silly joke, and not as a taunt at all. Bob
Quite all right. And for the record I appreciate the fact you are posting here. Though we disagree, I've appreciated your courage and willingness to participate in a weblog generally hostile to your ideas. I think the particpants can learn a lot by contact with those on the otherside and gain knowledge about the field. I think there is value in understanding something even if one does not agree. I salute you sir. Salvadorscordova
July 23, 2007
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The argument simply stated is that NS hit a fitness peak with bacteria, and that NS is unable to descend from it, as required for evolution to higher organisms. NS could potentially increase complexity (with constructive mutations) but the direction would only be for further fitness (more surviving offspring). The argument therefore stands alone from the improbability of constructive mutations and does not require the tentative upper probability bound.Acquiesce
July 23, 2007
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Thanks CJYman. Let me chew on that for a day or two while I consult my resources.Joseph
July 23, 2007
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Bob has been asked several times to defend the gradualist approach to evolution and has punted each time. When asked to justify or to point to other than a few trivial examples of mutations for NDE, Bob pointed to a TalkOrigin site with a few examples of trivial mutations. Thus, when we say that Darwinist only point to the trivial, Bob points to the trivial. Now the technical definition of evolution is a change in the allele frequency of a population over time and Bob's examples are examples of a change in a population over time and also include the origin of new alleles but are only very small changes or micro-evolution. None of the debate that surround this issue really denies micro evolution or these trivial examples. So while the proposition of Acquiesce may or may not be true it seems reasonable as gpuccio has pointed out, namely complexity has more places where something can go wrong and also less offspring. Seems a reasonable proposition that they will be less fit in terms of survival. The fossil record seems to back this up. Lots and lots of extinctions but those hard little single celled creatures seem to go marching on like the Eveready Bunny. Acquiesce is also trying to understand how complexity arises and that is a fair question and he is also questioning the point mutation approach which I think is valid. We all question point mutations or any other type of mutation as the source of complexity of novelty. To suggest genetic books is a fatuous reply. Genetic books are excellent examples of micro-evolution but nothing more. They are great when applying some mathematical calculations to figure what happens to a population with all ready existing variations in the various alleles. And as such they are very useful and insightful. But genetics books are not of any use for macro evolution or understanding the origin of complexity. As I just said genetics only discusses how changes appear in a population when those changes are already in the alleles of the population members. There is no example of complexity of novelty arising within the field of genetics, only how what already exists changes proportions. If I am wrong on this then please provide the examples. (I expect there are a few trivial examples of changes such as the anti-freeze protein in Antarctic fish that increase fitness in that environment but trivial changes such as this hardly drive the amazing complexity we witness in the biological world.) If what we are saying is incomplete, then help us understand how to see beyond our blinders.jerry
July 23, 2007
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Gpuccio [83]
Our point could be wrong, but it is our opinion, and it does not imply that we don’t understand darwinian theory. It just means that we don’t agree with it.
Well put. Bob, instead of just questioning our understanding of evolution, show us where our error lies; explain how NS can direct for higher complexity whilst simultaneously selecting for lower fitness. I’m not commited to this argument, if a solution can be found I will abandon it – I will not abandon it however just because someone thinks I lack understanding of evolution theory. The argument, I realise, cuts the heart out of orthodox evolution, but that doesn’t mean it’s wrong. If orthodox evolution theory is science, then it must be tentative. Arguments which go against it must not be ruled out for a circular notion that orthodox evolution theory is ‘truth’ and that all counter arguments are therefore ‘false’.Acquiesce
July 23, 2007
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Bob (to Acquiesce): "It’s clear to me that you don’t understand the theory." I respectfully disagree with you (Bob). One thing is not to understand a theory, another thing not to accept it. I think Acquiesce has a very good point, with which I agree completely, and that point is that increasing complexity implies increasing "weakness", in the sense of exposition to bugs, errors, incomplete control of function, and so on. The only real advantage of increased complexity is the possibility to perform something new. But, in terms of mere survival and fitness, simpler organisms are better, provided that the necessary complexity for efficient survival has been acquired (see bacteria). In other terms, what Acquiesce and I are trying to say is that, in our opinion, the whole evolutionary darwinian theory is based in a false assumption: that increasing complexity provides increasing survival. Our point could be wrong, but it is our opinion, and it does not imply that we don't understand darwinian theory. It just means that we don't agree with it. I don't know, but I feel that beeing adviced to study a basic book seems to be the only answer that darwinists, in recent times, give to my posts. Is it a new discuddion ardument and strategy? That is, each time someone says something you don't like, instead of answering with real counter arguments, just invite him to study grammar, or basic history, or anything else? (By the way, I apologize with Acquiesce for having enclosed him in my discussion without asking. I hope I have not misunderstood his thoughts.)gpuccio
July 23, 2007
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I’m not going to question your understanding of evolution Bob; I trust you can explain to us all how NS can direct for higher complexity whilst simultaneously selecting for lower fitness. Maybe it's in that book you suggested I purchase?Acquiesce
July 23, 2007
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